Quaoarsking
12-29-2021, 11:20 AM
Maybe I should wait a couple more days for the sting of yesterday to dissipate a little, but I thought I'd go ahead and post his path to the records.
TLDR: Rogers is well ahead of pace to be the most prolific passer in college football history.
I don't know if Rogers will be our starter in 2022, 2023, and 2024, but I'll be showing what he needs to do on a per game level with 39 more games to go. When I talk about "pace" I'm just multiplying his 2021 stats by 4 and adding in 2020 on top of that. Obviously I hope he improves, and I hope we play more than 13 games per year, winning SEC titles and playoffs
Also, don't ever let an Ole Miss fan make you feel bad if Rogers sets records playing for 5 years because Case Keenum and Timmy Chang played for 5 years after getting a medical redshirt in a year they threw for over 1,000 yards.
Completions
I'm not a huge fan of this stat, since it includes negative yardage completions, which I think should be a different stat. I don't really know how Rogers compares in what % of his passes go for negative or no gain, but I suspect it's higher than others high on this list
The record is Case Keenum with 1,546. Roger's had 505 this year (38.8 per game). He has 744 in his career (already a school record), and will only need 20.6 per game to break the record. He's on pace to obliterate this record with 2,259 and would break it the middle of 2023.
The single season record is only 512 completions with Graham Harrell in 2007. Will could've had that with a little better game last night. I'm hoping we run a little more and cut down on the 0-yard dumpoffs, so maybe he doesn't ever break this record.
The single game record is 58 (or 64 counting D2). Will's highest was 50 this year against Memphis. I'd give him a decent chance to break this at some point, just because we'll probably get in a shootout.
Yards
The record for passing yards is Case Keenum with 19,217. I previously thought this record would stand for a long tim, but I think Will has a good shot if he starts 39 more times. He's at 6,715, so he'll need 320.6 yards per game to get it. He had 364.5 this year. He is on "pace" for 20,932.
Rogers finished 2nd nationally this year with 4,739 yards (unless Bryce Young passes him). He finished second to WKU's Bailey Zappe, with an ungodly 5,967 yards to break the record. I just don't see Rogers ever getting this high in a 13-game season against mostly SEC defenses. It would take 459/game, which is more than he's ever had in his career.
The single game record is 734 by Connor Halliday and Patrick Mahomes. (736 if you include D3). Rogers' career high is 440 against Ole Miss in 2020. I don't see him ever approaching a game like this, but it should be pointed out that 7 of the 21 times an FBS QB has gone for over 600 yards, it was a Leach team.
Touchdowns
Case Keenum also holds this record with 155. Rogers is at 47, meaning he needs 2.8 per game to get there. 2.8 per game is what he had in 2021, and he is on "pace" for 155 exactly.
The single season record was also set this year by Zappe with 62. To do that in a 13 game season, Will would need 4.7 per game(!)
The single game record is 11, by David Klingler in 1989.
Also of note is the record for career completion percentage already belongs to Roger's at 72.3%. Hopefully he doesn't lose this one in the future. Colt Brennan is second at 70.4%.
So that's the story on Rogers. If he can stay healthy, keep the starting job, play 39 more games, and keep producing at this level (none of which are guarantees), he will own the NCAA record book.
And for the finale, I'll shift players to one that may not be on anyone's radar. Jo'quavious Marks has 143 career receptions and is on "pace" for 392. The NCAA record is 399 (Zay Jones). I don't know if we keep Mark's through 2024, but I bet Moorhead never told him during the recruiting process that he might make a run at a receiving record.
TLDR: Rogers is well ahead of pace to be the most prolific passer in college football history.
I don't know if Rogers will be our starter in 2022, 2023, and 2024, but I'll be showing what he needs to do on a per game level with 39 more games to go. When I talk about "pace" I'm just multiplying his 2021 stats by 4 and adding in 2020 on top of that. Obviously I hope he improves, and I hope we play more than 13 games per year, winning SEC titles and playoffs
Also, don't ever let an Ole Miss fan make you feel bad if Rogers sets records playing for 5 years because Case Keenum and Timmy Chang played for 5 years after getting a medical redshirt in a year they threw for over 1,000 yards.
Completions
I'm not a huge fan of this stat, since it includes negative yardage completions, which I think should be a different stat. I don't really know how Rogers compares in what % of his passes go for negative or no gain, but I suspect it's higher than others high on this list
The record is Case Keenum with 1,546. Roger's had 505 this year (38.8 per game). He has 744 in his career (already a school record), and will only need 20.6 per game to break the record. He's on pace to obliterate this record with 2,259 and would break it the middle of 2023.
The single season record is only 512 completions with Graham Harrell in 2007. Will could've had that with a little better game last night. I'm hoping we run a little more and cut down on the 0-yard dumpoffs, so maybe he doesn't ever break this record.
The single game record is 58 (or 64 counting D2). Will's highest was 50 this year against Memphis. I'd give him a decent chance to break this at some point, just because we'll probably get in a shootout.
Yards
The record for passing yards is Case Keenum with 19,217. I previously thought this record would stand for a long tim, but I think Will has a good shot if he starts 39 more times. He's at 6,715, so he'll need 320.6 yards per game to get it. He had 364.5 this year. He is on "pace" for 20,932.
Rogers finished 2nd nationally this year with 4,739 yards (unless Bryce Young passes him). He finished second to WKU's Bailey Zappe, with an ungodly 5,967 yards to break the record. I just don't see Rogers ever getting this high in a 13-game season against mostly SEC defenses. It would take 459/game, which is more than he's ever had in his career.
The single game record is 734 by Connor Halliday and Patrick Mahomes. (736 if you include D3). Rogers' career high is 440 against Ole Miss in 2020. I don't see him ever approaching a game like this, but it should be pointed out that 7 of the 21 times an FBS QB has gone for over 600 yards, it was a Leach team.
Touchdowns
Case Keenum also holds this record with 155. Rogers is at 47, meaning he needs 2.8 per game to get there. 2.8 per game is what he had in 2021, and he is on "pace" for 155 exactly.
The single season record was also set this year by Zappe with 62. To do that in a 13 game season, Will would need 4.7 per game(!)
The single game record is 11, by David Klingler in 1989.
Also of note is the record for career completion percentage already belongs to Roger's at 72.3%. Hopefully he doesn't lose this one in the future. Colt Brennan is second at 70.4%.
So that's the story on Rogers. If he can stay healthy, keep the starting job, play 39 more games, and keep producing at this level (none of which are guarantees), he will own the NCAA record book.
And for the finale, I'll shift players to one that may not be on anyone's radar. Jo'quavious Marks has 143 career receptions and is on "pace" for 392. The NCAA record is 399 (Zay Jones). I don't know if we keep Mark's through 2024, but I bet Moorhead never told him during the recruiting process that he might make a run at a receiving record.