Something to watch in the tropics - TD 19 off FL

[starkvegasdawg]

A tropical wave over the Bahamas has now been given a 70% chance to become a tropical system over the weekend. It could approach the Biloxi / NOLA area early next week as a minimal hurricane.

[Cooterpoot]

17 you 2020!!

[Commercecomet24]

How minimal?

[basedog]

I just got home from Texas working the Hurricane, we still have Logistics sites setup in LC.

Here you go Cc24
Disturbance 44 is now located across the Bahamas. This disturbance is moving to the west at 15 mph. It is very disorganized and the environmental conditions are currently only marginally favorable at best for development. The trough looks to move into Florida from today into tonight and then into the eastern Gulf on Saturday before turning to the northwest into the northeastern Gulf from Sunday into Monday. Once the disturbance gets into the eastern Gulf, the environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable. Therefore, the chance of tropical development is now 40 percent.

[ScoobaDawg]

How minimal?

Here's how you find out. Take your pistol and a deck of cards.
Throw the cards in the air, shot a single card. Whatever that card is...will represent the last number of the wind speed. Now look for the next card you seeing face up.. the very next one. that's the first digit of the speed.
Then look for a Face card. Think Jack - Cat 1, and so on till Ace - Cat 4. If you get the joker card... well it is 2020 and you should just go back inside and know the world is ending.

[ScoobaDawg]

But for real... this is what SVD is talking about... from last night. there are now 2 named storms (fish storms) and a chance of 4 more Tropical disturbances formed in next 5 days.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1304207813376380929

But the thing for the gulf to watch is the one right of east FL, it's now been upgraded to 70% in the last 2 hours.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1304442908498513921

[starkvegasdawg]

One wind strength forecast had most of the models in the 70-85mph range, but until it actually forms and gets in the Gulf then nobody knows for sure. Working in our favor is it will have to go over FL which will do it no favors and then it won't have but s couple days over water. Working against us is that water is hot tub quality.

[SheltonChoked]

Here's how you find out. Take your pistol and a deck of cards.
Throw the cards in the air, shot a single card. Whatever that card is...will represent the last number of the wind speed. Now look for the next card you seeing face up.. the very next one. that's the first digit of the speed.
Then look for a Face card. Think Jack - Cat 1, and so on till Ace - Cat 4. If you get the joker card... well it is 2020 and you should just go back inside and know the world is ending.


Does this just work for 2020 or all the time?

Are the results the same if all I have are Uno cards?

[ScoobaDawg]

Invest 96L what could possible be Sally

First models have run. Euro brings it into the fl panhandle at 72 hours as a tropical storm and rides the gulf coast west into New Orleans after 3 days.

Ships models are showing borderline cat 1.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1304486147566043136

[ScoobaDawg]

One wind strength forecast had most of the models in the 70-85mph range, but until it actually forms and gets in the Gulf then nobody knows for sure. Working in our favor is it will have to go over FL which will do it no favors and then it won't have but s couple days over water. Working against us is that water is hot tub quality.

Little shear either.. but yep... short amount of time to ramp up and deepen.

[Johnson85]

Here's how you find out. Take your pistol and a deck of cards.
Throw the cards in the air, shot a single card. Whatever that card is...will represent the last number of the wind speed. Now look for the next card you seeing face up.. the very next one. that's the first digit of the speed.
Then look for a Face card. Think Jack - Cat 1, and so on till Ace - Cat 4. If you get the joker card... well it is 2020 and you should just go back inside and know the world is ending.

That forecast method seems shoddy to me. You are very likely to get conflicting results where your two digits for windspeed leave you with <100 mph winds but then pull a face card that describes a Cat 3 or Cat 4, whose lowest max wind speeds are >100mph. Just seems like an obviously bad model.**

[Commercecomet24]

Here's how you find out. Take your pistol and a deck of cards.
Throw the cards in the air, shot a single card. Whatever that card is...will represent the last number of the wind speed. Now look for the next card you seeing face up.. the very next one. that's the first digit of the speed.
Then look for a Face card. Think Jack - Cat 1, and so on till Ace - Cat 4. If you get the joker card... well it is 2020 and you should just go back inside and know the world is ending.

That's funny I don't care who you are!

I've been keeping up with things on the nhc site and it seems like every time I check there's a new wave or disturbance. 2020 has been a witch!

[BrunswickDawg]

That's funny I don't care who you are!

I've been keeping up with things on the nhc site and it seems like every time I check there's a new wave or disturbance. 2020 has been a witch!

Meh. I've been in the barrel 3 of the last 4 years starin' down storms like Lt. Dan. Bout time y'all MS Coast Rats take a turn.****

[starkvegasdawg]

Now a depression. Forecast is to remain a tropical storm and make landfall around Biloxi Tuesday afternoon.

[msbulldog]

Meh. I've been in the barrel 3 of the last 4 years starin' down storms like Lt. Dan. Bout time y'all MS Coast Rats take a turn.****

We had our share!

[ScoobaDawg]

LA Nina is setup to stay... Tropics aren't gonna die off for a while longer... And gonna be a warm winter.

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3457447001

[starkvegasdawg]

LA Nina is setup to stay... Tropics aren't gonna die off for a while longer... And gonna be a warm winter.

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3457447001

Afraid you're right. Keep waiting for an El Ni?o to ramp up the spring severe weather season. La Ni?a can be a kick to the sack for that.

Guy on my chase team has read something from nhc where they were all but saying this will end up a hurricane. If it can come across FL reasonably intact I tend to agree.

[parabrave]

Hey SVD give me a call on where you want to set up. Monday the Boat parade will be in full swing. Got the best site available to film it.

[ScoobaDawg]

Afraid you're right. Keep waiting for an El Ni?o to ramp up the spring severe weather season. La Ni?a can be a kick to the sack for that.

Guy on my chase team has read something from nhc where they were all but saying this will end up a hurricane. If it can come across FL reasonably intact I tend to agree.

Very much depends what happens over likely next 12-24 hours. The llc is very far north of the convection and the mlc. If the mlc pulls itself down to the surface, then the storm might stay offshore and go thru the straits of Florida. If that happens a lot more likely becomes a hurricane. Will have to deal with a good bit of shear for the next 24 hours.


https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1304588203844939777?s=19

https://twitter.com/ray_hawthorne/status/1304597675845783552?s=19

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey SVD give me a call on where you want to set up. Monday the Boat parade will be in full swing. Got the best site available to film it.

Will do. As of now I am planning on being down. Probably leave Monday when I get off work. Probably means I'd miss the onset of tropical form storm winds. One thing of note...with the current track that would put the entire MS coast in the right front quadrant for a prolonged time so there will be a definitive tornado risk for a long time.

[Red Clay Hills]

SV / Scooba - The wife and I are supposed to head to Gulf Shores from east central MS on Sunday morning. We were supposed to go first week of May but then we got the Rona. This is the reschedule date.....time for the obligatory question - I know we will likely be enjoying a tropical system Sunday night through Tuesday but is it safe to go? Or maybe have a better idea tomorrow evening ?

[starkvegasdawg]

SV / Scooba - The wife and I are supposed to head to Gulf Shores from east central MS on Sunday morning. We were supposed to go first week of May but then we got the Rona. This is the reschedule date.....time for the obligatory question - I know we will likely be enjoying a tropical system Sunday night through Tuesday but is it safe to go? Or maybe have a better idea tomorrow evening ?

It should be safe as it looks now. Windy and rainy but safe. The only caveat to that is stay out of the water. Rip currents and waves will be hell. We were down there a few years ago on a vacation when a tropical storm was in the area and a guy drowned. We were eating supper watching the coast guard helicopter go back and forth looking for him.

[Red Clay Hills]

It should be safe as it looks now. Windy and rainy but safe. The only caveat to that is stay out of the water. Rip currents and waves will be hell. We were down there a few years ago on a vacation when a tropical storm was in the area and a guy drowned. We were eating supper watching the coast guard helicopter go back and forth looking for him.

Dang that's rough. I'm not that brave, though. Hopefully the condo owner won't roll down the protector over the balcony sliding glass door. I've never seen angry waves like that. I want to see the storm if I'm going to be in it right on the beach lol.

[starkvegasdawg]

Looking at the latest radar it appears banding is starting to form around the center. Could be a sign what will become Sally is starting to try and organize. Will be making landfall south of Miami. That's potentially significant as it will primarily be crossing swampland with lots of water and very few tall buildings to act like hills to disrupt wind flow. All that to say moving across FL may do very little to weaken the storm.

[parabrave]

Will do. As of now I am planning on being down. Probably leave Monday when I get off work. Probably means I'd miss the onset of tropical form storm winds. One thing of note...with the current track that would put the entire MS coast in the right front quadrant for a prolonged time so there will be a definitive tornado risk for a long time.

Ill take some good vids for ya.

[starkvegasdawg]

Some of the models are starting to intensify what will become Sally. Yesterday, most had it as a strong tropical storm and a couple as a hurricane. Today most have it as hurricane and a couple going up to cat 2.

[starkvegasdawg]

Storm now forecast to become a hurricane before landfall Tuesday morning.

[parabrave]

HMRF forecasting 121KTS as it makes it's day long landfall/

[ScoobaDawg]

SV / Scooba - The wife and I are supposed to head to Gulf Shores from east central MS on Sunday morning. We were supposed to go first week of May but then we got the Rona. This is the reschedule date.....time for the obligatory question - I know we will likely be enjoying a tropical system Sunday night through Tuesday but is it safe to go? Or maybe have a better idea tomorrow evening ?

Morning.. just saw this. I gotta tell ya... unless you like watching rain fall might want to reschedule again.. sorry.

[parabrave]

Hey Scooba/SVD I just satw the 3 different models, all updated to 60 hrs out, and the main 3 were so widely different none of them backed each other. GFS has it going into Grand Isle as a TS. HMRF has it now going int Shell Beach as a 969 low. The HMON has Mobile. But the only similarity is the tracks have moved about 30 mile west and on more of a northward pattern that a meandering west one. It's screwing with SVDs planning.

[Red Clay Hills]

Morning.. just saw this. I gotta tell ya... unless you like watching rain fall might want to reschedule again.. sorry.

Might give the condo owner a call today and see what my options are for reschedule. I don't necessarily mind the rain or wind as we just need to get away for a week. I wouldn't mind watching some rough seas from the condo, even. But I don't want to get into a spot where we are stuck in the condo with the storm shield (roll up door) over the balcony glass and we are just walled in. Or even worse with no power or in a dangerous situation.

[starkvegasdawg]

Might give the condo owner a call today and see what my options are for reschedule. I don't necessarily mind the rain or wind as we just need to get away for a week. I wouldn't mind watching some rough seas from the condo, even. But I don't want to get into a spot where we are stuck in the condo with the storm shield (roll up door) over the balcony glass and we are just walled in. Or even worse with no power or in a dangerous situation.

You pull a Lt Dan and charter a fishing boat and get out about 10 miles offshore and start saying "You call this a storm?"

[ScoobaDawg]

OK rch. I'm changing after reviewing some things this morning.
I would contact your guy and ask deadlines. Models are more west this morning.. But if it gets stronger that makes it turn more north faster than drifting west. Lots to watch but it's barely went across the land today looks like.. So that means it's in better shape earlier which likely means stronger...

[Uncle Ruckus]

Where are we looking at a landfall? I?ve seen grand isle to mobile.

[starkvegasdawg]

We now officially have Sally. Landfall is still forecast for MS/LA line.

[ScoobaDawg]

Big difference between models intensity from earlier (i'm catching up on everything) hmon and hwrf (which has been doing pretty good closer to landfall) are looking at it bombing out in the gulf and getting closer to a cat 3 and landing from the mouth of mobile bay to gulfport / bay st louis. Should know a lot more this evening with the newest model runs... everyone on the coast needs to stay aware.

[ScoobaDawg]

1pm cst update when upgraded to ts sally

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1304865207550963717

[parabrave]

Land fall somewhere between The Bay and Buras then going North then northeast around Hattiesburg. Forecasting 80mph winds in Gulfport/Biloxi with 5-8 ft surge above ground.

[starkvegasdawg]

Land fall somewhere between The Bay and Buras then going North then northeast around Hattiesburg. Forecasting 80mph winds in Gulfport/Biloxi with 5-8 ft surge above ground.

I'm not sure it won't be stronger.

[parabrave]

I'm not sure it won't be stronger.

Just saw the HMRF it now traveling west over the Swamps south of NO then turning north around Homua then heading up 55/ They reduced the surge from 8-6 ft in GPT/BIX.

[Red Clay Hills]

OK rch. I'm changing after reviewing some things this morning.
I would contact your guy and ask deadlines. Models are more west this morning.. But if it gets stronger that makes it turn more north faster than drifting west. Lots to watch but it's barely went across the land today looks like.. So that means it's in better shape earlier which likely means stronger...

Condo owner is a great guy. He let us move the date at no extra fee. This is after we already moved it in May due to coronavirus. We will try it again later and hope for better weather.... think we may hit Pigeon Forge area for a few days next week instead. Thanks for the info SVD and Scooba !

[Uncle Ruckus]

Where is our update? You guys are more accurate than these tv goons

[parabrave]

Where is our update? You guys are more accurate than these tv goons


don't be anywhere between Gulfport and Grand Isle. The models keep shifting every hour but the NHC is starting to go with the GFS which has it going up between Grand Island and SW pass then up to NO.

[Uncle Ruckus]

You mean Hancock County, where I live?

[ScoobaDawg]

Where is our update? You guys are more accurate than these tv goons

We do sleep also.. and then need some time to analyze the updates.. and not just from one source.

To start with..the most important parts. If you are on the coast of east LA or the MS/ Bama gulf coast... Take note. this storm might not spin up to a higher hurricane category in the end, but there will be big time surge, and with the angle of the landfall (moving NW) and the coastline, it will intensify the storm surge amount. Add to that the likely Hurricane will CONTINUE to strengthen as making landfall at an EXTREMELY slow speed... adds up to not good things and MUST be watched. Massive Surge, Flash Flooding, and tornadoes possibly.

Now some notes...
7am update had TS Sally at 50mph. New 10am update has winds now up to 60mph. There is shear out of the NW that has been keeping the storm from developing while off the coast of FL but that shear is degrading fast.
Landfall is thought to occur around 8pm Monday with the middle of the cone currently being around the area of the mouth of the MS.

Hurricane warnings have just been issued for the ms gulf coast and part of LA.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ehzri31UcAInVEH.png

https://i.imgur.com/63sDD7D.png

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1305128739534262273

[parabrave]

You mean Hancock County, where I live?

Yep.

[Littleman]

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_ef11d27a-f5b6-11ea-8c9a-13d084ff06c0.html

[starkvegasdawg]

Starting to see some grumblings that Sally May be making an eastward shift in track putting MS back in the crosshairs for a landfall location. This afternoon I had all but written off chasing, but if that happens then I'll be making a record setting storm chase prep and booking it south tomorrow.

[BeastMan]

Local Baton Rouge news reported its slightly changed track to more east. MS seems to be under the gun even the east side

[starkvegasdawg]

We now officially have a track change by the nhc. Landfall looks to be around 7:00pm Tuesday evening around Bay St Louis...assuming it doesn't change again. If this holds tomorrow then I'm heading south.

[BeastMan]

We now officially have a track change by the nhc. Landfall looks to be around 7:00pm Tuesday evening around Bay St Louis...assuming it doesn't change again. If this holds tomorrow then I'm heading south.

Damn. Hancock Co hang in there

[starkvegasdawg]

NHC saying track may have to be adjusted further east overnight. Lot of factors coming into play to determine where she ends up. However, biggest thing of concern is the thinking forward speeds slow down. This may end up being a prolific rainmaker for somebody.

[ScoobaDawg]

10pm update. shear is dissipating and convection is exploding, and eye wall has formed but is still open to the SW per last recon plane pass.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh2AknoWoAAlqen.png

[TimberBeast]

10pm update. shear is dissipating and convection is exploding, and eye wall has formed but is still open to the SW per last recon plane pass.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh2AknoWoAAlqen.png

What are the chances it becomes larger than a cat 2? Is it even still projected to reach cat 2?

[ScoobaDawg]

What are the chances it becomes larger than a cat 2? Is it even still projected to reach cat 2?

Cat 2 very possible. Cat 3 Not very likely. Even if it undergoes RI tomorrow, that would be 35 mph over 24 hours which puts you up to 95 (9 is cat 2). It would need another 15mph to get to cat3.
The path has slowed down so it's possible but it would really need to get things in order overnight.. which it has started.

[TimberBeast]

Cat 2 very possible. Cat 3 Not very likely. Even if it undergoes RI tomorrow, that would be 35 mph over 24 hours which puts you up to 95 (9 is cat 2). It would need another 15mph to get to cat3.
The path has slowed down so it's possible but it would really need to get things in order overnight.. which it has started.

What?s your opinion on the track? Shifting more eastward towards the MS Coast or more towards NOLA? We?re trying to figure out whether or not to stay put tomorrow on the east MS coast. I know it?s not exact but I trust yalls input more than most.

[starkvegasdawg]

What?s your opinion on the track? Shifting more eastward towards the MS Coast or more towards NOLA? We?re trying to figure out whether or not to stay put tomorrow on the east MS coast. I know it?s not exact but I trust yalls input more than most.

Lot of variables in play now. But nhc is thinking a shift further east is possible. Hopefully, know more when we wake up in the morning.

[Littleman]

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_bc64d506-f62a-11ea-9a10-f7364bb7596d.html

[TimberBeast]

https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_bc64d506-f62a-11ea-9a10-f7364bb7596d.html

Yeah thanks for that, any updates would be great

[Johnson85]

Damn. Hancock Co hang in there

Going to be interesting to see what happens with this storm and hancock county. Lots of low lying areas, but those low lying areas were mostly wiped out by Katrina, and anybody that didn't rebuild before they redid the firm maps should be fine. Should be mostly stuff inland and upriver that gets flood damage. Those are the structures that survived Katrina enough that people got in and repaired them before the new FIRM maps.

[ScoobaDawg]

Morning update...Sally only strengthened 5 mph over night, and is not looking much better this morning yet. That likely means Cat 3 is off the table and cat 2 is max.
Pressure was 994mb's but a pass in the last few moments observed 991... very possibly will be a hurricane at next update.
Some minor flooding has already started on the gulf coast.

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1305513547703738370

[ScoobaDawg]

One thing to note that will need to addressed in this next update... the eye location has shifted over the past 2 hours. the strong convective bursts that formed last night won overall instead of being pulled down to the current eye. This COULD POSSIBLY shift the track further east, but will wait to see.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1305506022388363265

[starkvegasdawg]

I'll be heading down that direction late this evening or overnight. Right now I'm looking at Gulfport if track stays as currently forecast.

[parabrave]

The HMON has been forecasting a Pascagoula/Bayou la Batre land fall since yesterday. The NHC tract has shifted east to reflect this. Landfall around the entrance to Biloxi Back Bay. Keep going east .

[parabrave]

Oh yeah 3 foot high tide this morning. in the yard and over the pier in Big Lake.

[BeastMan]

Oh yeah 3 foot high tide this morning. in the yard and over the pier in Big Lake.

Damn. My buddy in OS just called and said there was the most water in all the small bayous he’s ever seen.

[parabrave]

Damn. My buddy in OS just called and said there was the most water in all the small bayous he’s ever seen.

Well the tide was going to be higher than normal anyway today. Hope it keeps going east though.

[BeastMan]

Well the tide was going to be higher than normal anyway today. Hope it keeps going east though.

He just sent me some pics from Fort Bayou around Mikey’s and it pretty damn high. Over the dock at Mikey’s all parking lots totally flooded. Hopedale Marina, south of Nola in St Bernard, has 3 update videos on their Instagram. Wild seeing how they all move the trailers and boats to the highway. Whole thing lined with nothing but trailers.

[BeastMan]

Mikey’s
https://i.postimg.cc/j29VG6gk/BFF704-C8-A709-4630-8660-AB74715-AAEC2.jpg

St Bernard parish
https://i.postimg.cc/sx1d6Hch/B87-F9715-C97-F-4-F5-C-B8-C4-DFF886-F8-E4-DA.png

[Uncle Ruckus]

So, are we thinking Hancock Co may not be getting much of it anymore since there is hardly anything on the west side of the storm?

[FISHDAWG]

Man I miss those $5 oysters @ Mikeys

[TimberBeast]

We live on a small bayou in ocean springs and our pier already has water on it, not completely under yet. I?m about to head over towards mikeys and check it out.

[ScoobaDawg]

Well that changed quick... now a hurricane and 85mph. Pressure down to 985.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh41JFiUMAAUFyv.png

[Johnson85]

So, are we thinking Hancock Co may not be getting much of it anymore since there is hardly anything on the west side of the storm?

If it follows the current centerline from NHC, that is correct. Still get some surge, but shouldn't be bad with the rain. Still a chance all of MS could miss the weather, especially if it pulls a Marco.

[parabrave]

Well that changed quick... now a hurricane and 85mph. Pressure down to 985.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh41JFiUMAAUFyv.png

Now the GFS and the HMRF have it going south of Goula than Heading due north up the Pascagoula river. The official track has it hitting Breton than Beelining to the Bix Ocean Spring Bridge. Need the GFS and HRWF to be accurate.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm certainly not an expert but watching the future radar looks like it's heading up through Pascagoula/mobile area. Any of the real experts on here have thoughts on that?

[TimberBeast]

I'm certainly not an expert but watching the future radar looks like it's heading up through Pascagoula/mobile area. Any of the real experts on here have thoughts on that?

I surely wouldn?t have any problem with that.

[Commercecomet24]

I surely wouldn?t have any problem with that.

Me either. While I don't live on the coast, i don't want to be on the east side of this thing where all the tornadoes and heavy stuff are. Don't need any trees crashing through my house. That happened during Camille and Katrina so I've seen enough of that lol!

[BrunswickDawg]

Well the tide was going to be higher than normal anyway today. Hope it keeps going east though.

Is it time for normal "spring tides" or flood tides? When Irma hit here, it was during our flood tide period and flooding was significantly more than during Michael the year before.

[ScoobaDawg]

Update 11am was actually up to 90...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh47Ur5U4AMpWWa.png

[ScoobaDawg]

I'm certainly not an expert but watching the future radar looks like it's heading up through Pascagoula/mobile area. Any of the real experts on here have thoughts on that?

Still unknown, but as it gets stronger that will pull it more north faster vs drifting west. The new hurricane models both have a landfall closer to the ms/al line.

[msbulldog]

Me either. While I don't live on the coast, i don't want to be on the east side of this thing where all the tornadoes and heavy stuff are. Don't need any trees crashing through my house. That happened during Camille and Katrina so I've seen enough of that lol!

Just saw it, Laura got to West Monroe as a Cat 1 and we were on the east. A couple of houses in the neighborhood has trees on them.

[Commercecomet24]

Still unknown, but as it gets stronger that will pull it more north faster vs drifting west. The new hurricane models both have a landfall closer to the ms/al line.

Thanks always appreciate y'all's info!

[Commercecomet24]

Just saw it, Laura got to West Monroe as a Cat 1 and we were on the east. A couple of houses in the neighborhood has trees on them.

Yeah it sucks! Hearing those trees snap and the crashing sound is something you never forget!

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1305579836962865157

[parabrave]

Dam checkout the Track Guidance models on Trop Tidbits. every single one is Bama state line eastward. This is the 1600Z run so it's the latest.

[BeastMan]

Dam checkout the Track Guidance models on Trop Tidbits. every single one is Bama state line eastward. This is the 1600Z run so it's the latest.

Well prayers for the Bama guys but that’s pretty ideal for MS. The West side of this storm looks not too bad all things considered

[parabrave]

Well prayers for the Bama guys but that’s pretty ideal for MS. The West side of this storm looks not too bad all things considered

Got Water still in my yard in Biloxi. I sent SVD a few videos hopefully he can post them if he gets a chance

[ScoobaDawg]

4pm update it's now cat 2 at 100mph

it's now ingesting some dry air.
It's hard to known when Sally will make her big turn north then ne instead of just wnw. That will determine where the eye lands but more model consensus looks like it will be closer to the ms/al border instead of hancock county. This would also reduce how far inland flooding would occur in MS especially with a weaker west side of the storm.

But still keep a close eye. wherever it lands of course will have the highest surge on the right side of the storm.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh57LyyWkAc3e0a.png

[IMAREBL2 AND A DAWG]

Here's how you find out. Take your pistol and a deck of cards.
Throw the cards in the air, shot a single card. Whatever that card is...will represent the last number of the wind speed. Now look for the next card you seeing face up.. the very next one. that's the first digit of the speed.
Then look for a Face card. Think Jack - Cat 1, and so on till Ace - Cat 4. If you get the joker card... well it is 2020 and you should just go back inside and know the world is ending.

Ugh! I missed on my first shot. Will the follow up shot count