buy or sell - Costello is a first round pick next year.

[Walkerhill]

I buy.

[Todd4State]

Soft buy.

[ShotgunDawg]

I buy.

We don't have the WRs for him to make a Burrow type run, unless Heath turns into He man, but I could seem him being compared to Herbert if everything clicks. Mid 1st rounder maybe

[TheLostDawg]

Sell. We need wr to step up significantly and Costello hasn't been able to practice with them to get in rhythm. I think that if everything had gone as planned then yes.

[ShotgunDawg]

Sell. We need wr to step up significantly and Costello hasn't been able to practice with them to get in rhythm. I think that if everything had gone as planned then yes.

Good points. Costello is extremely bright & Leach's offense is apparently easy to learn.

It will rest on our WRs though.

[MetEdDawg]

This is hard. You've got a lot of teams with temporary QB situations next year or have aging QBs. Bears, Broncos, Falcons, Saints, Bucs, Colts, Patriots, Lions, and Steelers all come to mind as ones that might would take one first round.

I'll say sell. I think he's the 5th QB off the board and goes 2nd round.

[vv83]

Hard sell

[ZedFedder]

Sell, but I say 2-3rd round.

[dawgday166]

Sell, but I say 2-3rd round.

Same here.

[TUSK]

I'll short that investment vehicle...

[Todd4State]

I don't think we really know what we have with our team. I think suspensions, lack of discipline, and poor S&C cost us three games last year- K-State, Tennessee, and the Music City Bowl. I think it also skews our opinions of what our talent level is. And yes, MSU fans are always wait and see conservative believe it till I see it people.

I also think the worst part of Moorhead's system was how he used our personnel with his belief in the "top five"- which basically limited us unnecessarily. Especially when it relied on our top three WR's which was a weakness in our team. It limited how we used guys like Aeris Williams and Nick Gibson. Kylin catches the ball as well or better than some of our receivers. Why not use Hill in the slot some or even outside some when you don't lose a lot with Aeris or Gibson at RB?

With Leach we're going to get more guys touches. That's only going to benefit us as the best offenses I have seen IMO all spread the ball around to all eligible receivers and runners.

[msstate7]

Sell.

Doubt there's any college football this fall, and he isn't a current 1st

[Todd4State]

Sell.

Doubt there's any college football this fall, and he isn't a current 1st

The vast majority of AD's disagree with you. About football this fall. Not Costello.

The fact that the country is about to start opening up gradually soon makes me side with the AD's.

[msstate7]

The vast majority of AD's disagree with you. About football this fall. Not Costello.

The fact that the country is about to start opening up gradually soon makes me side with the AD's.

I really wanna be wrong.

[ScoobaDawg]

Sell...not buying. We don't have the wr and who knows when he gets to start syncing with the wr's we have..

[dawgday166]

I don't think we really know what we have with our team. I think suspensions, lack of discipline, and poor S&C cost us three games last year- K-State, Tennessee, and the Music City Bowl. I think it also skews our opinions of what our talent level is. And yes, MSU fans are always wait and see conservative believe it till I see it people.

I also think the worst part of Moorhead's system was how he used our personnel with his belief in the "top five"- which basically limited us unnecessarily. Especially when it relied on our top three WR's which was a weakness in our team. It limited how we used guys like Aeris Williams and Nick Gibson. Kylin catches the ball as well or better than some of our receivers. Why not use Hill in the slot some or even outside some when you don't lose a lot with Aeris or Gibson at RB?

With Leach we're going to get more guys touches. That's only going to benefit us as the best offenses I have seen IMO all spread the ball around to all eligible receivers and runners.

I dunno ... Most times I read these boards a lot folks saying 8 min and 10 max. And that's in years where there's practically no way. Despite the fact that we've only had a 10 win season 3 or so times in our history.

[dawgday166]

I was thinking 3rd while ago and maybe with really good year 2nd. But more I think about it ... Too many variables so I'm saying 3rd to 5th if he don't get hurt.

[KOdawg1]

Sell

[Cloak]

Sell. 4th round

[Todd4State]

I dunno ... Most times I read these boards a lot folks saying 8 min and 10 max. And that's in years where there's practically no way. Despite the fact that we've only had a 10 win season 3 or so times in our history.

10 wins is "special" for us. But we have been consistently winning 8 games a year. And now a down year for us is 6-6. That's pretty good relative to our history. If we maintain 8 wins in a typical year for us getting to 9-10 really isn't a stretch.

I normally give a range because there are always toss up games that can go one way or the other. I think our floor is about 6 wins and 10 is probably our ceiling. There's just more unknown with this team than other years.

[dawgday166]

10 wins is "special" for us. But we have been consistently winning 8 games a year. And now a down year for us is 6-6. That's pretty good relative to our history. If we maintain 8 wins in a typical year for us getting to 9-10 really isn't a stretch.

I normally give a range because there are always toss up games that can go one way or the other. I think our floor is about 6 wins and 10 is probably our ceiling. There's just more unknown with this team than other years.

I'm talking reg season now ... no bowls. I think that's doable but it historically hasn't been likely. We won 9 once and 10 once under Mullen. Last year people were off-the-charts on our potential with a new unproven QB, a terrible coach, and decent turnover on Oline and Dlines. Made no sense.

Going into this year (before COVID) folks thinking 9 or 10 wins in some cases with new coach/staff and many question marks at several positions. We have good QB coming in but, last time I checked, this ain't singles tennis or golf.

[basedog]

Sell, way too many unknowns for this years team. Chemistry will be the mystery with players and coaches not getting a chance to be around each other. Also not knowing who is working out and staying in shape plus guys who need rehab and there progress. I think the teams with new Coaches and with younger players on roster will have the biggest problems especially early.

I'm in the crowd with a wait and see with Leach, not that I don't think he is a bad Coach, but playing in the Sec and west division is by far the toughest league in the country. Leach has been good at other places but I wouldn't grade him great. Maybe this lay off benefits him to be driven and prove he can be a winner or maybe he has become secure and feeling relaxed at Key West thinking at 58 or 59 years what retirement feels like. Ain't many Saban's worried about retirement or the drive.

[FISHDAWG]

sell ... if he was that good he would have already declared for this year

[ShotgunDawg]

sell ... if he was that good he would have already declared for this year

Well, I might have had he not gotten hurt and actually played year.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Sell. Mid Rd. selection if he has a good year. The draft is stacked with QBs next year. Lawrence, Fields, Book, Ehlinger, Newman, Trask, Mond, Buechele, etc.. I'm not saying it's a great class, but there's just a bunch of QBs that Costello would have to jump. He'd need a Joe Burrow type season to be a 1st round pick.

[ShotgunDawg]

Sell. Mid Rd. selection if he has a good year. The draft is stacked with QBs next year. Lawrence, Fields, Book, Ehlinger, Newman, Trask, Mond, Buechele, etc.. I'm not saying it's a great class, but there's just a bunch of QBs that Costello would have to jump. He'd need a Joe Burrow type season to be a 1st round pick.

He's more talented than all you listed except Lawrence & Fields. Your list actually makes me more convinced he has a real chance at being a 1st rounder

Not true on him needing a Burrow type year. Jordan Love had a bad year & still went in the 1st round.

Lawrence & Fields will both be top 5 picks & that sets the stage for 1-2 more QBs to go in the 1st round. Costello likely has the most raw talent of any of those other options

Book, Ehlinger, Trask, & Buechele are clearly not near as talented.

I'm not as sure on Mond & Newman. Mond has always confused me & I haven't see Newman play much

[Irondawg]

Sell - I think he's a good college QB but not sure he's an elite NFL prospect. However you never know exactly what they look for as the hype machine can go up and down. Look at Burrow vs. Fromm for example.

[ShotgunDawg]

Found this article & it kinda lays out his draft status as it stood before he was injured.

It's just tough to say due to how bad the NFL is at evaluating QBs.

So long as he stays healthy, Costello will put up big numbers & throw the ball often along with being the most talented QB Leach has coached.

Odds are he won't be a first rounder. That's the safe pick. However, I think there is a path there.

https://withthefirstpick.com/2019/06/21/stanford-qb-k-j-costello-likely-to-enter-2020-nfl-draft/

[ShotgunDawg]

Sell - I think he's a good college QB but not sure he's an elite NFL prospect. However you never know exactly what they look for as the hype machine can go up and down. Look at Burrow vs. Fromm for example.

Remember when I said Fromm wasn't a 5 star?

I was right.

[msstate7]

Remember when I said Fromm wasn't a 5 star?

I was right.

Such an odd statement. Fromm is about to be an nfl qb 3 years out of HS. And he wasn't a 5-star to start with

[PMDawg]

Oh, we're doing this again? Geez. The guy hasn't played a single down for us. Hell, we probably won't even have football in the fall.

[KOdawg1]

Oh, we're doing this again? Geez. The guy hasn't played a single down for us. Hell, we probably won't even have football in the fall.
We're having football in the fall.

[PMDawg]

We're having football in the fall.

Maybe. But if we do, I'm not sure there will be people in the stands. Hope you're right.

[ShotgunDawg]

Oh, we're doing this again? Geez. The guy hasn't played a single down for us. Hell, we probably won't even have football in the fall.

Relax. We're just spit balling.

Stop being so damn serious.

[msstate7]

We're having football in the fall.

I say nfl will, bit I think college is hardly a given

[AmiteDog]

We're having football in the fall.
Not gonna happen. Book it

[RiverCityDawg]

Found this article & it kinda lays out his draft status as it stood before he was injured.

It's just tough to say due to how bad the NFL is at evaluating QBs.

So long as he stays healthy, Costello will put up big numbers & throw the ball often along with being the most talented QB Leach has coached.

Odds are he won't be a first rounder. That's the safe pick. However, I think there is a path there.

https://withthefirstpick.com/2019/06/21/stanford-qb-k-j-costello-likely-to-enter-2020-nfl-draft/

You're right about how bad the NFL is at evaluating QBs. Even first rounders are coin flips at best. After that, finding a quality starting QB in the draft is like hitting the lottery.

With that said, I think Costello has a few things working in his favor:
1) He "looks" like an NFL QB, meaning he's big, tall, and has a strong arm. That still matters.
2) He'll (presumably) have two coaches attest to his leadership abilities and ability to read defenses. I've heard glowing remarks from Shaw about these two things and I'm going to assume Leach will agree.
3) He'll (presumably) have put up really productive numbers in two different systems and at State people will no doubt say he did it "where he didn't have a lot of help around him". The advancement of the Air Raid in the NFL has helped shake the "system QB" issue faced by people like Mahomes in the past.
4) He'll be doing whatever he does in "the hardest division in football". This could obviously work against him if he's NOT productive, but we're assuming he is in line with other Leach QBs.

The ingredients are there, he/Leach/WRs just have to put it together. If we win 8 or 9 games and he throws for 4500 with 40+ TDs and 10 picks, I think he'll be a first rounder. Those numbers sound crazy but not in anyway outlandish relative to other Leach QBs.

[R2Dawg]

Sell, but I say 2-3rd round.

Ditto. 2nd at best due to virus impact on year, perception of MSU (although coming from CML will help as will his career at Stanford). and potentially WR issues.

[StarkVegasSteve]

He's more talented than all you listed except Lawrence & Fields. Your list actually makes me more convinced he has a real chance at being a 1st rounder

Not true on him needing a Burrow type year. Jordan Love had a bad year & still went in the 1st round.

Lawrence & Fields will both be top 5 picks & that sets the stage for 1-2 more QBs to go in the 1st round. Costello likely has the most raw talent of any of those other options

Book, Ehlinger, Trask, & Buechele are clearly not near as talented.

I'm not as sure on Mond & Newman. Mond has always confused me & I haven't see Newman play much

He might be more talented that's a completely opinionated statement. But he's playing in the toughest division in the toughest league. He has to go to Alabama and to LSU. If he plays well there then he'll definitely put himself into that conversation. That's why I make the Burrow comparison. Going into the year, Burrow was a 6th round pick and most mock drafts have Costello as the same thing. Burrow went into Texas and lit them up, played well in home games against Florida and Auburn and then went to Tuscaloosa and played great. Costello will rise if we rise. 7-8 win season probably puts him in the 3-5 rd. range. He's not going to be a first rounder unless we have a very special season.

[R2Dawg]

I say nfl will, bit I think college is hardly a given

NFL certainly easier since they don't have to have 20-50K people on campus. Still up in the air but I heard other day some schools are already making plans to be open in fall. I'd say it is 75% right now school open in fall. If school is open, then there will be ball.

[Todd4State]

NFL certainly easier since they don't have to have 20-50K people on campus. Still up in the air but I heard other day some schools are already making plans to be open in fall. I'd say it is 75% right now school open in fall. If school is open, then there will be ball.

The way Sankey was talking the other day I don't know that it matters if students are on campus or not as far as football goes.

[Coach34]

Oh, we're doing this again? Geez. The guy hasn't played a single down for us. Hell, we probably won't even have football in the fall.

HS workouts start June 1st in Mississippi

[KOdawg1]

Not gonna happen. Book it

We're having football. 97% of ADs disagree with you

[PMDawg]

HS workouts start June 1st in Mississippi

That's really an aside. My main point is we hype our QB every preseason, and it just doesn't really pan out. Now, I know we'll set passing records under Leach, but it's way to early to debate this. There's just too many unknowns. Let's at least see him throw 1 pass to our WRs before we go here.

[Coach34]

That's really an aside. My main point is we hype our QB every preseason, and it just doesn't really pan out. Now, I know we'll set passing records under Leach, but it's way to early to debate this. There's just too many unknowns. Let's at least see him throw 1 pass to our WRs before we go here.

oh I agree completely with that

[dawgday166]

Such an odd statement. Fromm is about to be an nfl qb 3 years out of HS. And he wasn't a 5-star to start with

It's Shotgun dude **

[State82]

Hard sell. Just WAY too many variables and unknowns to buy at this time. It would be outstanding if he does but no way I'm betting on it.

[Todd4State]

That's really an aside. My main point is we hype our QB every preseason, and it just doesn't really pan out. Now, I know we'll set passing records under Leach, but it's way to early to debate this. There's just too many unknowns. Let's at least see him throw 1 pass to our WRs before we go here.

Dak? Fitz set the SEC rushing record for QB's although yes, his passing left a lot to be desired.

Part of the problem there is we have fans that aren't impressed or appreciate what some of our players are doing and overly critical at times of some of them. Literally I could see us having a QB throw 5 TD's 0 INT's and go 36/40 and we would have some fans "worried about" something like his throwing motion or those four incompletions. Either that or our fans would downplay the competition. Either it's "yeah but it's just Louisiana Tech" or it's "yeah but Alabama was way down that year."

The reality is this: Costello is a talented QB. First round? I don't know. Dak wasn't. Neither were Joe Montana or Tom Brady two of the best I have ever seen. Nor was Drew Brees. So it doesn't really matter. Best case scenario is he is has a year like Gardner Minchew. Leach produces QB's that typically get drafted- we'll see if Anthony Gordon gets picked tomorrow. It's reasonable to predict that Costello has a good chance to get drafted next year.

[Todd4State]

HS workouts start June 1st in Mississippi

And gyms will be open as part of Phase one. Meaning it's very reasonable to think that college teams could begin summer workouts.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Dak? Fitz set the SEC rushing record for QB's although yes, his passing left a lot to be desired.

Part of the problem there is we have fans that aren't impressed or appreciate what some of our players are doing and overly critical at times of some of them. Literally I could see us having a QB throw 5 TD's 0 INT's and go 36/40 and we would have some fans "worried about" something like his throwing motion or those four incompletions. Either that or our fans would downplay the competition. Either it's "yeah but it's just Louisiana Tech" or it's "yeah but Alabama was way down that year."

The reality is this: Costello is a talented QB. First round? I don't know. Dak wasn't. Neither were Joe Montana or Tom Brady two of the best I have ever seen. Nor was Drew Brees. So it doesn't really matter. Best case scenario is he is has a year like Gardner Minchew. Leach produces QB's that typically get drafted- we'll see if Anthony Gordon gets picked tomorrow. It's reasonable to predict that Costello has a good chance to get drafted next year.

I agree that Costello has a good chance to be selected. I think even if he has just a decent season he'll be selected. However, to be a 1st rounder it would take a VERY special Heisman type season. I just don't know that we have the WRs that could help produce that type of season.

[Todd4State]

I agree that Costello has a good chance to be selected. I think even if he has just a decent season he'll be selected. However, to be a 1st rounder it would take a VERY special Heisman type season. I just don't know that we have the WRs that could help produce that type of season.

Or really do we have the year to do it? If we go 11-2 like Washington State- maybe. I think our receivers potentially improve quite a bit honestly. Osiris has improved every year and he's a senior. Heath only went JUCO because of JPS BS. I bet he's an upgrade over Guidry. I think Javonta Payton, Dontae Jones, and Austin Williams were all underutilized under Joe and not sure what we have there but all have showed glimpses at times. Payton is an extremely hard worker. I think he has a good year. Spivey was rumored to be looking good in workouts as well.

[dawgday166]

Or really do we have the year to do it? If we go 11-2 like Washington State- maybe. I think our receivers potentially improve quite a bit honestly. Osiris has improved every year and he's a senior. Heath only went JUCO because of JPS BS. I bet he's an upgrade over Guidry. I think Javonta Payton, Dontae Jones, and Austin Williams were all underutilized under Joe and not sure what we have there but all have showed glimpses at times. Payton is an extremely hard worker. I think he has a good year. Spivey was rumored to be looking good in workouts as well.

You think 11-2 is possible?

[Walkerhill]

I wish I had worded this differently.

What I was really wondering: do you think Costello has the upside potential to be a 1st round pick of this year (if things go well - there is actually football, KJ stays healthy, and so on).

I was not wondering if it is guaranteed, but rather whether it is possible in an ideal but still realistic scenario.

Related question - the top concerns seem to be covid19 impacts, throwing mechanics, and wr. On wide receiver, do you think the State wr in 2020 are better or worse than Wazoo in 2019?

[Todd4State]

You think 11-2 is possible?

I think it's "possible" but I also don't think it's likely. 11-2 would be everything went right and we had a special season. 11-2 is pretty much the top of the ceiling. I think we will probably finish something like 8-4 if I had to predict it.

[Todd4State]

I wish I had worded this differently.

What I was really wondering: do you think Costello has the upside potential to be a 1st round pick of this year (if things go well - there is actually football, KJ stays healthy, and so on).

I was not wondering if it is guaranteed, but rather whether it is possible in an ideal but still realistic scenario.

Related question - the top concerns seem to be covid19 impacts, throwing mechanics, and wr. On wide receiver, do you think the State wr in 2020 are better or worse than Wazoo in 2019?

I think he has the upside to become a first round pick.

As far as the WR's- my guess is we're probably about the same but since we're in a more difficult league the results could be less statistically.

Also as far as social distancing- I'm not sure why Costello couldn't get with our receivers and throw to them right now. I've seen videos of our players working out with private trainers in gyms and it would be like going to a park essentially.

[dantheman4248]

Buy. If Tommy can get drafted then KJ will be #1. Last time Leach was in the SEC he had a qb go #1 overall so statistics say KJ Costello first overall.

Stats are undeniable I ran the simulations it's all gonna work out.

[dawgday166]

Buy. If Tommy can get drafted then KJ will be #1. Last time Leach was in the SEC he had a qb go #1 overall so statistics say KJ Costello first overall.

Stats are undeniable I ran the simulations it's all gonna work out.

You left out these **** when saying "stats are undeniable". Remember, it all depends on your GR&A.

[StateDawg44]

Dak? Fitz set the SEC rushing record for QB's although yes, his passing left a lot to be desired.

Part of the problem there is we have fans that aren't impressed or appreciate what some of our players are doing and overly critical at times of some of them. Literally I could see us having a QB throw 5 TD's 0 INT's and go 36/40 and we would have some fans "worried about" something like his throwing motion or those four incompletions. Either that or our fans would downplay the competition. Either it's "yeah but it's just Louisiana Tech" or it's "yeah but Alabama was way down that year."

The reality is this: Costello is a talented QB. First round? I don't know. Dak wasn't. Neither were Joe Montana or Tom Brady two of the best I have ever seen. Nor was Drew Brees. So it doesn't really matter. Best case scenario is he is has a year like Gardner Minchew. Leach produces QB's that typically get drafted- we'll see if Anthony Gordon gets picked tomorrow. It's reasonable to predict that Costello has a good chance to get drafted next year.

Yeah but he just has this hitch.

You can't fix a hitch.

[Bothrops]

Thanks to the Chinese Govt, we don't know a damn thing about nothing right now.

[msstate7]

Fox buys... Costello in their early draft for 2021

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/2021-nfl-mock-draft-trevor-lawrence-projections-042720

[Todd4State]

Fox buys... Costello in their early draft for 2021

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/2021-nfl-mock-draft-trevor-lawrence-projections-042720

I wish Costello would talk Little and Adedo into coming to MSU with him. That would fill some needs immediately.