Updated severe weather thread

[starkvegasdawg]

Since there were multiple severe weather threads going I thought I'd make a new main one.

Wednesday night and Thursday:
Severe storms look to move into western MS sometime after dark. Main threat will be straight line winds and hail, but the tornado threat may increase some after midnight as low level shear increases. Thursday comes down to which model you believe. The GFS has the system moving on through AL bringing a severe threat there with all modes possible. This will be a little more significant than in MS which is why parts of AL are under an enhanced threat. If you believe the NAM then Thursday is Armageddon and the governor needs to be looking for Bruce Willis to save the day. It is slowing the system down and bringing in some scary parameters. If, massive if, the NAM verifies, parts of AL south and east of a Tuscaloosa to Birmingham line will see some very bad weather. Good news is the NAM is pretty much the outlier of the models. Hopefully, the models will all have a meeting and come to an agreement during the night or day tomorrow.

This weekend:
The GFS is bringing in another storm system Friday evening into early Saturday. It has been trying to introduce some severe weather across the northern half of the state Friday night, but I'm not impressed...yet. The morning run was showing some strong parameters in very northwest MS but I'm usually leery of believing that when it's over so small an area. Still time to watch it after the midweek system does its thing.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks keep us updated! I do not wish this weather on anyone but I hope and pray south and central Mississippi get a break this time. We need it. Please understand I don't want that type Weather for anyone.

[parabrave]

Whats the "NAM"> To some of the older posters it might bring back visions of palm trees, Rice Paddies and thickass canopied mountains.

[Harrydawg]

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/north-american-mesoscale-forecast-system-nam

I also wondered

[parabrave]

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/north-american-mesoscale-forecast-system-nam

I also wondered

Thanks. Now if we can get SVD or Ref to give us an hour period of instruction on it using ED Zoom we might be able to understand it.

[starkvegasdawg]

The evening runs of the NAM and a couple other models are in and not much has changed. The NAM is still requiring the presence of Bruce Willis while the others are still showing severe weather, but not as bad and also confined further south into AL. The SPC will update their maps around 1:00am. I'm sure the insomnia will have me awake at some point around then and I'll give it a look to see their latest thinking.

[parabrave]

Hey SVD if you're still up check out the GEO lightning strikes for Texohoma.

[confucius say]

How today's models look?

[Red Sox Dawg]

Bump

[parabrave]

Things are starting to take shape around Tyler Shreveport area which will eventually head down the 20 corridor later. Checkout the GOES East IRlongwave.

[starkvegasdawg]

They're still the same as last night which leads me to think it may not be as bad as the NAM is hyping it up to be. The SPC will update again in about 30 minutes. I expect them to stay enhanced. It's looking like the morning round of storms will pollute the environment and interfere with the afternoon round of storms from reaching their potential. But as stated earlier, if that doesn't happen then parts of AL are going to have a bad day.

[Commercecomet24]

They're still the same as last night which leads me to think it may not be as bad as the NAM is hyping it up to be. The SPC will update again in about 30 minutes. I expect them to stay enhanced. It's looking like the morning round of storms will pollute the environment and interfere with the afternoon round of storms from reaching their potential. But as stated earlier, if that doesn't happen then parts of AL are going to have a bad day.

What's your prediction for South Mississippi?

[TNDawg35]

Any idea Just North of Memphis? Do I need to sleep in the morning or can I go turkey hunting...

[starkvegasdawg]

Any idea Just North of Memphis? Do I need to sleep in the morning or can I go turkey hunting...

It looks like most of the organized rain will move out 3:00am-5:00am or so with just some sprinkles left over.

[starkvegasdawg]

What's your prediction for South Mississippi?

You could see some severe weather but right now I don't see it being anything like the last two weeks.

[Commercecomet24]

You could see some severe weather but right now I don't see it being anything like the last two weeks.

Thank you!

[parabrave]

Wow latest forecast for the coast just moved back our storm period to mid morning and slashed our severe threat and rainfall amount. But a little concerning to our neighbors to the north is we have been getting high southerly winds out of the gulf averaging around 25 mph most of the day and it is laden with moisture.

[Churchill]

Change it up quite a bit for the Jackson area also for intensity and timing.

[RocketDawg]

2 (so far) killed in Oklahoma tornado. What seems to be a big one bearing down on Jasper, Texas. They've been flattened before. Shreveport getting heavy rains, just issued a tornado watch for them.

[Dawgology]

So how are we looking in the Golden Triangle region? All I've see is around midnight maybe some strong t-storms.

[notsofarawaydawg]

My cousin just sent me damage photos from Lake Livingston , Texas.

[parabrave]

Hey comencent Dog. You might want to stay up for a few more hours. There is a Tornadic cell which just crossed the river south of Natchez and its tracking ENE. you have a Severe Tstorm cell heading ENE out of Mccomb and its starting to form a Bow. Looks like this is tracking towards 84

[starkvegasdawg]

The worst weather for the remainder of the evening looks to be confined south of I-20. It will continue to push east into AL during the remainder of the overnight hours. The SPC is still expecting a second round of discrete supercells to develop over far eastern MS and into AL Thursday afternoon and for these storms to pose a possibly significant tornado threat. It may we'll happen but I'm just not impressed with what I'm seeing. I cancelled my chase plans into AL today as I just didn't see enough to warrant burning a day of vacation and driving 4 hours one way. Of course, I know now that I've cancelled my chase I've just doomed AL to a major outbreak. My apologies.

For those tired of all the severe weather there is light at the end of the tunnel. Our spring severe weather season should be winding down in the next 2-3 weeks as the dynamics start to shift out to the Plains and we begin our transition to our typical stagnant hot and humid summer pattern. By June we begin our watch of the tropics which also have some promise to be active as Gulf sea surface temps are already bathtub hot in the mid 80's in places.

[starkvegasdawg]

Confirmed tornado west of McComb. Debris signature evident on radar.

[DownwardDawg]

Tornado sirens sounding again here in Covington county.

[Commercecomet24]

Everyone ok? Sirens went off here around 430 and power went out. Tornado went just Northeast of us and went through Sandersville area. I'm tired of this weather. Need a bright sunny day with no tornadoes and no virus!

[parabrave]

Still not a drop here in Biloxi.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm going out on a limb. I think the bad weather is pretty much over today for MS. Possible exception is extreme eastern and southern portions of the state but I'm not holding my breath. I also don't think it will be as bad as previously thought in AL.

Beyond, today we could see some storms Friday night in the north part of the state. Right now not looking very impressive. After that the current long range models aren't really showing anything currently.

[Jack Lambert]

It got bad here in Brandon around 2:00 this morning. Apparently one touch just a few miles from here.

[parabrave]

If anyone is interested there is a video from a guy called Pecos Hank of a tornado touching right down infront of him yesterday.

[Bodawg]

[QUOTE=parabrave;1245309]If anyone is interested there is a video from a guy called Pecos Hank of a tornado touching right down infront of him yesterday.[/QUOTE

Pecos has a lot of good tornado videos. He has one of the Louisville MS storm a few years back.

[RocketDawg]

If anyone is interested there is a video from a guy called Pecos Hank of a tornado touching right down infront of him yesterday.

Got a link?

[parabrave]

Got a link?

Youtube Pecos Hank

[starkvegasdawg]

If anyone is interested there is a video from a guy called Pecos Hank of a tornado touching right down infront of him yesterday.

That is one stupid individual. If he keeps intentionally getting that close we will be reading his obit one day as one of three things will happen.
1. He'll misjudge the track and get hit.
2. He'll get hit by a satellite tornado he never knew was there.
3. He'll get a piece of debris through the windshield.

[Commercecomet24]

That is one stupid individual. If he keeps intentionally getting that close we will be reading his obit one day as one of three things will happen.
1. He'll misjudge the track and get hit.
2. He'll get hit by a satellite tornado he never knew was there.
3. He'll get a piece of debris through the windshield.

Wind up like the bad guy from Twister.

[starkvegasdawg]

Wind up like the bad guy from Twister.

Pretty much. It's one thing to screw up and end up that close or inside one. It's something else altogether to do it on purpose when you're not in a TIV or Dominator.

[parabrave]

Pretty much. It's one thing to screw up and end up that close or inside one. It's something else altogether to do it on purpose when you're not in a TIV or Dominator.

What do you think of Reed trimmer of the persons from LSM?

[parabrave]

Pretty much. It's one thing to screw up and end up that close or inside one. It's something else altogether to do it on purpose when you're not in a TIV or Dominator.

Was watching Jim Bettis meeting with the El Reno Tornado last night. What was he thinking about trying to out race the storm?

[starkvegasdawg]

Was watching Jim Bettis meeting with the El Reno Tornado last night. What was he thinking about trying to out race the storm?

It was about their only choice. It changed course and expanded in size very quickly leaving them no choice. That was the same tornado that killed Tim Samaris.

[starkvegasdawg]

What do you think of Reed trimmer of the persons from LSM?

Reed at least has a vehicle equipped to handle a direct hit. When he's not in it he's more careful.

If you're referring to the two guys a couple weeks ago from LSM they were stupid for doing that. There was no reason for it and got what they deserve.

[RocketDawg]

I think it's Mike Bettis. He just about got killed in that storm - his vehicle was rolled and totally destroyed, and one longtime chaser and his son lost their lives.

[RocketDawg]

Reed at least has a vehicle equipped to handle a direct hit. When he's not in it he's more careful.

If you're referring to the two guys a couple weeks ago from LSM they were stupid for doing that. There was no reason for it and got what they deserve.

I don't think I've heard that story. Also don't know what LSM is.

[RocketDawg]

Reed at least has a vehicle equipped to handle a direct hit. When he's not in it he's more careful.

If you're referring to the two guys a couple weeks ago from LSM they were stupid for doing that. There was no reason for it and got what they deserve.

Wasn't Reed Trimmer one of the guys who had a segment on Mythbusters where they had his vehicle and one other behind a 747 with the engines running full speed?

[starkvegasdawg]

I don't think I've heard that story. Also don't know what LSM is.

LSM is live stream media. It's run by a chaser in AL named Bret Adair. They get footage and sell it to the media. A couple of his guys were in MS for that first long track tornado on Easter. The storm had passed and they were videoing damage. They got hung up in traffic on the interstate and jumped the median and drove the wrong way for a good ways down the road. One was fired and one was suspended for six months.

[starkvegasdawg]

Wasn't Reed Trimmer one of the guys who had a segment on Mythbusters where they had his vehicle and one other behind a 747 with the engines running full speed?

Yep. I saw that episode. The other chaser with him in his armored car pretty much hate each other. I'm surprised they agreed to do the show together.

[parabrave]

LSM is live stream media. It's run by a chaser in AL named Bret Adair. They get footage and sell it to the media. A couple of his guys were in MS for that first long track tornado on Easter. The storm had passed and they were videoing damage. They got hung up in traffic on the interstate and jumped the median and drove the wrong way for a good ways down the road. One was fired and one was suspended for six months.

I saw that/ What complete asshats. Who were the 2 chasers driving down Hardy Street when the tornado went through Hattiesburg and USM Campus? I wanted to shove a sock down one guys throat he was so irritating.

[starkvegasdawg]

I saw that/ What complete asshats. Who were the 2 chasers driving down Hardy Street when the tornado went through Hattiesburg and USM Campus? I wanted to shove a sock down one guys throat he was so irritating.

I know who you're talking about but I don't remember their names.

[RocketDawg]

LSM is live stream media. It's run by a chaser in AL named Bret Adair. They get footage and sell it to the media. A couple of his guys were in MS for that first long track tornado on Easter. The storm had passed and they were videoing damage. They got hung up in traffic on the interstate and jumped the median and drove the wrong way for a good ways down the road. One was fired and one was suspended for six months.

OK, yes, I remember seeing that video. But I'd not heard the result of their actions. Some years ago - maybe 20 or so - Brett posted frequently on a weather board I frequented that was run by a tv station in Birmingham. He was just a kid then, and was all enthused about the weather and forecasting. I think he went to MSU for a degree in meteorology.

[parabrave]

Hey SVD what do you make of those cells in the Shreveport Alexander area/ Looks like something is trying to get started.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey SVD what do you make of those cells in the Shreveport Alexander area/ Looks like something is trying to get started.

They're pure nasty. Was just looking at one of them and it had winds up to 80mph. Others have had up to 2.5" hail. They should weaken before it gets into MS.

As long as I'm here I'll go on and say keep an eye on Tuesday / Tuesday night. Looks like the severe weather machine may try fo fire back up again. Wouldn't be surprised to see a severe threat delineated by the SPC tonight for Tuesday.

[parabrave]

They're pure nasty. Was just looking at one of them and it had winds up to 80mph. Others have had up to 2.5" hail. They should weaken before it gets into MS.

As long as I'm here I'll go on and say keep an eye on Tuesday / Tuesday night. Looks like the severe weather machine may try fo fire back up again. Wouldn't be surprised to see a severe threat delineated by the SPC tonight for Tuesday.

Yep I was wondering if we needed to suggest to Comencent that he might want to stay up tonight.**

[starkvegasdawg]

Yep I was wondering if we needed to suggest to Comencent that he might want to stay up tonight.**

I'm expecting them to weaken the further east they go.