D1 Baseball Regional projection

[KOdawg1]

Obviously it won't play out like this, but they say if the season ended today, we'd be the #4 overall seed.

Our region:

1) MSU, 2) Southern Miss, 3) Miami, 4) Jackson State

and it would be paired with #13 Charlotte's regional

1) Charlotte, 2) Florida, 3) North Carolina, 4) Northeastern


https://d1baseball.com/analysis/d1baseball-projected-field-of-64-april-27/

[Saltydog]

That would be quite the regional and a tough one at that. USM has an RPI now of 18.

[Coach34]

Whatever we have to do to avoid facing Rocker in Game 1 of the CWS. Thats a recipe for a quick exit.

[TNDawg35]

Shit USM liable have their own regional if OM and LaYech keep loosing. If we did get stuck with that, I would throw Fristoe against JSU and then have Mac and Bednar fresh for USM/Miami. Our bullpen is good enough to beat JSU with throwing everyone just one inning...

[TNDawg35]

Something else I didn’t think of... What about Harding. He has started against OM, Texas Tech, etc last year. We could always start him against a JSU or someone to save Mac and Bednar. We have plenty of options to start the games.

I wouldn’t mind going Ofer in the SEC tournament and resting for regionals and making sure everyone is healthy and mind right.

We have got to get the line up tweaked tho. We have a couple bad holes.

[InTheIttaBenaHotSun]

Looked at the OP and saw Charlotte but was thinking Charlottesville. I realized my mistake and that got me thinking about the Charlottesville Regional and who's projected there. Clicked on the link and was surprised to see D1 doesn't have UVA making the tournament this year. So I went back and looked at UVA's record over the last several years. From 2009 - 2015 UVA finished the season ranked 5th, 8th, 3rd, 25th, 11th, 2nd and 1st. An impressive run (minus the 25th). However, since winning it all, UVA has finished the season ranked 21st, 21st, Not Ranked, Not Ranked and they're currently 20-19 and not ranked. To have been such a power just a few years ago, this program has fallen off big time. It's not staff turnover. 2 of O'Connor's 3 assistants have been with him for 10+ yrs. Wondered if any of the baseball junkies on the board know why UVA has struggled so much since winning a title in 2015?

[preachermatt83]

Miami as a 3?? Geez!

[Ari Gold]

Something else I didn’t think of... What about Harding. He has started against OM, Texas Tech, etc last year. We could always start him against a JSU or someone to save Mac and Bednar. We have plenty of options to start the games.

I wouldn’t mind going Ofer in the SEC tournament and resting for regionals and making sure everyone is healthy and mind right.

We have got to get the line up tweaked tho. We have a couple bad holes.

If JSU is in our regional there is no way we should start a weekend guy. Would be a complete waste .
If he makes the post season roster you could run Cerantola out there..

[The Federalist Engineer]

Shit USM liable have their own regional if OM and LaYech keep loosing. If we did get stuck with that, I would throw Fristoe against JSU and then have Mac and Bednar fresh for USM/Miami. Our bullpen is good enough to beat JSU with throwing everyone just one inning...

Good plan - thats how you win regionals. Don’t throw your Ace on a low seed

[TNDawg35]

If JSU is in our regional there is no way we should start a weekend guy. Would be a complete waste .
If he makes the post season roster you could run Cerantola out there..

The only prob I have with Cerantola is I don’t trust him. If we run him out there, and he give up 6 runs, do we trust our offense enough to bring us back. Any other year I would say he’ll yea. But we have seen where it has taken us til the 7th or 8th inning to even break a mid week game open...

[Leeshouldveflanked]

I don?t trust Cerantola to pitch against Mississippi Valley.... last I checked they were 0-17.

[Homedawg]

I don?t trust Cerantola to pitch against Mississippi Valley.... last I checked they were 0-17.

Considering EC salt east has one loss on his career record to a swac team I'd damn sure not allow him to make it two.

[Captain Falcon]

The thing is I?m not sure we even have a true ace. MacLeod and Bednar are the closest thing to it right now, but there?s not a clear cut, ?save this guy for the 2 seed? arm at the moment. That could certainly change in the next month though. But as it is now you can make an argument for just keeping the rotation as is and trusting that your bullpen depth can help you outlast the other teams once you get to Sunday and/or Monday.

I would start Harding or Fristoe against most 4 seeds, but it also depends on who the 4 is. Jackson State is one conversation, but then there?s the occasional 4 seed that?s underseeded and has an MLB caliber arm in their rotation that scares you (SEMO in 2016).

[CadaverDawg]

The only guy that could lose us a game versus a SWAC team is Cerentola. Walks are the only thing you can't afford in a gimme game, and he would provide plenty. No thanks.

I'd start Fristoe, bc I don't think you can get too greedy and start Harding. Plus, Harding is a great Left hander out of the pen in key spots against good teams, so we might need him for matchups in the following games of a Regional. I think you go Fristoe vs a SWAC #4, unless Brandon Smith is good to go by then, I'd feel safe with Smith. If you could get by with Smith and build a big lead and use lesser arms like Spencer Price and Cerentola, that would be ideal. Then you have your usual rotation for the 3 key games and a huge advantage.

[Todd4State]

Why did they put Miami in as a three seed? They have like a top 20 RPI and they have been doing well in the ACC? It looks to me like they forgot about them and had to stick them somewhere. Looking at their resume' they should be on the fringe of hosting.

I suspect we would get an auto bid team as the 3 seed most likely.

[PGHBulldogBG]

That would be an extremely tough regional. Miami is very under seeded and USM is probably going to win CUSA.

[Ari Gold]

State
Acc ( FSU / Maimi)
South Alabama
Swac champ

Ole miss
Usm
Ga tech
Tulane

That’s my prediction

[TNDawg35]

That would be an extremely tough regional. Miami is very under seeded and USM is probably going to win CUSA.

I agree. Miami took 2 of 3 from Florida and was top 10 at one point.

[TNDawg35]

State
Acc ( FSU / Maimi)
South Alabama
Swac champ

Ole miss
Usm
Ga tech
Tulane

That’s my prediction

I don’t think Ole Miss hosts. They may be a 2 and have the “site”, but I bet they are a 2 somewhere. They have lost 4 series in a row and needed a 8 run 8th to not get swept by LSU. Plus they have South Carolina and Vandy still on the slate. I bet they end up at Louisville or Notre Damn.

[Todd4State]

I don’t think Ole Miss hosts. They may be a 2 and have the “site”, but I bet they are a 2 somewhere. They have lost 4 series in a row and needed a 8 run 8th to not get swept by LSU. Plus they have South Carolina and Vandy still on the slate. I bet they end up at Louisville or Notre Damn.

They also lost to UCF, got their tails kicked in by La Tech on the road which was an opportunity to get a big RPI win and they have a bad loss to ULM. One more series loss and they're probably toast.

[Hambone]

If they are announced as a host site, they will not move them to another site. Now, it’s very possible they are the 2 seed in their own bracket but if they struggle again this weekend I won’t be the least bit surprised if they are removed from hosting.

[TheLostDawg]

I don?t think Ole Miss hosts. They may be a 2 and have the ?site?, but I bet they are a 2 somewhere. They have lost 4 series in a row and needed a 8 run 8th to not get swept by LSU. Plus they have South Carolina and Vandy still on the slate. I bet they end up at Louisville or Notre Damn.

Site will be picked before they play Vandy. They play USC this weekend and then TAMU.