Our QB stats...

[Dawgology]

are enough to win games. I listened to Matt Wyatt's podcast today and he pointed out that Rogers' stats are spectacular (and they are) and anyone reading the stat lines would have thought that we won the game.

He's right...too a point. This is why I'm not sure Leach's offense will work in the SEC. Most QB's with this type of average have a runninggame that generates average yardage and a host of TD's to go along with it. We don't have that. Our ENTIRE offense is through the air. This means that a QB in this system will need to provide at least 4 or 5 TD's per game, and have a near perfect completion percentage by themselves to guarantee a win. I just don't think that is possible.

361 yards passing per game sounds GREAT...except when you realize it's complemented by 45 yards per game on the ground.

[confucius say]

Leach has been vocal the last 3 days about the need to stretch the field more

[msstate7]

Ranks within sec...
Passer rating: 10 of 13
QBR: 12 of 15
Yds/att: 11 of 13

Ranks nationally of defenses faced (total defense)...
La tech: 130 of 130
Nc st: 16 of 130
Memphis: 123 of 130

[CadaverDawg]

Ranks within sec...
Passer rating: 10 of 13
QBR: 12 of 15
Yds/att: 11 of 13

Ranks nationally of defenses faced (total defense)...
La tech: 130 of 130
Nc st: 16 of 130
Memphis: 123 of 130

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/0YlDrlYDGr2rgt7Vler4nue5Ml_qqw5-xTQuwKM2N9Igew3alTuQWhZqI54Z5MyDTfFXZ8GSzkCOmZzEhf mBk-dI_AfIwjsY2OBomOzl

[msstate7]

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/0YlDrlYDGr2rgt7Vler4nue5Ml_qqw5-xTQuwKM2N9Igew3alTuQWhZqI54Z5MyDTfFXZ8GSzkCOmZzEhf mBk-dI_AfIwjsY2OBomOzl

I hear a lot of praise for Wyatt here; but if he's using words like "spectacular" to describe Rogers' play, Wyatt is a hack. To be fair, "spectacular" shouldn't be used to describe anyone on our offense

[confucius say]

How is the qbr and passer rating above calculated? Obviously completion percentage, yards, lack of int, and completions don't weigh heavily. I'm guessing explosive plays or TD per attempt weigh heavily?

[CadaverDawg]

I hear a lot of praise for Wyatt here; but if he's using words like "spectacular" to describe Rogers' play, Wyatt is a hack. To be fair, "spectacular" shouldn't be used to describe anyone on our offense

Yeah, there's nothing about our offense that has been "spectacular". Barely anything that's been "good".

[msstate7]

How is the qbr and passer rating above calculated? Obviously completion percentage, yards, lack of int, and completions don't weigh heavily. I'm guessing explosive plays or TD per attempt weigh heavily?

Passer rating...
https://captaincalculator.com/sports/football/ncaa-passer-rating-calculator/

Qbr...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

[Coach34]

We are 11th in the SEC in total offense
We are 71st in the Country in Total Offense and we havent played an SEC game yet.

That should tellyou all you need to know. This shit aint gonna get better after playing LSU, A&M, and Bammer in our next 3 games I assure you.

[ShotgunDawg]

I heard Matt say this as well but he's wrong.

Going 10-11 for 70 yards on a drive isn't the same as going 3-6 for 70 yards on a drive.

Going 3-6 drastically lowers the chances of 17 ups and penalties that stall the drive while also showing you can rebound from a mistake.

Same yards, lower completion percentage, yet a much better/repeatable offense

[confucius say]

Passer rating...
https://captaincalculator.com/sports/football/ncaa-passer-rating-calculator/

Qbr...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

Got ya. So the divided by factor is pass attempts. That makes sense then.

[confucius say]

We are 11th in the SEC in total offense
We are 71st in the Country in Total Offense and we havent played an SEC game yet.

That should tellyou all you need to know. This shit aint gonna get better after playing LSU, A&M, and Bammer in our next 3 games I assure you.

I agree. Which is why Memphis hurts so much. That was almost a must win to get to 6.

[Cowbell]

Leach has been vocal the last 3 days about the need to stretch the field more

Just in time for the best secondary we've seen all year

[Dak Holliday]

I said this in another thread, so please excuse if you?ve already seen it, but I think it applies here, too.
I have heard CML?s offense described as a death by papercuts. Annoys DCs with underneath stuff hoping they move to stop it, making them vulnerable in the middle and up top. That coach that OM had that?s now at UNC runs a variation of AirRaid and if you saw any of his games at OM, they stacked up stats from 20-20, but couldn?t score when the field compressed in the red zone. If Tamu didn?t hit for a long pass, they couldn?t score. The stats can be deceiving. Much like OM in a similar system, our stats look great on paper, but don?t really benefit us where it counts. I hate to say it, but I just don?t think one dimensional football can work unless everyone is one dimensional and they aren?t.

[ShotgunDawg]

I said this in another thread, so please excuse if you?ve already seen it, but I think it applies here, too.
I have heard CML?s offense described as a death by papercuts. Annoys DCs with underneath stuff hoping they move to stop it, making them vulnerable in the middle and up top. That coach that OM had that?s now at UNC runs a variation of AirRaid and if you saw any of his games at OM, they stacked up stats from 20-20, but couldn?t score when the field compressed in the red zone. If Tamu didn?t hit for a long pass, they couldn?t score. The stats can be deceiving. Much like OM in a similar system, our stats look great on paper, but don?t really benefit us where it counts. I hate to say it, but I just don?t think one dimensional football can work unless everyone is one dimensional and they aren?t.

Can you link where it's called death by a thousand paper cuts?

[Dak Holliday]

No, sir. I didn?t read it, just heard it described that way by people speaking. I apologize, I didn?t mean to come across as if it were an article.

[Dak Holliday]

So, I searched it, and it seems to come from Washington State.
?Even with the ?death by a thousand paper cuts? machine that is the Air Raid, if a few of those cuts don?t draw blood, it can throw the whole operation off kilter.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cougcenter.com/platform/amp/2019/11/8/20954922/coachs-corner-wsu-cal-defense

[Bothrops]

We eat up a hell of a lot of clock, so us scoring is imperative.

[Maroonthirteen]

Got ya. So the divided by factor is pass attempts. That makes sense then.

Minshew's PR was ranked around 30 (147.). He was #1 in attempts that year. The low PR is related to the offensive scheme.

[confucius say]

Minshew's PR was ranked around 30 (147.). He was #1 in attempts that year. The low PR is related to the offensive scheme.

Yea that was my thought, that it is largely scheme-dictated due to the attempts.

[msstate7]

Minshew was 28th in PR and 22nd in QBR after a full season. After facing 2 of the worst 7 defenses in CFB, Rogers is 55th in PR and 68th in qbr

[Matt3467]

Rogers is on track for over 4300yds 32tds 4ints

On paper that is amazing. If someone told you at the beginning of the year Rogers would have a year like that we'd all be optimistic. I think the issue that is hard to see on paper is his lack of taking shots down the field. Those numbers could be much higher if he took those shots. I do think that as the year progresses so will his confidence. Once Rogers starts to stretch the field that will open our run game up. It may not be huge numbers but our run game will get better.

[Coach34]

So, I searched it, and it seems to come from Washington State.
?Even with the ?death by a thousand paper cuts? machine that is the Air Raid, if a few of those cuts don?t draw blood, it can throw the whole operation off kilter.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cougcenter.com/platform/amp/2019/11/8/20954922/coachs-corner-wsu-cal-defense

It's more like death from boredom

[Maroonthirteen]

Minshew was 28th in PR and 22nd in QBR after a full season.

Minshew was NOT in the top 20 in either rating. Yet, he lead the nation in attempts and was #2 in yardage.

[msstate7]

Minshew was NOT in the top 20 in either rating. Yet, he lead the nation in attempts and was #2 in yardage.

Right, which is why passing yards is a shallow stat when you pass all the time. Passer rating weighs each pass, so you can compare qbs equally

[Captain Falcon]

All those yards mean very little if we're not ending drives with TD's. We are 7th nationally in passing yards per game but ranked in the 70's in offensive TD's scored. I have seen people talk plenty about our struggles in the second half on Saturday, but we had possession for the first 11:40 of the game and somehow were down 7-3 after that stretch.

Right now we are like a baseball team that gets a lot of people on base via walk or single but can't get extra base hits. Or a volume shooter in basketball who scores 25 points but on 10-40 shooting. You cannot expect to do those things consistently and be able to beat many teams.

[Dawgology]

All those yards mean very little if we're not ending drives with TD's. We are 7th nationally in passing yards per game but ranked in the 70's in offensive TD's scored. I have seen people talk plenty about our struggles in the second half on Saturday, but we had possession for the first 11:40 of the game and somehow were down 7-3 after that stretch.

Right now we are like a baseball team that gets a lot of people on base via walk or single but can't get extra base hits. Or a volume shooter in basketball who scores 25 points but on 10-40 shooting. You cannot expect to do those things consistently and be able to beat many teams.

This can DIRECTLY correlate to lack of a running game. In the red zone you can?t stretch the field you have to have a strong running game on the goaline or you end up with a lot of field goals, end zone INT?s, or trips to the red zone with NO points.

[confucius say]

Minshew was 28th in PR and 22nd in QBR after a full season. After facing 2 of the worst 7 defenses in CFB, Rogers is 55th in PR and 68th in qbr

Let's compare Will's numbers as a Sr to Minshew's posted above.

I imagine Minshew numbers are a sophomore at East Carolina in 2016 we're not better than Will's.

[dawgman15]

Let's compare Will's numbers as a Sr to Minshew's.

I imagine Minshew numbers are a sophomore at East Carolina in 2016 we're not better than Will's.

They don't listen to things rational like that

[Tbonewannabe]

Let's compare Will's numbers as a Sr to Minshew's posted above.

I imagine Minshew numbers are a sophomore at East Carolina in 2016 we're not better than Will's.

He also wasn't in Mike Leach's system. Not sure the comparison makes much sense.

[confucius say]

He also wasn't in Mike Leach's system. Not sure the comparison makes much sense.

He was as a senior. Let's compare wills numbers as a senior in this system to minshews.

True, Minshew wasn't in the system as a sophomore. Will is. But I expect minshews rating still was not much higher than wills despite being in a system that seemingly is more favorable to having a higher rating.

[TrapGame]

Let's compare Will's numbers as a Sr to Minshew's posted above.

I imagine Minshew numbers are a sophomore at East Carolina in 2016 we're not better than Will's.

Wait a minute. Didn't Minshew get benched at some point at East Carolina?

[CadaverDawg]

Rogers is on track for over 4300yds 32tds 4ints

On paper that is amazing. If someone told you at the beginning of the year Rogers would have a year like that we'd all be optimistic. I think the issue that is hard to see on paper is his lack of taking shots down the field. Those numbers could be much higher if he took those shots. I do think that as the year progresses so will his confidence. Once Rogers starts to stretch the field that will open our run game up. It may not be huge numbers but our run game will get better.

We're also on pace to finish .500 in G5.

Those numbers mean nothing against who we've played, and what we've done with them.

[Coach34]

Let's see where his pace is after the next 3 games

[Dak Holliday]

It's more like death from boredom
I have to admit, I do miss seeing 7 run through defenses. It?s hard to imagine that our offense is more a boring product in a pass heavy scheme. I think the hardest change is the loss of our identity. We came from the mud. We may not have always won, but if we lost, atleast you knew that you had been in a fight. I could handle licking my wounds if I could see the lumps you got in the fight.