Next Severe Threat on the Horizon?

[starkvegasdawg]

Next Thursday the CIPS analogs and the GFS is showing a severe threat for most of MS. Now 7 days out in weather is an eternity so don't go changing plans yet. Just a thought to keep in the back of your mind. And while you're tucking away thoughts tuck one away that there are some hints this may end up being a multi-day severe threat. We are now heading into the peak of our severe weather season in Dixie Alley so this is pretty typical.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ex6Dz4YWQAA1yzD?format=jpg&name=medium

[RocketDawg]

Well, if I recall correctly, the models have been pretty much on for 7 days out. They were not necessarily pin pointedly accurate, but certainly were with approximate timing and general area. In fact, in last weeks severe events, the short term models just a few hours out were off a little, with the "high" areas of concern being most of north Mississippi and north Alabama - but the actual tornadic weather was the worst south of Birmingham. So even the short term models aren't exactly right in the very near term. But, the long term models are impressively accurate, so we should count on severe weather of some type in the mid-South next week if the models indicate that.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has now highlighted a severe threat area for Wednesday.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyCbhUSXAAAvneC?format=jpg&name=900x900

[SaintDawg]

Any new updates? Looking like most of the energy coming through late afternoon into the evening as of now.

[parabrave]

Dam looks like Late Thrus and Friday with 2 waves going through central MS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021040418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

[TimberBeast]

We have been planning to head up to Starkville / West Point Wednesday night thru Saturday. Looking like that?s probably not going to be a great place to be at that time.

[starkvegasdawg]

Haven't looked too closely at things today, but as of now it's looking like more of a low end severe event with the main threats being hail and straight line winds for Wednesday night and Thursday. There will be a tornado threat but as of right now it's not looking overly significant. As for the rest of the weekend, the analogs are showing possible severe weather but there's such a huge spread with the models confidence is extremely low on nailing anything down. Some are showing storms and some dry weather. Main take away is unless something drastic changes the middle to end of this week is looking nothing like the last two severe events we had. Which is good as my truck is still sick in the shop and won't be out until the end of this week.

[Dawgology]

Haven't looked too closely at things today, but as of now it's looking like more of a low end severe event with the main threats being hail and straight line winds for Wednesday night and Thursday. There will be a tornado threat but as of right now it's not looking overly significant. As for the rest of the weekend, the analogs are showing possible severe weather but there's such a huge spread with the models confidence is extremely low on nailing anything down. Some are showing storms and some dry weather. Main take away is unless something drastic changes the middle to end of this week is looking nothing like the last two severe events we had. Which is good as my truck is still sick in the shop and won't be out until the end of this week.

I get to travel to Jackson on Thursday morning for business. Huzzah!

[TimberBeast]

Vegas or anyone have any updates on this? I see there?s a decent chance of rain Thursday through Saturday.

[starkvegasdawg]

Vegas or anyone have any updates on this? I see there?s a decent chance of rain Thursday through Saturday.

A severe threat does look to materialize late Wednesday afternoon across eastern AR and progress across MS late evening and into the overnight. Storm mode is looking to quickly congeal into a qlcs and being mainly damaging straight line winds, but there is a chance to get a few spin up tornadoes. Beyond this the jury is still out on this weekend. There are some hints a more significant severe weather event could unfold in the Friday/Saturday timeframe but as of right now there isn't enough model consensus to say for sure.

[parabrave]

A severe threat does look to materialize late Wednesday afternoon across eastern AR and progress across MS late evening and into the overnight. Storm mode is looking to quickly congeal into a qlcs and being mainly damaging straight line winds, but there is a chance to get a few spin up tornadoes. Beyond this the jury is still out on this weekend. There are some hints a more significant severe weather event could unfold in the Friday/Saturday timeframe but as of right now there isn't enough model consensus to say for sure.

I see that Harrison County is forecasted to have a gulley washer Sat. Now it looks 20 and south

[starkvegasdawg]

Jackson NWS just released a graphic mentioning the possibility of significant severe weather for Friday. It's not a slam dunk yet, but said a lot of the parameters are coming together to get their attention.

[TimberBeast]

About how far south into MS is that expected? I saw parabrave said rain down to the coast.

[BuckyIsAB****]

How we looking in the AM Thursday thru Saturday? Need to know if i need to bring the wet gear in the woods

[parabrave]

About how far south into MS is that expected? I saw parabrave said rain down to the coast.

This far.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021040618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

Sorry link not working

Its going to be a stormy Saturday on the Coast

[starkvegasdawg]

How we looking in the AM Thursday thru Saturday? Need to know if i need to bring the wet gear in the woods

Thursday should be somewhat dry. Friday looks...interesting. Saturday should be ok as it looks now.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Thursday should be somewhat dry. Friday looks...interesting. Saturday should be ok as it looks now.

Friday morning? Hope not

[starkvegasdawg]

Friday morning? Hope not

More afternoon for the main event but saying could be some scattered morning stuff.

[BuckyIsAB****]

More afternoon for the main event but saying could be some scattered morning stuff.

Thanks man. You guys are the real MVPs around here

[RezDog7]

Thursday should be somewhat dry. Friday looks...interesting. Saturday should be ok as it looks now.

Any thoughts on Sylacauga, AL Saturday morning? I will be there for a race.

[starkvegasdawg]

Any thoughts on Sylacauga, AL Saturday morning? I will be there for a race.

I'd pack an umbrella.

[parabrave]

So Reed Trimmer is locating in Greenville Where will SVD be??

[TimberBeast]

So Reed Trimmer is locating in Greenville Where will SVD be??

Is that for Friday?

[starkvegasdawg]

So Reed Trimmer is locating in Greenville Where will SVD be??

Today he's going to be home while his truck is being repaired. Will try to be out Friday night for those storms if I get it back.

[ScoobaDawg]

So Reed Trimmer is locating in Greenville Where will SVD be??

He's in greenville because it's a good place to be in front of the storms with good access highways to ARK and LA.

Tornado watch issued a little while ago. SPC expects storms to intensify over next couple of hours.
https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1379858915572256768

Actually he's already moved over to El Dorado, ar.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has done a rare mid day update to the day 3 (Friday) outlook. They've added an enhanced section with sig severe for most of central and southern MS for late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Your typical nocturnal Dixie Alley severe weather event.

[parabrave]

Yall be vigilant on the 20 corridor. Things starting to pop up west of Jackson

[starkvegasdawg]

Tornado warning for a storm crossing the river headed towards Hollandale. Storm has had a history of producing a radar confirmed tornado.

[parabrave]

Hey Downward and Commencent Yall be careful. Tornado warnings near Natchez. This system has been active for awhile.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Downward and Commencent Yall be careful. Tornado warnings near Natchez. This system has been active for awhile.

While it does have a somewhat tight circulation, I'm fortunately not seeing a debris signature on radar so hopefully the rotation is not on the ground.

[parabrave]

While it does have a somewhat tight circulation, I'm fortunately not seeing a debris signature on radar so hopefully the rotation is not on the ground.

Dam I wish I had your Radar/ All I have is NEXRAD courtsey pf WU.

[parabrave]

It's also heading due east to looks like Camp Shelby/

[starkvegasdawg]

Dam I wish I had your Radar/ All I have is NEXRAD courtsey pf WU.

Right now all that I'm using is RadarScope on my phone. $9.99 one time cost. Or you can upgrade to pro for $9.99/year. I've got GR Analyst on my laptop that I also use when I'm chasing.

[starkvegasdawg]

Storms over the golden triangle area up through Tupelo are starting to exit the state and weakening some. A small line is forming back behind it from a Greenwood to a certain town up north so have to see if it tries to eat its Wheaties or stay below severe limits.

[parabrave]

PK Coast dogs we got some storms to look out for coming in from Baton Rouge area

[DownwardDawg]

Hey Downward and Commencent Yall be careful. Tornado warnings near Natchez. This system has been active for awhile.

Thanks man. I warned the family to stay alert last night.

[Commercecomet24]

I hope everyone made it through the night safely. Lot of rain, lightning and thunder here in Jones County. Thankfully nothing severe. As always apreciate y'alls info!

[Churchill]

Discussion about high wind and large damaging hail ramping up with Friday's system.

[starkvegasdawg]

Discussion about high wind and large damaging hail ramping up with Friday's system.
Yes it is. Somebody might get some baseballs dropped on them tomorrow. And deviating from the NWS and SPC I'm thinking the tornado threat may be higher than they think. There will be copious instability and solid wind shear.

[ScoobaDawg]

Great... another moderate threat for MS and part of LA.

Stay alert everyone

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1380404493884350464

[ScoobaDawg]

well after further looking... i'm the one that's gonna be watching out for massive hail possibly.

ms biggest threat is high winds.

https://twitter.com/WxAtlantic/status/1380404672352112644

[TimberBeast]

I think the chance today on the coast was 60%, it was a perfect blue sky day.

[SaintDawg]

well after further looking... i'm the one that's gonna be watching out for massive hail possibly.

ms biggest threat is high winds.

https://twitter.com/WxAtlantic/status/1380404672352112644
Model confidence this go around? Last two major severe threats couple weeks ago, the SPC models said to duck and cover. While they did produce some, the systems never quite got up to full power. I'm not trying to monger in bad weather, just another opinion on the event.

[msstate7]

Am I just a vocabulary dummy or does it seem red should be "enhanced" and orange be "moderate"?

[ScoobaDawg]

Am I just a vocabulary dummy or does it seem red should be "enhanced" and orange be "moderate"?

Stick to braves baseball lol.
Nah, it goes from intensity of color. Green, yellow, orange, red, pink. or at least that's how i think of them from looking at these things for so long.

[starkvegasdawg]

Model confidence this go around? Last two major severe threats couple weeks ago, the SPC models said to duck and cover. While they did produce some, the systems never quite got up to full power. I'm not trying to monger in bad weather, just another opinion on the event.

Model confidence is high, but it was the last two times as well. That said, this needs to be a system to take seriously. It has potential to cause some serious issues and over a wide area due to the threat of straight line winds.

[parabrave]

Stick to braves baseball lol.
Nah, it goes from intensity of color. Green, yellow, orange, red, pink. or at least that's how i think of them from looking at these things for so long.

If you get Purple well bend over and Kiss it.

[parabrave]

Ok the HWY 98 and 84 gang here it comes. Tornado warnings Purvis to Camp Shelby and looks like the Natchez area.

[mcain31]

No power here in Columbia

[KB21]

Just rain and a lightning show in Oak Grove.

[parabrave]

No power here in Columbia

You have more TRs coming in from LA.

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/jan.png