First spring severe threats on the horizon

[starkvegasdawg]

The first one is Sunday. It it looks to be a very low end event and mainly confined to NW parts of the state. However, a potentially much more intense system looks to arrive Wednesday. While still several days away this one looks to have the potential to be interesting with all modes of severe weather possible. Jackson NWS is already mentioning it in their graphics and discussions as is Memphis and Birmingham. As of right now Birmingham is using the most ominous language as they're painting some pretty textbook severe parameters to be in place. Still a lot of uncertainty to be ironed out and exact strength and timing still to be determined, but if you have any St Paddy's day plans then be weather aware. As for me, this looks like it may be my first chase day on my birthday. And I'm half Irish. Got to be a good omen, right?

[Dawg_Lover]

Geez, sure hoping you do not end up chasing in the Desoto County area.
Yikes 😳

[STATEBALLIN]

Headed for gatlinburg tomorrow from the Florida panhandle. Staying in bham tomorrow night then on to gatlinburg Sunday. Supposed to be coming home Wednesday.

Thoughts?

[starkvegasdawg]

Headed for gatlinburg tomorrow from the Florida panhandle. Staying in bham tomorrow night then on to gatlinburg Sunday. Supposed to be coming home Wednesday.

Thoughts?

Could be a rough drive home. Timing is still to be determined but early returns are focusing on eastern MS into AL Wednesday afternoon into evening. Just connect the dots from Jackson to Hattiesburg to Birmingham to Montgomery to get a rough idea of the main target area as things look now. Then to be safe I'd expand that border another 50 miles each direction. Now, that area will change between now and then as we get closer to the event and more info becomes available.

[STATEBALLIN]

Could be a rough drive home. Timing is still to be determined but early returns are focusing on eastern MS into AL Wednesday afternoon into evening. Just connect the dots from Jackson to Hattiesburg to Birmingham to Montgomery to get a rough idea of the main target area as things look now. Then to be safe I'd expand that border another 50 miles each direction. Now, that area will change between now and then as we get closer to the event and more info becomes available.

Right on. I must add that I will be pulling a camper also. I?ll look into extending our stay one more night or come home a day early. Hmm...Will continue to monitor. Thanks!

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's the latest info. Area has expanded. You're typically looking for values of 65+ for significant tornadoes.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/MODEL/gfs212/2021031206/CWASPgfs212F138.png

[DownwardDawg]

Here's the latest info. Area has expanded. You're typically looking for values of 65+ for significant tornadoes.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/MODEL/gfs212/2021031206/CWASPgfs212F138.png

Edit. I see it now. It wasn't showing on my phone earlier.

[DownwardDawg]

Flying in from offshore to Houma early Wednesday morning then driving home to Hwy 84 Covington county. What are my chances of getting in?

[basedog]

Could be a rough drive home. Timing is still to be determined but early returns are focusing on eastern MS into AL Wednesday afternoon into evening. Just connect the dots from Jackson to Hattiesburg to Birmingham to Montgomery to get a rough idea of the main target area as things look now. Then to be safe I'd expand that border another 50 miles each direction. Now, that area will change between now and then as we get closer to the event and more info becomes available.

Dang starkvegasdawg, you bringing the heat as I am heading to Gatlinburg Wednesday for several days! Stop this madness*

[TimberBeast]

We?re driving home from Fort Worth to the MS Coast Tuesday afternoon through late night. Do you think we would end up driving through this? We were planning to hit Shreveport probably late afternoon and then South through Alexandria and Baton Rouge.

[99jc]

if you really want storm action head to texas-oklahoma and kansas..they are forcasting long tracking tornados next 2 days.

[starkvegasdawg]

While there's still some timing and other differences among the models, I am not seeing anything that dissuades me from believing Wednesday could see a significant severe weather event for MS and AL. I still can't mail down where the worst will set up this far out, so those of you asking about specific locations - I just don't know yet. By tomorrow the storm will be in range of the NAM. It is trying to show significant severe storms approaching the MS River by 7:00am that morning. Some of the other models are holding off until around noon for the storms to get into MS. All of these finer details will work themselves out over the next 24-36 hours, but this could well be a case of storms developing early in the day and not waiting for max heating in the afternoon. The early forecast soundings are showing a very favorable environment for storms to develop and sustain rotating updrafts. This will be conducive for all modes of severe weather including tornadoes...a couple of which could be violent and long tracked.

[starkvegasdawg]

The SPC has now updated all of MS to an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday. The ingredients may be starting to come together for a tornado outbreak. They did mention that there is still some location issues with the GFS concentrating the threat into southern TN and the euro placing the threat more into central MS and AL. They have come into better agreement on timing with Wednesday afternoon now looking like when things get serious. Details will continue to be fine tuned, but things are really starting to look serious.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwbePOVWEAARABm?format=jpg&name=900x900

[msudawg1200]

What about the baseball game on Tuesday? Any chance rain affects it? I'm driving up for my first game since Texas Tech last year which was the last games we played.

[K9 Avenger]

Bump

[starkvegasdawg]

What about the baseball game on Tuesday? Any chance rain affects it? I'm driving up for my first game since Texas Tech last year which was the last games we played.

Game on Tuesday should be ok.

[starkvegasdawg]

Overall threat is still enhanced but has now had a hatched area added for more of north and central MS for higher chances of significant severe weather Wednesday. Nothing has happened to lower the threat for this system. Winds to 70mph, hail to golf ball and probably bigger, and several tornadoes - some possibly long tracked and violent - still look like a good bet. Timing looks to be late morning through the evening. As of right now the worst tornado threat looks to reside along and just south of the warm front as it lifts northward tomorrow.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/images/spc/co/day3/severe/spccoday3.severe.latest.png?v=828

[Churchill]

You going to chase ?

[DownwardDawg]

Overall threat is still enhanced but has now had a hatched area added for more of north and central MS for higher chances of significant severe weather Wednesday. Nothing has happened to lower the threat for this system. Winds to 70mph, hail to golf ball and probably bigger, and several tornadoes - some possibly long tracked and violent - still look like a good bet. Timing looks to be late morning through the evening. As of right now the worst tornado threat looks to reside along and just south of the warm front as it lifts northward tomorrow.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/images/spc/co/day3/severe/spccoday3.severe.latest.png?v=828

Keep us posted brother. This is where I look first.
Still got my fingers crossed for my helicopter flight wednesday morning then my drive up I-55 and across 84 to home.

[starkvegasdawg]

You going to chase ?

https://media.tenor.com/images/b24a1ccdde1592d048dd9b64ade5a9e6/tenor.gif

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

With the 4/27/11 system ?

[starkvegasdawg]

With the 4/27/11 system ?

Nowhere close. That was a generational level event. This is more along the lines of an annual high end event.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

People were talking about this one with the same kind of hype. Still going to keep my head on a swivel. Thanks again!

[Churchill]

Not butting in to yall's conversation but there seems to be a lot more hype now ABOUT EVERYTHING than there was 9 years ago. LOL

[DownwardDawg]

Easter 2020 is my new benchmark.

[starkvegasdawg]

People were talking about this one with the same kind of hype. Still going to keep my head on a swivel. Thanks again!

The people doing that are either trying to increase clicks by scaring people or just clueless about how bad 4/27/11 was.

Here are the facts as they present themselves now.

This event will probably end up as a moderate risk day from the SPC. The environment is setting up to allow the formation of multiple discrete to semi discrete supercells...some of which will produce tornadoes. A few of those have the potential to be long tracked and violent. Additionally, the strongest storms could also produce hail up to tennis ball size and straight line winds up to 70-80mph.

The 4/27/11 outbreak saw 360 confirmed tornadoes over a three day period with multiple ef-4 and ef-5 ratings. The severe parameters in place that day were all off the charts. Not just one or two parameters...every mother17ing one of them. There was nothing you could point to that said that factor might limit tornado potential that day. It was PlayStation level numbers. This Wednesday is the type event you see a couple times a year in the US. Very similar to this past Sunday in TX. To get something close to similar to 2011 you have to go back to 1974.

That said, this Wednesday is looking very dangerous. The environment is setting to produce dangerous weather. If you go under a warning take it seriously and assume it to be worse case scenario until the storm has passed. There could be multiple rounds of storms so don't let your guard down once a storm or two passes. Don't try to ride out these storms in a mobile home. Plan now on what you will do if a warning is used for your area. If your plan is to take cover in a closet, make sure that closet is cleaned out now. If you know a friend with a storm shelter, offer to bring over a couple pizzas and a two liter of coke and spend the afternoon with them.

[RocketDawg]

The people doing that are either trying to increase clicks by scaring people or just clueless about how bad 4/27/11 was.

Here are the facts as they present themselves now.

This event will probably end up as a moderate risk day from the SPC. The environment is setting up to allow the formation of multiple discrete to semi discrete supercells...some of which will produce tornadoes. A few of those have the potential to be long tracked and violent. Additionally, the strongest storms could also produce hail up to tennis ball size and straight line winds up to 70-80mph.

The 4/27/11 outbreak saw 360 confirmed tornadoes over a three day period with multiple ef-4 and ef-5 ratings. The severe parameters in place that day were all off the charts. Not just one or two parameters...every mother17ing one of them. There was nothing you could point to that said that factor might limit tornado potential that day. It was PlayStation level numbers. This Wednesday is the type event you see a couple times a year in the US. Very similar to this past Sunday in TX. To get something close to similar to 2011 you have to go back to 1974.

That said, this Wednesday is looking very dangerous. The environment is setting to produce dangerous weather. If you go under a warning take it seriously and assume it to be worse case scenario until the storm has passed. There could be multiple rounds of storms so don't let your guard down once a storm or two passes. Don't try to ride out these storms in a mobile home. Plan now on what you will do if a warning is used for your area. If your plan is to take cover in a closet, make sure that closet is cleaned out now. If you know a friend with a storm shelter, offer to bring over a couple pizzas and a two liter of coke and spend the afternoon with them.

There's a guy on TalkWeather, Fred Gossage, who apparently is a TV meterorologist somewhere (maybe Florence, AL?, but I don't think they have any TV stations based there) who's getting excited about what's going to happen Wednesday. I just checked in there today - haven't been on that site in years and it's changed a lot. There seems to be a bit of chest-beating on that site now.

[parabrave]

Latest NWS forecast discussion and GFS has most of the severe WX along the I20 corridor up to and not including Rocketdogs house but leaving
TUSK ok. DD you should be ok. Just alot of rain

[RocketDawg]

Latest NWS forecast discussion and GFS has most of the severe WX along the I20 corridor up to and not including Rocketdogs house but leaving
TUSK ok. DD you should be ok. Just alot of rain

Yeah, I'm right on the edge of the whole thing, and that's fine with me.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yeah, I'm right on the edge of the whole thing, and that's fine with me.

Not sure exactly where you are located, but there have been some signals the threat area could expand further west. The day 2 update overnight will be highly anticipated. Will the area expand? Will it be upgraded to a moderate risk? What will be the tornado threat?

[DownwardDawg]

Latest NWS forecast discussion and GFS has most of the severe WX along the I20 corridor up to and not including Rocketdogs house but leaving
TUSK ok. DD you should be ok. Just alot of rain

Thanks Brother!

[DownwardDawg]

The people doing that are either trying to increase clicks by scaring people or just clueless about how bad 4/27/11 was.

Here are the facts as they present themselves now.

This event will probably end up as a moderate risk day from the SPC. The environment is setting up to allow the formation of multiple discrete to semi discrete supercells...some of which will produce tornadoes. A few of those have the potential to be long tracked and violent. Additionally, the strongest storms could also produce hail up to tennis ball size and straight line winds up to 70-80mph.

The 4/27/11 outbreak saw 360 confirmed tornadoes over a three day period with multiple ef-4 and ef-5 ratings. The severe parameters in place that day were all off the charts. Not just one or two parameters...every mother17ing one of them. There was nothing you could point to that said that factor might limit tornado potential that day. It was PlayStation level numbers. This Wednesday is the type event you see a couple times a year in the US. Very similar to this past Sunday in TX. To get something close to similar to 2011 you have to go back to 1974.

That said, this Wednesday is looking very dangerous. The environment is setting to produce dangerous weather. If you go under a warning take it seriously and assume it to be worse case scenario until the storm has passed. There could be multiple rounds of storms so don't let your guard down once a storm or two passes. Don't try to ride out these storms in a mobile home. Plan now on what you will do if a warning is used for your area. If your plan is to take cover in a closet, make sure that closet is cleaned out now. If you know a friend with a storm shelter, offer to bring over a couple pizzas and a two liter of coke and spend the afternoon with them.

That was insane. I love to hear you weather dudes talk about it.

[RocketDawg]

Not sure exactly where you are located, but there have been some signals the threat area could expand further west. The day 2 update overnight will be highly anticipated. Will the area expand? Will it be upgraded to a moderate risk? What will be the tornado threat?

I'm about two miles northeast of the Huntsville airport. I could almost throw a rock and hit the new Trash Pandas stadium, and could walk to the games if going through other peoples yards wasn't frowned upon.

[parabrave]

I'm about two miles northeast of the Huntsville airport. I could almost throw a rock and hit the new Trash Pandas stadium, and could walk to the games if going through other peoples yards wasn't frowned upon.

Hey if you get a chance go to the games. I got to know a few of the players when Mobile would come to Biloxi.

[TUSK]

Not sure exactly where you are located, but there have been some signals the threat area could expand further west. The day 2 update overnight will be highly anticipated. Will the area expand? Will it be upgraded to a moderate risk? What will be the tornado threat?

My back deck. come sit on it....

done.

[starkvegasdawg]

A moderate risk has now been issued for the areas in the Orange shading. Multiple rounds of severe storms could affect the state with the main round starting around noon and then ending about midnight over in alabama. Parameters still favor discrete to semi discrete supercells producing multiple tornadoes. A few of those do have the potential to be long tracked and violent. I'm still not completely settled in where I'm staging but strongly considering being around Greenwood late morning and then just seeing where storms develop. One issue which may make chasing hard is that these storms may be HP (high precipitation) supercells causing the tornadoes to be rain wrapped. They'll also be moving 40-55mph. So if you go under a warning don't go out in your backyard trying to see it. You may not know it's there until it throws your grill though your dining room window and peels your roof off.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/images/spc/co/day2/tornado/spccoday2.tornado.latest.png?v=16

[parabrave]

Well the 98/84 corridor is heating up this morning. So DD and CC need to be on the lookout

[DownwardDawg]

Well the 98/84 corridor is heating up this morning. So DD and CC need to be on the lookout

Lovely. Thanks for the heads up. Please keep us posted. I start work at 4:45 each morning and work until 9 or 10 every night. I just peek in here from time to time for updates.

[parabrave]

Lovely. Thanks for the heads up. Please keep us posted. I start work at 4:45 each morning and work until 9 or 10 every night. I just peek in here from time to time for updates.

You're up near Collins right

[DownwardDawg]

You're up near Collins right

Yea. 5 miles west of Collins on 84. Williamsburg/Lone Star area.

[Commercecomet24]

Well the 98/84 corridor is heating up this morning. So DD and CC need to be on the lookout

Thanks for the heads up! We always seem to be in the shooting gallery here lol. Appreciate all y'alls info!

[jgunn]

Starkvegasdawg, what are you thinking about Olive Branch area?

[starkvegasdawg]

Starkvegasdawg, what are you thinking about Olive Branch area?

You're in the area to catch the first round of storms early in the morning as well as the later rounds in the afternoon. Anywhere in the moderate and enhanced risk areas needs to be weather aware tomorrow. At some point I think the moderate risk area will expand to encompass more of west central MS.

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks for the heads up! We always seem to be in the shooting gallery here lol. Appreciate all y'alls info!

They're talking a lot about Jackson and Huntsville. Just like they were Easter last year........

[Commercecomet24]

They're talking a lot about Jackson and Huntsville. Just like they were Easter last year........

Yeah I'm not liking the way this is looking.

[shoeless joe]

I’m down here in the pine belt (southern smith county) for spring break. Tryin to decide between stayin here or heading back the the golden triangle to ride out the storms...looks like this far south is slightly less volatile. An recommendations from those of you in the know?

[Commercecomet24]

I’m down here in the pine belt (southern smith county) for spring break. Tryin to decide between stayin here or heading back the the golden triangle to ride out the storms...looks like this far south is slightly less volatile. An recommendations from those of you in the know?

Wow, I had no idea Southern Smith county was a spring break destination, ha!

[starkvegasdawg]

I’m down here in the pine belt (southern smith county) for spring break. Tryin to decide between stayin here or heading back the the golden triangle to ride out the storms...looks like this far south is slightly less volatile. An recommendations from those of you in the know?

Right now it's all a roll of the dice.

[shoeless joe]

Wow, I had no idea Southern Smith county was a spring break destination, ha!

Ha...I knew I’d prolly get that reaction. Gobblin turkeys and spawning bass have quite a strong draw for me!

[Churchill]

Is it my imagination or is the forecast kinda deteriorating for central Ms. (Jackson metro area) ?

[basedog]

Wow, I had no idea Southern Smith county was a spring break destination, ha!

Me to, but bring me some of dat sweet watermelon's those peeps grow in Smith County!

[starkvegasdawg]

The news gets grimmer. The moderate risk area has been expanded and they are contemplating an upgrade to a high risk. Below is from the SPC.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LA INTO MS AND AL A MORE CONCERNING
SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEAKER ASCENT, DRIVEN BY HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30-40 KT WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT. GIVEN WEAKER
FORCING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND ANY CELL WILL QUICKLY BECOME A SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AROUND 00-03Z, INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MS AND INTO AL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
MS/AL. IF THESE TRENDS ARE MAINTAINED, AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK
COULD BE NECESSARY WITH THE INITIAL DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

[State82]

Ha...I knew I’d prolly get that reaction. Gobblin turkeys and spawning bass have quite a strong draw for me!

Now that's what I'm talkin' 'bout!

[Commercecomet24]

Ha...I knew I’d prolly get that reaction. Gobblin turkeys and spawning bass have quite a strong draw for me!

I hear ya! Good stuff!

[mcain31]

I appreciate the you guys. I now live in Columbia and work in Hattiesburg. I'm going to tell my wife to batten down the hatches while I'm at work tomorrow

[RocketDawg]

The news gets grimmer. The moderate risk area has been expanded and they are contemplating an upgrade to a high risk. Below is from the SPC.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LA INTO MS AND AL A MORE CONCERNING
SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEAKER ASCENT, DRIVEN BY HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR NEAR 30-40 KT WILL ALREADY
BE IN PLACE WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT. GIVEN WEAKER
FORCING, THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND ANY CELL WILL QUICKLY BECOME A SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AROUND 00-03Z, INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MS AND INTO AL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
MS/AL. IF THESE TRENDS ARE MAINTAINED, AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK
COULD BE NECESSARY WITH THE INITIAL DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

Not good at all. When was the last high risk for this area? I know 4/27/11 was, but can't remember since then. Surely there has been one or two since then.

[starkvegasdawg]

Not good at all. When was the last high risk for this area? I know 4/27/11 was, but can't remember since then. Surely there has been one or two since then.

I think in 2014. Maybe 18.

[RocketDawg]

This morning, we had a couple of rounds of thunderstorms come through. The first was around 2 a.m., the second around 3:30. Quite noisy and lots of lightning. Ended up getting close to 3" rain. Off and on rain continued through around 10, but since then it's been very pleasant in the lower 60s.

[Randolph Dupree]

I've got to drive from Jackson to Dallas tomorrow. It's a travel day so I can leave and arrive whatever time suits me. Planning on going straight down I20. Any advice on when to head out? Anyway I can miss this stuff?

[Commercecomet24]

This morning, we had a couple of rounds of thunderstorms come through. The first was around 2 a.m., the second around 3:30. Quite noisy and lots of lightning. Ended up getting close to 3" rain. Off and on rain continued through around 10, but since then it's been very pleasant in the lower 60s.

It started here in Jones County about 12 last night and it's been pouring and thundering ever since.

[William Tecumsah Sherman]

SVD and others....thanks for the updates and info. I?ll likely be checking this site tomorrow for weather info. Hail State and stay safe dawgs!

[Dawgcap]

Keep us updated. I?m always on the road in North Ms. Cover 10-12 counties. I trust Elitedawgs for my weather info. Thanks for all y?all do

[starkvegasdawg]

Tornado warned storm for copiah, Simpson, and Lawrence counties.