Preseason polls

[preachermatt83]

What is it about this State football team that is drawing some buzz from preseason pollsters? Don?t get me wrong, I?m a HUGE Leach guy, but I just do t see any way fro us to win more than 7 games this season. I think we are setting Leach up for failure with unrealistic expectations. Next year and then the next are the two I think we can make some noise.

[BrunswickDawg]

What is it about this State football team that is drawing some buzz from preseason pollsters? Don?t get me wrong, I?m a HUGE Leach guy, but I just do t see any way fro us to win more than 7 games this season. I think we are setting Leach up for failure with unrealistic expectations. Next year and then the next are the two I think we can make some noise.

Why not? Four winnable OOC games. LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, UK, Vandy and Ole miss are all winnable. A&M and Alabama are the only two teams on the schedule that really stand out as being above average.
We bring back almost all of our offensive production and a young defense that got better as the year progressed. Leach also got us help in the portal.

That being said - I think you could pick us to be anywhere from 3-9 to 8-4 and be able to defend it on paper and not be considered crazy.

[Hambone]

I think the year 2 improvement Leach has seen at his previous two stops play a big part into these preseason rankings.

[Dogbone]

Everything comes down to the starting quarterback. Until we know who it is we're just guessing.

[preachermatt83]

I think the year 2 improvement Leach has seen at his previous two stops play a big part into these preseason rankings.

Year 2 was no better in Pullman than year 1

[confucius say]

Year 2 was no better in Pullman than year 1

I think it was worse. Year 3 started to get it going

[StarkVegasSteve]

It's the ESPN FPI metric that's driving all of it. It basically measures returning production and since we had a bunch of freshman and sophomores playing last year then our returning production is very high.

[calidawg]

Early vegas odds makers have our o/u season win total @ 5.5. Tied for arky for last in sec west.

[Dawgology]

Why not? Four winnable OOC games. LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, UK, Vandy and Ole miss are all winnable. A&M and Alabama are the only two teams on the schedule that really stand out as being above average.
We bring back almost all of our offensive production and a young defense that got better as the year progressed. Leach also got us help in the portal.

That being said - I think you could pick us to be anywhere from 3-9 to 8-4 and be able to defend it on paper and not be considered crazy.

We went 3-7 last year and only played conference games. I think our defense will be stronger next year and our offense should be improved plus we have 4 OOC games. I think 6 wins is our floor next season.

[preachermatt83]

We went 3-7 last year and only played conference games. I think our defense will be stronger next year and our offense should be improved plus we have 4 OOC games. I think 6 wins is our floor next season.

To me it’s a high floor but it’s a low ceiling. Not a top 25 team. 6-6 or 7-5

[Hambone]

Year 2 was no better in Pullman than year 1

Year 1 3-9
Year 2 6-7

You’re right, not much improvement…..

[Hambone]

I think it was worse. Year 3 started to get it going

Year 3 they went back to 3-9

[Lord McBuckethead]

I think it was worse. Year 3 started to get it going

It doesn't matter to me, I have faith he will get it figured out and take us somewhere where we have never been. It just takes a few core special players to get us there with competent pieces around them. Lets get there. Let's give Leach time.

[Dawgology]

To me it’s a high floor but it’s a low ceiling. Not a top 25 team. 6-6 or 7-5

Exactly what I?m thinking. 6-6 floor 7-5 ceiling. 8-4 would be sec coach if the year performance

[Dawgology]

Year 3 they went back to 3-9

The biggest bit of recruiting we need to be doing after this season is Zach Arnett. What he did with our defense last season is exceptional. I think he will eventually be a hell of a head football coach. Keeping Arnett will improve our record this season and next season as well.

[preachermatt83]

Year 1 3-9
Year 2 6-7

You’re right, not much improvement…..

Oh ok. My bad.

[preachermatt83]

Exactly what I?m thinking. 6-6 floor 7-5 ceiling. 8-4 would be sec coach if the year performance

Agreed.

[preachermatt83]

The biggest bit of recruiting we need to be doing after this season is Zach Arnett. What he did with our defense last season is exceptional. I think he will eventually be a hell of a head football coach. Keeping Arnett will improve our record this season and next season as well.

Outstanding point

[CaptainObvious]

8-4 this season would be Top 25, maybe Top 20. There will be unbelievable balance this year.

[Jack Lambert]

I just think you are a typical state fan who thinks the worse. Schedule lines up pretty good. Defense is going to be solid and the offense is going to be improved.

[BrunswickDawg]

I just think you are a typical state fan who thinks the worse. Schedule lines up pretty good. Defense is going to be solid and the offense is going to be improved.

Offense will come down to one key thing - turnovers. We had 19 TO's in the first 5 games, and it was a huge contributing factor in how bad our offense was and us being 1-4.
We cut that to 7 the final 6 games - and went 3-3 and were damn close to winning at UGA and OM. If we can be as secure with the ball as we were in our last 6 games then UPig, UK, OM, and possibly LSU & Auburn, can all be in play.

[Todd4State]

Offense will come down to one key thing - turnovers. We had 19 TO's in the first 5 games, and it was a huge contributing factor in how bad our offense was and us being 1-4.
We cut that to 7 the final 6 games - and went 3-3 and were damn close to winning at UGA and OM. If we can be as secure with the ball as we were in our last 6 games then UPig, UK, OM, and possibly LSU & Auburn, can all be in play.

And that's one thing Will does pretty well. Take care of the football.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Offense will come down to one key thing - turnovers. We had 19 TO's in the first 5 games, and it was a huge contributing factor in how bad our offense was and us being 1-4.
We cut that to 7 the final 6 games - and went 3-3 and were damn close to winning at UGA and OM. If we can be as secure with the ball as we were in our last 6 games then UPig, UK, OM, and possibly LSU & Auburn, can all be in play.

Dude, 19 in the first five games is unreal. Got me interested in how bad that was in context. The FEI system has a metric that keeps track of the percentage of offensive drives that end in a fumble or interception. ("Offensive Turnover rate" or "OTO" for short.) Last year, we were 104th in the country in OTO.

That got me curious about how Leach's WSU teams were in that category. Well, turns out that they turned the ball over a ton, too, even when they were good.

WSU's national OTO rank

2012 - 116th
2013 - 121st
2014 - 104th
2015 - 99th
2016 - 26th
2017 - 123rd
2018 - 42nd
2019 - 127th

So yeah, based on that, there may be a good chance that we struggle with turnovers again next year. Low turnovers were the exception, not the norm.

Now, the thing is that WSU's offense rocked out despite the TO problems. In those same years, WSU's TD rate (% of offensive drives that resulted in touchdowns) climbed a ton.

WSU's TD rate

2012 - 107th
2013 - 80th
2014 - 63rd
2015 - 29th
2016 - 13th
2017 - 73rd
2018 - 9th
2019 - 11th

Top 30 nationally in four of his last five years is pretty stout. (And of course scoring and total offensive numbers were really high after year 2 as well.)

So they turned it over a bunch most years but also scored TDs pretty efficiently, too. Weird, but maybe that's the nature of Leach's Air Raid beast.

For a point of comparison on turnovers, by the way, here are State's OTO ranks from 2010 to 2019:

2010 - 63rd
2011 - 43rd
2012 - 45th
2013 - 30th
2014 - 76th
2015 - 38th
2016 - 23rd
2017 - 108th
2018 - 19th
2019 - 115th

Interesting that Mullen's most turnover-prone teams (2010, 2014, 2017) were some of his best. (And 2017 seems really weird given how run-heavy we were.) And, man, look at the schizophrenic Moorhead years. Most and least ball-secure teams of the decade in consecutive seasons. Moxie!

(ETA: Mullen and Moorhead's teams were pretty consistent on TD rates. Outside of Mullen's low-water mark for offense in 2011 when we were 95th nationally in TD rate and our high of 25th in 2014, we were basically between mid-50s and low 40s every year from 2010 - 2019.)

[preachermatt83]

I just think you are a typical state fan who thinks the worse. Schedule lines up pretty good. Defense is going to be solid and the offense is going to be improved.

No, I just think we are setting Coach Leach up for failure by having too high of expectations. Let?s remember, this is really on his first full year. He didn?t even have a spring last year. I think we will be better, yes, but I just don?t think we are a top 25 team. I hope I?m wrong. I trust leach and hope he?s our coach for 10 years or more. I just don?t want us to expect too much too soon.

[preachermatt83]

Dude, 19 in the first five games is unreal. Got me interested in how bad that was in context. The FEI system has a metric that keeps track of the percentage of offensive drives that end in a fumble or interception. ("Offensive Turnover rate" or "OTO" for short.) Last year, we were 104th in the country in OTO.

That got me curious about how Leach's WSU teams were in that category. Well, turns out that they turned the ball over a ton, too, even when they were good.

WSU's national OTO rank

2012 - 116th
2013 - 121st
2014 - 104th
2015 - 99th
2016 - 26th
2017 - 123rd
2018 - 42nd
2019 - 127th

So yeah, based on that, there may be a good chance that we struggle with turnovers again next year. Low turnovers were the exception, not the norm.

Now, the thing is that WSU's offense rocked out despite the TO problems. In those same years, WSU's TD rate (% of offensive drives that resulted in touchdowns) climbed a ton.

WSU's TD rate

2012 - 107th
2013 - 80th
2014 - 63rd
2015 - 29th
2016 - 13th
2017 - 73rd
2018 - 9th
2019 - 11th

Top 30 nationally in four of his last five years is pretty stout. (And of course scoring and total offensive numbers were really high after year 2 as well.)

So they turned it over a bunch most years but also scored TDs pretty efficiently, too. Weird, but maybe that's the nature of Leach's Air Raid beast.

For a point of comparison on turnovers, by the way, here are State's OTO ranks from 2010 to 2019:

2010 - 63rd
2011 - 43rd
2012 - 45th
2013 - 30th
2014 - 76th
2015 - 38th
2016 - 23rd
2017 - 108th
2018 - 19th
2019 - 115th

Interesting that Mullen's most turnover-prone teams (2010, 2014, 2017) were some of his best. (And 2017 seems really weird given how run-heavy we were.) And, man, look at the schizophrenic Moorhead years. Most and least ball-secure teams of the decade in consecutive seasons. Moxie!

(ETA: Mullen and Moorhead's teams were pretty consistent on TD rates. Outside of Mullen's low-water mark for offense in 2011 when we were 95th nationally in TD rate and our high of 25th in 2014, we were basically between mid-50s and low 40s every year from 2010 - 2019.)

Very informative.

[MedDawg]

Everything comes down to the starting quarterback. Until we know who it is we're just guessing.

We're still guessing even after we name our starting QB. Maybe guessing even more than now.

What if Leach names Abraham or Sawyer Robinson as starting QB? Is that better...or worse? I might feel better if Sawyer is named, just because that would mean he's practicing crazy well, but there would more guessing than now.

[Dawgology]

I just think you are a typical state fan who thinks the worse. Schedule lines up pretty good. Defense is going to be solid and the offense is going to be improved.

How is a 3 or 4 game win increase in a 12 game schedule thinking the worse?!?!?! Lmao!!!

[BuckyIsAB****]

Everything comes down to the starting quarterback. Until we know who it is we're just guessing.

We know who it is. Have known since the Alabama game

[BuckyIsAB****]

Offense will come down to one key thing - turnovers. We had 19 TO's in the first 5 games, and it was a huge contributing factor in how bad our offense was and us being 1-4.
We cut that to 7 the final 6 games - and went 3-3 and were damn close to winning at UGA and OM. If we can be as secure with the ball as we were in our last 6 games then UPig, UK, OM, and possibly LSU & Auburn, can all be in play.

Costello

[BuckyIsAB****]

Robertson threw with the team yesterday, day 1 but it is not close right now. Rogers Abraham Greek are the QBs unless an injury comes up

[R2Dawg]

Offense will come down to one key thing - turnovers. We had 19 TO's in the first 5 games, and it was a huge contributing factor in how bad our offense was and us being 1-4.
We cut that to 7 the final 6 games - and went 3-3 and were damn close to winning at UGA and OM. If we can be as secure with the ball as we were in our last 6 games then UPig, UK, OM, and possibly LSU & Auburn, can all be in play.

Yeah I think the way we finished vs how we started (take away LSU) is why people are high on us. Arnett and our D was better than anyone thought. Add the CML year 2 jump and I guess you get that. I'm still holding judgment. We still looked real bad in a scrimmage.

[BrunswickDawg]

Dude, 19 in the first five games is unreal. Got me interested in how bad that was in context. The FEI system has a metric that keeps track of the percentage of offensive drives that end in a fumble or interception. ("Offensive Turnover rate" or "OTO" for short.) Last year, we were 104th in the country in OTO.

That got me curious about how Leach's WSU teams were in that category. Well, turns out that they turned the ball over a ton, too, even when they were good.

WSU's national OTO rank

2012 - 116th
2013 - 121st
2014 - 104th
2015 - 99th
2016 - 26th
2017 - 123rd
2018 - 42nd
2019 - 127th

So yeah, based on that, there may be a good chance that we struggle with turnovers again next year. Low turnovers were the exception, not the norm.

Now, the thing is that WSU's offense rocked out despite the TO problems. In those same years, WSU's TD rate (% of offensive drives that resulted in touchdowns) climbed a ton.

WSU's TD rate

2012 - 107th
2013 - 80th
2014 - 63rd
2015 - 29th
2016 - 13th
2017 - 73rd
2018 - 9th
2019 - 11th

Top 30 nationally in four of his last five years is pretty stout. (And of course scoring and total offensive numbers were really high after year 2 as well.)

So they turned it over a bunch most years but also scored TDs pretty efficiently, too. Weird, but maybe that's the nature of Leach's Air Raid beast.

For a point of comparison on turnovers, by the way, here are State's OTO ranks from 2010 to 2019:

2010 - 63rd
2011 - 43rd
2012 - 45th
2013 - 30th
2014 - 76th
2015 - 38th
2016 - 23rd
2017 - 108th
2018 - 19th
2019 - 115th

Interesting that Mullen's most turnover-prone teams (2010, 2014, 2017) were some of his best. (And 2017 seems really weird given how run-heavy we were.) And, man, look at the schizophrenic Moorhead years. Most and least ball-secure teams of the decade in consecutive seasons. Moxie!

(ETA: Mullen and Moorhead's teams were pretty consistent on TD rates. Outside of Mullen's low-water mark for offense in 2011 when we were 95th nationally in TD rate and our high of 25th in 2014, we were basically between mid-50s and low 40s every year from 2010 - 2019.)

And look at Leach's best years - he had Luke Falk ('15 &'16) and Minshew ('18). If we can get a trained up QB in the system, it will produce results. Will it get us to 10 wins or more? Who knows.