Quaoarsking
10-31-2021, 10:17 AM
Of course it is, but I'm going to do it anyway.
We are currently 3-2 in the SEC. If we were to win our remaining games, we would finish 6-2 in the conference. If Alabama were to also lose twice, they would drop to 5-3. We would win the West and play in Atlanta, because no one else in the conference would be better than 6-2 and we would have the tiebreakers over Texas A&M and Auburn if we need it.
But it's pretty unlikely that Alabama loses twice with only LSU, Arkansas, and @Auburn on their schedule. What if Auburn loses to us and then beats Alabama, causing a 3-way tie at 6-2? In that case, Auburn would go to Atlanta on the strength of their 5-1 division record, compared to us and Alabama being 4-2.
What if that happens, but Texas A&M beats Auburn, causing a 3-way tie between us, Alabama, and Texas A&M? We would all be 4-2 against the division and 1-1 against each other. The next tiebreaker is to go down the division standings to see who has the best win. So in that scenario, it's likely Auburn coming in 4th, so Alabama would be eliminated and we would go to Atlanta because we beat Texas A&M. However, we would be eliminated if LSU finishes 4th, sending A&M to Atlanta, and if Arkansas finishes 4th, A&M is eliminated, sending Alabama to Atlanta. If it's Ole Miss finishing 4th, we would all 3 have a win over them, so it would go to who finishes 5th.
Conclusion: If (and that's a big, big if) we finish 6-2, we have a better shot at winning the West than anyone realizes. It does not require Alabama to lose twice - there is a plausible path of Alabama losing only once and Texas A&M winning out that probably sends us to Atlanta.
We are currently 3-2 in the SEC. If we were to win our remaining games, we would finish 6-2 in the conference. If Alabama were to also lose twice, they would drop to 5-3. We would win the West and play in Atlanta, because no one else in the conference would be better than 6-2 and we would have the tiebreakers over Texas A&M and Auburn if we need it.
But it's pretty unlikely that Alabama loses twice with only LSU, Arkansas, and @Auburn on their schedule. What if Auburn loses to us and then beats Alabama, causing a 3-way tie at 6-2? In that case, Auburn would go to Atlanta on the strength of their 5-1 division record, compared to us and Alabama being 4-2.
What if that happens, but Texas A&M beats Auburn, causing a 3-way tie between us, Alabama, and Texas A&M? We would all be 4-2 against the division and 1-1 against each other. The next tiebreaker is to go down the division standings to see who has the best win. So in that scenario, it's likely Auburn coming in 4th, so Alabama would be eliminated and we would go to Atlanta because we beat Texas A&M. However, we would be eliminated if LSU finishes 4th, sending A&M to Atlanta, and if Arkansas finishes 4th, A&M is eliminated, sending Alabama to Atlanta. If it's Ole Miss finishing 4th, we would all 3 have a win over them, so it would go to who finishes 5th.
Conclusion: If (and that's a big, big if) we finish 6-2, we have a better shot at winning the West than anyone realizes. It does not require Alabama to lose twice - there is a plausible path of Alabama losing only once and Texas A&M winning out that probably sends us to Atlanta.