Another LSU starter out

[Heydawg]

Starting DT Tyler Shelvin opting out now https://twitter.com/rossdellenger/status/1300554730884812801?s=21

[ShotgunDawg]

Are we basically playing Kentucky now in game 1?

[Heydawg]

Still super talented roster, but very little experience. Going to be tough to beat them either way, but having them week 1 sure does help now.

[ShotgunDawg]

Still super talented roster, but very little experience. Going to be tough to beat them either way, but having them week 1 sure does help now.

They’re super talented at a few positions, but I’m not sure about overall now

[confucius say]

They’re super talented at a few positions, but I’m not sure about overall now

Positionally, I think I would take our qb room, rb room, and OL room.

[ShotgunDawg]

Positionally, I think I would take our qb room, rb room, and OL room.

Agree. I may even take our DL after this opt out. Not sure. I’d have to look.

I’d definitely still take their WRs and DBs

[Tripp McNeely]

We?re beating these mofos!!

[Heydawg]

https://twitter.com/BryanDFischer/status/1300125259878735873/photo/1

[Jarius]

We now have a real chance to beat them. There is something going on in Baton Rouge. I don’t care how they try to downplay it. Every other school that is playing that has these highly draftable players isn’t having the Same issue.

[BogeyGolfer]

Starting DT Tyler Shelvin opting out now https://twitter.com/rossdellenger/status/1300554730884812801?s=21

State by 21

[Cooterpoot]

Our depth on defense and talent at WR is going to hurt us. New systems on both sides too.

[ShotgunDawg]

Our depth on defense and talent at WR is going to hurt us. New systems on both sides too.

Ok. Them too

[Cooterpoot]

Ok. Them too

They'll still be running the same offense. Sorry, they are. They didn't just forget the playbook because one asst left. And they're still considerably more talented than us. You guys that think we're going to suddenly score 50 a game are going to be disappointed.

[ShotgunDawg]

They'll still be running the same offense. Sorry, they are. They didn't just forget the playbook because one asst left. And they're still considerably more talented than us. You guys that think we're going to suddenly score 50 a game are going to be disappointed.

I'm mean your not wrong but your in the worst case scenario camp.

Pelini does run a different defense than Aranda and I don't know what Scott Linehan will be running.

Another factor is that they'll be playing a ton of guys that haven't played.

Just looks like your trying to find reasons why we won't compete rather than reasons why we will.

[Madisonmd]

Maybe they stopped paying their players!!

[Jarius]

LSU now has 71 players on scholarship. That’s the equivalent of one of the biggest probations you get from the NCAA. The game should be competitive. I don’t think we could get them at a better time. That being said, we will still need help to win. LSU is playing with 12 less scholarship players Than us and a roster That completely turned over and they will still be a 2 touchdown favorite at least. Something has to change in college football.

[Jarius]

There is a rumor that LSU could have 1 or 2 more starters opt out.

[Jack Lambert]

There is a rumor that LSU could have 1 or 2 more starters opt out.

They probably see the writing on the wall. No SEC championship and no National Championship so why risk getting hurt.

[ShotgunDawg]

They probably see the writing on the wall. No SEC championship and no National Championship so why risk getting hurt.

Did I miss where they canceled the SEC Championship and Natty?

There’s more to it. Football players want to play football. Something Is rotten in Denmark

[ShotgunDawg]

There is a rumor that LSU could have 1 or 2 more starters opt out.

Feels like a mutiny

[Brahmabull]

I think LSU may have a problem with agents/runners around their players. Just a guess.

[Jack Lambert]

Did I miss where they canceled the SEC Championship and Natty?

There’s more to it. Football players want to play football. Something Is rotten in Denmark

The other guys know what they have on the team and know they will not will it. When Chase left that was the first domino.

[Jack Lambert]

I think LSU may have a problem with agents/runners around their players. Just a guess.

If I was chase and I knew I was a first rounder, why not hire a agent. That agent will float me money. I can train 24/7 and not worry about rules or getting hurt. No brainer.

[ShotgunDawg]

The other guys know what they have on the team and know they will not will it. When Chase left that was the first domino.

Gotcha. Yeah, I think they may realize they aren’t very good and draftable players are scared of their stocking falling

[ShotgunDawg]

If I was chase and I knew I was a first rounder, why not hire a agent. That agent will float me money. I can train 24/7 and not worry about rules or getting hurt. No brainer.

Maybe but why not do that 3 weeks ago?

Also, the Nose tackle isn’t a top 2 round talent.

[FISHDAWG]

So why hasn't this been a problem with Bama or the other perennial powerhouses ? .... I know they have lost a few here and there but this seems like a different level

[ShotgunDawg]

So why hasn't this been a problem with Bama or the other perennial powerhouses ? .... I know they have lost a few here and there but this seems like a different level

Correct. That’s the question.

[Jack Lambert]

Maybe but why not do that 3 weeks ago?

Also, the Nose tackle isn’t a top 2 round talent.

Hell you had a kid from Ole Miss opt out and few weeks later decided to transfer. Who knows why they change their minds.

[Jack Lambert]

So why hasn't this been a problem with Bama or the other perennial powerhouses ? .... I know they have lost a few here and there but this seems like a different level

Coaching. That's the reason. The staff at LSU is shit. O can recruit but he is not a premier coach. The coach that made the differences last season is gone. They were average the season before last and will be average this season.

[MrCoachKlein]

Projected starter's 247 rating with LSU's opted out players. Last 2 numbers are the average. It's a lot closer than last year or even 2 months ago. Sorry about the formatting. Looked a lot better in the spreadsheet.

LSU MSU
OLINE OLINE
4 0.8992 So 5 0.9877 FR
4 0.9217 Jr 3 0.8416 Sr
4 0.9105 Jr 3 0.8797 Sr
4 0.9179 Fr 4 0.9223 Sr
4 0.9772 Sr 3 0.8529 Sr

TE TE
3 0.8386 Sr 3 0.8775 So

WR WR
3 0.861 Sr 4 0.9587 JR
4 0.9312 So 3 0.8785 JR
5 0.993 Jr 4 0.9064 FR
3 0.8828 So 3 0.8366 JR
4 0.9499 So 4 0.8913 FR
3 0.8579 So 3 0.8423 FR

QB QB
4 0.9347 Jr 4 0.9749 SR

RB RB
4 0.8924 So 4 0.9184 JR
4 0.9399 So 4 0.9369 FR
5 0.9929 So 3 0.883 FR

OLB OLB
4 0.9206 Sr 3 0.8816 FR
4 0.9216 Sr 4 0.9034 JR

MLB MLB
4 0.8923 Jr 3 0.8807 SR
4 0.9044 Jr 3 0.8681 FR

DE DE
4 0.9318 Sr 4 0.9056 SR
4 0.9216 So 4 0.9047 SR

NT DT
4 0.9400 So 4 0.9675 So
3 0.8702 Fr 4 0.8944 So

CB CB
3 0.8735 So 3 0.8614 So
5 0.998 So 3 0.8696 Sr
3 0.8801 So
S S
4 0.9432 So 3 0.8881 So
5 0.9901 Sr 3 0.8721 Sr
AVG 0.9203 3 0.8859 Sr
AVG 0.8935

[Jarius]

Projected starter's 247 rating with LSU's opted out players. Last 2 numbers are the average. It's a lot closer than last year or even 2 months ago. Sorry about the formatting. Looked a lot better in the spreadsheet.

LSU MSU
OLINE OLINE
4 0.8992 So 5 0.9877 FR
4 0.9217 Jr 3 0.8416 Sr
4 0.9105 Jr 3 0.8797 Sr
4 0.9179 Fr 4 0.9223 Sr
4 0.9772 Sr 3 0.8529 Sr

TE TE
3 0.8386 Sr 3 0.8775 So

WR WR
3 0.861 Sr 4 0.9587 JR
4 0.9312 So 3 0.8785 JR
5 0.993 Jr 4 0.9064 FR
3 0.8828 So 3 0.8366 JR
4 0.9499 So 4 0.8913 FR
3 0.8579 So 3 0.8423 FR

QB QB
4 0.9347 Jr 4 0.9749 SR

RB RB
4 0.8924 So 4 0.9184 JR
4 0.9399 So 4 0.9369 FR
5 0.9929 So 3 0.883 FR

OLB OLB
4 0.9206 Sr 3 0.8816 FR
4 0.9216 Sr 4 0.9034 JR

MLB MLB
4 0.8923 Jr 3 0.8807 SR
4 0.9044 Jr 3 0.8681 FR

DE DE
4 0.9318 Sr 4 0.9056 SR
4 0.9216 So 4 0.9047 SR

NT DT
4 0.9400 So 4 0.9675 So
3 0.8702 Fr 4 0.8944 So

CB CB
3 0.8735 So 3 0.8614 So
5 0.998 So 3 0.8696 Sr
3 0.8801 So
S S
4 0.9432 So 3 0.8881 So
5 0.9901 Sr 3 0.8721 Sr
AVG 0.9203 3 0.8859 Sr
AVG 0.8935


The difference is the ratings of the people behind those starters that will still have to play for both teams. I agree it's much closer than some people on here want you to believe at this point though.

[ShotgunDawg]

Projected starter's 247 rating with LSU's opted out players. Last 2 numbers are the average. It's a lot closer than last year or even 2 months ago. Sorry about the formatting. Looked a lot better in the spreadsheet.

LSU MSU
OLINE OLINE
4 0.8992 So 5 0.9877 FR
4 0.9217 Jr 3 0.8416 Sr
4 0.9105 Jr 3 0.8797 Sr
4 0.9179 Fr 4 0.9223 Sr
4 0.9772 Sr 3 0.8529 Sr

TE TE
3 0.8386 Sr 3 0.8775 So

WR WR
3 0.861 Sr 4 0.9587 JR
4 0.9312 So 3 0.8785 JR
5 0.993 Jr 4 0.9064 FR
3 0.8828 So 3 0.8366 JR
4 0.9499 So 4 0.8913 FR
3 0.8579 So 3 0.8423 FR

QB QB
4 0.9347 Jr 4 0.9749 SR

RB RB
4 0.8924 So 4 0.9184 JR
4 0.9399 So 4 0.9369 FR
5 0.9929 So 3 0.883 FR

OLB OLB
4 0.9206 Sr 3 0.8816 FR
4 0.9216 Sr 4 0.9034 JR

MLB MLB
4 0.8923 Jr 3 0.8807 SR
4 0.9044 Jr 3 0.8681 FR

DE DE
4 0.9318 Sr 4 0.9056 SR
4 0.9216 So 4 0.9047 SR

NT DT
4 0.9400 So 4 0.9675 So
3 0.8702 Fr 4 0.8944 So

CB CB
3 0.8735 So 3 0.8614 So
5 0.998 So 3 0.8696 Sr
3 0.8801 So
S S
4 0.9432 So 3 0.8881 So
5 0.9901 Sr 3 0.8721 Sr
AVG 0.9203 3 0.8859 Sr
AVG 0.8935

Good stuff. I was thinking of doing something like this

QB - MSU
RB - MSU
OL - MSU
WR - LSU by a mile
DL - Even
LB - Even
DB - LSU by a mile

Really outside of WR & DB, the two teams are very comparable.

Thus, MSU must get a pass rush & Costello must be good.

I really like our OL potential to pass block vs their DL & LBs. If KJ can have some time, Leach’s offense will beat those DB.

With that DL & LSU strength of DBs, LSU may drop coverage & only rush 3 guys. Will Leach run Kylin & just win the game?

It’ll be on Arnett to dial up pressure and create some big plays

[Ari Gold]

2017
Troy 24-21
Miss state 37-7

This 2020 roster for LSU right now is worse than the 2017 one..

Just saying

[TrapGame]

Brad Edwards on OOB said due to what LSU has lost recently they do not have a legit three deep at most positions. And it will show.

[Cooterpoot]

I've got LSU by 10. If reports from practice get better, then maybe I look at it differently. We've got a long way to go on both sides of the ball.

[Jarius]

I think LSU by 10 is a fair prediction at the moment. I also think our offense is going to be much better than people on here are saying though. Our starting quarterback, running back, and receivers are getting high praise from everyone that has been to practice except the ones from here. I think once the top 8 receivers get the majority of the snaps the timing will get much better. Drops aren't an issue with the ones who will be playing. The defense has been universally criticized from basically everyone so that's probably spot on. The fact that week 1 is no longer a blowout prediction and we could actually win the game will make the next month way more exciting. As much as I was ready for football to start, not having any hope for the first week still dampened the excitement a little bit. Now it feels like we have a real chance to compete at least.

[ShotgunDawg]

2017
Troy 24-21
Miss state 37-7

This 2020 roster for LSU right now is worse than the 2017 one..

Just saying

With a bunch of new coaches

[ShotgunDawg]

I've got LSU by 10. If reports from practice get better, then maybe I look at it differently. We've got a long way to go on both sides of the ball.

Are you really basing your opinion on C34’s practice report?

[ShotgunDawg]

I think LSU by 10 is a fair prediction at the moment. .

I don’t think that’s fair at all. There’s no basis for favoring LSU by 10.

I’d say LSU -4 or -5 & that’s because I have absolutely no idea what we’ll look like

[Ari Gold]

I've got LSU by 10. If reports from practice get better, then maybe I look at it differently. We've got a long way to go on both sides of the ball.

We are going to be better on Offense without question..
Defense is huge ?
Yes we lost some guys ... Gay /Dantlzer and Cole are the 3 hardest to replace. But Willie only played in 3.5 games last year not counting the bowl game . Autry missed 8 games and played in one meaningless game . Rivers was solid but not a difference maker ( like I thought he would be ) . Landrews and Peters basically same player .. Leo was average at best . Smitherman missed half the season at CB.
Lovett had basically the same numbers as Crumedy ..

Depth And lack of experience is the big issue this year .. we have recruited defense well on paper.. time to see if these kids are as good as expected

Davis , Wheat, and Lawson all would have played last year and Davis would have started

Emerson will have a big year and separate himself as Dantlzer did as a Sophomore...we at just so thin and young at CB. It?s an issue now but could be a huge issue with a few injuries

I like the depth at LB. lot of young guys . Brule could have a really good year. And an IN SHAPE Errol is very good SEC LB

I think Murphy has a really good year for us in the backend .. He is going too have to

We need Kobe to be a leader and have a really good year and hopefully Marquiss Spencer can stay healthy. That kid played a lot of snaps back on the Sweat and Simmons teams .. his talent is there

Pickering and Crumedy are SEC talents. And I think Pickering could be and will be very very good. Just need the 2 and 3 deep there to step up and be serviceable

[Jarius]

I don’t think that’s fair at all. There’s no basis for favoring LSU by 10.

I’d say LSU -4 or -5 & that’s because I have absolutely no idea what we’ll look like

Ok well you will have a big opportunity to make some cash then because we will be a 10 point underdog at minimum unless they have more people opt out. If they have some more leave it will get down that low but not at the moment.

[msbulldog]

The one book that's out there is BetonLine and the spread is LSU -16.

[ShotgunDawg]

The one book that's out there is BetonLine and the spread is LSU -16.

Jump on it. It hasn’t been updated

[Jarius]

Jacoby Stevens is rumored to be the next to opt out by the end of the week. Former 5 star. If he leaves then man....the secondary is no longer very good for them either outside of Stingley.

[ShotgunDawg]

Jacoby Stevens is rumored to be the next to opt out by the end of the week. Former 5 star. If he leaves then man....the secondary is no longer very good for them either outside of Stingley.

And he can’t cover 5 guys

[FISHDAWG]

TK McKlendon - starting DE is now reported in the Portal ... forgive if this has been posted somewhere already

[RocketCityDawg]

The one book that's out there is BetonLine and the spread is LSU -16.

I got MSU +18.5 this morning at 5d

[ShotgunDawg]

I got MSU +18.5 this morning at 5d

Good for you. I think it’ll be LSU -<10 by game time

[Cooterpoot]

And he can?t cover 5 guys

And our WRs minus a couple haven't looked good. I don't think you understand what the real practice reports look like. Our defense hasn't been good. Long way to go there and not sure we'll get there this year. WR has been really inconsistent. Also, I don't expect Heath to start/play. And that hurts.
Nothing wrong with optimism, but reality still bites.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Something is definitely going on down on the Bayou. Gonna be interesting to see how this one plays out. I'm not saying it isn't the case, but the chances of this being solely related to COVID is slim.

[Cooterpoot]

I got MSU +18.5 this morning at 5d

That's a good get.

[Homedawg]

We better score 50 if you want a cover. Cause we gonna give up a ton of yards and points.

[ShotgunDawg]

We better score 50 if you want a cover. Cause we gonna give up a ton of yards and points.

Wait, we’re giving up 67 points?

[Prediction? Pain.]

Bill C. released new Top and Bottom 10 rankings for returning production accounting for transfers and opt-outs. Among teams that are tentatively set to play this fall, LSU has the 3rd least returning production in the country . . . and we're not too far behind at 8th:

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1300425519037636610

AS for what that normally means, here's an explanation from Jan. 2019 (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/31/18204093/2019-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience):


Most of the teams near the top of the list should be in good shape.

Over the last five years, 35 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production based on these calculations; 28 of them (80 percent) improved, and 17 (49 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points. Last year's top 10 teams in returning production (omitting Liberty, which was in its first year in FBS) saw their win total increase by a combined 25 games, from 45 to 70, in 2018. Michigan State regressed by three wins, and Mississippi State regressed by one. The other eight all improved . . . .

On the flip side, teams at the bottom might have lean years.

Meanwhile, 80 teams [over the past five years] returned no more than 50 percent of their production; 65 of them (81 percent) regressed, 36 (45 percent) by at least a touchdown. Last year's bottom 10 teams saw their win total decrease by a combined 27 games, from 76 to 49. LSU and FIU each managed to improve by one win, and Colorado held steady at 5-7. The other seven all fell by at least two wins, and four (Navy, Colorado State, Louisville, and CMU) all fell by at least four . . . .

If you're interested, Bill C. also just released his updated S&P+ ranking (https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29780982/college-football-preseason-sp+-rankings-ohio-state-tops-alabama-clemson)s. He included all FBS teams for the first poll and said he'll pare it down to only teams actually playing once the season starts. The S&P+ likes our offense's chances this season. Projected 26th nationally among all FBS teams, which is good for top half of the SEC. Defense . . . yeah, not so much. Projected 73rd on that front.

[BrunswickDawg]

Bill C. released new Top and Bottom 10 rankings for returning production accounting for transfers and opt-outs. Among teams that are tentatively set to play this fall, LSU has the 3rd least returning production in the country . . . and we're not too far behind at 8th:

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1300425519037636610

AS for what that normally means, here's an explanation from Jan. 2019 (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/31/18204093/2019-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience):



If you're interested, Bill C. also just released his updated S&P+ ranking (https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29780982/college-football-preseason-sp+-rankings-ohio-state-tops-alabama-clemson)s. He included all FBS teams for the first poll and said he'll pare it down to only teams actually playing once the season starts. The S&P+ likes our offense's chances this season. Projected 26th nationally among all FBS teams, which is good for top half of the SEC. Defense . . . yeah, not so much. Projected 73rd on that front.

Of course, we were high in his returning production rankings the past 2 years, and we see how that turned out.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Of course, we were high in his returning production rankings the past 2 years, and we see how that turned out.

No joke, man. Maybe we can continue being an outlier bucking the trends, stinking when we should be improve and improving when we should stink.

ETA: Actually, we weren't high in his returning-production rankings last year. Even before the suspensions, we were 92nd nationally.

[Cooterpoot]

Returning production doesn't consider the players you've picked up, like Costello.

[ShotgunDawg]

Returning production doesn't consider the players you've picked up, like Costello.

Correct and that’s a huge issue with MSU and ESPN FPI

[Prediction? Pain.]

Returning production doesn't consider the players you've picked up, like Costello.


Correct and that?s a huge issue with MSU and ESPN FPI

I don't know what data ESPN's FPI uses, but Bill C. says that the returning production data he compiles and incorporates into the S&P+ does include transfers:

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1300476116155731968

(The dude asking the question is from Rutgers' SB Nation site. As of late July, Rutgers had ten dudes transfer in, many from other Big 10 schools.)

[ShotgunDawg]

I don't know what data ESPN's FPI uses, but Bill C. says that the returning production data he compiles and incorporates into the S&P+ does include transfers:

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1300476116155731968

(The dude asking the question is from Rutgers' SB Nation site. As of late July, Rutgers had ten dudes transfer in, many from other Big 10 schools.)

Yes, but Costello was hurt last year, so his returning production stinks. Costello only played in 5 games last year and threw for 1038 yards and 6 TDs

However, in 2018 he threw for 3,500 yards and 29 TDs

So what year is more representative of what MSU is getting?

[Todd4State]

My theory:

LSU players have been wined and dined since last year. They know they won't win a title this year and may lose several games. When that happens the wining and dining stops. Unless they aren't on the team anymore. Then it's "yeah we were good when I was playing nose tackle."

[Todd4State]

I don't know what data ESPN's FPI uses, but Bill C. says that the returning production data he compiles and incorporates into the S&P+ does include transfers:

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1300476116155731968

(The dude asking the question is from Rutgers' SB Nation site. As of late July, Rutgers had ten dudes transfer in, many from other Big 10 schools.)

It does not however include JUCO players since that is a niche for MSU. It also doesn't take into account our extremely poor S&C, culture and discipline from the previous staff either.

[ShotgunDawg]

My theory:

LSU players have been wined and dined since last year. They know they won't win a title this year and may lose several games. When that happens the wining and dining stops. Unless they aren't on the team anymore. Then it's "yeah we were good when I was playing nose tackle."

Agree. And an example that supports this is that the Nose Guard that opted out yesterday is currently 370 while LSU wants him at 330.

I think Coach O does somethings very well, but he?s simply not the CEO needed to maintain a program. My guess is that he doesn?t have the organizational skills nor the other CEO needed to maintain like Saban does.

It?s been said that Saban could run GE. He?s that type of CEO. Can you imagine O running a real company?

I think O caught lightening in a bottle but in the long run LSU is going to be a mess

[Prediction? Pain.]

Yes, but Costello was hurt last year, so his returning production stinks. Costello only played in 5 games last year and threw for 1038 yards and 6 TDs

However, in 2018 he threw for 3,500 yards and 29 TDs

So what year is more representative of what MSU is getting?

Possibly, but I don't know that. In response to a comment about Kentucky's situation, where Terry Wilson is coming back after getting hurt last year, Bill C. said that he plugged Wilson's 2018 numbers into the formula:

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1300454681873969153

I'm not on Twitter, but I guess someone who is could confirm that Costello's '18 numbers are reflected in the returning-production stats. I'd be interested to know.

Also remember that we're bringing back all of Shrader's stats at the QB position, too, and he accounted for a little over half our total yards at the QB position. So it's not like the cupboard was totally bare to begin with.

Regardless, I'm not sure how much this all affects our S&P+ projection. The offense is projected at 26th. The defense is the unit bringing the projection down. (Note, too, that even before the transfers on defense, we were 113th nationally in returning defensive production.)

And to bring my babbling back home, my points were just these: (1) On the original topic of the thread, LSU lost an insane of amount of production from last year. Barring something completely out of the ordinary happening -- as five years' worth of data shows, teams at the bottom regress 80% of the time -- LSU's going to be markedly worse than last year. (2) We're not in a great shape under those same metrics, either. Yes, there are tons of variables. But putting all that aside, most teams that return as little production as State (and LSU) this year haven't gotten better. I sure hope that the improvements in S&C and discipline stuff alone can make up for this. And it's certainly got to help some. But that doesn't mean that I'm going to ignore the facts, either.

[bulldawg28]

And our WRs minus a couple haven't looked good. I don't think you understand what the real practice reports look like. Our defense hasn't been good. Long way to go there and not sure we'll get there this year. WR has been really inconsistent. Also, I don't expect Heath to start/play. And that hurts.
Nothing wrong with optimism, but reality still bites.

I'm willing to bet Heath plays and the Offense scores alot. From what I'm hearing and my opinion just the conditioning the Offense does will be a nightmare for LSU. It will be hot, humid, muggy, and we're pressing tempo. Once we settle down offensively LSU is going to be in trouble. They'll be gassed by halftime. The second half we're going to drag them. Mark it!

[Jarius]

Possibly, but I don't know that. In response to a comment about Kentucky's situation, where Terry Wilson is coming back after getting hurt last year, Bill C. said that he plugged Wilson's 2018 numbers into the formula:

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1300454681873969153

I'm not on Twitter, but I guess someone who is could confirm that Costello's '18 numbers are reflected in the returning-production stats. I'd be interested to know.

Also remember that we're bringing back all of Shrader's stats at the QB position, too, and he accounted for a little over half our total yards at the QB position. So it's not like the cupboard was totally bare to begin with.

Regardless, I'm not sure how much this all affects our S&P+ projection. The offense is projected at 26th. The defense is the unit bringing the projection down. (Note, too, that even before the transfers on defense, we were 113th nationally in returning defensive production.)

And to bring my babbling back home, my points were just these: (1) On the original topic of the thread, LSU lost an insane of amount of production from last year. Barring something completely out of the ordinary happening -- as five years' worth of data shows, teams at the bottom regress 80% of the time -- LSU's going to be markedly worse than last year. (2) We're not in a great shape under those same metrics, either. Yes, there are tons of variables. But putting all that aside, most teams that return as little production as State (and LSU) this year haven't gotten better. I sure hope that the improvements in S&C and discipline stuff alone can make up for this. And it's certainly got to help some. But that doesn't mean that I'm going to ignore the facts, either.

Costello’s #s are from 2019. Brad Edwards went on Bo’s show and explained why the number for MSU was so bad and that was the main reason. If they used Costello’s 2018 #s we would look much better per Edwards.

[Jarius]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29786905/lsu-coach-ed-orgeron-says-more-players-considering-opting-football-season

And the hits Just Keep coming. Coach O says 1 or 2 more are considering opting out. I can’t wait to play them.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Costello’s #s are from 2019. Brad Edwards went on Bo’s show and explained why the number for MSU was so bad and that was the main reason. If they used Costello’s 2018 #s we would look much better per Edwards.

For ESPN's FPI, Bill C.'s S&P+ data, or both? I assume they're using at least some different inputs since FPI projects us at 71st and S&P+ projects us at 48th.

[Homedawg]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29786905/lsu-coach-ed-orgeron-says-more-players-considering-opting-football-season

And the hits Just Keep coming. Coach O says 1 or 2 more are considering opting out. I can’t wait to play them.

So what will be the thoughts if we get whipped?? Season over?? Just asking

[Jarius]

So what will be the thoughts if we get whipped?? Season over?? Just asking

If we get whipped we will need to improve to get to 3 wins because if LSU has 2 more starters opt out they will struggle to go .500

We can think that State is going to be just average and LSU is too. Thinking we can beat this team doesn’t mean we think State is any better. How many people do they have to have defect before you will admit that we should be able to compete with them? We have had 3 straight top 25 recruiting classes. We aren’t playing sunbelt players on our side. If their 5 star safety quits (the rumor) and any other starter they will basically be playing with the same type players we are at every position outside one cornerback spot.

[Homedawg]

If we get whipped we will need to improve to get to 3 wins because if LSU has 2 more starters opt out they won’t go .500

Our defense is not good at present. At all. Now the jucos will get better and help. Arnett is good. But he can't fix our problems w this talent. And youth. LSU still has more talent than us. Now the good news is our qb is better. But it will be his first game in the new system. LSU doesn't have a new system. Advantage LSU.

[Tripp McNeely]

So what will be the thoughts if we get whipped?? Season over?? Just asking

We?re not getting whipped! This is a Mike Leach coached team with more talent than he?s ever had! The guy is not an unknown! His sample size and win percentage (at two historically garbage programs) is SOLID! We?re winning this game!

[Homedawg]

If we get whipped we will need to improve to get to 3 wins because if LSU has 2 more starters opt out they will struggle to go .500

We can think that State is going to be just average and LSU is too. Thinking we can beat this team doesn’t mean we think State is any better. How many people do they have to have defect before you will admit that we should be able to compete with them? We have had 3 straight top 25 recruiting classes. We aren’t playing sunbelt players on our side. If their 5 star safety quits (the rumor) and any other starter they will basically be playing with the same type players we are at every position outside one cornerback spot.

Ok. Obviously more defections matter. Clearly.

[ShotgunDawg]

This is the year to reset the culture.

I've accepted that we're going to see some horrific defense from out secondary at times, but, if those same young players, bring the wood and keep playing, I bet they do some things.

I'm really to see toughness and the football culture that represents MSU again.

Do that, and we'll be in a good spot following this season.

[Todd4State]

Agree. And an example that supports this is that the Nose Guard that opted out yesterday is currently 370 while LSU wants him at 330.

I think Coach O does somethings very well, but he?s simply not the CEO needed to maintain a program. My guess is that he doesn?t have the organizational skills nor the other CEO needed to maintain like Saban does.

It?s been said that Saban could run GE. He?s that type of CEO. Can you imagine O running a real company?

I think O caught lightening in a bottle but in the long run LSU is going to be a mess

Coach O has shown that he can be a good CEO coach but the problem is in addition to all the players he lost- he also lost his offensive guru in Brady and he also lost Aranda. This is also his first time to win on a level like this- and he doesn't know how to handle that as a head coach. At least not yet.

LSU is basically Auburn 2010. They had a phenomenal generational talent at QB and paired him with an offense that really showcased his skill set perfectly. They weren't really dominant on defense and they won all of their shootouts. Several games could have gone either way for them- Alabama, Texas, just off the top of my head.

I think long term LSU will actually be fine. Especially if they can land Manning in a few years. O can recruit. But I imagine after this year he is going to have to reset the culture after they get knocked on their ass a few times.

[Todd4State]

Our defense is not good at present. At all. Now the jucos will get better and help. Arnett is good. But he can't fix our problems w this talent. And youth. LSU still has more talent than us. Now the good news is our qb is better. But it will be his first game in the new system. LSU doesn't have a new system. Advantage LSU.

LSU has a new offensive guy and other than last year Ensminger has always been average at best. Which is probably why Brady got so much credit. Either that or Ensminger had a generational talent that even Croom couldn't screw up. And then LSU has a new DC in Pelini.

[Jarius]

Ok. Obviously more defections matter. Clearly.

Did you miss the part of my post where I linked the article where O said more defections are possibly coming? I am well aware that they currently have more talent than we do. It’s not by much at the moment and if 2 more defect as the article says could clearly happen then their problems with talent will be just as big as ours. We have freshman 4 stars we can put out there too but it doesn’t mean they are ready to play. If LSU has 2 more starters quit they will have turned over the entire starting lineup from last year and they will have 69 (nice) players on scholarship. That’s like being on major probation a year after you lost nothing but 1st and second round draft picks off your starting lineup.

[Homedawg]

We?re not getting whipped! This is a Mike Leach coached team with more talent than he?s ever had! The guy is not an unknown! His sample size and win percentage (at two historically garbage programs) is SOLID! We?re winning this game!

Our defense is sirmon bad. W a better coach.... it's not good. Trust me.

[Homedawg]

Did you miss the part of my post where I linked the article where O said more defections are possibly coming? I am well aware that they currently have more talent than we do. It’s not by much at the moment and if 2 more defect as the article says could clearly happen then their problems with talent will be just as big as ours. We have freshman 4 stars we can put out there too but it doesn’t mean they are ready to play.

I didn't miss anything dude.... carry on. Hope we win...

[Jarius]

I just don’t understand how LSU can have terrible news about more starters leaving every single day and the first thing people come on here and say is “we are going to suck”. Well, so are they. The same problems we have on defense because of young 4 stars having to play before they are ready is what they are having to do with nearly their entire roster outside of about 4 spots right now. We are no longer playing LSU. We are now playing the equivalent of a mid level SEC team. So yea, we will probably still lose because we are probably slightly below a mid level sec team at the moment but the game went from “we don’t have a snowballs chance in hell to win” to “if we play really well we can win no matter what they do”. That’s exciting to me. Sorry that it offends some people.

[ZedFedder]

I am optimistic. I think our defense won't be very good, but we have an offense that can hopefully make up some of that.

[BiscuitEater]

They'll still be running the same offense. Sorry, they are. one asst left.

And, I thought Joe Borrow had left. Chase back now, too? Thought 3/4 of last years starters + many backups left too along with 5 starters for Covid. My bad! Just one asst left!

[Todd4State]

I am optimistic. I think our defense won't be very good, but we have an offense that can hopefully make up some of that.

Our defense may very well be Sirmon bad or whatever. But I will say that I think being aggressive on defense may help mask some things here and there.

To me basically it comes down to how well our JUCO guys like Jordan Davis and Kyle Cass do and also if some of our freshmen like Emmanuel Forbes and Janari Dean can be contributors early in their career.

[Madisonmd]

Got to get Jordan Davis healthy. Not practicing last week, in a boot

[Dawgfan77]

I didn't miss anything dude.... carry on. Hope we win...

I tried not to post much from my sources who has been at practice since day one. But I feel like I need to interject some things.
Our offense is ahead of any other team ML has been at first year. We still need a little more consistent play from our 2s at WRs. This OL is better than 18 at WSU. Best RBs room staff has ever had.
Defense. Point blank better than expected but little depth at CB. Young guys are very talented just lack experience. DL and LB will be a major surprise this year. We have four big time DL and we have some young depth that will play. Some of those young guys will go 100% but they don't have a total grasp of the D just yet but talent is their. The JUCO class will be special. Point blank. Not a Sweat guy but Davis is the real deal when healthy. Have some players in the back 7 safety is deeper than CB which will mask some CB issues.
We will be better than you and others think according to what I'm told

[msbulldog]

I tried not to post much from my sources who has been at practice since day one. But I feel like I need to interject some things.
Our offense is ahead of any other team ML has been at first year. We still need a little more consistent play from our 2s at WRs. This OL is better than 18 at WSU. Best RBs room staff has ever had.
Defense. Point blank better than expected but little depth at CB. Young guys are very talented just lack experience. DL and LB will be a major surprise this year. We have four big time DL and we have some young depth that will play. Some of those young guys will go 100% but they don't have a total grasp of the D just yet but talent is their. The JUCO class will be special. Point blank. Not a Sweat guy but Davis is the real deal when healthy. Have some players in the back 7 safety is deeper than CB which will mask some CB issues.
We will be better than you and others think according to what I'm told

That sounds very good! Rep given.

[StateDawg44]

I just don?t understand how LSU can have terrible news about more starters leaving every single day and the first thing people come on here and say is ?we are going to suck?. Well, so are they. The same problems we have on defense because of young 4 stars having to play before they are ready is what they are having to do with nearly their entire roster outside of about 4 spots right now. We are no longer playing LSU. We are now playing the equivalent of a mid level SEC team. So yea, we will probably still lose because we are probably slightly below a mid level sec team at the moment but the game went from ?we don?t have a snowballs chance in hell to win? to ?if we play really well we can win no matter what they do?. That?s exciting to me. Sorry that it offends some people.

Totally reasonable.

No one is beating their chest about it or anything.

[FISHDAWG]

This is the year to reset the culture.

I've accepted that we're going to see some horrific defense from out secondary at times, but, if those same young players, bring the wood and keep playing, I bet they do some things.

I'm really to see toughness and the football culture that represents MSU again.

Do that, and we'll be in a good spot following this season.

this is where my expectations are at .... I enjoy reading and discussion on this but it really sounds like we are trying to talk ourselves into a win ... even with the loss of key players they will still have control over our game. The following two years are where higher expectations should begin. Objectively speaking we still really have absolutely no idea what to expect from this offense other than it HAS to be better than JoMo's BS of last year. I would expect the line to be above 12 by kickoff

[BrunswickDawg]

Our defense may very well be Sirmon bad or whatever. But I will say that I think being aggressive on defense may help mask some things here and there.

To me basically it comes down to how well our JUCO guys like Jordan Davis and Kyle Cass do and also if some of our freshmen like Emmanuel Forbes and Janari Dean can be contributors early in their career.

The funniest thing about being Sirmon bad on defense - we just about beat LSU that year.

[Homedawg]

I tried not to post much from my sources who has been at practice since day one. But I feel like I need to interject some things.
Our offense is ahead of any other team ML has been at first year. We still need a little more consistent play from our 2s at WRs. This OL is better than 18 at WSU. Best RBs room staff has ever had.
Defense. Point blank better than expected but little depth at CB. Young guys are very talented just lack experience. DL and LB will be a major surprise this year. We have four big time DL and we have some young depth that will play. Some of those young guys will go 100% but they don't have a total grasp of the D just yet but talent is their. The JUCO class will be special. Point blank. Not a Sweat guy but Davis is the real deal when healthy. Have some players in the back 7 safety is deeper than CB which will mask some CB issues.
We will be better than you and others think according to what I'm told
Hope you are right. I too have sources. Mine sources and your sources disagree about defense. At least up until now. As I said earlier, jucos need to step up and some do later in the year. But at present, we aren't good on d. And our wr are marginal at best. With our schedule still hope for 5-5. ML will win here, just to what magnitude.

[Jarius]

Hope you are right. I too have sources. Mine sources and your sources disagree about defense. At least up until now. As I said earlier, jucos need to step up and some do later in the year. But at present, we aren't good on d. And our wr are marginal at best. With our schedule still hope for 5-5. ML will win here, just to what magnitude.

The funny thing is I expect our record to be 4-6 this year. I think the major difference in you and I is how well we think LSU will be. There is no way they are anything better than a mediocre sec team if they have 2 more people leave as expected by many.

[ShotgunDawg]

Our defense may very well be Sirmon bad or whatever. But I will say that I think being aggressive on defense may help mask some things here and there.

To me basically it comes down to how well our JUCO guys like Jordan Davis and Kyle Cass do and also if some of our freshmen like Emmanuel Forbes and Janari Dean can be contributors early in their career.

Big time disagree with it being Sirmon level if Arnett is a good coach.

Then Sirmon defense was one which players didn’t know what they were doing. Our current talent level is good enough to avoid that so long as the players are well coached

[ShotgunDawg]

Hope you are right. I too have sources. Mine sources and your sources disagree about defense. At least up until now. As I said earlier, jucos need to step up and some do later in the year. But at present, we aren't good on d. And our wr are marginal at best. With our schedule still hope for 5-5. ML will win here, just to what magnitude.

I?m gonna guess your both right and your source either sees things differently or were at practice on different days.

We can have 10 posters watch an actual MSU game on TV that we lose by 10 points and 5 of those posters will say we got skull drug and the other 5 will point to 3 plays that changed the game and otherwise we would?ve won.

[Homedawg]

I?m gonna guess your both right and your source either sees things differently or were at practice on different days.

We can have 10 posters watch an actual MSU game on TV that we lose by 10 points and 5 of those posters will say we got skull drug and the other 5 will point to 3 plays that changed the game and otherwise we would?ve won.

That's a good point. Could be.....But it would have to be sees things differently.......Which as you pointed out is possible. But either way the wool here is way too heavy w our D.... I remain hopeful w the offense, Kylin could be special in space .....

[TrapGame]

I just can't see us being Sirmon bad on defense. I refuse to believe we will be THAT BAD. Average, below average but not totally putrid.

[Dawgfan77]

Hope you are right. I too have sources. Mine sources and your sources disagree about defense. At least up until now. As I said earlier, jucos need to step up and some do later in the year. But at present, we aren't good on d. And our wr are marginal at best. With our schedule still hope for 5-5. ML will win here, just to what magnitude.

Our D has some holes for sure. It staff is encouraged by the progress being made. What I am saying is that we are better than what some have said. Big thing here is we are flying to the ball and practices are physical. Verbatim. "I was here under Dan and these practices are more physical than under Dan".
Another thing to point out is that during fall camp it's usually 4 weeks of practice this year it's 6 weeks. We are in installation and repping now. This being said I'm not saying we are going 10-0 but I was told we have more talent than people think.
So I agree with you to some extent and disagree with you as well. I'm just ready to kick off

[confucius say]

That's a good point. Could be.....But it would have to be sees things differently.......Which as you pointed out is possible. But either way the wool here is way too heavy w our D.... I remain hopeful w the offense, Kylin could be special in space .....

What about marks in space?

[Duckdog]

Just beat lsu, damn it

[ShotgunDawg]

I just can't see us being Sirmon bad on defense. I refuse to believe we will be THAT BAD. Average, below average but not totally putrid.

Sirmon level defense means Arnett sucks and guys are out of position.

I’ll never forget that year watching an Auburn RB run a simple flat route in the end zone and go completely uncovered.

I think our D could be like Ole Miss’ last year under McIntyre if Arnett is good. Their defense wasn’t great or good but McIntyre was good and they were substantially improved from the year before and competed.

[TrapGame]

Sirmon level defense means Arnett sucks and guys are out of position.

I’ll never forget that year watching an Auburn RB run a simple flat route in the end zone and go completely uncovered.

I think our D could be like Ole Miss’ last year under McIntyre if Arnett is good. Their defense wasn’t great or good but McIntyre was good and they were substantially improved from the year before and competed.

Exactly, Sirmon was a horrible coach. Completely clueless. I just don't see Arnett being Sirmon level.

[Jarius]

The defense was extremely talented when Sirmon was here. A good DC turned those same players into an above average unit by simply having them in position. If we have Sirmon level talent we will be fine. The problem is that I don’t believe we have Sirmon Year talent at some spots.

[Jack Lambert]

Our D has some holes for sure. It staff is encouraged by the progress being made. What I am saying is that we are better than what some have said. Big thing here is we are flying to the ball and practices are physical. Verbatim. "I was here under Dan and these practices are more physical than under Dan".
Another thing to point out is that during fall camp it's usually 4 weeks of practice this year it's 6 weeks. We are in installation and repping now. This being said I'm not saying we are going 10-0 but I was told we have more talent than people think.
So I agree with you to some extent and disagree with you as well. I'm just ready to kick off

You will always have posters on here who will be negative about all things Miss State sports. They live for it. They hope for the worse and when things go better than what they say they disappear. Why I don't know but thanks for you being positives.

[ShotgunDawg]

The defense was extremely talented when Sirmon was here. A good DC turned those same players into an above average unit by simply having them in position. If we have Sirmon level talent we will be fine. The problem is that I don?t believe we have Sirmon Year talent at some spots.

Was it that talented?

That was Simmon?s FR year and before the JUCOs came in. That was the gap year where the talent was really young.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/team/430/tackle/index.html

[Prediction? Pain.]

Sirmon level defense means Arnett sucks and guys are out of position.

I?ll never forget that year watching an Auburn RB run a simple flat route in the end zone and go completely uncovered.

I think our D could be like Ole Miss? last year under McIntyre if Arnett is good. Their defense wasn?t great or good but McIntyre was good and they were substantially improved from the year before and competed.


Exactly, Sirmon was a horrible coach. Completely clueless. I just don't see Arnett being Sirmon level.


The defense was extremely talented when Sirmon was here. A good DC turned those same players into an above average unit by simply having them in position. If we have Sirmon level talent we will be fine. The problem is that I don?t believe we have Sirmon Year talent at some spots.

Off topic a little, but all this Sirmon talk had me interested to see if he was still a position coach a Cal, where he'd been since leaving Louisville's defense in ruins.

Well, he's still at Cal, but somehow he's continued rising the ranks. First an LB coach there, then last year co-DC with Tim DeRuyter (who's been solid there as DC for several years), and, what do you know, now he's officially the DC at Cal with DeRuyter being the co-DC. Why the change? Sirmon's still a hot commodity and they wanted to lock it down. Seriously. That's why (https://247sports.com/college/california/Article/Cal-football-Peter-Sirmon-defensive-coordinator-Tim-DeRuyter-linebackers-co-defensive-coordinator-associate-head-coach--144605793/):


The California Golden Bears have four new coaches on staff, but it was announced at Wednesday's first spring practice that the defensive coordinator roles will flip between Peter Sirmon and Tim DeRuyter.

DeRuyter has had the title of defensive coordinator for the past three seasons since Justin Wilcox assembled his first coaching staff in 2017. And Cal?s defense has been its strongpoint throughout that time.

But citing "staff continuity," Wilcox announced Wednesday that Peter Sirmon will take over as defensive coordinator, which includes play-calling duties. DeRuyter will remain at Cal as co-defensive coordinator and associate head coach.

Sirmon was previously hired by Wilcox in 2018, after recent one-year stops as a defensive coordinator at Louisville and Mississippi State.

Many reports this offseason had Sirmon high on the "wish list" of other Power-5 schools looking for a defensive coordinator. Cal ensured those offers would not sway him by making the promotion.

Gotta give it to the guy. His voodoo powers of persuasion are legitimately terrifying.

ETA: Sirmon's defense here was awful. But what we did last year under Shoop wasn't far behind.

[TrapGame]

Sirmon graduated from the Joey Freshwater School of Self Promotion.

[BeardoMSU]

Sirmon graduated from the Joey Freshwater School of Self Promotion.

Failing Upward University**

[Homedawg]

What about marks in space?

They think he's a difference maker down the road. He's gonna step in and play right now.

[Homedawg]

Exactly, Sirmon was a horrible coach. Completely clueless. I just don't see Arnett being Sirmon level.

The Sirmon level defense was meant by where would could possibly end up statistically. All i have heard about Arnett is praise. Give the guy Jeffery Simmons and bet he doesn't do what Sirmon did w him....

[ShotgunDawg]

The Sirmon level defense was meant by where would could possibly end up statistically. All i have heard about Arnett is praise. Give the guy Jeffery Simmons and bet he doesn't do what Sirmon did w him....

I don’t see a defense that bad as possible if Arnett is above average

That defense was 110 nationally. It’s virtually impossible with the amount of talent we have on defense to be this bad as long as guys play hard and are generally in the right spot

[hp22]

I don?t see a defense that bad as possible if Arnett is above average

That defense was 110 nationally. It?s virtually impossible with the amount of talent we have on defense to be this bad as long as guys play hard and are generally in the right spot

If we are running to the ball, then we are already better than the Sirmon product. Because that defense ran away from it.

[Jarius]

Was it that talented?

That was Simmon?s FR year and before the JUCOs came in. That was the gap year where the talent was really young.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2016/team/430/tackle/index.html

It was very similarly talented to what we have this year IMO. I may be off but Simmons as a freshman was still an outstanding player. Our biggest problem was no one knew what the hell to do. After 10 games we didn’t make Arkansas punt. We were getting worse throughout the year. That was the most embarrassing Defensive performance I have ever seen.

[TrapGame]

If we are running to the ball, then we are already better than the Sirmon product. Because that defense ran away from it.

Sirmon's philosophy was wait for the ball to come to you.

[msbulldog]

Off topic a little, but all this Sirmon talk had me interested to see if he was still a position coach a Cal, where he'd been since leaving Louisville's defense in ruins.

Well, he's still at Cal, but somehow he's continued rising the ranks. First an LB coach there, then last year co-DC with Tim DeRuyter (who's been solid there as DC for several years), and, what do you know, now he's officially the DC at Cal with DeRuyter being the co-DC. Why the change? Sirmon's still a hot commodity and they wanted to lock it down. Seriously. That's why (https://247sports.com/college/california/Article/Cal-football-Peter-Sirmon-defensive-coordinator-Tim-DeRuyter-linebackers-co-defensive-coordinator-associate-head-coach--144605793/):



Gotta give it to the guy. His voodoo powers of persuasion are legitimately terrifying.

ETA: Sirmon's defense here was awful. But what we did last year under Shoop wasn't far behind.

Damn, don't those head coaches watch film of his previous stops? SMH

[Prediction? Pain.]

I don?t see a defense that bad as possible if Arnett is above average

That defense was 110 nationally. It?s virtually impossible with the amount of talent we have on defense to be this bad as long as guys play hard and are generally in the right spot


It was very similarly talented to what we have this year IMO. I may be off but Simmons as a freshman was still an outstanding player. Our biggest problem was no one knew what the hell to do. After 10 games we didn?t make Arkansas punt. We were getting worse throughout the year. That was the most embarrassing Defensive performance I have ever seen.

2016 and 2019's defenses were almost identical in SEC play. Guess which one's which:

Total Defense (yds per game / yds per play)

Team A: 11th / 12th
Team B: 10th / 12th

Scoring Defense

Team A: 12th
Team B: 10th

Yards per pass attempt allowed

Team A: 14th
Team B: 13th

Yards per rush allowed

Team A: 11th
Team B: 9th

3rd Down defense

Team A: 10th
Team B: 11th

Red Zone TD% allowed

Team A: 13th
Team B: 9th

20+ yard plays allowed

Team A: 13th
Team B: 12th

National S&P+ defense ranking

Team A: 70th
Team B: 61st

Y'all see much difference there? Because I don't.

Not trying to harp on how bad the defense was last year but I think it's relevant to talking about the prospects for this year. Sirmon was inept here. But Shoop, a well-respected defensive mind, produced a terrible product here last year, too, and that performance has more direct bearing on 2020 than 2016. I'm really hoping that the S&C and discipline improvements, along with the scheme shift and whatever good juju Arnett's got going for him will right the ship. Grantham was able to do it in a big way in 2017, but he had 59% of 2016's production returning. Arnett's got less that 50% coming back this year. (48% as of January. I'm guessing it's a little lower now because of Lovett's and Jones' transfers to FSU.) Tall task. I'm stoked to see him give it a whirl, though.

[MrCoachKlein]

Team A was Sirmon's?

[BrunswickDawg]

Team A was Sirmon's?

Nope. Team A is 2019.

The lack of player continuity and S&C killed the defense last year. And, I think the defense quit a little due to them being so heavily impacted by tutorgate.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Team A was Sirmon's?


Nope. Team A is 2019.

The lack of player continuity and S&C killed the defense last year. And, I think the defense quit a little due to them being so heavily impacted by tutorgate.

Brunswick wins the prize! Which is nothing!

I don't know what killed the defense last year. But it sucked. Bad.

Shoop had a really, really weird run. As a defensive coordinator in the SEC for four straight years, he produced three defenses ranked 10th or worse in the SEC in just about every major defensive statistical category that there is. Scoring D, Total D, Red Zone D, Rushing D, etc. And then in the middle of all that suckitude, he produced the best defense in the entire country.

[BrunswickDawg]

Brunswick wins the prize! Which is nothing!

I don't know what killed the defense last year. But it sucked. Bad.

Shoop had a really, really weird run. As a defensive coordinator in the SEC for four straight years, he produced three defenses ranked 10th or worse in the SEC in just about every major defensive stat that there is. Scoring D, Total D, Red Zone D, Rushing D, etc. And then in the middle of all that suckitude, he produced the best defense in the entire country.

It really makes me think that there was so much motivated talent on that 2018 Defense that I could have coached them and had the top defense in the country. They really were just next level. 11 guys off that defense in NFL camps right now.

[confucius say]

They think he's a difference maker down the road. He's gonna step in and play right now.

I think he can be more explosive than Hill (not necessarily this year).

[confucius say]

2019 was without autry at dl, gay at lb, and Murphy at safety. Not to mention dantzler for almost half the year at CB. Give 2019 those 3 suspended guys and ******* culture (in which dantzler plays) and the 2019 defense is much better. Look at the difference those guys made when they played (ky, TN, OM, Ark). 2019 > 2016.