First taste of fall may be on the way

[starkvegasdawg]

For those sick of summer heat and humidity, the first front of the fall season looks to push through middle of next week. All indications is this will, at least for a few days, push highs back into the 70's and lows in the 50's. I'm normally not hyping anything weather wise this far out, but there has been a lot of model and run to run consistency with this. I'm fairly confident we get the front. My only hesitation is will it be as strong as advertised. Guess we'll know by next Wednesday/Thursday.

[Dawgface]

That would be wonderful. I'm more than ready for nice temps.

[Cooterpoot]

Thought it was going to be a pumpkin beer thread. Hellz yeah to cool weather!

[Indndawg]

How long will it last.
CFS couple of days ago had it lasting most of Sept

Now its about a week

[starkvegasdawg]

How long will it last.
CFS couple of days ago had it lasting most of Sept

Now its about a week

Latest run of the gfs is showing it hanging around in at least a modified version for around 5 days or so.

[Gypsy_RoadDawg]

I ready for it to arrive I'm tired of the soup and ready for a blast of Artic air if only minimal.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest models still looking good with the exception of the Euro that has the front washing out in NW Arkansas. The gfs is showing a high of next Thursday around 71 degrees.

[VandelayIndustries]

SVD, where would someone go to see these models?

[starkvegasdawg]

SVD, where would someone go to see these models?

I usually go to www.pivotalweather.com.

[RocketDawg]

If it happens it'll be pretty much on schedule. And very welcome. Last fall - especially September - was way above normal. Even October was very hot early on.

[VandelayIndustries]

Thanks

[starkvegasdawg]

Most of the models are still showing this. The exception is the Euro that has backed off the last run. The next batch will come in between midnight and 2:00am. See what is shown then.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest GFS hot off the press. It has sped the front up and now bringing it in during the day Wednesday. The temps it is calling for next Wednesday at 1:00pm range from 54 in Memphis, 64 in Starkville and 80 in Hattiesburg.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest gfs is still aggressive on this front. The latest euro has not come in so not sure if it is backed off or not. Last night the Canadian has backed off but this morning's run had it back in. So still optimistic we get this cold front in next week.

[RocketDawg]

It wasn't as strong as advertised, but still nice and a big drop in humidity. Low this morning was 59 in Huntsville and 58 in Decatur - very pleasant. Highs have been into the 80s intead of the 70s but feels great.

[starkvegasdawg]

It wasn't as strong as advertised, but still nice and a big drop in humidity. Low this morning was 59 in Huntsville and 58 in Decatur - very pleasant. Highs have been into the 80s intead of the 70s but feels great.

The main front was supposed to move in this coming up Wednesday. Now, if it makes it, it will be Friday. Haven't looked at any models since yesterday, but the highs next Friday could be down around 80. Still, not as advertised. It just couldn't break down this ridge we have over us. The drop in humidity we have today is due to a backdoor front that pushed through.

[Cooterpoot]

My nuts be sweatn' down here in south MS. No cool or dry air.

[RocketDawg]

My nuts be sweatn' down here in south MS. No cool or dry air.

The relative humidity bottomed out at 36% here this afternoon at the 3 o'clock reading (could have been a little lower, but that's not available yet) with a dewpoint of 57. That's just about perfect. Maybe the better air will push a little farther south.

[Cooterpoot]

It's dryer down here and a shade cooler. But still 70. Looks like it's going to stay below 90 today though. I'll take it! Bout died cutting the grass and working on cars yesterday.
Dr is pushing me to get more exercise and lose a few, but til the weather is drier/cooler I'm not down with it.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm about to lose my mind on the end of this week. Models were in decent agreement with a modified version of the front pushing though and slightly cooling things off. Now the euro is saying screw that it's going to be hot and the gfs is saying screw that the front is going to plow through like its hair was on fire and it's ass is catching and dramatically cool things off.

[Cooterpoot]

It's going to roll up in here. Or that's what my knees are telling me.

[msbulldog]

It's going to roll up in here. Or that's what my knees are telling me.

Poot your knees are telling you the same thing your doctors are telling you lose some weight.

[RocketDawg]

I'm about to lose my mind on the end of this week. Models were in decent agreement with a modified version of the front pushing though and slightly cooling things off. Now the euro is saying screw that it's going to be hot and the gfs is saying screw that the front is going to plow through like its hair was on fire and it's ass is catching and dramatically cool things off.

According to the Weather Channel (presumably they use the same models), the central part of the country is really going to cool off this week, but they don't have it pushing east. Denver will drop from about 100 to having snow - that's pretty dramatic, even for them.

I'm sure the NWS forecast offices coordinate their forecasts so they won't be out of line with each other, but locally now they're saying 50s and 70s for Saturday, but we're sort of easing into it with low to mid 60s (pretty normal) and lower 80s during the week.

[starkvegasdawg]

According to the Weather Channel (presumably they use the same models), the central part of the country is really going to cool off this week, but they don't have it pushing east. Denver will drop from about 100 to having snow - that's pretty dramatic, even for them.

I'm sure the NWS forecast offices coordinate their forecasts so they won't be out of line with each other, but locally now they're saying 50s and 70s for Saturday, but we're sort of easing into it with low to mid 60s (pretty normal) and lower 80s during the week.

Yeah, Denver is about to really nosedive on temps. That is the same front I originally thought was going to push through here and knock us back to the low 70's Wednesday. Now, I'm hoping it comes through Friday and cools us off to low 80's, but I haven't looked at models in a couple days. May go do that now.

[Cooterpoot]

Poot your knees are telling you the same thing your doctors are telling you lose some weight.

You've got a point

[redstickdawg]

Friday the forecast for the 11th was low 80's with morning temps in the mid 60's, now it is 94 and mid 70's what a bad joke. We can't predict better than this, there are certainly technical reasons but it is disheartening to get your hopes up for some cooler weather to only have the summer extend further, it sucks.

[starkvegasdawg]

Friday the forecast for the 11th was low 80's with morning temps in the mid 60's, now it is 94 and mid 70's what a bad joke. We can't predict better than this, there are certainly technical reasons but it is disheartening to get your hopes up for some cooler weather to only have the summer extend further, it sucks.

Right there with you. I was very much looking forward to a taste of fall. Reading the forecast discussions from the NWS they are just as frustrated. There's some fine details with major consequences the models are having trouble nailing down.