Regular Season Almost Wrapped Up Thoughts

[StarkVegasSteve]

One of the more important weekends in the last few years of MSU baseball on deck for the weekend. We need to come out guns blazing and step on our throats. We need to find that swagger we played with on Saturday against Vandy and sustain it for the rest of the season. A few thoughts as the regular season is winding down:

1. Tanner Allen is exactly who we thought he was. Kid is an absolute gamer and if you can't thank Andy Cannizarro for anything else then thank him for TA. He's a special talent. He deserves to be SEC POY, but I imagine they'll give it to Kopps at Arkansas.

2. Landon Sims is something we've never seen before and we need to enjoy him for the next year. I've seen a lot of people try to compare him to Holder or Papelbon and he's definitely got the swagger of Papelbon and he's got the aura of Holder when he enters the game, but trying to find an in game comp for him at the college level is almost impossible. I'd have to probably go the early Chapman to find a comp. Just absolutely overpowers people with his fastball.

3. The loss of Landon Jordan hurt more than we could've imagined at the time. I think when he left we thought we had it figured out at 3B, but as the season has went on there's definitely times we could've used him. Having Leggett be able to play 3B has definitely softened the blow a bit, but I think most of us will have to eat a little crow on saying we didn't need him.

4. Our starters have been good, but not great. Coming into the year we thought we had 3 good starters, with two very special ones in Mac and Bednar. We again fell into the trap of believing that Cerrantola had honed in on the command. Now I won't say that our starters have been bad because they haven't but their inability to consistently go deepish(5+ innings) in games is definitely concerning. Now our bullpen has been able to bail us out most of time, but we really need our starters, especially Mac and Bednar to be able to go 6-7 innings a start here over the last month or so.

5. Our fielding started off bad and it really hasn't gotten any better. Our fielding just is what it is at this point. We're going to have to live with the errors and try to minimize their impact.

6. We have some young talent on this team that is going to be very good and Kellum Clark leads that bunch. Having TA and Rowdey this year has really helped soften the blow on the talent that we've lost over the past two years. I think without those two we're struggling and probably closer to .500 in the league and not even in the hosting conversation. However, having guys like Clark, Cumbest, Forsythe, James, and Leggett get high pressure at bats this year is going to pay off for us in years to come. And folks, Kellum Clark is going to be SPECIAL.

7. Brandon Smith, Preston Johnson, Stone Simmons, Cam Tullar, Houston Harding, and Parker Stinnett are going to determine how far this team goes. I know it sounds crazy to say that your middle relievers will decide the season but they will. We've got to have these guys be good enough to bridge it to Landon. We really need one more to step up and be a matchup guy for us. I hoped that would be Chase Patrick, but his sinker has trouble finding the zone consistently.

All in all I like where our team is at right now. Last weekend was disappointing, but go take care of business this weekend and you're hosting to Omaha. Let's Ride.

[confucius say]

What about game 3 starter? If not Fristoe, I'd put Brandon smith there and let Fristoe go to the pen. He looked good out of the pen. Plus Brandon is a veteran and a strike thrower.

Why doesn't Clark play first or third instead of dh? He is a corner infielder naturally, so I'm assuming he's better defensively at first than Hancock (so let him play first and Hancock dh) and he can't be worse at third than James (let Clark play third and dh James if he's going to stay in the lineup).

I think going forward we see skinner and cumbest platoon in left. Assuming Hancock stays at first, that leaves the remaining position battle at third between James and Leggett. Personally I'd be fine with Leggett there and dh Clark and letting James have some time off. He is 1 for his last 22.

[StarkVegasSteve]

What about game 3 starter? If not Fristoe, I'd put Brandon smith there and let Fristoe go to the pen. He looked good out of the pen. Plus Brandon is a veteran and a strike thrower.

Why doesn't Clark play first or third instead of dh? He is a corner infielder naturally, so I'm assuming he's better defensively at first than Hancock (so let him play first and Hancock dh) and he can't be worse at third than James (let Clark play third and dh James if he's going to stay in the lineup).

I think going forward we see skinner and cumbest platoon in left. Assuming Hancock stays at first, that leaves the remaining position battle at third between James and Leggett. Personally I'd be fine with Leggett there and dh Clark and letting James have some time off. He is 1 for his last 22.

1. I still think Fristoe gives you a better starter potential. Smith is more of a bullpen guy. I'd rather have him follow Mac or Bednar like we have now.

2. Clark playing 1st isn't a bad idea, I don't think he's ever played 3B. I imagine we'll see him at first at least once this upcoming weekend. The only problem with it is that we usually like to put Hatcher in as a defensive replacement and I don't want to take Clark's bat out of the lineup.

3. I still think you give James a couple of more games to get it right with the bat. But if you're going to play Clark in the field you'll have to make a decision on who to sit. It's either James, Hancock, or Cumbest. That's why I'd leave him at DH or play him at 1st for now.

[Hot Rock]

Very good assessment of this team and where it's at.

One thing, I didn't see a lot of people saying the loss of Landon Jordan wouldn't hurt. I saw a bunch of people saying they didn't know and/or he might be missed and needed.

I did see several say good riddance because he quit mid-season or it's better to cut bait than to try and hang on to a guy that doesn't want to be here. Even those guys were mostly saying he might be missed and they wished he had wanted to stay.

Losing your spot due to another guy not fielding well would stink. I thought he might leave at the end of the year but I never considered a guy quitting in the middle of a season. I guess baseball is very different with partial scholarships that other sports.

[HoopsDawg]

The lineup is set. It's the lineup we saw last night.

Only possible changes are Leggett at 3B which would move James to DH against Left handed pitching. And James could possibly be moved down the order if he doesn't break out soon b/c we need to protect TA. Other than that, the lineup has settled in.

We don't really miss Landon Jordan that much. I guess he would play 3rd over Leggett but that's about it.

[The Federalist Engineer]

(3) Thinking back, not many people were dismissing his leaving. The people that did not feel the loss, assumed that KJ would continue to hit. I certainly saw KJ as an All SEC type player to start the season, probably so did Lemonis.

(7) That's scary, but seems correct. If the starters don't get better soon and no defined #3 emerges in the final week, then you are 100% correct. We could go anywhere between 0-2 or Omaha with this group. I wish someone was hot and dealing regularly like Sims.

[StarkVegasSteve]

(3) Thinking back, not many people were dismissing his leaving. The people that did not feel the loss, assumed that KJ would continue to hit. I certainly saw KJ as an All SEC type player to start the season, probably so did Lemonis.

(7) That's scary, but seems correct. If the starters don't get better soon and no defined #3 emerges in the final week, then you are 100% correct. We could go anywhere between 0-2 or Omaha with this group. I wish someone was hot and dealing regularly like Sims.

If just Brandon Smith and Preston Johnson were consistent I'd feel a lot better. But they both will have two good appearances and then not be able to find the strike zone.

[AlSwearengen]

I think L. Tanner goes to the 3 hole. It keeps the RLRL thing going and he has been one of the better hitters over the last month. It sucks to say it but I don’t know how long you stick with James. If he continues to hit .100, then you have to put Leggett out there.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I think L. Tanner goes to the 3 hole. It keeps the RLRL thing going and he has been one of the better hitters over the last month. It sucks to say it but I don’t know how long you stick with James. If he continues to hit .100, then you have to put Leggett out there.

You're not wrong. It's the same thing we said with Hatcher and his glove, at a certain point your liability is going to outweigh your strength and we're getting REAL close to that point with Kam. Had we done what we were supposed to last weekend, this weekend would've been a good opportunity to sit him for a game and let him clear his head.

[AlSwearengen]

If just Brandon Smith and Preston Johnson were consistent I'd feel a lot better. But they both will have two good appearances and then not be able to find the strike zone.


I haven’t noticed Smith getting wild but I have noticed that his fastball will flatten out every now and then and that is when he gets hit HARD. Johnson, for sure is Jekyll and Hyde and Stinnett has really taken a step back. The word was that he was wild in the fall and not much was expected from him but then he came out early in the season and was nasty as hell. Not only has he gotten wild but he seems to have lost a little on his fastball.

This team is definitely bad on the nerves.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I haven’t noticed Smith getting wild but I have noticed that his fastball will flatten out every now and then and that is when he gets hit HARD. Johnson, for sure is Jekyll and Hyde and Stinnett has really taken a step back. The word was that he was wild in the fall and not much was expected from him but then he came out early in the season and was nasty as hell. Not only has he gotten wild but he seems to have lost a little on his fastball.

This team is definitely bad on the nerves.

Stinnett's problem is that he'll get a runner or two on and less than two outs but he'll get it out of it. That's why I didn't agree with putting him in vs Mizzou with runners already on. You're asking for trouble not giving him a clean inning.

[confucius say]

If just Brandon Smith and Preston Johnson were consistent I'd feel a lot better. But they both will have two good appearances and then not be able to find the strike zone.

I don't remember Brandon losing the strike zone. He only has 6 walks in 28.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .200 against him. 2.86 ERA. His whip is 1.0. And he is striking out over 1 per inning. Not dominant and May get hit some, but no real control issues.

Johnson has walked 10 in 19.2 innings. Opponents hitting .214. 4.58 ERA. Whip 1.30. Striking out almost 2 per inning.

[HoopsDawg]

Stinnett's problem is that he'll get a runner or two on and less than two outs but he'll get it out of it. That's why I didn't agree with putting him in vs Mizzou with runners already on. You're asking for trouble not giving him a clean inning.

that was one of Lemonis's worst moves of the season.

[StarkVegasSteve]

that was one of Lemonis's worst moves of the season.

That and not going to Landon in the 9th to preserve the tie. We could've pitched him for two innings and made sure we got the series win and then rested him for 6 days.

[Captain Falcon]

I think “one of the most important weekends of the last few years” is probably a stretch. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a big series and one that we need to win to preserve our Top 8 seed. But I also don’t think we should pretend it’s the end of the world if we aren’t in the Top 8.

Obviously we would love to host until Omaha, but is the “toughness” of the Regional really any different if you’re the 7 overall seed versus the 10 overall seed? Also, we aren’t getting paired with Arkansas, Texas, or Vandy in a Super, so even if we fell out of Top 8, we would most likely be the favorite to win a Super on the road. I am no more afraid of playing Texas Tech or East Carolina in Lubbock or Greenville than I would be if we played them in Starkville. If anything you can argue that we play better away from The Dude and might play looser in a road Super.

Like I said, you want to win this weekend and host until Omaha, but it’s not like we wouldn’t still have a very maneuverable path.

[Really Clark?]

What about game 3 starter? If not Fristoe, I'd put Brandon smith there and let Fristoe go to the pen. He looked good out of the pen. Plus Brandon is a veteran and a strike thrower.

Why doesn't Clark play first or third instead of dh? He is a corner infielder naturally, so I'm assuming he's better defensively at first than Hancock (so let him play first and Hancock dh) and he can't be worse at third than James (let Clark play third and dh James if he's going to stay in the lineup).

I think going forward we see skinner and cumbest platoon in left. Assuming Hancock stays at first, that leaves the remaining position battle at third between James and Leggett. Personally I'd be fine with Leggett there and dh Clark and letting James have some time off. He is 1 for his last 22.

Why? Brad is hitting both arm pitching better than Skinner and it’s not even close. That’s why you platoon, for match up purposes but there is no match up advantage for using Skinner.

[The Federalist Engineer]

I think “one of the most important weekends of the last few years” is probably a stretch. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a big series and one that we need to win to preserve our Top 8 seed. But I also don’t think we should pretend it’s the end of the world if we aren’t in the Top 8.

Obviously we would love to host until Omaha, but is the “toughness” of the Regional really any different if you’re the 7 overall seed versus the 10 overall seed? Also, we aren’t getting paired with Arkansas, Texas, or Vandy in a Super, so even if we fell out of Top 8, we would most likely be the favorite to win a Super on the road. I am no more afraid of playing Texas Tech or East Carolina in Lubbock or Greenville than I would be if we played them in Starkville. If anything you can argue that we play better away from The Dude and might play looser in a road Super.

Like I said, you want to win this weekend and host until Omaha, but it’s not like we wouldn’t still have a very maneuverable path.

Playing in quiet stadiums outside of the SEC will do just fine. Better than home.

[MoreCowbell]

I think “one of the most important weekends of the last few years” is probably a stretch. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a big series and one that we need to win to preserve our Top 8 seed. But I also don’t think we should pretend it’s the end of the world if we aren’t in the Top 8.

Obviously we would love to host until Omaha, but is the “toughness” of the Regional really any different if you’re the 7 overall seed versus the 10 overall seed? Also, we aren’t getting paired with Arkansas, Texas, or Vandy in a Super, so even if we fell out of Top 8, we would most likely be the favorite to win a Super on the road. I am no more afraid of playing Texas Tech or East Carolina in Lubbock or Greenville than I would be if we played them in Starkville. If anything you can argue that we play better away from The Dude and might play looser in a road Super.

Like I said, you want to win this weekend and host until Omaha, but it’s not like we wouldn’t still have a very maneuverable path.

I think we absolutely play better on the road and would not be disappointed at all

[confucius say]

Why? Brad is hitting both arm pitching better than Skinner and it’s not even close. That’s why you platoon, for match up purposes but there is no match up advantage for using Skinner.

Defense. I think it will be cumbest more often though.

[Captain Falcon]

Playing in quiet stadiums outside of the SEC will do just fine. Better than home.

Right. Send us to South Bend to play in front of 1,000 people and I think we smoke them. Play the same team in Starkville and I think it?s more iffy and the bigger stage raises the tension.

[Really Clark?]

Defense. I think it will be cumbest more often though.

Well that’s not platooning, you are talking about defensive substitution, which would be consider in late inning situations. You have to look at the overall offense of the players if you are considering platooning guys. With us facing mostly right handed pitchers it would only make sense if Skinner was hitting RHP close to the same or better than Cumbest. Or if they had opposite splits that while unusual does happen but again we don’t have either scenario with those 2 players.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Right. Send us to South Bend to play in front of 1,000 people and I think we smoke them. Play the same team in Starkville and I think it?s more iffy and the bigger stage raises the tension.

It's way more iffy to play in a place where you're uncertain. You're staying in a hotel instead of your own bed, your playing on a field that you don't know how it plays, and you're taking away a home field advantage that only 3-4 other teams in the country have. I'll take my chances on the nerves getting to them and play at home.

[confucius say]

Well that’s not platooning, you are talking about defensive substitution, which would be consider in late inning situations. You have to look at the overall offense of the players if you are considering platooning guys. With us facing mostly right handed pitchers it would only make sense if Skinner was hitting RHP close to the same or better than Cumbest. Or if they had opposite splits that while unusual does happen but again we don’t have either scenario with those 2 players.

No, I'm talking about platooning. As in starting. And take it up with lemo, not me. I'm not saying it's the right thing to do. He said who plays will depend on weather, wind patterns, whether he expects it to be an offensive day or a defensive day. I personally believe that trends to cumbest more going forward bc it will be warmer and more southernly winds (blowing out to left).

[Gutter Cobreh]

Below would be the lineup that I would trot out:

1) Rowdy - CF
2) TA - RF
3) Tanner - C
4) Hancock - 1B
5) Dubrule - 2B
6) Clark - DH
7) Forsythe - SS
8) James - 3B
9) Skinner - LF

I know this doesn't follow the L/R/L lineup we typically trot out there, but just like football - sometimes you have to adjust philosophy based on personnel. Our lack of 3B & LF production is an absolute killer, as you shouldn't have two prime corner spots with the glaring deficiencies.

You can sacrifice bats for middle infielders, if their gloves are special - but it gets harder to hide when you have two other positions where you aren't exceptional in either hitting or fielding.

Skinner gets the nod over Cumbest strictly based on speed. James gets the nod at 3B because quite frankly we don't have anyone else.

[confucius say]

Below would be the lineup that I would trot out:

1) Rowdy - CF
2) TA - RF
3) Tanner - C
4) Hancock - 1B
5) Dubrule - 2B
6) Clark - DH
7) Forsythe - SS
8) James - 3B
9) Skinner - LF

I know this doesn't follow the L/R/L lineup we typically trot out there, but just like football - sometimes you have to adjust philosophy based on personnel. Our lack of 3B & LF production is an absolute killer, as you shouldn't have two prime corner spots with the glaring deficiencies.

You can sacrifice bats for middle infielders, if their gloves are special - but it gets harder to hide when you have two other positions where you aren't exceptional in either hitting or fielding.

Skinner gets the nod over Cumbest strictly based on speed. James gets the nod at 3B because quite frankly we don't have anyone else.

If you're moving James to the bottom bc of his bat, why not put Legget there hitting 8th and let him play third? Leggett is so much better defensively.

[Really Clark?]

Below would be the lineup that I would trot out:

1) Rowdy - CF
2) TA - RF
3) Tanner - C
4) Hancock - 1B
5) Dubrule - 2B
6) Clark - DH
7) Forsythe - SS
8) James - 3B
9) Skinner - LF

I know this doesn't follow the L/R/L lineup we typically trot out there, but just like football - sometimes you have to adjust philosophy based on personnel. Our lack of 3B & LF production is an absolute killer, as you shouldn't have two prime corner spots with the glaring deficiencies.

You can sacrifice bats for middle infielders, if their gloves are special - but it gets harder to hide when you have two other positions where you aren't exceptional in either hitting or fielding.

Skinner gets the nod over Cumbest strictly based on speed. James gets the nod at 3B because quite frankly we don't have anyone else.

Skinner is not that much faster than Brad, Brad has the better arm and offensively it’s not close. Combined attributes and statistical comparison would have Brad significantly ahead in WaR, etc. You wrote about lack of production at 3rd and LF then decided to remove a more productive bat in Cumbest for almost no production for maybe a little more speed. If there was a huge gap in speed, maybe it’s a bigger issue to address but it’s not.

[confucius say]

Skinner is not that much faster than Brad, Brad has the better arm and offensively it’s not close. Combined attributes and statistical comparison would have Brad significantly ahead in WaR, etc. You wrote about lack of production at 3rd and LF then decided to remove a more productive bat in Cumbest for almost no production for maybe a little more speed. If there was a huge gap in speed, maybe it’s a bigger issue to address but it’s not.

I agree. Cumbests error Saturday May have hurt him in lemos eyes though.

Now if we get to Omaha, skinner could be a weapon in that huge ballpark that is more pitcher friendly.

[Really Clark?]

I agree. Cumbests error Saturday May have hurt him in lemos eyes though.

Now if we get to Omaha, skinner could be a weapon in that huge ballpark that is more pitcher friendly.

No question, we saw with Clark starting...then did the same thing. Brain farts on plays that didn’t need to be fielded that way.

I have thought about that, but more so with Mac pitching for it to make a little more sense. But I would be hard pressed to start a game with Skinner giving basically nothing at the plate right now. Late inning defensive sub makes the most sense but I could see coach doing it

[confucius say]

No question, we saw with Clark starting...then did the same thing. Brain farts on plays that didn’t need to be fielded that way.

I have thought about that, but more so with Mac pitching for it to make a little more sense. But I would be hard pressed to start a game with Skinner giving basically nothing at the plate right now. Late inning defensive sub makes the most sense but I could see coach doing it

I agree.

[HoopsDawg]

Below would be the lineup that I would trot out:

1) Rowdy - CF
2) TA - RF
3) Tanner - C
4) Hancock - 1B
5) Dubrule - 2B
6) Clark - DH
7) Forsythe - SS
8) James - 3B
9) Skinner - LF

I know this doesn't follow the L/R/L lineup we typically trot out there, but just like football - sometimes you have to adjust philosophy based on personnel. Our lack of 3B & LF production is an absolute killer, as you shouldn't have two prime corner spots with the glaring deficiencies.

You can sacrifice bats for middle infielders, if their gloves are special - but it gets harder to hide when you have two other positions where you aren't exceptional in either hitting or fielding.

Skinner gets the nod over Cumbest strictly based on speed. James gets the nod at 3B because quite frankly we don't have anyone else.

Forsythe 7 hole? No thanks

[HoopsDawg]

The lineup vs Righties is obvious at this point:

1. Rowdey, CF
2. TA, RF
3. Logan Tanner, C
4. Hancock, 1B
5. Kam James, 3B
6. Dubrule, 2B
7. Cumbest, LF
8. Clark, DH
9. Forsythe, SS

Vs a Left handed starter you can make the case to:

substitute Leggett for Clark and move James to DH. Or just leave it the same depends on how Clark adjust to Left handed pitching.

[confucius say]

The lineup vs Righties is obvious at this point:

1. Rowdey, CF
2. TA, RF
3. Logan Tanner, C
4. Hancock, 1B
5. Kam James, 3B
6. Dubrule, 2B
7. Cumbest, LF
8. Clark, DH
9. Forsythe, SS

Vs a Left handed starter you can make the case to:

substitute Leggett for Clark and move James to DH. Or just leave it the same depends on how Clark adjust to Left handed pitching.

James is 1-22 and is behind every other normal starter in batting average except Forsythe. I know he has tools, but I think the question is how far do you go with him before you replace him with Leggett, who is much better defensively?

[HoopsDawg]

James is 1-22 and is behind every other normal starter in batting average except Forsythe. I know he has tools, but I think the question is how far do you go with him before you replace him with Leggett, who is much better defensively?

James is batting .268 despite this slump he is currently in. He also has 8 homers on a team that doesn't have a ton of power. Also at least 5 of his errors were at SS. I'm giving him a lot of rope. He just has to learn to lay off the slider.

[HoopsDawg]

The lineup vs Righties is obvious at this point:

1. Rowdey, CF
2. TA, RF
3. Logan Tanner, C
4. Hancock, 1B
5. Kam James, 3B
6. Dubrule, 2B
7. Cumbest, LF
8. Clark, DH
9. Forsythe, SS

Vs a Left handed starter you can make the case to:

substitute Leggett for Clark and move James to DH. Or just leave it the same depends on how Clark adjust to Left handed pitching.

Lemo almost got it right tonight but he is starting Leggett over Cumbest. Giving up a lot of offense. Giving up LF defense. And only thing gained is 3B defense.

[confucius say]

Basically he is choosing James's bat over cumbest. Bc he could put cumbest in left and slide Clark to dh in place of janes.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Basically he is choosing James's bat over Cumbest. Bc he could put Cumbest in left and slide Clark to dh in place of janes.

James and Cumbest need a summer and Fall of re-Tooling and re-Setting. Not meant to be derogatory, they are both All SEC and All Americans in their upside.

They are 1st Round picks if they played as good as they looked. Polk has all but said on the radio that Cumbest needs to pick baseball or football.

Someone remind me, did not Brent Rooker go to a Memphis-Area hitting and development Guru prior to his monster year?

[HoopsDawg]

James and Cumbest need a summer and Fall of re-Tooling and re-Setting. Not meant to be derogatory, they are both All SEC and All Americans in their upside.

They are 1st Round picks if they played as good as they looked. Polk has all but said on the radio that Cumbest needs to pick baseball or football.

Someone remind me, did not Brent Rooker go to a Memphis-Area hitting and development Guru prior to his monster year?

Yes. Rooker worked with someone outside the program. He made a couple of swing changes such as eliminating his back shift on his load. We know how that turned out. Triple Crown.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Yes. Rooker worked with someone outside the program. He made a couple of swing changes such as eliminating his back shift on his load. We know how that turned out. Triple Crown.

Guys with the tools of James and Cumbest could invest in that. They are legit elite athletes and pro players prospects.