Quaoarsking
11-17-2013, 04:21 PM
Under the current system, there were only 2 games that mattered last night:
Alabama 20, Mississippi State 7
Florida State 59, Syracuse 3
That's it. These two teams are very likely to be playing for the national title, and all that really mattered to the national championship hunt was two games against teams near the bottom of their conferences. Obviously, we were very interested in the MSU-Alabama game, but most around the country were not. You can argue that the Baylor-Texas Tech game mattered too, and to an even lesser extent the Ohio State-Illinois game, but the odds of Baylor making it to the national championship, no matter how big they win in November, are pretty low, and Ohio State even lower. Teams like Auburn and Stanford that are "still alive" (or at least were yesterday) probably have less than a 1% chance of making the game because it would take 3 of the above teams losing to even get them into the discussion.
Anyway, I think that makes the late regular season kind of a letdown. Sure, it's not all about who goes to the national championship and nothing else, but it was pretty obvious that nothing was going to change about the national championship picture yesterday, barring a monumental upset, so the season was stuck in a holding pattern yesterday. Guess what? It's even worse next week as Alabama plays Chattanooga and Florida State plays Idaho. Poor Baylor. There's absolutely nothing they can do to win a national title other than sit around and hope for a huge upset. Ditto for Ohio State, although I just don't like them and thus don't feel as bad for them.
Under the upcoming 4-team playoff, 4 games yesterday would have directly mattered:
Alabama 20, Mississippi State 7
Florida State 59, Syracuse 3
Baylor 63, Texas Tech 34
Ohio State 60, Illinois 35
Still 4 blowouts against clearly inferior teams, but 4 important games instead of 2. Not only that, it's a whole lot more likely that 1 of those 4 will lose than 3, so games played by Stanford, Auburn, Missouri (who was off), Oregon, and Oklahoma State would have all meant a lot more.
People argue that because there's no playoff, regular season games are like playoff games. I can understand this argument -- Florida State and Alabama had playoff-like games for themselves yesterday in the sense that if they had lost, they were most likely out. But under the 4-team playoff system, this is still true. If any of the 4 undefeated teams had lost yesterday, they would probably be out. Sure, Alabama would probably play their way back in with a loss to us if they beat Auburn and won the SEC, but that's no different than what the Tide has done the last 2 years, so if you consider that a problem, it's not something that the BCS is any better on.
What would make the regular season even better would be an 8-team playoff. These are the teams that would still be alive under an 8-team playoff:
Alabama, Florida State, and Baylor have strong enough resumes that they could lose just 1 time and should still make the playoff.
Ohio State needs to go undefeated to secure a spot. With 1 loss, it would have a chance, but its resume would be weak and it would be a bubble team, especially if the 1 loss was to Michigan State in the Big 10 championship game.
Oregon needed a Stanford loss yesterday and got it. If Oregon wins out and wins the Pac-12 Championship Game, it would be in at 12-1, but a loss would probably make it bubble out.
Stanford had a good chance coming into yesterday, but its chances are probably done. If Oregon loses another game and Stanford gets to play in the Pac-12 championship, or if a bunch of teams rack up two losses, it might make it, but it needs help.
Auburn can secure a spot with a win over Alabama, but a close loss and 10-2 record might get them in -- again, depends on what everyone else does.
South Carolina would need to beat Clemson, get into the SEC Championship Game, and win it. 3 losses would be too many, and if Missouri wins the East, SC's resume probably just isn't good enough.
Clemson's loss to Florida State was horrendous, but if it beat South Carolina it might sneak into one of the last slots at 11-1, depending on how everyone else goes.
Missouri would need to beat Ole Miss and Texas A&M at a minimum. Without playing the SEC Championship Game, it would just be behind too many other teams to have a chance. Winning the SECCG would lock up a spot in the game, but a close loss might still get them in.
Texas A&M is probably out, being depending on how other teams shake out, 10-2 might get them there. At the very least, Texas A&M would have a better shot of making an 8-team playoff than Ohio State does in real life of making the BCS Championship Game.
Oklahoma State is a longshot but a win over Baylor could lead them to an 11-1 record that would probably get them in.
Michigan State is an even longer shot, but if it finishes 12-1 with a win over Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship it probably gets a spot (and knocks Ohio State out of one)
UCLA at 8-2 is probably out, but if it can win the Pac-12 South and beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, it might sneak in.
Arizona State - see UCLA word-for-word
Duke could possibly still make it at 11-2 if it somehow won its last two games and then pulled off a major upset of Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, but even then it would likely be out.
Fresno State and Northern Illinois would at least be in the conversation if they finished 13-0, but I don't think either has an impressive enough resume to have a serious chance. But small conference teams would at least have a chance from time to time to make it under this system.
Central Florida would be the longest of all longshots, but is likely to finish 11-1 with a 3-point loss to South Carolina. If South Carolina were the SEC Champion and a bunch of contenders all lost games near the end, they might have an off-chance of getting in, but pretty unlikely.
That's 17 teams who games still matter for the playoff each week. That's the potential for a dozen or more "playoff games" each week. Yes, a few of these teams can still take a loss and still make it, but most of them can't. Plus, I would rather that a single loss can't derail a team's season. I would much rather watch a really good team who screwed up (or just had bad luck) once or twice than a mediocre team get lucky a lot and play a weak schedule (like last year's Notre Dame or those Ohio State or Oklahoma teams that got shellacked).
I think the SEC has been lucky to have been so well-served by the BCS system. 5 of the 7 SEC champions during the streak have had a loss (or 2, in LSU's case), and in none of those years was there an undefeated team from another major conference to replace them. When the SEC teams needed to be undefeated, they were. Without some really implausible upsets (WV losing at home to 4-7 Pitt, USC losing multiple times to Oregon State or at home to UCLA or at home to 41-point underdog Stanford, Oklahoma State losing to a bad Iowa State team, Kansas State and Oregon both getting upset last year, etc.), weird scheduling decisions (VA Tech could have just not played LSU in 2007 and taken LSU's slot), and just flat out good luck with the human polls (Michigan could have gotten in over Florida in 2006, USC in 2007 or 2008, Oklahoma State over Alabama in 2011) the SEC's streak wouldn't be possible. Overall, the bigger the playoff should cause more SEC titles over a decade than the BCS, since it's all about the best teams all getting up to play each other, instead of the grind of dissimilar conference games (SEC schedules are much tougher) causing random results. Coincidentally, that's not how it played out.
Alabama 20, Mississippi State 7
Florida State 59, Syracuse 3
That's it. These two teams are very likely to be playing for the national title, and all that really mattered to the national championship hunt was two games against teams near the bottom of their conferences. Obviously, we were very interested in the MSU-Alabama game, but most around the country were not. You can argue that the Baylor-Texas Tech game mattered too, and to an even lesser extent the Ohio State-Illinois game, but the odds of Baylor making it to the national championship, no matter how big they win in November, are pretty low, and Ohio State even lower. Teams like Auburn and Stanford that are "still alive" (or at least were yesterday) probably have less than a 1% chance of making the game because it would take 3 of the above teams losing to even get them into the discussion.
Anyway, I think that makes the late regular season kind of a letdown. Sure, it's not all about who goes to the national championship and nothing else, but it was pretty obvious that nothing was going to change about the national championship picture yesterday, barring a monumental upset, so the season was stuck in a holding pattern yesterday. Guess what? It's even worse next week as Alabama plays Chattanooga and Florida State plays Idaho. Poor Baylor. There's absolutely nothing they can do to win a national title other than sit around and hope for a huge upset. Ditto for Ohio State, although I just don't like them and thus don't feel as bad for them.
Under the upcoming 4-team playoff, 4 games yesterday would have directly mattered:
Alabama 20, Mississippi State 7
Florida State 59, Syracuse 3
Baylor 63, Texas Tech 34
Ohio State 60, Illinois 35
Still 4 blowouts against clearly inferior teams, but 4 important games instead of 2. Not only that, it's a whole lot more likely that 1 of those 4 will lose than 3, so games played by Stanford, Auburn, Missouri (who was off), Oregon, and Oklahoma State would have all meant a lot more.
People argue that because there's no playoff, regular season games are like playoff games. I can understand this argument -- Florida State and Alabama had playoff-like games for themselves yesterday in the sense that if they had lost, they were most likely out. But under the 4-team playoff system, this is still true. If any of the 4 undefeated teams had lost yesterday, they would probably be out. Sure, Alabama would probably play their way back in with a loss to us if they beat Auburn and won the SEC, but that's no different than what the Tide has done the last 2 years, so if you consider that a problem, it's not something that the BCS is any better on.
What would make the regular season even better would be an 8-team playoff. These are the teams that would still be alive under an 8-team playoff:
Alabama, Florida State, and Baylor have strong enough resumes that they could lose just 1 time and should still make the playoff.
Ohio State needs to go undefeated to secure a spot. With 1 loss, it would have a chance, but its resume would be weak and it would be a bubble team, especially if the 1 loss was to Michigan State in the Big 10 championship game.
Oregon needed a Stanford loss yesterday and got it. If Oregon wins out and wins the Pac-12 Championship Game, it would be in at 12-1, but a loss would probably make it bubble out.
Stanford had a good chance coming into yesterday, but its chances are probably done. If Oregon loses another game and Stanford gets to play in the Pac-12 championship, or if a bunch of teams rack up two losses, it might make it, but it needs help.
Auburn can secure a spot with a win over Alabama, but a close loss and 10-2 record might get them in -- again, depends on what everyone else does.
South Carolina would need to beat Clemson, get into the SEC Championship Game, and win it. 3 losses would be too many, and if Missouri wins the East, SC's resume probably just isn't good enough.
Clemson's loss to Florida State was horrendous, but if it beat South Carolina it might sneak into one of the last slots at 11-1, depending on how everyone else goes.
Missouri would need to beat Ole Miss and Texas A&M at a minimum. Without playing the SEC Championship Game, it would just be behind too many other teams to have a chance. Winning the SECCG would lock up a spot in the game, but a close loss might still get them in.
Texas A&M is probably out, being depending on how other teams shake out, 10-2 might get them there. At the very least, Texas A&M would have a better shot of making an 8-team playoff than Ohio State does in real life of making the BCS Championship Game.
Oklahoma State is a longshot but a win over Baylor could lead them to an 11-1 record that would probably get them in.
Michigan State is an even longer shot, but if it finishes 12-1 with a win over Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship it probably gets a spot (and knocks Ohio State out of one)
UCLA at 8-2 is probably out, but if it can win the Pac-12 South and beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, it might sneak in.
Arizona State - see UCLA word-for-word
Duke could possibly still make it at 11-2 if it somehow won its last two games and then pulled off a major upset of Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, but even then it would likely be out.
Fresno State and Northern Illinois would at least be in the conversation if they finished 13-0, but I don't think either has an impressive enough resume to have a serious chance. But small conference teams would at least have a chance from time to time to make it under this system.
Central Florida would be the longest of all longshots, but is likely to finish 11-1 with a 3-point loss to South Carolina. If South Carolina were the SEC Champion and a bunch of contenders all lost games near the end, they might have an off-chance of getting in, but pretty unlikely.
That's 17 teams who games still matter for the playoff each week. That's the potential for a dozen or more "playoff games" each week. Yes, a few of these teams can still take a loss and still make it, but most of them can't. Plus, I would rather that a single loss can't derail a team's season. I would much rather watch a really good team who screwed up (or just had bad luck) once or twice than a mediocre team get lucky a lot and play a weak schedule (like last year's Notre Dame or those Ohio State or Oklahoma teams that got shellacked).
I think the SEC has been lucky to have been so well-served by the BCS system. 5 of the 7 SEC champions during the streak have had a loss (or 2, in LSU's case), and in none of those years was there an undefeated team from another major conference to replace them. When the SEC teams needed to be undefeated, they were. Without some really implausible upsets (WV losing at home to 4-7 Pitt, USC losing multiple times to Oregon State or at home to UCLA or at home to 41-point underdog Stanford, Oklahoma State losing to a bad Iowa State team, Kansas State and Oregon both getting upset last year, etc.), weird scheduling decisions (VA Tech could have just not played LSU in 2007 and taken LSU's slot), and just flat out good luck with the human polls (Michigan could have gotten in over Florida in 2006, USC in 2007 or 2008, Oklahoma State over Alabama in 2011) the SEC's streak wouldn't be possible. Overall, the bigger the playoff should cause more SEC titles over a decade than the BCS, since it's all about the best teams all getting up to play each other, instead of the grind of dissimilar conference games (SEC schedules are much tougher) causing random results. Coincidentally, that's not how it played out.