Ok baseball analytics guys and message board coaches...

[CadaverDawg]

You guys all educated me the other day as to why your best hitters need to be at the top of your lineup....so how many at bats does Mule have to have in order to be hitting 3rd or 4th?

I'm not really advocating for that bc I kinda like him adding some pop to the bottom of the order, but at this point you really could make a case that he is one of our top 4 hitters. Lemonis is looking a little foolish for just now having him getting a lot of at bats. We'll see if he can keep it up, but he has been a pleasant surprise with the bat lately.

I really am curious to hear from the "hit your best hitters at the top of the lineup" guys as to what you would do with Cumbest at this point. I don't truly think he's a .380 hitter in this league, but at some point he is what his average says he is, right?

[Apoplectic]

Move him in front of Logan so he can see some good pitches

[Really Clark?]

Let him see some more pitches from a higher level staff. Had a great weekend and made adjustments on the breaking pitches. Was really encouraging to see him swinging it well this weekend. If I move him at all it would be to just flip him and Debrule who is also swinging it better as well.

[Todd4State]

The highest I think any coach would put him at this point is 5th realistically.

[CadaverDawg]

Rowdey
TA
Kam
Tanner
Mule
Hancock
Dubrule
Leggett
Forsythe

https://media.tenor.com/images/ac3ccd0155a900a8a81fbcc2ef3cc424/tenor.gif

[ShotgunDawg]

You guys all educated me the other day as to why your best hitters need to be at the top of your lineup....so how many at bats does Mule have to have in order to be hitting 3rd or 4th?

I'm not really advocating for that bc I kinda like him adding some pop to the bottom of the order, but at this point you really could make a case that he is one of our top 4 hitters. Lemonis is looking a little foolish for just now having him getting a lot of at bats. We'll see if he can keep it up, but he has been a pleasant surprise with the bat lately.

I really am curious to hear from the "hit your best hitters at the top of the lineup" guys as to what you would do with Cumbest at this point. I don't truly think he's a .380 hitter in this league, but at some point he is what his average says he is, right?

I don't think Cumbest is a top 4 hitter. In fact, we need to milk him for everything he's worth before right handed pitchers get the scouting report. Mule hits righties better than lefties because his arm are long &, due to righties going away from him, he's able to get extended while lefties come in & tie him up. Once the righties start pounding him inside, he's going to struggle. May even have to move off the plate.

[TNDawg35]

I would move him to 5th and move LT up to 4th.

Rowdy
TA
Kam
LT
Mule
Debrule
Hancock
Leggett/Hatcher/whoever else
Forsythe

I just don’t understand why Clark isn’t getting a look at 1st or 3rd with the corners struggling. He can’t be as bad as Hatcher batting or Kam at 3rd.

Also, we are kinda in a hard spot. Hatcher has been great defensively, but sucks hitting... Kam has sucked defensively, but pretty good at the plate... if we could combine the two, we would be good...

We have played like shit a lot of this season. We either hit good, or pitch good, or have a good game defensively. If we ever put it all together, look out...

[Lord McBuckethead]

He looked foolish as shit pitch hitting Skinner with bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th. That was dumb as 17. Skinner, slow roller to 1st 17n could be seen for 2 months.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Well I know this is elementary, but he could have a different setup for lefties versus righties

[Cowbell]

You guys all educated me the other day as to why your best hitters need to be at the top of your lineup....so how many at bats does Mule have to have in order to be hitting 3rd or 4th?

I'm not really advocating for that bc I kinda like him adding some pop to the bottom of the order, but at this point you really could make a case that he is one of our top 4 hitters. Lemonis is looking a little foolish for just now having him getting a lot of at bats. We'll see if he can keep it up, but he has been a pleasant surprise with the bat lately.

I really am curious to hear from the "hit your best hitters at the top of the lineup" guys as to what you would do with Cumbest at this point. I don't truly think he's a .380 hitter in this league, but at some point he is what his average says he is, right?

Not bad for a guy that should just be playing football - Some need to admit they were wrong here. According to Homedawg - he was just a strikeout machine in fall. I honestly believe he just lacked experience and we are seeing it change before our eyes. Man it's fun to watch him barrel one up. If he gets a reputation for more power, he will make opposing pitchers nervous with his big frame standing in the box.

[R2Dawg]

Rowdey
TA
Kam
Tanner
Mule
Hancock
Dubrule
Leggett
Forsythe

https://media.tenor.com/images/ac3ccd0155a900a8a81fbcc2ef3cc424/tenor.gif

That lineup is coming around at the plate. We have slowly grown this year hitting especially compared to early year.

[R2Dawg]

He looked foolish as shit pitch hitting Skinner with bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th. That was dumb as 17. Skinner, slow roller to 1st 17n could be seen for 2 months.

That was a terrible move. What was he thinking?

[DownwardDawg]

He looked foolish as shit pitch hitting Skinner with bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th. That was dumb as 17. Skinner, slow roller to 1st 17n could be seen for 2 months.

This

[R2Dawg]

The analytics are always changing so moving a guy just because a number is changing is chasing fools gold. Sometimes you gotta go with what you see and your gut. If Mule doesn't bat where he does, we lose a game to TAMU, plain and simple.

[basedog]

I don't think Cumbest is a top 4 hitter. In fact, we need to milk him for everything he's worth before right handed pitchers get the scouting report. Mule hits righties better than lefties because his arm are long &, due to righties going away from him, he's able to get extended while lefties come in & tie him up. Once the righties start pounding him inside, he's going to struggle. May even have to move off the plate.

Pretty good observation Gun, but a couple of things about the Mule. One, he hasn't played as much baseball as many because of him playing football. Two, he will get much better the more he plays, and yes he will have to make adjustments but he is a really talented athlete and in time he will be much improved. You say he may need to back off the plate, I have no idea but I will say he has a quick bat speed except when he is fooled by the breaking ball outside and he waves at it. To me he has so much raw talent and upstart to be a really good baseball player. Also he has show how good of a outfielder he can be, not saying he is Dale Murphy talent but he reminds me of him. He is going to help this team down the stretch, and he for sure will have the other teams a little worried seeing him in the lineup.
As you can see I am excited having him in the lineup, that clutch double hit in the 9th inning Friday showed me something, he was so tuned in and smashed the ball down the third base line, it's called getting confidence.

[Really Clark?]

I’m sorry but anyone moving Hancock anywhere past the 5th spot are out of their freaking minds. I can make a good case to hit him 3rd right now. He has a 7 game hitting streak where he is batting .379/.517 slash with 9 RBI’s, his overall average has gone up nearly 30 points in his last 7 games, gives us the most QAB’s on the team. You don’t move that down to 6th or 7th. And behind Debrule???? Come on guys, think this through and recognize where he is in the moment.

[Homedawg]

Not bad for a guy that should just be playing football - Some need to admit they were wrong here. According to Homedawg - he was just a strikeout machine in fall. I honestly believe he just lacked experience and we are seeing it change before our eyes. Man it's fun to watch him barrel one up. If he gets a reputation for more power, he will make opposing pitchers nervous with his big frame standing in the box.

I didn't say he was a k machine in the fall. He didn't play fall ball. I said he was a k machine this spring. And he does k at a high rate. He had a good sat and a big hit Friday no doubt. Roll with him. But like his first 4 ab's Friday, he's going to take his lumps.

[KOdawg1]

I kinda like Cumbest in the 7 hole because he breaks up all of the little guys at the bottom of the lineup. If you move him up, then you have Dubrule, Leggett, and Forsythe at 7-8-9, and that's not going to produce many runs.

[confucius say]

He is not a proven commodity yet. He is learning and developing and is comfortable right now. No way I would move him at this point.

[Cooterpoot]

7 hole can be a great RBI spot. 5 hole is his likely spot if he keeps swinging it. Too early to move him IMO.

[CadaverDawg]

All great points, but the analytics guys said you bat your top hitters at the top of the lineup so you maximize their number of at bats. So at what point is he as good of a hitter as his average says he is, and if so, why are the analytics guys not pushing for him to be at the top of the order? I mean, I thought you live and die by the analytics...not pick and choose when to apply them. Am I wrong on this?

For the record I'm fine with where he is, as long as he's in the lineup. I'm just creating discussion and debate

[KOdawg1]

I think the main argument to that is most don't think Cumbest is one of the top hitters on the team. I personally would leave him where he is, but to give Cadaver some more ammo, when you look at Cumbest's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which pretty much configures a player's luck, Cumbest has a .263 BABIP, which means compared to his batting average, he's actually been a little unlucky. So you could make the argument that Cumbest is still hitting at a high average DESPITE having some bad luck hitting it right at defenders.

Edited to add: it's important to note that Cumbest has roughly 1/3 the ABs as the rest of the regulars, so his sample size is significantly smaller

[CadaverDawg]

I think the main argument to that is most don't think Cumbest is one of the top hitters on the team. I personally would leave him where he is, but to give Cadaver some more ammo, when you look at Cumbest's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which pretty much configures a player's luck, Cumbest has a .263 BABIP, which means compared to his batting average, he's actually been a little unlucky. So you could make the argument that Cumbest is still hitting at a high average DESPITE having some bad luck hitting it right at defenders.

Edited to add: it's important to note that Cumbest has roughly 1/3 the ABs as the rest of the regulars, so his sample size is significantly smaller

Wow, that's interesting

[KOdawg1]

Wow, that's interesting

For comparison purposes, Tanner Allen has a BABIP of .397, which means he's benefiting from a little luck

[Really Clark?]

I think the main argument to that is most don't think Cumbest is one of the top hitters on the team. I personally would leave him where he is, but to give Cadaver some more ammo, when you look at Cumbest's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which pretty much configures a player's luck, Cumbest has a .263 BABIP, which means compared to his batting average, he's actually been a little unlucky. So you could make the argument that Cumbest is still hitting at a high average DESPITE having some bad luck hitting it right at defenders.

Edited to add: it's important to note that Cumbest has roughly 1/3 the ABs as the rest of the regulars, so his sample size is significantly smaller

Your BABIP is way off. He is at .486 which is very high and he most likely will regress. Hits-HR/AB-K-HR+ Sac is the formula

[KOdawg1]

Your BABIP is way off. He is at .486 which is very high and he most likely will regress

Hell maybe I did the math wrong. That's what I get for trying to be smart.

(H - HR)/(AB - HR - K + SF)

(21-3)/(56-16-3+1)

18/38 = .474.

So yeah, forget what I said before. He's been VERY lucky and will come back down to earth.

[CadaverDawg]

Well I think we can all agree that Cumbest has been a pleasant surprise. Personally, I wish he'd quit football and focus on baseball, but I get it....not many have the luxury of being able to play both at a SEC level.

[Really Clark?]

All great points, but the analytics guys said you bat your top hitters at the top of the lineup so you maximize their number of at bats. So at what point is he as good of a hitter as his average says he is, and if so, why are the analytics guys not pushing for him to be at the top of the order? I mean, I thought you live and die by the analytics...not pick and choose when to apply them. Am I wrong on this?

For the record I'm fine with where he is, as long as he's in the lineup. I'm just creating discussion and debate

He only has 25 SEC AB’s, let’s see where he is after next weekend. Personally, he would already been in the lineup more 2-3 weeks ago for me to already be at 40-50 AB’s,which would be the number I would like to see to broaden the discussion. Analytics are great tool but you also have to have a sample size to have a better idea of projections. The more you have the clearer the picture. We just don’t have that yet.

The K rate and BABIP are a problem for him in the analysis, the way he actually swung the bat this weekend and making adjustments at the plate this weekend are positives. Let’s give it a little more time to see what he can project going forward just a little better. I agree I liked the move and liked it for at least 3 weeks now.

[Todd4State]

All great points, but the analytics guys said you bat your top hitters at the top of the lineup so you maximize their number of at bats. So at what point is he as good of a hitter as his average says he is, and if so, why are the analytics guys not pushing for him to be at the top of the order? I mean, I thought you live and die by the analytics...not pick and choose when to apply them. Am I wrong on this?

For the record I'm fine with where he is, as long as he's in the lineup. I'm just creating discussion and debate
What a lot of baseball people have learned is you have to take the best from analytics and the best from what you see and know about a player to make a more informed decision.

[CadaverDawg]

He only has 25 SEC AB’s, let’s see where he is after next weekend. Personally, he would already been in the lineup more 2-3 weeks ago for me to already be at 40-50 AB’s,which would be the number I would like to see to broaden the discussion. Analytics are great tool but you also have to have a sample size to have a better idea of projections. The more you have the clearer the picture. We just don’t have that yet.

The K rate and BABIP are a problem for him in the analysis, the way he actually swung the bat this weekend and making adjustments at the plate this weekend are positives. Let’s give it a little more time to see what he can project going forward just a little better. I agree I liked the move and liked it for at least 3 weeks now.

Good stuff, I agree. Enjoy the discussion on this

[CadaverDawg]

What a lot of baseball people have learned is you have to take the best from analytics and the best from what you see and know about a player to make a more informed decision.

Very true

[KOdawg1]

I think it was Jay Powell that said on the broadcast that he's also starting to crouch more in his stance which shortens the zone and is helping him.

[AlSwearengen]

You can watch Cumbest and see that there are holes in his swing (a lot of this team is that way). He hasn’t played as much baseball as most SEC players so it will be interesting to see how he progresses with experience (same old argument with him and football). He can do well against avg SEC pitching but can look foolish against the good ones.

One thing to consider with this team, b/c of the “averageness” of the order, Lemonis may be trying to maximize matchups and pinch hitting opportunities later in the game by staggering L and R hitters in the lineup.

[AlSwearengen]

What a lot of baseball people have learned is you have to take the best from analytics and the best from what you see and know about a player to make a more informed decision.


Spot on.

[MetEdDawg]

I think it was Jay Powell that said on the broadcast that he's also starting to crouch more in his stance which shortens the zone and is helping him.

That's the big thing I've noticed. It's helped his pitch recognition a little more. Cumbest has the tools to play baseball at the next level. But developmentally he's way behind because he's a 2 sport guy.

If he's ever going to get better he needs consistent plying time, which he's getting more of. If it were me he would hit in the 6 hole next weekend. You don't want to change his spot in the lineup too soon because he will get pitched a lot differently sitting in the middle of the lineup and I don't think he's ready for that.

Let him stay low pressure in the bottom half where he will have a chance to drive a few guys in and extend innings with good ABs.

[Lord McBuckethead]

double post.

[Lord McBuckethead]

7 hole can be a great RBI spot. 5 hole is his likely spot if he keeps swinging it. Too early to move him IMO.

Look before we even think about moving him, we need to make sure he is actually going to play the majority of games. For some reason, Skinner gets the nod over him and for the life of me....I don't understand it. I still think we need to break up the order in which we have been running the last few weeks.

If we stay with our current order, except have Hatcher and Skinner out of the order for Mule and anyone else that can play 1st, then we are immediately better for 2021 run. I think Hatcher may have issues with his eyes. He just cannot see the ball. He may want to get his blood sugar levels checked or something. That is the only explanation that makes sense to me.

I would try to get Hancock at First when he is not playing catcher. We need the DH spot for McDoubles. Dude just makes solid contact over and over, but we cannot take Hancock's pop out of the lineup. Then there is Leggett, who shows a ton of pop. Maybe Leggett at first and keep Hancock as DH. I don't know, but we need more people that are looking to smash a line drive in the lineup. Line drives win championships. We need it.

As I type this, someone is jogging down University during a lighting storm and downpour. Idiot.

[Lord McBuckethead]

You can watch Cumbest and see that there are holes in his swing (a lot of this team is that way). He hasn’t played as much baseball as most SEC players so it will be interesting to see how he progresses with experience (same old argument with him and football). He can do well against avg SEC pitching but can look foolish against the good ones.

One thing to consider with this team, b/c of the “averageness” of the order, Lemonis may be trying to maximize matchups and pinch hitting opportunities later in the game by staggering L and R hitters in the lineup.

Good SEC pitching makes almost every hitter look terrible. Rowdy and Allen look like Freshmen out there on Friday nights....that is until the bullpen comes into the game.

[Rex54]

For comparison purposes, Tanner Allen has a BABIP of .397, which means he's benefiting from a little luck

No, it means he's been hitting the piss out of the ball gap to gap.

[Commercecomet24]

What a lot of baseball people have learned is you have to take the best from analytics and the best from what you see and know about a player to make a more informed decision.

Yep, this, great stuff, Todd! And I wll also add you have to make in game decisions based on what you're seeing at that time. There's a flow and rhythm to each game and what each player is doing during that game. Great coaches get to know their players and can tell when a pitcher is done and needs to come out or if a hitter is just overmatched and you need a pinch hitter,etc... At least that's been my experience. I love the stats of baseball and what they tell you but there's so much more to the game than just numbers.

[KOdawg1]

No, it means he's been hitting the piss out of the ball gap to gap.

Ahh you're back. Lovely..

[msstate7]

Hell maybe I did the math wrong. That's what I get for trying to be smart.

(H - HR)/(AB - HR - K + SF)

(21-3)/(56-16-3+1)

18/38 = .474.

So yeah, forget what I said before. He's been VERY lucky and will come back down to earth.

Not sure if they're keeping it updated, but here's a site that gives some advanced stats...

http://thebaseballcube.com/college/schools/stats.asp?Y=2021&T=20147

[KOdawg1]

Not sure if they're keeping it updated, but here's a site that gives some advanced stats...

http://thebaseballcube.com/college/schools/stats.asp?Y=2021&T=20147
Don't think it's updated.

[StarkVegasSteve]

No, it means he's been hitting the piss out of the ball gap to gap.

We're still waiting to eat crow BTW. They haven't had it at the ballpark lately.....or at all.

[Tbonewannabe]

Rowdey
TA
Kam
Tanner
Mule
Hancock
Dubrule
Leggett
Forsythe

https://media.tenor.com/images/ac3ccd0155a900a8a81fbcc2ef3cc424/tenor.gif

Only thing I could say is breaking them up with Hancock batting after Tanner then Mule gives you the Right, Left, Right, Left batting order. If you move Mule into Hancock's spot then you have 3 righties in a row then two lefties. Makes it easier for pitching matchups.

[CadaverDawg]

Only thing I could say is breaking them up with Hancock batting after Tanner then Mule gives you the Right, Left, Right, Left batting order. If you move Mule into Hancock's spot then you have 3 righties in a row then two lefties. Makes it easier for pitching matchups.

True.