Tropical update

[starkvegasdawg]

Two very strong and decently organized waves are in the western and central Atlantic. Both are given high chances to become at least depressions. I expect one to become tropical storm Laura tomorrow. Both of these are moving west to WNW towards the Caribbean. The latest GFS is showing a strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane in the vicinity of the MS gulf coast next Friday. That said...that can and will change 437 times between now and then. Yesterday it had it going into Mexico just south of the TX border. I say that just for those with interests in the coastal region to start paying attention to things. There is also an absolute beast of a wave about to come off the African coast and begin its journey westward. We are rapidly ramping up towards the peak of the tropical system so this is nothing unusual. Any system that makes it into the Gulf will have cause for concern as water temps are bathtub level hot.

[TUSK]

Since Beardo is asleep at the wheel......

https://i.imgflip.com/1lxc2j.jpg

[Johnson85]

Two very strong and decently organized waves are in the western and central Atlantic. Both are given high chances to become at least depressions. I expect one to become tropical storm Laura tomorrow. Both of these are moving west to WNW towards the Caribbean. The latest GFS is showing a strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane in the vicinity of the MS gulf coast next Friday. That said...that can and will change 437 times between now and then. Yesterday it had it going into Mexico just south of the TX border. I say that just for those with interests in the coastal region to start paying attention to things. There is also an absolute beast of a wave about to come off the African coast and begin its journey westward. We are rapidly ramping up towards the peak of the tropical system so this is nothing unusual. Any system that makes it into the Gulf will have cause for concern as water temps are bathtub level hot.

I liked it better when people were oblivious until the storms became named storms or at least depressions.

[starkvegasdawg]

The second of the two waves has now become a depression. Current forecast track takes it into the Gulf and right up the western coast of FL as a tropical storm. Track and strength will continue to be fine tuned. The lead wave is still that and still trekking into the Caribbean. It is expected to become a depression in the next 2-3 days as it enters the southern Gulf. Model spread has it then anywhere from Mexico to Florida. So two systems to watch for possible Gulf impacts starting early next week. One possibility is that the current depression gets into the Gulf first and if it is stronger than forecast it could churn the water up bringing cooler water from the depths up to the surface weakening the other system. However, for that scenario to happen it would have to track more westward than forecast and be much stronger than forecast.

Lastly, the monster wave coming off Africa has already been given a medium chance of development, but as it moves across the Atlantic next week it is expected to encounter less conducive conditions for development. Just have to see what it does and if it can push through that hostile zone intact.

[Cooterpoot]

So, we're about to take a double-ended tropical dildo in the butt...Thanks 2020!!

[starkvegasdawg]

So, we're about to take a double-ended tropical dildo in the butt...Thanks 2020!!

Way too early to know. To illustrate how much trouble the models have with tropical systems the gfs is showing a major hurricane landfalling in LA next Thursday. The latest euro is showing sunny chamber of commerce weather for the entire gulf.

The Canadian model is showing the double dildo scenario with one end in FL and the other in Mexico.

[Dolphus Raymond]

I appreciate the updates. ED is where I follow severe weather.

[starkvegasdawg]

To use the term coined by cooter, the double dildo scenario (dds) is starting to look more likely. Both systems are now depressions and both making their was gulfward. Exact track still very uncertain but the entire gulf coast needs to be making plans just in case. Right now, I stress - right now, TX and FL look to be in the cross hairs from each end of the DDS. But just some subtle changes can change the course of one or both. Impacts look to be Monday - Tuesday of next week. If one gets close enough to the MS coast I just may find myself rolling south.

[basedog]

Well I wonder when last time two storms hit the Gulf at two different places.

Man I’m not looking forward to one or two.

This virus thingy has been a major hurt on logistics for power being restored!

[ScoobaDawg]

the south system in the Caribbean sea is now tropical depression 14.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1296464658803691521

[parabrave]

Hey Vegas did you ever follow Jeff Masters from weather underground? He used to have a blog on WUG but they stopped that a few months ago. That guy was money when it came to hurricane forecasting. It's still too early to forecast the one out in the Atlantic but the other one will most likely hit Texas. Sunday will give us a better window on where the Atl storm will be going.

[parabrave]

To use the term coined by cooter, the double dildo scenario (dds) is starting to look more likely. Both systems are now depressions and both making their was gulfward. Exact track still very uncertain but the entire gulf coast needs to be making plans just in case. Right now, I stress - right now, TX and FL look to be in the cross hairs from each end of the DDS. But just some subtle changes can change the course of one or both. Impacts look to be Monday - Tuesday of next week. If one gets close enough to the MS coast I just may find myself rolling south.

Let us know if you come down. We can all meet in the Gulfport Harbor and watch the storm come in/

[DownwardDawg]

2020.... the gift that keeps on giving.

[starkvegasdawg]

Let us know if you come down. We can all meet in the Gulfport Harbor and watch the storm come in/

If I do end up heading that way I'll be sure and do that. May need some navigating help getting around closed roads or evac routes.

[magrooder]

Way too early to know. To illustrate how much trouble the models have with tropical systems the gfs is showing a major hurricane landfalling in LA next Thursday. The latest euro is showing sunny chamber of commerce weather for the entire gulf.

The Canadian model is showing the double dildo scenario with one end in FL and the other in Mexico.

SVD, do you consider one of the tracking models to be more reliable than the others? Seems like the euro gets them more right than the others, but that's just from a layman's observation.

[starkvegasdawg]

SVD, do you consider one of the tracking models to be more reliable than the others? Seems like the euro gets them more right than the others, but that's just from a layman's observation.

I'm not sure to be honest. There are so many models for tropical systems. The euro and its ensembles are usually very reliable models, but some events it'll be way off and one of the others will nail it. Next storm the euro will be dead on. What makes tropical systems to hard to forecast is the slightest of variables can influence it. They are affected by smaller scale features that global models have a hard time with.

[RocketDawg]

Gotta remember that this is still pretty much the beginning of the tropical system. I think the Weather Channel folks said we still have about 80% of the storms still in front of us. Michael was in October two years ago.

These two systems look like they could be dangerous, and there are likely plenty more to come. I'm glad my son and his family moved from Panama City Beach back to Atlanta.

[parabrave]

Hey VDog. Down here in Gulfport its been tropical all day. Just looked at the radar and there is a low developing over the Slidell area. Hopefully it doesn't move south over the sound overnight,

[ScoobaDawg]

It's almost been 87 years since 2 named storms hit the us on the same day.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1296546563381030912

14 - soon to be laura will be the stonger storm it appears, so heads up to la/tx area. 13 will be slower to develop and will be fighting against the outflow of 13-Laura is the current thought this afternoon as it approaches florida.

Lots to watch. will know a lot more by sat night.

[Commercecomet24]

With the way 2020 is going I wouldn't even be surprised if a Sharknado happened.

[parabrave]

It's almost been 87 years since 2 named storms hit the us on the same day.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1296546563381030912

14 - soon to be laura will be the stonger storm it appears, so heads up to la/tx area. 13 will be slower to develop and will be fighting against the outflow of 13-Laura is the current thought this afternoon as it approaches florida.

Lots to watch. will know a lot more by sat night.
e
This looks eerily similar to the latest model. One good thing for the coast is the the western system will push the other one more easterly into the panhandle or even up the gold coast/

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest runs now have both becoming minimal hurricanes. One interesting thing to see is if they get close enough to each other to initiate the Fujiwhara effect. Basically, a rare phenomenon where the two systems rotate around each other or merge into one big storm. As of right now, both systems should miss the MS coast, but if this were to happen it could pull one or both closer to us.

[Cooterpoot]

2020 is just clowning us at this point. I fully expect sharknadoes from this Fujiwhara.

[starkvegasdawg]

As the one system continues to have its track pushed further west I have now put in my intention at work to go chase it if things hold. I need a landfall at or west of Pensacola to pull the trigger. Right now I think I'm going to get that.

[AROB44]

As the one system continues to have its track pushed further west I have now put in my intention at work to go chase it if things hold. I need a landfall at or west of Pensacola to pull the trigger. Right now I think I'm going to get that.

Please not west of P'cola. That's where I am. I'm pulling for east of P'cola.

[starkvegasdawg]

13L is now Laura. Forecast track continues to put it near Pensacola in the early morning hours of Wednesday. Some of the spaghetti models are still trying to shift it further west to near the Gulf Shores area. Will see if that trend continues by midday when the next batch of model runs come in.

[parabrave]

The GFS has been the most consistent track with landfall in the panhandle.

[RocketDawg]

13L is now Laura. Forecast track continues to put it near Pensacola in the early morning hours of Wednesday. Some of the spaghetti models are still trying to shift it further west to near the Gulf Shores area. Will see if that trend continues by midday when the next batch of model runs come in.

Were there any changes at midday?

[starkvegasdawg]

Were there any changes at midday?

Indeed. The gfs has about killed it off and a lot of the other guidance has shifted it west almost far enough to clear LA. About to check some other models now.

[RocketDawg]

Indeed. The gfs has about killed it off and a lot of the other guidance has shifted it west almost far enough to clear LA. About to check some other models now.

That's a pretty big change with just a matter of hours between runs.

[starkvegasdawg]

That's a pretty big change with just a matter of hours between runs.

It gets better. The euro now has it hitting central LA as a mid range tropical storm. The Canadian brings it in over Biloxi as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. I have never seen this much spread amongst models this close to potential landfall. I hope they all agree on a solution by Sunday when I have to let my boss know about taking off work.

ETA: official nhc track is now coming into Biloxi as a hurricane Wednesday afternoon. Check back tonight and I'm sure it'll have changed to South Carolina as a blizzard.

[ScoobaDawg]

That's a pretty big change with just a matter of hours between runs.

Happens a lot on individual runs.. it's why you want to look at multiple runs to make a consensus.

GFS is coming in now. biggest thing will be watching is how strong the ridge drapped over the se is, which keeps laura from going straight up the leg of fl.. and instead keeps pushing her west.
which will have an effect on td 14 if it can ever get spun up.

[ScoobaDawg]

It gets better. The euro now has it hitting central LA as a mid range tropical storm. The Canadian brings it in over Biloxi as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. I have never seen this much spread amongst models this close to potential landfall. I hope they all agree on a solution by Sunday when I have to let my boss know about taking off work.

ETA: official nhc track is now coming into Biloxi as a hurricane Wednesday afternoon. Check back tonight and I'm sure it'll have changed to South Carolina as a blizzard.

You know hurricane forecasting is already a crap shot 5 days out..throwing a second storm into the gulf... just makes things crazy to predict. Sunday night likely is a good mark to know something better, does Laura go over the mountains in Hispaniola? if so, does she survive and at what intensity. Generally stronger storms want to curve north vs riding west, so then that ridge comes into the picture.

Just have to see when these things get going. Laura technically shouldn't be a TS currently.. it's more like an open wave with the mid and low level centers are stretched out from each other.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMweather/status/1296907337018609664

[Cooterpoot]

Looks like that dildo theory is coming to fruition. One west of us and one right at us. Seeing forecasts for up to 10 inches of rain in central MS.

[parabrave]

as of 5"30 the GFS, wrf and Mon have it coming into Galveston. The official NHC track is still on a Katerina track.

[ScoobaDawg]

newest gfs slams cental louisana with a major cane at 964mb wed night. td14 never develops into much. much to watch

[starkvegasdawg]

newest gfs slams cental louisana with a major cane at 964mb wed night. td14 never develops into much. much to watch

Now waiting for the 00z run.

[Cooterpoot]

newest gfs slams cental louisana with a major cane at 964mb wed night. td14 never develops into much. much to watch

Wait, What?

[parabrave]

Wait, What?

Bye Cooter and Offshore dog. better get your pirous ready.

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog you better get to grand Isle or Port Fourchen before they close the highway to get your best videotaping spots.. T

[Cooterpoot]

Bye Cooter and Offshore dog. better get your pirous ready.

Riding it out in Buras. Nothing more than a Cat 1.

[ScoobaDawg]

Riding it out in Buras. Nothing more than a Cat 1.

As mentioned.. only one model run, but 964 would be cat 3.

and we officially have Tropical storm Marco
https://twitter.com/KHOUBlake11/status/1297008884696207362

[ScoobaDawg]

I will also post that the HWRF is kinda the drunk uncle at times and overdoes things but thats 3 runs that have Laura reaching strong Cat4, 930mb or lower area and landing on the ms/al border..

Everyone on the gulf coast basically from Houston to the handle of Fl needs to keep an eye on both of these storms, especially starting sunday night when should have a lot better idea and be within 3 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082118/hwrf_ref_13L_41.png

[DownwardDawg]

I will also post that the HWRF is kinda the drunk uncle at times and overdoes things but thats 3 runs that have Laura reaching strong Cat4, 930mb or lower area and landing on the ms/al border..

Everyone on the gulf coast basically from Houston to the handle of Fl needs to keep an eye on both of these storms, especially starting sunday night when should have a lot better idea and be within 3 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082118/hwrf_ref_13L_41.png

It's getting my attention now. Supposed to leave for Nashville Tuesday morning and return home on Thursday. I'll be watching closely. Hate to leave the house with a major storming coming and really hate driving home in pouring rain. Depending on track obviously.

I constantly check StormGeo as that's what we have access to in the offshore oil industry, but you guys are fantastic. Please keep up the posts!! This is my first place to look always.

[DownwardDawg]

Riding it out in Buras. Nothing more than a Cat 1.

I've been flying out of Boothville PHI forever. I don't even know how many years anymore. We just moved to the Houma heliport recently and I haven't gotten used to it yet.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm supposed to be in Montgomery this week on business with stops in Phenix City and Columbus, Ga. Don't need to postpone this trip but dang don't want to get stuck in mess.

[TimberBeast]

Man I live on the MS Coast and supposed to be in Houston next weekend for a golf tournament. Looks like I?m screwed either way.

[parabrave]

Riding it out in Buras. Nothing more than a Cat 1.

Now thats the spirit. Rode out Camille and Betsy when I was a kid 1/2 mile from the beach in Mississippi City. Katerina in Biloxi. Lost everything except the gym shorts I was wearing. It's funny watching your car float down the street and wondering what to do when the water reaches your chest. So have fun in Buras.

[PKADogs55]

With the way 2020 is going I wouldn't even be surprised if a Sharknado happened.

Pretty funny .... however I'm so done with this year.

[Cooterpoot]

Still seeing nothing but Cat 1 predictions overall.

[parabrave]

Well looks like its going into Texas. Well lets get back to Football.

[starkvegasdawg]

Well looks like its going into Texas. Well lets get back to Football.

In the words of a certain espn football announcer...not so fast my friend. Air Force recon has found Marco intensifying faster than anticipated with 65mph winds on the east side. That could push Laura's landfall back east. How much, if any, remains to be seen.

[parabrave]

Well when it comes to the football predictor I'll be wearing a ragin cajun hat

[ScoobaDawg]

Geez... That would be horrible for this area of la/ms

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1297241573739171843

[DownwardDawg]

And Laura is looking more like it could become pretty strong.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hearing grumblings there may be some significant changes to the forecasts at 5:00pm. And not for the better.

[Cooterpoot]

First storm shifting toward us and second getting stronger. Great!

[RocketDawg]

Hearing grumblings there may be some significant changes to the forecasts at 5:00pm. And not for the better.

Hurricane watch issued for the northern Gulf coast. If Marco follows the updated path, the Mississippi coast as well as Mobile and Gulf Shores could be in for a beating. And it looks like both storms could make landfall at close to the same place. Really weird things happening in 2020.

[RocketDawg]

First storm shifting toward us and second getting stronger. Great!

Cooter - Did you say you are in Buras? Might want to think about moving inland a little if the forecast keeps intensifying things. My aunt lived and taught school in Buras many years ago.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hurricane watch issued for the northern Gulf coast. If Marco follows the updated path, the Mississippi coast as well as Mobile and Gulf Shores could be in for a beating. And it looks like both storms could make landfall at close to the same place. Really weird things happening in 2020.

Yep. I'm now officially heading down tomorrow. Starting to get things prepped tonight.

[Uncle Ruckus]

I live in south Hancock. For you to leave I know it?s significant. What are you seeing?

[starkvegasdawg]

I live in south Hancock. For you to leave I know it?s significant. What are you seeing?

Official forecast right now is landfall around NOLA as a cat 1 Monday afternoon. It wouldn't shock me if it ended up as a 2 but that's just me pulling stuff out my butt.

[RocketDawg]

Yep. I'm now officially heading down tomorrow. Starting to get things prepped tonight.

Well, be careful. Remember some storm chasers were almost caught in the storm surge during Michael. These storms shouldn't be that strong, but you never know. It's 2020. It'll be good to have this year be 20-20 in hindsight.

[TimberBeast]

I know things are still up in the air but weather Dawgs what do you think my chances are of driving from the MS coast to Houston early Friday morning?

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog check your Messages

[starkvegasdawg]

Well, be careful. Remember some storm chasers were almost caught in the storm surge during Michael. These storms shouldn't be that strong, but you never know. It's 2020. It'll be good to have this year be 20-20 in hindsight.

Yeah, that was Brett Adair driving near the coast during a cat 5. He wants footage way worse than I do.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vdog check your Messages

Got it and just replied.

[DownwardDawg]

Yeah, that was Brett Adair driving near the coast during a cat 5. He wants footage way worse than I do.

Lol. Yeah, I loved that video but that was absolutely ridiculous in my book.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Looks like life in the southwest part of Mississippi is going to suck for a couple days.

[parabrave]

Hey Cooter help out SVD with getting to Buras for the storms.

[ScoobaDawg]

I know things are still up in the air but weather Dawgs what do you think my chances are of driving from the MS coast to Houston early Friday morning?

Hard to know for certain, due to unknown intensity and landfall amount. but major road of I-10 i would think you would be alright... but keep an eye out on it up until leaving.

If the ridge builds in stronger and pushes Laura over to la/tx border.. that's more time over water..

[basedog]

I know things are still up in the air but weather Dawgs what do you think my chances are of driving from the MS coast to Houston early Friday morning?

Let me warn u of major work on I 10 in Lake Charles and Beaumont. It?s brutal to say the least, long delays.

[DownwardDawg]

Let me warn u of major work on I 10 in Lake Charles and Beaumont. It?s brutal to say the least, long delays.

Yes. Terrible. Thanks for the reminder. When I go to MD Anderson I'm gonna go straight across on 84 then cut down.

[Uncle Ruckus]

Still a day or so for us to get a good idea for Laura, but she seems to be pushing more and more west doesn’t she?

[TimberBeast]

Let me warn u of major work on I 10 in Lake Charles and Beaumont. It?s brutal to say the least, long delays.

Yes thanks for reminding me of that mess. We went through there on the way to a tournament in college station a few weeks ago and it was awful. I could only imagine how bad it would be in pouring rain.

[starkvegasdawg]

Still a day or so for us to get a good idea for Laura, but she seems to be pushing more and more west doesn’t she?

Track has been pushing west last couple days but may be starting to settle in on the northern gulf coast. Still expect some fine tuning in exact path but hopefully no more wild swings.

[ScoobaDawg]

Far from a definite set path but both gfs and euro have Laura hitting near houston on thurs around 959mb which roughly equals cat 3. But still have to watch to see what the models say once she leaves Hispaniola in the next 12-18 hours.
Currently, she is firing a ton of convection south of the island.. trying to skirt the mountains it appears and stay stronger at least this morning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir


Marco is now at 70mph and may be a huricane before midday. will have to see, forecast to not keep hurricane strength up to landfall due to strong shear and it's very small size. will also limit the amount of surge that will occur...as of now.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgFUbRlWsAAglws?format=jpg

[starkvegasdawg]

I've officially decided not to drive down for Marco. He has such a small wind field I'd have to be in La to get hurricane force winds if he makes it. If I drive down for a hurricane I want to be on the coast to see the waves and surge. Now focus turns to Laura. Models are still all over the place on her. Nobobody knows where she's going...typical woman. Marco is probably her BF asking where she wants to go and all he gets in response is, "I don't know. Where ever you wants to go is fine with me."

Marco: how about La?
Laura: nooo. Not in the mood for Cajun.
Marco: Well how about TX?
Laura: Maybe. Not really feeling bbq, though.
Marco: MS?
Laura: Ehh...My bff Katrina went there. Kind of want to do something different.
Marco (now through gritted teeth): so where do you want to go?
Laura: anywhere is fine. You choose.
Marco: well I found a nice place in the French Quarter so that's where I'm going.
Laura: But it's dirty there and I'm not dressed for anyplace nice.
Marco (Now starting to tear up): Miami?
Laura: You know Cuban food gives me heart burn.

[DownwardDawg]

I've officially decided not to drive down for Marco. He has such a small wind field I'd have to be in La to get hurricane force winds if he makes it. If I drive down for a hurricane I want to be on the coast to see the waves and surge. Now focus turns to Laura. Models are still all over the place on her. Nobobody knows where she's going...typical woman. Marco is probably her BF asking where she wants to go and all he gets in response is, "I don't know. Where ever you wants to go is fine with me."

Marco: how about La?
Laura: nooo. Not in the mood for Cajun.
Marco: Well how about TX?
Laura: Maybe. Not really feeling bbq, though.
Marco: MS?
Laura: Ehh...My bff Katrina went there. Kind of want to do something different.
Marco (now through gritted teeth): so where do you want to go?
Laura: anywhere is fine. You choose.
Marco: well I found a nice place in the French Quarter so that's where I'm going.
Laura: But it's dirty there and I'm not dressed for anyplace nice.
Marco (Now starting to tear up): Miami?
Laura: You know Cuban food gives me heart burn.

Lmao!!! My life.......

[msbulldog]

I've officially decided not to drive down for Marco. He has such a small wind field I'd have to be in La to get hurricane force winds if he makes it. If I drive down for a hurricane I want to be on the coast to see the waves and surge. Now focus turns to Laura. Models are still all over the place on her. Nobobody knows where she's going...typical woman. Marco is probably her BF asking where she wants to go and all he gets in response is, "I don't know. Where ever you wants to go is fine with me."

Marco: how about La?
Laura: nooo. Not in the mood for Cajun.
Marco: Well how about TX?
Laura: Maybe. Not really feeling bbq, though.
Marco: MS?
Laura: Ehh...My bff Katrina went there. Kind of want to do something different.
Marco (now through gritted teeth): so where do you want to go?
Laura: anywhere is fine. You choose.
Marco: well I found a nice place in the French Quarter so that's where I'm going.
Laura: But it's dirty there and I'm not dressed for anyplace nice.
Marco (Now starting to tear up): Miami?
Laura: You know Cuban food gives me heart burn.

Yeah I've had those conversations. Hell when we go through a fast food drive thru my wife takes 10 minutes at the menu board. Rep given!

[was21]

Life in southwest Mississippi always sucks

[Offshore Dawg]

Life in southwest Mississippi always sucks

Where is your SPS aviator

[RocketDawg]

Very good and accurate. :)

You could always drive down to Vicksburg and use the casino as a staging area. Then go whereever Laura decides to come ashore. At least you'd have some fun.

[parabrave]

Hey SVdog. you could go to Lake Charles hang out at there Casino then head either to Port Arthur of Cameron when the storm gets closer. One thing about Cameron, when you get there you're there. Port Arthur leaves you a escape route. Incidentally which model are you following for Marco? GFS has it coming straight into Biloxi then up Hwy 49. The NHC and HRFW are both in agreement that it gets to the mouth of the River then due west. What say you>

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey SVdog. you could go to Lake Charles hang out at there Casino then head either to Port Arthur of Cameron when the storm gets closer. One thing about Cameron, when you get there you're there. Port Arthur leaves you a escape route. Incidentally which model are you following for Marco? GFS has it coming straight into Biloxi then up Hwy 49. The NHC and HRFW are both in agreement that it gets to the mouth of the River then due west. What say you>

I think it's gonna bust the French Quarter wide open.

[parabrave]

I think it's gonna bust the French Quarter wide open.

windshear gonna tear it apart/

[msstate7]

I think it's gonna bust the French Quarter wide open.

Like hit it head on? This isn't expected to be too severe, right?

[starkvegasdawg]

windshear gonna tear it apart/

Not looking likely. Next update comes in at 10.

[starkvegasdawg]

Like hit it head on? This isn't expected to be too severe, right?
Supposed to be a cat 1 so not too bad. Rain will probably be biggest issue since Nola basically sits in a toilet bowl.

[ScoobaDawg]

Like hit it head on? This isn't expected to be too severe, right?

Not really. but never underestimate and check you local sources. But Marco is getting shredded and likely won't be a hurricane..heck might barely be a tropical storm by landfall tomorrow. the strongest part is on the ne side where the mid circulation is pushed off the llc. the lower circulation will get pulled away from the precip and pushed to the west with little precip support.

Laura.. is going to land either in La or Tx.. all depends on how strong the high pressure over the gulf building in is(this is what is going to push marco's remains west).
Also the gfs has initalized 3 straight runs in the wrong spot of the center of circulation. it keeps showing laura closer to being on top of hispaniola earlier.. and it's tranding south of. by being south it will spend more time over the carribean sea and be better orginzed when it get's into the gulf. that's the different in cat 2 or higher storm.. plus depending if it goes to tx instead of la is more time over the bathtub of the gulf.

Lots to watch on laura over the next 24 hours.

[DownwardDawg]

Not real. never underestimate and check you local sources. But Marco is getting shredded and likely won't be a hurricane..heck might barely be a tropical storm by landfall tomorrow. the strongest part is on the ne side where the mid circulation is pushed off the llc. the lower circulation will get pulled away from the precip and pushed to the west with little precip support.

Laura.. is going to land either in La or Tx.. all depends on how strong the high pressure over the gulf building in is(this is what is going to push marco's remains west).
Also the gfs has initalized 3 straight runs in the wrong spot of the center of circulation. it keeps showing laura closer to being on top of hispaniola earlier.. and it's tranding south of. by being south it will spend more time over the carribean sea and be better orginzed when it get's into the gulf. that's the different in cat 2 or higher storm.. plus depending if it goes to tx instead of la is more time over the bathtub of the gulf.

Lots to watch on laura over the next 24 hours.

Old school offshore hand here. I've been telling my family that Laura will be a Cat 3 at landfall.

[parabrave]

Not real. never underestimate and check you local sources. But Marco is getting shredded and likely won't be a hurricane..heck might barely be a tropical storm by landfall tomorrow. the strongest part is on the ne side where the mid circulation is pushed off the llc. the lower circulation will get pulled away from the precip and pushed to the west with little precip support.

Laura.. is going to land either in La or Tx.. all depends on how strong the high pressure over the gulf building in is(this is what is going to push marco's remains west).
Also the gfs has initalized 3 straight runs in the wrong spot of the center of circulation. it keeps showing laura closer to being on top of hispaniola earlier.. and it's tranding south of. by being south it will spend more time over the carribean sea and be better orginzed when it get's into the gulf. that's the different in cat 2 or higher storm.. plus depending if it goes to tx instead of la is more time over the bathtub of the gulf.

Lots to watch on laura over the next 24 hours.
. Not a drop at my house in Biloxi.

[TimberBeast]

. Not a drop at my house in Biloxi.

Same here in OS, doesn?t look like we?ll get anything for a while either. Winds are calm.

[parabrave]

Not looking likely. Next update comes in at 10.

Check out the GOES16 Channel 13 SAT. The tops of the clouds are being blown to the NE. And what in the hell is that going ashore around Apalachicola and ST Marks?

[ScoobaDawg]

Check out the GOES16 Channel 13 SAT. The tops of the clouds are being blown to the NE. And what in the hell is that going ashore around Apalachicola and ST Marks?

that's just outflow from marco that's been blown away from the CoC.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

[starkvegasdawg]

Marco downgraded to tropical storm.

[ScoobaDawg]

Marco is being torn apart. the MLC (upper level of storm) is decoupling already tonight and separating from the LLC (lower level of the storm). It will not strengthen anymore.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1297716804240977923

I will say after looking at the hwrf and gfs again for marco... as mentioned it's dying and will be stripped apart. with MS being on the right side of the storm people on the coast should be on the lookout for possible tornadoes. But also note the models show that the convection that moves onshore without the guidance of the llc and stick around for 12 hours.

[starkvegasdawg]

So glad I didn't burn two days of vacay to head down for that storm. Now to watch Laura but I don't think she makes a hard enough right turn for me to go down. Oh well. More days for the fall severe weather season.

[starkvegasdawg]

I will say this about Laura...I just don't have a good feeling. Looking very well organized after prolonged land interaction. When she gets out over the open hot tub that is the Gulf we may an explosion in intensification. And the further west she waits to make landfall the stinger. Just my gut feeling. Not based on anything else. Just one of those I saw a satellite image and I got that hollow feeling in the pit of my stomach.

[DownwardDawg]

I will say this about Laura...I just don't have a good feeling. Looking very well organized after prolonged land interaction. When she gets out over the open hot tub that is the Gulf we may an explosion in intensification. And the further west she waits to make landfall the stinger. Just my gut feeling. Not based on anything else. Just one of those I saw a satellite image and I got that hollow feeling in the pit of my stomach.


Cat 3

[parabrave]

that's just outflow from marco that's been blown away from the CoC.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

Thank for posting that website. Been on it for the last 2 days. I hate it that Jeff masters left Weatherundergroung. That guy was money when it came to predictions.

[Bothrops]

I will say this about Laura...I just don't have a good feeling. Looking very well organized after prolonged land interaction. When she gets out over the open hot tub that is the Gulf we may an explosion in intensification. And the further west she waits to make landfall the stinger. Just my gut feeling. Not based on anything else. Just one of those I saw a satellite image and I got that hollow feeling in the pit of my stomach.

I feel the same, but no expert here.

[ScoobaDawg]

Marco has lost almost all of its convection. the hurricane models think it blows back up this morning with more convection but not certain.

Hurricane warnings cancelled now for marco. pressure up to 1003 and winds down to 60mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/240856.shtml

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watches west of Intracoastal City Louisiana and
from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida
border have been discontinued.

All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

[parabrave]

Marco has lost almost all of its convection. the hurricane models think it blows back up this morning with more convection but not certain.

Hurricane warnings cancelled now for marco. pressure up to 1003 and winds down to 60mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/240856.shtml

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watches west of Intracoastal City Louisiana and
from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida
border have been discontinued.

All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

It's starting it's westward movement. The rain is starting to move west.

[yjnkdawg]

Thank for posting that website. Been on it for the last 2 days. I hate it that Jeff masters left Weatherundergroung. That guy was money when it came to predictions.


Levi Cowan is really good concerning tropical systems. Ref recommended tropical tidbits, as the site to go too. a few years ago.

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog, did you or Scooba see tha video of the squall that hit Key West? 70 MPH winds, I think Laura is going to be bigger than most people think!

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vdog, did you or Scooba see tha video of the squall that hit Key West? 70 MPH winds, I think Laura is going to be bigger than most people think!

I haven't seen it but not surprised. Laura, I think, has a great shot at being a major hurricane.

[parabrave]

I haven't seen it but not surprised. Laura, I think, has a great shot at being a major hurricane.

You might want to head to Lake Charles or Lafayette. You will probably get some storm surge there.

[Rejlector84sports]

What's the possibility that Laura will move less west and more north?

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the possibility that Laura will move less west and more north?

Right now not looking likely. They said, I rule nothing out. Current recon is showing the storm stronger than what was expected. It's also tracking more south than forecast. The more southerly track favors a more westward landfall. It also favors a stronger hurricane.

[starkvegasdawg]

Laura now forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall near the TX/LA border.

[starkvegasdawg]

I just saw the NAM3k model is forecasting Laura to be 887mb at landfall. That would be an Atlantic basin record and a hurricane of Biblical proportions. It's also not going to happen. Laura is more than likely going to make Landfall as a strong cat 3 to possibly cat 4 at around 950mb. Cat 5 storms usually start around 920mb so they model is predicting a storm 33mb under that. I just can't fathom that happening. 33mb is more than the entire range of a hurricane category. For some perspective, Hurricane Camille was 900mb. No doubt some jackasses on social media will see that and start making fear porn click bait posts. Just ignore them.

[msstate7]

Will this affect Gulfport at all Wednesday and Thursday?

[basedog]

Laura being a strong hurricane will be smaller in size than Rita and Ike. Those two were booger bears to work for restoring power especially Rita which came on the coattails of Katrina.

Also IF Laura comes in the Tx/La border is possibly the best case to hit because of rural areas especially north.

Now back to the experts who really know hurricane's better than I, I've just worked so many hurricanes over the past 20 years and have learned anything can and does happen with size and damage that can occur.

I sure pray it comes in lower than predicted, surge is gonna be out of sight it looks like.

[starkvegasdawg]

Will this affect Gulfport at all Wednesday and Thursday?

If it tracks as far south as it looks it should just be a glancing blow at best. Maybe some waves and rip currents.

Laura is now a hurricane.

[basedog]

Looks like Port Arthur and Beaumont. Cat 3 but looks like good news is somewhat a small Hurricane in size.

[StateDawg44]

Laura now forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall near the TX/LA border.

What qualifies as a "major" hurricane?

[basedog]

What qualifies as a "major" hurricane?

120 mph cat 3.

[ScoobaDawg]

Recon planes are out in Laura.., just made first pass and pressure is down to 984mb on first pass (they do 2 or 3 passes) and Laura is "bombing" away with hot towers (very tall thunderstorms with very cold tops) that shows the convection near the center is growing stronger. The eyewall is almost complete and an eye could appear sometime tomorrow when convection clears out.

In fact 7pm update just came in 7:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 25
Location: 25.0?N 89.0?W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200825/b29f4ef44000b8aebbee076dbc009fae.jpg


All those pops of color are lightning, which when you see in tropical systems shows strong intensification.
https://i.imgur.com/fK1iCOL.gif

[TimberBeast]

I?m still planning to drive to Houston Friday morning leaving the MS Coast at 6am. It looks like Laura is supposed to hit just east of Houston and then curve North East out of the area quickly. What do you guys think my chances are of safely making it there Friday?

[starkvegasdawg]

I?m still planning to drive to Houston Friday morning leaving the MS Coast at 6am. It looks like Laura is supposed to hit just east of Houston and then curve North East out of the area quickly. What do you guys think my chances are of safely making it there Friday?

Storm is supposed to move in Wednesday night so should be well clear by Friday.

[TimberBeast]

Storm is supposed to move in Wednesday night so should be well clear by Friday.

Thanks that?s what I keep seeing, it?s hard to think that it will just be gone Friday but so far that?s what it looks like. Thank y?all for all the updates.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks that?s what I keep seeing, it?s hard to think that it will just be gone Friday but so far that?s what it looks like. Thank y?all for all the updates.

Just be prepared, depending on the route you take, to roads possibly being closed or delayed due to damage or a large swath of businesses closed due to no power. I'd make sure you stayed full on gas.

[TimberBeast]

Just be prepared, depending on the route you take, to roads possibly being closed or delayed due to damage or a large swath of businesses closed due to no power. I'd make sure you stayed full on gas.

We?re going for a junior golf tournament for my daughter, they emailed us tonight and said it?s still on. We?re I10 to I12 to i10, should be ok as of now I hope.

[parabrave]

We?re going for a junior golf tournament for my daughter, they emailed us tonight and said it?s still on. We?re I10 to I12 to i10, should be ok as of now I hope.

Depends on how much damage is done and if they shut the interstate down for emergency vehicles only. Plus all the support vehicles that will be heading that way.

[ScoobaDawg]

Laura is blowing up...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgVOuQ-WAAEksy8?format=jpg&name=medium

1m info
.LAURA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...
1:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 25.6?N 90.2?W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[RocketDawg]

I?m still planning to drive to Houston Friday morning leaving the MS Coast at 6am. It looks like Laura is supposed to hit just east of Houston and then curve North East out of the area quickly. What do you guys think my chances are of safely making it there Friday?

It's quite possible that parts of I-10 (your assumed route) will be flooded and still underwater by Friday morning. Laura's expected to now be a Cat 4 at landfall, and you'll be driving right through where the worst part of the storm was.

[Johnson85]

We?re going for a junior golf tournament for my daughter, they emailed us tonight and said it?s still on. We?re I10 to I12 to i10, should be ok as of now I hope.

Depending on where the storm hits, I would not count on staying on I-10. I-10 is a good bit further north from the coastline in that area compared to in MIssissippi, but it still gets pretty close to inland water starting around Lake Charles, and even if the area around I-10 is not flooded, that's still going to be the primary east west route for emergency vehicles. The 27/82 route I am guessing will be just about impassable at that point. Also may have a ton of traffic from people that evacuated trying to get back as soon after the storm as possible.

If you try the I-10 route, definitely stock up on gas before you go and try not to stop anywhere close to the storm, as a lot of those gas stations might not be working and the ones that do need to serve the people in the area. I made the mistake of driving through the panhandle at night about five days after a pretty significant hurricane and damn near ran out of gas, and felt like a shit when I finally found a station open with gas because I felt like there wasn't going to be enough gas for another day or two and I was taking even five gallons on my way back from vacation.

[SheltonChoked]

We?re going for a junior golf tournament for my daughter, they emailed us tonight and said it?s still on. We?re I10 to I12 to i10, should be ok as of now I hope.

Just make sure you won't need gas from about Lafayette to Houston. I drove back to Houston from MS 2 days after Rita hit there. Roads are elevated enough and were clear. Just no power from Baton Rouge to Houston.

[starkvegasdawg]

Air Force hurricane hunters in the storm now. Pressure continuing to fall. Down to 960mb which is down from 963 two hours ago. This will put winds at or above 120mph.

[Johnson85]

Just make sure you won't need gas from about Lafayette to Houston. I drove back to Houston from MS 2 days after Rita hit there. Roads are elevated enough and were clear. Just no power from Baton Rouge to Houston.

You familiar enough with the area around the TExsa LA border to know what kind of damage they're about to see? I see from the map that there is a good bit of wildlife refuge between the coast and most of the population. Are the populated areas still pretty low lying? Or did they populated the higher areas? Going to be bad regardless if it gets to Cat 4, but going to make a huge difference in the damage from storm surge if people are generally on land above say 15ft, or maybe even just 12ft.

[redstickdawg]

You familiar enough with the area around the TExsa LA border to know what kind of damage they're about to see? I see from the map that there is a good bit of wildlife refuge between the coast and most of the population. Are the populated areas still pretty low lying? Or did they populated the higher areas? Going to be bad regardless if it gets to Cat 4, but going to make a huge difference in the damage from storm surge if people are generally on land above say 15ft, or maybe even just 12ft.

That stretch of I-10 while more remote from the gulf than in Ms is very low and flat. TWC is predicting that flooding could go as far inland as 30 miles, that would cetain affect I-10 around Lake Charles. Smart move to stay away from I-10, I also expect that it will be closed except for emergency traffic and or locals.

[MaroonFlounder]

Are they certain that the TEX-LA border is the impact spot?

[StarkVegasSteve]

Just looking at the wind gusts on this thing...….it's gonna be bad wherever it hits.

[BrunswickDawg]

My daughter just sent me a clip from the 11 am update warning of "unsurvivable storm surge". I don't recall having seen that in an NWS update before

[parabrave]

Hey Scooba and SVD which chasers are you in touch with and which ones will be live streaming from the storm? I saw some heading that way the other day, Caravaning out of Gulfport, but I didn't recognize any of them.

[parabrave]

I?m still planning to drive to Houston Friday morning leaving the MS Coast at 6am. It looks like Laura is supposed to hit just east of Houston and then curve North East out of the area quickly. What do you guys think my chances are of safely making it there Friday?

You better check with TXDOT to see if they allow private vehicle on I10. Usually interstates are open to only emergency vehicles for a couple of days after a major storm. After Katerina they had closed off 10 and 49 to everyone except emer vehicles.

[Cooterpoot]

I do a lot of business around Houston. Most of those folks have let me know they're evacuating. I wouldn't attempt to go. Going to be devastation from Lafayette to Houston.

[Cooterpoot]

Just saw on tv where a buoy is reporting almost 40 ft waves.

[DeviousDawg]

Aircraft recon just recorded ~140mph winds in the east eye wall. This is gonna be a bad, bad storm.

[parabrave]

Just saw on tv where a buoy is reporting almost 40 ft waves.

Go to NWS NDBC. Thats the bouy center.

[DeviousDawg]

And as I speak, Laura has been upgraded to a cat 4 with 140 mph winds. 15-20+ feet storm surge around the eye wall, ~10 feet storm surge reaching out well beyond that range, 140+ mph winds, surge reaching 30+ miles into SW LA, and 20-30+ foot waves on top of all that surge. The aftermath will be unprecedented for the area. Only silver lining is that it spared Houston and Nola, for the most part.

[MetEdDawg]

River in Lake Charles is expected to crest at 15.6 feet. Previous record was 13 feet. Apparently half the city floods at 13 feet. Add another almost 3 feet to that and I can't imagine the devastation. Reports of 40 foot waves near the center of Laura as well. Also saying storm surge could reach up to 30 miles inland.

Anyone in the area needs to be gone yesterday.

[TheRef]

I think Laura is going to end up peaking at a high-end Cat 4 based upon everything that I'm seeing. Shallow waters of the bayou leading up to the coastline is going to prevent Laura from making landfall as a 5. Storm surge is going to be the killer in this storm, as the NHC has already laid out pretty plainly. NWS Lake Charles has already evacuated and has handed operations over to Brownsville, TX. I'm pretty sure that's the first time in a while that NWS Lake Charles has evacuated for a hurricane. Just like how Katrina's killing factor wasn't the wind, same will go with Laura. However, Laura's winds won't help matters at all. I've seen storm surge estimates of going 30 miles inland.

With all of this in mind, please heed the warnings of your authorities. Everyone should have evacuated already, and if they haven't it's pretty much too late at this point. It's going to be a long 48-72 hours for the LA and TX coastlines.

[TheRef]

Images courtesy of NWS Lake Charles

http://www.weather.gov/images/lch/graphicast/image12.png?8aa50e006f5fd50c3c5c1f70d0409238

http://www.weather.gov/images/lch/graphicast/image14.png?8aa50e006f5fd50c3c5c1f70d0409238

[SheltonChoked]

That stretch of I-10 while more remote from the gulf than in Ms is very low and flat. TWC is predicting that flooding could go as far inland as 30 miles, that would cetain affect I-10 around Lake Charles. Smart move to stay away from I-10, I also expect that it will be closed except for emergency traffic and or locals.

The issue is I-10 is the high road thru there, the next best route is probably through De Ridder and Jasper, The issue with that route is it's a lot of pine forests and it's a 2 lane road. I'd be more concerned of getting in the way with recovery there than on I-10
Going further North might help, but you'll end up going way north. There are not many crossings of the Sabine around there.

[yjnkdawg]

You better check with TXDOT to see if they allow private vehicle on I10. Usually interstates are open to only emergency vehicles for a couple of days after a major storm. After Katerina they had closed off 10 and 49 to everyone except emer vehicles.



This + (JMO) -I wouldn't drive to Houston, with all the devastating destruction that should occur east of the metro and in to SW LA (and other parts of LA), unless it was an emergency, or my job required me to do so.

[SheltonChoked]

You familiar enough with the area around the TExsa LA border to know what kind of damage they're about to see? I see from the map that there is a good bit of wildlife refuge between the coast and most of the population. Are the populated areas still pretty low lying? Or did they populated the higher areas? Going to be bad regardless if it gets to Cat 4, but going to make a huge difference in the damage from storm surge if people are generally on land above say 15ft, or maybe even just 12ft.

I drive it pretty frequently and have had to detour around accidents several times. There is not another good route without swinging way north. Even then, it's through timberland and small roads and town that wlll be in recovery as well

That area has been hit hard with Hurricanes lately (Rita 2005, Humberto 2007, Eduard 2008, Issac 2012, Cindy 2017, Harvey 2017, Imelda 2019) so they will be ready.

Ike brought 22 feet of storm surge up the Sabine in 2008, and they have made improvements since then.

Both Lake Charles and Beaumont have bay's to the gulf and thus expose more land to surge than a flat coastline, and it's a Cat 4 storm, so it will still be bad. But it will still be travel able.

Check out https://its.txdot.gov/ITS_WEB/FrontEnd/default.html?r=BMT&p=Beaumont&t=map Before you leave for road conditions.

[TheRef]

Chasers already calling into 911 saying that they are stuck due to storm surge and trapped in their vehicles.

Pressure down to 944mb.

[TheRef]

https://twitter.com/SaraSneath/status/1298665444405108736

[RocketDawg]

Chasers already calling into 911 saying that they are stuck due to storm surge and trapped in their vehicles.

Pressure down to 944mb.

They're already stuck? Hate to be critical, but it sounds like they've gone where they shouldn't have gone.

[RocketDawg]

https://twitter.com/SaraSneath/status/1298665444405108736


That doesn't sound good. Isn't that bridge long and high? I've never been to Lake Charles, but from the video I see on television it seems to be pretty vulnerable to the winds.

[RocketDawg]

And as I speak, Laura has been upgraded to a cat 4 with 140 mph winds. 15-20+ feet storm surge around the eye wall, ~10 feet storm surge reaching out well beyond that range, 140+ mph winds, surge reaching 30+ miles into SW LA, and 20-30+ foot waves on top of all that surge. The aftermath will be unprecedented for the area. Only silver lining is that it spared Houston and Nola, for the most part.

It's missing the huge metro of Houston, and the pretty large one of New Orleans, but the Lake Charles area is still about 200K so some major damage, or devastation, will happen. Looking at the census.gov data, Lake Charles doesn't seem to be all that affluent an area, so I suspect the housing there is not able to withstand such an impact. I hope everybody has left town. And have taken their pets with them.

[TheRef]

They're already stuck? Hate to be critical, but it sounds like they've gone where they shouldn't have gone.

Agreed...dumb 17ers doing dumb 17er things

[TheRef]

Laura may be trying to hit Cat 5 on us. Latest 1-minute satellite imagery shows that convection is strengthening along the eye wall and she is trying to spin up faster. If we get a EWR (eye-wall replacement) in time, I wouldn't be surprised. Of course, this is all assuming that all else remains equal.

[AROB44]

Lots of chemical/oil plants at Lake Charles. Can't imagine the "soup" that will be created due to the storm surge.

[Johnson85]

I think Laura is going to end up peaking at a high-end Cat 4 based upon everything that I'm seeing. Shallow waters of the bayou leading up to the coastline is going to prevent Laura from making landfall as a 5. Storm surge is going to be the killer in this storm, as the NHC has already laid out pretty plainly. NWS Lake Charles has already evacuated and has handed operations over to Brownsville, TX. I'm pretty sure that's the first time in a while that NWS Lake Charles has evacuated for a hurricane. Just like how Katrina's killing factor wasn't the wind, same will go with Laura. However, Laura's winds won't help matters at all. I've seen storm surge estimates of going 30 miles inland.

With all of this in mind, please heed the warnings of your authorities. Everyone should have evacuated already, and if they haven't it's pretty much too late at this point. It's going to be a long 48-72 hours for the LA and TX coastlines.

Yup. I understand it had been a while since something like Katrina when Katrina happened. But there has been Katrina, Ike, and Michael in the last 15 years now. There's really no excuse for the "I made it through previous storms" mindset. Some people have to stay for work, and I get some people just can't afford to travel for a few days to get out of the way, but you are just making things hard on first responders if you stay when you can leave.

[TheRef]

Latest update from NHC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgXyzrOVAAAAoR_?format=png&name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgX0gq_U0AATGUu?format=jpg&name=large

[starkvegasdawg]

Chasers already calling into 911 saying that they are stuck due to storm surge and trapped in their vehicles.

Pressure down to 944mb.

Play stupid games win stupid prizes. I'm sure Brett Adair is one of those brain surgeons trying to drive around in a damn near cat 5.

[SheltonChoked]

That doesn't sound good. Isn't that bridge long and high? I've never been to Lake Charles, but from the video I see on television it seems to be pretty vulnerable to the winds.

It's not that long but it is high, and looks like it was made in 1850.

They usually route Traffic to I-210 around lake Charles to avoid this bridge.

[redstickdawg]

They're already stuck? Hate to be critical, but it sounds like they've gone where they shouldn't have gone.

Darwinism at its finest.

[starkvegasdawg]

Winds now 145mph. May run out of time before it hits cat 5.

[parabrave]

That doesn't sound good. Isn't that bridge long and high? I've never been to Lake Charles, but from the video I see on television it seems to be pretty vulnerable to the winds.

That Bridge and the Bridge City Bridge should be torn down. The Bypass in lake Charles always has problems also.

[parabrave]

Chasers already calling into 911 saying that they are stuck due to storm surge and trapped in their vehicles.

Pressure down to 944mb.

Where are they at? If they're in Cameron they;re screwed.

[starkvegasdawg]

Where are they at? If they're in Cameron they;re screwed.

My radar app shows chaser locations and I'm seeing some on the beach and others less than 10 miles away in swamp land. Most are I-10 and north, though.

[Commercecomet24]

Praying for all those in the path of this thing. Looks like it's gonna be ugly.

[Dolphus Raymond]

I heard it will come ashore with winds of at least 150mph. Combine this with a huge storm surge and much of SW Louisiana will be devastated.

[TheRef]

Recon flight about to probe Laura. Update incoming.

[DeviousDawg]

Recon just picked up ~155mph winds in the NE eye wall, cat 5.

[DeviousDawg]

To be more specific, it looks to me like it is 157-158 mph winds in the NE eye wall. I would be very surprised if they don?t upgrade it to a cat 5 or atleast 155 mph cat 4 at the 7pm update.

[DeviousDawg]

Wow, pressure measurements show 937mb in the eye. This thing is an absolute beast.

Common theme in the last 5 years or so, models underestimate these things when they get in the Gulf with favorable conditions ahead. I will say, the HWRF had it nailed 2 days ago, they were predicting land falling winds around 150-155 mph while the Weather Channel (GFS) was predicting a cat 2 at landfall. It?s time for some of these models to adjust for, wait for it.... Climate Change.

[RocketDawg]

Hurricane hunter aircraft just measured wind at 155.

[parabrave]

Checkout the Nexrad radar out of Lake Charles.

[RocketDawg]

Recon just picked up ~155mph winds in the NE eye wall, cat 5.

Almost Cat 5. Starts at 157 I believe. It's almost academic at this point though.

It took a while for the NWS to rate Michael as a 5 but they finally did. I think Laura will be categorized as a 5 by the time all is said and done.

[RocketDawg]

Wow, pressure measurements show 937mb in the eye. This thing is an absolute beast.

Common theme in the last 5 years or so, models underestimate these things when they get in the Gulf with favorable conditions ahead. I will say, the HWRF had it nailed 2 days ago, they were predicting land falling winds around 150-155 mph while the Weather Channel (GFS) was predicting a cat 2 at landfall. It?s time for some of these models to adjust for, wait for it.... Climate Change.

Yep.

[RocketDawg]

Checkout the Nexrad radar out of Lake Charles.


https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LCH

[RocketDawg]

Wasn't Camille at 180+ steady with gusts to 220 or so? Wind speeds could only be estimated because anemomoters were destroyed.

I remember that storm well. I was in school at MSU and all the coverage we had then was radio. Bob Hope came to Meridian and did a fund raiser.

[starkvegasdawg]

Official update is 150mph. Scary thing is the eye is still contracting. Storm is still trying to intensify.

[MetEdDawg]

I'm a tad shocked they didn't bump to 155. Looked like hurricane hunter measure 134 knot winds. That would get it above 150 and almost to 155.

Doesn't matter really except for record keeping at this point though. This is going to be one of the worst natural disasters in our history period.

[parabrave]

Wasn't Camille at 180+ steady with gusts to 220 or so? Wind speeds could only be estimated because anemomoters were destroyed.

I remember that storm well. I was in school at MSU and all the coverage we had then was radio. Bob Hope came to Meridian and did a fund raiser.

I remember Camille, Lived in a subdivision in Mississippi City right north of the tracks. 3 things I will always remember. 1. The wind that night was a loud shrill Whistle. 2. how quiet it was the next day. All you heard was chainsaws and helicopters, no birds, nothing else and lastly going with my dad along with other dads to the well to get our muddy water, then boiling it so we had something to drink. And Nixon coming to Gulfport Airport, we loved him down here.

[TimberBeast]

Thanks for all the info guys, we?ve decided to definitely not attempt that drive to Houston. Probably going to have to eat the $300 tournament fee but oh well. Crazy to me they didn?t cancel it but most of the kids are from Texas so they don?t have to make the drive west.

[Dolphus Raymond]

I?m afraid Cameron is going to be wiped out.

[starkvegasdawg]

8:00pm update has winds still at 150 but pressure down to 937mb.

[Cooterpoot]

Saw where they're seeing 175 mph winds in it.

[redstickdawg]

Wasn't Camille at 180+ steady with gusts to 220 or so? Wind speeds could only be estimated because anemomoters were destroyed.

I remember that storm well. I was in school at MSU and all the coverage we had then was radio. Bob Hope came to Meridian and did a fund raiser.

I went on a school trip to Keesler AFB in October '69, they showed us a photo of the radar screen taken during Camille indicating 17 tornadoes in Biloxi at one time. The airmen also mentioned that their anemometer had blown away when the winds speed was at 220 mph. They were routinely measuring 190-200 mph and then a gust at 220 took the system down.
I was 8 at the time and rode out that storm at my grandparents home on Reynoir St in Biloxi, I night that I will never forget or want to relive.

[yjnkdawg]

On my RadarScope Pro phone app, looking at the Lake Charles Radar Site, it looks like the back eye wall is breaking up some. I doubt that will effect the eye wall wind speed much at all, but maybe it will to some extent.

[parabrave]

I went on a school trip to Keesler AFB in October '69, they showed us a photo of the radar screen taken during Camille indicating 17 tornadoes in Biloxi at one time. The airmen also mentioned that their anemometer had blown away when the winds speed was at 220 mph. They were routinely measuring 190-200 mph and then a gust at 220 took the system down.
I was 8 at the time and rode out that storm at my grandparents home on Reynoir St in Biloxi, I night that I will never forget or want to relive.

Hey did you hear about Nadine Sekul?

[redstickdawg]

Hey did you hear about Nadine Sekul?

yes, very very sad. Tommy Mallet also was with her in the boat.

[ScoobaDawg]

10pm update. no change in wind (still 150mph) and no more recon missions so it will go down for now at a Cat 4 officially.

They don't like bumping to cat5 so close to land fall.. it will likely be adjusted after the face.

[ScoobaDawg]

On my RadarScope Pro phone app, looking at the Lake Charles Radar Site, it looks like the back eye wall is breaking up some. I doubt that will effect the eye wall wind speed much at all, but maybe it will to some extent.

Not really breaking up that's just Radar attenuation.

Can see clearly here... sadly it's not weakening at all

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

[ScoobaDawg]

Concerning the difference in damage vs wind speed.
https://twitter.com/CTVStanfield/status/1298656199353794561

[starkvegasdawg]

Not really breaking up that's just Radar attenuation.

Not so sure. For the last hour or so it looked like dry air was trying to work it's way in on the south and west side. I think it may have finally been successful. I saw pressure has edged up slightly, too. I think Laura has maxed out.

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1298818322763526145

[TimberBeast]

Everything still looking the same? Looks like it?s still heading right at Lake Charles and is going to mess it up pretty bad.

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1298864149804363776

Both of the radars in the path went down around 12:55am, everyone is using Houston instead for now.

Lake Charles got the NE side of the eyewall so the worst, and is now barely in the eye. Josh Morgerman set up in Sulphur and hit the eye did on after it shifted a little more WNW upon landfall.

[ScoobaDawg]

3am update - so far it sounds as the surge hasn't been that bad. worst reported surge is 9 foot on the coast. Lake Charles is not having problems per Brett Adair.
Back side of the eye should be hitting lake charles shortly.

About to pass out.. see what the results are once the sun comes up.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgaY9KeXgAA7bTY?format=png&name=900x900

[parabrave]

Alot of damage to Cantories hotel.

[msbulldog]

Thanks for all the info guys, we?ve decided to definitely not attempt that drive to Houston. Probably going to have to eat the $300 tournament fee but oh well. Crazy to me they didn?t cancel it but most of the kids are from Texas so they don?t have to make the drive west.

I-10 eastbound is closed at the Texas/Louisiana state line, and I-10 westbound is closed west of the Atchafalaya Basin

[Johnson85]

3am update - so far it sounds as the surge hasn't been that bad. worst reported surge is 9 foot on the coast. Lake Charles is not having problems per Brett Adair.
Back side of the eye should be hitting lake charles shortly.

About to pass out.. see what the results are once the sun comes up.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgaY9KeXgAA7bTY?format=png&name=900x900

That would be awesome if true. Still going to be plenty of wind damage, but that's way more manageable. Lots of people with wind damage will be able to repair their home without taking it down to the studs. And many will be able to continue living in them. Can't do that if you take four feet of water into the house.

ETA: I assume that's 9 ft above sea level? And not 9 ft surge on top of high tide, which I think it was when the storm rolled in?

ETA II: This says 11 ft, and that storm came in after tide had receded. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/live-blog/hurricane-laura-makes-landfall-category-4-early-thursday-live-updates-n1238373 11 ft is still high, but even if they haven't had a major storm in a while, there shouldn't be a lot of residential structure at or below 11 ft. To my knowledge, almost all of the flood zones on the coast had a BFE of at least 11ft from basically as soon as the NFIP was set up, and those areas not in a flood zone were all pretty much above 11ft, unless they were well off the coast and more subject to river flooding than surge.

[FISHDAWG]

Alot of damage to Cantories hotel.

Was he at the LaBerge or the Golden Nugget ? .... I did the exterior wall panels on the Golden Nugget Hotel tower a few years back and we designed and built for Miami-Dade Hurricane impact resistance and I am curious as to how they performed

[Johnson85]

Some video:

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/videos/301732480916146

not sure how far north this is, but there's tons of wind damage but they have boats in marinas and even what I think is a pontoon boat on a lift in a boat house, so I am thinking that this is pretty significant wind damage pretty far north, or at least far enough north to be beyond much of a storm surge.

[starkvegasdawg]

Threat now will start to transition to a tornado/flood threat. MS, being on the east side will be in the tornado threat area so stay weather aware still.

[parabrave]

Was he at the LaBerge or the Golden Nugget ? .... I did the exterior wall panels on the Golden Nugget Hotel tower a few years back and we designed and built for Miami-Dade Hurricane impact resistance and I am curious as to how they performed

Your Exterior wall panel are falling over Monroe about now.

[Johnson85]

Was he at the LaBerge or the Golden Nugget ? .... I did the exterior wall panels on the Golden Nugget Hotel tower a few years back and we designed and built for Miami-Dade Hurricane impact resistance and I am curious as to how they performed

What is "Miami-Dade Hurricane impact resistance"? Have they adopted something in addition to the IBC?

If I'm not mistaken, a lot of fortified construction or hurricane construction or whatever you want to call it is built to withstand 130MPH winds. Just curious if that's what Miami-Dade requires (in which case it would make sense that there was a lot of damage) or if they have a higher standard.

[BrunswickDawg]

What is "Miami-Dade Hurricane impact resistance"? Have they adopted something in addition to the IBC?

If I'm not mistaken, a lot of fortified construction or hurricane construction or whatever you want to call it is built to withstand 130MPH winds. Just curious if that's what Miami-Dade requires (in which case it would make sense that there was a lot of damage) or if they have a higher standard.

Yes, the State of Florida actually developed the code, and Miami-Dade was the first to adopt it. It was first done in 2010, so the IBC has caught up to it a lot since then.

[FISHDAWG]

Yes, the State of Florida actually developed the code, and Miami-Dade was the first to adopt it. It was first done in 2010, so the IBC has caught up to it a lot since then.

Well done Brunswick .... yes we design and construct for wind loads for 130 mph or a little greater but the Miami-Dade is for impact resistance ... they test it by shooting a 2x4 from a cannon at 100 mph and the cladding and composite construction must prevent complete penetration ... we added special mesh and cementious coating to our panels to accommodate this ...... and from what little I can tell from some video our panels stood up to the storm - it was the roof that was torn off

[BrunswickDawg]

Well done Brunswick .... yes we design and construct for wind loads for 130 mph or a little greater but the Miami-Dade is for impact resistance ... they test it by shooting a 2x4 from a cannon at 100 mph and the cladding and composite construction must prevent complete penetration ... we added special mesh and cementious coating to our panels to accommodate this ...... and from what little I can tell from some video our panels stood up to the storm - it was the roof that was torn off

I've done a good bit of work with Florida architecture firms and some builders, so I've gotten familiar with some practices that would be good here too. When I worked for a local state agency, I was part of the in-house project team for a $30 million convention center that is beachside and we used the Florida code as our standards. I'm also currently working on our local historic district design guideline update, and we are incorporating flood mitigation guidelines to plan for the eventual need to elevate historic homes.

If you make the choice of living coastal areas, these are the costs of continuing to do so.

[FISHDAWG]

I've done a good bit of work with Florida architecture firms and some builders, so I've gotten familiar with some practices that would be good here too. When I worked for a local state agency, I was part of the in-house project team for a $30 million convention center that is beachside and we used the Florida code as our standards. I'm also currently working on our local historic district design guideline update, and we are incorporating flood mitigation guidelines to plan for the eventual need to elevate historic homes.

If you make the choice of living coastal areas, these are the costs of continuing to do so.

True ... I also did the new hotel for the Silver Slipper on the beach and we had to build break away walls on the lower level (parking level) to allow for storm surge

[ScoobaDawg]

Too soon? Just another day in hurricane season. Lower chance of developing as of now though.
https://twitter.com/spann/status/1299065108170145796

[starkvegasdawg]

Too soon? Just another day in hurricane season. Lower chance of developing as of now though.
https://twitter.com/spann/status/1299065108170145796

I was just coming here to post this. Already some people on Facebook saying another monster hurricane possible. Is one? Yes. Is it likely? Absolutely not. Way to early to know how these will play out. Good news is they are well out in the Atlantic so plenty of time to watch them.

[msbulldog]

What is "Miami-Dade Hurricane impact resistance"? Have they adopted something in addition to the IBC?

If I'm not mistaken, a lot of fortified construction or hurricane construction or whatever you want to call it is built to withstand 130MPH winds. Just curious if that's what Miami-Dade requires (in which case it would make sense that there was a lot of damage) or if they have a higher standard.

I built several Beach houses in Gulf Shores all under the Miami Dade building code back in 2006, 2007. Some of the particulars are stainless steel strapping from the pilings (12 sq' min.) to the roof joists. All decking, wall sheathing and roof decking was nailed 4" on the perimeter and 6" in the field. There are many other items concerning blow out walls on ground level, high end specs for windows and outside walls had to be 2x6. I have built homes in several jurisdictions and the Miami Dade code is the stiffest I have ever seen. Google it there are many more things that I did't have the patience to type here. Hail State!

[ScoobaDawg]

I was just coming here to post this. Already some people on Facebook saying another monster hurricane possible. Is one? Yes. Is it likely? Absolutely not. Way to early to know how these will play out. Good news is they are well out in the Atlantic so plenty of time to watch them.

Yep... let that yellow turn to red in a couple days and I'll start following but as of now.. it's just another wave in a big ole ocean to me.

Very interested to see what data comes out about the lack of storm surge. Forward speed being so fast. hitting at lower tide, the storm continuing to strengthen up till landfall instead of being strong and then weakening upon landfall and becoming bigger...
look forward to seeing what Josh's pressure guage got when he was in the eye cleanly in Sulphur vs Reed and everyone in Lake Charles which wasn't as clean on the east side.

Thankful it sounds like it was not as bad as predicted.. still will be a very costly but thankfully it didn't hit houston or new orleans head on.
I'm hearing the death count is now at 4.

[ScoobaDawg]

this won't be the norm but impressive job done by the NHC

https://twitter.com/jaycordeira/status/1298971268092497922

[ScoobaDawg]

Last shot from the Lake Charles radar...
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/678456926387830795/748557997243891722/Screenshot_20200827-100155.png

What it looks like this morning...and before
https://twitter.com/LindseySlaterTV/status/1299003672035291136

[ScoobaDawg]

First video from Cameron that I have seen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ku6AvbOY2IU

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/PowerOutage_us/status/1299092252065763328

[Dawgpile]

Holly Beach got wiped out by Rita in '05 and was still only partially rebuilt by yesterday morning. Time to start all over again....


https://youtu.be/GR9nisAFejE

[FISHDAWG]

Your Exterior wall panel are falling over Monroe about now.

Nope ... my exterior walls held up just fine .... https://abc13.com/hurricane-laura-lake-charles-casinos-hits-golden-nugget/6392604/