Hurricane Sally

[starkvegasdawg]

Starting a new thread since the post count was getting on up there.

Sally now at 85mph snd has strengthened rapidly in the last hour. Track and strength at landfall have not been updated since 10am report. Hopefully, this rapid intensification is not a sign of what's about to happen.

[Uncle Ruckus]

Landfall now along the east MS coast?

[msstate7]

Landfall now along the east MS coast?

When?

[Uncle Ruckus]

I think tomorrow evening is still eta. The pressure just dropped a lot, so this thing my blow up. Hopefully the eastward trend continues and it scoots down the coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

Landfall now along the east MS coast?

A more eastward hit is possible. NHC should update track shortly. Right now still tracking due west.

[Mobile Bay]

A more eastward hit is possible. NHC should update track shortly. Right now still tracking due west.

Still somewhere in the landmass?

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/385/704/f0d.jpg

[parabrave]

3 models have it heading west till due south of Goula then due north up the Goula River. The Ukmet has it hitting Breton then heading straight for Bilox/OS. That track has the Eye tracking over the entire Harrison County coastline.

[Johnson85]

A more eastward hit is possible. NHC should update track shortly. Right now still tracking due west.

Do they do more frequent updates when landfall is near? I was thinking the next update wouldn't be until 4pm central?

[starkvegasdawg]

Updated track is a landfall near Gulfport as a Cat 2.

[WinningIsRelentless]

NWS is telling USAR teams that its 50/50 on the storming shifting further east and hitting Mobile.

[parabrave]

NWS is telling USAR teams that its 50/50 on the storming shifting further east and hitting Mobile.

The HMONs has been forecasting this for the last few days. They have been very consistent.

[Commercecomet24]

The HMONs has been forecasting this for the last few days. They have been very consistent.

I noticed the Hmon also has it going back down through Florida and re entering the gulf.

[starkvegasdawg]

Do they do more frequent updates when landfall is near? I was thinking the next update wouldn't be until 4pm central?

Yes. They'll go to every two hours and then hourly.

[parabrave]

They are freaking out in Pensacola. No warning Pensacola Beach already flooding.

[99jc]

Cat 2 now...hearing could get to Cat 3 now. were on notice for deployment......AGAIN!

[confucius say]

Yesterday morning it was supposed to make landfall as a 1. Now I'm hearing a 3.

Hurricanes are crazy. I feel like even with all the advanced technology it is just an educated guess at best

[Uncle Ruckus]

Looks like it?s going to stall at the MSR mouth and then push back east at a snails pace

[99jc]

We just got the call....headed to Mobile we were told the beaches across to Destin may be totally destroyed...Dolphin
Island if your there get the hell out now. Being a Federal officer and a FEMA 1st responder has really sucked this year! i have only been home 4 -5 weeks since covid started now theses hurricanes.... Hail State!

[Dawgpile]

The latest GFS ensemble has the landfall in Waveland-Pass Christian area, but the Global models mostly have Sally moving up the mouth of Mobile Bay...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/19L_tracks_latest.png

[starkvegasdawg]

We just got the call....headed to Mobile we were told the beaches across to Destin may be totally destroyed...Dolphin
Island if your there get the hell out now. Being a Federal officer and a FEMA 1st responder has really sucked this year! i have only been home 4 -5 weeks since covid started now theses hurricanes.... Hail State!

Was really hoping not Mobile, but it is what it is as somewhere between Pascagoula and there looks to be the target. A hit there could cause catastrophic urban flooding.

[starkvegasdawg]

Little geeked out right now. CTV out of Canada, basically their cnn, has requested a live interview tomorrow morning.

[99jc]

Little geeked out right now. CTV out of Canada, basically their cnn, has requested a live interview tomorrow morning.

Come with me and you can do it live from the beach........Jim Cantori style!

[RocketDawg]

We just got the call....headed to Mobile we were told the beaches across to Destin may be totally destroyed...Dolphin
Island if your there get the hell out now. Being a Federal officer and a FEMA 1st responder has really sucked this year! i have only been home 4 -5 weeks since covid started now theses hurricanes.... Hail State!

Once again, be careful. I have a feeling Mobile will be hit hard, and Baldwin County on the east side will get some major storm surge. Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Destin, and points between will have major damage.

[RocketDawg]

Little geeked out right now. CTV out of Canada, basically their cnn, has requested a live interview tomorrow morning.

Cool. Presumably it'll be available online for those of us who don't get CTV. :) Let us know.

[Uncle Ruckus]

The NAM, GFS, and ECMWC models all still say it is still going to have a westwardly track. Aren?t those the 3 most reliable models? And if so, why aren?t we following those?

[Commercecomet24]

Little geeked out right now. CTV out of Canada, basically their cnn, has requested a live interview tomorrow morning.

You go boy! Don't screw up! 😂

[starkvegasdawg]

Cool. Presumably it'll be available online for those of us who don't get CTV. :) Let us know.

I honestly have no idea. But I guarantee you I try to find out.

[starkvegasdawg]

The NAM, GFS, and ECMWC models all still say it is still going to have a westwardly track. Aren?t those the 3 most reliable models? And if so, why aren?t we following those?

There are some other models that only deal with tropical systems. Those three big ones, are used, but they can be biased. It all comes down to looking at all the models and then trying to determine which ones have a good grip on it.

[TimberBeast]

There are some other models that only deal with tropical systems. Those three big ones, are used, but they can be biased. It all comes down to looking at all the models and then trying to determine which ones have a good grip on it.

How confident are you guys that it hits closer to Mobile than Biloxi?

[parabrave]

The NAM, GFS, and ECMWC models all still say it is still going to have a westwardly track. Aren?t those the 3 most reliable models? And if so, why aren?t we following those?

According to the latest run, 2400Z, all models are now bayou La Batre to Destin. When reading the charts make sure you look at when they were made. Our TV station in Biloxi has been using the same Surge info all day. It's 12 hours old.

[parabrave]

Weather channel just showed Daulphin Island It's Awash. Destin beaches are getting obliterated.

[Commercecomet24]

According to the latest run, 2400Z, all models are now bayou La Batre to Destin. When reading the charts make sure you look at when they were made. Our TV station in Biloxi has been using the same Surge info all day. It's 12 hours old.

What site is that your looking at? I'd like to check it out. Appreciate yall!

[parabrave]

What site is that your looking at? I'd like to check it out. Appreciate yall!

Tropical Tidbits, with Kudoz to Scooba for letting me know that. Also the WeatherUnderground under Severe Weather.

[Commercecomet24]

Tropical Tidbits, with Kudoz to Scooba for letting me know that. Also the WeatherUnderground under Severe Weather.

Thanks man! Y'all are the best! I trust the people on here more than anyone else!

[starkvegasdawg]

How confident are you guys that it hits closer to Mobile than Biloxi?
Right now the center is about 40 miles from being due south of Mobile and movement is just north of west. I'm starting think this may be between Biloxi and Pascagoula.

[msstate7]

Little geeked out right now. CTV out of Canada, basically their cnn, has requested a live interview tomorrow morning.

That's cool man. Congrats

[Tripp McNeely]

I left Dauphin Island about 12 hours ago! It?ll be underwater by now! The first 30 minutes of that drive was frightening! The street in front of our condo was flooding as we scrambled out of there! The surge was insane!

[Commercecomet24]

I left Dauphin Island about 12 hours ago! It?ll be underwater by now! The first 30 minutes of that drive was frightening! The street in front of our condo was flooding as we scrambled out of there! The surge was insane!

Glad you got out of there safely!

[trob115]

Dauphin island is notorious for flooding in "normal" storms. I imagine they will see some awful damage from Sally.

[iPat09]

Hoping Orange Beach doesn't get hit too badly. Girlfriend and I are supposed to go down there next month instead of going to Disney, which we cancelled because of Covid.

[starkvegasdawg]

This is just me talking and I may be completely wrong, but I don't see this hitting Mobile any more. The center is almost even with the eastern edge of Mobile Bay and from all appearances it is still moving almost due west.

[TimberBeast]

This is just me talking and I may be completely wrong, but I don't see this hitting Mobile any more. The center is almost even with the eastern edge of Mobile Bay and from all appearances it is still moving almost due west.

I tend to agree, we got outta dodge a little while ago, headed up to Jackson for the night.

[Uncle Ruckus]

GFS is holding strong and agreeing with you, but hell, we may not find out until Wednesday

[TimberBeast]

Any new thoughts after the 10 pm update?

[BeastMan]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wdsu.com/amp/article/tropical-storm-sally-forecast-to-become-hurricane-today/34009655

[ScoobaDawg]

Winds down to 90mph at 1am update. Possible eyewall replacement cycle underway.
Barely drifting W at 3mph.

Models came into better consensus today as the cone shifted back towards the east. I'm going with closer to the Pass being ground zero. I also believe Sally will strengthen again and push for Cat 3 and end up around 110-115mph winds before making landfall.

The latest models tonight that I put more weight in..at 30 hours (so 1am Wed morning), HMON is offshore still just off Mobile. HWRF is shifting back to Biloxi, while the GFS is in the middle at Pascagoula.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just pulled out of Starkvegas. Sally, I'm coming for you.

[parabrave]

Anyone living in Mobile/ Pasagoula? Vegas dog might need a hang for a Bit.

[starkvegasdawg]

Anyone living in Mobile/ Pasagoula? Vegas dog might need a hang for a Bit.

Right now I'm chillaxing in a Walmart parking lot. This may be where I ride this bitch out.

[parabrave]

Right now I'm chillaxing in a Walmart parking lot. This may be where I ride this bitch out.

There is a great mexican restaurant by you if its still open.

[Jack Lambert]

Everytime I read Hurricane Sally I want to sing "Ride Sally Ride"

[Uncle Ruckus]

Pascagoula?

[parabrave]

Pascagoula?

Yeah he is in the Walmart on 90. Somebody help a brother out over there.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yeah he is in the Walmart on 90. Somebody help a brother out over there.

Getting ready to go track down a cop and see if they'll let me in.

[TimberBeast]

Everytime I read Hurricane Sally I want to sing "Ride Sally Ride"

I keep thinking of ?Lay Down Sally?

[WinningIsRelentless]

Mobile bay is about to take it right in the mouth

[Mobile Bay]

We just got the call....headed to Mobile we were told the beaches across to Destin may be totally destroyed...Dolphin
Island if your there get the hell out now. Being a Federal officer and a FEMA 1st responder has really sucked this year! i have only been home 4 -5 weeks since covid started now theses hurricanes.... Hail State!

LOL, you don't know them old Dauphin Islanders. They don't leave. I rented a house from an old plywood boat shrimper there once. He was born in the house I rented and his wife was born in Bayou La Batre. They stayed for every storm. The only one that even brought water into the house was Fredrick.

Now on the west end, where the tourists go, it's already too late.

[starkvegasdawg]

I have now relocated to Mobile. Sitting in a hospital parking garage. Sadly, no view of water but it is what it is. I'd love to be on the battleship.

[Uncle Ruckus]

Scooba, you said Pass late last night, Stark you thought it was going to still keep moving West.
Do y'all still think this is the case or is it impossible to know wtf is going on since it barely moves and is all over the place

[Commercecomet24]

Looks like this thing could wind up all the way over toward Pensacola crazy!

[starkvegasdawg]

Scooba, you said Pass late last night, Stark you thought it was going to still keep moving West.
Do y'all still think this is the case or is it impossible to know wtf is going on since it barely moves and is all over the place

It keeps shifting east. I'm officially out of guesses on what it's going to do. But I'm not going all the way to Pensacola. Gulf Shores will be about my limit.

[parabrave]

There is one guidance track that has pegged all 4 gulf storms this year. The HMON has been the most consistent in their forecasting with route, timing and veracity. Most entities use the GFS, and european models. But these have been all over the map with their forecasting. HMON has been mobile bay area the entire time. BTW any persons in the mobile area willing to help out their North Mississippi Bro?

[parabrave]

It keeps shifting east. I'm officially out of guesses on what it's going to do. But I'm not going all the way to Pensacola. Gulf Shores will be about my limit.

Hey VDog head to Foley you can hang out at Bucees! Great food and the cleanest bathrooms in the world. Plus thats likely the best bet for Tornadic activity.

[msbulldog]

It keeps shifting east. I'm officially out of guesses on what it's going to do. But I'm not going all the way to Pensacola. Gulf Shores will be about my limit.

I built a couple of beach houses in Gulf shores a few years back. I built them to the Miami-Dade Hurricane code. I don't think they've been tested since. I am curious how well they would stand up to a serious blow.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just had my first tropical storm strength gust here in HQ...the parking garage at Mobile Infirmary Hospital. Winds have ticked up since I've been here. When I first arrived they were 10 gusts to 24. Now they're pretty steady at 20 and gusts close to 40.

[BB30]

Somewhat off topic but can we expect any rain out of this in the GTR?

[Commercecomet24]

Hey VDog head to Foley you can hang out at Bucees! Great food and the cleanest bathrooms in the world. Plus thats likely the best bet for Tornadic activity.

Buccees is pretty cool! Like Cracker Barrel opened a gas station! Just in there last week.

[starkvegasdawg]

Somewhat off topic but can we expect any rain out of this in the GTR?

Very little, if any.

[tenureplan]

a northern Atlanta suburb and already had to get a patio chair out of the yard.

[Uncle Ruckus]

Another question for you guys
My school on the coast is closed because of roads being under water (not on the east side). I would guess the water isn?t going to recede any in the next day with the storm moving so slow. Am I correct? Really want to be in school tomorrow so we can practice and try to play our game Friday. Already cancelled two to Covid

[Commercecomet24]

Is this thing gonna just sit there and spin for eternity? Looks like it's never gonna make landfall

[Uncle Ruckus]

You didn?t know? She?s a coronabro. Instead of 2 more weeks, it?s just wait two more days.

[PCHSDawg]

I'm waiting to see what Sally is going to do here (east of Petal) before I go back to the Appalachian Trail. Any informed opinions on whether it's going to do any damage this far northwest of the storm center?

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest advisory still has winds at 80mph but pressures have dropped. Eye wall is also now intact. May be trying to strengthen again.

[Commercecomet24]

You didn?t know? She?s a coronabro. Instead of 2 more weeks, it?s just wait two more days.

Awesome!!!

[starkvegasdawg]

As night starts to fall the winds are starting to really pick up. Strongest I've measured is only 57mph, but hurricane force winds are being shown on radar just 12 miles to my east.

[Commercecomet24]

As night starts to fall the winds are starting to really pick up. Strongest I've measured is only 57mph, but hurricane force winds are being shown on radar just 12 miles to my east.

Stay safe man!

[Statecoachingblows**]

As night starts to fall the winds are starting to really pick up. Strongest I've measured is only 57mph, but hurricane force winds are being shown on radar just 12 miles to my east.

Still in mobile?

[starkvegasdawg]

Still in mobile?

Yes. I thought about Gulf Shores but shelter is limited and with the tunnel closed I would have had to almost go to Huntsville and back down to get there.

[preachermatt83]

I'm waiting to see what Sally is going to do here (east of Petal) before I go back to the Appalachian Trail. Any informed opinions on whether it's going to do any damage this far northwest of the storm center?

Where you at PCHS dawg. I’m east of Petal. About 5 miles to be precise. In the massive metropolitan area of Runnelstown

[Statecoachingblows**]

Yes. I thought about Gulf Shores but shelter is limited and with the tunnel closed I would have had to almost go to Huntsville and back down to get there.

I hear ya, stay safe bud!

[Mobile Bay]

Yes. I thought about Gulf Shores but shelter is limited and with the tunnel closed I would have had to almost go to Huntsville and back down to get there.


You could take the Africatown bridge or the Wallace Tunnel. Only the Bankhead is closed. Or go about 15 minutes north of Spanish Fort and come down I-65 over the Dolly Parton bridge.

[starkvegasdawg]

Starting to see power flashes now.

[ScoobaDawg]

Yes. I thought about Gulf Shores but shelter is limited and with the tunnel closed I would have had to almost go to Huntsville and back down to get there.

Stay safe bud, looks to be strengthening a little again...and after all that rain over the past day.. those hurricane plus winds coming on shore... lots of tress gonna come down.

[Noxdog]

Stay safe bud, looks to be strengthening a little again...and after all that rain over the past day.. those hurricane plus winds coming on shore... lots of tress gonna come down.

Do we know where yet weather Dawgs?

[starkvegasdawg]

Do we know where yet weather Dawgs?

Gulf Shores looking like the lottery winner at the moment.

[starkvegasdawg]

Stay safe bud, looks to be strengthening a little again...and after all that rain over the past day.. those hurricane plus winds coming on shore... lots of tress gonna come down.

Back up to 90mph. Around 56 is strongest I've had at my location.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just got rocked by a 65mph gust.

[TimberBeast]

Seeing what?s going on in Gulf Shores it looks like we dodged a bullet on the MS Coast. We came back down to OS tonight and didn?t have any weather to speak of on the way from Jackson. The wind is kicking up pretty good right now though.

[Commercecomet24]

I've got family in Daphne, Fairhope and Silverhill. They all still have power, for now. No damage yet either.

[starkvegasdawg]

I've got family in Daphne, Fairhope and Silverhill. They all still have power, for now. No damage yet either.

I haven't seen any damage reports. Just a lot of video of storm surge over roads. Spann reported 20,000 no power in the Mobile area so that confirms I was seeing power flashes.

All that said, this storm is really getting its act together so the worst is yet to come.

[parabrave]

Streaming some Chasers in GS/OB. Water crossing 98 now.

[parabrave]

If anyone is still up there is a site Tornado Alley is streaming live in GS. Somebody needs ro give him a valium though. Another guy is streaming from Dauphin Island marina. Getting some goods vids from him.

[parabrave]

120 winds south of OB.

[parabrave]

Eye wall hitting now.

[PCHSDawg]

Where you at PCHS dawg. I’m east of Petal. About 5 miles to be precise. In the massive metropolitan area of RunnelstownI am 5 miles north of you, just off 29 on Whitfield Rd.

[Commercecomet24]

Well so much for the no damage. All my family down there have roof damage, water damage and fences gone. They are all ok though. Most roads flooded or impassible. Bad stuff. 3 of them work for Baldwin County Sheriff dept so they busy today.

[Commercecomet24]

My daughter in laws from Pensacola. Her mom and dad lost their porch and part of their roof. Part of the new bridge in Pensacola has collapsed.

[msbulldog]

A tour of Gulf Shores from a chaser this morning. He had a shot of one of the houses I built and it looks like it came through with no damage. It's about 100 yds from the gulf across the road on the pass.

www.pscp.tv/w/cjCikTFlV0V5QVB3a2JnRUF8MXJteFBZUWdWTkxLTkfqi83TUG DQOUnJbrZ0nTASOCGEKu-4GDEN9JWUIZRt?t=15m51s