Numbers

[Walkerhill]

Several posters have suggested we will be short of a full roster next fall (possibly sourcing Rose Bowl?).

First question, is our ceiling 85 or 83? Our reductions were for 2 years starting last year so we are back to 85 next year,correct?

Second, why would it be difficult to get to 83 or 85? We can bring all the current players back because no one loses eligibility, so we will probably lose 2-4 like Murphy, Errol Thompson, KJ Costello, and maybe Marquiss Spencer who have nfl prospects or are ready to move on.

So we have like 55-60 right now including players still in the program but in tracing/quarantine or injured. Someone in here has the exact number I am sure. If we start with 60 and then lose 5 to transfer, NFL, etc. then we have 55. So a 25 man class brings you to 80 and 5 grad transfers take you to 85.

Am I reading this wrong?

[Quaoarsking]

I believe the grad transfers count in the 25, but aside from that, we should be close to 80 next year and back at the max by 2022. And that's assuming the NCAA doesn't give a waiver considering how depleted lots of rosters are.

[Todd4State]

I think there are some players that may have left that we don't know about. MSU is taking the high road with that- as they should.

That's probably what is throwing your numbers off.

Also- I think most people appear to be speculating that most of our seniors are going to leave after this year so I think we will lose more than 2-4 guys. Eiland is a NFL prospect as is Parker. Kobe Jones is too. Payton and Sharp could stay or go.

We really won't know until MSU confirms who is still on the team and who isn't. And FWIW we don't know who is really leaving among the seniors so it's kind of up in the air.

[Todd4State]

I believe the grad transfers count in the 25, but aside from that, we should be close to 80 next year and back at the max by 2022. And that's assuming the NCAA doesn't give a waiver considering how depleted lots of rosters are.

Grad transfers count against the 25. Correct. I agree with you- I think we will be in the high 70's unless more seniors come back than anticipated. We'll give some scholarships to walk-ons I'm sure.

I really don't think we're going to go crazy on the grad transfer market. Safety- yes. DE- depends on what we get on the market vs maybe a JUCO guy. I don't know if we'll have room or not but I wouldn't mind us picking up a grad transfer RB and slot receiver. The good news is Rogers has emerged enough we don't have to go the grad transfer route for that spot. I think they want two HS running backs and that may be enough to boost that position. And we have some really good receiver recruits that may contribute right away in the rotation.

[Walkerhill]

Grad transfers count against the 25. Correct. I agree with you- I think we will be in the high 70's unless more seniors come back than anticipated. We'll give some scholarships to walk-ons I'm sure.

I really don't think we're going to go crazy on the grad transfer market. Safety- yes. DE- depends on what we get on the market vs maybe a JUCO guy. I don't know if we'll have room or not but I wouldn't mind us picking up a grad transfer RB and slot receiver. The good news is Rogers has emerged enough we don't have to go the grad transfer route for that spot. I think they want two HS running backs and that may be enough to boost that position. And we have some really good receiver recruits that may contribute right away in the rotation.

Well, that explains it. I knew the oversigning, gray shirting, and processing practices were affected, but I did not realize transfers were impacted.

In the long run, this set of rules really benefits a school like State by leveling the field a little bit and eliminating the stockpiling and culling practices at the blue bloods. But ... it makes a heavy player turnover like we have seen very difficult to handle.

[Walkerhill]

An NFL prospect that is not projected in the first 3-4 rounds should really consider returning. The mock drafts have anywhere from zero to a handful in that category. Hopefully these dudes are making good long term decisions. Jumping a year early and ending up with zero return is a very poor comparison to a master’s degree and improved NFL prospects.

Not a single name on that list benefits from jumping now IMO except possibly Errol or Marquiss as round 3/4 type guys to NFL and Costello to a new destination.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I think we probably see 8-10 more departures by the end of spring practice next year between transfers and graduations. I think we'll be in the 70s next year in terms of numbers and maybe back at the max in 2022.

[Johnson85]

An NFL prospect that is not projected in the first 3-4 rounds should really consider returning. The mock drafts have anywhere from zero to a handful in that category. Hopefully these dudes are making good long term decisions. Jumping a year early and ending up with zero return is a very poor comparison to a master’s degree and improved NFL prospects.

Not a single name on that list benefits from jumping now IMO except possibly Errol or Marquiss as round 3/4 type guys to NFL and Costello to a new destination.

There's something to be said for taking your shot and getting on with your life, ala Beniques Brown. I'd tell people to get a masters and enjoy being big man on campus, and then take your shot when you're out of eligibility, but I understand wanting to either make it or not. In hindsight, it seems pretty obvious that one year isn't that big of a deal, but I didn't think that when I was 22. And since most careers are really short anyway, I get thinking they don't want to "waste" one of those years as a 23 year old college player.

[Johnson85]

I believe the grad transfers count in the 25, but aside from that, we should be close to 80 next year and back at the max by 2022. And that's assuming the NCAA doesn't give a waiver considering how depleted lots of rosters are.

I would think there's a decent chance this will happen. It's not just that some schools will need it; there are going to be a lot of upper classmen transfers that end up without a landing spot when scholarships would be available but for the 25 man signing limit.

Only reason it might not is that the blue bloods won't need it and they might not want schools to be able to restock.

[Walkerhill]

I would think there's a decent chance this will happen. It's not just that some schools will need it; there are going to be a lot of upper classmen transfers that end up without a landing spot when scholarships would be available but for the 25 man signing limit.

Only reason it might not is that the blue bloods won't need it and they might not want schools to be able to restock.

This is a good point - there are some schools that will have a backlog numbers problem because they will want to have a full 25 player class and also have some upper class men with extra eligibility whereas other schools have our problem of shortages due to turnover.

I think the blue bloods will be highly in favor. They will want to pull in a full 25 even if that means culling the current roster.

Hopefully something works out - the prospect of being 10 scholarships short or whatever it works out to be is a pretty big deal. You would not really be able to get a good read on the Leach era until perhaps 2022 or even 2023.

[Johnson85]

This is a good point - there are some schools that will have a backlog numbers problem because they will want to have a full 25 player class and also have some upper class men with extra eligibility whereas other schools have our problem of shortages due to turnover.

I think the blue bloods will be highly in favor. They will want to pull in a full 25 even if that means culling the current roster.

Hopefully something works out - the prospect of being 10 scholarships short or whatever it works out to be is a pretty big deal. You would not really be able to get a good read on the Leach era until perhaps 2022 or even 2023.

Not only that, it will make it painful for us to use transfers to fill in gaps because we really need to use our 25 to sign players with more than 1 or 2 years of eligibility. So we'll be in a position where we get hit harder by transfers than most and that will be compounded by the transfers making it more painful for us to use the transfer market to replace them.

The thing that is going to be interesting is that if there is no relief, Kiffin is setting Ole Miss up to have some awful numbers problems. Unless he limits himself to transfers that mostly have 3 years of eligibility left, it's going to be like he signed 10 JUCO players in a class, or maybe worse, depending on how much eligibility most of his transfers have left.

[MafiaDawg]

I think there are some players that may have left that we don't know about. MSU is taking the high road with that- as they should.

That's probably what is throwing your numbers off.

Also- I think most people appear to be speculating that most of our seniors are going to leave after this year so I think we will lose more than 2-4 guys. Eiland is a NFL prospect as is Parker. Kobe Jones is too. Payton and Sharp could stay or go.

We really won't know until MSU confirms who is still on the team and who isn't. And FWIW we don't know who is really leaving among the seniors so it's kind of up in the air.

Man that is a lot of NFL talent for a 2/3 win team. With all due respect, none of those guys are NFL players. Where are they going to go?

[MafiaDawg]

I agree with the original numbers question. There is not one player who played Saturday that will get drafted this year. You can put Murphy in that group too.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I agree with the original numbers question. There is not one player who played Saturday that will get drafted this year. You can put Murphy in that group too.

Ehh...Parker and Eiland both could get drafted. Parker has actually played decent this year and has some good film over the last year or so. Eiland probably will be someone a team takes a flier on solely on his measurables. Same might could be said for Osirus Mitchell.

[Todd4State]

Man that is a lot of NFL talent for a 2/3 win team. With all due respect, none of those guys are NFL players. Where are they going to go?

I agree. I don't think they'll all get drafted but at worst they could get shots as free agents.

[Leeshouldveflanked]

3 years until we have close to 85 legit scholarships on roster. That is if we don?t have many misses on signees. There will be some walkons that get scholarships to help the number... transfers count against the signing numbers. We are in a lot worse shape from a numbers standpoint than Ole Miss was during their probation.

[Homedawg]

Ehh...Parker and Eiland both could get drafted. Parker has actually played decent this year and has some good film over the last year or so. Eiland probably will be someone a team takes a flier on solely on his measurables. Same might could be said for Osirus Mitchell.

Neither Parker or eiland are going to get drafted.

[HoopsDawg]

Neither Parker or eiland are going to get drafted.

Probably not, but they aren't coming back either. Well Parker isn't. I don't know about Eiland.

[MafiaDawg]

I guess if you have graduated and are ready to move on with life I can understand that point of view. I have to remind myself that a lot of these guys don?t actually like football. It is just a means to an education. But I also can not fathom turning down free graduate school and another year in college on someone else?s dime

[Jack Lambert]

I will suspect the NCAA will change the rule on the number you can sign. Just for this year.

[Dawgfan77]

3 years until we have close to 85 legit scholarships on roster. That is if we don?t have many misses on signees. There will be some walkons that get scholarships to help the number... transfers count against the signing numbers. We are in a lot worse shape from a numbers standpoint than Ole Miss was during their probation.

This right here. All these moral victory folks arnt paying much attention to this. We are about to have sever sanction level roster...

[Cowbell]

If the NCAA is gonna allow players to opt out and or transfer, they are gonna have to allow you to replace those players. Rules are gonna have to change.

[Cooterpoot]

Neither Parker or eiland are going to get drafted.

I believe Eiland will. Not sure about Parker. NFL likes Eiland at G. And he's been good for us there.

[LC Dawg]

Seems like a good year to really explore JUCOs since their sophomores will have 3 years of eligibility left. I'm not sure if our numbers lend themselves to this being a good idea but someone will get some good proven players with 3 years left.

[Dawgfan77]

Imagine starting 2021 with only 68-70 players. Awesome!!!

[Johnson85]

If the NCAA is gonna allow players to opt out and or transfer, they are gonna have to allow you to replace those players. Rules are gonna have to change.

I think they will in the short term, but they really don't have to. Players have gone crazy with transferring right now, but if the 25 signee limit isn't changed, a lot of transfers will start finding out that their choices are limited if they want a scholarship. I think that will actually be a good balance. Players can transfer if they're good enough. If they are transferring because they don't like the discipline or for playing time, they'll either have to move down a "level" (whether that be strong P5 program to weak P5 program or P5 program to G5) or they'll have to pay for school for a year until they can be put on scholarship without counting against the 25.

[Johnson85]

This right here. All these moral victory folks arnt paying much attention to this. We are about to have sever sanction level roster...

We're not about to have a roster that looks like we've had severe sanctions, we already do. It looks like we are going to be able to manage ok because we have some young players really stepping up and Arnett seems to be able to make an only slightly shitty tasting chicken salad sandwich out of chicken shit.

The other thing that makes this different than a roster resulting from sanctions is that it's generally hard to get recruits to come to schools under severe sanctions, so you don't just lose the scholarships, you get lower quality players with the scholarships you do have.

[BrunswickDawg]

I had a little free time and went thru the current roster on hailstate.com . Other than Powers Warren, it seems to be pretty accurate and "official" in terms of opt outs and portal players.

I'm not sure the numbers are as bad as most people think. Don't conflate "49 scholarship players available" with how many actual scholarship players we have.

By my count, we could have as many as 60 scholarship players returning. That's how many "signed" players are still on our roster who are RS Juniors or younger when compared to info on 247. That could move up or down depending upon how many K/P we have on scholarship and some unknown walk-ons like Londyn Craft who may now be on scholarship. Then we have two opt-out "unknowns" in Murphy and Tyler Williams - who by all accounts are likely gone, but are still on roster. We have 9 players in the portal, and an additional opt out in Hill. In a normal year, the 12 transfers/opt outs would be a huge issue because we would also be losing 20-30 upperclassmen. We only had 18 scholarship SR entering the season - so losing 10 more players isn't that out of whack (Hill and Walker were gone regardless as SRs).

I also count 9 players who are SR who probably wont have NFL as an option and could return (Payton, Mitchell, Korey Charles, CJ Morgan, Fred Peters, Kobe Jones, Sharp, Lashley, & Dontea Jones). They are not included in the 60 above.

Obviously this doesn't account for any more possible transfers. But, I'm not really understanding the freak out over our numbers - unless I'm missing something huge or we anticipate signing a small class.

Am I off base somewhere?

[StarkVegasSteve]

We're not about to have a roster that looks like we've had severe sanctions, we already do. It looks like we are going to be able to manage ok because we have some young players really stepping up and Arnett seems to be able to make an only slightly shitty tasting chicken salad sandwich out of chicken shit.

The other thing that makes this different than a roster resulting from sanctions is that it's generally hard to get recruits to come to schools under severe sanctions, so you don't just lose the scholarships, you get lower quality players with the scholarships you do have.

The fact that Arnett isn't up for every coordinator of the year award is astounding really. I mean I know our D has dropped off a bit the second half of the season, but I mean look at the secondary this guy has to put out there every week. Emerson is good and Forbes will be good, but Craft is a walk on, Guidry is...…..well Guidry doesn't need to be playing football at this level is probably the nicest way I can put it. Preston plays extremely hard and tackles very well, but he's playing out of position. He really only needs to be a situational SS. Add all that onto the fact that we have almost no d line and have been gutted at the Sam LB position for the last two weeks. It's amazing we don't give up 50 a ballgame. It really is.

[MafiaDawg]

I had a little free time and went thru the current roster on hailstate.com . Other than Powers Warren, it seems to be pretty accurate and "official" in terms of opt outs and portal players.

I'm not sure the numbers are as bad as most people think. Don't conflate "49 scholarship players available" with how many actual scholarship players we have.

By my count, we could have as many as 60 scholarship players returning. That's how many "signed" players are still on our roster who are RS Juniors or younger when compared to info on 247. That could move up or down depending upon how many K/P we have on scholarship and some unknown walk-ons like Londyn Craft who may now be on scholarship. Then we have two opt-out "unknowns" in Murphy and Tyler Williams - who by all accounts are likely gone, but are still on roster. We have 9 players in the portal, and an additional opt out in Hill. In a normal year, the 12 transfers/opt outs would be a huge issue because we would also be losing 20-30 upperclassmen. We only had 18 scholarship SR entering the season - so losing 10 more players isn't that out of whack (Hill and Walker were gone regardless as SRs).

I also count 9 players who are SR who probably wont have NFL as an option and could return (Payton, Mitchell, Korey Charles, CJ Morgan, Fred Peters, Kobe Jones, Sharp, Lashley, & Dontea Jones). They are not included in the 60 above.

Obviously this doesn't account for any more possible transfers. But, I'm not really understanding the freak out over our numbers - unless I'm missing something huge or we anticipate signing a small class.

Am I off base somewhere?

I don?t think you are off base. Also, the notion that you need to be at a full 85 to compete is absolutely ridiculous. I think as long as you are in the 70s it?s an even enough playing field.

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

I had a little free time and went thru the current roster on hailstate.com . Other than Powers Warren, it seems to be pretty accurate and "official" in terms of opt outs and portal players.

I'm not sure the numbers are as bad as most people think. Don't conflate "49 scholarship players available" with how many actual scholarship players we have.

By my count, we could have as many as 60 scholarship players returning. That's how many "signed" players are still on our roster who are RS Juniors or younger when compared to info on 247. That could move up or down depending upon how many K/P we have on scholarship and some unknown walk-ons like Londyn Craft who may now be on scholarship. Then we have two opt-out "unknowns" in Murphy and Tyler Williams - who by all accounts are likely gone, but are still on roster. We have 9 players in the portal, and an additional opt out in Hill. In a normal year, the 12 transfers/opt outs would be a huge issue because we would also be losing 20-30 upperclassmen. We only had 18 scholarship SR entering the season - so losing 10 more players isn't that out of whack (Hill and Walker were gone regardless as SRs).

I also count 9 players who are SR who probably wont have NFL as an option and could return (Payton, Mitchell, Korey Charles, CJ Morgan, Fred Peters, Kobe Jones, Sharp, Lashley, & Dontea Jones). They are not included in the 60 above.

Obviously this doesn't account for any more possible transfers. But, I'm not really understanding the freak out over our numbers - unless I'm missing something huge or we anticipate signing a small class.

Am I off base somewhere?

CJ Morgan and Peters have already said they are coming back. Eiland and Parker have been "encouraged" to come back by the coaches. The choice is theirs. Murphy and Williams TBD.

I'm thinking we'll have to process a few more to get down to 85 if my math is correct. Correct me if I'm wrong.

With this year not counting on eligibility, going into next year, here is what you could have on the team not figuring any more defections next spring, etc. I did not count Erroll Thompson, Marquiss Spencer, Kobe Jones or KJ Costello. By all accounts they are gone no matter what.

So it could break down like this:

We can sign 26 this Dec. and Feb.
19-20 +/- True Freshmen that we sign this year
5-6 +/- Juco's that we sign this year
1-2 +/- Grad Transfers that we sign this year
24 +/- Redshirt Freshmen that are true and RS Freshmen on this years team
21 +/- Soph. who are on this years team
14 +/- Jr's who are on this years team
10 +/- Sr's who are on this years team (I'd be surprised if this number is over 4-5 that come back)

So that's 94 players that are currently on scholarship and new scholarship players to be signed in Dec. and Feb. Keep in mind the NCAA will NOT count Sr's who opt to come back next year just like they are doing for baseball this upcoming season. So we don't have to worry about counting the Sr's in the numbers. Even if all 10 come back and you take 10 off of the 94, that leaves you with 84. I THINK we will still have to get to 83 because of NCAA sanctions.

Remember also the juco's we sign this year will have 3, and in one case, 4 years to play. Next years class (2022) will be the year we either sign fewer or process some to get to the 85 unless the NCAA changes the number you can have on scholly again for that year. I don't see how they don't to help teams get their numbers back in line.

SIGNEES FOR 2021 (26)

FR (24)
QB WILL ROGERS FR
RB JO'QUAVIOUS MARKS FR
RB DILLON JOHNSON FR
WR JADEN WALLEY FR
WR LIDEATRICK GRIFFIN FR
WR RUFUS HARVEY FR
WR QUINTON TORBOR RFR
WR KYZIAH PRUITT RFR
OL CALVIN McMILLIAN FR
OL GRANT JACKSON FR
OL CHARLES CROSS RFR
OL BRANDON CUNNINGHAM RFR
DT ARMONDOUS COOLEY FR
DE JEVON BANKS FR
DE KING ANI IZUCHUKWU RFR
DE DE'MONTE RUSSELL RFR
LB RODNEY GROCE FR
LB JACK HARRIS RFR
CB EMMANUEL FORBES FR
CB DECAMERION RICHARDSON FR
CB CAMERON THREATT FR
S JANARI DEAN FR
S JAVEIOUS PURVIS RFR
ATH DYLAN LAWRENCE RFR

SO (21)
RB LEE WITHERSPOON
WR GEOR'QUARIUS SPIVEY
WR CAMERON GARDNER
WR BRAD CUMBEST
OT KAMERON JONES
OT DOLLA BILL JOHNSON
OL REED BUYS
C COLE SMITH
DT NATHAN PICKERING
DT DEVON ROBINSON
DT CAMERON YOUNG
DT ALLEN LOVE
DE JADEN CRUMEDY
LB NATHANIAL WATSON
LB JETT JOHNSON
CB COLLIN DUNCAN
CB JAYLON REED
CB ESAIAS FURDGE
S MARTIN EMERSON
S AARON BRULE
S SHAWN PRESTON

JR (14)
WR AUSTIN WILLIAMS
WR MALIK HEATH
WR CALEB DUCKING
OL JAMES JACKSON
OT CORDAVIAN SUGGS
DE JORDAN DAVIS
DE AARON ODOM
LB TYRUS WHEAT
CB TYLER WILLIAMS
S KYLE CASS
S LANDON GUIDRY
S MARCUS MURPHY
PK BRANDON RUIZ
P TUCKER DAY

SR (10)
WR JAVONTA PAYTON
WR OSIRUS MITCHELL
WR DONTAE JONES
OL GREG EILAND
OL DAREUAN PARKER
OL LAQUINSTON SHARP
OL SCOTT LASHLEY
CB KOREY CHARLES
S CJ MORGAN
S FRED PETERS


One thing I do see is that we are going to have a ton of YOUNG talent on the roster the next couple of years getting a whole lot of experience for the future. By the numbers above you'll have 71 Freshmen and Soph. on the team next year not counting any that will leave between now and then. How anyone doesn't get excited reading the names of the Freshmen and Sophomore's on this team is beyond me.

[BrunswickDawg]

I'm not going to quote your thread - but that is great work Lumpy. It lines up pretty well with what I was counting.
I bet we may lose another 4-5 players from within that list, but if any of the SRs come back that is offset easily.

[MafiaDawg]

Good post lumpy. Has anyone seen any draft grades on Spencer, Thompson, and Kobe Jones? They are all decent to above average and none of them will measure out and combine very well. Since when do nfl teams draft decent to above average players off a below average team who do not test well? someone please explain it to me. Im trying to understand.

[Johnson85]

Good post lumpy. Has anyone seen any draft grades on Spencer, Thompson, and Kobe Jones? They are all decent to above average and none of them will measure out and combine very well. Since when do nfl teams draft decent to above average players off a below average team who do not test well? someone please explain it to me. Im trying to understand.

I don't think anybody is expecting them to leave because they will get a good draft grade. I would hope they could be convinced to stick around but sometimes people just want to take their shot.

[Cowbell]

This is a really good educational informative thread. Thanks to all the contributors - I personally really appreciate it.