Delta now a hurricane

[starkvegasdawg]

No word about any layover in Atlanta.

[parabrave]

You might want to make plans for mandeville. 2 of the 3 main models have it going up Morgan City then Baton Rouge to Jackson. The other HMON has it Morgan City then Hammond then Columbia with one big ass wind field. Hopefully It keeps on going west.

[RocketDawg]

You might want to make plans for mandeville. 2 of the 3 main models have it going up Morgan City then Baton Rouge to Jackson. The other HMON has it Morgan City then Hammond then Columbia with one big ass wind field. Hopefully It keeps on going west.

Probably very close to Starkville by Saturday afternoon.

[starkvegasdawg]

You might want to make plans for mandeville. 2 of the 3 main models have it going up Morgan City then Baton Rouge to Jackson. The other HMON has it Morgan City then Hammond then Columbia with one big ass wind field. Hopefully It keeps on going west.

Probably sitting this one out unless it slides east to make a first strike on the MS coast. I want to save my vacation days for the fall severe weather season. What I'll probably do if it takes the current path is get south of the center and see if I can luck up on a tornado Friday night and Saturday.

[TimberBeast]

Man this season. When Laura hit I was supposed to head to Houston from the MS Coast with my daughter for a golf tournament that Friday morning. We had to withdraw from that one. Now we are supposed to head to Oklahoma for a tournament Thursday afternoon and might have to deal with the same driving issues trying to get over there. The season was already jacked up from Corona.

[RocketDawg]

Where are you driving from?

[TimberBeast]

Where are you driving from?

The MS Coast. Depending on the weather I?m looking now to hit I20 in Jackson and head that route instead of I10.

[parabrave]

You should be OK/ Stay off 10 because if they evacuate New Orleans it's going to be a mess from Wed onward.

[Cooterpoot]

Looks like this sum beach is going to affect our game Sat.

[confucius say]

Looks like this sum beach is going to affect our game Sat.

In Lexington?

[starkvegasdawg]

Current forecast track has the center squatting over Columbus, MS, at 8:00pm Saturday. Lexington should still be beyond the outer bands.

[Cooterpoot]

Current forecast track has the center squatting over Columbus, MS, at 8:00pm Saturday. Lexington should still be beyond the outer bands.

70% chance of rain with wind gusts is what I'm seeing. Also seeing 2:00 PM Sat in Columbus.
Edit: Showing it about TN/MS line about 8 AM Sat now. So looks like Lexington will be wet and windy.

[SaintDawg]

Was reading on FB, the SHIPS intensity model is predicting a 56% chance Delta reaches Cat 5 within 72 hours. Could someone explain what SHIPS is and how reliable is it?

[PGHBulldogBG]

Looks like a wash out in Lexington. We always traditionally play bad in rainy/windy conditions but with the air raid this definitely benefits UK

[Cooterpoot]

Looks like they've pushed the time frame back a good bit now.

[Bothrops]

Looks like Cancun may get a direct hit by a Cat 3 or Cat 4.

[starkvegasdawg]

Was reading on FB, the SHIPS intensity model is predicting a 56% chance Delta reaches Cat 5 within 72 hours. Could someone explain what SHIPS is and how reliable is it?

SHIPS is just one of a couple dozen tropical models. All have their good and bad days. Besides snow in MS, tropical cyclones are one of the most difficult things to forecast...especially intensity. Delta is currently undergoing rapid intensification and I would not be surprised to see it reach cat 4 status before weakening as it approaches the US. The next update is at 10:00 and I expect it to be a 3 then. Personally, I'm leery of it making it to 5, but I've been wrong before.

[parabrave]

Was reading on FB, the SHIPS intensity model is predicting a 56% chance Delta reaches Cat 5 within 72 hours. Could someone explain what SHIPS is and how reliable is it?

Go to "Tropical Tidbits" for better info than FB. Thanks to Scooba for posting the That website.

[starkvegasdawg]

Delta now a 3 with 115mph winds. Several models now run it up to a 4 and a couple into 5 territory. One well into 5 territory but I'm counting on that to be an outlier.

[ScoobaDawg]

The biggest thing to be aware of with Delta will be he surge. As it ramps up to Cat 4/5 and then weakens prior to landfall, the surge will be larger than it's landing category of say cat 2/3.

Have to see how it looks after coming off the yucatan peninsula

[RocketDawg]

It just increased to a Cat 4, 130 mph. Supposely will decrease to a minor hurricane before it comes ashore on the Gulf (maybe Louisiana), but Michael was supposed to have decreased too.

Cancun and the peninsula will suffer heavy damage.

[ScoobaDawg]

now cat 4....
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1313500525334327300

[ScoobaDawg]

Good info about why Delta will decrease in intensity before hitting us coast.

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313484132949819394

[starkvegasdawg]

Delta was originally forecast to be a 2. Now it's bumping 5. Sally and Laura both well over achieved forecasts. Would love to know how they whiffed there badly on all of them.

[parabrave]

Need it to head more west.

[Commercecomet24]

Need it to head more west.

Agreed!

[ScoobaDawg]

Delta is in a unique position to become a VERY stong cat5 based on it's position in the ocean.

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313507981695373314

[Statecoachingblows**]

Delta is in a unique position to become a VERY stong cat5 based on it's position in the ocean.

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313507981695373314

It's 2020, of course it is***

[Cooterpoot]

17 you 2020!
Looks like it's going to be a solid 3 when it hits but it has shifted West a hair. Hopefully more but the two damn troughs are going to make it tough to go west.

[msstate7]

17 you 2020!
Looks like it's going to be a solid 3 when it hits but it has shifted West a hair. Hopefully more but the two damn troughs are going to make it tough to go west.

Who all is expected to get hit hard?

[parabrave]

Who all is expected to get hit hard?

Get out of Morgan City.

[parabrave]

Might want to call this one the HWY 61 storm. Latest models and they are all in agreement have it Morgan City Baton Rouge then 61 all the way up.

[Commercecomet24]

Might want to call this one the HWY 61 storm. Latest models and they are all in agreement have it Morgan City Baton Rouge then 61 all the way up.

So you believe its gonna prety much follow the Mississippi River north? Appreciate all your info!

[parabrave]

So you believe its gonna prety much follow the Mississippi River north? Appreciate all your info!

Well the GFS, HRWF abnd HMON are basically in agreement. The HMON has been the eastern most model most of the year and they are finally in agreement with the others. But it all depends on when the Trough moves through. Also look at where it goes over the Yucatan. Yesterday it was going to hit the western half of Cuba. Now its the middle of the Yucatan. Yep Cancun gonna get hit bad. Of course Scooba is more of an expert than me and he has more informed sources. Tomorrow check all the Storm Chasers and see where they are heading, That would be a good indication.

[starkvegasdawg]

Delta now has 140mph sustained.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_26_ens.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#26L

[Commercecomet24]

Well the GFS, HRWF abnd HMON are basically in agreement. The HMON has been the eastern most model most of the year and they are finally in agreement with the others. But it all depends on when the Trough moves through. Also look at where it goes over the Yucatan. Yesterday it was going to hit the western half of Cuba. Now its the middle of the Yucatan. Yep Cancun gonna get hit bad. Of course Scooba is more of an expert than me and he has more informed sources. Tomorrow check all the Storm Chasers and see where they are heading, That would be a good indication.

Appreciate the info.

[parabrave]

Baton Rouge is going to take a big pounding. If you a roofing contractor you might want to go start handing out flyers.

[starkvegasdawg]

Official track has now shifted west. Landfall looks to be central LA coast and then sitting over Vicksburg as a tropical storm by Saturday afternoon and then tracking NE towards Tupelo. This puts most of MS south of the center and in the tornado threat as it moves inland.

[BogeyGolfer]

Official track has now shifted west. Landfall looks to be central LA coast and then sitting over Vicksburg as a tropical storm by Saturday afternoon and then tracking NE towards Tupelo. This puts most of MS south of the center and in the tornado threat as it moves inland.

I'm no expert or weather guru but by the looks of everything I've read, I think it ends up moving to the west of Vicksburg slightly....But who knows at this point, it depends on when it makes its northern turn.

[parabrave]

Anywhere from Lake Charles to Redstick is going to get pounded due to the immense size of the windfield.

[RocketDawg]

Delta is currently (as of 5 p.m. Oct 6) a Cat 4 with winds of 145.

The pressure is 956 mb (28.23 in Hg). Isn't the pressure a little high for a storm with winds of that speed? Going strictly off memory here.

[Dolphus Raymond]

The track projections continue to shit a little bit to the west. Baton Rouge looks It may get hit hard.

[Commercecomet24]

The track projections continue to shit a little bit to the west. Baton Rouge looks It may get hit hard.

You might want to edit this post 😂

[Churchill]

If this thing comes through central MS as a 65 MPH tropical storm with higher wind gusts we're gonna have some serious power outages.

[RocketDawg]

Delta is currently (as of 5 p.m. Oct 6) a Cat 4 with winds of 145.

The pressure is 956 mb (28.23 in Hg). Isn't the pressure a little high for a storm with winds of that speed? Going strictly off memory here.

I'll answer my own question - yes, the pressure is quite high for a Cat 4: 4 — Extreme 920 to 944 mb or 27.17 to 27.88 in

This is taken from the Hurricane Glossary: Scroll down to the heading "Saffir-Simpson Scale". https://secoora.org/education-outreach/hurricanes/hurricane-glossary/

[DownwardDawg]

You might want to edit this post ��

Hahaha!!!

[Cooterpoot]

I predict it moves closer to hitting nearer the TX/LA line. Just got a feeling. Could be the Buffalo Trace.

[starkvegasdawg]

Winds are now down to 130 as it encounters some shear.

[Commercecomet24]

Looks like the hmon is showing it pushing further west around Lafayette and staying west of the Mississippi line until it reaches the la/ark/ms line.

[TimberBeast]

Looking better to me

[parabrave]

Looking better to me

Dam right. Don't want this monster anywhere near Biloxi. These storms usually jog a bit to the sides by 10 - 20 mile as they get closer but all the models are being in agreement and consistent as to where it comes ashore and the inland track. BTW all Tabasco lovers better stock up on that shut cause Avery Island is going to get wiped out.

[starkvegasdawg]

Track continues to shift west. Current forecast is landfall in western LA during the day Friday and working its way to around Greenville by daybreak Saturday before pushing off NE. Anyone in western MS, all of LA, and SE Arkansas should prepare for heavy wind and rain this weekend. Additionally, most of MS will be on the eastern side and there will be an isolated tornado threat as the bands move through. Good day Saturday to break out your copy of the Kama Sutra. Going to be nasty weather outside and the rain will knock out satellite for TV. So go on and let your wife / gf play qb and see if she can find your first down stick.

[Cooterpoot]

Track continues to shift west. Current forecast is landfall in western LA during the day Friday and working its way to around Greenville by daybreak Saturday before pushing off NE. Anyone in western MS, all of LA, and SE Arkansas should prepare for heavy wind and rain this weekend. Additionally, most of MS will be on the eastern side and there will be an isolated tornado threat as the bands move through. Good day Saturday to break out your copy of the Kama Sutra. Going to be nasty weather outside and the rain will knock out satellite for TV. So go on and let your wife / gf play qb and see if she can find your first down stick.

I agree! Good way to burn 3 minutes.

[MadDawg]

If this thing comes through central MS as a 65 MPH tropical storm with higher wind gusts we're gonna have some serious power outages.

That's pretty much what Katrina did. Except her winds were sustained here for hours and hours. Only bright side here is Delta is moving fast.

[MadDawg]

Track continues to shift west. Current forecast is landfall in western LA during the day Friday and working its way to around Greenville by daybreak Saturday before pushing off NE. Anyone in western MS, all of LA, and SE Arkansas should prepare for heavy wind and rain this weekend. Additionally, most of MS will be on the eastern side and there will be an isolated tornado threat as the bands move through. Good day Saturday to break out your copy of the Kama Sutra. Going to be nasty weather outside and the rain will knock out satellite for TV. So go on and let your wife / gf play qb and see if she can find your first down stick.

Just watched an episode of Andy Griffith where Otis fell in the courthouse and hurt his knee. He said his knee was already hurt from an old football injury - from playing football with his wife. HA!

[Commercecomet24]

The things still shifting west, keeps moving more to the west.

[Commercecomet24]

The hmon showing it making landfall close to lake Charles now unless it keeps going west.

[RocketDawg]

The hmon showing it making landfall close to lake Charles now unless it keeps going west.

The 7 p.m. Central has winds at 90 mph (increasing after leaving Mexico, as expected), moving NW rapidly at 17 mph. Central pressure 973 mb. Mississippi and north Alabama will be on the "dirty" side of the storm, if the predicted path holds - meaning lots of rain and tornadoes possible.

[Commercecomet24]

The 7 p.m. Central has winds at 90 mph (increasing after leaving Mexico, as expected), moving NW rapidly at 17 mph. Central pressure 973 mb. Mississippi and north Alabama will be on the "dirty" side of the storm, if the predicted path holds - meaning lots of rain and tornadoes possible.

Always hate being on the east side of these things.

[SaintDawg]

storm keeps shifting west. same part of LA to be hit by 2 major hurricanes in same season. what are the odds of that?

[Liverpooldawg]

Just watched an episode of Andy Griffith where Otis fell in the courthouse and hurt his knee. He said his knee was already hurt from an old football injury - from playing football with his wife. HA!

Did you ever notice that the only married regular character on that show was the town drunk?

[biscuit]

Aight weather Dawgs. What's happening with this storm. This is where I get my storm updates.

[DownwardDawg]

Did you ever notice that the only married regular character on that show was the town drunk?

Yes. And I totally understand.....

[parabrave]

See the hurricane delta thread above or just go the NWS site/

[parabrave]

Did you ever notice that the only married regular character on that show was the town drunk?

Wasn't the Milk/egg man married and Aunt Bea thought he was hot for her?

[TrapGame]

I thought Floyd the Barber was married. He had a rather homely daughter he put in the Ms. Mayberry beauty pageant.

[Dawgfan77]

Did you ever notice that the only married regular character on that show was the town drunk?
Little know fact...Mayberry was the Reunion of North Carolina.. pineapple flags everywhere...

[RocketDawg]

This site is updated regularly: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

[TimberBeast]

We got into Shreveport from the MS Coast a little while ago, drove through rain from Wiggins all the way here.

[ScoobaDawg]

Aight weather Dawgs. What's happening with this storm. This is where I get my storm updates.

For Tate county... 2-4" inches of rain between fri-sun. 10% chance of flash flooding.
10% chance of tropical storm winds.

So.. I wouldn't be worried about much.


Only people that have much to worry about are from pretty much the state of Louisiana especially from tx/la state line over to morgan city... upto baton rouge and then along the west side of 55 up to Yazoo city. As mentioned on the east side beware of the potential of popup tornadoes.

Lot's of good info here..
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/031039.shtml?tswind120#contents

As of now Delta looks to continue strengthening but that should end before sunrise.

[basedog]

I'm seeing a Cat 1 hitting the coast land. Cooler water with some wind shear.

[Maroonthirteen]

How will the wind and rain be in north MS around 630p tomorrow?

I have already tested my ESPN ap on the smart tv. I fully expect satellite tv to crap out. Also, I have fresh batteries in the radio just in case of power outage.

[Dawg_Lover]

Just copied off of Memphis Channel 5 NBC weather site ...

Windy with periods of rain Saturday into Saturday night. Some will be heavy at times. Rain totals will range from 1-3″ in most areas with the higher amounts in north Mississippi. Winds will gust up to 40 mph or higher in spots, especially between 6 AM and noon. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s. East wind 10-25 with gusts to 40 mph.

[RocketDawg]

Delta is about to make landfall, TWC says within a couple of hours. Will be a Cat 2.

[RocketDawg]

How will the wind and rain be in north MS around 630p tomorrow?

I have already tested my ESPN ap on the smart tv. I fully expect satellite tv to crap out. Also, I have fresh batteries in the radio just in case of power outage.

I suspect the Alabama/Bears game will be a mess in Oxford tomorrow night. Streaming ESPN apparently didn't work all that well for the Arkansas game last weekend based on several posts.

The ESPN app isn't available for LG televisions - have to use Roku or Firestick, Apple TV, etc.

[Cooterpoot]

I suspect the Alabama/Bears game will be a mess in Oxford tomorrow night. Streaming ESPN apparently didn't work all that well for the Arkansas game last weekend based on several posts.

The ESPN app isn't available for LG televisions - have to use Roku or Firestick, Apple TV, etc.

You can mirror your phone to a smart tv if you can get the ESPN app on your phone.

[Liverpooldawg]

Wasn't the Milk/egg man married and Aunt Bea thought he was hot for her?

He wasn't a regular.

[Liverpooldawg]

I thought Floyd the Barber was married. He had a rather homely daughter he put in the Ms. Mayberry beauty pageant.

I think that was a niece.

[Maroonthirteen]

Fox 13 said 30-40mph gust in the morning. But calming to 15-20 for the Bama game. It will still be a rainy mess.

I wanted to watch the first half of that game before ours. Oh well

[RocketDawg]

You can mirror your phone to a smart tv if you can get the ESPN app on your phone.

I have Dish and lose the signal with anything over a light rain, but I've got a Roku so shouldn't have any problem as long as the internet stays up. The storm's not supposed to affect us until late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, and even then not very much. We're on the tornadic side though if the track is correct.

[RocketDawg]

Fox 13 said 30-40mph gust in the morning. But calming to 15-20 for the Bama game. It will still be a rainy mess.

I wanted to watch the first half of that game before ours. Oh well

Yeah, they moved it because of the wind potential but the latest track I've seen on hurricanes.gov has it being a tropical depression just west of Oxford at 7 p.m. Saturday. Would have been good to have seen the first half because it would likely have basically been over by then.

[parabrave]

It's hauling ass now. Hey SVD watched a few of the live streams from some of your buddies. Most of them said the highest winds were 85-90. Alot of rain though.99c Might be doing some FEMA work down there in the next few weeks.

[99jc]

It's hauling ass now. Hey SVD watched a few of the live streams from some of your buddies. Most of them said the highest winds were 85-90. Alot of rain though.99c Might be doing some FEMA work down there in the next few weeks.

dang i hope not!

[starkvegasdawg]

The tornado threat is now starting to emerge. Got one confirmed on the ground near Mobile now. It looks like they've shifted a lot of the threat out of our area, but if I were in MS or AL I'd still be vigilant as the feeder bands move through your area.

[Cooterpoot]

This thing fell apart faster than a presidential debate.

[msbulldog]

Lights out in West Monroe, about 4200 customers.

[TrapGame]

Let the dog out to pee this am and didn't realize my back fence was blown down. So the dog goes and takes a dump in the neighbor's backyard.

[defiantdog]

Let the dog out to pee this am and didn't realize my back fence was blown down. So the dog goes and takes a dump in the neighbor's backyard.
That's a good boy

[DownwardDawg]

Let the dog out to pee this am and didn't realize my back fence was blown down. So the dog goes and takes a dump in the neighbor's backyard.

Win!!!

[msbulldog]

Lights back on .

[parabrave]

Let the dog out to pee this am and didn't realize my back fence was blown down. So the dog goes and takes a dump in the neighbor's backyard.

Is your neighbor an Ole Miss fan, then good job scooby.

[msbulldog]

Lights back on just in time before my Laptop battery and my hot spot phone battery was about gone. Thinking about buying a generator before next hurricane season. Though in 6 years here this is the longest we've ever been without electricity, from 1:00 am till 10:30 am. I figured out the power was out at 1:00 am because I couldn't breathe, I sleep with a CPAP mask on.

[FISHDAWG]

Hurricane guys .... I think I just saw where there's another possibility of yet another hurricane headed towards the gulf .... any early word on this? Just curious as I was heading down towards NOLA late next week

[starkvegasdawg]

Hurricane guys .... I think I just saw where there's another possibility of yet another hurricane headed towards the gulf .... any early word on this? Just curious as I was heading down towards NOLA late next week

There's a tropical wave with a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days before upper level winds rip it a new one. Not something I'd give a second thought to right now.

[FISHDAWG]

There's a tropical wave with a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days before upper level winds rip it a new one. Not something I'd give a second thought to right now.

thanks ... not changing plans just yet