29 offensive drives against KY & ARK; looking at the ugly stats that may give hope...

[DeviousDawg]

We had 29 total drives against Arkansas and Kentucky, lets dive into all the ugly numbers. Yes, this may be hard to read, but it will also show you that we are not that far off, just have to finish and hold onto the ball. That will come with experience in this offense.

29 Offensive Drives:

2 of 29 (7%) resulted in points, both being TD's
27 of 29 (93%) resulted in giving the ball back to the opponent
14 of 29 (48%) resulted in turnovers
9 of 29 (31%) resulted in INT, returned for 184 yards & 2 TD
1 of 29 (3%) resulted in a fumble
4 of 29 (14%) resulted in turnover on downs
1 of 29 (3%) resulted in a missed field goal attempt
1 of 29 (3%) resulted in the end of the half
11 of 29 (38%) resulted in punts



Average field position = MS27

26 of 29 started within our own 38 yard line
3 of 29 started in opponent territory (0 pts; 2 TOD, 1 missed FGA)


7 of 29 drives made it into the redzone:

2 of 7 (29%) redzone trips ended in points, both TD
2 of 7 (29%) ended in turnover on downs
3 of 7 (43%) ended in INT



12 of 29 (41%) drives crossed the 50 yard line:

2 of 12 (17%) ended in points, both TD
2 of 12 (17%) ended in punts
1 of 12 (8%) ended in missed FGA
2 of 12 (17%) ended in turnover on downs
5 of 12 (42%) ended in INT



3rd and 4th down conversions

9 of 34 (26%) 3rd downs were converted successfully
6 of 10 (60%) 4th downs were converted successfully




Yes, there is a ton of bad in there, but it shows me that IF we can fix the bad, our offense will be just fine. It begins and ends with cleaning up the turnovers.

48% of our drives in the last 2 games resulted in turnovers. You will never win with that stat.
We made it to the redzone 7 times and only scored points 29% of the time.
We crossed the 50 yard line 12 times and only scored points 17% of the time.
We threw 9 pics for a total of 184 interception return yards, we fumbled in our own territory and have had 4 turnover on downs. All of that combined gives the opponent good field position, which in turn, contributes to our poor starting field position.
We only have converted 9 of 34 3rd down conversions, we have to get that up, and we will.


Basically, it can only get better. We are transitioning, and the LSU game set us, the players and media up to expect too much, too soon. Let's see what kind of improvement we see over this season, it's going to take a while but slow and steady improvement is all we can ask for. Leach and his QB's have always struggled in year 1, why would it be any different here? He needs a year, and probably more, to get his guys in that fit the scheme, and truly install the playbook and muscle memory that comes with learning it. I have been pretty down about the future of our program the last 2 weeks, but after some time to reflect, I think we will be fine in time. We are just going to have to give it time, and appreciate the improvement when it's there. I think we see some of these numbers from above improve this weekend against TAMU, and in fact, I have a feeling we might give them a little scare.

[Percho]

It also says to me, maybe the one think Coach L could learn is sometimes you need to take the points.

Taking the points does more than just getting the points. Seldom is it discouraging. Not getting any, IS.

[Todd4State]

I'm pissed at the players more than anything.

We've had two offensive geniuses allegedly work with these players. They still do a lot of the same crap across two staffs now. I know a lot of our fans default to blaming the coach but with the sample size here I'm blaming the players for having their heads up their asses.

[ShotgunDawg]

It also says to me, maybe the one think Coach L could learn is sometimes you need to take the points.

Taking the points does more than just getting the points. Seldom is it discouraging. Not getting any, IS.

the analytics are pretty strong that you should go for TDs. I for one have no issue with Leach's decisions thus far to go for TDs.

Obviously late in the game when things have shaped up, you take the points, but until the 4th quarter, going for TDs on 4th and manageable is the right call.

College football teams convert 4th downs at about a 54% rate and TDs are worth more than twice what FGs are.

Read this article

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/10/25/going-for-it-4th-down-makes-fuel-football-scoring-surge/38277757/

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm pissed at the players more than anything.

We've had two offensive geniuses allegedly work with these players. They still do a lot of the same crap across two staffs now. I know a lot of our fans default to blaming the coach but with the sample size here I'm blaming the players for having their heads up their asses.

Joe's problem wasn't his offense. Joe's problem was he wasn't a head coach.

Leach is a head coach and thus will get this going right.

[Quaoarsking]

14 turnovers in 2 games is mind-blowingly bad. No way to sugarcoat that.

I suspect we won't have 7 against this Saturday though.

[Quaoarsking]

the analytics are pretty strong that you should go for TDs. I for one have no issue with Leach's decisions thus far to go for TDs.

Obviously late in the game when things have shaped up, you take the points, but until the 4th quarter, going for TDs on 4th and manageable is the right call.

College football teams convert 4th downs at about a 54% rate and TDs are worth more than twice what FGs are.

Read this article

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/10/25/going-for-it-4th-down-makes-fuel-football-scoring-surge/38277757/

I am curious if Leach has a chart that says what to do in all 4th down situations based on mathematics and he follows that exactly, or if he bases it on gut feel.

If it's the former, I totally respect it and accept whatever outcome it causes. If it's the latter, that's gotta be fixed immediately.

[ShotgunDawg]

I am curious if Leach has a chart that says what to do in all 4th down situations based on mathematics and he follows that exactly, or if he bases it on gut feel.

If it's the former, I totally respect it and accept whatever outcome it causes. If it's the latter, that's gotta be fixed immediately.

We're currently converting 60% of our 4th down conversations. That's good. What's not on the card is throwing an int after converting a 4th down

[HoopsDawg]

We're currently converting 60% of our 4th down conversations. That's good. What's not on the card is throwing an int after converting a 4th down

I wonder what the analytics say about the shotgun formation on 4th and 1? I know for a fact the analytics love the QB sneak. And unfortutantely that's not an option under Leach.

[ShotgunDawg]

I wonder what the analytics say about the shotgun formation on 4th and 1? I know for a fact the analytics love the QB sneak. And unfortutantely that's not an option under Leach.

I actually like throwing on 4th and 1. IMO it's the easiest way to convert it. It's wide open typically

Leach was always between a 55%-70% conversation rate at Wazzou, so I think we should keep going for it.

QB sneak is great but it's only really useful on 4th and 1. Leach offense allows you to consistently convert on most anything that's 4 or less yards.

[HoopsDawg]

I actually like throwing on 4th and 1. IMO it's the easiest way to convert it. It's wide open typically

Leach was always between a 55%-70% conversation rate at Wazzou, so I think we should keep going for it.

QB sneak is great but it's only really useful on 4th and 1. Leach offense allows you to consistently convert on most anything that's 4 or less yards.

Yes, but running it on 4th and 1 from the shotgun when your QB isn't a threat is a low percentage play as we saw vs Arkansas.

[Homedawg]

Yes, but running it on 4th and 1 from the shotgun when your QB isn't a threat is a low percentage play as we saw vs Arkansas.

It's always low percentage after the fact and it doesn't work.

[ShotgunDawg]

Yes, but running it on 4th and 1 from the shotgun when your QB isn't a threat is a low percentage play as we saw vs Arkansas.

Then don't run it. Just throw quick pass

[HoopsDawg]

It's always low percentage after the fact and it doesn't work.

Huh? It's a low percentage play in general. Especially compared to the sneak.

QB sneak has a 88% conversion rate. Inside zone run has a 68% conversion rate. And that's in the NFL. Probably even easier in college.

[chef dixon]

The encouraging thing to me is we've had that many turnovers/turnover on downs and we still were in every game to a degree. Kentucky and our defense were basically begging our offense to take the game.

So with any sort of efficiency/improvement on offense we can win games. And 2-3 years down the road when the offense is hopefully a strength, we could be dangerous.

[confucius say]

14 turnovers in 2 games.
I can't get over that.
Like holy crap.
That is unbelievable.

[R2Dawg]

14 turnovers in 2 games.
I can't get over that.
Like holy crap.
That is unbelievable.

I agree and we thought Henig with 6 or 7 against LSU that year was bad. We've done it two games in a row against not great teams. Teams we are better than.

The other thing I can't get my head around is 4 pick 6s in 3 games (yes I know technically it was 3 but an 85 yard return to the goal line is close enough for me). That one was like a 14 pt swing where we were about to score. Think how bad that really is. We must fix the QB position as a priority.

Our D deserves to be 3-0.

[TheLostDawg]

Until our offensive line learns to block you can talk all day of what we need to do, we aren't going to win games. Rodgers might as well play and learn. Hopefully he doesn't get hurt. Costello doesn't know how to read the defense in an air raid offense. Defense hopefully continues being Dawgs.

[HoopsDawg]

14 turnovers in 2 games.
I can't get over that.
Like holy crap.
That is unbelievable.

We've got to stop calling an unsuccessful 4th down attempt a turnover.

[DeviousDawg]

Here is a look at each 4th down. We had 10 of them, but I'm only going to show the 8 that were real 4th down calls with implications. The other 2 were both in the final drive of the Arkansas and Kentucky game. Against Arkansas, it was a 4th and 2 at our own 20 which was converted with a pass to J. Marks. Arkansas was in prevent as it was the 2nd to last play in the game. Against Kentucky, it was a 4th and 11 at our own 46 yard line, Costello was sacked for 7 yards.

Here are the 8 real 4th down plays...

Arkansas Game-

4th & 3 at ARK 49- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 6 yards to ARK 43
4th & 2 at ARK 35- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 9 yards to ARK 26
4th & 1 at ARK 06- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 6 yards for a TD
4th & 2 at AR 13- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (PASS)- K.J. Costello pass incomplete to C. Gardner
4th & 2 at AR 07- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (RUN)- J. Marks rush for -2 yards to ARK 9

Kentucky Game-

4th & 1 at UK 38- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- K. Hill rush for 3 yards to UK 35[/B]
4th & 1 at MSST 34- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (PASS)- K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cam Gardner
4th & 5 at UK 36- 1ST DOWN (PASS)- W. Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yards to UK 23


Here they are sorted by runs and passes.

Runs-

4th & 3 at ARK 49- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 6 yards to ARK 43
4th & 2 at ARK 35- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 9 yards to ARK 26
4th & 1 at ARK 06- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- D. Johnson rush for 6 yards for a TD
4th & 1 at UK 38- 1ST DOWN (RUN)- K. Hill rush for 3 yards to UK 35
4th & 2 at AR 07- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (RUN)- J. Marks rush for -2 yards to ARK 9

Passes:

4th & 2 at AR 13- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (PASS)- K.J. Costello pass incomplete to C. Gardner
4th & 1 at MSST 34- TURNOVER ON DOWNS (PASS)- K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cam Gardner
4th & 5 at UK 36- 1ST DOWN (PASS)- W. Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yards to UK 23


-I am actually surprised how many times we ran on 4th and short.
-5 of the 8 were run plays, 4 of those 5 were converted for 1st downs. 3 of those were by Dillon Johnson, young man has a nose for the sticks.
-3 of the 8 were pass plays, only 1 of those were converted to a 1st down, and it was the longest yardage to gain for the 1st (4th & 5)
-7 of the 8 4th down conversions were from 4th & 3 or less.

[FISHDAWG]

I can't believe we are passing on 4th & 1 when we have K Hill ... or even G Schrader

[Irondawg]

And correct me if I'm wrong but on two of the passes we didn't convert didn't we have a drop on one and just a terrible throw on another where we had the guy wide open but bounced it to him?

[SheltonChoked]

I am curious if Leach has a chart that says what to do in all 4th down situations based on mathematics and he follows that exactly, or if he bases it on gut feel.

If it's the former, I totally respect it and accept whatever outcome it causes. If it's the latter, that's gotta be fixed immediately.

I've seen a chart of this for the NFL, and it is WAY more aggressive than any coach has done. IIRC, you only punt at 4th and 6 or more, every other time No matter what, you go for it. https://www.mic.com/articles/75949/should-football-teams-go-for-it-on-4th-down-this-chart-tells-you

[Maverick91]

100%

[Jarius]

We've got to stop calling an unsuccessful 4th down attempt a turnover.

Why? It is the exact same thing as a turnover (it is literally called a turnover on downs). The fact that it is not counted as an official turnover is retarded. The outcome is just as bad.

[Johnson85]

Why? It is the exact same thing as a turnover (it is literally called a turnover on downs). The fact that it is not counted as an official turnover is retarded. The outcome is just as bad.

The outcome is just as bad, but they are telling you two different things. An interception or fumble tells you you are being sloppy with the ball (most of the time; there are fluke plays that result in fumbles and to a lesser extent interceptions when people are more or less doing the right thing). A turnover on downs doesn't necessarily mean you are being sloppy. You just took a chance that didn't pay off.

Not saying they shouldn't be included in turnover stats. Don't really have a strong opinion on that either way, except that on the stats sheet, there will be somebody with a fumble and a fumble recovery or somebody with a thrown interception and an interception. No individual shows up for a turnover on downs, so in that sense, it makes sense that it's not recorded as a turnover.

[Quaoarsking]

I've seen a chart of this for the NFL, and it is WAY more aggressive than any coach has done. IIRC, you only punt at 4th and 6 or more, every other time No matter what, you go for it. https://www.mic.com/articles/75949/should-football-teams-go-for-it-on-4th-down-this-chart-tells-you

If Leach made a chart like this (adjusted to college football, our team, and our opponent) and then followed 100% of time in games, I'd respect that and never criticize a failed 4th down conversion.

[confucius say]

We've got to stop calling an unsuccessful 4th down attempt a turnover.

It is called a turnover on downs. It absolutely should be viewed with fumbles and punts when discussing turnover margin.

Are you saying we should no longer refer to a 4th down stop as a turnover on downs? Or still call it that but just don't view it as a turnover?

[TheLostDawg]

I can't believe we are passing on 4th & 1 when we have K Hill ... or even G Schrader

Because our line can't block three guys. You expect them to push 9 out of the way? If we run it every time, they know it's coming. If they have man on the outside, the way we played against LSU, why not throw it a few times.

[FISHDAWG]

Because our line can't block three guys. You expect them to push 9 out of the way? If we run it every time, they know it's coming. If they have man on the outside, the way we played against LSU, why not throw it a few times.

you are lost ... dawg

[SheltonChoked]

If Leach made a chart like this (adjusted to college football, our team, and our opponent) and then followed 100% of time in games, I'd respect that and never criticize a failed 4th down conversion.

I'd like to say I'd respect it as well.

But I know I'd lose my shit the first time he went for it on 4th and 5, backed up to our 12 yard line. I know the numbers work. But it's too big a change. And I refuse to punt in Madden or NCAA.

[PGHBulldogBG]

I would understand going for it on 4th down if we had a bad defense. Right now, our defense is the unit playing best. Don?t put them in a position to stop them on a short field because our offense can?t move the ball. Until our offense proves it can actually score, we should not be going for it on 4th down unless we are between the opponent 30 and 40 yard line.

[Johnson85]

I'd like to say I'd respect it as well.

But I know I'd lose my shit the first time he went for it on 4th and 5, backed up to our 12 yard line. I know the numbers work. But it's too big a change. And I refuse to punt in Madden or NCAA.

Do the numbers really say go for it on 4th and 5 deep in our territory? I would have thought the likely points from giving them the ball in the redzone would greatly outweigh the expected points from a 4th down conversion. Although I guess a punt from our 12 will generlaly give them pretty good field position also.

Just gut feel, for the first half, I'm fine with 4th and short once we're past our 30, 4th and 6 once we're past our 40. Don't want to go for 4th and 10 unless we're between the 50 and whatever field goal range is for us. If the team we're facing has an explosive offense, I'd rather be more aggressive as field position won't matter as much for them. If they have a weak offense, I'd rather play more for field position to avoid giving them easy points. For the 2nd half it just depends on how the game is going.

[HoopsDawg]

Why? It is the exact same thing as a turnover (it is literally called a turnover on downs). The fact that it is not counted as an official turnover is retarded. The outcome is just as bad.

In simple terms, you don't call a failed 4th down conversion a turnover because the stats don't count it as a turnover.

Our turnovers are bad enough on their own without juking the stats.

[Percho]

Any time you give the ball up without scoring points it is, a turnover.

Did Dillon J play against Ky?

[Jarius]

In simple terms, you don't call a failed 4th down conversion a turnover because the stats don't count it as a turnover.

Our turnovers are bad enough on their own without juking the stats.

I understand why you can’t officially call them a turnover, but it is the same thing and I am not going to get upset with people for including them to prove a point.

[HoopsDawg]

Any time you give the ball up without scoring points it is, a turnover.

Did Dillon J play against Ky?

So punts are turnovers?

[HoopsDawg]

Here's the larger point, several people are saying just stop turning the ball over and we will will. Well, yeah. But the turnovers are the symptoms not the cause.

The cause is our O-line's inability to block 3 with 5, the QB's inability to process the zone defense and make the right read, and our WR's inability to find the soft spot in the zone and make the play. So it's not as simple as just stop turning the ball over.

[Johnson85]

Here's the larger point, several people are saying just stop turning the ball over and we will will. Well, yeah. But the turnovers are the symptoms not the cause.

The cause is our O-line's inability to block 3 with 5, the QB's inability to process the zone defense and make the right read, and our WR's inability to find the soft spot in the zone and make the play. So it's not as simple as just stop turning the ball over.

It's not, but the second and third thing you listed should be as easy as reps and practice, so that should take care of itself as time goes one.

Of course if our O-line can't block 3 with 5, then it's going to be hard on our QB regardless of how well he and the receivers learn the offense.

[SheltonChoked]

Do the numbers really say go for it on 4th and 5 deep in our territory? I would have thought the likely points from giving them the ball in the redzone would greatly outweigh the expected points from a 4th down conversion. Although I guess a punt from our 12 will generlaly give them pretty good field position also.

Just gut feel, for the first half, I'm fine with 4th and short once we're past our 30, 4th and 6 once we're past our 40. Don't want to go for 4th and 10 unless we're between the 50 and whatever field goal range is for us. If the team we're facing has an explosive offense, I'd rather be more aggressive as field position won't matter as much for them. If they have a weak offense, I'd rather play more for field position to avoid giving them easy points. For the 2nd half it just depends on how the game is going.

If only there was a link with pictures and supplying the math for expected points...

Yes, the NFL based math in the link shows you go for it on 4th and 2 or less everytime. I have seen one before that showed only punt when it's 4th and long backed up inside the 10. The math changes based on expected outcomes (how good is your kicker, how good is your defense), But in football, you have to possess the ball to score. http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2618/3688516023_07450826e5_o.png

As a corollary, If I was Lane Kifffin, and my defense is truly as bad as it has shown this season, I'd onside every kick. You cannot reliably stop another team, take the chances on the onside.

[SheltonChoked]

Here's the larger point, several people are saying just stop turning the ball over and we will will. Well, yeah. But the turnovers are the symptoms not the cause.

The cause is our O-line's inability to block 3 with 5, the QB's inability to process the zone defense and make the right read, and our WR's inability to find the soft spot in the zone and make the play. So it's not as simple as just stop turning the ball over.

If our 5 cannot block 3, we will not be able to run either.

[Randolph Dupree]

If our 5 cannot block 3, we will not be able to run either.

It's a lot easier for the D line when they know you're throwing every play and all they have to do is pin their ears back and head for the QB. Our problems boil down to one thing: we have zero run game so defenses don't have to respect that aspect. We are one dimensional. Our O will struggle until some additional runs are mixed in and SEC DCs have to think more. It is literally that simple. Don't give me the 'it's worked for 20yrs' BS and '...it worked at UK...'. UK wasn't that great when Leach was there as OC, they were just better than normal UK. It was also 20 years ago and the SEC is a lot different. I'm not dogging Leach but if he doesn't adapt his time here will be short.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Great post, dude. Like everyone else, I'm astounded at the turnovers. They seemed so out of whack that I had to try to get some perspective. It's only a two game stretch, but it really is extraordinary. Over at Football Outsiders, the FEI offensive ratings keep track of NCAA teams' turnover rates. (% of offensive drives that end in a turnover.) Going back to 2010, the worst turnover rate out of all those roughly 1,000 teams was 22.6%. Not counting turnovers on downs, we're way beyond that at 34.5% over the past two games. Good Lord, y'all. That's nuts.

[msstate7]

Great post, dude. Like everyone else, I'm astounded at the turnovers. They seemed so out of whack that I had to try to get some perspective. It's only a two game stretch, but it really is extraordinary. Over at Football Outsiders, the FEI offensive ratings keep track of NCAA teams' turnover rates. (% of offensive drives that end in a turnover.) Going back to 2010, the worst turnover rate out of all those roughly 1,000 teams was 22.6%. Not counting turnovers on downs, we're way beyond that at 34.5% over the past two games. Good Lord, y'all. That's nuts.

My mind has started to block part of these last 2 games out of my memory, but I don't really remember that many flukish TOs. Most seem to be pretty straightforward carelessness... the int off walley's hands in end zone being the exception. Oh and Kylin fumbled opening drive against ark, but somehow replay let the play stand.