The Unsustainable Part of Ole Miss' Offense

[ShotgunDawg]

There's no doubt that Kiffin's offense is rolling & Corral looks like the a future high round draft pick after 2021. However, if you're looking for where things could so sideways with their offense, I think this is where you have to look. It also speaks to the incredibly high level that Corral is playing at.

Ole Miss was 4-4 on 4th down conversions vs South Carolina. Is that a sustainable thing?

Throw out the triple option teams that are constantly in 4th & 1 & Ole Miss is converting 4th downs at an absolute unheard of level.

https://i.imgur.com/nHeweyq.jpg

[HancockCountyDog]

At this point, Kiffin has shown me and I think most rational football fans that he can score points no matter what you give him.

Arguing that his success is because they attempt a bunch of 4th downs is just silly. Lets remember - Corral barely played last year. He was about to transfer. There was a so called QB competition between him and Plumlee (How in the world has he not transferred yet).

I think focusing on what they are doing is a waste of time, they will be able to score points for a while. We have to figure out a way to score some ourselves, because there is no dispute that we have a clear talent advantage on defense right now. That may not be the case in 2-3 years.

If we can score the ball - the egg bowl will be a lot closer than people think. The problem is that we have to figure out how to score.

[Jack Lambert]

SC defense was decimated going into the game. Then they had guys go out during the game. I am pretty sure that was some of the issue.

[ShotgunDawg]

At this point, Kiffin has shown me and I think most rational football fans that he can score points no matter what you give him.

Arguing that his success is because they attempt a bunch of 4th downs is just silly. Lets remember - Corral barely played last year. He was about to transfer. There was a so called QB competition between him and Plumlee (How in the world has he not transferred yet).

I think focusing on what they are doing is a waste of time, they will be able to score points for a while. We have to figure out a way to score some ourselves, because there is no dispute that we have a clear talent advantage on defense right now. That may not be the case in 2-3 years.

If we can score the ball - the egg bowl will be a lot closer than people think. The problem is that we have to figure out how to score.

I'm not saying Kiffin isn't a hell of an offensive coach. I'm just saying that I'd be on regression from where they are now, not them getting better on offense.

They are performing well above the expected on 4th down & that is keeping drives alive that likely should've ended.

[Jack Lambert]

At this point, Kiffin has shown me and I think most rational football fans that he can score points no matter what you give him.

Arguing that his success is because they attempt a bunch of 4th downs is just silly. Lets remember - Corral barely played last year. He was about to transfer. There was a so called QB competition between him and Plumlee (How in the world has he not transferred yet).

I think focusing on what they are doing is a waste of time, they will be able to score points for a while. We have to figure out a way to score some ourselves, because there is no dispute that we have a clear talent advantage on defense right now. That may not be the case in 2-3 years.

If we can score the ball - the egg bowl will be a lot closer than people think. The problem is that we have to figure out how to score.

I am way more worried about our offense against them. It might actually make their defense look decent. However I am not worried about defense. They are well coached, discipline and the defensive coaching staff is way above average. They will have a plan. Now they can't help the offensive turnovers. If Leach will line up and run at them we will score points and open up the passing game. I don't see that happening..

[ShotgunDawg]

SC defense was decimated going into the game. Then they had guys go out during the game. I am pretty sure that was some of the issue.

there were still 4 drives though here they performed well on the 1st three downs. I also want to say that many of those 4th down conversions were like 4th & 5+.

[ShotgunDawg]

I am way more worried about our offense against them. It might actually make their defense look decent. However I am not worried about defense. They are well coached, discipline and the defensive coaching staff is way above average. They will have a plan. Now they can't help the offensive turnovers.

This isn't about us vs them or the Egg Bowl. I'm just saying that there are some outliers in there offense that I'd guess aren't sustainable.

[msstate7]

Gun scared lol

[Jack Lambert]

This isn't about us vs them or the Egg Bowl. I'm just saying that there are some outliers in there offense that I'd guess aren't sustainable.

In less than two weeks it will be about the egg bowl. Unreal that the egg bowl will be the 8th game of the season and not the 12th.

[ShotgunDawg]

Gun scared lol

Yeah I am. We all should be.

I was just looking to see what could go wrong for them. Their 4th down conversion % is changing the games

[ZedFedder]

Yeah, we can seek to justify why their success won’t be sustained and on and on, but the truth is Kiffin is up there with Mullen, Sarkisian, Day, and others as one of the top offensive minds in football. As State fans we better hope that he can’t recruit the talent he has on the field now. Or that he leaves soon.

[Dawgology]

At this point I’m saying Kiffin is a superior coach to Leach. We got bamboozled. Again.

[ShotgunDawg]

At this point I’m saying Kiffin is a superior coach to Leach. We got bamboozled. Again.

Just curious, but why would you make that statement in a pandemic year when Leach's resume says he's the better coach?

Does any part of you think your statement is a little premature?

[Dawgology]

Just curious, but why would you make that statement in a pandemic year when Leach's resume says he's the better coach?

Does any part of you think your statement is a little premature?

I look at results in the field. They are really the only results that matter. History is the past.

ETA: everyone is dealing with the pandemic not just State. We put 200 yards up against Vanderbilt. Leach is toast in the SEC unless he adapts...which he won’t.

[ShotgunDawg]

I look at results in the field.

Yeah, but don't you think that's a pretty flawed process in a pandemic year with no Spring practice & vastly different offensive skill talent?

You may be right in the long run, but I just think anyone making this statement right now really isn't seeing the big picture.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Just curious, but why would you make that statement in a pandemic year when Leach's resume says he's the better coach?

Does any part of you think your statement is a little premature?

Not sure you could argue lane or leach is better, either way.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Yeah, but don't you think that's a pretty flawed process in a pandemic year with no Spring practice & vastly different offensive skill talent?

You may be right in the long run, but I just think anyone making this statement right now really isn't seeing the big picture.

No. He didnt have practices either

[ShotgunDawg]

No. He didnt have practices either

But he also didn't have near the transition we did from a scheme standpoint.

I'm not saying that you're wrong, I just think it's way too early to make this claim.

[HancockCountyDog]

But he also didn't have near the transition we did from a scheme standpoint.

I'm not saying that you're wrong, I just think it's way too early to make this claim.

They were running a pure option offense last year. It was basically the veer with Plumlee at QB.

They changed their offense completely.

[Irondawg]

Seems they have done a good job of putting in a one read offense that simplifies it for the players. Helps to have a guy look Moore that you can be confident nobody can cover.

Similar to the last couple of years with Bama receivers. You don’t have to coach the qb to look to see if he’s open - you just throw assuming he’s open. Meanwhile the 3-8 zone has totally messed with our qbs as they have no idea where to go with the ball half the time.

Against OM I’d run nothing but zone and try to disguise it as much as they could since they will hand it off or let Corral take off. I’d almost be fine for them running for 300 yards on us at 5 yards a clip than watching them throw for 500 on us. Maybe we pull a shocker but I am not looking forward this one

[ShotgunDawg]

They were running a pure option offense last year. It was basically the veer with Plumlee at QB.

They changed their offense completely.

But all the players they have were recruited under Longo. Their personnel is perfect for what they're running

[Leeshouldveflanked]

We have 5-7 years of being in the West basement ahead of us. Thats on Cohen.

[Todd4State]

If they keep recruiting in the 50's it will catch up to them sooner than later.

[Todd4State]

We have 5-7 years of being in the West basement ahead of us. Thats on Cohen.

And Stricklin too.

[msstate7]

If they keep recruiting in the 50's it will catch up to them sooner than later.

I agree with this. Lane has to step their recruiting or jump ship

[chef dixon]

They probably beat us this year. I think our D will do a decent job, but they are going to probably score at least 28. Not sure what this particular year tells of the future for either team to be honest, but they have to feel decent about at least their offense going forward.

[ShotgunDawg]

I agree with this. Lane has to step their recruiting or jump ship

I'm not sure he cheats at Ole Miss because I don't think he locked into staying there.

Much like Mullen at MSU, when good coaches aren't "all in" at a school, they play it clean & win enough to get out.

I think you've got to have a Freeze type that is "all in" to get a guy that will cheat.

[ShotgunDawg]

They probably beat us this year. I think our D will do a decent job, but they are going to probably score at least 28. Not sure what this particular year tells of the future for either team to be honest, but they have to feel decent about at least their offense going forward.

I'm going to base my opinion off what team shows better improvement next year after a full recruiting class & a Spring. I think that is much more indicative of each coach's real abilities.

[BrunswickDawg]

They were running a pure option offense last year. It was basically the veer with Plumlee at QB.

They changed their offense completely.

On the fly due to Coral getting hurt and Plumlee not being able to hit the broad side of a barn. That offense wasn't their plan - they threw it about 30 times a game before Corral was hurt. Saturday was the first OM game I'd watched this year, and their offense really hasn't changed very much since Hugh was hired - pass a good bit with some read option and some running.

[trojandawg]

Jesus some of you have such maroon colored glasses that you can?t watch football objectively.

[Johnson85]

I look at results in the field. They are really the only results that matter. History is the past.

ETA: everyone is dealing with the pandemic not just State. We put 200 yards up against Vanderbilt. Leach is toast in the SEC unless he adapts...which he won?t.

Why is everybody so certain Leach won't adapt? He's been successful everywhere he's been. The only team that consistently beat him had a massive talent advantage over him. I find it hard to believe that he's just going to give up rather than adapt if we don't show any improvement next year.

[msstate7]

Why is everybody so certain Leach won't adapt? He's been successful everywhere he's been. The only team that consistently beat him had a massive talent advantage over him. I find it hard to believe that he's just going to give up rather than adapt if we don't show any improvement next year.

Well we aren't, but jimmy lake saying he knew leach wouldn't adapt which made it easy to shut him down is pretty damning. I would love for leach to show he isn't that stubborn though

[HoopsDawg]

Jesus some of you have such maroon colored glasses that you can?t watch football objectively.

so true. It's crazy.

[Todd4State]

I agree with this. Lane has to step their recruiting or jump ship

It always catches up eventually. See our team now.

[bulldawg28]

Yeah I am. We all should be.

I was just looking to see what could go wrong for them. Their 4th down conversion % is changing the games

You shouldn't be scared if you've been paying attention you knew what was about to happen. It's going to be a blowout! Kiffin is about to stamp his name in Oxford.

[Dawgology]

They probably beat us this year. I think our D will do a decent job, but they are going to probably score at least 28. Not sure what this particular year tells of the future for either team to be honest, but they have to feel decent about at least their offense going forward.

They will probably double 28 points on us. Vandy about scored 28 against us.

[TNDawg35]

Here’s the thing. If Leach were to walk in the Egg bowl wk and tell The team, we are going to run the ball every play and run a read option or power run game, we beat Ole Miss. if we throw the ball 60 times, we will get torched. Plain and simple. Our weak spot is the secondary and we have to play clock management and hold the ball longer to keep
It out of their hands. Literally the same damn game plan since Mullen was here.

Ole Miss couldn’t stop USC and then Boom stopped running it and started passing it for
Some reason. They were averaging 8 ypc!

We have the team to breath them, but doubt we will. It will be up to Leach if this game means enough to flip the script for it or not. I doubt he cares, and we will throw the piss out of it...

[lastmajordog]

Gun I always appreciate and look forward to your post. But om usually play their best or have their best hit man game face on facing the DOGS. Their offense has serious playmakers. I truly hope the DOGS defense can make it semi close, but this team has me hoping for not an embarrassment.....

[chef dixon]

They will probably double 28 points on us. Vandy about scored 28 against us.

Maybe. But at no point this year has my take away been our defense is bad

[Jack Lambert]

They will probably double 28 points on us. Vandy about scored 28 against us.

And how many Defensive players did we have out due to Covid?

[CaptainObvious]

Ole Miss will play their beat defensive game of the year against State. And they will have their usual offensive game. Even so, after they go 4-4 after beating State, they will end up 4-6 assuming the other games are played and State will end up 3-7 assuming the other games are played. Not a lot difference except for the EGG Game Score.

[Cowbell]

Why is everybody so certain Leach won't adapt? He's been successful everywhere he's been. The only team that consistently beat him had a massive talent advantage over him. I find it hard to believe that he's just going to give up rather than adapt if we don't show any improvement next year.

If leach was willing to adapt, we wouldn't have had 200 yards of offense against Vanderbilt. Just dealing in facts here. So it's going to take a moment of epiphany at this point.

[BeardoMSU]

I have zero confidence in us not getting embarrassed in this game, tbh. Hope I'm wrong though. I see our D playing well to start, but since our O can't score or sustain drives, eventually it will lead to OM going in dry on us.

[Todd4State]

If leach was willing to adapt, we wouldn't have had 200 yards of offense against Vanderbilt. Just dealing in facts here. So it's going to take a moment of epiphany at this point.

How do you adapt when your entire offensive line is wiped out by COVID? I'd estimate that cost us at least one score against Vanderbilt. I felt pretty bad for Brandon Cunningham.

[Johnson85]

If leach was willing to adapt, we wouldn't have had 200 yards of offense against Vanderbilt. Just dealing in facts here. So it's going to take a moment of epiphany at this point.

Not changing your offense before you've even implemented it successfully is a little different from not changing your offense after you've had a full year with it and still can't execute.

Not saying Leach shouldn't have made some adjustments for this year, but believing this year is better spent trying to learn his offense the way it's been successful for the past 15 years is not the same thing as spending three years scoring 12 points a game while not trying to adjust.

[State82]

I have zero confidence in us not getting embarrassed in this game, tbh. Hope I'm wrong though. I see our D playing well to start, but since our O can't score or sustain drives, eventually it will lead to OM going in dry on us.

My thoughts exactly. It will not be pretty in any shape, form or fashion.

[Dannyripms]

Yall can down play them all day long but the truth remains, Kiffin has them headed in the right direction and they are gonna smoke us. I wish we had kiffin, i honestly believe the only loss we would have right now is alabama. Its a damn shame what we are doing to our team.

[Johnson85]

Yall can down play them all day long but the truth remains, Kiffin has them headed in the right direction and they are gonna smoke us. I wish we had kiffin, i honestly believe the only loss we would have right now is alabama. Its a damn shame what we are doing to our team.

Kiffen looks really good so far. No doubt about that. But isn't their recruiting looking awful right now? And supposedly Kiffen is going to try to bring in like 10 transfers? That seems to likely end up disastrous if they are going to count against the 25 man limit.

As long as he recruits at least well enough to replace his current players, which will allow him to continue to show that he can win if he gets the players, he is looking like a really good hire for them. And while everybody is talking about him leaving if he's successful, I'm not sure he's going to get one of the, what, maybe 10 or 12 jobs that are worth leaving MSU or Ole Miss for without showing some sustained success over at least a 3 or 4 year period, which is all you can really ask for.

[msstate7]

Kiffen looks really good so far. No doubt about that. But isn't their recruiting looking awful right now? And supposedly Kiffen is going to try to bring in like 10 transfers? That seems to likely end up disastrous if they are going to count against the 25 man limit.

As long as he recruits at least well enough to replace his current players, which will allow him to continue to show that he can win if he gets the players, he is looking like a really good hire for them. And while everybody is talking about him leaving if he's successful, I'm not sure he's going to get one of the, what, maybe 10 or 12 jobs that are worth leaving MSU or Ole Miss for without showing some sustained success over at least a 3 or 4 year period, which is all you can really ask for.

I think it may be a solid strategy this year taking on transfers since everyone gets another year (think that's right). You could get some really solid guys to add in key spots on offense and try to fix defense.

[Mobile Bay]

At this point I?m saying Kiffin is a superior coach to Leach. We got bamboozled. Again.

At this point I am saying you know nothing about football.

Kiffin will leave them in no better shape than Freeze did.

[BrunswickDawg]

I think it may be a solid strategy this year taking on transfers since everyone gets another year (think that's right). You could get some really solid guys to add in key spots on offense and try to fix defense.

This board is going to melt when he picks some of our guys who have left.

[msstate7]

This board is going to melt when he picks some of our guys who have left.

Man, we melting regardless

[Johnson85]

I think it may be a solid strategy this year taking on transfers since everyone gets another year (think that's right). You could get some really solid guys to add in key spots on offense and try to fix defense.

Yea, if he gets a lot of immediately eligible sophomores and juniors rather than seniors, those probably are more valuable than high school recruits as you presumably have a better idea of whether they will at least contribute something. I was thinking of grad transfers or people having to sit out a year, but I guess having to sit out a year isn't going to really impact people going forward.

[StarkVegasSteve]

We're going to get killed for the next 2-3 years if Kiffin stays. It's that simple. Maybe by year 4 we'll have enough of Leach's guys to outscore them.

[ShotgunDawg]

We're going to get killed for the next 2-3 years if Kiffin stays. It's that simple. Maybe by year 4 we'll have enough of Leach's guys to outscore them.

This is very short sighted & not reality.

The reality is Ole Miss is about to lose Moore & Yaboah, which will hurt & both Corral & Ealy will go pro after next season. That's most of their fire power & they aren't replacing it with anything close to that.

Secondly, our offense will already get better & our defense is already better than their by about the amount their offense is better than ours.

Complete overreaction to think this. My guess is by next season, it's a pretty close game.

[ShotgunDawg]

Gun I always appreciate and look forward to your post. But om usually play their best or have their best hit man game face on facing the DOGS. Their offense has serious playmakers. I truly hope the DOGS defense can make it semi close, but this team has me hoping for not an embarrassment.....

1. Sometimes they play well against us & sometimes they don't. They usually play about average and on average we've been better over the past decade as evidenced by our winning record against them.

2. I wasn't downing them. I was just pointing out that their non-triple option offense isn't likely to continue converting 4th downs at almost a 70% clip.