Matt Wyatt is smart!

[Maverick91]

So, I was listening to his new Podcast, should go listen. "Better than average" He did put it up on Youtube.

He brought us Leach's first years and the averages at those spots. So, I went and ran the numbers to look at them as well. Its pretty interesting.

2000: First Year Texas Tech

Passing average:
yards a game: 296
Completion percentage: 61
Att a Game: 51

Rushing average:
yards a game: 67
yards per rush: 2.8
att a game: 25



2012: First year at Wash. State
yards a game: 330
completion percentage: 58
att a game: 52

rushing average:
yards a game: 29
yards per rush: 1.4
att a game: 21

2020: First year at State
yards a game: 296
completion percentage: 67
att a game: 51

rushing average:
yards a game: 44
yards per rush: 2.4
att a game: 19

What is of note is the straight up consistency between the first years.

Now the second year jump is where is gets really neat to say the least.

Wash State:
30 more yards a game passing.
completion percentage went up 4%

rushing:
24 more yards per game.
average went up 1.5 yards
with att a game dropping 3.

Texas Tech:
40 more yards a game
completion percentage went up 7%

rushing:
15 more yards a game
average went up .7

My point I think we are underestimating the growth that these numbers show. I think his second year here will be his biggest year in stats growth. Prayerfully wins as well. But, stats are going to be pretty impressive I think.

[Dawgology]

So, I was listening to his new Podcast, should go listen. "Better than average" He did put it up on Youtube.

He brought us Leach's first years and the averages at those spots. So, I went and ran the numbers to look at them as well. Its pretty interesting.

2000: First Year Texas Tech

Passing average:
yards a game: 296
Completion percentage: 61
Att a Game: 51

Rushing average:
yards a game: 67
yards per rush: 2.8
att a game: 25



2012: First year at Wash. State
yards a game: 330
completion percentage: 58
att a game: 52

rushing average:
yards a game: 29
yards per rush: 1.4
att a game: 21

2020: First year at State
yards a game: 296
completion percentage: 67
att a game: 51

rushing average:
yards a game: 44
yards per rush: 2.4
att a game: 19

What is of note is the straight up consistency between the first years.

Now the second year jump is where is gets really neat to say the least.

Wash State:
30 more yards a game passing.
completion percentage went up 4%

rushing:
24 more yards per game.
average went up 1.5 yards
with att a game dropping 3.

Texas Tech:
40 more yards a game
completion percentage went up 7%

rushing:
15 more yards a game
average went up .7

My point I think we are underestimating the growth that these numbers show. I think his second year here will be his biggest year in stats growth. Prayerfully wins as well. But, stats are going to be pretty impressive I think.

How do the scoring or points per game look?

[Maverick91]

Texas Tech: It was really impressive.
2000 averaged 25 ppg 61st out of 116 teams
2001 averaged 33.5 ppg 22end out of 117 teams.

Wash State:
2012 averaged 20.4 ppg 108th out of 124 teams
2013 averaged 31 ppg 52nd out of 125 teams

State 2020:

21.4 ppg 110th out of 128 teams

we are on average to gain at least one more touchdown a game.

[Leroy Jenkins]

...and our numbers were vs an all SEC schedule, with a true Fr QB

[Maverick91]

...and our numbers were vs an all SEC schedule, with a true Fr QB

Dang! Very true.

[Dawgology]

An average 9.75 point increase. I?d take it in a heartbeat. 31 PPG with our defensive outlook would give us an 8 win season probably.

[KOdawg1]

I'll take a 6-7 point increase and ask no more questions.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

I've got high hopes for Mike Leach, and also some concerns. But here are a few points.

1. Last year we had an all-SEC schedule with our most used weapons being Marks, Dillon Johnson, Jaden Walley, and Will Rogers. All 4 were true freshmen.

2. Rushing attempts and yards per carry include sacks on passing plays. So if you call the exact same plays in a given game, but you pass protect better, the number of pass attempts increase, the number of rushes decrease, and yards per rush increase. That is basic factual math.

3. None of this offensive crap matters if 5 guys can't block 3. There is no offensive system known to man that works when you can't block people. Such a system doesn't exist. No offensive system can function without blocking, just as no defensive system works without tackling.

4. A defense can function under Leach. I still see people that say a defense won't work with the Air Raid because of time of possession by your offense. But the Air Raid is a passing offense. It is not necessarily an up-tempo offense. The offenses that kill your defense are the ones similar to what Freeze would run where your offense scores or punts very quickly, and your defense gets worn out. Leach throws it a ton, but doesn't necessarily run tempo and try to score on 6 plays in 53 seconds. He plays slower.

5. I fully expect the points per game to increase a good bit. But the key is blocking people and keeping Rogers healthy.

[Coach34]

Leach has been a good football coach and we all know this. It's well documented.

Older coaches fall into two groups once they hit about 60. Those that adjust a little to account for the times continue their success. Saban, Spurrier, Bowden are just a few examples.

Older coaches that get too stubborn end up phasing themselves out- like a Les Miles, Mark Richt started sliding as did Beamer...Jackie lost control in Starkville as he hit his 60's.

Leach will either tweak a little or he will get exposed in the SEC. 60 passes per Saturday is not going to work here. DL's are too good.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Leach has been a good football coach and we all know this. It's well documented.

Older coaches fall into two groups once they hit about 60. Those that adjust a little to account for the times continue their success. Saban, Spurrier, Bowden are just a few examples.

Older coaches that get too stubborn end up phasing themselves out- like a Les Miles, Mark Richt started sliding as did Beamer...Jackie lost control in Starkville as he hit his 60's.

Leach will either tweak a little or he will get exposed in the SEC. 60 passes per Saturday is not going to work here. DL's are too good.

He's installed run plays he's never ran in his life. Is it enough adaption? I don't know, but it's clear he is adapting somewhat

[Coach34]

He's installed run plays he's never ran in his life. Is it enough adaption? I don't know, but it's clear he is adapting somewhat

If he in fact does that? Then yes- he is tweaking and likely remains successful

[ShotgunDawg]

Leach has been a good football coach and we all know this. It's well documented.

Older coaches fall into two groups once they hit about 60. Those that adjust a little to account for the times continue their success. Saban, Spurrier, Bowden are just a few examples.

Older coaches that get too stubborn end up phasing themselves out- like a Les Miles, Mark Richt started sliding as did Beamer...Jackie lost control in Starkville as he hit his 60's.

Leach will either tweak a little or he will get exposed in the SEC. 60 passes per Saturday is not going to work here. DL's are too good.

Us running some QB option in training camp gives me hope.

I also think part of the reason we didn't run more last year was Will didn't recognize when to run & the OL sucked. I expect both to far better this year.

Agree with your point though

[Cowbell]

Us running some QB option in training camp gives me hope.

I also think part of the reason we didn't run more last year was Will didn't recognize when to run & the OL sucked. I expect both to far better this year.

Agree with your point though

We have the greatest running back room that leach has ever been a part of.

[Hot Rock]

I also just listened to Matt.

Experience on our OL is a bit scary.

The only OL we have that has ever started at the position that he will be playing is Charles Cross. They have a total number of 28 starts combined for the 5 of them. Even the two Seniors don't have a starts. The most experienced OL we have is RS FR Charles Cross who started all his games last year.

That is really low guys. I know this OL is talented with length and size but experience is not on the resume'.

[Leroy Jenkins]

I also just listened to Matt.

Experience on our OL is a bit scary.

The only OL we have that has ever started at the position that he will be playing is Charles Cross. They have a total number of 28 starts combined for the 5 of them. Even the two Seniors don't have a starts. The most experienced OL we have is RS FR Charles Cross who started all his games last year.

That is really low guys. I know this OL is talented with length and size but experience is not on the resume'.

They were not good in the positions they were in last year. I would be more concerned if the staff evaluated them for a full year and didn't shuffle them to their best positions.

[TrapGame]

I also just listened to Matt.

Experience on our OL is a bit scary.

The only OL we have that has ever started at the position that he will be playing is Charles Cross. They have a total number of 28 starts combined for the 5 of them. Even the two Seniors don't have a starts. The most experienced OL we have is RS FR Charles Cross who started all his games last year.

That is really low guys. I know this OL is talented with length and size but experience is not on the resume'.

We never had a true starting lineup for the OL. Due to COVID it was plug and play for 8 out of 11 games.

[Reason2succeed]

6. We were making a transition to a pass heavy scheme from being a run oriented team without a real spring camp and major disruptions in the fall. Our WR Corp was not suitable for the offense last year. The transfers have made it much better Notice that a freshman in Jaden Walley was more suited to play in the offense than seniors and juniors.

I?m going out on a limb and saying that this will be the most productive WR Corp we?ve ever seen at State.

[BrunswickDawg]

6. We were making a transition to a pass heavy scheme from being a run oriented team without a real spring camp and major disruptions in the fall. Our WR Corp was not suitable for the offense last year. The transfers have made it much better Notice that a freshman in Jaden Walley was more suited to play in the offense than seniors and juniors.

I?m going out on a limb and saying that this will be the most productive WR Corp we?ve ever seen at State.

I don't know that that is going out on much of a limb. 2015 was our most productive WR corps ever - Ross with 1007 yards, Bear with 905, and then 4 others over 200 yards - when we threw for our season record 4,113 yards. We were only 900 yards off that last year with 2 fewer games