Weather guys... Winter Weather next weekend?

[SaintDawg]

Probably still too far out to call, but news keeps bringing it up. Imma be traveling next weekend. What say you?

[basedog]

Iffy*

[AROB44]

Iffy*

You're too iffy....

[starkvegasdawg]

About half of the GFS ensembles are showing winter weather possibilities starting late next week into early the next week. What appears to be of high confidence is we will have repeated shots of arctic air coming into the region while at the same time a line of storm systems will be moving through. What is unknown is if any will time up perfectly to bring winter weather. Odds are at least one of them will, but just too soon to know. What is of concern is a lot of these models are trending more towards the ice side and not snow. We're long overdue for a good ice storm. The advice I gave my mom a couple days ago when this started looking possible is to get some stuff now before it hits the news and the stores become a war zone. Prepare for possible loss of power so have food that doesn't need heating or can be done on a stove top of you have a gas range...she does. Then if the forecast busts you at least have some stuff on hand.

[Dolphus Raymond]

I was looking at Windy.com and both models are now showing ice and some snow as far south as Hammond next week. While I am not by any stretch of the imagination an expert, it seems interesting that both long term models seem to be in some agreement. One thing seems almost certain and that is cold weather is coming.

[SaintDawg]

Thanks for the info SVD and Dolphus.

[basedog]

You're too iffy....

Mother Nature says "I can't be fooled" LOL

[starkvegasdawg]

To give you an idea of the uncertainty, the GFS has 20 ensemble members. The latest run has 3 of them showing significant snow/ice accumulations next weekend, about 4-5 showing light wintry weather, and the rest nothing. Right now it's anybody's guess which one verifies. This is all for the Starkville area by the way.

[TNDawg35]

Vegas Dawg, how’s it looking for the Memphis/Covington area. I saw one model where we were getting major snow/ice, but WREG is saying nothing. (Which usually means we’re getting hammered, I swear you can chalk it up. They say nothing to it, we get smashed. They say we’re getting a lot, we won’t see a flake).

[starkvegasdawg]

Vegas Dawg, how’s it looking for the Memphis/Covington area. I saw one model where we were getting major snow/ice, but WREG is saying nothing. (Which usually means we’re getting hammered, I swear you can chalk it up. They say nothing to it, we get smashed. They say we’re getting a lot, we won’t see a flake).

Memphis and parts of TN stand a better chance than MS do at this time. Where Starkville had 9/20 models showing possible snow/ice, TN probably has 16/20 showing it at some point next week.

[West Tn Dawg]

Biggest snow I have ever witnessed in West Tn was after going to bed and the weather man saying, little to no accumalation !!!!

[parabrave]

Biggest snow I have ever witnessed in West Tn was after going to bed and the weather man saying, little to no accumalation !!!!

Is Phil Connors your Weatherman? Didn't he predict the blizzard to hit Altoona?

[starkvegasdawg]

Starting to see a little more discussion about next weekend among official sites. Now it may we'll end up 75, sunny, and daffodils blooming but it's starting to pique the interest of the sources I trust...not Bob's Wild world of extreme weather on Facebook.

[TNDawg35]

Biggest snow I have ever witnessed in West Tn was after going to bed and the weather man saying, little to no accumalation !!!!

News channel 3 and 5 are horrible. Like I said, if they say we aren’t getting anything, you may as well call in for work the next day. If they say go and buy bread and milk, you may as well get your shorts ready.

I have never seen weather people so bad about calling stuff... I literally watched Dave Brown say one night that it was gonna be mostly sunny, but we may see some clouds and if you did, there may be some thunderstorms. But if the temp dropped quickly, you may see a rain/sleet/snow mix but if it didn’t, it would be all rain, but if not enjoy the sunshine... I was like what he literally just covered everything so he couldn’t be wrong??!!!

[TNDawg35]

Starting to see a little more discussion about next weekend among official sites. Now it may we'll end up 75, sunny, and daffodils blooming but it's starting to pique the interest of the sources I trust...not Bob's Wild world of extreme weather on Facebook.

Thanks man, keep us West Tn people updated of you see anything headed our way.

[Dawgbite]

It’s going to be the storm of the year, me and the Mrs are supposed to go to the beach for a long weekend. It never fails.

[RocketDawg]

Memphis and parts of TN stand a better chance than MS do at this time. Where Starkville had 9/20 models showing possible snow/ice, TN probably has 16/20 showing it at some point next week.

How about north central Alabama? We've seen virtually nothing but flurries the entire winter. Only 0.3" totall accumlation so far, and that might be a stretch.

[DLGDawg]

Is Phil Connors your Weatherman? Didn't he predict the blizzard to hit Altoona?

Many, many times. Lol. Great show.

[starkvegasdawg]

How about north central Alabama? We've seen virtually nothing but flurries the entire winter. Only 0.3" totall accumlation so far, and that might be a stretch.

Still got to see how it plays out, but from what I've seen north AL is definitely in play. I'm seeing some model runs coming in now for sub zero windchill values this weekend for north MS and AL. Basically anywhere north of 82. So snow/ice or not it's looking like it's going to be cold as balls this weekend.

[starkvegasdawg]

From the climate prediction center.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

[Saltydog]

From what I can see it's not looking quite as likely to be a huge weather event, other than the cold temps. Can someone update?

[viverlibre]

Great, let's get the coldest weather of the year after deer season! Can we petition Tater Tot to open a three day season for north MS for the upcoming weekend?

[starkvegasdawg]

From what I can see it's not looking quite as likely to be a huge weather event, other than the cold temps. Can someone update?

Latest runs are definitely backing off the temp and precip. Just have to see if this is a trend or one off. We may be getting our usual 37 and rain winter event.

[MetEdDawg]

Latest model runs have definitely backed off the insane temps and crazy event. Some ensembles are still showing it though so it's not to be discounted yet.

Still possible there are places in northern MS and AL that see single digits temps though according to raw data output.

[TNDawg35]

Latest model runs have definitely backed off the insane temps and crazy event. Some ensembles are still showing it though so it's not to be discounted yet.

Still possible there are places in northern MS and AL that see single digits temps though according to raw data output.
Same be said for the Memphis and North area?

[MetEdDawg]

Same be said for the Memphis and North area?

Right now the GFS model is showing Memphis being right in the middle of the nasty stuff. Snow, sleet, freezing rain type mix.

Also showing that the area could flirt with 0 degrees. Again, that's raw GFS model output, not Ensemble means. But if it were to verify and not change, Memphis would get the nasty precipitation plus dangerously cold temps.

[WinningIsRelentless]

Well that?s a bummer that the Jackson area will have no fun with this weather.

[RocketDawg]

Latest model runs have definitely backed off the insane temps and crazy event. Some ensembles are still showing it though so it's not to be discounted yet.

Still possible there are places in northern MS and AL that see single digits temps though according to raw data output.

It's been a while since it's been cold in north Alabama. There used to be a publication that was called "Annual Climate Summary" or something of the sort (there's probably still something similar), and the writeup on the cover page said that Huntsville "averaged getting to 0 once per year". I don't remember the last time we saw 0 here, but it's not been in the 21st century. The climate has noticeably warmed since I moved here many years ago.

[starkvegasdawg]

Models are all over the place. Some say balls cold next weekend. Some say 40 degrees warmer with a possible severe threat. Will it snow? Freezing rain? Hell if I know. Depends on what model you're looking at and what run. The euro is consistently warmer and wetter. The GFS is consistently bitterly cold and predominantly dry although a few ensemble members bring snow and ice into mainly extreme NW MS. A couple further down. The main gfs in the midnight run is painting a signification ice storm over the central part of the state with between 1/2" - 1" of freezing rain. Fingers crossed by Monday or Tuesday of this week they start to come to a consensus. I know everybody is waiting to see if they need to lose their mind in kroger or not.

[Dawgology]

It's been a while since it's been cold in north Alabama. There used to be a publication that was called "Annual Climate Summary" or something of the sort (there's probably still something similar), and the writeup on the cover page said that Huntsville "averaged getting to 0 once per year". I don't remember the last time we saw 0 here, but it's not been in the 21st century. The climate has noticeably warmed since I moved here many years ago.

Weird. It got down to zero with negative wind chills here in northeast Mississippi about 7-8 years ago. It seems we?ve got a lot of snow here in the past decade and more consistent lows that I haven?t seen in about 30+ years.

[TNDawg35]

Models are all over the place. Some say balls cold next weekend. Some say 40 degrees warmer with a possible severe threat. Will it snow? Freezing rain? Hell if I know. Depends on what model you're looking at and what run. The euro is consistently warmer and wetter. The GFS is consistently bitterly cold and predominantly dry although a few ensemble members bring snow and ice into mainly extreme NW MS. A couple further down. The main gfs in the midnight run is painting a signification ice storm over the central part of the state with between 1/2" - 1" of freezing rain. Fingers crossed by Monday or Tuesday of this week they start to come to a consensus. I know everybody is waiting to see if they need to lose their mind in kroger or not.

I’m sending the wife to Kroger today before it’s too late. Memphis looks to be gonna get the worse if it...

[DownwardDawg]

Weird. It got down to zero with negative wind chills here in northeast Mississippi about 7-8 years ago. It seems we?ve got a lot of snow here in the past decade and more consistent lows that I haven?t seen in about 30+ years.

Interesting. Down in south central Mississippi we talk about how we hardly have winter anymore. I really notice it because of how much I hunt. Especially October/November. It was a heat index of 101 opening day of bow season last year. This year it wasn't much better.

[parabrave]

This coming WKND looks crappy for Oxford north. Gonna be a soaker for South MS. According to GFS

[RocketDawg]

Weird. It got down to zero with negative wind chills here in northeast Mississippi about 7-8 years ago. It seems we?ve got a lot of snow here in the past decade and more consistent lows that I haven?t seen in about 30+ years.

It's been over 30 years in Huntsville - December 1989. That's a long time for a place that used to average once per year. Single digits a lot, but not 0 or below.

https://whnt.com/weather/valleywx-blog/frigid-thoughts-its-been-10995-days-since-huntsville-recorded-a-sub-zero-temperature/

[WinningIsRelentless]

Any updates this morning?

[Extendedcab]

It's been over 30 years in Huntsville - December 1989. That's a long time for a place that used to average once per year. Single digits a lot, but not 0 or below.

https://whnt.com/weather/valleywx-blog/frigid-thoughts-its-been-10995-days-since-huntsville-recorded-a-sub-zero-temperature/


I was in Huntsville in 1989 and I remember that cold snap, water pipes coming into the house froze; what a mess. Had to go to the office to take a shower!

[starkvegasdawg]

Any updates this morning?

Not really. Snow looking less likely in MS and ice more likely...if we get anything frozen. Models are having a very difficult time with this storm.

[CaptainObvious]

I have family in Cabot Ar. The current forecast is for 6 straight days at freezing or below for the highs starting Thursday-Wednesday. That hadn?t happened in over 40 years.

As far as Jackson area, the reality is that is South Central Mississippi. If you ain?t north of 82, it is rare you get any winter weather.

[starkvegasdawg]

Jackson NWS has introduced a graphic for light freezing rain for the extreme NW portion of their territory. Basically Greenville to Grenada and points NW. It looks as though we will have a sustained period of sub freezing temps so be prepared for that. They also mentioned other possibilities for winter precip as we head into the middle of next week.

[RocketDawg]

I was in Huntsville in 1989 and I remember that cold snap, water pipes coming into the house froze; what a mess. Had to go to the office to take a shower!

It never got above 0 the entire daylight hours, but the official high for the day (9 F) was in the very early morning, maybe 1 or 2 a.m. Wind chill was around -40. There have been colder times, but not when accompanied by such fierce winds that I can recall. The large lake near me (Lady Ann Lake) froze over. I've only seen that happen a few times over the years. I don't think we had any precip during that time though.

[parabrave]

I have family in Cabot Ar. The current forecast is for 6 straight days at freezing or below for the highs starting Thursday-Wednesday. That hadn?t happened in over 40 years.

As far as Jackson area, the reality is that is South Central Mississippi. If you ain?t north of 82, it is rare you get any winter weather.

Well they are predicting light flurries and ice on the coast next week/

[TNDawg35]

Memphis WREG is showing freezing rain Thursday. Around a .5 inch maybe more. Temps are Fixen to get cold, of course after duck season...

Anything you see VegasDawg diff than this for us Northerners?

[starkvegasdawg]

Memphis WREG is showing freezing rain Thursday. Around a .5 inch maybe more. Temps are Fixen to get cold, of course after duck season...

Anything you see VegasDawg diff than this for us Northerners?

I'm not. That looks pretty accurate. I just got through reading the forecast discussion from Jackson. While freezing rain looks likely for parts of TN and extreme NW MS Thursday, they're mentioning another shot for probably a larger area next Monday into Tuesday. If this one pans out it could be winter weather for a lot more of MS.

[RocketDawg]

I'm not. That looks pretty accurate. I just got through reading the forecast discussion from Jackson. While freezing rain looks likely for parts of TN and extreme NW MS Thursday, they're mentioning another shot for probably a larger area next Monday into Tuesday. If this one pans out it could be winter weather for a lot more of MS.

Just saw the Weather Channel map - NW Mississippi & west Tennessee had a slight risk of ice. Then north of that, a line with a high risk of ice ran NE through most of Kentucky (Lexington has an ice storm warning), and snow on the north side of that. Nothing in Alabama or even Nashville.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just saw the Weather Channel map - NW Mississippi & west Tennessee had a slight risk of ice. Then north of that, a line with a high risk of ice ran NE through most of Kentucky (Lexington has an ice storm warning), and snow on the north side of that. Nothing in Alabama or even Nashville.

There's a lot of uncertainty for Thursday night. We know the cold air is coming. We just don't know how far it will make it before the moisture moves out. If it makes it further than anticipated then more of the state could see ice. But keep an eye on early to middle next week.

[TNDawg35]

There's a lot of uncertainty for Thursday night. We know the cold air is coming. We just don't know how far it will make it before the moisture moves out. If it makes it further than anticipated then more of the state could see ice. But keep an eye on early to middle next week.

So sounds like I need to bring some more wood in the house.

[parabrave]

Well its storming in Biloxi/ About to get the skiff out.

[starkvegasdawg]

Monday and Monday night of next week starting to look very interesting for a lot of MS. Waiting for the 12z model runs to come in before commenting further.

[biscuit]

Any new word about an ice storm up here in Desoto County? The local news is awful.

[starkvegasdawg]

Any new word about an ice storm up here in Desoto County? The local news is awful.

It ain't looking good. Seeing predictions for up to 0.6" of ice. That will make travel all but impossible and right on the threshold for power loss.

Some of the 12z model runs are now coming in...primarily the GFS. If it verifies for Monday and Monday night...holy hell. It's showing parts of the delta with 12"+ of snow on top of 1/2-1" of ice. As far east as Starkville it's showing 1/2" of ice covered with 6" of snow. We won't even talk about what it's showing for AR. I just can't type that. All of that said, this is one run of one model, but things have been trending towards a significant snow and ice event for early next week. Make plans now for this type of scenario and if it ends up not being this bad then you're over prepared. Oh, also another potential winter event towards the end of next week. This is Mississippi, isn't it? And were in a La Ni?a winter which is supposed to be warmer and drier conditions for the South.

[parabrave]

It ain't looking good. Seeing predictions for up to 0.6" of ice. That will make travel all but impossible and right on the threshold for power loss.

Some of the 12z model runs are now coming in...primarily the GFS. If it verifies for Monday and Monday night...holy hell. It's showing parts of the delta with 12"+ of snow on top of 1/2-1" of ice. As far east as Starkville it's showing 1/2" of ice covered with 6" of snow. We won't even talk about what it's showing for AR. I just can't type that. All of that said, this is one run of one model, but things have been trending towards a significant snow and ice event for early next week. Make plans now for this type of scenario and if it ends up not being this bad then you're over prepared. Oh, also another potential winter event towards the end of next week. This is Mississippi, isn't it? And were in a La Ni?a winter which is supposed to be warmer and drier conditions for the South.

Better hit the Milk and Bread shelves early

[Matt3467]

It ain't looking good. Seeing predictions for up to 0.6" of ice. That will make travel all but impossible and right on the threshold for power loss.

Some of the 12z model runs are now coming in...primarily the GFS. If it verifies for Monday and Monday night...holy hell. It's showing parts of the delta with 12"+ of snow on top of 1/2-1" of ice. As far east as Starkville it's showing 1/2" of ice covered with 6" of snow. We won't even talk about what it's showing for AR. I just can't type that. All of that said, this is one run of one model, but things have been trending towards a significant snow and ice event for early next week. Make plans now for this type of scenario and if it ends up not being this bad then you're over prepared. Oh, also another potential winter event towards the end of next week. This is Mississippi, isn't it? And were in a La Ni?a winter which is supposed to be warmer and drier conditions for the South.

We live right around the North Little Rock area and the forecast has been back and forth all week for Sunday night into Monday. I've seen anywhere from no precip to a few showers, to what the weather channel is saying now and that's 3-5 inches during the day monday and 1-3 inches that night. It's all over the place.

[parabrave]

If you are a hang Glider or sail plane enthusiast you might want to head to Colorado. According to the Isobars it going to be WINDY next week.

[Bubb Rubb]

It ain't looking good. Seeing predictions for up to 0.6" of ice. That will make travel all but impossible and right on the threshold for power loss.

Some of the 12z model runs are now coming in...primarily the GFS. If it verifies for Monday and Monday night...holy hell. It's showing parts of the delta with 12"+ of snow on top of 1/2-1" of ice. As far east as Starkville it's showing 1/2" of ice covered with 6" of snow. We won't even talk about what it's showing for AR. I just can't type that. All of that said, this is one run of one model, but things have been trending towards a significant snow and ice event for early next week. Make plans now for this type of scenario and if it ends up not being this bad then you're over prepared. Oh, also another potential winter event towards the end of next week. This is Mississippi, isn't it? And were in a La Ni?a winter which is supposed to be warmer and drier conditions for the South.

There will be no more than .25" of ice in Desoto County. More significant accumulations to the north and west.

Monday-Monday night could get very interesting.

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog if you are still up check out that cell near McComb. That thing is hauling ass and has not weakened a bit .