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preachermatt83
06-02-2021, 03:37 PM
Rumor is, from people close to Bednar, that he is getting the nod for Friday night. Just passing along a rumor. Have no idea if it?s true or not.

HoopsDawg
06-02-2021, 03:40 PM
Rumor is, from people close to Bednar, that he is getting the nod for Friday night. Just passing along a rumor. Have no idea if it?s true or not.

That's overthinking it if true and not a good move.

confucius say
06-02-2021, 03:40 PM
Makes sense against a right handed heavy lineup of samford (I heard they were right handed heavy, haven't looked myself). I like it.

AlSwearengen
06-02-2021, 03:57 PM
I listened to Lemonis on head to head yesterday and when asked about a starting pitcher, he emphasized that they would be looking at matchups before deciding. I don’t think Bednar getting the start is anything other than a match up deal.

TNDawg35
06-02-2021, 04:06 PM
Honestly it shouldn’t matter who we pitch. If Mac and Bednar pitch the way we have seen, we will start 2-0. Then have Harding/Fristoe/Smith

With them being right handed heavy, I don’t blame him one bit for starting Bednar..

Choctaw Dawg
06-02-2021, 04:07 PM
Makes sense considering the amount of righties in the lineup, no matter who starts we need them to go deep and not put our bullpen behind the 8 ball early

Homedawg
06-02-2021, 04:10 PM
That's overthinking it if true and not a good move.

Agreed. Bednar sat. With that said, I do that before throwing anyone not named McLeod or bednar. But it also sets up the super regional rotation going forward should we advance.

Commercecomet24
06-02-2021, 04:12 PM
IMO Bednar should pitch Saturday. But my opinion don't count for much lol

WinningIsRelentless
06-02-2021, 04:19 PM
If it?s a righty heavy lineup you throw bednar. It?s not much if any difference between him and Mac right now.

MetEdDawg
06-02-2021, 04:40 PM
Samford against MacLeod would bat 9 RHs.

VCU against MacLeod would bat 3-4 lefties.

Given Lemonis and his propensity for statistical guidance over gut and what has been done before, this decision completely fits what him and staff look at to make decisions.

I trust him and see the logic of this decision. If you can't at least see the logic, then you don't understand baseball. There's a lot of folks that would do something different because they don't get paid a million dollars with their job riding on the line to make decisions like this one.

State82
06-02-2021, 04:42 PM
They are heavy RH. Possibly all of the lineup. I think Steve Robertson said 8 RH and a switch hitter.

Todd4State
06-02-2021, 04:44 PM
Bednar has been better than MacLeoud. This may lead to better match ups throughout the postseason. Plus Bednar get go deeper into games.

I'm OK with this rumor.

Rex54
06-02-2021, 04:53 PM
I still think Mac has to be the guy. If you start WB hopefully we can get up 10-0 early and pull him in case he's needed Monday.

Quaoarsking
06-02-2021, 05:06 PM
Honestly, is there really much of a difference in VCU, Campbell, or Samford? They are all mid-major conference champions with a decent RPI in the 31-54 range. Playing matchups seems fine since none of the 3 are clearly better or worse than the rest.

Coach34
06-02-2021, 05:08 PM
Throwing your Ace against a 4 seed would be in a word- stupid. Especially a team whose Ace has a 5.00 ERA

preachermatt83
06-02-2021, 05:09 PM
Bednar has been better than MacLeoud. This may lead to better match ups throughout the postseason. Plus Bednar get go deeper into games.

I'm OK with this rumor.

Yup. I like it. Mainly because if we can’t win the regional with either/or then I think we were toast anyway. And as stated, this sets us up for bednar to start game 1 of supers. Which is what I think we’d all want.

Rex54
06-02-2021, 05:10 PM
Yup. I like it. Mainly because if we can’t win the regional with either/or then I think we were toast anyway. And as stated, this sets us up for bednar to start game 1 of supers. Which is what I think we’d all want.

I'd save Bednar for game 2 of the regional

preachermatt83
06-02-2021, 05:12 PM
Honestly, is there really much of a difference in VCU, Campbell, or Samford? They are all mid-major conference champions with a decent RPI in the 31-54 range. Playing matchups seems fine since none of the 3 are clearly better or worse than the rest.

Facts!

Quaoarsking
06-02-2021, 05:12 PM
Throwing your Ace against a 4 seed would be in a word- stupid. Especially a team whose Ace has a 5.00 ERA

Usually, yes, but usually 4 seeds are significantly worse than the 2 and the 3. Ours isn't. We appear to have a very strong 4 and pretty weak 2 and 3.

Coach34
06-02-2021, 05:17 PM
Usually, yes, but usually 4 seeds are significantly worse than the 2 and the 3. Ours isn't. We appear to have a very strong 4 and pretty weak 2 and 3.

Disagree. VCU is very hot and playing well. Samford's pitching is the weakest of the 3. Not to mention VCU has some P5 wins- Samford does not. VCU hasnt lost since April 13th

MetEdDawg
06-02-2021, 05:20 PM
Usually, yes, but usually 4 seeds are significantly worse than the 2 and the 3. Ours isn't. We appear to have a very strong 4 and pretty weak 2 and 3.

If this were Southern we are having an entirely different conversation.

There are teams that received at large bids that have a higher RPI than Samford. They are no slouch. We got a strong 4 seed that has an RPI of 54.

Homedawg
06-02-2021, 05:21 PM
Honestly, is there really much of a difference in VCU, Campbell, or Samford? They are all mid-major conference champions with a decent RPI in the 31-54 range. Playing matchups seems fine since none of the 3 are clearly better or worse than the rest.

There is a difference. Now I'm not saying take Sanford lightly. But Bednar on sat is the best route. If Macleod didn't have a change up maybe so.

Commercecomet24
06-02-2021, 05:42 PM
Personally I would start bednar game 2. That being said this is where a coach knowing his players comes into play. As I've said before in a tournament format at some point you have to gamble with your pitching and have the balls to do it. Some gamble early on and some wait. It can work either way and a coach knowing his players and the matchups is crucial in the decision making. If it works we got our rotation set for supers.

basedog
06-02-2021, 05:55 PM
Personally I would start bednar game 2. That being said this is where a coach knowing his players comes into play. As I've said before in a tournament format at some point you have to gamble with your pitching and have the balls to do it. Some gamble early on and some wait. It can work either way and a coach knowing his players and the matchups is crucial in the decision making. If it works we got our rotation set for supers.

I understand the matchups and I see no problem with Lemonis and Foxhall decision. First off IF we don't hit better than what we did the last two games, it ain't gonna matter. Second of all, no way any of the three teams in our Regional are top Sec caliber teams. Now in saying this anything can happen if an opposing pitcher has his best day. It's pretty much a must to win the first game as well as the second I think. Actually I hope Bednar goes this distance, it really saves the pen then.

BeardoMSU
06-02-2021, 06:11 PM
First off IF we don't hit better than what we did the last two games, it ain't gonna matter.

You bring up the elephant in the room, IMO. Honestly, if our bats wake up, it won't really matter who we pitch...and that would certainly help with all of our stress levels, lol.

KOdawg1
06-02-2021, 06:22 PM
Samford 1-9 will be RH hitters if we throw MacLeod, so throwing a RHP would be smart.

However, Bednar does not need to be that RHP. If you're hell bent on throwing a righty, Brandon Smith, Cade Smith, or Stone Simmons would be better moves so you don't waste your best pitcher on the 4 seed.

MetEdDawg
06-02-2021, 07:02 PM
Samford 1-9 will be RH hitters if we throw MacLeod, so throwing a RHP would be smart.

However, Bednar does not need to be that RHP. If you're hell bent on throwing a righty, Brandon Smith, Cade Smith, or Stone Simmons would be better moves so you don't waste your best pitcher on the 4 seed.

If Samford were the type of 4 seed that many of them are, I would agree. Samford has an RPI in the 50s. So if you need to win one game against a team like that, you look at teams like Pitt, Maryland, UC Santa Barbara as comparables. You throwing Cade Smith against that?

The answer is hell no. Bednar is the right choice because of matchup. If you screw up and lose, that means it's possible Bednar or MacLeod don't pitch a game. That can't happen.

Samford had an RPI of 43 when they beat us in Tallahassee. So only 11 spots higher than now. Can't play around with them because if we lose this game, we have to win 4 more to get out of our regional. Do you feel comfortable with this team having to win 4 in a row to make it out of our regional? I don't.

The smart play is Bednar, MacLeod, Fristoe/Harding, Fristoe/Harding. Brandon Smith goes if there's a game 5.

KOdawg1
06-02-2021, 07:13 PM
If Samford were the type of 4 seed that many of them are, I would agree. Samford has an RPI in the 50s. So if you need to win one game against a team like that, you look at teams like Pitt, Maryland, UC Santa Barbara as comparables. You throwing Cade Smith against that?

The answer is hell no. Bednar is the right choice because of matchup. If you screw up and lose, that means it's possible Bednar or MacLeod don't pitch a game. That can't happen.

Samford had an RPI of 43 when they beat us in Tallahassee. So only 11 spots higher than now. Can't play around with them because if we lose this game, we have to win 4 more to get out of our regional. Do you feel comfortable with this team having to win 4 in a row to make it out of our regional? I don't.

The smart play is Bednar, MacLeod, Fristoe/Harding, Fristoe/Harding. Brandon Smith goes if there's a game 5.

It's a gamble either way; I honestly see both sides.

But with as unpredictable as Mac can be (especially at home in a pressure situation) I'd like Bednar to go game 2. But like what's already been stated, it won't matter if we can't hit.

Homedawg
06-02-2021, 07:16 PM
You bring up the elephant in the room, IMO. Honestly, if our bats wake up, it won't really matter who we pitch...and that would certainly help with all of our stress levels, lol.

We hit way better in the tourney than we pitched. That's saying a lot. But hammer at least had some hard outs. Our pitchers got shelled for the most part. But make no mistake I have faith that our pitchers will rebound

basedog
06-02-2021, 07:37 PM
We hit way better in the tourney than we pitched. That's saying a lot. But hammer at least had some hard outs. Our pitchers got shelled for the most part. But make no mistake I have faith that our pitchers will rebound

Hmmm, yes pitching was bad but scoring only 3 runs in less than 18 innings is just as bad. We need to hit and score early to gain confidence. Also Samford didn’t see Bednar which I think is good for us. If the bottom of of our order doesn’t produce some it could be a bad weekend. Just my take. Too much talk about how easy our region draw is, heck we can’t or shouldn’t over look any team from now till the end

Homedawg
06-02-2021, 07:46 PM
Hmmm, yes pitching was bad but scoring only 3 runs in less than 18 innings is just as bad. We need to hit and score early to gain confidence. Also Samford didn’t see Bednar which I think is good for us. If the bottom of of our order doesn’t produce some it could be a bad weekend. Just my take. Too much talk about how easy our region draw is, heck we can’t or shouldn’t over look any team from now till the end

Won't argue we need to score more than 3 runs. Agree. But we did hit 5 hard hit balls in our first 6 abs against fla. won't go any further. Our pitching - again- for the Most part, was beyond awful. And the rest of the post I agree with! Same page

Captain Falcon
06-02-2021, 08:04 PM
Disagree. VCU is very hot and playing well. Samford's pitching is the weakest of the 3. Not to mention VCU has some P5 wins- Samford does not. VCU hasnt lost since April 13th

The winning streak thing is overblown to me. A comparable Central Michigan team came here on a long winning streak two years ago and went 1-2 with two blowout losses.

Samford plays in the 9th ranked RPI conference, Campbell's conference is 20th and VCU's is 21st. And Samford did go 20-10 in their league. I realize they've struggled against the SEC this year, I still don't think they are drastically different in quality from VCU and Campbell. Will not be shocked at all if Sunday night we are looking at a MSU/Samford Regional championship.

State82
06-02-2021, 08:08 PM
Some of you geniuses have short term memory loss. The last few weeks this team has been a complete Charlie Foxtrot. MetEdDawg said it best. No way this team is capable of winning 4 in a row. So you play the matchup game in a manner that gives you the best advantage in this first game. Then you continue in that same MO until you advance. Only way to approach it with this team, which is VERY limited. I have some sobering news for some of you and your delusional ideas. We are not that great. So it is going to take some real study to put us in an advantage in this tournament. That is what Lemonis is paid for.

Cooterpoot
06-02-2021, 08:13 PM
Bednar game one would be as stupid a move as we could make. But that's what the analytics say because of the right handlers. Nevermind those guys couldn't hit Harding. It would be foolish unless you severely limit pitches and use him twice, which isn't happening.

basedog
06-02-2021, 08:13 PM
Some of you geniuses have short term memory loss. The last few weeks this team has been a complete Charlie Foxtrot. MetEdDawg said it best. No way this team is capable of winning 4 in a row. So you play the matchup game in a manner that gives you the best advantage in this first game. Then you continue in that same MO until you advance. Only way to approach it with this team, which is VERY limited. I have some sobering news for some of you and your delusional ideas. We are not that great. So it is going to take some real study to put us in an advantage in this tournament. That is what Lemonis is paid for.

I can’t imagine if we lost the first game what the meltdown would be for players, coaches and fans! First game is always a must win. And yes we aren’t built for the long haul in regional play.

Coach34
06-02-2021, 08:15 PM
Samford- SP's ERA is 5+ in weaker leagues. Been completely exposed vs P5 opponents

VCU- hasnt lost in 9 weeks. Has multiple wins vs 'P5 teams. Including Virginia who is not bad.

One of these is not like the other.

Lemon loves the analytics and I get that. They are important in baseball. But gut and knowing your team is important also. Curious to see what happens this weekend

Coach34
06-02-2021, 08:16 PM
I can’t imagine if we lost the first game what the meltdown would be for players, coaches and fans! First game is always a must win. And yes we aren’t built for the long haul in regional play.

If you pitched Mac and lost Game 1 would their be a meltdown about the decision Lemon made? I dont see anybody being mad at Lemon over that. Would be much more on the players than Lemon

Saltydog
06-02-2021, 08:21 PM
They've both been very inconsistent all year, especially Macleod.....

State82
06-02-2021, 08:26 PM
They've both been very inconsistent all year, especially Macleod.....

Yes, they have. So there really is no difference in the big picture.

basedog
06-02-2021, 09:01 PM
If you pitched Mac and lost Game 1 would their be a meltdown about the decision Lemon made? I dont see anybody being mad at Lemon over that. Would be much more on the players than Lemon

Yes to losing game one regardless who pitches. Actually I don’t care who starts first game, but it’s a must win IMO.

Homedawg
06-02-2021, 09:02 PM
This team lost to Missouri twice. Anything is possible. Anything

Homedawg
06-02-2021, 09:04 PM
If you pitched Mac and lost Game 1 would their be a meltdown about the decision Lemon made? I dont see anybody being mad at Lemon over that. Would be much more on the players than Lemon

This. Agree totally. Now if we start a Fristoe or someone else and lost yes. Which at this point I recognize he's not an option. But yet some here claim he is. Smdh

Homedawg
06-02-2021, 09:06 PM
Bednar game one would be as stupid a move as we could make. But that's what the analytics say because of the right handlers. Nevermind those guys couldn't hit Harding. It would be foolish unless you severely limit pitches and use him twice, which isn't happening.

Starting Harding after they have seen him wouldn't be a swell idea either. But I'm not a fan of the Bednar move. More likely you save your pen Friday and use it sat and put us in a short pen for Sunday.

Commercecomet24
06-02-2021, 09:07 PM
This team lost to Missouri twice. Anything is possible. Anything

So much truth. This team is capable of winning it all or going out in 2 games and looking ugly doing it.

Homedawg
06-02-2021, 09:08 PM
Yes to losing game one regardless who pitches. Actually I don’t care who starts first game, but it’s a must win IMO.
Winning the first and losing the second is the same as losing the first and winning the second. No difference. Have to win first two. Period.

Commercecomet24
06-02-2021, 09:10 PM
I think one things for sure if we're going to omaha we have to take the training wheels off sims for the next 2 weeks.

MetEdDawg
06-02-2021, 09:16 PM
Winning the first and losing the second is the same as losing the first and winning the second. No difference. Have to win first two. Period.

Which is why Bednar against a lineup where everyone hits RH and MacLeod for Game 2 potentially against a VCU team that has 3-4 lefties that will bat makes a lot of sense.

If Game 1 and 2 are the same and you feel roughly equally confident in MacLeod and Bednar, then you play matchups to give your pitcher the best chance to be successful. Which is why Bednar makes sense here.

And for those that think Bednar is appreciably better, he has a 3.23 ERA to MacLeod's 3.6. Bednar's WHIP is 1.11 while MacLeod's is 1.23.

Give your two best pitchers the best chance to win by making the matchups work in their favor.

basedog
06-02-2021, 09:55 PM
Winning the first and losing the second is the same as losing the first and winning the second. No difference. Have to win first two. Period.

My point is losing first game would be a huge letdown. But yes if we lose the second as u stated.

Cooterpoot
06-02-2021, 09:56 PM
Samford is the worst team we'll see in the post season. If we can't beat them without our ace on the mound, we ain't winning shit!
We've thrown Mac on Fridays all season but all of a sudden matchups matter vs damn Samford? Give me a break. That's classic overthinking and over analyzing. Is Lemonis a statistician or a coach?
Or...we're setting up our pitching for a super with our best pitcher throwing game one.

msstate7
06-02-2021, 10:36 PM
Too lazy to look... are vcu and Campbell lh heavy?

Cowbell
06-02-2021, 10:49 PM
Too lazy to look... are vcu and Campbell lh heavy?

VCU would bat 4-5 lefties. Honestly I good move if this is the case.

CadaverDawg
06-02-2021, 11:04 PM
I feel like it's silly if for matchups alone. If he's saying "matchups" to keep from having to say "I'm super confident we're about to smoke these scrubs and will be playing next week in a Super, so I'm setting my pitching up"....

https://media3.giphy.com/media/VDAv7MlmrVc31Y2Net/200.gif

HoopsDawg
06-02-2021, 11:21 PM
Can Macleod beat Samford? If the answer is yes, then you pitch him first and Bednar 2nd. Anything else is overthinking.

BeardoMSU
06-02-2021, 11:26 PM
I feel like it's silly if for matchups alone. If he's saying "matchups" to keep from having to say "I'm super confident we're about to smoke these scrubs and will be playing next week in a Super, so I'm setting my pitching up"....

https://media3.giphy.com/media/VDAv7MlmrVc31Y2Net/200.gif

https://media2.giphy.com/media/5Q9xC9cZdFiOQ/giphy.gif

Captain Falcon
06-02-2021, 11:27 PM
This is where our inability to find a trustworthy #3 starter is hurting us. Had Brandon Smith pitched well in Hoover I think he gets the start on Friday. But because he got hit like BP, we are probably throwing Bednar since he is our only trustworthy right handed starter at the moment.

Everyone wants to point to the Maholm fiasco in 2003 but is quick to ignore that we did something similar in 2013 and 2016 and it worked out. I think our coaches view MacLeod and Bednar as pitchers of equal caliber (statistically they are very similar), so I don?t know that I mind them just playing the matchup game here. The goal is to win the first two games and then trust that you are fresher and more talented once you get to the end of the Regional. Assuming we are using MacLeod and Bednar the first two games, the order you pitch them in doesn?t really matter as long as you make sure you win both games.

SilentSteel16
06-03-2021, 12:46 AM
I don?t think it matters that their ace has a 5 plus ERA. Didn?t Mizzou pitch it?s batting practice guy against us? If you screw around and lose game 1 the odds are not in your favor. In tournament ball with our current lineup you play to win from day one.

In a perfect world you would throw your mid week guy in game 1 but our offense has been run by Moorhead lately and not Leach.

Todd4State
06-03-2021, 12:56 AM
This is where our inability to find a trustworthy #3 starter is hurting us. Had Brandon Smith pitched well in Hoover I think he gets the start on Friday. But because he got hit like BP, we are probably throwing Bednar since he is our only trustworthy right handed starter at the moment.

Everyone wants to point to the Maholm fiasco in 2003 but is quick to ignore that we did something similar in 2013 and 2016 and it worked out. I think our coaches view MacLeod and Bednar as pitchers of equal caliber (statistically they are very similar), so I don?t know that I mind them just playing the matchup game here. The goal is to win the first two games and then trust that you are fresher and more talented once you get to the end of the Regional. Assuming we are using MacLeod and Bednar the first two games, the order you pitch them in doesn?t really matter as long as you make sure you win both games.

Smith's biggest problem is he is a ground ball pitcher and he has our infield behind him.

And I agree. The problem is we don't have a reliable third pitcher. Although at this point it should be Harding. I think Fristoe and Smith and etc. are good enough to beat anyone in our regional but they also could implode as well.

Todd4State
06-03-2021, 01:02 AM
Which is why Bednar against a lineup where everyone hits RH and MacLeod for Game 2 potentially against a VCU team that has 3-4 lefties that will bat makes a lot of sense.

If Game 1 and 2 are the same and you feel roughly equally confident in MacLeod and Bednar, then you play matchups to give your pitcher the best chance to be successful. Which is why Bednar makes sense here.

And for those that think Bednar is appreciably better, he has a 3.23 ERA to MacLeod's 3.6. Bednar's WHIP is 1.11 while MacLeod's is 1.23.

Give your two best pitchers the best chance to win by making the matchups work in their favor.

The biggest difference is Bednar is more likely to get deep into a game than MacLeoud. Sims is a huge x-factor for us though. Assuming we use him more than once this regional.

Todd4State
06-03-2021, 01:21 AM
One thing no one is talking about is even if we lose one of the first two games odds are whoever we throw as a third starter is probably better than the other teams third starters. Honestly, with this draw we should have an advantage no matter who we throw and when we throw them. And yes, I know we could look like trash and lose two games but as far as strictly playing the odds it probably is more beneficial with this draw if we throw MacLeoud and Bednar first in whatever order. And if he's throwing Bednar because Samford has a ton of RH hitters- I'm fine with that reasoning. And yeah- MacLeoud probably could beat them but with the peripheral stats showing that Bednar has more of an advantage and maybe MacLeoud has an advantage over the other two- why wouldn't we throw Bednar?

You have to take into account our team too. We don't have Ethan Small, Dakota Hudson, Chris Stratton, etc. Basically Bednar and MacLeoud are like Small and Konnor Pilkington in 2018. Pretty good but not dominant guys that are going to give us 7-9 and K 10+ guys in a game.

I'm just going to trust Lemonis on this whatever he does because I'm pretty sure he has a logical reason for whatever he does that he can back up if it backfires. Which if it does backfire it's probably going to be because we made a ton of errors and not the pitchers which is how we seem to typically lose our games.

Dawg-gone-dawgs
06-03-2021, 07:55 AM
Throwing your Ace against a 4 seed would be in a word- stupid. Especially a team whose Ace has a 5.00 ERA

we have an ace?

Cooterpoot
06-03-2021, 07:58 AM
I don?t think it matters that their ace has a 5 plus ERA. Didn?t Mizzou pitch it?s batting practice guy against us? If you screw around and lose game 1 the odds are not in your favor. In tournament ball with our current lineup you play to win from day one.

In a perfect world you would throw your mid week guy in game 1 but our offense has been run by Moorhead lately and not Leach.

If the logic used is "we lost to MO so we might lose to Samford", then we've got the biggest ***** of a coach ever. That's not even a consideration. You go with your guys now. Either we'll win or we won't. But it's got nothing to do with losing to MO.

State82
06-03-2021, 08:09 AM
we have an ace?
Nope

Cooterpoot
06-03-2021, 08:29 AM
Nope

Bednar has been solid. He's definitely the ace.

DownwardDawg
06-03-2021, 08:41 AM
I feel like it's silly if for matchups alone. If he's saying "matchups" to keep from having to say "I'm super confident we're about to smoke these scrubs and will be playing next week in a Super, so I'm setting my pitching up"....

https://media3.giphy.com/media/VDAv7MlmrVc31Y2Net/200.gif

It?s early so my brain is struggling. Are you saying we are changing our rotation for the Super? If so, why? Just trying to understand.

Captain Falcon
06-03-2021, 09:40 AM
Bednar has been solid. He's definitely the ace.

Maybe he?s slightly better than MacLeod but the gap is not large by any means.

MedDawg
06-03-2021, 09:42 AM
Rumor is, from people close to Bednar, that he is getting the nod for Friday night. Just passing along a rumor. Have no idea if it?s true or not.

If State gets an early lead, Lemonis will pull Bednar after 3 or 4 innings regardless of how he is pitching, then pitch relievers for 1 inning each.

Johnson85
06-03-2021, 09:54 AM
If State gets an early lead, Lemonis will pull Bednar after 3 or 4 innings regardless of how he is pitching, then pitch relievers for 1 inning each.

That does not seem likely to me based on how he handled SEC games. Granted it's a lot different pitching in a double elimination regional versus competing for a national seed, but the only reason to do that is to try to pitch Bednar twice in a regional, and I'm not sure he'll do that.

PMDawg
06-03-2021, 09:56 AM
One thing no one is talking about is even if we lose one of the first two games odds are whoever we throw as a third starter is probably better than the other teams third starters. Honestly, with this draw we should have an advantage no matter who we throw and when we throw them. And yes, I know we could look like trash and lose two games but as far as strictly playing the odds it probably is more beneficial with this draw if we throw MacLeoud and Bednar first in whatever order. And if he's throwing Bednar because Samford has a ton of RH hitters- I'm fine with that reasoning. And yeah- MacLeoud probably could beat them but with the peripheral stats showing that Bednar has more of an advantage and maybe MacLeoud has an advantage over the other two- why wouldn't we throw Bednar?

You have to take into account our team too. We don't have Ethan Small, Dakota Hudson, Chris Stratton, etc. Basically Bednar and MacLeoud are like Small and Konnor Pilkington in 2018. Pretty good but not dominant guys that are going to give us 7-9 and K 10+ guys in a game.

I'm just going to trust Lemonis on this whatever he does because I'm pretty sure he has a logical reason for whatever he does that he can back up if it backfires. Which if it does backfire it's probably going to be because we made a ton of errors and not the pitchers which is how we seem to typically lose our games.

The problem here is VCU and Campbell mash the ball. Even if our #s 3 and 4 are better than their 3 and 4, their hitting gives them the advantage. We don't even hit trash pitching well at times (see Mizzou). Sunday and, heaven forbid, Monday, we aren't winning by scoring 3 or 4 runs and pitching well. We're going to have to pitch well AND score a bunch of runs. Which, you're right, we SHOULD be able to do against VCU or Campbell's Sunday/Monday pitching...but the last few weeks are reason for concern in that arena.

If we actually show up this weekend, we probably go 3-0. But we've been so hit or miss lately, it's concerning.

Captain Falcon
06-03-2021, 10:24 AM
The problem here is VCU and Campbell mash the ball. Even if our #s 3 and 4 are better than their 3 and 4, their hitting gives them the advantage. We don't even hit trash pitching well at times (see Mizzou). Sunday and, heaven forbid, Monday, we aren't winning by scoring 3 or 4 runs and pitching well. We're going to have to pitch well AND score a bunch of runs. Which, you're right, we SHOULD be able to do against VCU or Campbell's Sunday/Monday pitching...but the last few weeks are reason for concern in that arena.

If we actually show up this weekend, we probably go 3-0. But we've been so hit or miss lately, it's concerning.

I really have no idea what to make of their hitting. They do have some good numbers but they both played in awful leagues.

PMDawg
06-03-2021, 11:02 AM
I really have no idea what to make of their hitting. They do have some good numbers but they both played in awful leagues.

Yes, but if you look across all of our games vs. bad competition, we didn't exactly light it up the majority of the time. Yes, we had some high output games, but we also scored 5 runs or less a lot too.

MaroonFlounder
06-03-2021, 11:33 AM
I listened to Lemonis on head to head yesterday and when asked about a starting pitcher, he emphasized that they would be looking at matchups before deciding. I don?t think Bednar getting the start is anything other than a match up deal.

^^^This. Samford has almost all RH batters. Maybe 1 switch-hitter.

CadaverDawg
06-03-2021, 11:46 AM
It?s early so my brain is struggling. Are you saying we are changing our rotation for the Super? If so, why? Just trying to understand.

Yes, bc if we feel Bednar is our Ace, we will likely want him matching up with our opponent's Ace down the stretch in Supers and Omaha if we make it

DownwardDawg
06-03-2021, 01:04 PM
Yes, bc if we feel Bednar is our Ace, we will likely want him matching up with our opponent's Ace down the stretch in Supers and Omaha if we make it

Gotcha. Thanks. Interesting though, I’ve felt Bednar was our “ace” most of the season. I just figured Lemonis wanted to keep the rotation due to us being pretty dang successful.