Hesitant to post this early as confidence very low

[starkvegasdawg]

But due to the timing I am. Last few days the GFS has been pretty consistent showing at least a marginal severe threat for New Year's Eve. I'm still pretty skeptical but when it gets as warm as it's going to get the next few days here in late December that usually comes at a cost. There's also hints at a pattern shift and cold weather coming in and when you go from record warmth to cold that also can hint at severe weather. Please, don't cancel any plans but just keep this tucked away in the back of your mind.

[Maroonthirteen]

Yeah, almost 80 degrees on Christmas Day..... I was wondering when the other shoe would drop.

Please please stay warm and dry through the Liberty bowl day.

[DAWG1903]

I always appreciate the heads-up you provide. Thank you and Merry Christmas.

[donald igwebuike]

But due to the timing I am. Last few days the GFS has been pretty consistent showing at least a marginal severe threat for New Year's Eve. I'm still pretty skeptical but when it gets as warm as it's going to get the next few days here in late December that usually comes at a cost. There's also hints at a pattern shift and cold weather coming in and when you go from record warmth to cold that also can hint at severe weather. Please, don't cancel any plans but just keep this tucked away in the back of your mind.

and slowing down progressive weather. Don't think its panned out 1x

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the latest discussion from the SPC regarding middle to late week next week:

...Beyond Day 6...
The chances for more significant severe weather will increase beyond Day 6. Most guidance suggests 70 degree dewpoints across the entire Gulf of Mexico by D6/Tue. This is anomalously high Gulf moisture content for this time of year and will set the stage for severe weather potential. The exact magnitude of any severe weather threat will depend on the evolution of the upper-level and surface pattern, but with a broad warm sector in place across the Southeast and mid-Mississippi Valley it is more likely than not that there will eventually be a severe weather episode somewhere from the Southeast into the Midwest/Great Lakes.

[Turfdawg67]

But has PHGdawg gone out and looked at the sky? We need his second opinion. ***

[cujo]

But has PHGdawg gone out and looked at the sky? We need his second opinion. ***

?due to COVID?
Thanks for the heads up

[99jc]

But due to the timing I am. Last few days the GFS has been pretty consistent showing at least a marginal severe threat for New Year's Eve. I'm still pretty skeptical but when it gets as warm as it's going to get the next few days here in late December that usually comes at a cost. There's also hints at a pattern shift and cold weather coming in and when you go from record warmth to cold that also can hint at severe weather. Please, don't cancel any plans but just keep this tucked away in the back of your mind.

Please go away until June...I just got back from Kentucky! Would you be interested in a one-way ticket to Afghanistan for the winter. JUST sayin :):cool:

[Bdawg]

Please go away until June...I just got back from Kentucky! Would you be interested in a one-way ticket to Afghanistan for the winter. JUST sayin :):cool:

Glad you back for Christmas!!

[Dolphus Raymond]

We desperately need rain and cold weather. But.....

[parabrave]

GFS has been pretty consistent about the strong storms along the Miss/Tenn border. The jet stream looks like it goes bottoms out around Vicksburg and the jet goes up along the River.

[starkvegasdawg]

And here we go. SPC has now outlined a severe threat for next Wednesday. Still too early to know exact threat levels. Currently, the Euro is trending towards a more significant threat while the gfs is a more subdued threat. Usually, my money is on the euro but that is to be determined.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FHc4eTVWQAIH55f?format=jpg&name=900x900

[parabrave]

Latest GFS has the main severe threat to the north along the Tenn KY border area. Of course subject to change in 6 hrs.

[ArrowDawg]

And here we go. SPC has now outlined a severe threat for next Wednesday. Still too early to know exact threat levels. Currently, the Euro is trending towards a more significant threat while the gfs is a more subdued threat. Usually, my money is on the euro but that is to be determined.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FHc4eTVWQAIH55f?format=jpg&name=900x900

I'm far more interested in New Year's weekend.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm far more interested in New Year's weekend.

Yeah, that's looking like it has potential, too. Just taking them one at a time.

[Dolphus Raymond]

I just want some cold weather, because the duck hunting currently sucks.

[starkvegasdawg]

In addition to the severe threat Wednesday, SPC has now also mentioned the possibility of a significant severe weather threat next weekend. There's still some differences among the models so they haven't outlined a threat area yet, but expect it to be anywhere from the southern plains into the Deep South. This would be the threat I mentioned in my original post.

[Maroonthirteen]

Well damn.......... 60% chance of rain and 20mph winds Tuesday in Memphis???? Is that what you are seeing forecasted?

Maybe that changes between now and then.

[starkvegasdawg]

Well damn.......... 60% chance of rain and 20mph winds Tuesday in Memphis???? Is that what you are seeing forecasted?

Maybe that changes between now and then.

This week is looking very active weather and wind wise. I was trying to pick a couple days to go deer hunt. Best days looking like Thursday and Friday.

Next weekend is starting to get some attention in the weather world. There's some indications we're about to see a pattern flip to colder weather and a big severe threat may be the price we pay. But not really focusing on that yet. First threat is Wednesday so getting through it before looking at next weekend.

[defiantdog]

Seems like 2011 all over again with this weather

[Dolphus Raymond]

I can?t ever recall the weather being this warm and dry in December for such a stretch.

[Maroonthirteen]

I was poorly asking if the sever Wednesday weather is am or pm?

I assume Wednesday am As the Liberty bowl game time forecast gets worse as we move closer to Tuesday.

[starkvegasdawg]

I was poorly asking if the sever Wednesday weather is am or pm?

I assume Wednesday am As the Liberty bowl game time forecast gets worse as we move closer to Tuesday.

Wednesday looks to be afternoon/evening as it stands now.

[DesotoDog1967]

I tried to post a thread but couldn't.

What does the Liberty bowl weather look like?

Thanks

[defiantdog]

Wednesday looks to be afternoon/evening as it stands now.
The European model doesn't look as bad for this weekend now.

ETA: NVM..... Was looking at Saturday and not Sunday. This isn't gonna be fun.

[Noxdog]

This week is looking very active weather and wind wise. I was trying to pick a couple days to go deer hunt. Best days looking like Thursday and Friday.

Next weekend is starting to get some attention in the weather world. There's some indications we're about to see a pattern flip to colder weather and a big severe threat may be the price we pay. But not really focusing on that yet. First threat is Wednesday so getting through it before looking at next weekend.

"may be the price we pay", do you mean Tornadic weather or Ice storm??

Keep keep mentioning a threat of ice storms soon? Hyperbole?

[defiantdog]

"may be the price we pay", do you mean Tornadic weather or Ice storm??

Keep keep mentioning a threat of ice storms soon? Hyperbole?
Depends on where you are

[Noxdog]

Depends on where you are

Is it really that fine a line?

[DesotoDog1967]

What does the Liberty Bowl weather look like? Thanks

[defiantdog]

Is it really that fine a line?
No..... Didn't know if you were in a different state

[starkvegasdawg]

"may be the price we pay", do you mean Tornadic weather or Ice storm??

Keep keep mentioning a threat of ice storms soon? Hyperbole?

Price we pay as in severe weather. Memphis NWS did mention a possibility of wintry weather for its area Sunday as the cold air filters in but I'm certainly not holding my breath on that for this area.

I was just looking at some forecast soundings from the NAM for the Wednesday event and it's showing potential for potentially tornadic storms late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Just have to see how it trends and what sort of model agreement we get as sometimes the NAM can be the overhyping model.

[Noxdog]

Price we pay as in severe weather. Memphis NWS did mention a possibility of wintry weather for its area Sunday as the cold air filters in but I'm certainly not holding my breath on that for this area.

I was just looking at some forecast soundings from the NAM for the Wednesday event and it's showing potential for potentially tornadic storms late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Just have to see how it trends and what sort of model agreement we get as sometimes the NAM can be the overhyping model.

To you and defiant.

[starkvegasdawg]

A threat area has now been outlined for this Saturday, too. Almost identical to the Wednesday threat area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FHm2ZKGXMAMPl6Z?format=jpg&name=900x900

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC is now saying storms could go severe mid to late morning across parts of southern AR and northern LA and wind profiles suggest discrete supercells with a tornado threat. There is still some disagreement on how far east that threat goes due to discrepancy in model output on upper level winds. It could evolve into a squall line and overall weaken. Still to be determined. For whatever portion of the warm sector look to stay primed I expect an upgrade to at least an enhanced threat level.

[shoeless joe]

SPC is now saying storms could go severe mid to late morning across parts of southern AR and northern LA and wind profiles suggest discrete supercells with a tornado threat. There is still some disagreement on how far east that threat goes due to discrepancy in model output on upper level winds. It could evolve into a squall line and overall weaken. Still to be determined. For whatever portion of the warm sector look to stay primed I expect an upgrade to at least an enhanced threat level.

For Wednesday?

[starkvegasdawg]

For Wednesday?

Yes. That said, I expect the same for Saturday, too.

[defiantdog]

Yes. That said, I expect the same for Saturday, too.
Saturday looks to be more defined and better layout for stronger storms. Either way, North MS, northern Alabama, and all of TN look to be the most affected on Wednesday. Saturday looks to be a crap shoot at this point. Night storms are the worst.

[TNDawg35]

If I don’t have ice or snow North of Memphis, I’m moving to Alaska…

[Bdawg]

I just want some cold weather, because the duck hunting currently sucks.

All the hunting sucks!! Worst winter for hunting in a while.

[starkvegasdawg]

And just to add to the fun, both gfs and euro now saying snow for north MS early next week.

[defiantdog]

And just to add to the fun, both gfs and euro now saying snow for north MS early next week.
80 degree weather to lows in the 20s..... Sunday is looking to be an interesting day.

[parabrave]

80 degree weather to lows in the 20s..... Sunday is looking to be an interesting day.

And Downward moved from the HWY 84 Tornado corridor to the North Mississippi crappy weather area.

[DownwardDawg]

And Downward moved from the HWY 84 Tornado corridor to the North Mississippi crappy weather area.

Lol. Yeah, the severe weather here has sucked so far!!!! Dangit

[RocketDawg]

80 degree weather to lows in the 20s..... Sunday is looking to be an interesting day.

There was an F-4 tornado here about 4:30 in the afternoon, November 1989. During the day highs were lower 80s; later that evening it was snowing. 22, I believe, were killed.

[Saltydog]

Just found out I'm going to be able to get off Tuesday so I'm now thinking of riding to Mempho. I live in the Tupelo area and would drive up Tuesday afternoon. What's the latest for North MS to Memphis corridor?

[Pancho]

U are good for Tuesday. Wednesday might be another issue.

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Just found out I'm going to be able to get off Tuesday so I'm now thinking of riding to Mempho. I live in the Tupelo area and would drive up Tuesday afternoon. What's the latest for North MS to Memphis corridor?
North Ms Corridor should be good, when you cross the state line beware of Gang Bangers, Car Jackers and Lot Lizards.

[Saltydog]

North Ms Corridor should be good, when you cross the state line beware of Gang Bangers, Car Jackers and Lot Lizards.

No doubt. I pretty well know my way around Memphis. There are no "good" places. Just some places that are worse than others. I never stop anywhere on Lamar.

[Pancho]

No doubt. I pretty well know my way around Memphis. There are no "good" places. Just some places that are worse than others. I never stop anywhere on Lamar.

Ain't no lie about that.

[starkvegasdawg]

This is a simulated radar from the HRRR for Wednesday afternoon around 4:00. If storms materialize similar to this then I'll be concerned as this would be a group of discrete supercells that would almost assuredly be severe and some likely tornadic. That said, the local NWS offices are all far from sold on the Wednesday event as even this close in there are still significant model discrepancies. Hopefully, things become a lot clearer tomorrow.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FHqN1SGXsAAejC2?format=jpg&name=medium

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest SPC update has kept the slight risk but mentioned they are considering an upgrade to enhanced if current trends continue. If the enhanced upgrade occurs, it will be for an increased tornado risk and allowing for the possibility of strong tornadoes. Looking at the latest HRRR I can't help but think this happens as it still shows several discrete supercells in an environment primed for severe storms and tornadoes. Next update is around 11:30 this morning. At that time I am probably going to create a new thread just for Wednesday and leave this one for the Saturday severe event and the cold air intrusion afterwards until closer to time.

[starkvegasdawg]

The SPC has maintained the current slight risk for Saturday. They've also added a slight risk for Friday to include extreme NW MS. Even though they kept the slight for Saturday the wording they used is concerning. I'd be willing to bet the threat is upgraded to at least enhanced before we get to Saturday. While not yet certain, things are trying to shape up for a significant event for Saturday.

As for the white death following all the severe weather, the models are starting to back off that. But then don't they always?

[defiantdog]

Latest SPC update has kept the slight risk but mentioned they are considering an upgrade to enhanced if current trends continue. If the enhanced upgrade occurs, it will be for an increased tornado risk and allowing for the possibility of strong tornadoes. Looking at the latest HRRR I can't help but think this happens as it still shows several discrete supercells in an environment primed for severe storms and tornadoes. Next update is around 11:30 this morning. At that time I am probably going to create a new thread just for Wednesday and leave this one for the Saturday severe event and the cold air intrusion afterwards until closer to time.

Looks like an enhanced risk might be given to the areas between tupelo and Memphis at 3pm.

[starkvegasdawg]

Looks like an enhanced risk might be given to the areas between tupelo and Memphis at 3pm.

I'm expecting that even though the last run of the NAM3K backed off the discrete cells some. Fish out in an hour when I'm eating lunch at China Garden before taking my son to see Spider-Man.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has left the slight risk and not upgraded for tomorrow. Models are now showing a weaker system than originally forecast.

[defiantdog]

SPC has left the slight risk and not upgraded for tomorrow. Models are now showing a weaker system than originally forecast.
Which is good..... They moved the increased risk line up as well.