Yet...another...tropical system brewing

[starkvegasdawg]

So while you're finalizing plans of what Ole miss fan's house to roll this Halloween, another disturbance in the SW Caribbean is becoming organized and a tropical depression could form in the next 2-3 days. If it becomes a named system it will be Zeta and tie the 2005 record for most named systems in a year. While still early most models have it becoming a tropical storm and affecting FL in the next 4-6 days as it moves north.

[msbulldog]

Hasn't the Gulf cooled some?

[Mobile Bay]

Hasn't the Gulf cooled some?

Some, but not much. I checked today to see where it was at for the fall pompano run. Still high 70's in the northern gulf. Over 80 in Key West.

[basedog]

Cold front moving down and should keep this in check.

[ScoobaDawg]

Levi with a good evening update. various scenarios in play based on how quickly it gets organized (which it is doing so).
Quicker it is organized and stronger, the more likely it gets sucked up towards cuba quicker and then gets sucked over cuba by the trade winds to it's east. If that happens it will be off the coast of Florida when the high pressure builds in which would force it to cut across Florida potentially.
If the storm is weaker and drifts more to the west, it will be stuck between those previously mentioned trade winds to the east and the flow out of the north to it's west. ... If that happens there a few options of it getting pushed to Florida or going into the gulf and being pushed west by the developing high pressure over Florida.

Will be interesting to see what we learn by sunday morning.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJjq_dHzvfI

[starkvegasdawg]

The latest euro guidance

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElFUfGyW0AEX12a.jpg

[Commercecomet24]

HMON showing a track through the fort Walton/destin area as a cat 2-3. I know it's really early.

[RocketDawg]

The latest euro guidance

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElFUfGyW0AEX12a.jpg

What's the landfall timing? I haven't been keeping up with this one.

[Dawgbite]

What's the landfall timing? I haven't been keeping up with this one.

Showed something like 120-144 hours from now.

[starkvegasdawg]

Our little system is now a depression. It is expected to briefly reach hurricane status before weakening back to a tropical storm before making landfall midweek sometime. Right now target area looks to be somewhere between Baton Rouge and Biloxi but that can change as we all know. The good news is the constant parade of cold fronts will not allow this to sit and linger over the area. It's going to make landfall and keep right on trucking NE so that should help minimize flooding concerns.

[parabrave]

Our little system is now a depression. It is expected to briefly reach hurricane status before weakening back to a tropical storm before making landfall midweek sometime. Right now target area looks to be somewhere between Baton Rouge and Biloxi but that can change as we all know. The good news is the constant parade of cold fronts will not allow this to sit and linger over the area. It's going to make landfall and keep right on trucking NE so that should help minimize flooding concerns.
GFS has it as a mid TS hitting Grand Isle then shooting up to the ARKLATEX.

[starkvegasdawg]

We now officially have tropical storm Zeta which I believe ties the record for most named tropical systems in a year. We last had a Zeta on 12/30/05. 2020 version is forecast to make landfall Wednesday afternoon as a tropical storm. Hopefully, if I doesn't do what the last several have done and vastly over achieve forecast strength.

[parabrave]

Hey SVD you headed down here. Looks like the eye will come ashore here but all the heavy wind and surge will be near Florabama. Of course tomorrow will tell if they shift it further east

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey SVD you headed down here. Looks like the eye will come ashore here but all the heavy wind and surge will be near Florabama. Of course tomorrow will tell if they shift it further east

I don't think so. My son's birthday is Tuesday and I'm hoping to take off quite a bit around Christmas so I'm saving my days. Which of course means this'll end up a cat 3 with the perfect landfall trajectory to chase.

[Statecoachingblows**]

80 Mph cat 1...what say you fellas?

[parabrave]

80 Mph cat 1...what say you fellas?

It depends. The NHC Intensity has it hitting LA as a cat one then at the 63-65 hr timeframe as a TS. Some of the models have it as a 100 MPH up through Mississippi and Bama. Almost all of the wind field is off to the east because of the shear. Even with the center going up through New Orleans before getting picked up and heading NE Biloxi will be getting the worst winds.

[SilentSteel16]

For what it’s worth, we have begun evacuating a few of our rigs mainly in east. This makes the 4th evac this year. Ready for this season to be over

[viverlibre]

What website has the most accurate modeling data (at least for this year)?

[DownwardDawg]

For what it’s worth, we have begun evacuating a few of our rigs mainly in east. This makes the 4th evac this year. Ready for this season to be over

I'm sitting right in the middle of Mississippi Canyon. Riding another one out. It's been a great year! **

[99jc]

For what it’s worth, we have begun evacuating a few of our rigs mainly in east. This makes the 4th evac this year. Ready for this season to be over

Ready for this year to be over! Glad my wife hasn't left me. I just can't seem to get rested. Have to report back to duty Tuesday. Has anyone else been feeling depressed about this whole state of world affairs? Covid....BLM....Disasters...Government so 17'd up it really wont matter who is elected. I cant see any hope in 2021 hope i am wrong. Hail State!

[SilentSteel16]

Out there almost every day. We got to MC650 all the time. I guess it is a good thing because it keeps us flying but getting tired of demob and remob every other hitch

[SilentSteel16]

I agree has been a rough year, but for us oil guys if Biden wins could be the end of a career. Not getting political so that is all I am going to say. To close though 2020 is the gift that keeps on giving. At least we did beat LSU

[Bothrops]

I agree has been a rough year, but for us oil guys if Biden wins could be the end of a career. Not getting political so that is all I am going to say. To close though 2020 is the gift that keeps on giving. At least we did beat LSU

It's ok. The Harris/Biden ticket would suck like no other, this is universal.

[starkvegasdawg]

Zeta now a cat 1 with 80mph winds. Hurricane watches now up for LA/MS. Landfall looking late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning.

[parabrave]

Zeta now a cat 1 with 80mph winds. Hurricane watches now up for LA/MS. Landfall looking late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning.

Yeah they are now shifting it a little east. The intensity is all over the map but the wind field is way out to the east of the center.

[TimberBeast]

How confident are you guys that it doesn?t get above a cat 2?

[starkvegasdawg]

How confident are you guys that it doesn?t get above a cat 2?

This is 2020...not at all.

[parabrave]

How confident are you guys that it doesn?t get above a cat 2?

In Biloxi they are saying 4 FT surge, thank you 9lb baby Jesus and 60 - 70 MPH winds. The system will be hauling ass once it makes its turn. Hey Vdog I'll be at that casino I told you about and I'll shoot you some footage.

[TimberBeast]

In Biloxi they are saying 4 FT surge, thank you 9lb baby Jesus and 60 - 70 MPH winds. The system will be hauling ass once it makes its turn. Hey Vdog I'll be at that casino I told you about and I'll shoot you some footage.

It?s reminding me of Nate a couple years ago, hauling ass cat 1 with big surge.

[starkvegasdawg]

Now up to 80mph.

[TimberBeast]

Go East young man

[parabrave]

It?s reminding me of Nate a couple years ago, hauling ass cat 1 with big surge.

Don't think the surge will be a problem. Maybe get to the seawall.

[TimberBeast]

Don't think the surge will be a problem. Maybe get to the seawall.

I hope so

[parabrave]

I hope so

No Shi. I live on the south side of big Lake. 17 FT. Tired of having to go get bay debris out of my yard.

[TimberBeast]

No Shi. I live on the south side of big Lake. 17 FT. Tired of having to go get bay debris out of my yard.

I know what you mean. I was burning limbs last week that have fallen in our yard and washed up from the bayou. I thought we were finally done for the year.

[parabrave]

I know what you mean. I was burning limbs last week that have fallen in our yard and washed up from the bayou. I thought we were finally done for the year.

We get all the crap boaters throw overboard. Biggest pain in the ass picking up plastic beer bottles, discarded coolers and foam cushions.

[TimberBeast]

We get all the crap boaters throw overboard. Biggest pain in the ass picking up plastic beer bottles, discarded coolers and foam cushions.

Yeah I can imagine y?all get a lot of crap washed up.

Is the intensity still supposed to stay at around cat 1?

[starkvegasdawg]

Yeah I can imagine y?all get a lot of crap washed up.

Is the intensity still supposed to stay at around cat 1?

All indications are that it stays a 1.

[TimberBeast]

All indications are that it stays a 1.

Thanks Vegas I?m hoping it stays low.

[starkvegasdawg]

Now some indications it may make it to a 2.

[DownwardDawg]

Now some indications it may make it to a 2.

Yes. Platform starting to rock now. It might get interesting out here this afternoon!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Winds now up to 90mph.

[StateDawg44]

This may have been discussed already but where do they pull from now that the Greek alphabet is used up?

[Commercecomet24]

Yes. Platform starting to rock now. It might get interesting out here this afternoon!!

Stay safe!

[DownwardDawg]

Stay safe!

Thanks man! I think it's far enough to the west of us to keep the really bad stuff away. We're already experiencing some 50 mph gusts though.

[starkvegasdawg]

This may have been discussed already but where do they pull from now that the Greek alphabet is used up?

Greek alphabet still has several letters left. Omega is the last letter.

[Commercecomet24]

Greek alphabet still has several letters left. Omega is the last letter.

Let's hope we don't get to that point! Omega means the end lol.

[StateDawg44]

Greek alphabet still has several letters left. Omega is the last letter.

Ah. I guess I assumed Z is the end.

Derp

Let's hope we don't find out then.

[TimberBeast]

The damn thing is almost a cat 3

[Todd4State]

Ah. I guess I assumed Z is the end.

Derp

Let's hope we don't find out then.

^Was not in a frat at MSU**

[TUSK]

Do those in Pickens Co., AL need to tie down their trailer houses and whiskey stills???

asking for a friend.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

This may have been discussed already but where do they pull from now that the Greek alphabet is used up?

^^^^^^^^Apparently did not study engineering ^^^^^^

[starkvegasdawg]

Starting to see some areas of rotation in the outer bands getting close to coming on shore in MS. Those on the coast need to prepare for a possible tornado threat.

[RocketDawg]

Ah. I guess I assumed Z is the end.

Derp

Let's hope we don't find out then.

The next named store will be eta. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet

[RocketDawg]

Starting to see some areas of rotation in the outer bands getting close to coming on shore in MS. Those on the coast need to prepare for a possible tornado threat.

Vegas, just saw on TWC that your buddy ** Brett Adair is in Waveland, MS.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just had a confirmed tornado in Noxubee county.

[TimberBeast]

We had the top of a tree blow off in our yard already.

[TimberBeast]

Just lost power in Ocean Springs

[TimberBeast]

That was some crazy shit, winds are still howling. We have multiple trees down on our property. Surge finally going back out but we were about an inch or two from having the bayou in our house. I doubt we?ll have power anytime soon, still have water for now. Hope the rest of y?all on the Coast are doing ok.

[defiantdog]

^Was not in a frat at MSU**

Light and Hold that match upside down and recite the greek alphabet backwards..... Twice*****.

[defiantdog]

That was some crazy shit, winds are still howling. We have multiple trees down on our property. Surge finally going back out but we were about an inch or two from having the bayou in our house. I doubt we?ll have power anytime soon, still have water for now. Hope the rest of y?all on the Coast are doing ok.

I'm sorry about that Timber..... You have a generator?

[TimberBeast]

I'm sorry about that Timber..... You have a generator?

Thank you. We don?t but a couple neighbors do. My plan was always to haul ass if it was something I might need a generator for. I?m rethinking the hell out of that plan right now.

[Commercecomet24]

Praying for safety for everyone in the path of this thing. I believe we were fortunate here in jones county so far. Looks like most of the bad stuff went east of us. Praying for y'all's safety!

[TimberBeast]

I was finally able to go outside and look a little bit. We have a small wooden crank structure that hold our boat up at the bayou. I saw part of that at the side of my house probably 30-40 yards away from where the boat is supposed to be. Pier and boat likely smashed by two trees, it?s all still underwater though so hard to tell.

[Commercecomet24]

I was finally able to go outside and look a little bit. We have a small wooden crank structure that hold our boat up at the bayou. I saw part of that at the side of my house probably 30-40 yards away from where the boat is supposed to be. Pier and boat likely smashed by two trees, it?s all still underwater though so hard to tell.

Dang man I'm sorry to hear that. I have several good friends on the coast. Roofs are gone, fences gone, trees, etc. be down there helping them cleanup this weekend. Heartbreaking!

[TimberBeast]

Worries me that not many on the coast have chimed in. Parabrave, hope the water didn?t get too high up on you. I was just walking around my house and im definitely worried about our AC unit. It?s a puzzle seeing 2x4 and 4x4 in the yard trying to figure out where they are from or if they are ours or not.

[MetEdDawg]

Having hurricane force wind gusts here in Central Alabama very early this morning. Haven't seen wind like this here in Central AL from a tropical system since Ivan.

We are over 150,000 power outages already and some 911 lines are down in some areas in Central AL. Not something we usually see here from this.

And my power went out literally as I was typing this...

[BB30]

Slightly off topic but do any of yall have a good source for 24 hr precipitation totals? I am having a hard time finding one that will provide rainfall totals for smaller towns like Pickensville AL etc. Didn't know if there was an app or something out there that may be a little easier to find the data.

[MetEdDawg]

Slightly off topic but do any of yall have a good source for 24 hr precipitation totals? I am having a hard time finding one that will provide rainfall totals for smaller towns like Pickensville AL etc. Didn't know if there was an app or something out there that may be a little easier to find the data.

Try the CoCoRaHS network. Here's the link: https://www.cocorahs.org/

The southeast has a good track record of having a lot of community data points that are reported to give you an idea locally of how much rainfall or precipitation others around you got.

[FISHDAWG]

Having hurricane force wind gusts here in Central Alabama very early this morning. Haven't seen wind like this here in Central AL from a tropical system since Ivan.

We are over 150,000 power outages already and some 911 lines are down in some areas in Central AL. Not something we usually see here from this.

And my power went out literally as I was typing this...

same here in Atlanta ... trees down and power out everywhere. Crazy that it's doing damage this far inland

[PCHSDawg]

Came right over us here in Perry County, one tree down that I saw on my way to work this morning. Eye went over my Pop's house, no real damage. Heck our power was back on by 5am. Glad we got off so easy, hate it for the ones that didn't. I did hear that the Mississippi Power customers may be out for a while due to transmission line damage.

[TimberBeast]

I know I easily saw 20 transformers blow last night, for a while the light from the them blowing was the only way we could see how high the water was getting.

[defiantdog]

Thank you. We don?t but a couple neighbors do. My plan was always to haul ass if it was something I might need a generator for. I?m rethinking the hell out of that plan right now.
The tornado in 2011 cut my power for 3 days..... since then, I bought a generator so I wouldn't have to go through that again. It's really not a bad investment.

[ScoobaDawg]

Glad everyone is alright it sounds like. was surprised how much it ramped up yesterday. Saw a good graphic this morning showing how the low over Ok/TX didn't move east as much as initial thought. that would have provided shear all the way up to landfall and then rushed it to the NE fast. instead it didn't shear but vented the storm allowing it to gain strength even with the cooler gulf temps. it even got more organized several hours into landfall.

[RocketDawg]

There's another possible storm development in the Caribbean. If it forms, it'll be Eta (unless another storm forms first).

[starkvegasdawg]

There's another possible storm development in the Caribbean. If it forms, it'll be Eta (unless another storm forms first).

Hopefully, if it forms it'll head into Mexico and not into the Gulf.

[Extendedcab]

Hopefully, if it forms it'll head into Mexico and not into the Gulf.

OK, all of you weather forecasters are FIRED! We need forecasts for good fall type weather, clear skies, cool/cold temps so we can enjoy the beautiful fall colors in MS .. yes that is right, fall colors in MS! So tell the good weather forecasters, there are job openings, no need to apply, just show up and forecast!

:rolleyes:

[starkvegasdawg]

OK, all of you weather forecasters are FIRED! We need forecasts for good fall type weather, clear skies, cool/cold temps so we can enjoy the beautiful fall colors in MS .. yes that is right, fall colors in MS! So tell the good weather forecasters, there are job openings, no need to apply, just show up and forecast!

:rolleyes:

First frost possible Sunday and Monday nights for the Highway 82 corridor. How's that?

[Extendedcab]

First frost possible Sunday and Monday nights for the Highway 82 corridor. How's that?


It's a start, can you bring the frost a little further south to Madison? :cool:

[RocketDawg]

OK, all of you weather forecasters are FIRED! We need forecasts for good fall type weather, clear skies, cool/cold temps so we can enjoy the beautiful fall colors in MS .. yes that is right, fall colors in MS! So tell the good weather forecasters, there are job openings, no need to apply, just show up and forecast!

:rolleyes:

The temp has dropped about 20 degrees here since mid-afternoon, and it's still falling. Strong winds too - stronger from the front that from Zeta that went well south of us. Not many leaves left on the trees. Should have our first freeze (it's already been to 34 with frost) this weekend, maybe tomorrow night. Not a lot of leaf color this year though.

It's a good thing we're not playing tonight because of the wind - that would ruin any chance of Costello having much success with passing. It should be nice and calm, but quite chilly, Saturday in Tuscasloosa.

[RocketDawg]

It's a start, can you bring the frost a little further south to Madison? :cool:

It might happen down there. Maybe not a freeze, but frost in some areas.

[starkvegasdawg]

It's a start, can you bring the frost a little further south to Madison? :cool:

Monday night Forecast your area...patchy frost after 1:00am. Low 36.

[Extendedcab]

Real fall weather and no storms! Gosh, that makes me want to cry! I know, I'm an old softy!

[TimberBeast]

Still no power at our house in Ocean Springs. I know there are plenty that do have it.

[TimberBeast]

Still no power at our house in Ocean Springs. I know there are plenty that do have it.

Power came back on right as I clicked post reply. That was a trip.

[parabrave]

Timber thanks for checking in on me. I stayed at a friend's house off of 2nd street in Gulfport. Just trees and limbs. A few buildings had some structure damage. It seemed that wherever a tree fell it took out a line or pole. Dam near every street had lines taken out. Winds only got to sustained 80 gusts to 100 in Gulfport. Water covered 90 in places where it always flood. On big lake water got up maybe 5 ft. Gonna be a while till we get power in channel place cove drive🚗

[TimberBeast]

Timber thanks for checking in on me. I stayed at a friend's house off of 2nd street in Gulfport. Just trees and limbs. A few buildings had some structure damage. It seemed that wherever a tree fell it took out a line or pole. Dam near every street had lines taken out. Winds only got to sustained 80 gusts to 100 in Gulfport. Water covered 90 in places where it always flood. On big lake water got up maybe 5 ft. Gonna be a while till we get power in channel place cove drive🚗

Good to hear you?re doing ok. I hope you guys get power back soon, I didn?t expect to have it back tonight here and I?m sure there are way more problems that way.

[parabrave]

Power still out in Gulfport around 2nd street. Most of Biloxi has power except around Edgewater, Channel Mark. Most roads are open and some one please get the idiot mhp and mdot officers away from Cowan pass road intersection. They don't have a clue on how to direct traffic

[parabrave]

Hey Timber just got power back around 5Pm just in time to watch this piece of shit exhibition of football. Thank heaven for the Island View sports was down yesterday cause I would've lost my ass. It's going to be awhile for most of Gulfport to get their power back.

[TimberBeast]

Hey Timber just got power back around 5Pm just in time to watch this piece of shit exhibition of football. Thank heaven for the Island View sports was down yesterday cause I would've lost my ass. It's going to be awhile for most of Gulfport to get their power back.

Man glad to hear you got power back on, that makes everything much better. I keep hearing about the nightmares over in Gulfport with traffic. I want to go check things out over that way but I?m staying out of the way. Still have plenty to deal with at my house. It was weird trick or treating with my daughter tonight having to walk around big piles of debris on the sidewalks. It was a nice distraction though and we had tons of kids out in the neighborhood.

[msbulldog]

Glad you guys are okay!

[parabrave]

Glad you guys are okay!

Thanks/

[RocketDawg]

Hurricane Eta is at 150 mph at the 6:00 CST update, just off the coast of Guatamala/Nicaragua. It's going to do some major damage down there, and potentially could impact the US. It intensified very rapidly, but that's not the first time it's happened down there. I seem to remember one a few years ago that went from a depression to a Cat 5 virtually overnight in the same area.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hurricane Eta is at 150 mph at the 6:00 CST update, just off the coast of Guatamala/Nicaragua. It's going to do some major damage down there, and potentially could impact the US. It intensified very rapidly, but that's not the first time it's happened down there. I seem to remember one a few years ago that went from a depression to a Cat 5 virtually overnight in the same area.

I believe that was Wilma.

And Eta is expected to curve back into the Caribbean after redecorating Nicaragua. After that all bets are off on its track. Models are all over the place. Literally, all over the place.

[TimberBeast]

I was just looking at eta info, going to enjoy Peter Anderson Festival this weekend and not think about it. After Zeta we?re heading to family in Jacktown if another one comes this way this year. That one put the fear in me.

[RocketDawg]

I believe that was Wilma.

And Eta is expected to curve back into the Caribbean after redecorating Nicaragua. After that all bets are off on its track. Models are all over the place. Literally, all over the place.

I just looked it up - it was Mitch in 1998. Killed 11,000 people in Central America, and Eta could possible be almost as bad. It was a strong Cat 4 at landfall, I believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch

[starkvegasdawg]

I just looked it up - it was Mitch in 1998. Killed 11,000 people in Central America, and Eta could possible be almost as bad. It was a strong Cat 4 at landfall, I believe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch

That's right. It was Mitch. Now I have to go see what was making me think of Wilma.

[RocketDawg]

Hurricane Iota is now a Cat 5 with winds of 160, and is going into Nicaragua, which is just south of where the Cat 4 came ashore just a week or two ago. It's going to really be destructive, and possibly very deadly.

[msstate7]

Hurricane Iota is now a Cat 5 with winds of 160, and is going into Nicaragua, which is just south of where the Cat 4 came ashore just a week or two ago. It's going to really be destructive, and possibly very deadly.

Expected to hit US?

[parabrave]

Expected to hit US?

No it's going to continue to the Pacific. Well this is 2020 so you never know!

[parabrave]

Dam 160 MPH winds/ If you want to see a picture hurricane look at the satellite of it.

[RocketDawg]

There's another disturbance that may be forming in the Caribbean, about the same place that Iota formed a few days ago.