ESPN FPI Says We Go 4-8 or 5-7

[confucius say]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/season/2020

It hates us. Heard brad Edwards discussing. Said 15% chance to beat Aggie at home
20% to beat KY on road
25% to beat OM on road
slight underdog vs Mizzou and NC State
53% chance to beat Ark at home

For comparison, Bartoo's college football matrix says 6.5 wins.

[ShotgunDawg]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/season/2020

It hates us. Heard brad Edwards discussing. Said 15% chance to beat Aggie at home
20% to beat KY on road
25% to beat OM on road
slight underdog vs Mizzou and NC State
53% chance to beat Ark at home

For comparison, Bartoo's college football matrix says 6.5 wins.

I'm not saying we're going to win 8 or 9 games, but the FPI is off here.

Problem is, we don't know the formula enough to know where the issue is.

The 53% chance of beating Arkansas can't be correct. That doesn't make any sense at all from any perspective.

[Commercecomet24]

Did OM and arky suddenly get much better? Wow. I'm tempering my expectations, new coach, new scheme, missed spring practice, etc. but I believe we win 6-7 for sure. Heck Leach is a much better coach than joe and joe won 6 last year.

[ShotgunDawg]

Did OM and arky suddenly get much better? Wow. I'm tempering my expectations, new coach, new scheme, missed spring practice, etc. but I believe we win 6-7 for sure. Heck Leach is a much better coach than joe and joe won 6 last year.

They did not.

The formula is off somehow. Doesn't pass in the smell test.

[Homedawg]

While I don't agree w it, and think it's low, I can understand it. Our defense wasnt good and lost several key players. Our offense, should be ok to good but it's unknown in CML first year. He's had struggles in his first years and we have little WR talent. With all that said, we are going to have to score to win SEC games. Can we score enough. I'd take 7 wins and go to the house.

[FISHDAWG]

wonder what Vegas says ... I'll take them over some ESPN analyst ... most usually predict the under on us but this just seems way off with very little thought or research put into it

[ShotgunDawg]

While I don't agree w it, and think it's low, I can understand it. Our defense wasnt good and lost several key players. Our offense, should be ok to good but it's unknown in CML first year. He's had struggles in his first years and we have little WR talent. With all that said, we are going to have to score to win SEC games. Can we score enough. I'd take 7 wins and go to the house.

Problem is that Arkansas & Ole Miss both have new coaches as well. The formula doesn't make any sense. I don't understand it all, but I know it's in MSU fans blood to "understand" everything ...

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if they confused Ole Miss & MSU

[ShotgunDawg]

wonder what Vegas says ... I'll take them over some ESPN analyst ... most usually predict the under on us but this just seems way off with very little thought or research put into it

Vegas has us at 6.5, which is significantly more reasonable. Again, the FPI is off somehow, but without the formula, it's impossible to know what the issue is
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/college-football/win-totals-best-odds/

[Ari Gold]

Same shit different year

[nsvltndog]

I find this very interesting. I seem to recall this metric rating us way higher than we finished in the Moorhead era, almost like it thought Mullen was still our coach.

Now it seems like FPI has finally figured out how to properly gauge MSU under JoMo, but he's not here anymore. The Arkansas 53% chance of winning at home is baffling but outside that this aligns well w/ what I would have predicted if we were entering year 3 of JoMo.

[ShotgunDawg]

I find this very interesting. I seem to recall this metric rating us way higher than we finished in the Moorhead era, almost like it thought Mullen was still our coach.

Now it seems like FPI has finally figured out how to properly gauge MSU under JoMo, but he's not here anymore. The Arkansas 53% chance of winning at home is baffling but outside that this aligns well w/ what I would have predicted if we were entering year 3 of JoMo.

The 25% chance of winning at OM is ridiculous, the 20% chance at Kentucky is retarded, & the slight underdog at home vs Mizzou & NC State is simply inaccurate.

Sorry, this formula is wrong just like the Rona models. Models are good when they somewhat reflect reality but with a slight emphasis. When they're clearly off, they're worthless

[BrunswickDawg]

I'm not saying we're going to win 8 or 9 games, but the FPI is off here.

Problem is, we don't know the formula enough to know where the issue is.

The 53% chance of beating Arkansas can't be correct. That doesn't make any sense at all from any perspective.

The early FPI is heavily weighted to returning production. We lost our top producing passer, our #2 & #3 rushers; our #2, 3, & 4 WR; Tacklers #2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 plus Willie Gay; and the players who produced 7 of our 11 INTS.
Off a 6-7 team.

[ShotgunDawg]

The early FPI is heavily weighted to returning production. We lost our top producing passer, our #2 & #3 rushers; our #2, 3, & 4 WR; Tacklers #2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 plus Willie Gay; and the players who produced 7 of our 11 INTS.
Off a 6-7 team.

Perhaps we're a conundrum that the computer struggles to calculate this year due to Leach & Costello.

Either way, this is incorrect & worthless

[HoopsDawg]

Just look at our defensive depth chart. Probably the weakest our 2nd unit has been in 10+ years.

[BrunswickDawg]

Perhaps we're a conundrum that the computer struggles to calculate this year due to Leach & Costello.

Either way, this is incorrect & worthless

We are not a conundrum - we lost a ton of production off of an under-performing team, and have a new coaching staff. That factors heavily into pre-season FPI:


In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.

Preseason FPI debuted in 2014, and you can read more about how it performed in these recaps of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. In short, if preseason FPI, which was run retroactively to 2005, had been used with no update to predict every game over the last 10 seasons, the FPI favorite would have won 72 percent of FBS-versus-FBS games (Vegas closing line was 75 percent accurate).

[ShotgunDawg]

We are not a conundrum - we lost a ton of production off of an under-performing team, and have a new coaching staff. That factors heavily into pre-season FPI:

Yes, but Ole Miss & Arkansas are in the same situation. That's the issue here

[Commercecomet24]

Perhaps we're a conundrum that the computer struggles to calculate this year due to Leach & Costello.

Either way, this is incorrect & worthless

I hate that Leach hasn't found a receiver named Abbot. Abbot and Costello would be glorious!

[Bubb Rubb]

Remember when FPI had us winning 10 a couple of years ago? FPI is worthless.

There will be growing pains because we turned over the coaching staff and are running completely new systems on both sides of the ball. But we will beat NC State, Mizzou, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Kentucky because we are just better than they are.

[Cooterpoot]

Anyone that looks at our OOC schedule and thinks we won't win 6 games is a fool.
Only concern is the virus lay-off.

[BrunswickDawg]

Yes, but Ole Miss & Arkansas are in the same situation. That's the issue here

They are for coaching tenure, but not necessarily in returning production -which is what the pre-season FPI is weighted toward.
Ole Miss returns all of its passing production, return 4 of the 5 top rushers, 4 of their 5 top WR, 4 of their 5 top tacklers, and the bulk of their INTS.

You can argue that those players aren't as talented as what we have returning. You can argue that they are potentially not as productive as what we have.
But, they return a very high percentage of their production and that is a huge factor in the pre-season FPI.

[ShotgunDawg]

Remember when FPI had us winning 10 a couple of years ago? FPI is worthless.

There will be growing pains because we turned over the coaching staff and are running completely new systems on both sides of the ball. But we will beat NC State, Mizzou, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Kentucky because we are just better than they are.

That Kentucky game does worry me, but we've got the right coach to do it & our chances of winning that game are damn sure greater than 20%. Probably 40-45%

[ShotgunDawg]

They are for coaching tenure, but not necessarily in returning production -which is what the pre-season FPI is weighted toward.
Ole Miss returns all of its passing production, return 4 of the 5 top rushers, 4 of their 5 top WR, 4 of their 5 top tacklers, and the bulk of their INTS.

You can argue that those players aren't as talented as what we have returning. You can argue that they are potentially not as productive as what we have.
But, they return a very high percentage of their production and that is a huge factor in the pre-season FPI.

So we get no credit for Costello & Leach? If FPI isn't considering those two factors then it's simply inaccurate & worthless

[TrapGame]

They way college football has been effected by COVID 19 all bets are off on any of this. This is going to be one of those weird and wonderful years in college football. The quarantines and "new normal" will produce some strange outcomes this Fall.

[msugolf]

The early FPI is heavily weighted to returning production. We lost our top producing passer, our #2 & #3 rushers; our #2, 3, & 4 WR; Tacklers #2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 plus Willie Gay; and the players who produced 7 of our 11 INTS.
Off a 6-7 team.

According to Edwards in his OOB interview he said they DID actually tweak the formula to not put as much emphasis on returning production and instead replaced it with returning talent. I guess they go by their own recruiting rankings to determine that, which is another topic. Also he said the formula isn't high on Costello because it only factors in the previous year production. And another thing is that it doesn't factor in overall coaching effect like Bartoo's does.

He ended up contradicting himself a bunch with the FPI results because even according to their recruiting rankings we've outrecruited Arky, Mizz, Kentucky, NCState the last 5 years. And said it DOES factor in if you have a first year coach (typically a down year) and said that it hurts State but didn't mention that Ark, Mizz, OM all have first year coaches too.

Basically its just a really bad formula that I have a feeling will get blown apart this year.

[ShotgunDawg]

They way college football has been effected by COVID 19 all bets are off on any of this. This is going to be one of those weird and wonderful years in college football. The quarantines and "new normal" will produce some strange outcomes this Fall.

I agree with this very much. I think it's going to be a really wild year

[BrunswickDawg]

So we get no credit for Costello & Leach? If FPI isn't considering those two factors then it's simply inaccurate & worthless

It is completely worthless this time of year. But, I don't make the FPI rules, ESPN does.

[ShotgunDawg]

Also he said the formula isn't high on Costello because it only factors in the previous year production. And another thing is that it doesn't factor in overall coaching effect like Bartoo's does.

Then it's worthless.

Computers are only as good as the information that is put into them &, if they're incapable of putting in quality information, then the FPI is worthless as a source

[BiscuitEater]

The early FPI is heavily weighted to returning production. We lost our top producing passer, our #2 & #3 rushers; our #2, 3, & 4 WR; Tacklers #2, 3, 4, 7 & 9 plus Willie Gay; and the players who produced 7 of our 11 INTS.
Off a 6-7 team.

Actually, we lost #3 and #4 rushers Gibson and QB Stevens. #1, #2, & #5 return + a 4* with great potential. Rushing has MUCH greater potential than in '19.

Shrader was only 4.0 less in efficiency & <3% less than Stevens .. with Will Rogers and Costello easily > loss of Stevens.

Our 'leading' WR only caught 30, our #2 caught 30. Just see way more potential with Leech O than we got in '19.

Just don't see that much of a drop off in D. Willie Gay will be missed but only played like 2.3 full games in '19.

[Commercecomet24]

On the plus side at least when we lose with Leach the press conferences won't be boring lol.

[confucius say]

So we get no credit for Costello & Leach? If FPI isn't considering those two factors then it's simply inaccurate & worthless

Correct. You actually get dinged. Edwards said there is no scenario where you get a bump from a coaching change, you always get dinged regardless of who is replacing whom. You also get dinged if your qb is not a returning starter. That is why the fpi was so off on oh state last year-they got dinged for not have a returning qb even though fields was really good.

[WPS]

They are for coaching tenure, but not necessarily in returning production -which is what the pre-season FPI is weighted toward.
Ole Miss returns all of its passing production, return 4 of the 5 top rushers, 4 of their 5 top WR, 4 of their 5 top tacklers, and the bulk of their INTS.

You can argue that those players aren't as talented as what we have returning. You can argue that they are potentially not as productive as what we have.
But, they return a very high percentage of their production and that is a huge factor in the pre-season FPI.

Yeah I would imagine the formula helps Arkansas too since 4/5 OL are back, every WR is back, and Rakeem Boyd is back and should be the SEC's 3rd best RB.

It's also probably taking into account Feleipe Franks' good numbers through 3 games last year before he got hurt, which skews things quite a bit. Costello only played in 5 games so he had a shortened season as well but his completion % and QBR are worse since he played tougher competition overall (Franks went 25/27 against UT-Martin which skyrocketed his completion percentage).

Not real sure how Arkansas didn't get a big hit for returning production on defense since we lost possibly our best player from each level of the D, but I guess when you're as bad as we were on defense then losses don't matter as much lol

[BrunswickDawg]

Actually, we lost #3 and #4 rushers Gibson and QB Stevens. #1, #2, & #5 return + a 4* with great potential. Rushing has MUCH greater potential than in '19.

Shrader was only 4.0 less in efficiency & <3% less than Stevens .. with Will Rogers and Costello easily > loss of Stevens.

Our 'leading' WR only caught 30, our #2 caught 30. Just see way more potential with Leech O than we got in '19.

Just don't see that much of a drop off in D. Willie Gay will be missed but only played like 2.3 full games in '19.

Yeah - I was off on a couple, but it's still indicative of the amount of production we are losing.

And I agree with your points - but it is also not what they are using to formulate FPI. I'm not making an argument that we are going to be 5-7 like the FPI claims, only that the way FPI looks at us on paper is essentially only calculating one factor right now - returning production.

[Todd4State]

We have too many things that skew us.

Tutor Gate limited the production of guys like Marcus Murphy.

Extremely poor S&C making our players look not as talented.

Completely new systems on both sides of the ball.

Moorhead's personnel usage limited production from the total roster making guys like Javonta Payton look worse than they actually probably are.

[ShotgunDawg]

We have too many things that skew us.

Tutor Gate limited the production of guys like Marcus Murphy.

Extremely poor S&C making our players look not as talented.

Completely new systems on both sides of the ball.

Moorhead's personnel usage limited production from the total roster making guys like Javonta Payton look worse than they actually probably are.

Dang. I forgot about Tutor gate effecting this but it absolutely does.

I guess I understand how FPI got us to 4-5 wins, but again, it's worthless because reality shows that their are significant reasons to bet the over.

[FISHDAWG]

Dang. I forgot about Tutor gate effecting this but it absolutely does.

I guess I understand how FPI got us to 4-5 wins, but again, it's worthless because reality shows that their are significant reasons to bet the over.

If Bama had all new starters they wouldn't predict them this low ... there has to be a human element in all of this somewhere - the thing about statistics is there is always an exception somewhere and these guys are just relying on math because there's no way they could fully understand over 120 teams ...... like you said - they have ignored the reality factor here

[dawgday166]

According to Edwards in his OOB interview he said they DID actually tweak the formula to not put as much emphasis on returning production and instead replaced it with returning talent. I guess they go by their own recruiting rankings to determine that, which is another topic. Also he said the formula isn't high on Costello because it only factors in the previous year production. And another thing is that it doesn't factor in overall coaching effect like Bartoo's does.

He ended up contradicting himself a bunch with the FPI results because even according to their recruiting rankings we've outrecruited Arky, Mizz, Kentucky, NCState the last 5 years. And said it DOES factor in if you have a first year coach (typically a down year) and said that it hurts State but didn't mention that Ark, Mizz, OM all have first year coaches too.

Basically its just a really bad formula that I have a feeling will get blown apart this year.

Yea it is. Will say tho that with Covid and all the changes ... I have no idea what we'll put on the field this year. But I also think OM is in same boat and not sure how they're ahead of us. But ... they were always ahead of us in old FPI too.

ETA: And according to ESPN recruiting rankings, it seems like there are several teams that should have more "returning talent".

[Liverpooldawg]

Assuming we actually play.....that's about right.

[R2Dawg]

That Kentucky game does worry me, but we've got the right coach to do it & our chances of winning that game are damn sure greater than 20%. Probably 40-45%

UK is tough about half the time but historically we own UK. No way that is 20% but more like 50% at worst.

Ark being that low, joke. We play them at home and own Ark too not to mention that have not been good for a decade.

OM that low off too. About like UK, I'd say 50%. On road, rivalry, they are probably due. How many times in recent history has anyone won egg bowl three years in a row? Since 1980?

[Commercecomet24]

UK is tough about half the time but historically we own UK. No way that is 20% but more like 50% at worst.

Ark being that low, joke. We play them at home and own Ark too not to mention that have not been good for a decade.

OM that low off too. About like UK, I'd say 50%. On road, rivalry, they are probably due. How many times in recent history has anyone won egg bowl three years in a row? Since 1980?

We won the Egg Bowl 2009,2010 and 2011, but it hasn't happened very often, true.

[Pipedream]

Dang. I forgot about Tutor gate effecting this but it absolutely does.

I guess I understand how FPI got us to 4-5 wins, but again, it's worthless because reality shows that their are significant reasons to bet the over.

If the over was 4.5, it would be getting hammered, but it's 6.5 and I wouldn't touch it. I have no clue what we will look like.

[Jack Lambert]

They are just offended we fired a coach after making it to a bowl game. They are just trying to put us back in our place.

[dawgday166]

They use dano to develop their probability and statistical algorithms and one of their (ESPN's) OM grads that work there to input the Ground Rules & Assumptions **** That's why the results turn out like they do ****

[ShotgunDawg]

I have no clue what we will look like.

Well... nobody does. That's why you have to prognosticate & attempt to put the pieces of the puzzle together.

Due to Leach & the lack of Spring practice, it wouldn't shock me if we did something like lose at NC State & then beat LSU or something like that

[parabrave]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/season/2020

It hates us. Heard brad Edwards discussing. Said 15% chance to beat Aggie at home
20% to beat KY on road
25% to beat OM on road
slight underdog vs Mizzou and NC State
53% chance to beat Ark at home

For comparison, Bartoo's college football matrix says 6.5 wins.

They do know that JOMO isn't here anymore? I would say that the lack of a spring peactice hurts us but other teams got new coaches also and are in the same boat.

[Todd4State]

The problem with these metrics is that they HAVE to use data from previous seasons. I don't care how much they tweak them- that's the only data that they have to use.

It basically assumes that a team's returning players are always going to maybe marginally improve.

It's assuming that we're starting Shrader or maybe an injured Costello. It's not taking into account any of our JUCO's- and yes I think Malik Heath and Jordan Davis are going to be impact guys coming in. It's assuming that Marcus Murphy is only playing in 4-5 games. I've already touched on the other issues in a previous post.

In other words I suspect that odds are we are going to outperform the metrics. We're very likely an outlier.

[TUSK]

Sounds like some of you cats are gonna be wealthy....

[BB30]

Us being lower than arky and OM is a big head scratcher. That being said, I could see a scenario where we only win 5 games. We are lacking in depth and or have a lot of youth in a bunch of spots. A couple of injuries to key players and it could turn rough quick.

Costello does us zero good if our WR unit doesn't improve significantly. Our secondary was young last year so hopefully they are improved but we looked lost back there at times.

I don't think anyone has enough data/knowledge yet on this team to make a decent prognostication as to what our Ws and Ls will look like. I also don't think anyone could make an educated guess as to how good Arky and OM will be either so it does seem as though we are getting screwed a little.

I really don't know what to make of this team at the moment though and I don't think anyone will until we see them on the field assuming that we get to.

[Coach34]

We're not going to be very good this Fall- but should get to 6 wins. We will be one of the worst D's in the SEC and our depth is just not there. Playing more plays on D wont help either thanks to the Pirate's O.

No Spring practice for the O to gel, questionable at WR, Throwing more with the team that was 12th in the SEC in sacks allowed.

Will be happy with 6 wins

[ShotgunDawg]

We're not going to be very good this Fall- but should get to 6 wins. We will be one of the worst D's in the SEC and our depth is just not there. Playing more plays on D wont help either thanks to the Pirate's O.

No Spring practice for the O to gel, questionable at WR, Throwing more with the team that was 12th in the SEC in sacks allowed.

Will be happy with 6 wins

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

[Ari Gold]

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

3 and outs are much worse that any hurry up fast tempo offense there is..
and strong stat with the 24/29...

[Ari Gold]

Willie only played 3 1/2 games
Autry 4
Lovette ( based on info from a few wasn’t buying in )
Rivers
Cole
Dantlzler
Leo
Smitherman ( played half the season )

Yeah that’s losing guys but who jumps out besides Dantzler and Gay
I thought Cole was very underrated tho and I bet he makes An NFL roster
Rivers not as good as me and others thought he would be

We also get Murphy back for full season
And the juco guys will make an impact from day one. A big impact..
Lot of young guys will have to step up But on paper we have some cats...

We won’t be the defense of 2018 but we damn sure won’t be the defense of 2016 and that team won 5 games

No reason with the QB / RB /and the OL will still be pretty dame good. Also I’m not worried about the WR can’t be any worse than in any years of the past and this offense will make them better

I don’t think we have never lost to both Aub and AM at home in the same year..
So I will go with trends and we will for sure be better coached, better on offense , better conditioning , and better focused..

Make it 11 straight bowl seasons and 7 or 8 wins and I bet Vegas doesn’t have us lower than 5.5 or 6 wins

[Jack Lambert]

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

The only thing for sure is Leach can get the most out of his offensive guys. It's going to be a 6 to 7 win season. Maybe Leach will get that big upset and make the season feel like a 10 win season. I do think the defense will be better than we think. I like or DC. He too will get the most out of his guys. I'm just excited to see his defense in action as I am Leaches offense.

I remember DM first season we only won five games but it felt like a winning season. I guess it was the change in mood after five years of Croom. To a certain extent this season will be the same with a change of mood.

[Bubb Rubb]

We're not going to be very good this Fall- but should get to 6 wins. We will be one of the worst D's in the SEC and our depth is just not there. Playing more plays on D wont help either thanks to the Pirate's O.

No Spring practice for the O to gel, questionable at WR, Throwing more with the team that was 12th in the SEC in sacks allowed.

Will be happy with 6 wins

Leach likes to brag about how easy it is to pick up his offense. We'll put that to the test. But with Kostello at QB and Hill catching the ball out of the backfield, along with Payton, Mitchell, and our offensive line, we are going to be fine offensively. We should have a defense that ends up somewhere in the middle of the SEC pack.

This is a 7/8 win team with our schedule, provided we don't have key injuries.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.


3 and outs are much worse that any hurry up fast tempo offense there is..
and strong stat with the 24/29...

We talked about this in January after Leach was hired. Y'all are right. After Leach's first two years at WSU, they were usually either in the middle or in the upper third of the nation in teams with the least opponents' plays per game. And regardless of their national ranks, the difference between the number of plays WSU's D faced and the number that State's D faced wasn't often that large.

Opponents' plays per game:

2012: WSU - 76.5 / State - 73
2013: WSU - 80.2 / State - 66.9
2014: WSU - 72.8 / State - 77.5
2015: WSU - 75.6 / State - 76.2
2016: WSU - 68.7 / State - 72.8
2017: WSU - 67.3 / State - 62.5
2018: WSU - 66.8 / State - 65.6
2019: WSU - 69.8 / State - 64.4

That said, I agree with C34 that the transition could be rough on D. Putting aside the new scheme, we're once again crazy inexperienced. Out of 130 FBS teams, we're 113th in returning defensive production. That's lowest in the SEC. (Before the suspensions last year, we were 90th in that stat, if you'd like a reference point.) Teams like LSU and Clemson are often low in that category, too, because of all their early draftees, but they've got blue-chip talent in every class to fill in the gaps. We've got some talent there like we usually do, but it's hard to overcome a complete lack of experience.

The cancellation of spring practice probably isn't doing us any favors, either, especially with a new transfer QB and entirely new systems on both sides of the ball.

[Ari Gold]

We talked about this in January after Leach was hired. Y'all are right. After Leach's first two years at WSU, they were usually either in the middle or in the upper third of the nation in teams with the least opponents' plays per game. And regardless of their national ranks, the difference between the number of plays WSU's D faced and the number that State's D faced wasn't often that large.

Opponents' plays per game:

2012: WSU - 76.5 / State - 73
2013: WSU - 80.2 / State - 66.9
2014: WSU - 72.8 / State - 77.5
2015: WSU - 75.6 / State - 76.2
2016: WSU - 68.7 / State - 72.8
2017: WSU - 67.3 / State - 62.5
2018: WSU - 66.8 / State - 65.6
2019: WSU - 69.8 / State - 64.4

That said, I agree with C34 that the transition could be rough on D. Putting aside the new scheme, we're once again crazy inexperienced. Out of 130 FBS teams, we're 113th in returning defensive production. That's lowest in the SEC. (Before the suspensions last year, we were 90th in that stat, if you'd like a reference point.) Teams like LSU and Clemson are often low in that category, too, because of all their early draftees, but they've got blue-chip talent in every class to fill in the gaps. We've got some talent there like we usually do, but it's hard to overcome a complete lack of experience.

The cancellation of spring practice probably isn't doing us any favors, either, especially with a new transfer QB and entirely new systems on both sides of the ball.

New coaches and systems at
Mizzu / arky / and OM
New QBs at
UK/ Mizzu / Arky and prob OM

So the circumstances this spring will effect them just as much as us
I like our chances in all of those games
And if you beat NC state

There’s 8 wins..

That’s not going out on a limb at all .. will we win all of those ?? . maybe not .. we will win more of those than we lose? I would bet yes

It’s ok to be glass half full fans and to be very excited ... it’s not wearing maroon glasses , or ridiculous expectations To think we can’t win 7 or 8 games

[Bothrops]

I feel like strong run teams will have no problem scoring against us. Our secondary will be key on whether or not we are a total disaster on defense early on.

[ShotgunDawg]

I feel like strong run teams will have no problem scoring against us. Our secondary will be key on whether or not we are a total disaster on defense early on.

That's where Arnett's aggressive defense will have to make some big tackle for losses to take those ground & pound teams out of their game.

[Prediction? Pain.]

New coaches and systems at
Mizzu / arky / and OM
New QBs at
UK/ Mizzu / Arky and prob OM

So the circumstances this spring will effect them just as much as us
I like our chances in all of those games
And if you beat NC state

There’s 8 wins..

That’s not going out on a limb at all .. will we win all of those ?? . maybe not .. we will win more of those than we lose? I would bet yes

It’s ok to be glass half full fans and to be very excited ... it’s not wearing maroon glasses , or ridiculous expectations To think we can’t win 7 or 8 games

Those are great points and I think it's totally reasonable to think we've got great chances to win all those games. And I think that could happen even with a D that struggles because of inexperience and an offense that takes a bit to get rolling after a total overhaul schematically (and culturally (both likely for the better, of course)). Our D was atrocious many times last year and we still weren't too many plays away from finishing the regular season 7-5.

Also, I'm beyond excited about next season. Not sure how you couldn't be leading up to Year 1 under Leach. I'm just a cautious stick in the mud.

[Extendedcab]

Problem is that Arkansas & Ole Miss both have new coaches as well. The formula doesn't make any sense. I don't understand it all, but I know it's in MSU fans blood to "understand" everything ...

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if they confused Ole Miss & MSU


They have before - 1996 mens basketball run to the final 4 - cap given to players said Mississippi instead of MSU. Richard Williams was livid!

[Coach34]

Did you know that in 2018, Mississippi State finished 24th overall in defensive plays & Washington State finished 29th?

Washington State played a whopping 9 more plays on defense in 2018 than MSU. I bet that really wore their ass out...*

I could argue that in general Moorhead's 3 & outs were far worse on our defense than Leach having an occasional 3 & out that doesn't take any time off the clock.

Sighhhhh...I'll explain it one more time for everyone. Hopefully it will start sinking in

A) Under JoVester and Mullen- we were a predomiant run heavy team. Run-heavy keeps the clocks moving. Under JoVester- we averaged 40 runs per game and 24 passes per game. We are about to flip that ratio. We are not good at WR- there will be alot more incompletions in 2020- stopping the clock.

B) Defense is simply played differently in the SEC than in the Pac-12. JoVester found out about that. Teams are going to rush 4 and 5- lock up man underneath and let the safety/safeties run to the ball. They dont play that way near as much in the Pac-12.

C) We're not going to be very good on D- especially at LB and in the Secondary. DL should be improved but will still lack a pass rush. That will cause us to play more plays defensively also unless we give up too many big plays to shorten drives against us. This lack of depth will hurt alot in the hot climate that is September and October in Miss

[HoopsDawg]

Sighhhhh...I'll explain it one more time for everyone. Hopefully it will start sinking in

A) Under JoVester and Mullen- we were a predomiant run heavy team. Run-heavy keeps the clocks moving. Under JoVester- we averaged 40 runs per game and 24 passes per game. We are about to flip that ratio. We are not good at WR- there will be alot more incompletions in 2020- stopping the clock.

B) Defense is simply played differently in the SEC than in the Pac-12. JoVester found out about that. Teams are going to rush 4 and 5- lock up man underneath and let the safety/safeties run to the ball. They dont play that way near as much in the Pac-12.

C) We're not going to be very good on D- especially at LB and in the Secondary. DL should be improved but will still lack a pass rush. That will cause us to play more plays defensively also unless we give up too many big plays to shorten drives against us. This lack of depth will hurt alot in the hot climate that is September and October in Miss

Our back 7 looks really rough on paper. Why are people ignoring this?

[Coach34]

Our back 7 looks really rough on paper. Why are people ignoring this?

No idea. Looks to be the worst back 7 we have had in awhile to me.

Murphy could be pretty good and Thompson plays the run pretty well but struggles in coverage. Neither group can be viewed as a "strength" tho.

[MaroonFlounder]

B) Defense is simply played differently in the SEC than in the Pac-12. JoVester found out about that. Teams are going to rush 4 and 5- lock up man underneath and let the safety/safeties run to the ball. They dont play that way near as much in the Pac-12

Jovester has never coached in the PAC-12...until now, if we ever get back to playing football.

[Coach34]

Jovester has never coached in the PAC-12...until now, if we ever get back to playing football.

Yep. And he will be slightly more successful than in the SEC- but nobody will confuse him with “genius” anymore

[confucius say]

Costello is the ultimate wild card that is the unknown. How good will he be? On paper, he's the best incoming qb in our history and it's not even remotely close.

He has 7 300-yard passing games against against Power 5 schools. 7! That's double anybody else in the SEC. And that includes against top 20 defenses Oregon, Utah, and Washington. And he's pairing with the foremost passing coach in college football the last two decades.

When you have a guy who some project as a late first rounder/second rounder at the most important position in football (Walter Camp projection), you just never know.

[KOdawg1]

Our JUCO guys will make or break our defense imo. Guys like Jordan Davis, Tre Lawson, Fred Peters, and Kyle Cass need to come in and contribute immediately. If not, it could get rough on that side of the ball.

[Todd4State]

Our JUCO guys will make or break our defense imo. Guys like Jordan Davis, Tre Lawson, Fred Peters, and Kyle Cass need to come in and contribute immediately. If not, it could get rough on that side of the ball.

Rinse, repeat every year.

Let's hope this group isn't Arizona Western JC 2.0. I think Davis, Heath, and Tyrus Wheat will be pretty good.

[KOdawg1]

Rinse, repeat every year.

Let's hope this group isn't Arizona Western JC 2.0. I think Davis, Heath, and Tyrus Wheat will be pretty good.

Forgot about Tyrus Wheat. Yeah, he's a thumper

[msstate7]

Our back 7 looks really rough on paper. Why are people ignoring this?

This board almost always overrates us

[R2Dawg]

Forgot about Tyrus Wheat. Yeah, he's a thumper

Haven't seen Wheat but hear good things. Fred Peters is a player. We'll have some new faces explode on the scene this year just like every year we lose players to NFL.

[Coach34]

Our JUCO guys will make or break our defense imo. Guys like Jordan Davis, Tre Lawson, Fred Peters, and Kyle Cass need to come in and contribute immediately. If not, it could get rough on that side of the ball.

Most jucos take at least a good half season to adapt and these guys didnt even get Spring Practice.

But there are alot of wild cards out there right now with what has taken place. Will certainly be interesting this Fall

[ShotgunDawg]

Most jucos take at least a good half season to adapt and these guys didnt even get Spring Practice.

But there are alot of wild cards out there right now with what has taken place. Will certainly be interesting this Fall

I think you make a good point here.

Yes, we have issues, but so does everyone else.

There is a tendency to only see your own problems & assume everyone else is fine, but that's not true. Everyone is going to feel the pain of not having Spring.

LSU could feel it more than anyone honestly

[PGHBulldogBG]

Looks like a 6-6 year to me. New Mexico,Arkansas,Tulane,Missouri,Alabama A&M and one of TAMU/Ole Miss/Nc State

[Ari Gold]

Looks like a 6-6 year to me. New Mexico,Arkansas,Tulane,Missouri,Alabama A&M and one of TAMU/Ole Miss/Nc State

Kentucky ?

[dawgday166]

I think you make a good point here.

Yes, we have issues, but so does everyone else.

There is a tendency to only see your own problems & assume everyone else is fine, but that's not true. Everyone is going to feel the pain of not having Spring.

LSU could feel it more than anyone honestly

Or ... not see your own problems and assume everyone else not named Bama sucks. Most years this board thinks we will waltz thru AM/AU and our always horrible other SEC East opponent with LSU as a tossup and the icing.

ETA: And for some reason ... it never quite works out that way.

[confucius say]

Or ... not see your own problems and assume everyone else not named Bama sucks. Most years this board thinks we will waltz thru AM/AU and our always horrible other SEC East opponent with LSU as a tossup and the icing.

ETA: And for some reason ... it never quite works out that way.

I've literally never seen one poster on here say we will waltz through auburn and Aggie. I do think many believe we stand a chance in those two games, and the recent facts, which follow below, support as much. And outside of LSU's 2019 season, LSU has been a tossup. The facts are:

We've beaten Aggie 3 of 4 and 4 of 6.
We've split the last 6 vs auburn.
Minus 2019, LSU has been a toss up the last 6 years (W in 2014, L by 2 in 2015, L by 3 in 2016, W huge in 2017, L by 12 in 2018).

For the record, I think we go 7-5. But anything from 6-6 to 8-4 would not surprise me.

[dawgday166]

I've literally never seen one poster on here say we will waltz through auburn and Aggie. I do think many believe we stand a chance in those two games, and the recent facts, which follow below, support as much. And outside of LSU's 2019 season, LSU has been a tossup. The facts are:

We've beaten Aggie 3 of 4 and 4 of 6.
We've split the last 6 vs auburn.
Minus 2019, LSU has been a toss up the last 6 years (W in 2014, L by 2 in 2015, L by 3 in 2016, W huge in 2017, L by 12 in 2018).

For the record, I think we go 7-5. But anything from 6-6 to 8-4 would not surprise me.

LOL ... ok but there are folks on here that pretty much have us beating AM/AU every year and always beating our SEC E foe too. And then there's KY which isn't quite the slouch they once were. Some folks have us winning 8, 9, and even 10 some every year now.

Not saying we can't have decent season and do believe 7-5 is about right. But that means we lose 4 somewhere that ain't Bama. Would that not be AM/AU/LSU, maybe OM (at their place), Mizzou, KY?? You'll have a lot of folks thinking we'll beat all those teams except maybe LSU.

ETA: And this with a whole new coaching staff and no spring workouts or practice.

[msu15]

8-4

[MaroonFlounder]

I just hope that by the end of the season, we will be able to say Cohen made the right hire.

So many things often look promising, in multiple sports not just football, only to turn out to be a big disappointment.

I think we look better than MoHead on the scoreboard, yet still get crushed by Bama, LSU, Aub, A&M, and likely whomever the rotating SEC East opponent is...

[confucius say]

LOL ... Would that not be AM/AU/LSU, maybe OM (at their place), Mizzou, KY?? You'll have a lot of folks thinking we'll beat all those teams except maybe LSU.

ETA: And this with a whole new coaching staff and no spring workouts or practice.

Who on here has said we will go 5-0 against Aggie, auburn, OM, Mizzou, KY? I have not seen that, much less a lot of folks.

I've seen more people (Liverpool, coach34) say 5-7,6-6 than people say 10-2.

[ShotgunDawg]

Or ... not see your own problems and assume everyone else not named Bama sucks. Most years this board thinks we will waltz thru AM/AU and our always horrible other SEC East opponent with LSU as a tossup and the icing.

ETA: And for some reason ... it never quite works out that way.

I don't sense that this board consistently feels this way. I would say this board has people normally on both sides & some in the middle.

I don't see people consistently saying we'll waltz through A&M, but up until last year we had beat them 3 years in a row. So maybe those people right.

Additionally, we usually play Auburn very well & frequently win against them in DWS. So again, when we play Auburn at home, it's not a stretch to think we may win that game.

I just don't get your point at all

[ShotgunDawg]

ETA: And this with a whole new coaching staff and no spring workouts or practice.

Again, you can take whatever side of this you want & you seem to be taking the negative side of it.

Other teams are going through similar issues as us in this regard, so we'll see.

[Ari Gold]

I just hope that by the end of the season, we will be able to say Cohen made the right hire.

So many things often look promising, in multiple sports not just football, only to turn out to be a big disappointment.

I think we look better than MoHead on the scoreboard, yet still get crushed by Bama, LSU, Aub, A&M, and likely whomever the rotating SEC East opponent is...


So we are going to get crushed by Mizzu ??

[Ari Gold]

Who on here has said we will go 5-0 against Aggie, auburn, OM, Mizzou, KY? I have not seen that, much less a lot of folks.

I've seen more people (Liverpool, coach34) say 5-7,6-6 than people say 10-2.


It’s silly .. No one has said 10-2... hell I haven’t seen anyone say 9-3
the biggest sunshine pumper I guess is me.. that thinks we have a shot to go 8-4 ..

[dawgday166]

Who on here has said we will go 5-0 against Aggie, auburn, OM, Mizzou, KY? I have not seen that, much less a lot of folks.

I've seen more people (Liverpool, coach34) say 5-7,6-6 than people say 10-2.

2 years ago we had almost everyone returning off what should've been a 10 win team the year before. Everyone on here picked us to win 10 or 11 and rightfully so, except Liverpool who as you say always, regardless poo-poos our chances.

Last year after the 2018 debacle, with Tommy coming in as the next Joe Montana and JoMo having his QB now, most folks had us winning a minimum of 8, even with all our lost personnel from year before. TN was gonna be terrible, cause weil, Shotgun said Pruitt is sucks. It was at TN. Everyone thought KSU was a cakewalk, most had us beating AU/TAM and competing with LSU. Most had us at easy 8 wins, quite a few at 9 wins with a couple (other than Dano and 007) at 10 wins ... cause well Tommy spins a beautiful ball.

Now this year with a new QB who may be very good and at least has better resume than Tommy, people thinking at least 8 or maybe 9. Todd has mentioned possible 10 quite some time ago and that may have been before Covid.

FWIW ... Shotgun always thinks all the other coaches suck outside of Saban ... including Ogre going into last year. Shotgun & Todd quite often overestimate our wins.

We were terrible EVERYWHERE last year. We have a whole new staff ... although the advantage that the O staff has worked together for years. We have for the most part a whole new Oline. We have new O and D schemes that have to be put in. New QB again. Kylin ain't yet the stud everyone wants to believe he is. Will he become so ... maybe we'll see.

So I really don't have a good feel for what we'll put on the field yet. TAM returns almost everyone and most on here think Jimbo sucks ... so we'll see. They smoked us last year with same personnel. I think A&M beats us. AU lost a good bit, but the cupboard ain't totally empty over there. OM and Arky have new coaches too. Everyone laughing at them now because Kiffin sucks but in reality ... he's been a pretty decent coach. Pittman hired 2 really good coordinators. Drinkwitz ... don't know yet. NC State returns a good bit of experience too and ... it's at their place. KY ... I think they would've beat us last year if they hadn't exhausted themselves against FL week before and had their QB issues, their starting LB stud didn't play 1st half, and they were missing a starting CB too I believe. They're not a slouch anymore. Stoops is doing a good job there.

So what I've said and maybe I overstated it a little is several on here overestimate our win totals usually. I believe C34 is underestimating us some this year cause he don't believe in Leach in the SEC. Without really having a feel for it at all, I'm guessing 7-5. Could we win 8 ... maybe. But we could also win just 6 too.

ETA: Now a lot of the predictions I'm referencing did occur right after Costello transferred and before Covid.

[RiverCityDawg]

2 years ago we had almost everyone returning off what should've been a 10 win team the year before. Everyone on here picked us to win 10 or 11 and rightfully so, except Liverpool who as you say always, regardless poo-poos our chances.

Last year after the 2018 debacle, with Tommy coming in as the next Joe Montana and JoMo having his QB now, most folks had us winning a minimum of 8, even with all our lost personnel from year before. TN was gonna be terrible, cause weil, Shotgun said Pruitt is sucks. It was at TN. Everyone thought KSU was a cakewalk, most had us beating AU/TAM and competing with LSU. Most had us at easy 8 wins, quite a few at 9 wins with a couple (other than Dano and 007) at 10 wins ... cause well Tommy spins a beautiful ball.

Now this year with a new QB who may be very good and at least has better resume than Tommy, people thinking at least 8 or maybe 9. Todd has mentioned possible 10 quite some time ago and that may have been before Covid.

FWIW ... Shotgun always thinks all the other coaches suck outside of Saban ... including Ogre going into last year. Shotgun & Todd quite often overestimate our wins.

We were terrible EVERYWHERE last year. We have a whole new staff ... although the advantage that the O staff has worked together for years. We have for the most part a whole new Oline. We have new O and D schemes that have to be put in. New QB again. Kylin ain't yet the stud everyone wants to believe he is. Will he become so ... maybe we'll see.

So I really don't have a good feel for what we'll put on the field yet. TAM returns almost everyone and most on here think Jimbo sucks ... so we'll see. They smoked us last year with same personnel. I think A&M beats us. AU lost a good bit, but the cupboard ain't totally empty over there. OM and Arky have new coaches too. Everyone laughing at them now because Kiffin sucks but in reality ... he's been a pretty decent coach. Pittman hired 2 really good coordinators. Drinkwitz ... don't know yet. NC State returns a good bit of experience too and ... it's at their place. KY ... I think they would've beat us last year if they hadn't exhausted themselves against FL week before and had their QB issues, their starting LB stud didn't play 1st half, and they were missing a starting CB too I believe. They're not a slouch anymore. Stoops is doing a good job there.

So what I've said and maybe I overstated it a little is several on here overestimate our win totals usually. I believe C34 is underestimating us some this year cause he don't believe in Leach in the SEC. Without really having a feel for it at all, I'm guessing 7-5. Could we win 8 ... maybe. But we could also win just 6 too.

ETA: Now a lot of the predictions I'm referencing did occur right after Costello transferred and before Covid.

You said all those words and at the end agree with what most here would say - 7-5 is probably most likely but could be 8 wins or maybe 6. The are probably the same amount of people that think 5 or less as there are that think 9+

[dawgday166]

You said all those words and at the end agree with what most here would say - 7-5 is probably most likely but could be 8 wins or maybe 6. The are probably the same amount of people that think 5 or less as there are that think 9+

Lol ... True. I really was only yanking Gun's chain a little to begin with.

[Coach34]

I don't sense that this board consistently feels this way. I would say this board has people normally on both sides & some in the middle.

How quickly we forget. Before last season a clear majority of the board thought we had great chances to beat Auburn and A&M on the road and were going to win 8-9 games. Posts like "Rivers is as good as Sweat" and "Cole may be better than Abram" were prevalent. "JoMo has his QB" and "Fitz was the problem" were posted over and over.

[ShotgunDawg]

How quickly we forget. Before last season a clear majority of the board thought we had great chances to beat Auburn and A&M on the road and were going to win 8-9 games. Posts like "Rivers is as good as Sweat" and "Cole may be better than Abram" were prevalent. "JoMo has his QB" and "Fitz was the problem" were posted over and over.

Sure and that was obviously wrong. Although, most of that was before tutor gate was known about & accounted for.

Also, it was tough to account for Joe's sucktatude. It was really difficult to fathom how awful he was.

Leach is different. Perhaps it takes longer than one year to get this thing going, but he'a proven, great coach at multiple spots that are more difficult to win at than MSU, & in year 1 at MSU, he's got the most talented roster he's ever coached. That has to matter some.

To say we may win 7 or 8 isn't ridiculous, however, the lack of practice does bring in variables that absolutely no one knows how to account for.

I think we're going to see a crazy fall due to COVID. Teams will lose & win games that they normally wouldn't

[Coach34]

Sure and that was obviously wrong. Although, most of that was before tutor gate was known about & accounted for.

Also, it was tough to account for Joe's sucktatude. It was really difficult to fathom how awful he was.

Leach is different. Perhaps it takes longer than one year to get this thing going, but he'a proven, great coach at multiple spots that are more difficult to win at than MSU, & in year 1 at MSU, he's got the most talented roster he's ever coached. That has to matter some.

To say we may win 7 or 8 isn't ridiculous, however, the lack of practice does bring in variables that absolutely no one knows how to account for.

I think we're going to see a crazy fall due to COVID. Teams will lose & win games that they normally wouldn't

7 wouldnt be ridiculous at all. But that is likely the ceiling. 8 would get Leach COY

Leach is a good coach but this is an unusual year with him getting no Spring practice and us really needing it with the jucos on D
Couple that with the change in Defenses
Then throw in NC State, Mizzou, and A&M return a helluva lot of starters. Kentucky also

But 2020 has been a crazy year and this Fall could be no different.

[dawgday166]

How quickly we forget. Before last season a clear majority of the board thought we had great chances to beat Auburn and A&M on the road and were going to win 8-9 games. Posts like "Rivers is as good as Sweat" and "Cole may be better than Abram" were prevalent. "JoMo has his QB" and "Fitz was the problem" were posted over and over.

Good answer ... better than mine +1.


Sure and that was obviously wrong. Although, most of that was before tutor gate was known about & accounted for.

Also, it was tough to account for Joe's sucktatude. It was really difficult to fathom how awful he was.

Leach is different. Perhaps it takes longer than one year to get this thing going, but he'a proven, great coach at multiple spots that are more difficult to win at than MSU, & in year 1 at MSU, he's got the most talented roster he's ever coached. That has to matter some.

To say we may win 7 or 8 isn't ridiculous, however, the lack of practice does bring in variables that absolutely no one knows how to account for.

I think we're going to see a crazy fall due to COVID. Teams will lose & win games that they normally wouldn't

This is a fairly sound and reasonable post Gun. Somebody steal your password ****

[Commercecomet24]

I believe we win 6 and with a bowl win could get 7. I believe 6 regular seasons wins is very doable with a possibility of 7. If Leach gets us in a bowl in his first season I would consider that a good start and a great omen for the future once he get this roster he wants.

[ShotgunDawg]

I believe we win 6 and with a bowl win could get 7. I believe 6 regular seasons wins is very doable with a possibility of 7. If Leach gets us in a bowl in his first season I would consider that a good start and a great omen for the future once he get this roster he wants.

To me it's how you get there.

I'm more than fine winning 6 games if that means scoring points against LSU, Auburn, & A&M but giving up too many on defense.

I just want to look explosive. We can build on that

[Commercecomet24]

To me it's how you get there.

I'm more than fine winning 6 games if that means scoring points against LSU, Auburn, & A&M but giving up too many on defense.

I just want to look explosive. We can build on that

Yeah I can agree with that. Show competence and good game planning, playcalling, discipline and progress!

[dantheman4248]

Why We'll win:
New Mexico: Talent.
NC State: We aren't losing to a team that went 4-8 in the ACC and is on the downswing
Arkansas: Talent gap is too big. Their new coach is not a miracle worker.
Tulane: Talent.
A&M: Texas recruited stars may be higher rated but they aren't built for real SEC football. Our strength will impose our will on them.
Alabama: We have a bye week before to prepare and we've seen Saban is having a hard time defensively adjusting to the new era of passing. Cupboard offensively may be as bare as it has been in a while in terms of experience.
LSU: Regression to the mean with a super bare cupboard for LSU.
Auburn: Gus has to find his 4 losses where he can. Bo Nix won't thrive in a hostile environment.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops is good at beating bad coaches. Mike Leach is not a bad coach.
Mizzou: Talent.
Alabama A&M: Talent.
Ole Miss: We aren't losing to them.

Why we'll lose:
New Mexico: Installing new offense has bumps. Team not playing together well.
NC State: Same as New Mexico except against team with a little bit more talent.
Arkansas: All hell breaks loose.
Tulane: Defense can't learn to stop the option. Leach's defense is as bad as feared.
A&M: Jimbo actually has shit come together and Aggie makes a run for top 2 in division.
Bama: Can't beat the refs in BDS. On top of well... bama.
LSU: Death Valley eats us alive week after Bama.
Auburn: Defense falls for Gus's tricks and is not what we had hoped.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops beats bad coaches. Our team doesn't get the offense / dc is bad.
Mizzou: See Arkansas.
Alabama A&M: At this point I'd rather COVID stop sports.
Ole Miss: We don't have enough men to field 11 on the roster after they've deliberately injured everyone.

Conclusion: Worst Case scenario is 5-7. New Mexico, Arkansas, Tulane, Missouri, Alabama A&M are gimmes. It would take a Leach not being the guy to be worse than this.

Games we should win: NC State, Kentucky, Ole Miss. They'd be in the first category but they are on the road. Leach wins all 3 of these and he solidified himself as the right hire moving forward.

The other 4 ranked from best chance of winning to worst.
Auburn: Nothing impressive about this team. Nothing stands out. Somehow Gus will lose 4. Georgia and Bama are L's this year imo. That leaves 2 for MSU, A&M, LSU, and UNC. I think he beats LSU as his wtf win and loses to A&M. Between MSU / UNC / Bowl game for the 4th.
LSU: Due for a major regression. Also leaving Alabama alone at the top and opening the door again for a running mate to slide into the top two in the division. If this wasn't at LSU or the week after Bama, this would be above Auburn.
A&M: At some point this "talent" is due and gotta work.
Bama: Bama.

Door is wide open once again for MSU / Auburn / LSU / A&M to have someone break from the group and join Bama. Bama also inches ever closer back to the group as time goes. This door was open for MSU to be the running mate the past two years. Joe Moorhead not being the guy cost us that. Door is still open but it's a bit tougher now. I think A&M ultimately beats us to the punch for the next 2-3 years. If Leach is as good as we hoped though, it could be us.

Plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. This is sports and sports runs on hope. I choose optimism here because it's ultimately for fun and doesn't cost lives. You can choose pessimism and after the season is over / when shit goes haywire run your mouth about how you were right and we were crazy. If that's what brings you the most enjoyment out of sports, I'm sorry for you, but you do you I guess.

I'll just let myself slowly talk myself into the reasons we can win. 8 games on the schedule are very winnable already. What's 4 more. By September I'll have $50 thrown on Costello being the heisman and predict us to win 10 or more. Lot more fun than going in depressed and accepting this notion that we are a 4-5 win team when we've been recruiting our best ever and haven't won less than 5 since Croom.

[Turfdawg67]

2 years ago we had almost everyone returning off what should've been a 10 win team the year before. Everyone on here picked us to win 10 or 11 and rightfully so, except Liverpool who as you say always, regardless poo-poos our chances.

Last year after the 2018 debacle, with Tommy coming in as the next Joe Montana and JoMo having his QB now, most folks had us winning a minimum of 8, even with all our lost personnel from year before. TN was gonna be terrible, cause weil, Shotgun said Pruitt is sucks. It was at TN. Everyone thought KSU was a cakewalk, most had us beating AU/TAM and competing with LSU. Most had us at easy 8 wins, quite a few at 9 wins with a couple (other than Dano and 007) at 10 wins ... cause well Tommy spins a beautiful ball.

Now this year with a new QB who may be very good and at least has better resume than Tommy, people thinking at least 8 or maybe 9. Todd has mentioned possible 10 quite some time ago and that may have been before Covid.

FWIW ... Shotgun always thinks all the other coaches suck outside of Saban ... including Ogre going into last year. Shotgun & Todd quite often overestimate our wins.

We were terrible EVERYWHERE last year. We have a whole new staff ... although the advantage that the O staff has worked together for years. We have for the most part a whole new Oline. We have new O and D schemes that have to be put in. New QB again. Kylin ain't yet the stud everyone wants to believe he is. Will he become so ... maybe we'll see.

So I really don't have a good feel for what we'll put on the field yet. TAM returns almost everyone and most on here think Jimbo sucks ... so we'll see. They smoked us last year with same personnel. I think A&M beats us. AU lost a good bit, but the cupboard ain't totally empty over there. OM and Arky have new coaches too. Everyone laughing at them now because Kiffin sucks but in reality ... he's been a pretty decent coach. Pittman hired 2 really good coordinators. Drinkwitz ... don't know yet. NC State returns a good bit of experience too and ... it's at their place. KY ... I think they would've beat us last year if they hadn't exhausted themselves against FL week before and had their QB issues, their starting LB stud didn't play 1st half, and they were missing a starting CB too I believe. They're not a slouch anymore. Stoops is doing a good job there.

So what I've said and maybe I overstated it a little is several on here overestimate our win totals usually. I believe C34 is underestimating us some this year cause he don't believe in Leach in the SEC. Without really having a feel for it at all, I'm guessing 7-5. Could we win 8 ... maybe. But we could also win just 6 too.

ETA: Now a lot of the predictions I'm referencing did occur right after Costello transferred and before Covid.

So with all that drivel your prediction is between 6-8 wins. Like most of the people on here...

[dantheman4248]

So with all that drivel your prediction is between 6-8 wins. Like most of the people on here...

8 for now. Probably 10-11 by September.

[dawgday166]

So with all that drivel your prediction is between 6-8 wins. Like most of the people on here...

C'mon mane be original ** ... Someone already pointed that out.

[Turfdawg67]

You said all those words and at the end agree with what most here would say - 7-5 is probably most likely but could be 8 wins or maybe 6. The are probably the same amount of people that think 5 or less as there are that think 9+

Beat me to it. Should have read on down! Lol

[Bothrops]

Why We'll win:
New Mexico: Talent.
NC State: We aren't losing to a team that went 4-8 in the ACC and is on the downswing
Arkansas: Talent gap is too big. Their new coach is not a miracle worker.
Tulane: Talent.
A&M: Texas recruited stars may be higher rated but they aren't built for real SEC football. Our strength will impose our will on them.
Alabama: We have a bye week before to prepare and we've seen Saban is having a hard time defensively adjusting to the new era of passing. Cupboard offensively may be as bare as it has been in a while in terms of experience.
LSU: Regression to the mean with a super bare cupboard for LSU.
Auburn: Gus has to find his 4 losses where he can. Bo Nix won't thrive in a hostile environment.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops is good at beating bad coaches. Mike Leach is not a bad coach.
Mizzou: Talent.
Alabama A&M: Talent.
Ole Miss: We aren't losing to them.

Why we'll lose:
New Mexico: Installing new offense has bumps. Team not playing together well.
NC State: Same as New Mexico except against team with a little bit more talent.
Arkansas: All hell breaks loose.
Tulane: Defense can't learn to stop the option. Leach's defense is as bad as feared.
A&M: Jimbo actually has shit come together and Aggie makes a run for top 2 in division.
Bama: Can't beat the refs in BDS. On top of well... bama.
LSU: Death Valley eats us alive week after Bama.
Auburn: Defense falls for Gus's tricks and is not what we had hoped.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops beats bad coaches. Our team doesn't get the offense / dc is bad.
Mizzou: See Arkansas.
Alabama A&M: At this point I'd rather COVID stop sports.
Ole Miss: We don't have enough men to field 11 on the roster after they've deliberately injured everyone.

Conclusion: Worst Case scenario is 5-7. New Mexico, Arkansas, Tulane, Missouri, Alabama A&M are gimmes. It would take a Leach not being the guy to be worse than this.

Games we should win: NC State, Kentucky, Ole Miss. They'd be in the first category but they are on the road. Leach wins all 3 of these and he solidified himself as the right hire moving forward.

The other 4 ranked from best chance of winning to worst.
Auburn: Nothing impressive about this team. Nothing stands out. Somehow Gus will lose 4. Georgia and Bama are L's this year imo. That leaves 2 for MSU, A&M, LSU, and UNC. I think he beats LSU as his wtf win and loses to A&M. Between MSU / UNC / Bowl game for the 4th.
LSU: Due for a major regression. Also leaving Alabama alone at the top and opening the door again for a running mate to slide into the top two in the division. If this wasn't at LSU or the week after Bama, this would be above Auburn.
A&M: At some point this "talent" is due and gotta work.
Bama: Bama.

Door is wide open once again for MSU / Auburn / LSU / A&M to have someone break from the group and join Bama. Bama also inches ever closer back to the group as time goes. This door was open for MSU to be the running mate the past two years. Joe Moorhead not being the guy cost us that. Door is still open but it's a bit tougher now. I think A&M ultimately beats us to the punch for the next 2-3 years. If Leach is as good as we hoped though, it could be us.

Plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. This is sports and sports runs on hope. I choose optimism here because it's ultimately for fun and doesn't cost lives. You can choose pessimism and after the season is over / when shit goes haywire run your mouth about how you were right and we were crazy. If that's what brings you the most enjoyment out of sports, I'm sorry for you, but you do you I guess.

I'll just let myself slowly talk myself into the reasons we can win. 8 games on the schedule are very winnable already. What's 4 more. By September I'll have $50 thrown on Costello being the heisman and predict us to win 10 or more. Lot more fun than going in depressed and accepting this notion that we are a 4-5 win team when we've been recruiting our best ever and haven't won less than 5 since Croom.

NC State has a lot more talent than New Mexico and we are more likely to lose in Raleigh than lose to Arkansas.

[dantheman4248]

NC State has a lot more talent than New Mexico and we are more likely to lose in Raleigh than lose to Arkansas.

These are things I said and agree with..?

[Todd4State]

2 years ago we had almost everyone returning off what should've been a 10 win team the year before. Everyone on here picked us to win 10 or 11 and rightfully so, except Liverpool who as you say always, regardless poo-poos our chances.

Last year after the 2018 debacle, with Tommy coming in as the next Joe Montana and JoMo having his QB now, most folks had us winning a minimum of 8, even with all our lost personnel from year before. TN was gonna be terrible, cause weil, Shotgun said Pruitt is sucks. It was at TN. Everyone thought KSU was a cakewalk, most had us beating AU/TAM and competing with LSU. Most had us at easy 8 wins, quite a few at 9 wins with a couple (other than Dano and 007) at 10 wins ... cause well Tommy spins a beautiful ball.

Now this year with a new QB who may be very good and at least has better resume than Tommy, people thinking at least 8 or maybe 9. Todd has mentioned possible 10 quite some time ago and that may have been before Covid.

FWIW ... Shotgun always thinks all the other coaches suck outside of Saban ... including Ogre going into last year. Shotgun & Todd quite often overestimate our wins.

We were terrible EVERYWHERE last year. We have a whole new staff ... although the advantage that the O staff has worked together for years. We have for the most part a whole new Oline. We have new O and D schemes that have to be put in. New QB again. Kylin ain't yet the stud everyone wants to believe he is. Will he become so ... maybe we'll see.

So I really don't have a good feel for what we'll put on the field yet. TAM returns almost everyone and most on here think Jimbo sucks ... so we'll see. They smoked us last year with same personnel. I think A&M beats us. AU lost a good bit, but the cupboard ain't totally empty over there. OM and Arky have new coaches too. Everyone laughing at them now because Kiffin sucks but in reality ... he's been a pretty decent coach. Pittman hired 2 really good coordinators. Drinkwitz ... don't know yet. NC State returns a good bit of experience too and ... it's at their place. KY ... I think they would've beat us last year if they hadn't exhausted themselves against FL week before and had their QB issues, their starting LB stud didn't play 1st half, and they were missing a starting CB too I believe. They're not a slouch anymore. Stoops is doing a good job there.

So what I've said and maybe I overstated it a little is several on here overestimate our win totals usually. I believe C34 is underestimating us some this year cause he don't believe in Leach in the SEC. Without really having a feel for it at all, I'm guessing 7-5. Could we win 8 ... maybe. But we could also win just 6 too.

ETA: Now a lot of the predictions I'm referencing did occur right after Costello transferred and before Covid.

Typically I give a range and I have said that the floor is 6 wins and the ceiling is 10. If I had to call it I would predict 7.

I'll also say that we grossly underachieved the past two years relative to our talent.

[TrapGame]

2 years ago we had almost everyone returning off what should've been a 10 win team the year before. Everyone on here picked us to win 10 or 11 and rightfully so, except Liverpool who as you say always, regardless poo-poos our chances.

Last year after the 2018 debacle, with Tommy coming in as the next Joe Montana and JoMo having his QB now, most folks had us winning a minimum of 8, even with all our lost personnel from year before. TN was gonna be terrible, cause weil, Shotgun said Pruitt is sucks. It was at TN. Everyone thought KSU was a cakewalk, most had us beating AU/TAM and competing with LSU. Most had us at easy 8 wins, quite a few at 9 wins with a couple (other than Dano and 007) at 10 wins ... cause well Tommy spins a beautiful ball.

Now this year with a new QB who may be very good and at least has better resume than Tommy, people thinking at least 8 or maybe 9. Todd has mentioned possible 10 quite some time ago and that may have been before Covid.

FWIW ... Shotgun always thinks all the other coaches suck outside of Saban ... including Ogre going into last year. Shotgun & Todd quite often overestimate our wins.

We were terrible EVERYWHERE last year. We have a whole new staff ... although the advantage that the O staff has worked together for years. We have for the most part a whole new Oline. We have new O and D schemes that have to be put in. New QB again. Kylin ain't yet the stud everyone wants to believe he is. Will he become so ... maybe we'll see.

So I really don't have a good feel for what we'll put on the field yet. TAM returns almost everyone and most on here think Jimbo sucks ... so we'll see. They smoked us last year with same personnel. I think A&M beats us. AU lost a good bit, but the cupboard ain't totally empty over there. OM and Arky have new coaches too. Everyone laughing at them now because Kiffin sucks but in reality ... he's been a pretty decent coach. Pittman hired 2 really good coordinators. Drinkwitz ... don't know yet. NC State returns a good bit of experience too and ... it's at their place. KY ... I think they would've beat us last year if they hadn't exhausted themselves against FL week before and had their QB issues, their starting LB stud didn't play 1st half, and they were missing a starting CB too I believe. They're not a slouch anymore. Stoops is doing a good job there.

So what I've said and maybe I overstated it a little is several on here overestimate our win totals usually. I believe C34 is underestimating us some this year cause he don't believe in Leach in the SEC. Without really having a feel for it at all, I'm guessing 7-5. Could we win 8 ... maybe. But we could also win just 6 too.

ETA: Now a lot of the predictions I'm referencing did occur right after Costello transferred and before Covid.

Don't forget our discipline was shit. The patients were running the asylum. Leach has brought back discipline with a vengeance. He's not their friend he's their coach. I can see 7-5 as well and I'm willing to bet in those 5 losses none of them are blowouts. They will be fairly close loses.

[MrCoachKlein]

Playing more plays on D wont help either thanks to the Pirate's O.

This fake narrative is still out there?:confused:

Someone broke this down in a thread a few months back. His D's face an average amount of plays.

[BB30]

Don't forget our discipline was shit. The patients were running the asylum. Leach has brought back discipline with a vengeance. He's not their friend he's their coach. I can see 7-5 as well and I'm willing to bet in those 5 losses none of them are blowouts. They will be fairly close loses.

You forgetting we have no SEC caliber WRs? At least that have proven they are SEC caliber?

[TrapGame]

You forgetting we have no SEC caliber WRs? At least that have proven they are SEC caliber?

Let's cool the jets on that narrative, Hoss. Do you remember the article that came out about how Leach coaches his WRs? Leach has turned 2 stars and walk ons into NFL draft picks. Let's just wait and see.