Just looking at some stats

[cbrunt29]

Total yards per game this year:
bama-452 miss state-459
Passing yards per game:
bama- 243 miss state-249
Rushing yards per game:
bama-208 miss state- 209

Not saying we win, and dont think we will, but statistcally we don't look too bad compared to them

[BeastMan]

They are 1rst in the nation in points allowed- 10.6 ppg
They are 13th in the nation in scoring offense- 40.9 ppg

/thread

[cbrunt29]

They are 1rst in the nation in points allowed- 10.6 ppg
They are 13th in the nation in scoring offense- 40.9 ppg/thread

Yes, saw that stat too. That's why I said I don't think we win

[Political Hack]

This could give some clues into Sagarin's formula. I do t think it's public, but this game could be a pretty good indicator of what stats they're using to project games.

Calling Engie....

[messageboardsuperhero]

We have very little trouble moving the ball against most teams- we just have a problem shoving it in the end zone sometimes. It'll be tough sledding today.

Also, I wonder what Bama's ppg allowed is since they gave up 40+ to A&M? I bet it's absurdly low.

[BeastMan]

Yes, saw that stat too. That's why I said I don't think we win

I wasn't knocking your post. Bama is weird statistically. They aren't good in a lot of categories but they are great where it matters the most. For instance, they are bottom of the conference in TFLs and sacks. One would think that negative plays created are indicative of a good defense.

[bluelightstar]

We have very little trouble moving the ball against most teams- we just have a problem shoving it in the end zone sometimes. It'll be tough sledding today.

Also, I wonder what Bama's ppg allowed is since they gave up 40+ to A&M? I bet it's absurdly low.

Just over 6 points a game. Gave up 42 to A&M. Given up 43 total in the 7 games since.

[ShotgunDawg]

I wasn't knocking your post. Bama is weird statistically. They aren't good in a lot of categories but they are great where it matters the most. For instance, they are bottom of the conference in TFLs and sacks. One would think that negative plays created are indicative of a good defense.

Bama and us are conundrums this year. We are better statistically than we are record wise, and they are just the opposite.

I'll say this, we are better this year than we were last year, and they are not as good this year as they were last year. But, the perceptions are just the opposite. IMO, the actual difference between these two teams is much much closer than the perception of these two teams.

I would not be the slightest bit shocked if we give them a tough game tonight. The deeper you dig on this game, the easier it is to see that.

Bama is getting a ton of credit for their dynasty, going for their 3rd national title, etc, and they should, but tonight we aren't playing against anyone but the Bama team that lines up in front of us, and that team isn't as talented as the one we played last year and we are much better than we were last year.

It's completely our fault, due to our record, but the perception of these two teams are off.

[slickdawg]

The only metric I have to compare is us vs. TAMU

Both State and Bama put up roughly equal numbers against TAMU in College Station. Both gave up about equal numbers.

The difference is that JFF puts up crazy numbers against everyone. Bama's D has been exceptional since. We'll see how ours responds, McCarron has been solid all season, he manages the game well, runs the offense well.

[QuadrupleOption]

The only metric I have to compare is us vs. TAMU

Both State and Bama put up roughly equal numbers against TAMU in College Station. Both gave up about equal numbers.

The difference is that JFF puts up crazy numbers against everyone. Bama's D has been exceptional since. We'll see how ours responds, McCarron has been solid all season, he manages the game well, runs the offense well.

Bama doesn't make mistakes on offense like we do either, which is going to be the difference here. Kind of like the South Carolina game.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

"It's completely our fault, due to our record, but the perception of these two teams are off"

Truer words have never been written. The difference goes back at least 40+ years - They expect to win, we are expected to lose. Against that mental edge, you have State teams that continue to shoot themselves in the foot with breakdowns in fundelmentals and discipline. Sure, Bama should beat us most years on talent alone but there are many years where we made the mental mistakes that kept us out of the win column. Lack of tradition is a killer in the SEC.

[Will James]

Cant look at football stats like baseball. Not the same, controlled environment.