Next possible severe threats

[starkvegasdawg]

I may be jumping the gun a little on this, but I'm doing it anyway. The next severe threat looks to be this Sunday. It will be primarily for areas of MS along and south of I-20. Right now main threats look to be damaging straight line winds and hail. The tornado threat for Sunday's system doesn't look to impressive currently. However, a second more potent threat looks to be looming on the horizon for next Wednesday. I hesitated to even mention this one eight days out, but with so many people still in clean up mode after Sunday I wanted to give as much heads up as possible to what might be coming down the pipeline. Just keep in mind this far out a lot can and will change. It's even possible the models will kill the system, but the GFS has been pretty consistent with it for a while. Not going to go into details about what is and is not expected with this possible event, but I will mention that as of right now all modes of severe weather look possible. Now I'll let Ref chastise me for mentioning something this far out.

[FISHDAWG]

Stark ... you shouldn't take chastisement from anyone because you're too good at what you do ... I (and most of the board) have learned to take your reports as gospel .... and I live in Atlanta where we almost always get what you're predicting in Mississippi and even my extended family East of Nashville seems to get very similar weather
thanks and never hesitate to share what you see - no matter how far out

[Churchill]

Stark ... you shouldn't take chastisement from anyone because you're too good at what you do ... I (and most of the board) have learned to take your reports as gospel .... and I live in Atlanta where we almost always get what you're predicting in Mississippi and even my extended family East of Nashville seems to get very similar weather
thanks and never hesitate to share what you see - no matter how far out

I agree 100%

[Commercecomet24]

Keep bringing the info my man! Greatly appreciated!

[starkvegasdawg]

Stark ... you shouldn't take chastisement from anyone because you're too good at what you do ... I (and most of the board) have learned to take your reports as gospel .... and I live in Atlanta where we almost always get what you're predicting in Mississippi and even my extended family East of Nashville seems to get very similar weather
thanks and never hesitate to share what you see - no matter how far out

The reason you don't mention possible severe or snow events this far out is that they can, and usually do, change dramatically or fizzle out completely, and by mentioning it early it causes unease in people too early...especially when reason number one happens and it fizzles out.

[FISHDAWG]

The reason you don't mention possible severe or snow events this far out is that they can, and usually do, change dramatically or fizzle out completely, and by mentioning it early it causes unease in people too early...especially when reason number one happens and it fizzles out.

there's something to "just being aware of the possibility" whether it pans out or not - keep it coming

ETA - you get a pass on being wrong here ... and you're probably the only poster that has that privilege

[msbulldog]

I never pass up on your threads.

[starkvegasdawg]

I will say this. The CIPS analogs are picking up on these two potential events now. A CIPS analog sees what the forecast environment looks like and finds past severe weather events with similar setups as sort of an educated guess of what can be expected from this set up. The latest analogs are running pretty close to what I put in my original post. Not to gloss over Sunday, but my attention is pretty focused on next Wednesday.

[msstatelp1]

I like the way you did this post...basically "Hey y'all, be aware there could be some severe weather on these days but it's a long ways out and could change." That gets me looking as those times get closer.

[Commercecomet24]

You can't get better weather info than what we get on here from SVD, Ref, and others who post info on here. It's invaluable!

[dawgday166]

You can't get better weather info than what we get on here from SVD, Ref, and others who post info on here. It's invaluable!

They pretty good. I check in to see what they say.

[iPat09]

You can't get better weather info than what we get on here from SVD, Ref, and others who post info on here. It's invaluable!

Late Saturday night, my girlfriend was asking when it was going to start getting bad. This site was the first place I checked. My hat is off to all the weather guys on here!

[starkvegasdawg]

The threat for Sunday is now starting to take shape. Below is the area outlined by the SPC with a day 4 enhanced area. Damaging winds and hail look to be the main threat, but disturbingly, there are some possibilities a tornado threat may emerge after dark Sunday. Just have to see how it all plays out.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

[FISHDAWG]

time to make a run on toilet paper

[Commercecomet24]

Late Saturday night, my girlfriend was asking when it was going to start getting bad. This site was the first place I checked. My hat is off to all the weather guys on here!

Yep, we have some good ones!

[starkvegasdawg]

https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/small1.png?74ad563c84ed613ac9a6f1c9a6e9a6f0

Here is the latest graphic on the Sunday severe threat. Reading the forecast discussion from Jackson NWS they were mentioning models starting to show an increase in low level shear. If that happens, then the tornado threat will also increase. The NAM is already picking up on this and showing some high STP (significant tornado parameter) values for Sunday afternoon and night, but it is centering the highest values into south AL and the FL panhandle at this time. There is also still some uncertainty over storm mode. Last I saw the main mode was looking to be what we call in meteorological circles a big mess. Will have to see if these shear values changing make the environment more favorable for discrete cells.

Right now not looking for anything to the degree of what we saw this past Sunday. That one tornado has now been confirmed at least 2.25 miles wide making it the third largest on record.

[Commercecomet24]

https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/small1.png?74ad563c84ed613ac9a6f1c9a6e9a6f0

Here is the latest graphic on the Sunday severe threat. Reading the forecast discussion from Jackson NWS they were mentioning models starting to show an increase in low level shear. If that happens, then the tornado threat will also increase. The NAM is already picking up on this and showing some high STP (significant tornado parameter) values for Sunday afternoon and night, but it is centering the highest values into south AL and the FL panhandle at this time. There is also still some uncertainty over storm mode. Last I saw the main mode was looking to be what we call in meteorological circles a big mess. Will have to see if these shear values changing make the environment more favorable for discrete cells.

Right now not looking for anything to the degree of what we saw this past Sunday. That one tornado has now been confirmed at least 2.25 miles wide making it the third largest on record.


Thanks man! Keep us posted!

Have you seen the damage from that tornado in person yet? I've seen other tornado damage but I've never seen anything like this. The path is so wide it looks like someone cut a freaking road through here. Very distinct line, it's crazy. Obviously I haven't seen the amount you have but to me seeing it was unreal.

[RocketDawg]

The threat for Sunday is now starting to take shape. Below is the area outlined by the SPC with a day 4 enhanced area. Damaging winds and hail look to be the main threat, but disturbingly, there are some possibilities a tornado threat may emerge after dark Sunday. Just have to see how it all plays out.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

You mentioned next Wednesday in the original post. Is that still on the table?

[RocketDawg]

Thanks man! Keep us posted!

Have you seen the damage from that tornado in person yet? I've seen other tornado damage but I've never seen anything like this. The path is so wide it looks like someone cut a freaking road through here. Very distinct line, it's crazy. Obviously I haven't seen the amount you have but to me seeing it was unreal.


I haven't seen the damage from this past weekend in person, but I did see the result of the huge one that went through Hackleburg in 2011. The destruction was absolutely phenomenal.

The Easter one where you are was rated an EF-4 wasn't it? I really thought it would be a 5.

[Commercecomet24]

I haven't seen the damage from this past weekend in person, but I did see the result of the huge one that went through Hackleburg in 2011. The destruction was absolutely phenomenal.

The Easter one where you are was rated an EF-4 wasn't it? I really thought it would be a 5.

Yes it was EF-4. These things just wipe stuff off the face of the earth. It's just awful to see the destruction

[starkvegasdawg]

You mentioned next Wednesday in the original post. Is that still on the table?

It is still on the table. The last few model runs have had it an overnight event. If trends hold, it'll start getting some airplay in the next 2-3 days.

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks man! Keep us posted!

Have you seen the damage from that tornado in person yet? I've seen other tornado damage but I've never seen anything like this. The path is so wide it looks like someone cut a freaking road through here. Very distinct line, it's crazy. Obviously I haven't seen the amount you have but to me seeing it was unreal.

It?s like God had a weed eater. It?s hard to fathom.

[dawgday166]

Yes it was EF-4. These things just wipe stuff off the face of the earth. It's just awful to see the destruction

Not an expert like starkvegasdawg or Ref but seems to me their ain't much difference between 4 & 5. I guess 4's tend to leave a few wall studs standing or something.

[Commercecomet24]

It?s like God had a weed eater. It?s hard to fathom.

Yeah it made me physically ill to see it. Lot of friends stuff gone in the blink of an eye. But on the bright side there's a lot of faith and hope in these good folks and that's awesome to see!

[Commercecomet24]

Not an expert like starkvegasdawg or Ref but seems to me their ain't much difference between 4 & 5. I guess 4's tend to leave a few wall studs standing or something.

I'm like you I'm not sure what the difference is but if that's a 4 a don't want to see no 5!

[DownwardDawg]

I will say, I?m surprised at the walls that are still standing. Roofs , cars, trees, etc, all gone but a bunch of walls remain. Maybe you could survive in the interior rooms. EF-5,.....I don?t know.

[dawgday166]

I will say, I?m surprised at the walls that are still standing. Roofs , cars, trees, etc, all gone but a bunch of walls remain. Maybe you could survive in the interior rooms. EF-5,.....I don?t know.

Maybe that's the difference although I haven't seen much left from EF-4 either but with a 5 ... if you're in the house you're ****ed IMO. Nothing but slab left after.

[Commercecomet24]

I will say, I?m surprised at the walls that are still standing. Roofs , cars, trees, etc, all gone but a bunch of walls remain. Maybe you could survive in the interior rooms. EF-5,.....I don?t know.

I am amazed that there weren't more serious injuries and deaths. I mean one death is to many but I do believe it could've been far worse. I give credit to the forecasters and those getting us early warnings for saving more people

[starkvegasdawg]

Maybe that's the difference although I haven't seen much left from EF-4 either but with a 5 ... if you're in the house you're ****ed IMO. Nothing but slab left after.

Here's something to keep you up at night. If you were to compare the new scale to the old...Where today's EF-5 starts would just be an F3 on the old scale. But to the point, an EF-5 starts at 200mph. At those winds the only thing above ground that survives are safe rooms and similar. During the 2011 outbreak the Neshoba EF-5 dug a trench in the ground 2' deep. You well described an EF-4 as God having a weedeater. With a 5 He has has road grader. I've told my wife that while I'm out chasing if I think I see one like that approaching our house I'm going to text her the same of a city. She is to immediately drop everything, load the kids and dog up, and head that direction as it's an evac order because I know they won't survive a direct hit anywhere in the house.

[dawgday166]

Here's something to keep you up at night. If you were to compare the new scale to the old...Where today's EF-5 starts would just be an F3 on the old scale. But to the point, an EF-5 starts at 200mph. At those winds the only thing above ground that survives are safe rooms and similar. During the 2011 outbreak the Neshoba EF-5 dug a trench in the ground 2' deep. You well described an EF-4 as God having a weedeater. With a 5 He has has road grader. I've told my wife that while I'm out chasing if I think I see one like that approaching our house I'm going to text her the same of a city. She is to immediately drop everything, load the kids and dog up, and head that direction as it's an evac order because I know they won't survive a direct hit anywhere in the house.

Didn't know all of that but ... Agree on all that. Right now my plan is to load up and get out of the way too. Thinking about breaking down and having an in-ground shelter installed. I really have no desire to ride out one that is fixing to directly hit my house while in the house.

[HaggardDawg]

In regards to an EF4 or EF5, would a Torshel or similar steel above ground shelter be adequate in a tornado that size? I'm about to buy one. It says they're rated and tested at Texas Tech for EF5 force. However, it appears they're just shooting 2x4s at 200mph at the structure. With them being anchored in the slab, would they withstand the blunt force of the winds? I know they'll survive a car or tree falling on them.

[Commercecomet24]

Here's something to keep you up at night. If you were to compare the new scale to the old...Where today's EF-5 starts would just be an F3 on the old scale. But to the point, an EF-5 starts at 200mph. At those winds the only thing above ground that survives are safe rooms and similar. During the 2011 outbreak the Neshoba EF-5 dug a trench in the ground 2' deep. You well described an EF-4 as God having a weedeater. With a 5 He has has road grader. I've told my wife that while I'm out chasing if I think I see one like that approaching our house I'm going to text her the same of a city. She is to immediately drop everything, load the kids and dog up, and head that direction as it's an evac order because I know they won't survive a direct hit anywhere in the house.

Always appreciate your info man! Thank you!

[starkvegasdawg]

In regards to an EF4 or EF5, would a Torshel or similar steel above ground shelter be adequate in a tornado that size? I'm about to buy one. It says they're rated and tested at Texas Tech for EF5 force. However, it appears they're just shooting 2x4s at 200mph at the structure. With them being anchored in the slab, would they withstand the blunt force of the winds? I know they'll survive a car or tree falling on them.

They're supposed to. I would be ok taking my chances in one. Underground is always safest, but not always practical. Due to water table at my house I doubt I could have an underground.

[parabrave]

They have lowered the severe threat to the coast, but we sure could use the rain/ Severe drought south of 10.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest info from Jackson NWS is not painting a pretty picture for Sunday. Straight line winds to 70mph, tennis ball size hail, and tornadoes...some possibly strong are now starting to look possible. The next SPC update will be at 1:00am. Models are starting to show multiple rounds of severe storms possible. An early morning round looks to affect north MS in the morning hours and then move out. Main threats for it look to be hail. Late Sunday morning another round looks to develop in south MS and that looks to be the one that will have the primary tornado threat. How far north that threat advances will be determined by how far north the warm front makes it. Instability to the south of it will be very high and with low level shear increasing every model run the results could be bad news. I'm not calling for another 2 1/4 mile wide monster again, but it's possible we see some decent storms out of this. I'll post the latest from the SPC tonight and then see what the latest model runs show in the morning. But if you have interests in south of I-20 I'd stay weather aware Sunday...particularly into the afternoon and evening.

[Commercecomet24]

Latest info from Jackson NWS is not painting a pretty picture for Sunday. Straight line winds to 70mph, tennis ball size hail, and tornadoes...some possibly strong are now starting to look possible. The next SPC update will be at 1:00am. Models are starting to show multiple rounds of severe storms possible. An early morning round looks to affect north MS in the morning hours and then move out. Main threats for it look to be hail. Late Sunday morning another round looks to develop in south MS and that looks to be the one that will have the primary tornado threat. How far north that threat advances will be determined by how far north the warm front makes it. Instability to the south of it will be very high and with low level shear increasing every model run the results could be bad news. I'm not calling for another 2 1/4 mile wide monster again, but it's possible we see some decent storms out of this. I'll post the latest from the SPC tonight and then see what the latest model runs show in the morning. But if you have interests in south of I-20 I'd stay weather aware Sunday...particularly into the afternoon and evening.

Not news I wanted to hear but I appreciate the info so we can keep a heads up.

[RocketDawg]

Here's something to keep you up at night. If you were to compare the new scale to the old...Where today's EF-5 starts would just be an F3 on the old scale. But to the point, an EF-5 starts at 200mph. At those winds the only thing above ground that survives are safe rooms and similar. During the 2011 outbreak the Neshoba EF-5 dug a trench in the ground 2' deep. You well described an EF-4 as God having a weedeater. With a 5 He has has road grader. I've told my wife that while I'm out chasing if I think I see one like that approaching our house I'm going to text her the same of a city. She is to immediately drop everything, load the kids and dog up, and head that direction as it's an evac order because I know they won't survive a direct hit anywhere in the house.

But isn't that a matter of the old F scale overestimating the speed of the winds (assuming the newer EF scales are correct)? What was once thought to be 260 mph (I believe that was the beginning of the older F-5 scale) was in actuality 200 mph.

[starkvegasdawg]

But isn't that a matter of the old F scale overestimating the speed of the winds (assuming the newer EF scales are correct)? What was once thought to be 260 mph (I believe that was the beginning of the older F-5 scale) was in actuality 200 mph.

They did change how they rated them, but I'll be honest I'm not very familiar with what all changed.

[Churchill]

Mighty quiet here this AM. I'm taking that as a good thing.

[Red Sox Dawg]

Hey Starkvegasdawg, when are you going to have a weather update for Sunday in South Mississippi? Thanks in advance.

[Indndawg]

pulled up concrete slabs, destroyed asphalt, and humans were found in trees with part/most of their skin ripped off. This came from 1 responder friends on the scene, said that they still have nightmares to this day from that day.

[starkvegasdawg]

SPC has maintained an enhanced risk for tomorrow but extended it northward to the 82 corridor. This includes a 10% significant tornado risk, too. The NAM3K the last few runs has shown very strong updraft helicity tracks just south of the 82 corridor. My thinking is that it is keying on storms developing just south of the warm front. The SPC will update again around 12:30. It's not out of the realm of possibility that a moderate risk may be issued for parts of south AL for tornadoes as the tornado threat may increase there during the overnight hours.

[DownwardDawg]

Am I a little safer this time Stark??
Also, how is Wednesday shaping up?

[starkvegasdawg]

Am I a little safer this time Stark??
Also, how is Wednesday shaping up?

You'll have to remind me where you call home, but basically anywhere south of 82 I'd keep an eye out tomorrow.

Wednesday maybe not looking as impressive right now. Perhaps more of a heavy rain event but remains to be seen.

Also, don't go to sleep on next weekend. It must be late April in MS.

[RocketDawg]

pulled up concrete slabs, destroyed asphalt, and humans were found in trees with part/most of their skin ripped off. This came from 1 responder friends on the scene, said that they still have nightmares to this day from that day.

According to articles I just googled, the Smithville tornado had max winds of 205 and the Hackleburg storm was 210. I believe the one this past weekend was at 195 - not a lot of difference in wind speed, but remember that wind force quadruples when the speed doubles (it's a function of wind speed squared). I'm not sure how they discriminate between 195 and 200 mph damage when doing their estimates.

The huge tornado in Moore, Oklahoma in (I think) 1999 was measured by the Doppler on Wheels at 301 +/- 20 mph. Can you imagine the destructive force of that storm, especially knowing what last Sunday was like, as well as 2011? Scary.

[RocketDawg]

You'll have to remind me where you call home, but basically anywhere south of 82 I'd keep an eye out tomorrow.

Wednesday maybe not looking as impressive right now. Perhaps more of a heavy rain event but remains to be seen.

Also, don't go to sleep on next weekend. It must be late April in MS.

Counting last night, I believe this is the 3rd major cold front to come through this April with near freezing temps at night. April has been very active and it's only the 18th.

[Negative Waves]

According to articles I just googled, the Smithville tornado had max winds of 205 and the Hackleburg storm was 210. I believe the one this past weekend was at 195 - not a lot of difference in wind speed, but remember that wind force quadruples when the speed doubles (it's a function of wind speed squared). I'm not sure how they discriminate between 195 and 200 mph damage when doing their estimates.

The huge tornado in Moore, Oklahoma in (I think) 1999 was measured by the Doppler on Wheels at 301 +/- 20 mph. Can you imagine the destructive force of that storm, especially knowing what last Sunday was like, as well as 2011? Scary.

Another one to look up is the Jarrell Texas tornado of 1997. It?s considered by some to be the worst damage ever from a tornado. It ripped up every piece of vegetation and had some of the most intense ground scouring ever seen. First responders could not discern victims? bodies from animals also killed in the tornado.

[DownwardDawg]

You'll have to remind me where you call home, but basically anywhere south of 82 I'd keep an eye out tomorrow.

Wednesday maybe not looking as impressive right now. Perhaps more of a heavy rain event but remains to be seen.

Also, don't go to sleep on next weekend. It must be late April in MS.

Thanks man. Home is 5 miles west of Collins on 84. Williamsburg/Lone Star area.

[Cooterpoot]

pulled up concrete slabs, destroyed asphalt, and humans were found in trees with part/most of their skin ripped off. This came from 1 responder friends on the scene, said that they still have nightmares to this day from that day.

Same happened in Bassfield and Collins area last week.

[RocketDawg]

Another one to look up is the Jarrell Texas tornado of 1997. It?s considered by some to be the worst damage ever from a tornado. It ripped up every piece of vegetation and had some of the most intense ground scouring ever seen. First responders could not discern victims? bodies from animals also killed in the tornado.

Good one. Looks like it was 261 mph, but was fairly small for a catastrophic tornado at only 3/4 mile in width. It, typical of very strong tornadoes, was multi-vortex which accounts for the seemingly miraculous skipped areas that we see some time.

The Greensburg, Kansas storm was at 205 mph and wiped virtually the entire town clean.

Differences in Jarrell and Greensburg and the more recent ones (like last weekend) might be a result of the difference in F and EF wind speed estimation criteria. If Jarrell happend today, it might come in lower, maybe 200 mph - just don't know. But the Moore, OK tornado was actually measured by Doppler, not estimated.

[starkvegasdawg]

Central and south MS (except the panhandle) have now been upgraded to a moderate risk for the threat of strong tornadoes tomorrow. Below is from the latest SPC:

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT DOMINANT STORM MODE, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60+ KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. A 40-50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS AND VICINITY BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS IN A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS/AL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT, MAY ALSO OCCUR. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING, A MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THIS AREA.

[Churchill]

At this stage what (if any) are the differences in last week and this week ? The areas look very similar.

[starkvegasdawg]

At this stage what (if any) are the differences in last week and this week ? The areas look very similar.

It is similar, but I don't think we have the dynamics are quite as strong. We will have more instability, though. CAPE values are forecast to be up to 4,000kj. Last week we had about a 100kt low level jet blasting through. Last I saw tomorrow it should be around 60-70kts. Still plenty enough to produce some strong tornadoes, but not a 2.25 mile wide high end EF-4 wedge.

[Churchill]

Thank you...I'm gonna be watch'n this sucker like it could produce an EF-10...they all scare me the same.

[Red Sox Dawg]

Thanks for the updates. Not looking forward to more bad weather tomorrow but will hunker down and ride it out here in Southeast Mississippi.

[RocketDawg]

It is similar, but I don't think we have the dynamics are quite as strong. We will have more instability, though. CAPE values are forecast to be up to 4,000kj. Last week we had about a 100kt low level jet blasting through. Last I saw tomorrow it should be around 60-70kts. Still plenty enough to produce some strong tornadoes, but not a 2.25 mile wide high end EF-4 wedge.

The wording in the upgrade to Moderate that you posted above doesn't sound quite as ominous as it did last week, but as I recall, there wasn't a lot of strong wording before the Tennessee tornadoes a month or so ago. So anything could happen.

Don't we have another model run or two before morning?

[starkvegasdawg]

The wording in the upgrade to Moderate that you posted above doesn't sound quite as ominous as it did last week, but as I recall, there wasn't a lot of strong wording before the Tennessee tornadoes a month or so ago. So anything could happen.

Don't we have another model run or two before morning?

Have about three more runs come in between now and then. 1:00pm, 7:00pm, 1:00am.

[RocketDawg]

Have about three more runs come in between now and then. 1:00pm, 7:00pm, 1:00am.

Keep us updated. :) Are you going south to chase tomorrow?

[starkvegasdawg]

Keep us updated. :) Are you going south to chase tomorrow?

Right now the plan is to leave vegas around 9:00 and heads towards Jackson and monitor from there and maneuver.

[Churchill]

LOL Always great to hear storm chasers are staging in your area....not

[RocketDawg]

Right now the plan is to leave vegas around 9:00 and heads towards Jackson and monitor from there and maneuver.

Sounds like a good plan. What's the timing for severe weather looking like for tomorrow in Mississippi? Mid-afternoon is not good with the heat of the day.

[parabrave]

Right now the plan is to leave vegas around 9:00 and heads towards Jackson and monitor from there and maneuver.

According to the latest Forecast Discussion you might want to larger around Mccomb and stay on 98/

[DownwardDawg]

Stay away from 84.

[starkvegasdawg]

Storm dropping baseballs just passed Raleigh heading northeast.

Heard a rumor SPC is contemplating a high risk. Very unsubstantiated rumor and probably just a guy trolling twitter but we'll find out in 45 minutes.

[starkvegasdawg]

Supposedly the NWS office In Birmingham talked the SPC out of a high risk. That said, they are still confident in an outbreak. Below is from their latest update:

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A
REGIONAL CLUSTER OF TORNADOES IS FORECAST FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI AND HATTIESBURG, MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA.

[DJ55]

thanks for the up date. i am from carson and the ef 3 was just half mile from us. alot of people around here our very worried about tomorrow. A lot of people living in tents and campers down here

[starkvegasdawg]

thanks for the up date. i am from carson and the ef 3 was just half mile from us. alot of people around here our very worried about tomorrow. A lot of people living in tents and campers down here

Hopefully the same areas won't be hit again. Also hope those in tents and such have some way to get warning information.

[WCUdawg88]

Where in Carson are you located. We live off McPhail Rd. We are part of the Stafford clan lol
thanks for the up date. i am from carson and the ef 3 was just half mile from us. alot of people around here our very worried about tomorrow. A lot of people living in tents and campers down here

[parabrave]

Hey SVD you guys monitoring that line moving through central LA into the Natchez area. Looks like a couple of hours before it starts impacting the Miss Area.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey SVD you guys monitoring that line moving through central LA into the Natchez area. Looks like a couple of hours before it starts impacting the Miss Area.

We're in Magee now. Right now those storms look more of a hail threat but that will be changing quickly. I'm thinking our main tornado threat will matierialize mid afternoon.

[DownwardDawg]

We're in Magee now. Right now those storms look more of a hail threat but that will be changing quickly. I'm thinking our main tornado threat will matierialize mid afternoon.

Man, I hope these stay north of 84 this time. You are awful close to me.

[Commercecomet24]

Man, I hope these stay north of 84 this time. You are awful close to me.

Me too! Stay safe over there!

[DownwardDawg]

Me too! Stay safe over there!

You too bro!

[DownwardDawg]

Any updates???

[notsofarawaydawg]

Tornado warning NW of Quitman

[parabrave]

Hey DDawg hate to tell you this but things could be getting a little rough for the 98-84 corridor in the next hour. If you got radae look around woodville

[Sienfield]

Where in Carson are you located. We live off McPhail Rd. We are part of the Stafford clan lol

I know who you are. Tell B & A to stay safe.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Tornado warning just west and a little south of McComb.

[GrooGruxDawg]

Tornado warning just west and a little south of McComb.

Deleted. I was looking at velocity. Pretty rough part of the storm though for sure.

[DownwardDawg]

This sux again!!!

[Bodawg]

Large and extremely dangerous tornado on the ground headed towards Purvis MS. Debris signature upwards 21,000.

[parabrave]

That has been on the ground since it passed south of woodville

[Cooterpoot]

Nader on the ground near Purvis/S. Hburg

[parabrave]

Nader on the ground near Purvis/S. Hburg

Its on a B line to Bobby Chain Airport

[parabrave]

Aw crap that thing is on a bline for Roses.

[Commercecomet24]

Aw crap that thing is on a bline for Roses.

Man you know Roses?

[parabrave]

Man you know Roses?

Since 1983

[parabrave]

Dam it went down Hardy street

[Commercecomet24]

Since 1983

Good stuff man!

[parabrave]

Dam it went down Hardy street

Sorry that was a TStorm Cell. WDAM has it right north of Dixie headed for Bobby Chain and 49/98

[Cooterpoot]

Lots of hail in Hburg

[RocketDawg]

Pretty sure it went just north of Purvis. May have gone right over the 59/98 interchange.

[Cooterpoot]

Purvis area has damage.

[parabrave]

Pretty sure it went just north of Purvis. May have gone right over the 59/98 interchange.

Went right over traversing down 98 to Bobby Chain now into perry county.

[Cooterpoot]

Damage in Dixie area. People trapped in homes. Hburg flooded.

[parabrave]

Hey cooter do you know any families there? And did Roses quickstop survive?

[PMDawg]

Where's the one near McNeil?

[parabrave]

Where's the one near McNeil?

Its expired

[parabrave]

Finally about to get some rain in Biloxi.

[PMDawg]

Its expired

Thought they just moved it east. I'll be surprised if something didn't touch down.

[TimberBeast]

Finally about to get some rain in Biloxi.

Yeah it looks like we?re about to get plenty down here.