Projected 2-deep

[KOdawg1]

Had time on my hands and wanted to talk football, so here's my projected starting line-up and the first ones off the bench. Feel free to disagree or create your own if you wish.

QB:

KJ Costello....Will Rogers

RB:

Kylin Hill....Jo'Quavious Marks

WR:

Outside:

Osirus Mitchell....Tyrell Shavers

Malik Heath....Tulu Griffin (think he's starting by the end of the year either here or the slot)

Slot:

Javonta Payton....Geor'quarius Spivey

Austin Williams....Rufus Harvey


OL:

LT- Charles Cross....Scott Lashley
LG- Dareuan Parker....Laquinston Sharp
C- Cole Smith....Laquinston Sharp/James Jackson
RG- Greg Eiland....Nick Pendley
RT- Dolla Bill....Scott Lashley/Greg Eiland

DL:

DE-
Kobe Jones....Aaron Odom
Marquiss Spencer....Jack Harris/Jaden Crumedy (can play both DE and DT)

DT-
Nathan Pickering....Jaden Crumedy

LB:

MLB- Errol Thompson....Tyrus Wheat

OLB- Aaron Brule....Nate Watson

Rush/Edge- Jordan Davis....Tre Lawson

CB:

Martin Emerson....Esaias Furdge

Emmanuel Forbes....Malik Sanders/Kyle Cass (once he gets passed the learning curve)

S:

FS- Marcus Murphy....Shawn Preston

SS- Collin Duncan....Janari Dean/Landon Guidry

Dog- Fred Peters....JP Purvis

[KOdawg1]

Observations from just looking at it laid out.

Our offensive line looks very good on paper. How they handle pass blocking 50 times a game remains to be seen, but the depth, experience and talent is there.

Our front six/seven won't be terrible. I'm not entirely confident in our back-up DE's, but the starters should be solid.

The safeties have talent. Just very little experience. There will be growing pains here, but I think they'll show flashes

CB will be a shit show. No way around it.

[Uncle Ruckus]

Had time on my hands and wanted to talk football, so here's my projected starting line-up and the first ones off the bench. Feel free to disagree or create your own if you wish.

QB:

KJ Costello....Will Rogers

RB:

Kylin Hill....Jo'Quavious Marks

WR:

Outside:

Osirus Mitchell....Tyrell Shavers

Malik Heath....Tulu Griffin (think he's starting by the end of the year either here or the slot)

Slot:

Javonta Payton....Geor'quarius Spivey

Austin Williams....Rufus Harvey


OL:

LT- Charles Cross....Scott Lashley
LG- Dareuan Parker....Laquinston Sharp
C- Cole Smith....Laquinston Sharp/James Jackson
RG- Greg Eiland....Nick Pendley
RT- Dolla Bill....Scott Lashley/Greg Eiland

DL:

DE-
Kobe Jones....Aaron Odom
Marquiss Spencer....Jack Harris/Jaden Crumedy (can play both DE and DT)

DT-
Nathan Pickering....Jaden Crumedy

LB:

MLB- Errol Thompson....Tyrus Wheat

OLB- Aaron Brule....Nate Watson

Rush/Edge- Jordan Davis....Tre Lawson

CB:

Martin Emerson....Esaias Furdge

Emmanuel Forbes....Malik Sanders/Kyle Cass (once he gets passed the learning curve)

S:

FS- Marcus Murphy....Shawn Preston

SS- Collin Duncan....Janari Dean/Landon Guidry

Dog- Fred Peters....JP Purvis

Parker RG
Eiland LG
Crumedy DT
Bookie backing up Errol and Bruhle
Wheat backup SAM
Furdge CB
Tulu will take Williams spot soon and him or Heath will move inside

[Hambone]

Who is Boogie?

[Uncle Ruckus]

Typo. Bookie.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Offense

QB - Costello/Shrader or Rogers

RB - Hill/Marks

WR - Mitchell/Shavers

WR - Heath/Tulu

WR - Payton/Spivey

WR - Williams/Cumbest

LT - Cross/Lashley

LG - Eiland/Sharp

C - Smith/Jackson

RG - Parker/Pendley

RT - Dolla/Lashley

Defense

DE - Kobe/Harris

NG - Crumedy/Pickering

DE - Spencer/Odom

Hybrid - Davis/Wheat

MLB - Errol/Watson

WLB - Brule/Watson

CB - Emerson/Sanders

CB - Furdge or Forbes

Dog - Murphy/Purvis

FS - Peters/Guidry

SS - Duncan/Preston

[Bdawg]

Crumedy over Pickering, huh. Is that good or bad? Has Crumedy stepped up a lot or is Pickering not showing out. Though the was an NFL talent right now.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Crumedy over Pickering, huh. Is that good or bad? Has Crumedy stepped up a lot or is Pickering not showing out. Though the was an NFL talent right now.

Both of those guys are future NFL players.

[Commercecomet24]

Both of those guys are future NFL players.

And they're both gonna play a lot so I don't think it matters that much who's listed 1 or 2.

[Bdawg]

Both of those guys are future NFL players.

Good deal. Just seems like Pickering has had more hype associated with him.

[Coach34]

5 wins gonna be tough to get.

[Bdawg]

5 wins gonna be tough to get.

It is. But it's a possibility. Hope our O clicks. Defense scares me.

[Hambone]

Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)

There is a good chance for us to get 5.

I will not be super shocked if we don’t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)

[Jarius]

Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)

There is a good chance for us to get 5.

I will not be super shocked if we don’t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)

The egg bowl is a tossup and so is kentucky. We can win those 5 and honestly should but the % on the egg bowl ain’t that.

[Coach34]

It is. But it's a possibility. Hope our O clicks. Defense scares me.

Our OL should be pretty good, QB and RB will be solid...WR is middle of the pack at best. Defense will be a train wreck. Beating Kentucky would be an upset at their place. Mizzou has a solid team returning. We have a shot at Mississippi and vs Auburn- I just dont think we are good enough defensively to pull it off. A&M will beat us by 10+. They are the 4th best team in the SEC

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Our OL should be pretty good, QB and RB will be solid...WR is middle of the pack at best. Defense will be a train wreck. Beating Kentucky would be an upset at their place. Mizzou has a solid team returning. We have a shot at Mississippi and vs Auburn- I just dont think we are good enough defensively to pull it off. A&M will beat us by 10+. They are the 4th best team in the SEC

Defense stay healthy we win 5.

[Coach34]

Defense stay healthy we win 5.

teams always have injuries and the layoff likely ends up producing more than usual. Defense will be Sirmon bad

[Jarius]

teams always have injuries and the layoff likely ends up producing more than usual. Defense will be Sirmon bad

As bad as that defense was we would have went 7-5 that year with competent offense. We lost the South Alabama and BYU games because we were incompetent offensively. We also could have beaten LSU that year with a competent offense.

[1bigdawg]

Teams with really good, experienced OLs tend to do better than expected. I believe we have one.

[Hambone]

That’s what I don’t get either. Yes, the defense may be suspect this year, but it isn’t like we haven’t been recruiting well on the defensive side. And almost every single person expects the offense to be good this year. We literally have never seen what we are about to see on the offensive side of the ball at this school. IF the newcomers on defense produce then we will be ok. Great thing about this year is no one expects us to do anything. Isn’t that typically when we have our better seasons?

I remember Brian Hadad having a fit before the 2014 season because we were picked 6th in the West however Dak was a preseason all sec QB. KJ is going to destroy Daks passing records playing 2 less games.

I may have a huge amount of egg on my face after this year but I’m just not as doom and gloom as others.

[HailStateSZN19]

teams always have injuries and the layoff likely ends up producing more than usual. Defense will be Sirmon bad

The defense will not be Sirmon bad.

[Hot Rock]

Our OL should be pretty good, QB and RB will be solid...WR is middle of the pack at best. Defense will be a train wreck. Beating Kentucky would be an upset at their place. Mizzou has a solid team returning. We have a shot at Mississippi and vs Auburn- I just dont think we are good enough defensively to pull it off. A&M will beat us by 10+. They are the 4th best team in the SEC

I know you are a coach and have more insight than I ever will on football, but I think you are missing a key point. Leach is here, any thoughts of way the game has been played for all our lives is gone. So many do not believe in this spread 'em out system and it's methodology or they say our defense stinks. Leach just wins, even vs better talented teams. This year will be no different. I say that State's WR group will have the best year of any group in the SEC and everyone will say, dang those guys were good all along and it's only going to get better with more talent coming. Leach knows how to get guys the ball and make teams defend the entire field.

This is not only not your father's Mississippi State, this won't resemble what we think of as our Mississippi State. They win at least 5 games and maybe 7 with a future that is crazy bright. Just watch...

I am concerned what practicing vs passing all day long everyday does to a defense but hey... They gotta stop us now too.

[Johnson85]

That?s what I don?t get either. Yes, the defense may be suspect this year, but it isn?t like we haven?t been recruiting well on the defensive side. And almost every single person expects the offense to be good this year. We literally have never seen what we are about to see on the offensive side of the ball at this school. IF the newcomers on defense produce then we will be ok. Great thing about this year is no one expects us to do anything. Isn?t that typically when we have our better seasons?

I remember Brian Hadad having a fit before the 2014 season because we were picked 6th in the West however Dak was a preseason all sec QB. KJ is going to destroy Daks passing records playing 2 less games.

I may have a huge amount of egg on my face after this year but I?m just not as doom and gloom as others.


Do they? I am not expecting that. I'm hoping for that, but I don't think in the past Leach has turned out miraculous changes in the offense in year one. We certainly have more talent than he usually has to work with, but the defenses we play will be better week in and week out than Leach has ever had to deal with. And even though we could be very strong at QB, OL, and RB, we are particularly weak at WR. I think we'd be better off if our position groups were more balanced.

[ShotgunDawg]

teams always have injuries and the layoff likely ends up producing more than usual. Defense will be Sirmon bad

Only way we have a Sirmon defense is if Arnett sucks

[Jarius]

Do they? I am not expecting that. I'm hoping for that, but I don't think in the past Leach has turned out miraculous changes in the offense in year one. We certainly have more talent than he usually has to work with, but the defenses we play will be better week in and week out than Leach has ever had to deal with. And even though we could be very strong at QB, OL, and RB, we are particularly weak at WR. I think we'd be better off if our position groups were more balanced.

People that have watched practice expect us to be a solid offensive football team. Our receivers are not horrible. A quarterback that can hit the broad side of a barn and an offense that isn’t as complicated as trigonometry will help Mississippi raised players a lot.

[confucius say]

People that have watched practice expect us to be a solid offensive football team. Our receivers are not horrible. A quarterback that can hit the broad side of a barn and an offense that isn’t as complicated as trigonometry will help Mississippi raised players a lot.

So will reps. We've caught more balls in practice than we ever have. Our wr play will be better than some think. Not great. But solid.

[R2Dawg]

Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)

There is a good chance for us to get 5.

I will not be super shocked if we don?t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)

Not sure about the % but that is our path to 5 or 6 if we are lucky.

[R2Dawg]

Had time on my hands and wanted to talk football, so here's my projected starting line-up and the first ones off the bench. Feel free to disagree or create your own if you wish.

QB:

KJ Costello....Will Rogers

RB:

Kylin Hill....Jo'Quavious Marks

WR:

Outside:

Osirus Mitchell....Tyrell Shavers

Malik Heath....Tulu Griffin (think he's starting by the end of the year either here or the slot)

Slot:

Javonta Payton....Geor'quarius Spivey

Austin Williams....Rufus Harvey


OL:

LT- Charles Cross....Scott Lashley
LG- Dareuan Parker....Laquinston Sharp
C- Cole Smith....Laquinston Sharp/James Jackson
RG- Greg Eiland....Nick Pendley
RT- Dolla Bill....Scott Lashley/Greg Eiland

DL:

DE-
Kobe Jones....Aaron Odom
Marquiss Spencer....Jack Harris/Jaden Crumedy (can play both DE and DT)

DT-
Nathan Pickering....Jaden Crumedy

LB:

MLB- Errol Thompson....Tyrus Wheat

OLB- Aaron Brule....Nate Watson

Rush/Edge- Jordan Davis....Tre Lawson

CB:

Martin Emerson....Esaias Furdge

Emmanuel Forbes....Malik Sanders/Kyle Cass (once he gets passed the learning curve)

S:

FS- Marcus Murphy....Shawn Preston

SS- Collin Duncan....Janari Dean/Landon Guidry

Dog- Fred Peters....JP Purvis

Agree on some that on paper, we don't look too bad. Our OL is very talented on two deep. Very good in a lot of other spots too. If the new WR produce, then watch out. They will help our D out a lot.

[msbulldog]

That?s what I don?t get either. Yes, the defense may be suspect this year, but it isn?t like we haven?t been recruiting well on the defensive side. And almost every single person expects the offense to be good this year. We literally have never seen what we are about to see on the offensive side of the ball at this school. IF the newcomers on defense produce then we will be ok. Great thing about this year is no one expects us to do anything. Isn?t that typically when we have our better seasons?

I remember Brian Hadad having a fit before the 2014 season because we were picked 6th in the West however Dak was a preseason all sec QB. KJ is going to destroy Daks passing records playing 2 less games.

I may have a huge amount of egg on my face after this year but I?m just not as doom and gloom as others.

I agree and I don't think our defense will be terrible. Sure we got a lot of youngsters, but they're highly regarded youngsters, I think they will step up.

[bostondawg]

Arkansas (95%) Vandy (95%) Ole Miss (80%), Missouri (70%) Kentucky (65%)

There is a good chance for us to get 5.

I will not be super shocked if we don?t get Auburn or A&M (but not both)

Just a quick refresher for anyone who's interested on undergrad probability.

The chance for us to go 5-0 in that stretch would be 0.95*0.95*0.80*0.70*0.65=32.85%.

So, it's more likely that we don't go 5-0 in that stretch than we do. I think calling it a "good chance" is a bit of a stretch.

However, the probability of us winning at least 4 games in that stretch with the possibility of a loss to Kentucky would be 32.85%+0.95*0.95*0.80*0.70*(1-0.65)=32.85%+17.69%=50.54% (a coin flip)

[Political Hack]

We're going to get blown up up front on defense by most of the teams we play. They'll play ball control to keep our offense on the sidelines. I know people are high on our DL, but I worry about the front 7. If we can't stop the run against SEC teams, that's a bad recipe. I think the over/under W/L should be 4.5. The one thing that gives me hope for 5 or 6 wins is that Leach is much more likely to upset some better teams with his system. Mullen rarely lost to worse teams, but also rarely upset better teams. Leach will do both more often. I just hope our fan base doesn't freak when we drop a game or two we should've won. This is going to take 2-3 years.

[ZedFedder]

Basically, it’s a complete unknown on this year until we play. Could we win 6? Sure. Could we win 3? Also just as possible. We simply don’t know, and that’s why I love this board because many bring up good points on both sides of the optimist/pessimist side of the coin. I think 4-6 is my prediction.

[ShotgunDawg]

We're going to get blown up up front on defense by most of the teams we play. They'll play ball control to keep our offense on the sidelines. I know people are high on our DL, but I worry about the front 7. If we can't stop the run against SEC teams, that's a bad recipe. I think the over/under W/L should be 4.5. The one thing that gives me hope for 5 or 6 wins is that Leach is much more likely to upset some better teams with his system. Mullen rarely lost to worse teams, but also rarely upset better teams. Leach will do both more often. I just hope our fan base doesn't freak when we drop a game or two we should've won. This is going to take 2-3 years.

For better or worse, this is where I think Arnett's scheme will play a big role this season.

In the Joe Lee system, your band was playing or the other team's band was playing & I see an similar outcome here.

You say teams will play ball control vs us but I'm not sure Arnett's scheme is condusive to the other team playing ball control. This isn't the Mullen bend but don't break style that runs the clock down.

This is blitzing from different places & taking chances, which is the right style with Leach's offense, because either way it should get the ball back to the offense fairly quickly.

Teams may try to run the ball down our throats, but with all the run blitzing we'll be doing, I think you're going to see us give up a good many explosive runs but also create a lot of tackles behind the LOS. Both of which aren't conducive to milking the clock

[Coach34]

For better or worse, this is where I think Arnett's scheme will play a big role this season.

You can have a great scheme and get your ass beat because you simply dont have the players. Our talent level defensively is easily bottom half of the SEC and may not be top 10

[Commercecomet24]

We're going to get blown up up front on defense by most of the teams we play. They'll play ball control to keep our offense on the sidelines. I know people are high on our DL, but I worry about the front 7. If we can't stop the run against SEC teams, that's a bad recipe. I think the over/under W/L should be 4.5. The one thing that gives me hope for 5 or 6 wins is that Leach is much more likely to upset some better teams with his system. Mullen rarely lost to worse teams, but also rarely upset better teams. Leach will do both more often. I just hope our fan base doesn't freak when we drop a game or two we should've won. This is going to take 2-3 years.

Very good assessment. Give Leach and Arnett some time and I believe we'll see good things happen.

[Schultzy]

Offense

QB - Costello/Shrader or Rogers

RB - Hill/Marks

WR - Mitchell/Shavers

WR - Heath/Tulu

WR - Payton/Spivey

WR - Williams/Cumbest

LT - Cross/Lashley

LG - Eiland/Sharp

C - Smith/Jackson

RG - Parker/Pendley

RT - Dolla/Lashley

Defense

DE - Kobe/Harris

NG - Crumedy/Pickering

DE - Spencer/Odom

Hybrid - Davis/Wheat

MLB - Errol/Watson

WLB - Brule/Watson

CB - Emerson/Sanders

CB - Furdge or Forbes

Dog - Murphy/Purvis

FS - Peters/Guidry

SS - Duncan/Preston

What you got on Caleb Ducking?

[Tripp McNeely]

Offense

QB - Costello/Shrader or Rogers

RB - Hill/Marks

WR - Mitchell/Shavers

WR - Heath/Tulu

WR - Payton/Spivey

WR - Williams/Cumbest

LT - Cross/Lashley

LG - Eiland/Sharp

C - Smith/Jackson

RG - Parker/Pendley

RT - Dolla/Lashley

Defense

DE - Kobe/Harris

NG - Crumedy/Pickering

DE - Spencer/Odom

Hybrid - Davis/Wheat

MLB - Errol/Watson

WLB - Brule/Watson

CB - Emerson/Sanders

CB - Furdge or Forbes

Dog - Murphy/Purvis

FS - Peters/Guidry

SS - Duncan/Preston

So, who are we gonna lose off this beside KJ, Hill and maybe Erroll?? We might be LOADED in 2021!!

[Jack Lambert]

5 wins gonna be tough to get.

It's going to hard for a lot of teams in the SEC. 4 wins will be equivalent to a 8 win season. 5 wins will be like a 9 win season.

[smootness]

It's going to hard for a lot of teams in the SEC. 4 wins will be equivalent to a 8 win season. 5 wins will be like a 9 win season.

That's not true. 9 wins would be 5-3 in-conference plus all 4 OOC games. I wouldn't call going 5-5 in-conference equivalent to that. I'd say 6 wins is roughly equivalent to 9, 5 wins about equal to 7-8, and 4 wins the same as about 6-7.

[Jarius]

So, who are we gonna lose off this beside KJ, Hill and maybe Erroll?? We might be LOADED in 2021!!

Based on comments from the guys at 247 I would not expect many if any at all senior starters to return even with the extra year of eligibility. I would assume they are talking to the players about that option and they don't plan on coming back.

[Hot Rock]

That's not true. 9 wins would be 5-3 in-conference plus all 4 OOC games. I wouldn't call going 5-5 in-conference equivalent to that. I'd say 6 wins is roughly equivalent to 9, 5 wins about equal to 7-8, and 4 wins the same as about 6-7.

4 wins is like winning 4 SEC games and 3or4 OOC games depending on the opponents of course so yes 4 wins is like 7-8 wins normally. 3 wins would be like winning 6 or 7 and even a 2 win season this year could be equal to a bowl season if you played a bunch of cupcakes in your OOC games.

This year will be unlike any other we have ever known.

[Johnson85]

4 wins is like winning 4 SEC games and 3or4 OOC games depending on the opponents of course so yes 4 wins is like 7-8 wins normally. 3 wins would be like winning 6 or 7 and even a 2 win season this year could be equal to a bowl season if you played a bunch of cupcakes in your OOC games.

This year will be unlike any other we have ever known.

Really just depends on the draw you get from the additional two teams. If you were good enough that you were likely to go 4-4 in the SEC, and then you got UGA and Vandy added, then 5-5 is about like an 8 win season. If you're Arkansas and you get UGA and FLorida added, then I would say 2-8 is about the equivalent of a 5 win season, maybe a six win season (most teams that go 2-6 in the SEC probably don't sweep OOC, especially with the P5 requirement), and going 4-6 is like an 8 win season.

[smootness]

4 wins is like winning 4 SEC games and 3or4 OOC games depending on the opponents of course so yes 4 wins is like 7-8 wins normally. 3 wins would be like winning 6 or 7 and even a 2 win season this year could be equal to a bowl season if you played a bunch of cupcakes in your OOC games.

This year will be unlike any other we have ever known.

You normally play 8 SEC games, so winning 4 would be going 4-4. Now we're playing 10, so going 4-6 is not the same. It's more like going 3-5 in-conference.

[Dawgology]

Based on comments from the guys at 247 I would not expect many if any at all senior starters to return even with the extra year of eligibility. I would assume they are talking to the players about that option and they don't plan on coming back.

I would guess it's a little early for them to making that decision. I'm sure some will go and I'm sure some will stay.

I'm just glad to be watching football. Even if we just win 3 it's football and Leach gets a glorified preseason.

[Hot Rock]

You normally play 8 SEC games, so winning 4 would be going 4-4. Now we're playing 10, so going 4-6 is not the same. It's more like going 3-5 in-conference.

Wins are what's hard to come by not the number of games. State could play a 13 game SEC schedule and more than 4 or 5 wins would still be hard to do.

That's what I am saying, it's not just the number of games but ones you can win. That's why I say winning 4 would be a really good year. and definitely better than a 6-6 type year.

I still think they win 5 this year. I think Leach has a formula that works.

[Hot Rock]

Really just depends on the draw you get from the additional two teams. If you were good enough that you were likely to go 4-4 in the SEC, and then you got UGA and Vandy added, then 5-5 is about like an 8 win season. If you're Arkansas and you get UGA and FLorida added, then I would say 2-8 is about the equivalent of a 5 win season, maybe a six win season (most teams that go 2-6 in the SEC probably don't sweep OOC, especially with the P5 requirement), and going 4-6 is like an 8 win season.

I agree with everything in this post. That's why I said a 2 win team could make a bowl with cupcakes. It's possible, just not likely.