Weather guys, SVD... NYE weather?

[SaintDawg]

Whats the scoop? Wx reports said worst along and south of I-20 but now have the area extended up to Greenwood into the night. Are we looking at a possible severe outbreak?

[starkvegasdawg]

Was just coming to post something.

The evening and night of NYE is starting to look more volatile and with the extent being pushed further north. First...what we know:

This is a storm system that has wind shear in abundance. 0-1km storm relative helicity is now forecast to be 400+. All you need for tornadoes is typically 100+. The storm will have a negative tilt which also causes low level winds to favor rotating storms. The big question is how much CAPE, or instability, will there be and will we have discrete cells or a squall line. As of now, CAPE values look to be in the 500-1,000 range which, for this time of year, is plenty. The question is how far north will the instability get before the front moves through. Models are indicating a slowing system which is not good.

What does this mean? If you have plans for NYE have some way to get weather alerts. As of right now we are just under a slight risk by the SPC, but I've seen some chatter on twitter that could be raised. I would not be surprised to see it up to an enhanced risk for at least part of MS with the next update.

Some notable chasers are calling for a potential tornado outbreak. I'm not saying that...yet. If, and this is a big if, everything comes together perfectly then this might be an interesting night on 12/31. But there's still a lot of questions to be answered. As of right now it does look like severe storms will be likely NYE night. How many or how strong is still to be determined.

[Cooterpoot]

2020 going out kicking and screaming.

[parabrave]

Was just coming to post something.

The evening and night of NYE is starting to look more volatile and with the extent being pushed further north. First...what we know:

This is a storm system that has wind shear in abundance. 0-1km storm relative helicity is now forecast to be 400+. All you need for tornadoes is typically 100+. The storm will have a negative tilt which also causes low level winds to favor rotating storms. The big question is how much CAPE, or instability, will there be and will we have discrete cells or a squall line. As of now, CAPE values look to be in the 500-1,000 range which, for this time of year, is plenty. The question is how far north will the instability get before the front moves through. Models are indicating a slowing system which is not good.

What does this mean? If you have plans for NYE have some way to get weather alerts. As of right now we are just under a slight risk by the SPC, but I've seen some chatter on twitter that could be raised. I would not be surprised to see it up to an enhanced risk for at least part of MS with the next update.

Some notable chasers are calling for a potential tornado outbreak. I'm not saying that...yet. If, and this is a big if, everything comes together perfectly then this might be an interesting night on 12/31. But there's still a lot of questions to be answered. As of right now it does look like severe storms will be likely NYE night. How many or how strong is still to be determined.

Sounds like Commence MJoliener and Downward dog better hunker down because they have been tornado magnets lately.

[TNDawg35]

How is it looking around Memphis? Also, seen some reports of 4 inches of rain?

[Commercecomet24]

Sounds like Commence MJoliener and Downward dog better hunker down because they have been tornado magnets lately.

I was hoping we might get out of this year without any further excitement but it doesn't look like it. 2020 can kiss my behind!

[starkvegasdawg]

How is it looking around Memphis? Also, seen some reports of 4 inches of rain?

As of right now Memphis is not in the bullseye for severe weather. I haven't really looked at precip totals so I can't speak for 4" of rain but 1-2" would not surprise me at all. Going to depend on the track and speed of the low.

[Mjoelner34]

Sounds like Commence MJoliener and Downward dog better hunker down because they have been tornado magnets lately.

I'm back in Starkville now. I was just back in Mount Olive for Christmas. I would go out with Vegas Thursday but I'll be visiting the girlfriend in that town up north.

[starkvegasdawg]

I just got through looking at the latest runs of medium range models and I'm not impressed. If they continue to trend in the direction of these latest runs the tornado threat should be primarily confined to southern LA and MS south of I-20 and west of I-55. After that storms look to transition to a more linear mode and possibly weakening. The question is will this be the trend or is it a one off run. Should have a slightly better answer in the early morning hours.

[DownwardDawg]

I was hoping we might get out of this year without any further excitement but it doesn't look like it. 2020 can kiss my behind!

I'm with ya brother. Staying home from hunting today to get stuff ready. Vehicles all in garages, lawn furniture put away, etc....
Bring it on 2020!!!!!! (Wait.....I was just kidding)

[Jack Lambert]

Was just coming to post something.

The evening and night of NYE is starting to look more volatile and with the extent being pushed further north. First...what we know:

This is a storm system that has wind shear in abundance. 0-1km storm relative helicity is now forecast to be 400+. All you need for tornadoes is typically 100+. The storm will have a negative tilt which also causes low level winds to favor rotating storms. The big question is how much CAPE, or instability, will there be and will we have discrete cells or a squall line. As of now, CAPE values look to be in the 500-1,000 range which, for this time of year, is plenty. The question is how far north will the instability get before the front moves through. Models are indicating a slowing system which is not good.

What does this mean? If you have plans for NYE have some way to get weather alerts. As of right now we are just under a slight risk by the SPC, but I've seen some chatter on twitter that could be raised. I would not be surprised to see it up to an enhanced risk for at least part of MS with the next update.

Some notable chasers are calling for a potential tornado outbreak. I'm not saying that...yet. If, and this is a big if, everything comes together perfectly then this might be an interesting night on 12/31. But there's still a lot of questions to be answered. As of right now it does look like severe storms will be likely NYE night. How many or how strong is still to be determined.

I know exactly what you talking about.*********

[Cooterpoot]

My place up in Covington Co. has just missed every damn tornado this year. I'm staying down south for this one. Hunting is crap when you're fighting skeeters anyway.

[DownwardDawg]

My place up in Covington Co. has just missed every damn tornado this year. I'm staying down south for this one. Hunting is crap when you're fighting skeeters anyway.

Where is your place? I probably pass it all the time.

[starkvegasdawg]

The SPC has upgraded to an enhanced threat for extreme southwest MS. Everything else is pretty much the same.

[Mjoelner34]

Where is your place? I probably pass it all the time.

Not Cooter but my uncle who passed away last year owned that farm on the on the right just north of Mapp's. Remember the train derailment with chlorine back in the mid 80's that caused an evacuation? That was on the backside of his property. I think he had a sign up. Roberts' Farm.

[DownwardDawg]

Not Cooter but my uncle who passed away last year owned that farm on the on the right just north of Mapp's. Remember the train derailment with chlorine back in the mid 80's that caused an evacuation? That was on the backside of his property. I think he had a sign up. Roberts' Farm.

I know exactly where you're talking about. "The farm may not be Heaven........"

[Cooterpoot]

Where is your place? I probably pass it all the time.

North part of Salem School Rd

[DownwardDawg]

Gotcha.