So someone help me out here, I'm not a MLB follower so how in the world

[R2Dawg]

does EC get drafted as the 139 pick, just 21 picks after SEC POY and he can't even make our travel team or pitch in midweek?

Not trying to be sarcastic, I just don't get it.

[msstate7]

You draft on what could be in the future more than what is now

[MetEdDawg]

Because MLB drafts potential because they think they can harness tools that kids naturally have to help them out.

When you line up Cerantola against the rest of the pitchers in the draft and measure their best stuff, Cerantola is a Top 10 pitcher. Filthy CB, FB that can play down in the zone with speed.

But he could never channel that to consistent accuracy. He's got the right height and build to be a stud if he can put it together. And that's why he got drafted.

[R2Dawg]

Yeah I knew he had all the pitches, just seems crazy to think about where he ended up at MSU. We did have some outstanding college pitchers, no doubt. He could not have done what Harding and Johnson did in CWS.

[The Federalist Engineer]

You draft on what could be in the future more than what is now

I would add a few factors that are important to MLB data guys

- Age is huge for the draft, a player peaks out at 27, a rule of thumb, so a 23 year old might be in the minors or a rookie during his peak
- They also love pitchers with incredibly freaky and unnatural traits, worth a risk.
- MLB does not especially steward draft picks like the NFL. The NFL drafts individuals where MLB drafts "types" to fill a pipeline
- A fifth rounder has a 1/3 of making the Majors, at a low cost, so they just fill the pipeline and do not over think it.
- They definitely want to get 1st round picks correct, 30% of All Stars are domestic 1st Rounders, 27% of All Stars are International. The domestic 2nd round is only 7% of All Stars, downhill from there.
- They do not value mastering College Baseball as highly as we do, they would say, TA showed he was good as a Freshman and was ready for A ball, the next step
- They would have promoted Kumar from Rookie to A ball after he struck out 20 Duke players in 2019. He would be AAA or MLB today, as a 21 year old, "he wasted 3 years playing 'pretend' baseball."
- In a book by Nate Silver, the Election prognosticator, he was actually a baseball stat entrepreneur before all that. He wrote that he created and sold a product that actually modelled and created "upside" tranches for players as prospects / investments. That's how they draft.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/media/11194/mlb-draftees-who-reached-majors.jpg

Certantola never belonged in College Baseball is probably the real answer. He needed to be in a development camp for 3 years with constant coaching, no classes, and no big "weekend" starts. He was also drafted higher than all these kids that we would love to have:

(1) Wiklander of Arkansas
(2) Cole Quintania of Texas
(3) Mike Antico of Texas
(4) Evan Justice of NC State

[Coach34]

You have to win in college baseball- he can pitch the next 3 years in the minors and they dont care if the team wins. They want him to develop.

[Todd4State]

I think he was hurt some by missing a summer due to COVID. He's the kind of guy that I could see making a jump like Hudson or Stratton did their junior years after a good summer.

Most of his issues are in his head I'm pretty sure though so maybe he'll get over that at some point.

[parabrave]

Potential. Being high draft pick doesn't guarantee you that you will get to the Majors. It's what you do with your chance and he will have 5 years to develop in the minors. Plenty of former number ones who end up being Crash Davis.

[BiscuitEater]

He's 6-5, 222, 23 year old that can throw a baseball 94+ mph. Had an era of just over 3.0 in 2020 but had control issues this year. Those issues can be repaired with patients. CBB season doesn't tend to be! Every game counts.