Prediction? Pain.
10-26-2021, 11:31 AM
Some of y'all asked me to regularly update the advanced stat rankings for the football team. Sorry about dropping the ball on that. I'll ramble about a few things here that hopefully scratches the itch.
All this is from the FEI rankings, which you can read about here (https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei/). The gist is that it rank's a team's drive-based efficiency and then adjusts the ranking based upon strength of schedule (which of course means that SEC teams all get bumps). Points/TDs per drive, available yards gained per drive, % of drives that end in a three-and-out or a turnover, etc. The rankings exclude drives in garbage time and drives in games vs. FCS schools.
After eight weeks, our offense is ranked 57th nationally and our defense is 15th. For perspective, last year our offense ended up at 104th and our defense finished at 38th. But let's break it down further.
On offense last year, we we putrid at everything except avoiding busted drives, which are drives that end in zero or less yards. Otherwise, it was as bad as it felt in real time -- 109th in points per drive, 109th in % of drives that get TDs, 110th in drives that gained at least one first down, etc. The only reason we weren't ranked even lower than 104th is because of the strength-of-schedule bump we got for those unadjusted stats. So yeah, not good.
So far this year -- and the "so far" bit matters since three of our last four FBS games involve fairly solid defenses -- we've improved quite a bit. 58th in points per drive, 59th in % of drives that get a TD, 59th in % of available yards gained per drive, and 24th in % of drives that gained at least one first down. The only two areas that haven't seen a jump are points per play and % of drives that result in a turnover. The points-per-play doesn't surprise me too much given how this offense is so focused on hyper-efficient short passes all over the field. But if that turnover stat was cleaned up, I bet that all the others would improve a fair amount.
Two things to keep in context here, one negative, one (hopefully) positive. First, while we've improved a remarkable amount on offense, we're still near the bottom of the conference. The SEC has a few tiers of offense right now based on these numbers. At the top are Alabama, UGA, and U. Miss, whose offenses are ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th nationally. All three are in the top 11 nationally in points per drive, available yards gained per drive, % of drives that end in TDs, and % of drives that gain at least one first down. Next, you've got Florida, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas, with Florida clearly on top of the group and and Tennessee and Arkansas close to the next rung down. Then you have Kentucky, A&M, Mizzou, and State, all ranked 40th - 57th nationally. And then way, way, way down are SC's and Vandy's offenses (109th and 115th). So, yeah, it's great to be back in the mix after last year, but we're not where we need to be.
The second thing to note is that this is exactly what happened at WSU. As I've explained elsewhere, the year before Leach, WSU's offense was pretty good, especially the passing game. He then wrecked it just like he did ours last year. The 2012 WSU offense finished the season at 100th in FEI offense, stinking just as bad -- or even worse -- in all the categories that we sucked in, too, like TDs and points per drive and available yards gained and so on. Then in 2013, the offense improved dramatically and finished the year at 62nd. (Their unadjusted efficiency stats were actually a fair amount worse than ours right now, but we've also still got four conference games to go.) The next year they made another sizable jump -- from 62nd to 41st. The next year was essentially the same (40th) and then three of his last four years at WSU they finished 11th, 12th, and 6th. (The off year among his final six at WSU was '17, when the offense was a stinker but they finished 8 - 4 anyway because of a solid D.)
I don't know whether the improvement continues here next season. But it's at least somewhat encouraging that there's precedent for this.
As for defense, the story's much simpler. Other than opponents' points per play -- we finished '20 at 28th nationally in that and we're currently 58th -- we've improved pretty much everything. Points per drive, % of drives that end in a TD, zero-gain drives, % of drives that gain a first down, % of available yards gained per drive, etc.; it's all better right now. Among SEC teams, we're below UGA (1st), Alabama (9th), A&M (10th), and Florida (12th), and right with Kentucky (18th) and maybe Auburn (26th).
Like the offense, though, the D still has to face some stiff challenges.
If you're keen on traditional stats instead, by the way, things are looking somewhat similar. In Power-5 games only -- I usually use SEC-only stats but since the season's not done and we've actually played a legit Power 5 team, what the hell -- the conference ranks of the scoring offense, total offense, 3rd down conv. %, and RZ TD% are 9th, 6th, 4th, and 9th. And the scoring D, total D, opponents' 3rd down conv. %, and RZ TD % defense are ranked 6th, 2nd, 6th, and 2nd
There are advanced stats available for our o- and d-lines, too, but I think I've rambled enough. You can see them here (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/sp/overallol/2021).
All this is from the FEI rankings, which you can read about here (https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei/). The gist is that it rank's a team's drive-based efficiency and then adjusts the ranking based upon strength of schedule (which of course means that SEC teams all get bumps). Points/TDs per drive, available yards gained per drive, % of drives that end in a three-and-out or a turnover, etc. The rankings exclude drives in garbage time and drives in games vs. FCS schools.
After eight weeks, our offense is ranked 57th nationally and our defense is 15th. For perspective, last year our offense ended up at 104th and our defense finished at 38th. But let's break it down further.
On offense last year, we we putrid at everything except avoiding busted drives, which are drives that end in zero or less yards. Otherwise, it was as bad as it felt in real time -- 109th in points per drive, 109th in % of drives that get TDs, 110th in drives that gained at least one first down, etc. The only reason we weren't ranked even lower than 104th is because of the strength-of-schedule bump we got for those unadjusted stats. So yeah, not good.
So far this year -- and the "so far" bit matters since three of our last four FBS games involve fairly solid defenses -- we've improved quite a bit. 58th in points per drive, 59th in % of drives that get a TD, 59th in % of available yards gained per drive, and 24th in % of drives that gained at least one first down. The only two areas that haven't seen a jump are points per play and % of drives that result in a turnover. The points-per-play doesn't surprise me too much given how this offense is so focused on hyper-efficient short passes all over the field. But if that turnover stat was cleaned up, I bet that all the others would improve a fair amount.
Two things to keep in context here, one negative, one (hopefully) positive. First, while we've improved a remarkable amount on offense, we're still near the bottom of the conference. The SEC has a few tiers of offense right now based on these numbers. At the top are Alabama, UGA, and U. Miss, whose offenses are ranked 1st, 3rd, and 4th nationally. All three are in the top 11 nationally in points per drive, available yards gained per drive, % of drives that end in TDs, and % of drives that gain at least one first down. Next, you've got Florida, LSU, Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas, with Florida clearly on top of the group and and Tennessee and Arkansas close to the next rung down. Then you have Kentucky, A&M, Mizzou, and State, all ranked 40th - 57th nationally. And then way, way, way down are SC's and Vandy's offenses (109th and 115th). So, yeah, it's great to be back in the mix after last year, but we're not where we need to be.
The second thing to note is that this is exactly what happened at WSU. As I've explained elsewhere, the year before Leach, WSU's offense was pretty good, especially the passing game. He then wrecked it just like he did ours last year. The 2012 WSU offense finished the season at 100th in FEI offense, stinking just as bad -- or even worse -- in all the categories that we sucked in, too, like TDs and points per drive and available yards gained and so on. Then in 2013, the offense improved dramatically and finished the year at 62nd. (Their unadjusted efficiency stats were actually a fair amount worse than ours right now, but we've also still got four conference games to go.) The next year they made another sizable jump -- from 62nd to 41st. The next year was essentially the same (40th) and then three of his last four years at WSU they finished 11th, 12th, and 6th. (The off year among his final six at WSU was '17, when the offense was a stinker but they finished 8 - 4 anyway because of a solid D.)
I don't know whether the improvement continues here next season. But it's at least somewhat encouraging that there's precedent for this.
As for defense, the story's much simpler. Other than opponents' points per play -- we finished '20 at 28th nationally in that and we're currently 58th -- we've improved pretty much everything. Points per drive, % of drives that end in a TD, zero-gain drives, % of drives that gain a first down, % of available yards gained per drive, etc.; it's all better right now. Among SEC teams, we're below UGA (1st), Alabama (9th), A&M (10th), and Florida (12th), and right with Kentucky (18th) and maybe Auburn (26th).
Like the offense, though, the D still has to face some stiff challenges.
If you're keen on traditional stats instead, by the way, things are looking somewhat similar. In Power-5 games only -- I usually use SEC-only stats but since the season's not done and we've actually played a legit Power 5 team, what the hell -- the conference ranks of the scoring offense, total offense, 3rd down conv. %, and RZ TD% are 9th, 6th, 4th, and 9th. And the scoring D, total D, opponents' 3rd down conv. %, and RZ TD % defense are ranked 6th, 2nd, 6th, and 2nd
There are advanced stats available for our o- and d-lines, too, but I think I've rambled enough. You can see them here (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/sp/overallol/2021).