BeastMan
11-27-2020, 11:09 AM
Ole Miss has a historically bad defense so I think MSU moves the ball and scores some points. The key to the game is defense and unfortunately that?s where MSU is razor thin. Let?s take a look at a few statistical keys I found.
Matt Corral has been on fire this year. There have only been 2 games where he struggled this year, Arkansas and Auburn. In those games he had 3 TDs to 8 INTs. When you look at Matt?s splits it?s hard to decipher where to attack because he?s been so good in most aspects. Where Matt does the worst is when he?s pressing. 3rd and Long is typically where you see that exhibited but not with Matt. You see his worst splits when OM is down by more than 1 score and also just the 4th quarter in general. Another interesting thing worth noting is in Matt?s worst 2 games, and the Bama game where he was good, are games where Lane Kiffin ran the ball the most they have all year. I think that is by design. I think Kiffin wanted to protect Matt vs Bama and then when he was struggling he was trying to help him out with extra run calls. What that tells us is the whole game with Matt sits behind his ears and Kiffin knows it.
To beat OM, MSU has to play its best defensive game of the year. If I?m MSU I try to get the ball first and get on the board first. Raise his blood pressure. Hold the ball through efficiency like the UGA game and keep his opportunities limited so he feels more pressure when he does have the ball. If OM is running the ball a lot that is a good sign that Kiffin doesn?t trust Matt. I?m really interested to see how state attacks this offense because all their playmakers are on the inside: Ealy, KE, and Moore. I think we?ll see some zone blitzes where we drop guys in to ?hot? read routes to force some quick mistakes. Forcing some early mistakes/turnovers and getting a lead is crucial to him losing control between his ears.
I certainly think OM has the upper hand going in to the game but let?s not pretend stranger things haven?t happened. If State?s front 7 dominates, they could force Matt Corral in to his 3rd bad game this year.
Matt Corral has been on fire this year. There have only been 2 games where he struggled this year, Arkansas and Auburn. In those games he had 3 TDs to 8 INTs. When you look at Matt?s splits it?s hard to decipher where to attack because he?s been so good in most aspects. Where Matt does the worst is when he?s pressing. 3rd and Long is typically where you see that exhibited but not with Matt. You see his worst splits when OM is down by more than 1 score and also just the 4th quarter in general. Another interesting thing worth noting is in Matt?s worst 2 games, and the Bama game where he was good, are games where Lane Kiffin ran the ball the most they have all year. I think that is by design. I think Kiffin wanted to protect Matt vs Bama and then when he was struggling he was trying to help him out with extra run calls. What that tells us is the whole game with Matt sits behind his ears and Kiffin knows it.
To beat OM, MSU has to play its best defensive game of the year. If I?m MSU I try to get the ball first and get on the board first. Raise his blood pressure. Hold the ball through efficiency like the UGA game and keep his opportunities limited so he feels more pressure when he does have the ball. If OM is running the ball a lot that is a good sign that Kiffin doesn?t trust Matt. I?m really interested to see how state attacks this offense because all their playmakers are on the inside: Ealy, KE, and Moore. I think we?ll see some zone blitzes where we drop guys in to ?hot? read routes to force some quick mistakes. Forcing some early mistakes/turnovers and getting a lead is crucial to him losing control between his ears.
I certainly think OM has the upper hand going in to the game but let?s not pretend stranger things haven?t happened. If State?s front 7 dominates, they could force Matt Corral in to his 3rd bad game this year.