Keep an eye on Tuesday

[starkvegasdawg]

It's not getting a lot of talk so far even though we are under a slight risk from the SPC, but it's just one of those days I'm getting a vibe about. It may just end up being gas from the late night nachos last night, but we'll see. NAM3K is showing a broken line of storms with discrete cells out ahead of it Tuesday afternoon and evening. There should be plenty of instability and just enough shear to work with to produce severe storms. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up on an enhanced risk before we're all said and done.

[99jc]

i hope it was just gas.

[CadaverDawg]

What areas? Whole State?

[starkvegasdawg]

What areas? Whole State?

As of right now, yes. I'm sure threat areas will be fine tuned the closer we get. If I were a betting person now I'd say from Hwy 84 north.

[starkvegasdawg]

Confirmed tornado south of Gordo. Going to pass between there and Tuscaloosa. Large section of MS now under a watch. There appears to be just enough shear and juice in the atmosphere to allow for a few brief tornadoes.

[TUSK]

Confirmed tornado south of Gordo. Going to pass between there and Tuscaloosa. Large section of MS now under a watch. There appears to be just enough shear and juice in the atmosphere to allow for a few brief tornadoes.

Nice.

[starkvegasdawg]

Confirmed tornado south of Tchula moving NE.

[confucius say]

Was today even an alert day? Three tornadoes on the ground as of now.

[starkvegasdawg]

Was today even an alert day? Three tornadoes on the ground as of now.

We were under a slight risk with 5% tornado probabilities. I just wasn't impressed with the set up until here recently. We have the little storms that could tonight.

[starkvegasdawg]

Now add a particularly dangerous situation warning south of yazoo city.

[parabrave]

Dan these came out of nowhere.

[HaggardDawg]

I tell you what, I really hate to see the day David Hartman with WAPT retires. He is so good at his job.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC now saying these storms are expected to continue to be tornadic for the next three hours and some could be significant. I vastly underestimated today. Take any warnings you may go under seriously as the storms track towards I-55 in north central MS.

[parabrave]

Cell west of Crystal Springs looks like Richland area in the path if it holds together

[WinningIsRelentless]

Mema reporting numerous homes destroyed in Yazoo City

[starkvegasdawg]

Mema reporting numerous homes destroyed in Yazoo City

I think this is going to end up being a significant tornado.

[shoeless joe]

Tin Lizzie and now late nite nachos? Dude...u gotta eat better so you can keep us updated on the weather!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Yazoo city storm has cycled and has now produced another tornado near Durant. Current track will take it very close to the Starkville area in 70-90 minutes.

[confucius say]

Yazoo city storm has cycled and has now produced another tornado near Durant. Current track will take it very close to the Starkville area in 70-90 minutes.

Could it hold together that long?

[parabrave]

One over Byram headed to Richland Brandon

[starkvegasdawg]

Could it hold together that long?

These have been cycling so it's possible but far from guaranteed.

[parabrave]

Where is Tinsley?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0a1VGFXIAIx193?format=jpg&name=small

[parabrave]

Another good pic from Hinds county

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0bPIAVWEAMN5uK?format=jpg&name=medium

[DownwardDawg]

Bump for updates

[parabrave]

Hey DD according to GFS you and CC gonna be in the crosshairs tomorrow evening.

[Commercecomet24]

Hey DD according to GFS you and CC gonna be in the crosshairs tomorrow evening.

I'm not surprised lol! My son's graduating from usm tomorrow night too! Ought to be an interesting evening.

[DownwardDawg]

I'm not surprised lol! My son's graduating from usm tomorrow night too! Ought to be an interesting evening.

Congratulations Brother!!!! Stay safe.

[DownwardDawg]

Hey DD according to GFS you and CC gonna be in the crosshairs tomorrow evening.

Thanks man.

[Commercecomet24]

Congratulations Brother!!!! Stay safe.

Appreciate that! You too!

[RocketDawg]

Where is Tinsley?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0a1VGFXIAIx193?format=jpg&name=small

Pretty impressive. Is that the one that the guy lost his drone while videoing?

[starkvegasdawg]

There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's storms. The HRRR is developing a morning round of storms and then an afternoon round. The afternoon round will be the one to watch, but how bad it is will depend on how long the morning round hangs around and how long the atmosphere has to reload before the afternoon round kicks off. There will be very little cap tomorrow so storm mode could get very messy very quickly. That will ramp down the tornado threat leaving large hail and straight line winds as the main threat. If any kind of cap can hold storm initiation at bay until mid afternoon then storm mode would at least start out discrete and have a little more of a tornado threat. The HRRR is showing a few discrete cells from south of meridian up to east of Birmingham tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The NAM3K is showing almost no morning convection and storm mode initiating as discrete cells and staying that way longer before going linear. If that scenario plays out then expect more of a tornado threat. My thoughts is if the cap is basically nil then storms will be popping up most of the day and quickly become a huge mess and reducing the tornado threat. Reduce...not eliminate. Instability tomorrow will be extremely high with models showing 3,000-5,0000 CAPE values. Typically, you just need it 1,500 or so to get severe storms. Shear values, however, will be more meager so storm updrafts will have a harder time maintaining themselves and rotating.

The evening runs of the high res models should be in around 10 or so tonight. I'll take a look at them and update again.

[DownwardDawg]

There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's storms. The HRRR is developing a morning round of storms and then an afternoon round. The afternoon round will be the one to watch, but how bad it is will depend on how long the morning round hangs around and how long the atmosphere has to reload before the afternoon round kicks off. There will be very little cap tomorrow so storm mode could get very messy very quickly. That will ramp down the tornado threat leaving large hail and straight line winds as the main threat. If any kind of cap can hold storm initiation at bay until mid afternoon then storm mode would at least start out discrete and have a little more of a tornado threat. The HRRR is showing a few discrete cells from south of meridian up to east of Birmingham tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The NAM3K is showing almost no morning convection and storm mode initiating as discrete cells and staying that way longer before going linear. If that scenario plays out then expect more of a tornado threat. My thoughts is if the cap is basically nil then storms will be popping up most of the day and quickly become a huge mess and reducing the tornado threat. Reduce...not eliminate. Instability tomorrow will be extremely high with models showing 3,000-5,0000 CAPE values. Typically, you just need it 1,500 or so to get severe storms. Shear values, however, will be more meager so storm updrafts will have a harder time maintaining themselves and rotating.

The evening runs of the high res models should be in around 10 or so tonight. I'll take a look at them and update again.


Thanks for the update!!!

[Commercecomet24]

There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's storms. The HRRR is developing a morning round of storms and then an afternoon round. The afternoon round will be the one to watch, but how bad it is will depend on how long the morning round hangs around and how long the atmosphere has to reload before the afternoon round kicks off. There will be very little cap tomorrow so storm mode could get very messy very quickly. That will ramp down the tornado threat leaving large hail and straight line winds as the main threat. If any kind of cap can hold storm initiation at bay until mid afternoon then storm mode would at least start out discrete and have a little more of a tornado threat. The HRRR is showing a few discrete cells from south of meridian up to east of Birmingham tomorrow afternoon ahead of the main line. The NAM3K is showing almost no morning convection and storm mode initiating as discrete cells and staying that way longer before going linear. If that scenario plays out then expect more of a tornado threat. My thoughts is if the cap is basically nil then storms will be popping up most of the day and quickly become a huge mess and reducing the tornado threat. Reduce...not eliminate. Instability tomorrow will be extremely high with models showing 3,000-5,0000 CAPE values. Typically, you just need it 1,500 or so to get severe storms. Shear values, however, will be more meager so storm updrafts will have a harder time maintaining themselves and rotating.

The evening runs of the high res models should be in around 10 or so tonight. I'll take a look at them and update again.

Thanks man! Keep us posted!

[starkvegasdawg]

Not really much change with the 00z models. Maybe the only thing of note is the NAM3k is trending more towards the HRRR with a messy afternoon storm mode. Also seemed to show a little bit better shot at discrete cells further north. Even though, I'm still not convinced tomorrow sees a lot of tornadoes, I do think it sees a few. Biggest threats look to be large hail early on mainly in the western part of the state and damaging straight line winds statewide. The tornado threat will be statewide, too.

[Churchill]

Large area tornado watch just issued for central Ms into Al. Also there is a cell south of Brandon headed east that looks like it could stay together quite a while.

[confucius say]

How do the morning models look svd?

[starkvegasdawg]

Since my truck / chase vehicle is in the shop having to borrow the wife's car to chase today. She's thrilled let me tell you. So far, storms are having a hard time maintaining rotation. Had one a few minutes ago Jen over Starkville but lost rotation just as it got to me. Storms will still be more than capable of large hail and high winds over most of the state. The afternoon round is just now kicking off so see how well they can take advantage of peak day item heating.

[Commercecomet24]

Since my truck / chase vehicle is in the shop having to borrow the wife's car to chase today. She's thrilled let me tell you. So far, storms are having a hard time maintaining rotation. Had one a few minutes ago Jen over Starkville but lost rotation just as it got to me. Storms will still be more than capable of large hail and high winds over most of the state. The afternoon round is just now kicking off so see how well they can take advantage of peak day item heating.

Man if you mess her car up you'll never hear the end of it! Stay safe out there!

[parabrave]

Since my truck / chase vehicle is in the shop having to borrow the wife's car to chase today. She's thrilled let me tell you. So far, storms are having a hard time maintaining rotation. Had one a few minutes ago Jen over Starkville but lost rotation just as it got to me. Storms will still be more than capable of large hail and high winds over most of the state. The afternoon round is just now kicking off so see how well they can take advantage of peak day item heating.

Man telling you that she hates Jimmy Buffet and now won't let you use her car to follow your dreams thats grounds in some areas! *****

[parabrave]

Round 2 getting its act together around Shreveport,

[Treemydawg]

Since my truck / chase vehicle is in the shop having to borrow the wife's car to chase today. She's thrilled let me tell you. So far, storms are having a hard time maintaining rotation. Had one a few minutes ago Jen over Starkville but lost rotation just as it got to me. Storms will still be more than capable of large hail and high winds over most of the state. The afternoon round is just now kicking off so see how well they can take advantage of peak day item heating.
She doesn’t like Jimmy Buffet, and let you use her car to chase naders ? She’s a keeper hoss. You better hang on to her.

[Dawg_Lover]

Female here. I am trying to wrap my head around the fact that SVD?s wife even Considered allowing him to chase in her car, much less Actually Let Him Do It !?!

From here forward, she should be known as the long suffering wife of StarkVegasDawg. And, might even qualify for sainthood.

[Dawg_Lover]

Oh, and before I forget the lady known as the long suffering Mrs SVD, rightly deserves a very nice gift certificate for a luxurious spa day befitting such saintly personages as herself.
The amenities should include little things such as a massage, facial, mani & pedi, hair and makeup, complete with lunch and champagne.
And, we do not end there. No, indeedy!
Come evening time, your angel 😇 of a wife should be escorted forthwith to the restaurant, of her choice, for a dinner befitting a saintly spouse.

[Dawg_Lover]

Well, Sir SVD, hope you know I?m just poking fun at ya, and not really trying to rub it in .... 🤔 .... 😉

[Dawg_Lover]

Just now finding how bad it is in other parts of MS. I sincerely apologize to everyone, especially StarkVegasDawg, for the bad timing on joking around.
My hopes and prayers are that SVD, and everyone, are safe and protected from harm. I have family scattered all over those areas.

[TUSK]

Since my truck / chase vehicle is in the shop having to borrow the wife's car to chase today. She's thrilled let me tell you. So far, storms are having a hard time maintaining rotation. Had one a few minutes ago Jen over Starkville but lost rotation just as it got to me. Storms will still be more than capable of large hail and high winds over most of the state. The afternoon round is just now kicking off so see how well they can take advantage of peak day item heating.

Dude, just park in my driveway... I've got 2 Zero Gravity Sun Chairs I just bought from the Amazon set up on my deck and some Natty Light on Ice.....

[starkvegasdawg]

Looks like severe weather is winding down for all but south MS. Tornado threat also really winding down. Looks like my truck will be spending another night in the shop. Very aggravating, but being 17 years old and 300k miles I guess to be expected. Was in the shock of my life when I started looking at new truck prices.

[William Tecumsah Sherman]

I got caught between Yazoo city and canton on hwy 16 during the tornado warned storm. Dumb decision on my part. Vicious wind. Had to drive around 2 fallen trees.

[DownwardDawg]

Just now finding how bad it is in other parts of MS. I sincerely apologize to everyone, especially StarkVegasDawg, for the bad timing on joking around.
My hopes and prayers are that SVD, and everyone, are safe and protected from harm. I have family scattered all over those areas.

Your timing was fine. No one here takes things too seriously when folks joke around. The lack of responses to your posts just tells me that folks were really busy today and haven't read the thread much. It's all good.

[parabrave]

Just now finding how bad it is in other parts of MS. I sincerely apologize to everyone, especially StarkVegasDawg, for the bad timing on joking around.
My hopes and prayers are that SVD, and everyone, are safe and protected from harm. I have family scattered all over those areas.

You must be new here. Just remember it's always good to bash on TUSK/ He and Lambert love Marine Jokes also.

[MetEdDawg]

I got 6 inches of rain in 6 hours here in Bham Metro. 3.5 inches of that fell in 2 hours. Pretty bad flooding emergency over here. Schools are closed or going in late because roads are washed out and impassable and we can't get to places to assess the damage.

Had a couple small spin up tornadoes to deal with too. Been a crazy day over here in central Alabama.