Look no further than to our own team for the importance

[Coach34]

of returning starters in football.

2009- Mullen takes over and the team goes 5-7
2010- Plenty of starters returning- Mullen improved to 9-4
2011- team loses linemen and key starters- falls back to 7-6
2012- team returns more than half of its starters- goes 8-5 with a bowl game loss
2013- loss of starters. Young team also has QB injuries
2014- 17 or 18 starters returned- team started the season undefeated and ranked #1 for a time
2015- lost 4/5 starters on the OL plus the starting TB. Went 9-4 with a bowl win
2016- lost QB and others- slipped back to 6-7 with a bowl win
2017- team had experience and improved to 9-4
2018- Coaching change kept this team from winning 10-plus. Team was loaded
2019- lost starters but should have still been pretty good- went 6-7
2020- transition and lost starters led to losing season
2021- team has starters returning and a year older- better record expected.

Thats how it works with almost all programs. It's actually abnormal for a team with lots of returning starters to be the same or worse than the season before. Shit- Clemson lost their QB and couldnt score a TD against against Georgia. Losing starters affects everyone not named Bama

Auburn returned tons of starters in 2017- including their whole OL. What they do? Won the West
Auburn lost lots of guys on the OL and offense in 2018- what they do? 5th in the West
LSU returned a ton in 2019- what they do? Won a Natty
LSU 2020 lost all those guys- returned only 2-3 starters. What they do? 5-5

Returning starters tell the tale more times than not

[reno hightower]

of returning starters in football.

2009- Mullen takes over and the team goes 5-7
2010- Plenty of starters returning- Mullen improved to 9-4
2011- team loses linemen and key starters- falls back to 7-6
2012- team returns more than half of its starters- goes 8-5 with a bowl game loss
2013- loss of starters. Young team also has QB injuries
2014- 17 or 18 starters returned- team started the season undefeated and ranked #1 for a time
2015- lost 4/5 starters on the OL plus the starting TB. Went 9-4 with a bowl win
2016- lost QB and others- slipped back to 6-7 with a bowl win
2017- team had experience and improved to 9-4
2018- Coaching change kept this team from winning 10-plus. Team was loaded
2019- lost starters but should have still been pretty good- went 6-7
2020- transition and lost starters led to losing season
2021- team has starters returning and a year older- better record expected.

Thats how it works with almost all programs. It's actually abnormal for a team with lots of returning starters to be the same or worse than the season before. Shit- Clemson lost their QB and couldnt score a TD against against Georgia. Losing starters affects everyone not named Bama

Auburn returned tons of starters in 2017- including their whole OL. What they do? Won the West
Auburn lost lots of guys on the OL and offense in 2018- what they do? 5th in the West
LSU returned a ton in 2019- what they do? Won a Natty
LSU 2020 lost all those guys- returned only 2-3 starters. What they do? 5-5

Returning starters tell the tale more times than not


Does this change your win total?

[Prediction? Pain.]

Experience definitely matters. Deep dives into returning production -- which I'll not-so-humbly say that I did on SB Nation (https://www.forwhomthecowbelltolls.com/2015/6/11/8764923/fun-with-charts-returning-starters-experience-and-the-glory-of-x-and) months before Bill Connelly released his first annual returning-experience rankings (https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/4/9254347/a-better-way-to-measure-returning-experience) -- reveal lots of interesting stuff. For instance, Bill C.'s data shows that the strongest correlation between a team's performance and its returning production is experience at DB and WR (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/31/18204093/2019-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience):


The higher the number, the more likely returning production in these areas is to coincide with strong offense:

Receiving yards correlation: 0.324
Passing yards correlation: 0.234
Rushing yards correlation: 0.168
Offensive line starts correlation: 0.153

. . . .

On defense, where returning production appears to matter more in general, the correlations are both stronger and more diverse. Since teams use different numbers of defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs, I look at both unit-specific categories and those for defense as a whole.

Defensive back tackles correlation: 0.404
Defensive back passes defensed correlation: 0.377
Overall tackles correlation: 0.325
Overall passes defensed correlation: 0.324
Defensive back tackles for loss correlation: 0.299
Overall tackles for loss correlation: 0.269
Linebacker tackles for loss correlation: 0.250
Linebacker tackles correlation: 0.250
Linebacker passes defensed correlation: 0.228

That?s right, the correlations for defensive back tackles and passes defensed is stronger than the correlations for overall tackles.

The strongest correlations on the defensive line, by the way: 0.154 for tackles, 0.119 for tackles for loss. Continuity in the trenches does not appear to be worth what we tend to think it?s worth. But continuity in the passing game, on both sides of the ball, means a ton.

For what it's worth, here are the returning production rankings as of a few months ago:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5pbkk1WEAQMxE1?format=png&name=large

Another way to look at player experience is simply by their age. Even if they weren't starters or significant contributors the year before, presumably older dudes with more time in the weight room, at practice, etc. bring something extra to the table. Phil Steele publishes a chart with that data every year for each team's two-deep. Here's a link (https://philsteele.com/2021/08/19/2-deep-class-breakdown-2021/) for this year's chart. By that metric, we're 97th nationally.

Just glancing over that data, it looks like U. Miss. is the only SEC team with a decided advantage in both returning production and returning age. We bring back a average amount of production from last year, it's just from dudes who are really young.

[Commercecomet24]

Experience definitely matters. Deep dives into returning production -- which I'll not-so-humbly say that I did on SB Nation (https://www.forwhomthecowbelltolls.com/2015/6/11/8764923/fun-with-charts-returning-starters-experience-and-the-glory-of-x-and) months before Bill Connelly released his first annual returning-experience rankings (https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/9/4/9254347/a-better-way-to-measure-returning-experience) -- reveal lots of interesting stuff. For instance, Bill C.'s data shows that the strongest correlation between a team's performance and its returning production is experience at DB and WR (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/31/18204093/2019-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience):



For what it's worth, here are the returning production rankings as of a few months ago:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5pbkk1WEAQMxE1?format=png&name=large

Another way to look at player experience is simply by their age. Even if they weren't starters of significant contributors the year before, presumably older dudes with more time in the weight room, at practice, etc. bring something extra to the table. Phil Steele publishes a chart with that data every year for each team's two-deep. Here's a link (https://philsteele.com/2021/08/19/2-deep-class-breakdown-2021/) for this year's chart. By that metric, we're 97th nationally.

Just glancing over that data, it looks like U. Miss. is the only SEC team with a decided advantage in both returning production and returning age. We bring back a average amount of production from last year, it's just from dudes who are really young.

Great stuff! According to this we have equivalent returning production as NC State. Thanks for sharing this!

[RezDog7]

of returning starters in football.

2009- Mullen takes over and the team goes 5-7
2010- Plenty of starters returning- Mullen improved to 9-4
2011- team loses linemen and key starters- falls back to 7-6
2012- team returns more than half of its starters- goes 8-5 with a bowl game loss
2013- loss of starters. Young team also has QB injuries
2014- 17 or 18 starters returned- team started the season undefeated and ranked #1 for a time
2015- lost 4/5 starters on the OL plus the starting TB. Went 9-4 with a bowl win
2016- lost QB and others- slipped back to 6-7 with a bowl win
2017- team had experience and improved to 9-4
2018- Coaching change kept this team from winning 10-plus. Team was loaded
2019- lost starters but should have still been pretty good- went 6-7
2020- transition and lost starters led to losing season
2021- team has starters returning and a year older- better record expected.

Thats how it works with almost all programs. It's actually abnormal for a team with lots of returning starters to be the same or worse than the season before. Shit- Clemson lost their QB and couldnt score a TD against against Georgia. Losing starters affects everyone not named Bama

Auburn returned tons of starters in 2017- including their whole OL. What they do? Won the West
Auburn lost lots of guys on the OL and offense in 2018- what they do? 5th in the West
LSU returned a ton in 2019- what they do? Won a Natty
LSU 2020 lost all those guys- returned only 2-3 starters. What they do? 5-5

Returning starters tell the tale more times than not

Does that mean you will quit being a douche if they lose Saturday? You can't have it both ways. You've spent all your energy explaining why we won't win the game but then bitch when we don't.

[Gutter Cobreh]

How does this account for transfers the immediate impact they have versus the "old days" when transferring resulted in sitting out a year?

Our WR core has improved significantly from last year when we essentially only had Walley.. Polk had 10 receptions last game. The addition of Gardner, Polk, and Calvin should impact the first point of WR and DB impact, correct?

[Prediction? Pain.]

Great stuff! According to this we have equivalent returning production as NC State. Thanks for sharing this!

Yes, and we also have identically talented rosters per 247 Sports. In the national talent composite rankings -- which cover teams' entire rosters, including transfers -- we're 29th and NC State is 35th. The teams' avg player ratings are within 0.07 of one another. (We're 86.74, they're 86.67.)

The three biggest differences to me: (1) NC State relies on more upperclassmen in the two deep across the board, so they're not as young as us and have more continuity up and down the roster (they returned a similar % of production in 2020 as they do this year whereas we were starting from scratch last year (110th nationally in 2020 returning production); (2) They're in Year 9 under the same head coach while we're on our third head coach in the past five years and are in Year 2 of a complete overhaul of our offensive and defensive schemes; and (3) They return age and production from a really good team last year whereas we return production from a team that struggled, especially on offense.

[Prediction? Pain.]

How does this account for transfers the immediate impact they have versus the "old days" when transferring resulted in sitting out a year?

Our WR core has improved significantly from last year when we essentially only had Walley.. Polk had 10 receptions last game. The addition of Gardner, Polk, and Calvin should impact the first point of WR and DB impact, correct?

Great points. And I don't know the answer. Returning production accounts for transfers but how that production differs practically from production that was on the team the year before is beyond me. Based upon Polk and Calvin -- man, thank goodness for those dudes, right? -- it may not matter where the production came from.

And keep in mind that the data is based on nationwide stats. There are no doubt outliers at either end of the curve. Still, it's interesting that on balance the correlation is strongest with returning WRs and DBs.

[Commercecomet24]

Yes, and we also have identically talented rosters per 247 Sports. In the national talent composite rankings -- which cover teams' entire rosters, including transfers -- we're 29th and NC State is 35th. The team's avg player ratings are within 0.07 of one another. (We're 86.74, they're 86.67.)

The three biggest differences to me: (1) NC State relies on more upperclassmen in the two deep across the board, so they're not as young as us and have more continuity up and down the roster (they returned a similar % of production in 2020 as they do this year); (2) They're in Year 9 under the same head coach while we're on our third head coach in the past five years and are in Year 2 of a complete overhaul of our offensive and defensive schemes; and (3) They return age and production from a really good team last year whereas we return production from a team that struggled, especially on offense.

Appreciate it. You always bring some great statistical analysis. Always good to see it in black and white instead of folks on here just guessing.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Appreciate it. You always bring some great statistical analysis. Always good to see it in black and white instead of folks on here just guessing.

Very true! Pain always bringing the heat!

[Commercecomet24]

Very true! Pain always bringing the heat!

Absolutely, wish he would post more!

[William Tecumsah Sherman]

I?ve always said this. I want 6-8 wins and we take our shot at 9-10 every 4-5 years with a senior laden team

[Prediction? Pain.]

Absolutely, wish he would post more!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJbShe2zEqI&ab_channel=LeftyFrizzell-Topic

[Hot Rock]

OK, So we have one returning starter on the OLine this year in the same position they played last year. So, everyone is new there except for Charles Cross. Gotcha

QB & RB - new guys . Kylin Hill & KJ were your starters last year

WR - Two brand new guys on the team and two returning starters and one of them probably won't really be starting about half the time in Williams, plus one was out the first week. Hmmmmm

So the whole team is new on offense. I gotcha.. We are supposed to suck this year and get way better next year.


And only 4 returning starters from the beginning of the year on the whole offense. They better suck or your narrative is going to be flushed.

[Commercecomet24]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJbShe2zEqI&ab_channel=LeftyFrizzell-Topic

Rep Given. That's great!

[Coach34]

OK, So we have one returning starter on the OLine this year in the same position they played last year. So, everyone is new there except for Charles Cross. Gotcha

QB & RB - new guys . Kylin Hill & KJ were your starters last year

WR - Two brand new guys on the team and two returning starters and one of them probably won't really be starting about half the time in Williams, plus one was out the first week. Hmmmmm
.

haha thats not how it works. You start half a season last year? You were a starter. You started on the OL? You were a starter

One thing about next year is we will be losing some OL guys. So that could be another problem for us in 2022

[Hot Rock]

haha thats not how it works. You start half a season last year? You were a starter. You started on the OL? You were a starter

One thing about next year is we will be losing some OL guys. So that could be another problem for us in 2022

So, how does it compare to be starting a bunch of soph's vs 4 & 5th year seniors? Returning starters is a garbage thing if they are fr forced into games before they are ready.

You been coaching for years, how you feel if your QB was a soph, both your rb were soph half your WR were brand new to the team and only one OL was playing the same position as last year.

I know this, I would expect issues.

[Coach34]

So, how does it compare to be starting a bunch of soph's vs 4 & 5th year seniors? Returning starters is a garbage thing if they are fr forced into games before they are ready.

You been coaching for years, how you feel if your QB was a soph, both your rb were soph half your WR were brand new to the team and only one OL was playing the same position as last year.

I know this, I would expect issues.

My offense in 2020 started 6 Sophs, 3 SR's, and 2 Jr's. We averaged 34 PPG and rolled because 4 of those Sophs had started a few games as Freshmen. Experience and plays played on the field is what you want.

I certainly give NC State the advantage because of experience but we have guys with starts and experience. Our OL is old by college standards. 6 of our top 9 have 4 or 5 years in college. Thats huge for us. We have lots of experience at WR. We are young in spots but we certainly have experience in areas of this team

[sandjunky]

of returning starters in football.

2009- Mullen takes over and the team goes 5-7
2010- Plenty of starters returning- Mullen improved to 9-4
2011- team loses linemen and key starters- falls back to 7-6
2012- team returns more than half of its starters- goes 8-5 with a bowl game loss
2013- loss of starters. Young team also has QB injuries
2014- 17 or 18 starters returned- team started the season undefeated and ranked #1 for a time
2015- lost 4/5 starters on the OL plus the starting TB. Went 9-4 with a bowl win
2016- lost QB and others- slipped back to 6-7 with a bowl win
2017- team had experience and improved to 9-4
2018- Coaching change kept this team from winning 10-plus. Team was loaded
2019- lost starters but should have still been pretty good- went 6-7
2020- transition and lost starters led to losing season
2021- team has starters returning and a year older- better record expected.

Thats how it works with almost all programs. It's actually abnormal for a team with lots of returning starters to be the same or worse than the season before. Shit- Clemson lost their QB and couldnt score a TD against against Georgia. Losing starters affects everyone not named Bama

Auburn returned tons of starters in 2017- including their whole OL. What they do? Won the West
Auburn lost lots of guys on the OL and offense in 2018- what they do? 5th in the West
LSU returned a ton in 2019- what they do? Won a Natty
LSU 2020 lost all those guys- returned only 2-3 starters. What they do? 5-5

Returning starters tell the tale more times than not

🤔