The tropics are heating up.

[starkvegasdawg]

Tropical storm Gonzalo formed this morning in the open Atlantic and all indications are Hannah should be in the Gulf by the time we wake up in the morning. If the Gulf system is named it will be the earliest H named storm since Harvey in 2005. Soon to be named Hannah poses little risk to the MS/AL coast with the possible exception of a heightened rip tide risk. Gonzalo, will be the one to watch. It should become a hurricane in a day or two before weakening back to a storm as it enters the southern Caribbean. Once it gets there all bets are off on future tracks and strength. There is just simply no way to know this far out. It's just as likely to hit MS as it is Mexico right now and it could do it anywhere from a tropical depression to a major hurricane. Or it could just fizzle out like a Bert Stare rumor post.

Beyond the horizon waves are starting to move off the coast of Africa and the next one up will be in a couple days. These will all have to be watched as the tropical Atlantic slowly becomes more favorable for development out in the open waters. The peak of hurricane season is not until September 10 so we're just now getting started good.

[Commercecomet24]

2020 the year that won't die!

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks for the info as always SVD! Your info is invaluable!

[starkvegasdawg]

Here are the latest model forecast tracks for Gonzalo. As you can see there is a large discrepancy in where this is going to go. By early morning next Tuesday it should be nearing Jamaica. After that...who knows. I will say this. For those of you on social media you'll probably start seeing clickbait posts showing this hitting the US with the strength of Camille and Katrina combined. Ignore those posts. They know not of what they speak.

https://scontent.fjan1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/115948175_10158638689715842_7572972915759468851_o. png?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=8024bb&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_ohc=sWmMr6sjP84AX8tuLba&_nc_ht=scontent.fjan1-1.fna&oh=f5230f21c969080a05a2a181077ac633&oe=5F40A900

[FISHDAWG]

again ... thanks for the heads up ... also, loved the "Fizzle like a Bert Stare rumor" reference lol

[Dawgology]

“Fizzle like a Bert Stare rumor” was great!

I also eagerly anticipate the click bait article somehow tying Covid and hurricanes together.

[DownwardDawg]

“Fizzle like a Bert Stare rumor” was great!

I also eagerly anticipate the click bait article somehow tying Covid and hurricanes together.

And Trump! You gotta know it’s his fault too!!!

[DownwardDawg]

Love me a weather thread and I love watching tropical systems. Working in the Gulf, growing up on the coast, and then having my father live down there until he passed, I’ve always been drawn to these systems.
Heck, I walked around the driveway yesterday evening enjoying the wind, lightning, and the under as well as the dancing clouds that were associated with the impending thunderstorm!!!

[ScoobaDawg]

I do love extreme weather but do not want to see any damage. Outside chance TD 8 which is soon to be come Tropical Storm Hanna becomes a hurricane before landfall. but I think she's moving too fast.

[starkvegasdawg]

That wave I mentioned in my OP that was about to move off of Africa now has done so and already garnered the attention of the NHC. It's been given a 20% chance of development in five days.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hannah now in the Gulf.

[notsofarawaydawg]

I'm headed to the Ft. Myers area next Thursday the 30th to visit my brother for 5 days. Fingers crossed.

[basedog]

I've been put on alert, latest model I see is south of CC with the target King Ranch for Hannah (which would be best case). Not sure how we will handle the logistics of a Hurricane with crews from the power companies. Been doing logistics restoration for power companies 21 years, this is going to be a struggle I'm guessing with getting power on and dealing with staging sites for crews.

[ScoobaDawg]

I've been put on alert, latest model I see is south of CC with the target King Ranch for Hannah (which would be best case). Not sure how we will handle the logistics of a Hurricane with crews from the power companies. Been doing logistics restoration for power companies 21 years, this is going to be a struggle I'm guessing with getting power on and dealing with staging sites for crews.

Not sure if you had to head down or not.. Hanna ramped up to 90mph officially and came in about the area you were talking about. The eye is completely on land and finally been downgraded to a Tropical Storm with 60kt wind still..but isn't moving fast, so the eyewall will hammer Brownsville over night.. with strong feeder bands still offshore.

Gonza went Gonza and is officially dead per the NHC.

the wave SVD mentioned is now known as 92L and has a 90% chance of developing into a depression over the next 5 days.. 60% chance of it happening in the next 48 hours.
Current models are suggestion it won't enter the GOM and instead take a path towards the Florida to north carolina... but far too soon to know. It's a week away.

[starkvegasdawg]

Not sure if you had to head down or not.. Hanna ramped up to 90mph officially and came in about the area you were talking about. The eye is completely on land and finally been downgraded to a Tropical Storm with 60kt wind still..but isn't moving fast, so the eyewall will hammer Brownsville over night.. with strong feeder bands still offshore.

Gonza went Gonza and is officially dead per the NHC.

the wave SVD mentioned is now known as 92L and has a 90% chance of developing into a depression over the next 5 days.. 60% chance of it happening in the next 48 hours.
Current models are suggestion it won't enter the GOM and instead take a path towards the Florida to north carolina... but far too soon to know. It's a week away.

And to add to that another wave is now poised to come off the coast of Africa that is also looking impressive. However, that is fairly common this time of year, and a good portion of them fall apart instead of developing. Still has been a very active start to the season.

[DownwardDawg]

And to add to that another wave is now poised to come off the coast of Africa that is also looking impressive. However, that is fairly common this time of year, and a good portion of them fall apart instead of developing. Still has been a very active start to the season.

I worked on the coast of Africa right there in that area in the late 90’s. It was strange to see just how bad those storms would be and then hear about a tropical storm a week or so later headed towards home.

[basedog]

I’m in Edinburg right now, this Rio Granda Valley is really bad with flood water. Actually McAllen area has the most outages but overall it’s the dang water. Crews have done a good job but they can’t work in flood water.
Waiting to c where we are gonna stage crews. Hopefully by Tomrrow as many crews sitting around waiting.

[starkvegasdawg]

That wave is expected to develop into a depression or storm by early this week. All indications are now that it will be an east coast issue and not threaten the Gulf. Only a small number of the models bring it into the GOM.

[ScoobaDawg]

92L is now Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 and will likely become Tropical Storm Isaias this afternoon before it runs into the DR. Depending on how quickly it turns north vs continuing west will be what is to be watched as the path has shifted from the atlantic more towards a direct hit on fl or maybe Alabmama as a tropical storm over the next 3-4 days.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/150024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[FISHDAWG]

thanks ... Can't believe we have made it to the I-names already

[RocketDawg]

The "potential tropical cyclone" has winds of 45 mph, which is greater than the minimum to be called a tropical storm and be given a name.

Why is it not named? Is it because it doesn't have a defined low pressure center? There are even tropical storm warnings posted.

[starkvegasdawg]

The "potential tropical cyclone" has winds of 45 mph, which is greater than the minimum to be called a tropical storm and be given a name.

Why is it not named? Is it because it doesn't have a defined low pressure center? There are even tropical storm warnings posted.

You nailed it. It doesn't yet have the characteristics of a tropical system...primarily a warm core closed low. There's storms all in the ocean that have winds that meet or exceed tropical storm force, but it's got to have the other features. Once it gets those features then wind strength is used to determine if it's a depression, storm, and so on.

[RocketDawg]

Thanks. I just don't recall ever seeing this situation in the Caribbean (or near there).

[ScoobaDawg]

It got it's name overnight.. now tropical storm Isaias
50mph winds but very disorganized.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/150024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Barely off the coast of Africa, tropical depression 10 expected to become Josephine overnight. Not expected to threaten the US. Still over a month from the peak of the season and already on the cusp of the J storm.