Saturday severe threat

[starkvegasdawg]

Now that we made it through yesterday it's time to look at our next severe threat. I wish I could say this one was a cut and dry set up but it still has some questions to answer. Some things are clear. The amount of instability available looks to be about the same as yesterday...just over a larger area. There could be a zone of higher instability across northern MS and AL. The amount of wind shear present Saturday will be enormous. Much more than yesterday. Upwards of 80kts or more of shear will be in place. Normally, that would be extremely concerning but due to some other parameters that might be mitigated some. Depending on the model, the winds are coming in parallel to the front which favors a more linear storm structure. That tends to be less favorable for tornadoes as it leads to a messy storm structure. However, the NAM is trending towards a more negatively tilted trough which makes the winds more perpendicular to the front and would cause more discrete cells. If that were to happen then Saturday could be an extremely active day. Just don't know if that will happen or the more linear from the euro and gfs. Even if the more parallel soliton happens, with that amount of shear it will be possible to super cell structures embedded within the line and bowing segments and those will have at least some tornado threat (think the Winfield tornado last night). Hopefully, this all starts to get resolved in the next 24-36 hours. As of right now the SPC has maintained a slight risk but that could easily go to a minimum of enhanced if the NAM solution even partially verifies. If it fully verifies then a moderate risk would likely exist and it's possible you start to see the word outbreak thrown around. Just have to wait and see. Timing for north MS looks to be morning to early afternoon and afternoon to evening for south MS. This could be a little later if the NAM verifies as it would also be slower.

[TNDawg35]

Is there still any chance of winter weather on the back end like originally thought? (Memphis area)

[starkvegasdawg]

Is there still any chance of winter weather on the back end like originally thought? (Memphis area)

A few flurries wouldn't surprise me but I don't look for anything impactful.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has upgraded north MS and AL to an enhanced risk for Saturday. This is due to the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes in the area highlighted by the black hatching below. While the main storm mode will be a strong squall line that will have embedded tornadoes moving through Saturday, in the hatched area discrete supercells are now looking more likely and will have a chance to produce a couple strong to violent possibly long tracked tornadoes Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FH6wKPAWYAYww40?format=jpg&name=900x900

[defiantdog]

SPC has upgraded north MS and AL to an enhanced risk for Saturday. This is due to the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes in the area highlighted by the black hatching below. While the main storm mode will be a strong squall line that will have embedded tornadoes moving through Saturday, in the hatched area discrete supercells are now looking more likely and will have a chance to produce a couple strong to violent possibly long tracked tornadoes Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FH6wKPAWYAYww40?format=jpg&name=900x900

Love how Jackson and Birmingham are as close to the line as you can get.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just looked at the latest HRRR and it is picking up on the discrete supercells quite nicely. Developing them late afternoon over eastern MS and advancing them into central and northern AL after dark. The euro is also on the discrete bandwagon but developing them further west over the MS delta region. If you're in/near the hatched area stay weather aware until you're given the all clear on this system. It looks to have an attitude.

[TNDawg35]

Can you give a round about when it will move through the Memphis area. Got something planned for Sat morning… Thanks!

[starkvegasdawg]

Can you give a round about when it will move through the Memphis area. Got something planned for Sat morning… Thanks!

Per the overnight HRRR late morning to around noon. Could get a passing shower earlier, though. This will update again in an hour or so and I'll take a look then and revise if necessary.

[Cooterpoot]

I mean, 2020 was Covid crazy. 2021 economically horrible. Why not start 2022 with even higher inflation, another Covid outbreak, and some damn tornados followed by sleet after a shitty Liberty Bowl? I'm starting to feel like Job.

[starkvegasdawg]

Allow me to make a selfish request. Relax, it costs nothing. I'm asking any that are willing to go to my chase team YouTube channel and subscribe and to pass the word to others to do the same. We're trying hard to get up to 1,000 subscribers so we can allow ads for revenue and to be able to livestream without the use of a 3rd party app. Storm chasing is a rather expensive venture, especially with gas prices increasing, and right now it all comes 100% out of our own pockets. I would say an average chase costs in the neighborhood of $100 not counting the extra maintenance on vehicles plus equipment. For those of us where every dollar is important that can add up. I know right now we don't have a lot of videos uploaded to our channel but were trying to change that. Also why I'm asking for help here since it costs nothing. We do have a Patreon account for premium content but I'm not hawking it since I won't ask anybody to spend money.

https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississippiStormChasersandSpotters

[parabrave]

Suscribed awhile back/ Enjoy watching it.

[starkvegasdawg]

Suscribed awhile back/ Enjoy watching it.

Thanks so much. And if you don't mind, mention to your friends and family. Ask them to help out the crazy storm chasers in a way that costs nothing.

Everytime we go to chase we're set up to livestream it. Just need storms with a view and daytime. Although I will mention our livestreams are only available through our Patreon account but are then uploaded to our channel after the fact.

[shoeless joe]

Subscribed.

Least I could do for my go to source on severe weather…

[DLGDawg]

Allow me to make a selfish request. Relax, it costs nothing. I'm asking any that are willing to go to my chase team YouTube channel and subscribe and to pass the word to others to do the same. We're trying hard to get up to 1,000 subscribers so we can allow ads for revenue and to be able to livestream without the use of a 3rd party app. Storm chasing is a rather expensive venture, especially with gas prices increasing, and right now it all comes 100% out of our own pockets. I would say an average chase costs in the neighborhood of $100 not counting the extra maintenance on vehicles plus equipment. For those of us where every dollar is important that can add up. I know right now we don't have a lot of videos uploaded to our channel but were trying to change that. Also why I'm asking for help here since it costs nothing. We do have a Patreon account for premium content but I'm not hawking it since I won't ask anybody to spend money.

https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississippiStormChasersandSpotters

Done. Really appreciate your weather reports. My wife will ask me...is it supposed to get bad tonight....I tell her I'm waiting on Starkvegasdawg to update. She's like, huh??? LOL

[State82]

Subscribed. Really enjoy your work. Thanks.

[DownwardDawg]

So, for your favorite Nashville area Dawg, am I north of the highest risk or dead center. I'm west Nashville, Bellevue area.

[starkvegasdawg]

So, for your favorite Nashville area Dawg, am I north of the highest risk or dead center. I'm west Nashville, Bellevue area.

Nashville is currently included. All going to depend on how far the unstable air can reach. Right now in Starkville it's mid 70's and humid.

[Dawg_Lover]

SPC has upgraded north MS and AL to an enhanced risk for Saturday. This is due to the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes in the area highlighted by the black hatching below. While the main storm mode will be a strong squall line that will have embedded tornadoes moving through Saturday, in the hatched area discrete supercells are now looking more likely and will have a chance to produce a couple strong to violent possibly long tracked tornadoes Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FH6wKPAWYAYww40?format=jpg&name=900x900


Bare with me, for I am about to ask a dumb question. What is a hatching or black hatching area, and for this round of storms, where is it located?

[starkvegasdawg]

Bare with me, for I am about to ask a dumb question. What is a hatching or black hatching area, and for this round of storms, where is it located?
The hatching is the black lined area in the graph. It means a greater chance of strong to violent tornadoes.

To be specific the yellow area is a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point. The hatched area is at least a 10% chance of a EF-2 or stronger tornado within 25 miles of any given point.

[Dawg_Lover]

The hatching is the black lined area in the graph. It means a greater chance of strong to violent tornadoes.

To be specific the yellow area is a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point. The hatched area is at least a 10% chance of a EF-2 or stronger tornado within 25 miles of any given point.


Thanks for the info, SVD. And, I am now a proud subscriber of your YouTube channel. 😃

[TNDawg35]

Subscribed!

[starkvegasdawg]

Again, thank all of you so much. When I was typing out my request to the places I posted it I was honestly hoping to maybe pick up 30 or 40 subscribers. As of right now we've picked up 185 and still going. Still a ways from 1,000 but y'all have put a considerable dent in it and for that I'm truly thankful. As I said in my original post I'm not going to link or ask people to join our Patreon site as I will not ask for money. Y'all responding as you have to this is extremely helpful, but if any are interested just shoot me a DM and I will give the details.

[Noxdog]

Again, thank all of you so much. When I was typing out my request to the places I posted it I was honestly hoping to maybe pick up 30 or 40 subscribers. As of right now we've picked up 185 and still going. Still a ways from 1,000 but y'all have put a considerable dent in it and for that I'm truly thankful. As I said in my original post I'm not going to link or ask people to join our Patreon site as I will not ask for money. Y'all responding as you have to this is extremely helpful, but if any are interested just shoot me a DM and I will give the details.

Is there a more detailed map that shows the hatched areas?

[Commercecomet24]

Subscribed. Thanks for all you do! I'm gonna get all family to subscribe too. My youngest daughter is a weather junkie.

[starkvegasdawg]

Is there a more detailed map that shows the hatched areas?

Our team cofounder handles all of our graphics. I just post what's disseminated by the SPC and COD. Here is what he made for our Patreon site.

3306

https://www.elitedawgs.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=3306&d=1640982472

[starkvegasdawg]

Subscribed. Thanks for all you do! I'm gonna get all family to subscribe too. My youngest daughter is a weather junkie.

Much appreciated. We're trying to expand what all we do but having to take baby steps.

[defiantdog]

Our team cofounder handles all of our graphics. I just post what's disseminated by the SPC and COD. Here is what he made for our Patreon site.

3306

https://www.elitedawgs.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=3306&d=1640982472
That damn avocado

[Commercecomet24]

Much appreciated. We're trying to expand what all we do but having to take baby steps.

Your info is invaluable to me. Wishing for much success for y'all!

[RocketDawg]

I subscribed as well.

[Churchill]

I'm in. What people need to know that chasers do a lot more than just thrill seeking to entertain themselves and others. They are an invaluable source of real time information to first responders. law enforcement and weather broadcasters...among other things.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm in. What people need to know that chasers do a lot more than just thrill seeking to entertain themselves and others. They are an invaluable source of real time information to first responders. law enforcement and weather broadcasters...among other things.

We do. I chase with chains to help clear roads and a first aid kit. And before the spring season I hope to have my chainsaw fixed and bringing it with me to help clear roads to help facilitate first responders get in faster. My chase partner (Mjoelner on this board) and I helped clear debris from the highway in Tishomingo when the tornado hit there.

[defiantdog]

We do. I chase with chains to help clear roads and a first aid kit. And before the spring season I hope to have my chainsaw fixed and bringing it with me to help clear roads to help facilitate first responders get in faster. My chase partner (Mjoelner on this board) and I helped clear debris from the highway in Tishomingo when the tornado hit there.
Where are you setting up tomorrow? Tupelo?

[starkvegasdawg]

Where are you setting up tomorrow? Tupelo?

Still to be decided. I'll look at the hi res models tonight and in the morning and see what things like like. But as of right now Somewhere on 45 looks likely. Don't want to get too far west and get out of position like Wednesday. If discrete storms form they are going to be moving close to 60mph so don't want to be too far south either.

[starkvegasdawg]

I talked to our team and in appreciation for all the new subscribers, any livestream tomorrow will be on the YouTube channel and not behind the Patreon paywall. This is a one time only thing so hopefully we get some good daytime storms.

[defiantdog]

I talked to our team and in appreciation for all the new subscribers, any livestream tomorrow will be on the YouTube channel and not behind the Patreon paywall. This is a one time only thing so hopefully we get some good daytime storms.
Thanks man, but hopefully we don't get too many severe storms.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks man, but hopefully we don't get too many severe storms.

I want one good storm with a tornado on the ground and I want it over open country side away from homes.

[RocketDawg]

There were 4 confirmed tornadoes in Alabama with the storm system that just went through. The worst was in Winfield, not far from the Mississippi line.

I don't know if any of them had warnings issued. If they did, I just missed them.

[defiantdog]

There were 4 confirmed tornadoes in Alabama with the storm system that just went through. The worst was in Winfield, not far from the Mississippi line.

I don't know if any of them had warnings issued. If they did, I just missed them.
It was only an ef1..... Tomorrow will probably be more severe

[starkvegasdawg]

It was only an ef1..... Tomorrow will probably be more severe

All going to depend on the cap. If a storm tomorrow can overcome the cap then it has an excellent chance of going severe and dropping a danger noodle.

[Cooterpoot]

Now that Betty White has been taken from us, I fully expect a massive explosion of tornadoes and locus, followed by hail and fire.

[msstate7]

Am I gonna be ok in house, ms?

[RocketDawg]

It was only an ef1..... Tomorrow will probably be more severe

Yes, almost certainly will be worse tomorrow.

[starkvegasdawg]

Am I gonna be ok in house, ms?

Not exactly sure where that is, but the thing to remember is even in a massive outbreak, most people are not affected. Tornadoes are very small in relation to the land. The odds of any one area being impacted is very small.

[RocketDawg]

Am I gonna be ok in house, ms?

Are you talking about the town of House? I grew up in Meridian, and remember a time in the late '50s, possibly early '60s, when a UFO supposedly landed in or near House. It was all the talk on the radio at the time (I'm assuming House must be near Meridian) - "a cigar-shaped craft covered the entire road". Does that ring a bell?

[msstate7]

Not exactly sure where that is, but the thing to remember is even in a massive outbreak, most people are not affected. Tornadoes are very small in relation to the land. The odds of any one area being impacted is very small.

Community between Philadelphia and meridian on hwy 19

[msstate7]

Are you talking about the town of House? I grew up in Meridian, and remember a time in the late '50s, possibly early '60s, when a UFO supposedly landed in or near House. It was all the talk on the radio at the time (I'm assuming House must be near Meridian) - "a cigar-shaped craft covered the entire road". Does that ring a bell?

House is about 14 miles from Collierville on hwy 19

[starkvegasdawg]

Community between Philadelphia and meridian on hwy 19

You're probably right on the edge as it stands now. I think the worst will probably be north of you.

[RocketDawg]

House is about 14 miles from Collierville on hwy 19

Collinsville?

[RocketDawg]

From the overhead shot, looks like a lot of fans have left the stadium. Maybe they're just getting a jump on halftime.

[msstate7]

Collinsville?

Yes, auto correct

[RocketDawg]

Kirby looked like he was about to have a stroke. Worse than Saban ....

[Pancho]

he could have called a timeout

[DownwardDawg]

Nashville is currently included. All going to depend on how far the unstable air can reach. Right now in Starkville it's mid 70's and humid.

Thank you brother. Keep West Nashville in your forecasts please. I come here first for my severe weather information.
I'll spread the word and see if I can help you get subscribers.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thank you brother. Keep West Nashville in your forecasts please. I come here first for my severe weather information.
I'll spread the word and see if I can help you get subscribers.

Many thanks. I'm still floored by the response I've gotten. We've picked up over 300 new subscribers today.

[DownwardDawg]

he could have called a timeout

Are y'all lost? This is a tornado thread.

[Commercecomet24]

Many thanks. I'm still floored by the response I've gotten. We've picked up over 300 new subscribers today.

Man we got to get you to a 1000. Keep us posted on the numbers. We need to get you there.

[DownwardDawg]

Man we got to get you to a 1000. Keep us posted on the numbers. We need to get you there.

Just sent his channel to some folks I work with.

[starkvegasdawg]

Man we got to get you to a 1000. Keep us posted on the numbers. We need to get you there.

Woke up this morning at 215. Now sitting at 540. I'll be doing a video tonight after the spc update at midnight. Not sure when it'll get posted on the site. I'm guessing tomorrow morning sometime. It'll basically be me going over the latest info and giving my thoughts on the set up. I'm hearing some grumblings of a possible upgrade to a moderate risk but I'm not sold on that unless some of the negatives working against a big time event are working themselves out.

[Commercecomet24]

Just sent his channel to some folks I work with.

I'm gonna send the link to some more too.

[starkvegasdawg]

I should have known the msu family would come through for me.

[defiantdog]

Woke up this morning at 215. Now sitting at 540. I'll be doing a video tonight after the spc update at midnight. Not sure when it'll get posted on the site. I'm guessing tomorrow morning sometime. It'll basically be me going over the latest info and giving my thoughts on the set up. I'm hearing some grumblings of a possible upgrade to a moderate risk but I'm not sold on that unless some of the negatives working against a big time event are working themselves out.
I expect the northern half of AL and southern to mid to TN to go moderate at the least.

[starkvegasdawg]

I expect the northern half of AL and southern to mid to TN to go moderate at the least.

I'm thinking if there is a mod risk it would be NE MS into NW AL and then into central TN. A Starkville to Birmingham to Nashville to Oxford area.

[Commercecomet24]

I should have known the msu family would come through for me.

Gotta help you get there! You provide us so much great info and it's invaluable!

[DownwardDawg]

What's the timeline? My son plays downtown Nashville at Tootsies from 2-6pm. What we looking like??

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the timeline? My son plays downtown Nashville at Tootsies from 2-6pm. What we looking like??

I would say any time after 3:00pm I'd be keeping tabs on things. It may be later for the Nashville region but I'm not sure. As of last look storms look to start developing over MS around 1-2pm and then race off NE at 50-70mph. With discrete cells, if they form, you can't really give a timeline because they can form anywhere in the warm sector. There's no squall line you can track out. The first storm may form near Jackson and the second one at Pontotoc.

[Homedawg]

I'm thinking if there is a mod risk it would be NE MS into NW AL and then into central TN. A Starkville to Birmingham to Nashville to Oxford area.

Thanks for keeping us updated!

[defiantdog]

I would say any time after 3:00pm I'd be keeping tabs on things. It may be later for the Nashville region but I'm not sure. As of last look storms look to start developing over MS around 1-2pm and then race off NE at 50-70mph. With discrete cells, if they form, you can't really give a timeline because they can form anywhere in the warm sector. There's no squall line you can track out. The first storm may form near Jackson and the second one at Pontotoc.
What do you think about Memphis..... They don't typically get big tornados.

[starkvegasdawg]

What do you think about Memphis..... They don't typically get big tornados.

I think their main concern will be from the qlcs, or squall line, when it comes through. There will be embedded tornadic circulations within it but main threat will be straight line winds. The biggest tornadic concern will be from the discrete cells that fire ahead of the line. Right now that looks to be east MS into AL.

[DownwardDawg]

I just got hit with tornado watch. Davidson county Tennessee.

[starkvegasdawg]

I just got hit with tornado watch. Davidson county Tennessee.

Yeah. I don't think tonight will be a big event but after those two pop up storms in GA today that produced tornadoes I'll never say never. The atmosphere is extremely volatile right now.

[SilentSteel16]

Just subscribed as well. Thanks as always for the heads up and y’all be safe out there.

[DeltaChicagoDog]

Allow me to make a selfish request. Relax, it costs nothing. I'm asking any that are willing to go to my chase team YouTube channel and subscribe and to pass the word to others to do the same. We're trying hard to get up to 1,000 subscribers so we can allow ads for revenue and to be able to livestream without the use of a 3rd party app. Storm chasing is a rather expensive venture, especially with gas prices increasing, and right now it all comes 100% out of our own pockets. I would say an average chase costs in the neighborhood of $100 not counting the extra maintenance on vehicles plus equipment. For those of us where every dollar is important that can add up. I know right now we don't have a lot of videos uploaded to our channel but were trying to change that. Also why I'm asking for help here since it costs nothing. We do have a Patreon account for premium content but I'm not hawking it since I won't ask anybody to spend money.

https://youtube.com/c/NorthMississippiStormChasersandSpotters

Done

[MetEdDawg]

For those in Central Alabama, we are getting the rare but always interesting forecast discrepancy between our local NWS and the Storm Prediction Center.

The SPC maintains an enhanced risk down through a good portion of central AL. The local Bham NWS trimmed the enhanced risk area back considerably for the central Alabama warning area and even mentioned in their forecast product they considered removing it entirely due to the limiting factors out ahead of the line that might limit the development of discrete cells.

I'll be interested to see if the SPC holds on or if they make some changes at the 7:30 AM update. But it's always interesting when local NWS offices buck the bigger SPC trends. I will say our Bham NWS office is as good as they come. I've had a chance to work with some of those folks when I shadowed there and they know what the heck they are doing.

[defiantdog]

For those in Central Alabama, we are getting the rare but always interesting forecast discrepancy between our local NWS and the Storm Prediction Center.

The SPC maintains an enhanced risk down through a good portion of central AL. The local Bham NWS trimmed the enhanced risk area back considerably for the central Alabama warning area and even mentioned in their forecast product they considered removing it entirely due to the limiting factors out ahead of the line that might limit the development of discrete cells.

I'll be interested to see if the SPC holds on or if they make some changes at the 7:30 AM update. But it's always interesting when local NWS offices buck the bigger SPC trends. I will say our Bham NWS office is as good as they come. I've had a chance to work with some of those folks when I shadowed there and they know what the heck they are doing.
The SPC has lowered it to slight in Bham now..... Interesting.

[MetEdDawg]

The SPC has lowered it to slight in Bham now..... Interesting.

Definitely seeing a cap that could prevent discrete cells out in front of the main cold front. Latest runs of the HRRR and higher resolution NAM models show that discrete cells should be contained to the upper 1/3 of AL.

So I think it makes sense.