Severe weather now looking likely Friday afternoon through Friday night

[starkvegasdawg]

Primary threat looks to be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes starting Friday afternoon and into the overnight hours. There's still some uncertainty as to how much instability will be present but wind shear looks to be damaging n abundance. If instability looks to be higher than currently forecast and discrete cells can maintain, then look for the severe threat to be increased as the tornado threat will also increase. However, even once this system goes linear, the amount of shear will keep embedded spin up tornadoes with in the line possible. As we draw closer to the event, these finer details will come into focus, but a nocturnal severe threat is now looking likely.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0830.gif

[Extendedcab]

Ugh!!!!!

[Cooterpoot]

Mostly up north?

[starkvegasdawg]

Mostly up north?

Right now I'd say the worst will be around the middle third. The best dynamics will be to the north and the best instability to the south. Right in the middle should be the best of both worlds. Maybe just south of the middle.

[Cooterpoot]

Right now I'd say the worst will be around the middle third. The best dynamics will be to the north and the best instability to the south. Right in the middle should be the best of both worlds. Maybe just south of the middle.

So around I20 I'm guessing? Since I moved toward the coast a couple months ago, it's mostly stayed above me. Hope this does.

[TNDawg35]

What’s rain totals looking like from Memphis to Corinth areas?

[starkvegasdawg]

So around I20 I'm guessing? Since I moved toward the coast a couple months ago, it's mostly stayed above me. Hope this does.

If I were guessing right now I'd guess Greenville to Memphis and Pine Bluff to Grenada.

[starkvegasdawg]

What’s rain totals looking like from Memphis to Corinth areas?
Most areas probably around 1/2" but if you get under some discrete cells then a couple isolated areas getting 1-2" wouldn't surprise me.

[starkvegasdawg]

While it's still too early to be zeroing on specific target areas, the current model runs seems to be pointing towards NW MS Friday evening. Greenville to Memphis to New Albany to Eupora I'd pay attention. Some of the high res models are starting to depict discrete supercells in this environment starting around dark.

[OLJWales]

Hope yall fare well back east. Many times my fort worth weather heads directly yalls way but yall get much more gulf precip than the n.tx desert.

The warm weather this time of year seems to always be freaky. Is it a trend naders popping up more during winter?

[starkvegasdawg]

Hope yall fare well back east. Many times my fort worth weather heads directly yalls way but yall get much more gulf precip than the n.tx desert.

The warm weather this time of year seems to always be freaky. Is it a trend naders popping up more during winter?

It's nothing new. Dixie Alley has had quite a few winter tornadoes. This is even known as our second severe weather season.

[starkvegasdawg]

The threat level has been increased to enhanced with the chance of strong tornadoes within that zone.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif

[jgunn]

How is the Memphis area looking to you?

[starkvegasdawg]

How is the Memphis area looking to you?

Memphis was just barely included in a new moderate risk so I'd be aware of what's going on this evening and tonight. Potential is now there for a few strong long tracked tornadoes in the moderate risk area.

[Commercecomet24]

How about Jones/jasper county? How's it looking for us? Thanks SVD!

[starkvegasdawg]

How about Jones/jasper county? How's it looking for us? Thanks SVD!

The further south you are the better for this one. The worst of the worst in MS should be confined NW of a Yazoo City to Tupelo line.

[Commercecomet24]

The further south you are the better for this one. The worst of the worst in MS should be confined NW of a Yazoo City to Tupelo line.

Thanks man! Always appreciate your info!

[Dawg_Lover]

As usual, your continued dedication to giving us valuable information is appreciated. Up here in NW MS, I?ll batten down the hatches and try to hold the fort down, literally. 😬

[DownwardDawg]

Nashville????
Lol. Yep. Imma always get my severe weather info right here. Plus my grand baby is still on Hwy 84 west!!

[Commercecomet24]

As usual, your continued dedication to giving us valuable information is appreciated. Up here in NW MS, I?ll batten down the hatches and try to hold the fort down, literally. 😬

Stay safe up there!

[Dawg_Lover]

Stay safe up there!

I plan on doing my dadgum best! 😃

[starkvegasdawg]

First storm has fired SW of Little Rock. The event has begun.

[Commercecomet24]

First storm has fired SW of Little Rock. The event has begun.

Praying for everyone's safety!

[Dawg_Lover]

Hey SVD ... are you chasing tonight? If so, stay safe out there!

[ScoobaDawg]

Some quick notes

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1469441558437007361

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1469440280910725125

MS just south of MDT bubble
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1469445198501408774

Discussion to extend tornado watch across the rest of north ms - 60% chance at this time

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1469446400203051010

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/weathertrackus/status/1469448097424154632

North MS stay safe tonight... even more so to anyone up in west tn / se ark, south Missouri.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey SVD ... are you chasing tonight? If so, stay safe out there!

I may when they get closer to home. Got a sinus infection from hell so not driving 5 hours for an all nocturnal chase.

[RocketDawg]

The tornado watch has already been extended eastward, with the southeastern point being Tupelo, MS and extending NE through Nashville and beyond Louisville. It does not include any NW Alabama counties yet.

[DLGDawg]

Dam Scooba. That's one hell of an update. Thx

[DLGDawg]

I may when they get closer to home. Got a sinus infection from hell so not driving 5 hours for an all nocturnal chase.

Gotta break that new dodge out right? Or the low baller stop that 🤦*♂️ 🤔

[Dawg_Lover]

I may when they get closer to home. Got a sinus infection from hell so not driving 5 hours for an all nocturnal chase.

To heck with chasing then. Stay home & hopefully get better, rather than go out & possibly make your weekend even more miserable.

[RocketDawg]

Nasty storm near Jonesboro. Well defined hook and a tornado warning. It's moving toward the NE very rapidly.

[Dawg_Lover]

Nasty storm near Jonesboro. Well defined hook and a tornado warning. It's moving toward the NE very rapidly.

Those poor people in NE AR are getting slammed right now. The first one has been continuing for over 1.5 hours. Praying for them.

[parabrave]

From Little Rock to Cape Giardeau getting plastered. With a 2nd line developing behind that. Gonna be an eventful night for Jackson north

[starkvegasdawg]

The storm that just went north of Leachville, AR, is a monster. If you have any family or friends in the path of this storm tell them to get to shelter now. This is a violent tornado.

[Dawg_Lover]

The storm that just went north of Leachville, AR, is a monster. If you have any family or friends in the path of this storm tell them to get to shelter now. This is a violent tornado.



Watching Ron Childers, NBC Memphis, and his radar was showing dark maroon for that area, which they said they had not seen that color storm in at least a couple of years. Just a minute later it was showing a white area within the maroon. Ron said it was because the storm intensity was so severe that the radar could not assimilate it. Wow!

[starkvegasdawg]

Chasers on the storm reporting it has hit a nursing home. I'm hoping not a direct hit.

But yeah, it's pegging out radar values. The storm has had its own mesoscale discussion issues for it saying it is expected to remain on the ground for a considerable amount more time. It's in a perfect environment.

[Dawg_Lover]

Chasers on the storm reporting it has hit a nursing home. I'm hoping not a direct hit.

But yeah, it's pegging out radar values. The storm has had its own mesoscale discussion issues for it saying it is expected to remain on the ground for a considerable amount more time. It's in a perfect environment.



They just said that tornado has tracked since 5 or 5:30, for 135 miles. The also just said Monette, AR took a direct hit, and they think a nursing home there did, too. No report on injuries, etc.

[Dawg_Lover]

Nursing home update, per a Craighead County official. This is so far, as search & rescue is ongoing ....

2 Deceased
5 Major Injuries
20 Trapped in Basement

This includes Residents and/or Staff.

[Dawg_Lover]

Now, it is being reported a nursing home, in Trumann, AR was hit, by a tornado, as well. And, as it crossed I-55, it tossed semis off the road. Hearing of catastrophic damage, in the MO boot heel, from possible EF4 or 5 tornadoes, but no confirmation on that yet.

[Bass Chaser]

Looks like one went through my hometown in W KY.

[parabrave]

About to get bad around memphis.

[parabrave]

Now, it is being reported a nursing home, in Trumann, AR was hit, by a tornado, as well. And, as it crossed I-55, it tossed semis off the road. Hearing of catastrophic damage, in the MO boot heel, from possible EF4 or 5 tornadoes, but no confirmation on that yet.

Kentucky and Illinois getting hit hard. A tornado took out an Amazon Warehouse. up to 100 trapped in Illinois.

[Dawg_Lover]

Kentucky and Illinois getting hit hard. A tornado took out an Amazon Warehouse. up to 100 trapped in Illinois.

Yes, they showed a little video of the warehouse on Memphis station a while ago. As you said, it?s gotten bad in Memphis. There is a tornado inside the loop over the Liberty Bowl, moving towards Bartlett, Lakeland, & Arlington.

[parabrave]

Hey SVD check your radar for Paducah Ft Campbell areas. Think the storms took out their Nexrad.

[Dawg_Lover]

There are 3 or 4 areas of rotation, possibly on the ground, but not confirmed yet. 2 in north city, 2 in center area, & 1 in Germantown. Geez.

[Dawg_Lover]

I meant 1 in northern area around Frazier.

[parabrave]

Hey DLover1 can you check your radar on that line north of Jonesboro Look like some Bows are developing.

[defiantdog]

Supposedly, the sirens were going on and off like crazy in Memphis for a little bit there.

[Percho]

Big thunder storm in Southaven, NOW

[parabrave]

How is everyone around the memphis area?

[Dawg_Lover]

What I know so far, per WMC-TV in Memphis:

* No damage reported, in Memphis, yet, before the station stopped continuous weather broadcast about 1:30am.
* Did say besides tornadoes, there were indicators of strong straight line winds in different areas, including Memphis midtown, Whitehaven, & Southaven.
* So far, 5 fatalities confirmed in their viewing area. Specifically NE AR (Poinsett & Crittenden counties) and W TN (Dyer & Obion counties).
* Two nursing homes hit in NE AR, 1 in Monette & 1 in Trumann, with 1 fatality confirmed in Monette.
* Practically speaking, the Amazon warehouse, across the river from St Louis, was destroyed.
* The tornado that began near Searcy, AR, around 4 or 5 pm, was still going long after midnight CT between Louisville & Paducah, a track of over 350 miles. That will be interesting to see if that is, in fact, confirmed later.
* There was extensive damage in the MO boot heel, around Caruthersville & Hayti.
* Storms are now moving into ad across Desoto county, but weather guy did say they were not seeing any rotation yet. Yay, I will take it.
* I fear the daylight will bring a lot of bad and sad news.

[parabrave]

Dam there is a bad cell SW and NW of Nashville heading for it/

[parabrave]

Bowling Green got hit real hard.

[Dawg_Lover]

Dam there is a bad cell SW and NW of Nashville heading for it/

The My Radar app says 3 different area counties are under a tornado warning until 3:15 CT.

[parabrave]

Nashville about to get a direct hit. People are still on the main drag.

[Dawg_Lover]

Nashville about to get a direct hit. People are still on the main drag.


Hopefully they get enough prior warning. Otherwise it is a recipe for disaster.

[parabrave]

Man they are going to get hit hard from Downtown to northern part along HWY 70. Can get Debris return on NWS radar

[RocketDawg]

Phone bulletin from the Weather Channel: "Kentucky governor says up to 100 killed after tornadoes rip through the south, midwest." No idea what his source is. Earlier he'd said up to 50, so he must be getting some really bad reports coming in.

[starkvegasdawg]

Phone bulletin from the Weather Channel: "Kentucky governor says up to 100 killed after tornadoes rip through the south, midwest." No idea what his source is. Earlier he'd said up to 50, so he must be getting some really bad reports coming in.

The 50 is from one factory that took a direct hit. I think the 100 is preliminary for his state total. What happened last night will go down in history books. More then likely the record for the longest a tornado has been on the ground surpassing tri state tornado. The pictures that will start coming out this morning will be heart breaking.

[RocketDawg]

I saw one picture, I think from Mayfield, that had a picture in the background with the bark off the tree. That's EF-5 damage if I recall correctly.

Weather Channel guy this morning said the radar was the worst he'd seen, with a difference of 280 mph between inbound/outbound readings.

[Dawg_Lover]

Looks like one went through my hometown in W KY.


Was your hometown hit, and are your family and friends alright? Hopefully it was not Mayfield. The pictures of that area make me think of Joplin, MO, years ago.
God help all affected by the storms last night and those ongoing today.

[starkvegasdawg]

I saw one picture, I think from Mayfield, that had a picture in the background with the bark off the tree. That's EF-5 damage if I recall correctly.

Weather Channel guy this morning said the radar was the worst he'd seen, with a difference of 280 mph between inbound/outbound readings.

An EF-4 can strip bark from a tree but either way this was an exceptionally violent and long lived storm. I expect it to end up a 5 but that'll be up to the survey teams. It will probably get a prelim rating of a 3 with the caveat the surveys are still ongoing.

[99jc]

An EF-4 can strip bark from a tree but either way this was an exceptionally violent and long lived storm. I expect it to end up a 5 but that'll be up to the survey teams. It will probably get a prelim rating of a 3 with the caveat the surveys are still ongoing.

At 227 miles long it will be confirmed as the longest tracking on ground tornado in US history.

[starkvegasdawg]

At 227 miles long it will be confirmed as the longest tracking on ground tornado in US history.

They'll have to confirm it was on the ground that entire time. There's been a little discussion it may have actually been two tornadoes. The first one lifted and then the storm cycled and dropped another one very soon afterwards.

[OLJWales]

At 227 miles long it will be confirmed as the longest tracking on ground tornado in US history.

Sadly the death total is looking north of 100 lives. Don't know the record on that. I can't imagine survivors suffering family member losses. Unimaginable. God Help Them All.

[starkvegasdawg]

Sadly the death total is looking north of 100 lives. Don't know the record on that. I can't imagine survivors suffering family member losses. Unimaginable. God Help Them All.

Especially at this time of year.

[Bass Chaser]

Was your hometown hit, and are your family and friends alright? Hopefully it was not Mayfield. The pictures of that area make me think of Joplin, MO, years ago.
God help all affected by the storms last night and those ongoing today.

It is Mayfield. As far as I can learn family and friends are OK. I know of one guy in my high school graduating class that was killed. Thanks for asking.

[Dawg_Lover]

It is Mayfield. As far as I can learn family and friends are OK. I know of one guy in my high school graduating class that was killed. Thanks for asking.


So sorry for the devastation and loss, in your hometown of Mayfield, glad to hear your family and friends are okay.

[Bass Chaser]

So sorry for the devastation and loss, in your hometown of Mayfield, glad to hear your family and friends are okay.

Thank you!

[Commercecomet24]

It is Mayfield. As far as I can learn family and friends are OK. I know of one guy in my high school graduating class that was killed. Thanks for asking.

Praying for all those affected! Hoping your family and friends are ok!

[Dawg_Lover]

Memphis did have trees down on power lines & houses. Sadly, one lady was killed when a tree went down across her home.

[Bass Chaser]

Praying for all those affected! Hoping your family and friends are ok!

Thanks CC!

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks CC!

You're welcome! I remember all to well the Easter tornadoes 2020 here in Jones county that devastated the western part of the county. It's heartbreaking.

[Joebob]

One thing that's interesting to me is that the winds were blowing out of the southwest before the outbreak. Here in DFW that would mean dry air blowing in from the desert, which isn't conducive to forming tornadoes. Obviously though there was still plenty of moisture in place in that part of the country to allow a severe tornado outbreak.

Also, I read a story a little while ago from 2018 that said that a new tornado alley was forming in that exact part of the country, and the tornadoes were lasting longer and happening at night, which is exactly what happened last night. It said the center of this increasing tornadic activity was Memphis.

[Bass Chaser]

I continue to be interested in how much the Mississippi River affects these storms.

My hometown is not far from where the Ohio and Mississippi River connect. You also have the Tennessee River to the south.

[starkvegasdawg]

I continue to be interested in how much the Mississippi River affects these storms.

My hometown is not far from where the Ohio and Mississippi River connect. You also have the Tennessee River to the south.

Zero effect. The dynamics that create and feed these storms are on a much larger scale than what a river could ever manipulate.

[parabrave]

One thing that's interesting to me is that the winds were blowing out of the southwest before the outbreak. Here in DFW that would mean dry air blowing in from the desert, which isn't conducive to forming tornadoes. Obviously though there was still plenty of moisture in place in that part of the country to allow a severe tornado outbreak.

Also, I read a story a little while ago from 2018 that said that a new tornado alley was forming in that exact part of the country, and the tornadoes were lasting longer and happening at night, which is exactly what happened last night. It said the center of this increasing tornadic activity was Memphis.

Back in the 70's Ohio and KY were getting some of the worst outbreak in history.

[parabrave]

Zero effect. The dynamics that create and feed these storms are on a much larger scale than what a river could ever manipulate.

The main thing was the high and mid level winds that were causing the instability. Friday morning they were showing the winds at 150 and 200 FL over Arkansas. I can't remember what they were but the forecaster was saying that we would see some high EF Tornados. SVD and Scooba and the new guy can explain this factor better.

[starkvegasdawg]

To get tornadoes you have to have sufficient instability to produce the thunderstorms and sufficient persistent shear to produce sustained strong updrafts. Also need it in the correct ratios. Too much instability and not enough shear and you end up with a rainy mess. Too much shear and the storms just rip themselves apart. Also, typically need a low level jet coming in at the right angle to help produce the discrete supercells. Get too many storms in one area and they disrupt each other's inflow and outflow as well as compete for available instability and moisture. Instead of being discrete they end up forming a squall line.

[parabrave]

Video of the Tornado in KY
https://twitter.com/i/status/1469656473068265479

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

I saw this picture on another website. Picture was taken near Union City, Tennessee.

https://scontent-mia3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/266471133_4694769843903374_1633592103439203715_n.j pg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=b9115d&_nc_ohc=5S9ZMID-EVIAX_nqR_u&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=00_AT81Sw0AcrvIt9bNhEl4z0qHJWlg0QgxdJeC96qYmWgK 5w&oe=61B9BD68


It shows what the person thinks is 6 tornados on the ground at the same time. This is nightmare fuel. Goodness

[starkvegasdawg]

I saw this picture on another website. Picture was taken near Union City, Tennessee.

https://scontent-mia3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/266471133_4694769843903374_1633592103439203715_n.j pg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=b9115d&_nc_ohc=5S9ZMID-EVIAX_nqR_u&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=00_AT81Sw0AcrvIt9bNhEl4z0qHJWlg0QgxdJeC96qYmWgK 5w&oe=61B9BD68


It shows what the person thinks is 6 tornados on the ground at the same time. This is nightmare fuel. Goodness

If that is real it's waterspouts out over the ocean. It is not from the event the other night. My personal guess is photoshop.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

If that is real it's waterspouts out over the ocean. It is not from the event the other night. My personal guess is photoshop.

It's a still shot taken from this video. Sorry for the facebook link.

https://www.facebook.com/donniecaash/videos/4936207043080690/

[starkvegasdawg]

If that's authentic footage from the other night and it's not photoshopped, trees, or in some way manipulated then it's absolutely unprecedented footage. But I'm suspecting with the number of chasers and Mets with eyes and radar on that night if it really happened there would have been a whole lot of talk about it. That footage would be talked about more than the long track tornado. That said, I don't know so I can't say.

[defiantdog]

If that's authentic footage from the other night and it's not photoshopped, trees, or in some way manipulated then it's absolutely unprecedented footage. But I'm suspecting with the number of chasers and Mets with eyes and radar on that night if it really happened there would have been a whole lot of talk about it. That footage would be talked about more than the long track tornado. That said, I don't know so I can't say.
Heard rumors of a potential snow storm coming in around Christmas..... You see any models on that?

[starkvegasdawg]

Heard rumors of a potential snow storm coming in around Christmas..... You see any models on that?
I've see nothing on that. I'd be more inclined to say we'd see a severe threat before snow.

Anybody mentioning snow here over a week out should be shot.

[TheLostDawg]

I've see nothing on that. I'd be more inclined to say we'd see a severe threat before snow.

Anybody mentioning snow here over a week out should be shot.

This made me laugh

[Westdawg]

I saw this picture on another website. Picture was taken near Union City, Tennessee.

https://scontent-mia3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/266471133_4694769843903374_1633592103439203715_n.j pg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=b9115d&_nc_ohc=5S9ZMID-EVIAX_nqR_u&_nc_ht=scontent-mia3-1.xx&oh=00_AT81Sw0AcrvIt9bNhEl4z0qHJWlg0QgxdJeC96qYmWgK 5w&oe=61B9BD68


It shows what the person thinks is 6 tornados on the ground at the same time. This is nightmare fuel. Goodness

I cannot confirm this video, but I?ve got family just south of union city out of Newbern. Several people have said they saw Multiple tornadoes on the ground at the same time in that area. For the most part, it?s slightly rolling hills and flatland (row crops) in that area, so it?s definitely easy to snap a pic like that around there

[ScoobaDawg]

I've see nothing on that. I'd be more inclined to say we'd see a severe threat before snow.

Anybody mentioning snow here over a week out should be shot.

Truth... even a week shouldn't be trusted. but now you are talking about 11-12 days... ugh. just no.