Most Likely Outcome (Last Six)

[Hambone]

0-6
1-5
2-4
3-3
4-2
5-1
6-0

My vote 3-3 with wins against Vandy, TN State and Arkansas.

What say you guys?

[Quaoarsking]

90% Vanderbilt
60% Kentucky
40% Arkansas
25% Auburn
99% Tennessee State
50% Ole Miss

These probabilities aren't technically independent, but it makes 4-2 very slightly more likely than 3-3. I really wouldn't be surprised with anything between 2-4 and 5-1.

[KOdawg1]

I think we go 3-3.

Vandy, Tenn St, and one out of Kentucky or Arkansas.

We could beat Auburn I guess but we suck in Jordan Hare.

We ain't beating OM unless Corral gets hurt which is possible I guess with the way they're running him.

[Commercecomet24]

I believe 3-3 is the likely outcome.

[BayouDawg]

I think 3-3 as well

[vindastra]

2 - 4 (Vanderbilt and TN State)

[Coach34]

2-4

I think kentucky wins in a good game. They have the week off to get ready for us
UPig is the key along with the weather. UPig has the week off to get ready for us also which helps them. But a sunny not so dreary day game at 1pm in R-Kansas would help us. Gotta stop UPig Relf from beating us

We arent beating Auburn at Auburn. Their DL is freaking good and their offense gets better each week. Hell- they will give Bama a scare

Egg Bowl is anything can happen. They are better than us but we are at home. Pride game can produce amazing results. And I'm damn sure Leach is aware he wont be given the chance to keep his job going 0-8 against his rival at State.

[BayouDawg]

2-4

I think kentucky wins in a good game. They have the week off to get ready for us
UPig is the key along with the weather. UPig has the week off to get ready for us also which helps them. But a sunny not so dreary day game at 1pm in R-Kansas would help us. Gotta stop UPig Relf from beating us

We arent beating Auburn at Auburn. Their DL is freaking good and their offense gets better each week. Hell- they will give Bama a scare

Egg Bowl is anything can happen. They are better than us but we are at home. Pride game can produce amazing results. And I'm damn sure Leach is aware he wont be given the chance to keep his job going 0-8 against his rival at State.

5-7 and another loss in the egg bowl makes next year a win or get out of town year for Leach and hopefully Cohen too.

[TrapGame]

I'd love to see us rip off a 4-2 w/ the remaining schedule but 3-3 looks most likely.

[Coach34]

Now let me add because people try to twist my words so often:

I think Kentucky will beat us because they are a good team, well-coached, and have the week off to prepare for the Airbone. Will I be surprised if we win? No- not at all. If we can limit their chunk plays-especially in the passing game and make it a low-scoring game- we can certainly pull it off. But when asked who would I pick? I'd pick Kentucky.

UPig struggles to make throws- but UPig Relf makes a few every Saturday. They have probably the best WR in the SEC who will be a tough match-up for us. They have speed at the other WR's. They will give us problems. But their Secondary is suspect. However, the weather is unpredictable and they too have the week off to prepare. Advantage UPig. I lean to them winning. Will I be surprised if we win? No.

Auburn? Not happening

Mississippi? Got to have faith. spoiling a Heisman campaign motivates players to be better than they are.

[TrapGame]

Now let me add because people try to twist my words so often:

I think Kentucky will beat us because they are a good team, well-coached, and have the week off to prepare for the Airbone. Will I be surprised if we win? No- not at all. If we can limit their chunk plays-especially in the passing game and make it a low-scoring game- we can certainly pull it off. But when asked who would I pick? I'd pick Kentucky.

UPig struggles to make throws- but UPig Relf makes a few every Saturday. They have probably the best WR in the SEC who will be a tough match-up for us. They have speed at the other WR's. They will give us problems. But their Secondary is suspect. However, the weather is unpredictable and they too have the week off to prepare. Advantage UPig. I lean to them winning. Will I be surprised if we win? No.

Auburn? Not happening

Mississippi? Got to have faith. spoiling a Heisman campaign motivates players to be better than they are.

Yep, but 2-4 out of the remaining games would pretty much do my Leach support in. This offense needs to start really clicking this second half of the season. We need to see something. That something is moving the ball and scoring on UPig and UK.

[R2Dawg]

I'm hoping and thinking 3-3. We get the third win from either Ark, UK or OM, not sure which one.

UK is better but we have had their number over the years. Ark seems less likely since on road. OM just because the egg bowl never goes like it should and we are at home.

[Coach34]

Yep, but 2-4 out of the remaining games would pretty much do my Leach support in. This offense needs to start really clicking this second half of the season. We need to see something. That something is moving the ball and scoring on UPig and UK.

Teams for the most part are playing us to prevent the big play- which is why we are in the bottom of the conference in chuck plays. So that means we arent going to score a bunch of points against teams. Thus- The Airbone. We gonna have to win lower scoring games.

[Coach34]

UK is better but we have had their number over the years. .

3-3 the last 6 years.

[Todd4State]

Umm...how healthy is Will Rogers?

[Commercecomet24]

Umm...how healthy is Will Rogers?

He's hurting.

[R2Dawg]

3-3 the last 6 years.

I was going back 10-15 years, huge MSU advantage. Even JoMo skull drug UK once when he wasn't supposed to.

I agree the tide is swinging with us and UK - not a good thing. Ironically, UK has become MSU - tough D and run the ball. We have become UK of old. Who is going the right direction?

[parabrave]

2-4/ November Weather in NWA sucks.

[Coach34]

Umm...how healthy is Will Rogers?

My guess is he gets a shot Saturday and plays. He will gut it out and play decently- we will beat a garbage team by 20.

And we wonder why none of the other QB's play a snap

[R2Dawg]

Teams for the most part are playing us to prevent the big play- which is why we are in the bottom of the conference in chuck plays. So that means we arent going to score a bunch of points against teams. Thus- The Airbone. We gonna have to win lower scoring games.

Which is what we had before running the ball most of the time, but when you can run the ball - you punch in TDs in the red zone. That is a big advantage to ground pound. If they can't stop you between the 20s, probably not stopping you inside either.

[Coach34]

I was going back 10-15 years, huge MSU advantage. Even JoMo skull drug UK once when he wasn't supposed to.

Let's not forget JoVester getting skulldrug by them in 2018 with probably the best team we have put on the field since 1980

[Commercecomet24]

My guess is he gets a shot Saturday and plays. He will gut it out and play decently- we will beat a garbage team by 20.

And we wonder why none of the other QB's play a snap

I know he had some help in the second half Saturday night just to be able to play. He probably needs at least a week off. I will say one thing the kids a gamer for sure.

[R2Dawg]

Let's not forget JoVester getting skulldrug by them in 2018 with probably the best team we have put on the field since 1980

Yeah that is when Joe had his head up his butt UK and then UF. We had no business losing either of those games.

[Commercecomet24]

Let's not forget JoVester getting skulldrug by them in 2018 with probably the best team we have put on the field since 1980

That game still makes me want to throw up along with the Florida game.

[Coach34]

That game still makes me want to throw up along with the Florida game.

Dont get me started about those 2.

[confucius say]

Way too many people just assuming a win against Vandy.

[Coach34]

Way too many people just assuming a win against Vandy.

I'm with ya. If they play the kid that is mobile- we may be in for a battle

[Commercecomet24]

Dont get me started about those 2.

Yeah I had kind of wiped them fron my
memory until this thread!

[Commercecomet24]

Way too many people just assuming a win against Vandy.

Yeah they gave usce all they could handle(and I know usce isn't very good) but Can't overlook them for sure.

[Activated Alpha]

2-4 with wins against Vandy and TN State. Sorry just the way I see it after being embarrassed last week. Yes I know it was against Alabama, but I will remain bitter against Leach until he wins again against a quality opponent.

[Todd4State]

He's hurting.


My guess is he gets a shot Saturday and plays. He will gut it out and play decently- we will beat a garbage team by 20.

And we wonder why none of the other QB's play a snap

Kind of my same thoughts. He will be heavily treated and will be able to go. Probably.

[Todd4State]

Looking at stats I think we have a decent chance to finish strong.

What we know is we are a work in progress passing the ball and we have a QB with an AC sprain. What stops us/kills us is either an elite pass rusher like Anderson from Alabama or turnovers.

I believe Alabama was an outlier. The team wasn't mentally into it and intimidated and as I said they had a super elite pass rusher. What we normally are is an offense that scores somewhere between 24-30 points a game so far and can't overcome turnovers. We typically control TOP and even when all hell breaks lose and we're playing Alabama we can still at least move the ball between the 20's.

Our defense has been more of a disappointment as they have regressed. We are 12th in sacks and tied for last with Vanderbilt in TFL. We are 9th in interceptions and 4th tied with a host of others with 2 fumble recoveries. We are 10th in turnover margin as a team. None of this is good for a defense designed to create havoc. The eye test sees a team that is poor at tackling, busts too many coverages, and consistently loses contain when rushing the QB and having a chance to get a sack. It has been a bad mess.

Reason for optimism right?

I see two likely wins and essentially going by the raw data four toss ups.

The good news is in several statistics we've played some of the best defenses in the SEC in terms of producing interceptions (turnovers) and rushing the passer on our schedule. We also have two of the worst pass defenses left on our schedule in Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Assuming Will is healthy that should be an opportunity to produce some stats. Not to mention Tennessee State.

We also face the bottom four defenses in the SEC at producing interceptions. The one defense that's right now the best at producing interceptions on our schedule? Vanderbilt. Yep- Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, and Ole Miss all have five or less INT's on the season. To contrast that and give it some context. Alabama has 10 and LSU and A&M both have 7 INT's on the year.

Now I'm not saying that we're going to light up Kentucky, Arkansas, or Auburn...or even Ole Miss. But what I am saying is that IF we can take care of the ball against those teams and score in our typical range of 24-30 range we'll have a chance. And I'm assuming that none of those teams have a Will Anderson clone and Auburn and Kentucky may very well have someone like that. So you know assuming = ass u me. Maybe.

Now our defense for all it's faults is clearly stronger against the run. Which I believe is a big reason why we beat Texas A&M. We're still third in the SEC in rush defense which is pretty darn good. Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky are 11, 13, and 14 in the SEC in passing respectively. Texas A&M for comparison is 12. Alabama and LSU are 2 and 5. (I just want to type this) MSU is number one in passing. The concerning thing is Ole Miss is three and Auburn is 6. However both Ole Miss and Auburn appear to be becoming more and more run heavy and may continue to regress statistically as the season goes on. We'll see. Regardless they are still much better at passing than the other four SEC teams I mentioned in the 11-14 range. Basically what it really tells me is based on the stats we're probably going to have to win shootouts with Auburn and Ole Miss likely and our TOP could be even more key in those games potentially. The other big question is can we maintain our strong run defense against the 1, 4, 5, and 7 rushing teams in the conference in Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky? So far we have played number 8 A&M, 9 Alabama, and 12 LSU for context.

X-factor- Brandon Ruiz. If there is one good thing about the Alabama game this was it. He looked good on all of his field goals and his absence may have cost us at least the LSU and Memphis games alone not to mention a few points against Texas A&M. He's also normally an automatic touchback on kickoffs which neutralizes the other teams return games even though yes, I am aware Alabama had a few good returns. But I'll give Ruiz a pass on that given that it was his first game back and the kickoffs were not terrible distance wise in general.

All of that is to say have no idea what the hell is about to happen but we have a chance.

[Dawgsfanalongtime77]

3-3 is the most realistic. Vandy, tenn st, Arky. Wins.

[basedog]

I just don't see the sunshine. This is Vandy's last chance for a victory until they plan Missouri and one of two of Msu being favored. It could go either way and that is awful to think.

[Saltydog]

2-4 likely IMO. UK and Upig are both good teams and physical and I don't see us beating them, much less Ole Miss and Auburn.

[TrapGame]

Way too many people just assuming a win against Vandy.

Even Will playing hurt we should handle Vandy.

If we don't b/c Leach refuses to adjust his plan, i.e. just run the ****ing ball more.

Then I might be done on the Leach Era.

[Hambone]

Corral is hurt. If he takes too many more hits he may be out by the egg owl. IF that happens, change my prediction to 4-2.

On the same page, IF Will is unable to play, change mine to 2-4.

[PMDawg]

I think 3-3 is MOST likely, with 2-4 real close, probability wise. 4-2 or even 5-1 are possible, but not likely, as is 1-5.

So, I'm leaning towards 3-3, but 2-4 wouldn't surprise me one bit.

[Liverpooldawg]

2-4, with the obvious two wins.

[Santiago]

Corral is hurt. If he takes too many more hits he may be out by the egg owl. IF that happens, change my prediction to 4-2.

On the same page, IF Will is unable to play, change mine to 2-4.

Even though Will is hurt, Corral running so much is the other problem with a running QB. Better have at least 2 durable QB's in SEC play.
Ole Miss is about to face some good DLines, in Aggies and Auburn, and LSU is not that bad either.

[Maverick91]

Looking at stats I think we have a decent chance to finish strong.

What we know is we are a work in progress passing the ball and we have a QB with an AC sprain. What stops us/kills us is either an elite pass rusher like Anderson from Alabama or turnovers.

I believe Alabama was an outlier. The team wasn't mentally into it and intimidated and as I said they had a super elite pass rusher. What we normally are is an offense that scores somewhere between 24-30 points a game so far and can't overcome turnovers. We typically control TOP and even when all hell breaks lose and we're playing Alabama we can still at least move the ball between the 20's.

Our defense has been more of a disappointment as they have regressed. We are 12th in sacks and tied for last with Vanderbilt in TFL. We are 9th in interceptions and 4th tied with a host of others with 2 fumble recoveries. We are 10th in turnover margin as a team. None of this is good for a defense designed to create havoc. The eye test sees a team that is poor at tackling, busts too many coverages, and consistently loses contain when rushing the QB and having a chance to get a sack. It has been a bad mess.

Reason for optimism right?

I see two likely wins and essentially going by the raw data four toss ups.

The good news is in several statistics we've played some of the best defenses in the SEC in terms of producing interceptions (turnovers) and rushing the passer on our schedule. We also have two of the worst pass defenses left on our schedule in Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Assuming Will is healthy that should be an opportunity to produce some stats. Not to mention Tennessee State.

We also face the bottom four defenses in the SEC at producing interceptions. The one defense that's right now the best at producing interceptions on our schedule? Vanderbilt. Yep- Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, and Ole Miss all have five or less INT's on the season. To contrast that and give it some context. Alabama has 10 and LSU and A&M both have 7 INT's on the year.

Now I'm not saying that we're going to light up Kentucky, Arkansas, or Auburn...or even Ole Miss. But what I am saying is that IF we can take care of the ball against those teams and score in our typical range of 24-30 range we'll have a chance. And I'm assuming that none of those teams have a Will Anderson clone and Auburn and Kentucky may very well have someone like that. So you know assuming = ass u me. Maybe.

Now our defense for all it's faults is clearly stronger against the run. Which I believe is a big reason why we beat Texas A&M. We're still third in the SEC in rush defense which is pretty darn good. Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky are 11, 13, and 14 in the SEC in passing respectively. Texas A&M for comparison is 12. Alabama and LSU are 2 and 5. (I just want to type this) MSU is number one in passing. The concerning thing is Ole Miss is three and Auburn is 6. However both Ole Miss and Auburn appear to be becoming more and more run heavy and may continue to regress statistically as the season goes on. We'll see. Regardless they are still much better at passing than the other four SEC teams I mentioned in the 11-14 range. Basically what it really tells me is based on the stats we're probably going to have to win shootouts with Auburn and Ole Miss likely and our TOP could be even more key in those games potentially. The other big question is can we maintain our strong run defense against the 1, 4, 5, and 7 rushing teams in the conference in Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky? So far we have played number 8 A&M, 9 Alabama, and 12 LSU for context.

X-factor- Brandon Ruiz. If there is one good thing about the Alabama game this was it. He looked good on all of his field goals and his absence may have cost us at least the LSU and Memphis games alone not to mention a few points against Texas A&M. He's also normally an automatic touchback on kickoffs which neutralizes the other teams return games even though yes, I am aware Alabama had a few good returns. But I'll give Ruiz a pass on that given that it was his first game back and the kickoffs were not terrible distance wise in general.

All of that is to say have no idea what the hell is about to happen but we have a chance.

Bro! Good stuff. Good reasons for optimism.

[Dak Holliday]

I?d like to see 3-3 or better, but can see 2-4 or worse, especially if Will is hurt and no one else can run the system.

[PGHBulldogBG]

3-3 is my projection assuming Will is healthy for UK. If he isn?t healthy 2-4 and we wrap up the year. We have to beat UK at home because I don?t see us winning any of the other 3. Maybe a slight chance with ole Miss but not @ark or @aub

[Jarius]

I just don't see the sunshine. This is Vandy's last chance for a victory until they plan Missouri and one of two of Msu being favored. It could go either way and that is awful to think.

I wish I could get Vegas odds on the state / Vandy game being a game that “could go either way”. Unfortunately Vegas deals in reality and not on emotionally unstable fans.

[dawgday166]

I'm hoping and thinking 3-3. We get the third win from either Ark, UK or OM, not sure which one.

UK is better but we have had their number over the years. Ark seems less likely since on road. OM just because the egg bowl never goes like it should and we are at home.

Only under Mullen were we able to catch up and even the series. They were ahead in series before then. Everyone acts like UK should be a given for us but historically we're on par with each other.

This year I think they're better than we are.

[msudawg1200]

3-3 the last 6 years.

Haven't beat us in Davis Wade sine 2008 better known as the last year of Croom.

[ImissCityBagel]

90% Vanderbilt
35% Kentucky
50% Arkansas
40% Auburn
99% Tennessee State
50% Ole Miss

I hope I am wrong about Kentucky, but they seem pretty strong this year.
If we played spoiler to Ole Miss that would give me warm fuzzies.