101 of 130 AD's are ready to expand CFP playoff...

[HoopsDawg]

and most want to go all the way to 16 teams. Yes!!! We need this at MSU. Now if they will just cut scholarships to 75, we might have a chance.

Sorry, 72% want 8 teams, 12% stay at 4, 11% 16, and 5% want 6.

[ShotgunDawg]

and most want to go all the way to 16 teams. Yes!!! We need this at MSU. Now if they will just cut scholarships to 75, we might have a chance.

Agree. 16 teams would be YUGE for MSU & likely make the Egg Bowl have national significance potentially 4 or 5 out of every 10 years.

Cutting the scholarships + a 16 team playoff would be crazy awesome for MSU.

Many people say that by going to 16 teams, there will be less big games in college football, but that's small minded IMO.

Will the Iron Bowl & Ohio State/Michigan lessen in importance many years? Yes

However, the Egg Bowl, Bedlam, Florida/FSU, South Carolina/Clemson, the Holy War, USC/UCLA, The Big Game, South Carolina/Clemson, UGA/GT, etc will all gain more national prominence. It's great for the game & will make college football infinitely more intense in November

[Todd4State]

I think eight as an appropriate number. I'm not ready for 9-3 NCState to win a National Title.

[ShotgunDawg]

I think eight as an appropriate number. I'm not ready for 9-3 NCState to win a National Title.

They likely won't but 9-3 NC State would likely have to win at #1 Alabama to move the 2nd round.

I don't see any issue with that

6 loss NFL teams can easily win the Super Bowl & no one complains about that

[HoopsDawg]

I think eight as an appropriate number. I'm not ready for 9-3 NCState to win a National Title.

If they won 4 straight against top 16 teams, they would deserve it.

Bowl games are dead. They are now a fraud and money makers for bowl execs.

[AROB44]

16 seems to work ok in Div II, III and whatever 1A is now callled.

[DownwardDawg]

I think eight as an appropriate number. I'm not ready for 9-3 NCState to win a National Title.

I’ve always wanted it to be 8 teams.

[Todd4State]

If they won 4 straight against top 16 teams, they would deserve it.

Bowl games are dead. They are now a fraud and money makers for bowl execs.

ESPN owns a lot of those bowls. They aren't going anywhere.

[Homedawg]

and most want to go all the way to 16 teams. Yes!!! We need this at MSU. Now if they will just cut scholarships to 75, we might have a chance.

Sorry, 72% want 8 teams, 12% stay at 4, 11% 16, and 5% want 6.

16 is absurd. And before you start jumping up and down the only way the 8 gets agreed to is every champ of the big 5 gets in no matter how shitty they are. Plus throw Nd in w a certain ranking and leaves 2 at large at best. I'd rather go top 4.

[Ari Gold]

16 is absurd. And before you start jumping up and down the only way the 8 gets agreed to is every champ of the big 5 gets in no matter how shitty they are. Plus throw Nd in w a certain ranking and leaves 2 at large at best. I'd rather go top 4.

ND not being in the ACC in football yet they are in basketball is the most ND football thing ever,.
If they go 8 every AD should MAKE ND join ACC full time.
Agree with 16 too many
8 is plenty
P5 champs , 3 at large

[msstate7]

Pac12 champs
Big 10 champs
Acc champs
Big 12 champs
Sec East champs
Sec west champs
Sec at large
Best of G5

[HoopsDawg]

ND not being in the ACC in football yet they are in basketball is the most ND football thing ever,.
If they go 8 every AD should MAKE ND join ACC full time.
Agree with 16 too many
8 is plenty
P5 champs , 3 at large

Why is 16 too many? The NFL has 14 out of 32 teams with balanced schedules. 16 out of 130 with huge schedule imbalances seems fine.

[Quaoarsking]

I think eight as an appropriate number. I'm not ready for 9-3 NCState to win a National Title.

It would be a pretty weird year for a 9-3 NC State team to get into a 16-team playoff, assuming each conference gets an autobid. They would need to be ranked in the top 12 or so, and 9-3 teams, especially with an ACC resume, just aren't usually ranked that high.

But even if they did in an oddball year, it would be incredibly unlikely for them to pull off 4 straight wins over top 5 teams, some of which were on the road.

[MarcoRubio]

6 teams is all we need. College football is special because the whole season is a playoff. Every game counts. A lot of years, you lose one you are out. You lose 2 and 99% of the time your done.

6 teams would expand the current format, but leave the regular seasons importance intact.

#1 and #2 get a first round bye

Round 1:
3 plays 6
4 plays 5

Round 2:
1 plays 4/5 winner
2 plays 3/6 winner
Could allow 1 seed to choose opponent to further the importance of regular season.

Round 3 is NC

Those first round byes would be worth playing for. No NFL like sitting of starters the last few games. ie, Bama is undefeated, has Aub coming up so sits starters against State to save them. Hate that about the NFL. Almost like an exhibition game.

[TUSK]

Better than that... an 8-4 Bammer team squeaks with #14 seed....

Heck, I?m hanging another banner just thinking about CFP Expansion....

[ShotgunDawg]

Pac12 champs
Big 10 champs
Acc champs
Big 12 champs
Sec East champs
Sec west champs
Sec at large
Best of G5

No on the G5. They should have to earn it like everyone else

If a G5 is ranked in top 8, then yes but they don't get a freebee

[ShotgunDawg]

6 teams is all we need. College football is special because the whole season is a playoff.

Which is dumb. It adds nothing to the sport.

[HoopsDawg]

No on the G5. They should have to earn it like everyone else

If a G5 is ranked in top 8, then yes but they don't get a freebee

Agree 100%. Can't have a G5 in if it's 8 unless they are ranked top 8. Memphis would have stolen a spot this year. Can't happen.

[bulldawg28]

The more the merrier. There may be blowouts but it increases the likelihood of upsets and opens the door for teams like MSU that will never make it otherwise. Imo it would bring out the best in players knowing they can honestly compete for a national title
without going undefeated. People are tired of watching the same type of teams play annually. Give people something new. Make room for parity.

[ShotgunDawg]

The more the merrier. There may be blowouts but it increases the likelihood of upsets and opens the door for teams like MSU that will never make it otherwise. Imo it would bring out the best in players knowing they can honestly compete for a national title
without going undefeated. People are tired of watching the same type of teams play annually. Give people something new. Make room for parity.

This this this

Also gives other programs the opportunity to build tradition

[TALL DAWG]

6 teams is all we need. College football is special because the whole season is a playoff. Every game counts. A lot of years, you lose one you are out. You lose 2 and 99% of the time your done.

6 teams would expand the current format, but leave the regular seasons importance intact.

#1 and #2 get a first round bye

Round 1:
3 plays 6
4 plays 5

Round 2:
1 plays 4/5 winner
2 plays 3/6 winner
Could allow 1 seed to choose opponent to further the importance of regular season.

Round 3 is NC

Those first round byes would be worth playing for. No NFL like sitting of starters the last few games. ie, Bama is undefeated, has Aub coming up so sits starters against State to save them. Hate that about the NFL. Almost like an exhibition game.

You are 100% correct. I have always thought the exact same schedule as u listed was spot on.

[coachnorm]

Doesn't the current format run thru 2026? Will ESPN pony up the money to support this type of product, remember there has to be an investment return on up front money? When you talk about this kind of expansion, you are now encroaching on the NFL. The NFL has stayed out of Saturday Football in respect to College ball, maybe that respect might just be forgotten if college ball fails to understand its place in the food chain? The NFL will not stay unresponsive if college ball encroaches on it's money share. What happens if ESPN has to choose between the NFL or College Football? Based on this , believe that the ADs might not command the money market?

[The Federalist Engineer]

Pac12 champs
Big 10 champs
Acc champs
Big 12 champs
Sec East champs
Sec west champs
Sec at large
Best of G5

This post would cause a crazy Oklahoma fan to attack you in a dark parking lot.

I would say:

5 Guaranteed slots for Champions (SEC, PAC, ACC, BiG10, and BIG12)
3 At Large (will usually be SEC-2, BiG 10-2, and One Non-P5 Pity Case)

[Tbonewannabe]

I think 16 is the right number unless you want to give bye weeks. You could say top 4 get byes and then let next 8 play a round. Go straight up top 4 regardless of conference get byes. Then have 8 teams which would include at least champ from each P5 conference and then maybe top G5 if they make it into the top 12-16, however it was decided. Use rankings and bowl games to decide where they play. Maybe leave 4 team playoff the same but the first round is played at home of higher seed.

That only adds one game maybe around Dec 20th. It does take the higher 4 teams out of bowl games unless the go to bowls with a week or so turnaround.

[ShotgunDawg]

I think 16 is the right number unless you want to give bye weeks. You could say top 4 get byes and then let next 8 play a round. Go straight up top 4 regardless of conference get byes. Then have 8 teams which would include at least champ from each P5 conference and then maybe top G5 if they make it into the top 12-16, however it was decided. Use rankings and bowl games to decide where they play. Maybe leave 4 team playoff the same but the first round is played at home of higher seed.

That only adds one game maybe around Dec 20th. It does take the higher 4 teams out of bowl games unless the go to bowls with a week or so turnaround.

I think 16 would be fantastic.

Would grow the sport of college football immeasurably due to there just being far far more important games in November.

It would increase late season attendance as the games would actually mean something.

When is the last time the Egg Bowl or MSU vs Arkansas actually had national implications? With a 16 team playoff, there is a legitimate chance that every few years both of those games had stakes.

I realize there are some negatives to a 16 team playoff, but it's also important to realize that there isn't a perfect system. However, a system that grows the game, brings about more big games, increases attendance, & makes more money is certainly better than one that excludes 90% of the teams in the country & makes November games more almost all teams virtually meaningless.

[HoopsDawg]

I can't understand a State fan not wanting a 16 team playoff. It would give us a chance once or twice every 10 years.

[ShotgunDawg]

I can't understand a State fan not wanting a 16 team playoff. It would give us a chance once or twice every 10 years.

Completely agree.

Maybe even closer to 3 times every 6 years.

[FISHDAWG]

Completely agree.

Maybe even closer to 3 times every 6 years.

I think the only way you see a 16 team play-off is if they shorten the regular season by about two games .... and I would be ok with that

[BB30]

I think 16 would be fantastic.

Would grow the sport of college football immeasurably due to there just being far far more important games in November.

It would increase late season attendance as the games would actually mean something.

When is the last time the Egg Bowl or MSU vs Arkansas actually had national implications? With a 16 team playoff, there is a legitimate chance that every few years both of those games had stakes.

I realize there are some negatives to a 16 team playoff, but it's also important to realize that there isn't a perfect system. However, a system that grows the game, brings about more big games, increases attendance, & makes more money is certainly better than one that excludes 90% of the teams in the country & makes November games more almost all teams virtually meaningless.

2014 egg bowl had some pretty big implications as well as 15

[Todd4State]

2014 egg bowl had some pretty big implications as well as 15

Good thing Dan was completely focused and prepared for both of those.**

[Liverpooldawg]

It won't matter this year. We ain't playing college football before 2021, if then.

[Todd4State]

I think a 16 or 8 team playoff would work schedule wise.

For 16 teams they could play one week after Army/Navy which would give teams a couple of weeks off after the Championship Games. Then you could do the final 8 teams Christmas week. Then the final 4 NYD week. And then the Championship Game would fall basically the same time.

Some people say that "Well, FCS does a playoff with no problem" but there are some issues with a FBS playoff. The FCS plays most of their playoff games at a homefield of one of the teams and I think the final is the only neutral site. That's potentially a lot of travel and logistics issues. And as a fan that's going to get REALLY expensive. I was looking at going to the FBS Championship Game in NOLA and the cheapest ticket was like 700 dollars on third party ticket services. For me if MSU won it would be about like me paying for season tickets 2-3 times that year. Of course they could just play the games on campuses and it would be cheaper. And they may very well decide to do that- I don't know.

Travel on that kind of short notice could be crazy too for everyone involved. Like MSU- let's say we go 17-0 and run the table for arguments sake. First we go to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. Then let's say we go to NOLA for the Sugar Bowl for the first round. Then Pasadena for the second round. Then maybe Dallas for the third round before finally going back to NOLA. Right now my credit card is crying.

[Todd4State]

What I think I would like to see personally- and they'll never do it- is total realignment with a Power 6 conferences. So you would have five 12 team conferences and then the PAC-12 would expand to 14 and then you have the four "traditional independents"- Notre Dame and then the three service academies. (78 teams total if my math is correct) Kick A&M and Mizzou out of the SEC and go back to the way it was. Make the league more regional than they are now- West Virginia in the Big 12 and Mizzou in the SEC? Seriously?

Then have.....drumroll please.... a 16 game regular season schedule. Start the season at the beginning of August. Play the other 11 SEC teams, four OOC games against any FBS team, and one FCS game. Other leagues have a similar set-up except for the PAC 12 which would be 13 conference games and 3 OOC games against one of which can be a FCS team.

Do away with the conference championship games. (I know won't happen)

Then do a 16 team playoff for the 16 most deserving teams. Keep the bowls for the rest of the teams that qualify. Non power six teams could qualify if they are worthy but they're going to have to be almost undefeated to get in.

[Hot Rock]

four is just right, we have never had anyone win it that didn't deserve winning it since it went to four teams and there has never been a team left out that deserved a shot since going to 4. They got it right just like it is. Leave it alone.

[ShotgunDawg]

four is just right, we have never had anyone win it that didn't deserve winning it since it went to four teams and there has never been a team left out that deserved a shot since going to 4. They got it right just like it is. Leave it alone.

It's not about who wins it. It's about giving more teams something to play for.

I think you're missing the point of 16 teams

I also think with 16 teams, there's some chance that recruiting levels out a hair over time due to players knowing they still have a chance at more schools

[TUSK]

This was solved in '98.... on or about the time the BCS came 'round....

You cats are either too young to remember the solution, or didn't hear 'bout it...

(teaser: it's a ridiculous 16 team dealio)

[ShotgunDawg]

2014 egg bowl had some pretty big implications as well as 15

Did it?

In both cases two of the best teams in the country were only playing for a higher status bowl game. Not for something that could alter who won the natty.

How is that? How is it that two of the best teams in America were only playing for a stupid bowl game instead of playing for a national seed that could propel them to a championship?

[ShotgunDawg]

It won't matter this year. We ain't playing college football before 2021, if then.

LOL. You forgot the *

[chef dixon]

I don't understand how any MSU fan would be against 16. You know your ass would be sitting down in front of the TV watching every single game of a 16 team playoff. Pretty much every game would have been the likely choice for College Gameday if it had happened during the regular season.

[Quaoarsking]

four is just right, we have never had anyone win it that didn't deserve winning it since it went to four teams and there has never been a team left out that deserved a shot since going to 4. They got it right just like it is. Leave it alone.

TCU 2014, Baylor 2014, Wisconsin 2017, and Ohio State 2018 all had only 1 loss at the end of the year and were left out.

And looking back to 2014, there's no one who would have made the an 8-team playoff who wouldn't have been considered a deserving winner had they won it all.

For example, no one was clamoring for Baylor (11-2 after a 3-point loss to Oklahoma and an OT loss to them again) to get in, but if they had rattled off wins over Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU in an 8-team format, no one would be begrudging them their championship.


The above argument is generally true in a 16-team format as well. If you assume that every conference gets an autobid (so 6 at larges) and no more conference championship games, you might get might get a few teams that don't really seem national championship caliber, but they would almost definitely lose in the first round or maybe second round anyway. They would still serve a good purpose in making the eventual winner prove they belong:

Like in 2018, 9-3 Florida probably gets in because there's no one else to put in their place, but they still provide a good matchup. Depending on how the seeds shake out, their presence means 10-2 Michigan or undefeated UCF has to win against Florida before moving on to the Elite Eight. It's incredibly unlikely that Florida would have won 4 games, the early ones on the road, to win the national title, but they would have helped winnow down the final 8/4 to the absolute best. If UCF beats Florida in the first game, people are less begrudging about them having a spot in the final 8. If they lose, we get better matchups in the final 8.

[ShotgunDawg]

I don't understand how any MSU fan would be against 16. You know your ass would be sitting down in front of the TV watching every single game of a 16 team playoff. Pretty much every game would have been the likely choice for College Gameday if it had happened during the regular season.

This

[Quaoarsking]

These are the CFP rankings from the week before conference championship games this past year. I think it's a safe bet that CCGs go away under a 16-team playoff format.

1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. LSU (12-0)
3. Clemson (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Utah (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
7. Baylor (11-1)
8. Wisconsin (10-2)
9. Florida (10-2)
10. Penn State (10-2)
11. Auburn (9-3)
12. Alabama (10-2)
13. Oregon (10-2)
14. Michigan (9-3)
15. Notre Dame (10-2)
16. Iowa (9-3)

I also assume that there is going to be an autobid for each conference, so we only need to select 11 of these. (Memphis, Boise State, and Appalachian State were all 11-1 at this point.)

I think the top 9 are all easily in. I suspect Alabama (despite the Iron Bowl loss) and Oregon at probably the last 2. I would strongly support using some kind of objective, mathematically valid formula over a biased committee, but selection committees are how every other sport at every level does it, so that's probably what we get.

Is anyone here really telling me you wouldn't watch the hell of out this- I did my best to seed like I think the Committee would have, knowing that it's a 16-team format:


16. Miami OH (7-5) @ 1. Ohio State (12-0)
9. Florida (10-2) @ 8. Alabama (10-2)

12. Memphis (11-1) @ 5. Utah (11-1)
13. Boise State (11-1) @ 4. Georgia (11-1)

14. Appalachian State (11-1) @ 3. Clemson (12-0)
11. Oregon (10-2) @ 6. Oklahoma (11-1)

10. Wisconsin (10-2) @ 7. Baylor (11-1)
15. Florida Atlantic (9-3) @ 2. LSU (12-0)

Seven of the eight first round games are interesting.
Florida @ Alabama with a matchup against Ohio State on the line!
Memphis @ Utah, Georgia @ Boise State: You think the G5 team is sure to lose, but are they? Memphis has had a knack for beating P5 teams lately, and we all remember what happened the last time Boise State played Georgia.
Appalachian State @ Clemson seems like a snoozer, but Appalachian State already beat South Carolina and North Carolina (a team 1 point away from beating Clemson) earlier this year.
Oregon @ Oklahoma, Wisconsin @ Baylor: two exciting matchups between great teams.
Obviously LSU beats FAU and it's probably not close, but the Kiffin storyline is there.
Yeah, Miami/Ohio State is gonig to be a snoozer. Usually the best MAC team is better than 7-5, but that's not how it worked out in 2019. This is actually going to be a rematch of a game that Ohio State won in a blowout in the regular season. However, it is a reward for Ohio State to get such a scrub in their first game. It's good to have tangible rewards for teams to keep playing for late in the year. This way, you don't see teams sitting starters late in the year.


And that's just the first weekend. They would stagger these on the schedule to make sure it's possible to watch all 8 of them. After that awesome weekend, the next week we get:
Either Florida or Alabama going to Columbus to try to take down Ohio State. (Personal prediction - Alabama wins.)
Probably Utah @ Georgia, but who knows. No matter what, it's a good matchup of 12-1 teams.
Either Oregon or Oklahoma traveling to Clemson. Should be a good one.
LSU hosting either Baylor or Wisconsin. LSU surely wins, but also probably a good one.


Another awesome weekend. I think it's better than 50-50 that one of the 3 undefeated teams loses, and we're all glued to our TVs the whole time.

Then we get these semifinals, which could be at neutral sites, though I'd be fine with keeping them at higher seeds:
Probably Alabama vs. Georgia, although Ohio State definitely could be in there in Alabama's slot
Probably Clemson vs. LSU


The main takeaways here:
The regular season is still awesome under this format. There's not a single regular season game that's less meaningful. Yes, Alabama still gets in despite the Iron Bowl loss, but their road becomes MUCH harder. Florida and Wisconsin lost their big games and have a much tougher road than LSU and Ohio State.
No one doubts the legitimacy of the national champion. If Alabama knocks out 4 straight teams, no one begrudges them at 14-2.
In some years you might get a 9-3 team in there as an at-large, but you usually don't. Looking back to 2014, only in 2018 was it not possible to set up a bracket where all of the at-larges were at least 10-2. Remember, this is going back the records before the conference championship games since they probably go away under this format. A lot of good teams pick up their third loss in there.
Every team has a shot. Giving every conference an autobid is important because no one can claim a P5 bias. In fact, I think under this format they should get rid of the P5/G5 distinction and just have 10 conferences. Yes, the former P5 conferences are going to get most if not all of the at-larges, but hypothetically there shouldn't be a barrier to San Diego State going 11-1 with a loss to 12-0 Wyoming and still getting selected.
The 14/15/16 teams are never going to win. Like, if we had the same system in place for 200 years, it's unlikely that any of them would reach the final 4 even once, much less win the title. And that's OK. It gives an extra reward for the top teams to keep playing for.
On the other hand, a team like Boise State or UCF could hypothetically go undefeated and get a good seed and who knows.
We would have made it in 2014, probably as the 8 seed, matched up against 9 seed like Michigan State or Georgia Tech (hopefully not). Assuming we don't blow a home game in round 1, we would have a chance at redemption in Tuscaloosa in the second round. Get by that and we probably take the national title.
Ole Miss might have snuck in 2014 or 2015, but both years they were 9-3 and it is possible to set up brackets without them. We wouldn't have been in the mix in 2015, but the 2017 Egg Bowl would have been more heartbreaking, as it would have knocked us out of playoff contention. (Though we probably still don't get selected at 9-3, but we'd at least have had a theoretical shot going into that last weekend if some other teams ahead of us lost.) We would have been safely in in 2018 with a competent coach who doesn't lose to Kentucky and Florida.
We would all watch every minute of this. We would all love every minute of this.

[bulldawg28]

Great post!

[ShotgunDawg]

These are the CFP rankings from the week before conference championship games this past year. I think it's a safe bet that CCGs go away under a 16-team playoff format.

1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. LSU (12-0)
3. Clemson (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Utah (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
7. Baylor (11-1)
8. Wisconsin (10-2)
9. Florida (10-2)
10. Penn State (10-2)
11. Auburn (9-3)
12. Alabama (10-2)
13. Oregon (10-2)
14. Michigan (9-3)
15. Notre Dame (10-2)
16. Iowa (9-3)

I also assume that there is going to be an autobid for each conference, so we only need to select 11 of these. (Memphis, Boise State, and Appalachian State were all 11-1 at this point.)

I think the top 9 are all easily in. I suspect Alabama (despite the Iron Bowl loss) and Oregon at probably the last 2. I would strongly support using some kind of objective, mathematically valid formula over a biased committee, but selection committees are how every other sport at every level does it, so that's probably what we get.

Is anyone here really telling me you wouldn't watch the hell of out this- I did my best to seed like I think the Committee would have, knowing that it's a 16-team format:


16. Miami OH (7-5) @ 1. Ohio State (12-0)
9. Florida (10-2) @ 8. Alabama (10-2)

12. Memphis (11-1) @ 5. Utah (11-1)
13. Boise State (11-1) @ 4. Georgia (11-1)

14. Appalachian State (11-1) @ 3. Clemson (12-0)
11. Oregon (10-2) @ 6. Oklahoma (11-1)

10. Wisconsin (10-2) @ 7. Baylor (11-1)
15. Florida Atlantic (9-3) @ 2. LSU (12-0)

Seven of the eight first round games are interesting.
Florida @ Alabama with a matchup against Ohio State on the line!
Memphis @ Utah, Georgia @ Boise State: You think the G5 team is sure to lose, but are they? Memphis has had a knack for beating P5 teams lately, and we all remember what happened the last time Boise State played Georgia.
Appalachian State @ Clemson seems like a snoozer, but Appalachian State already beat South Carolina and North Carolina (a team 1 point away from beating Clemson) earlier this year.
Oregon @ Oklahoma, Wisconsin @ Baylor: two exciting matchups between great teams.
Obviously LSU beats FAU and it's probably not close, but the Kiffin storyline is there.
Yeah, Miami/Ohio State is gonig to be a snoozer. Usually the best MAC team is better than 7-5, but that's not how it worked out in 2019. This is actually going to be a rematch of a game that Ohio State won in a blowout in the regular season. However, it is a reward for Ohio State to get such a scrub in their first game. It's good to have tangible rewards for teams to keep playing for late in the year. This way, you don't see teams sitting starters late in the year.


And that's just the first weekend. They would stagger these on the schedule to make sure it's possible to watch all 8 of them. After that awesome weekend, the next week we get:
Either Florida or Alabama going to Columbus to try to take down Ohio State. (Personal prediction - Alabama wins.)
Probably Utah @ Georgia, but who knows. No matter what, it's a good matchup of 12-1 teams.
Either Oregon or Oklahoma traveling to Clemson. Should be a good one.
LSU hosting either Baylor or Wisconsin. LSU surely wins, but also probably a good one.


Another awesome weekend. I think it's better than 50-50 that one of the 3 undefeated teams loses, and we're all glued to our TVs the whole time.

Then we get these semifinals, which could be at neutral sites, though I'd be fine with keeping them at higher seeds:
Probably Alabama vs. Georgia, although Ohio State definitely could be in there in Alabama's slot
Probably Clemson vs. LSU


The main takeaways here:
The regular season is still awesome under this format. There's not a single regular season game that's less meaningful. Yes, Alabama still gets in despite the Iron Bowl loss, but their road becomes MUCH harder. Florida and Wisconsin lost their big games and have a much tougher road than LSU and Ohio State.
No one doubts the legitimacy of the national champion. If Alabama knocks out 4 straight teams, no one begrudges them at 14-2.
In some years you might get a 9-3 team in there as an at-large, but you usually don't. Looking back to 2014, only in 2018 was it not possible to set up a bracket where all of the at-larges were at least 10-2. Remember, this is going back the records before the conference championship games since they probably go away under this format. A lot of good teams pick up their third loss in there.
Every team has a shot. Giving every conference an autobid is important because no one can claim a P5 bias. In fact, I think under this format they should get rid of the P5/G5 distinction and just have 10 conferences. Yes, the former P5 conferences are going to get most if not all of the at-larges, but hypothetically there shouldn't be a barrier to San Diego State going 11-1 with a loss to 12-0 Wyoming and still getting selected.
The 14/15/16 teams are never going to win. Like, if we had the same system in place for 200 years, it's unlikely that any of them would reach the final 4 even once, much less win the title. And that's OK. It gives an extra reward for the top teams to keep playing for.
On the other hand, a team like Boise State or UCF could hypothetically go undefeated and get a good seed and who knows.
We would have made it in 2014, probably as the 8 seed, matched up against 9 seed like Michigan State or Georgia Tech (hopefully not). Assuming we don't blow a home game in round 1, we would have a chance at redemption in Tuscaloosa in the second round. Get by that and we probably take the national title.
Ole Miss might have snuck in 2014 or 2015, but both years they were 9-3 and it is possible to set up brackets without them. We wouldn't have been in the mix in 2015, but the 2017 Egg Bowl would have been more heartbreaking, as it would have knocked us out of playoff contention. (Though we probably still don't get selected at 9-3, but we'd at least have had a theoretical shot going into that last weekend if some other teams ahead of us lost.) We would have been safely in in 2018 with a competent coach who doesn't lose to Kentucky and Florida.
We would all watch every minute of this. We would all love every minute of this.


Great post

I don't like the amount of G5's you have in it though.

Strength of schedule has to matter or schools like MSU would be better off just going to the G5.

[ShotgunDawg]

These are the CFP rankings from the week before conference championship games this past year. I think it's a safe bet that CCGs go away under a 16-team playoff format.

1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. LSU (12-0)
3. Clemson (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Utah (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
7. Baylor (11-1)
8. Wisconsin (10-2)
9. Florida (10-2)
10. Penn State (10-2)
11. Auburn (9-3)
12. Alabama (10-2)
13. Oregon (10-2)
14. Michigan (9-3)
15. Notre Dame (10-2)
16. Iowa (9-3)

I also assume that there is going to be an autobid for each conference, so we only need to select 11 of these. (Memphis, Boise State, and Appalachian State were all 11-1 at this point.)

I think the top 9 are all easily in. I suspect Alabama (despite the Iron Bowl loss) and Oregon at probably the last 2. I would strongly support using some kind of objective, mathematically valid formula over a biased committee, but selection committees are how every other sport at every level does it, so that's probably what we get.

Is anyone here really telling me you wouldn't watch the hell of out this- I did my best to seed like I think the Committee would have, knowing that it's a 16-team format:


16. Miami OH (7-5) @ 1. Ohio State (12-0)
9. Florida (10-2) @ 8. Alabama (10-2)

12. Memphis (11-1) @ 5. Utah (11-1)
13. Boise State (11-1) @ 4. Georgia (11-1)

14. Appalachian State (11-1) @ 3. Clemson (12-0)
11. Oregon (10-2) @ 6. Oklahoma (11-1)

10. Wisconsin (10-2) @ 7. Baylor (11-1)
15. Florida Atlantic (9-3) @ 2. LSU (12-0)

Seven of the eight first round games are interesting.
Florida @ Alabama with a matchup against Ohio State on the line!
Memphis @ Utah, Georgia @ Boise State: You think the G5 team is sure to lose, but are they? Memphis has had a knack for beating P5 teams lately, and we all remember what happened the last time Boise State played Georgia.
Appalachian State @ Clemson seems like a snoozer, but Appalachian State already beat South Carolina and North Carolina (a team 1 point away from beating Clemson) earlier this year.
Oregon @ Oklahoma, Wisconsin @ Baylor: two exciting matchups between great teams.
Obviously LSU beats FAU and it's probably not close, but the Kiffin storyline is there.
Yeah, Miami/Ohio State is gonig to be a snoozer. Usually the best MAC team is better than 7-5, but that's not how it worked out in 2019. This is actually going to be a rematch of a game that Ohio State won in a blowout in the regular season. However, it is a reward for Ohio State to get such a scrub in their first game. It's good to have tangible rewards for teams to keep playing for late in the year. This way, you don't see teams sitting starters late in the year.


And that's just the first weekend. They would stagger these on the schedule to make sure it's possible to watch all 8 of them. After that awesome weekend, the next week we get:
Either Florida or Alabama going to Columbus to try to take down Ohio State. (Personal prediction - Alabama wins.)
Probably Utah @ Georgia, but who knows. No matter what, it's a good matchup of 12-1 teams.
Either Oregon or Oklahoma traveling to Clemson. Should be a good one.
LSU hosting either Baylor or Wisconsin. LSU surely wins, but also probably a good one.


Another awesome weekend. I think it's better than 50-50 that one of the 3 undefeated teams loses, and we're all glued to our TVs the whole time.

Then we get these semifinals, which could be at neutral sites, though I'd be fine with keeping them at higher seeds:
Probably Alabama vs. Georgia, although Ohio State definitely could be in there in Alabama's slot
Probably Clemson vs. LSU


The main takeaways here:
The regular season is still awesome under this format. There's not a single regular season game that's less meaningful. Yes, Alabama still gets in despite the Iron Bowl loss, but their road becomes MUCH harder. Florida and Wisconsin lost their big games and have a much tougher road than LSU and Ohio State.
No one doubts the legitimacy of the national champion. If Alabama knocks out 4 straight teams, no one begrudges them at 14-2.
In some years you might get a 9-3 team in there as an at-large, but you usually don't. Looking back to 2014, only in 2018 was it not possible to set up a bracket where all of the at-larges were at least 10-2. Remember, this is going back the records before the conference championship games since they probably go away under this format. A lot of good teams pick up their third loss in there.
Every team has a shot. Giving every conference an autobid is important because no one can claim a P5 bias. In fact, I think under this format they should get rid of the P5/G5 distinction and just have 10 conferences. Yes, the former P5 conferences are going to get most if not all of the at-larges, but hypothetically there shouldn't be a barrier to San Diego State going 11-1 with a loss to 12-0 Wyoming and still getting selected.
The 14/15/16 teams are never going to win. Like, if we had the same system in place for 200 years, it's unlikely that any of them would reach the final 4 even once, much less win the title. And that's OK. It gives an extra reward for the top teams to keep playing for.
On the other hand, a team like Boise State or UCF could hypothetically go undefeated and get a good seed and who knows.
We would have made it in 2014, probably as the 8 seed, matched up against 9 seed like Michigan State or Georgia Tech (hopefully not). Assuming we don't blow a home game in round 1, we would have a chance at redemption in Tuscaloosa in the second round. Get by that and we probably take the national title.
Ole Miss might have snuck in 2014 or 2015, but both years they were 9-3 and it is possible to set up brackets without them. We wouldn't have been in the mix in 2015, but the 2017 Egg Bowl would have been more heartbreaking, as it would have knocked us out of playoff contention. (Though we probably still don't get selected at 9-3, but we'd at least have had a theoretical shot going into that last weekend if some other teams ahead of us lost.) We would have been safely in in 2018 with a competent coach who doesn't lose to Kentucky and Florida.
We would all watch every minute of this. We would all love every minute of this.


Great post

I don't like the amount of G5's you have in it though.

Strength of schedule has to matter or schools like MSU would be better off just going to the G5.

I think way too many people care about the G5's feelings.

I don't. If they aren't ranked in too 16c they don't get in.

[ShotgunDawg]

These are the CFP rankings from the week before conference championship games this past year. I think it's a safe bet that CCGs go away under a 16-team playoff format.

1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. LSU (12-0)
3. Clemson (12-0)
4. Georgia (11-1)
5. Utah (11-1)
6. Oklahoma (11-1)
7. Baylor (11-1)
8. Wisconsin (10-2)
9. Florida (10-2)
10. Penn State (10-2)
11. Auburn (9-3)
12. Alabama (10-2)
13. Oregon (10-2)
14. Michigan (9-3)
15. Notre Dame (10-2)
16. Iowa (9-3)

I also assume that there is going to be an autobid for each conference, so we only need to select 11 of these. (Memphis, Boise State, and Appalachian State were all 11-1 at this point.)

I think the top 9 are all easily in. I suspect Alabama (despite the Iron Bowl loss) and Oregon at probably the last 2. I would strongly support using some kind of objective, mathematically valid formula over a biased committee, but selection committees are how every other sport at every level does it, so that's probably what we get.

Is anyone here really telling me you wouldn't watch the hell of out this- I did my best to seed like I think the Committee would have, knowing that it's a 16-team format:


16. Miami OH (7-5) @ 1. Ohio State (12-0)
9. Florida (10-2) @ 8. Alabama (10-2)

12. Memphis (11-1) @ 5. Utah (11-1)
13. Boise State (11-1) @ 4. Georgia (11-1)

14. Appalachian State (11-1) @ 3. Clemson (12-0)
11. Oregon (10-2) @ 6. Oklahoma (11-1)

10. Wisconsin (10-2) @ 7. Baylor (11-1)
15. Florida Atlantic (9-3) @ 2. LSU (12-0)

Seven of the eight first round games are interesting.
Florida @ Alabama with a matchup against Ohio State on the line!
Memphis @ Utah, Georgia @ Boise State: You think the G5 team is sure to lose, but are they? Memphis has had a knack for beating P5 teams lately, and we all remember what happened the last time Boise State played Georgia.
Appalachian State @ Clemson seems like a snoozer, but Appalachian State already beat South Carolina and North Carolina (a team 1 point away from beating Clemson) earlier this year.
Oregon @ Oklahoma, Wisconsin @ Baylor: two exciting matchups between great teams.
Obviously LSU beats FAU and it's probably not close, but the Kiffin storyline is there.
Yeah, Miami/Ohio State is gonig to be a snoozer. Usually the best MAC team is better than 7-5, but that's not how it worked out in 2019. This is actually going to be a rematch of a game that Ohio State won in a blowout in the regular season. However, it is a reward for Ohio State to get such a scrub in their first game. It's good to have tangible rewards for teams to keep playing for late in the year. This way, you don't see teams sitting starters late in the year.


And that's just the first weekend. They would stagger these on the schedule to make sure it's possible to watch all 8 of them. After that awesome weekend, the next week we get:
Either Florida or Alabama going to Columbus to try to take down Ohio State. (Personal prediction - Alabama wins.)
Probably Utah @ Georgia, but who knows. No matter what, it's a good matchup of 12-1 teams.
Either Oregon or Oklahoma traveling to Clemson. Should be a good one.
LSU hosting either Baylor or Wisconsin. LSU surely wins, but also probably a good one.


Another awesome weekend. I think it's better than 50-50 that one of the 3 undefeated teams loses, and we're all glued to our TVs the whole time.

Then we get these semifinals, which could be at neutral sites, though I'd be fine with keeping them at higher seeds:
Probably Alabama vs. Georgia, although Ohio State definitely could be in there in Alabama's slot
Probably Clemson vs. LSU


The main takeaways here:
The regular season is still awesome under this format. There's not a single regular season game that's less meaningful. Yes, Alabama still gets in despite the Iron Bowl loss, but their road becomes MUCH harder. Florida and Wisconsin lost their big games and have a much tougher road than LSU and Ohio State.
No one doubts the legitimacy of the national champion. If Alabama knocks out 4 straight teams, no one begrudges them at 14-2.
In some years you might get a 9-3 team in there as an at-large, but you usually don't. Looking back to 2014, only in 2018 was it not possible to set up a bracket where all of the at-larges were at least 10-2. Remember, this is going back the records before the conference championship games since they probably go away under this format. A lot of good teams pick up their third loss in there.
Every team has a shot. Giving every conference an autobid is important because no one can claim a P5 bias. In fact, I think under this format they should get rid of the P5/G5 distinction and just have 10 conferences. Yes, the former P5 conferences are going to get most if not all of the at-larges, but hypothetically there shouldn't be a barrier to San Diego State going 11-1 with a loss to 12-0 Wyoming and still getting selected.
The 14/15/16 teams are never going to win. Like, if we had the same system in place for 200 years, it's unlikely that any of them would reach the final 4 even once, much less win the title. And that's OK. It gives an extra reward for the top teams to keep playing for.
On the other hand, a team like Boise State or UCF could hypothetically go undefeated and get a good seed and who knows.
We would have made it in 2014, probably as the 8 seed, matched up against 9 seed like Michigan State or Georgia Tech (hopefully not). Assuming we don't blow a home game in round 1, we would have a chance at redemption in Tuscaloosa in the second round. Get by that and we probably take the national title.
Ole Miss might have snuck in 2014 or 2015, but both years they were 9-3 and it is possible to set up brackets without them. We wouldn't have been in the mix in 2015, but the 2017 Egg Bowl would have been more heartbreaking, as it would have knocked us out of playoff contention. (Though we probably still don't get selected at 9-3, but we'd at least have had a theoretical shot going into that last weekend if some other teams ahead of us lost.) We would have been safely in in 2018 with a competent coach who doesn't lose to Kentucky and Florida.
We would all watch every minute of this. We would all love every minute of this.


Great post

I don't like the amount of G5's you have in it though.

Strength of schedule has to matter or schools like MSU would be better off just going to the G5.

I think way too many people care about the G5's feelings.

I don't. If they aren't ranked in top 16 they don't get in.

This tournament should be less about giving G5's a shot and more about giving 2014 MSU a shot, with 5 pro bowlers on the team, but had one bad day in Tuscaloosa.

I'm convinced that with a 16 team playoff, we win at OM that year due to having more to play for.