Easter Sunday Severe?

[starkvegasdawg]

Going to start off with this has a lot of ifs to it, but this Sunday has the potential to have some possibly significant severe weather for parts of MS. There's still some disagreements between the Euro and GFS models and which one ends up being right will determine what happens where. The latest model runs with the GFS show the severe threat much reduced and primarily confined to near the coast. However, the Euro is much stronger and brings the severe threat further north to the I-20 corridor and possibly as far north as the Highway 82 corridor. Interestingly enough, both models have dug in on their respective positions the last couple days. I don't like mentioning severe weather without better agreement among the models, but with it being 1. Easter Sunday and 2. The type event that could unfold should the Euro prove the winner I went ahead and pulled the trigger.

I know almost every church has canceled services through Easter, but even at home this system may bear watching. If, big if, the Euro is right, have some way to get warnings while you're streaming your Easter Sunday service as this may kick off late morning to early afternoon.

Now back to arguing over corona virus and bitching about Vic leaving.

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks Stark

[starkvegasdawg]

https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/swody5_severeprob.png?v=270

Pieces starting to come together for a potential significant severe weather event Sunday. Models still not in complete agreement, but all are starting to slow down the timing. The overnight euro was even slower than before. What this all means is that it will give the storm more time to draw up rich unstable air from the Gulf and also allow the low pressure to take on a more negative tilt which will cause the winds to be favorable for discrete supercells and tornadoes. While not etched in stone, this system has the potential to be substantial. We wont know for sure until we get closer and the models get a better grasp on it, but if you live in MS /AL (particularly along or south of Highway 82) then you need to start making sure your severe weather plans are ready just in case.

[basedog]

I'm in the emergency response logistics with many utility or power companies. I have a concern with the Hurricane season this year, above average predictions and all the staging sites we work with so many companies bringing crews in to restore power. As of today with all this virus stuff, can't image how this will be handled with these staging sites.

[starkvegasdawg]

The latest from Jackson NWS:

The main severe weather threat will be during the day on Sunday with convection residing within a prefrontal surface trough. However, the
actual cold front will be lagging well behind the system and is forecast to still be in eastern Oklahoma by Sunday evening. The
boundary of interest will actually be a pseudo dryline with the actual cold front not reaching the region until Monday. The parameter space within the highly sheared warm sector will support the potential for a significant severe weather episode. Deep layer shear vectors oriented off the boundary will also be supportive of discrete supercells with all modes of severe weather including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.


This is still shaping up to be a very dangerous day across parts of MS / AL.

[RocketDawg]

There's some possiblity of severe weather tonight/early tomorrow morning also, last time I checked.

[starkvegasdawg]

There's some possiblity of severe weather tonight/early tomorrow morning also, last time I checked.

There is but it's mainly up into TN. Had some severe storms near a meridian and may see some more redevelop over north MS overnight, but the main event is definitely Sunday.

[dawgoneyall]

Vic left?

Damn this is why we need a sports board.

[RocketDawg]

There is but it's mainly up into TN. Had some severe storms near a meridian and may see some more redevelop over north MS overnight, but the main event is definitely Sunday.

We had a renegade severe warned storm move through about an hour ago. Looks like it's hanging together as it goes to the SE. Tornado watch for the western half of Tennessee. I wouldn't be surprised to have it move south a little since storms are supposed to come through in the wee hours of the morning. Might miss most if not all of northern Miss though. Meridian storms have totally dissipated.

But yes, Sunday is likey a bigger event. But you never know - the Nashville-and-points-east tornadoes sorta came out of the blue. Nothing like that was really expected.

[starkvegasdawg]

The news continues to point to a volatile, dangerous Easter Sunday.

From the SPC:

...DISCUSSION...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears possible on Sunday
across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and possibly into
Georgia by Sunday night. Tornadoes (potentially strong/long-tracked)
and widespread damaging winds are expected to be the primary
hazards.

https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/swody4_severeprob.png?v=611

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

Starkvegas, is this shaping up to be 4/27/11 kind of bad? I've seen a few of your tweets and they sound concerning.

[starkvegasdawg]

Starkvegas, is this shaping up to be 4/27/11 kind of bad? I've seen a few of your tweets and they sound concerning.

4/27/11 was a generational level event. The last one of that magnitude before that was the super outbreak of 1974. So while Sunday could be bad and see several tornadoes, I have no belief it will even approach 4/27.

General rule of thumb, whenever you see anybody on social media trying to compare a severe event to 4/27, you can be 99.999% sure they're fear mongering looking for clicks.

[starkvegasdawg]

Most of MS is now under a moderate risk for severe weather as an outbreak continues to look more and more likely. Violent long track tornadoes continue to be a concern along with straight line winds of 70-80mph and large hail. This is shaping up to be a dangerous volatile day.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif

[Bubb Rubb]

It's pretty unusual that you see all of the models come into close agreement on the worst case scenario. A day 3 moderate forecast is pretty rare. Sunday could be a really bad day.

[starkvegasdawg]

It's pretty unusual that you see all of the models come into close agreement on the worst case scenario. A day 3 moderate forecast is pretty rare. Sunday could be a really bad day.

Agreed. They'll usually disagree about something. A day 3 mod is a pretty rare event. I think in the last 20 years or so it's happened 10 times. Of those, 6-7 have gone on to be high risk days.

[dawgoneyall]

What area will yall most likely look to chase? 82 north -82 south

[starkvegasdawg]

What area will yall most likely look to chase? 82 north -82 south

If I had to make a final decision now I'd probably set up somewhere just west of Jackson where I had a good north south road. These storms are supposed to be moving around 50mph or more so got to stay out in front of them.

ETA: As of right now, somewhere between Tchula and Yazoo City would look to be good staging points.

[parabrave]

Hey SVD check your SWx Outbreak History and how many Easter outbreaks do we have? It seems every 4-5 years we have one.

[TheRef]

Hey guys, long time no post. ANYWAY, I felt like this is a good time as any to come back and post about weather. Looking at the soundings and models, it does seem like there is a good agreement of severe weather over Central MS, Northern AL, and Northeast LA portions of Middle Tennessee. Now with long-track tornadoes highly possible with this setup, I wouldn't be surprised if we wake up Sunday morning to a High risk area over an area covering from about just east of Greenwood stretching up towards the Huntsville area. As far as height of the area, I wouldn't be surprised if Greenwood is the northern end and a line equal with Jackson on the Southern end of this high-risk area. Not to say that SPC can't adjust the lines of this going forward (and they will) I just think that's going to be the proverbial "bullseye" of the system. The SPC discussion points out that there is a likelihood of long-track tornadoes and widespread wind damage. We may be looking at a quall event later on that has leading isolated cells that could become tornadic in nature. If these cells get an inhibited flow from the Gulf, expect these things to turn into monsters. SVD, I'm sure you have been looking at the models a little bit more than I have lately. But I'm sure everyone should be looking through their severe weather plans, making sure with local authorities that local storm shelters will be available if a watch/warning is issued (please do this...not sure how many municipalities and counties are going to change their procedures due to COVID). Most of all, PLEASE heed the warnings from the National Weather Service and your local meteorologists.

[TheRef]

As a follow-up, here is the NAM sounding for around the Columbus, MS area for around 7 PM Sunday. What this shows is a perfect environment for rapid storm development if it verifies.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_221_2020041012_F60_33.5000N_88.5000W.png

[parabrave]

As a follow-up, here is the NAM sounding for around the Columbus, MS area for around 7 PM Sunday. What this shows is a perfect environment for rapid storm development if it verifies.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_221_2020041012_F60_33.5000N_88.5000W.png

Please decipher/

[TheRef]

Please decipher/

Essentially what the sounding is showing is that the upper atmosphere is modeled to be perfect for a late-afternoon/evening building up of storms that if left isolated from the rest of the system, could develop into a dangerous cell. If you look at the hodograph that is accompanying that sounding (which I can post as well if you'd like), shows a perfect arc of winds that will create a natural upwards spin to the cell. This will provide an upper-level support that can be developed if enough moisture and heat is laid down ahead of time. Essentially, if you are in the highest-risk area and you wake up Sunday morning to clear sunny skies, it's going to be a LONG day.

[MetEdDawg]

Please decipher/

Basically the atmosphere has very solid conditions to support severe weather. Winds are veering with height to support rotating updrafts. There will be enough convection energy to support strong thunderstorms. Saturation will happen rapidly, so the surface based nature of these storms will be very supportive of maintaining potentially dangerous severe weather, most specifically including tornadoes.

Basically it's not good at all. Very likely we have a major severe weather event.

[starkvegasdawg]

Let me be clear that I am in NO way saying Sunday is going to approach this, but some of the computer based analogs are using 4/27/11 as a comparison. I still don't think we come close to that event, but it does give some idea to the level of dynamics we're dealing with. I am saying now that if things remain unchanged there will be a high risk area. What I am getting interested in is how far north this goes. Some of the models are starting to trend it further north.

[Bubb Rubb]

Let me be clear that I am in NO way saying Sunday is going to approach this, but some of the computer based analogs are using 4/27/11 as a comparison. I still don't think we come close to that event, but it does give some idea to the level of dynamics we're dealing with. I am saying now that if things remain unchanged there will be a high risk area. What I am getting interested in is how far north this goes. Some of the models are starting to trend it further north.

This thing is getting more and more frightening with every new model run. I hesitate to compare to 4/27 but based on what we're seeing, you certainly can't rule it out.

[parabrave]

The chart reminds me of the 1st time I looked at my aviators wheel and learning how to use it.

[starkvegasdawg]

This thing is getting more and more frightening with every new model run. I hesitate to compare to 4/27 but based on what we're seeing, you certainly can't rule it out.

Yeah, any reputable meteorologist / weather person is always extremely hesitant to compare anything to 4/27. But this has the potential, if it all sets up correctly, to at least be in the same zip code. But that's something we won't know until it starts. There are still some things that could reduce the intensity of this. That's why 4/27 was such a rare event. It was the perfect set up.

[Bubb Rubb]

Yeah, any reputable meteorologist / weather person is always extremely hesitant to compare anything to 4/27. But this has the potential, if it all sets up correctly, to at least be in the same zip code. But that's something we won't know until it starts. There are still some things that could reduce the intensity of this. That's why 4/27 was such a rare event. It was the perfect set up.

The biggest thing to me is timing....is the early morning convection going to crap up the atmosphere and will there be enough time allowed for heating to re-energize things. Right now the models suggest this won't be a problem.

[Indndawg]

you expecting the central part of MS to be under a Level 5?

[starkvegasdawg]

The biggest thing to me is timing....is the early morning convection going to crap up the atmosphere and will there be enough time allowed for heating to re-energize things. Right now the models suggest this won't be a problem.

Yeah. I don't think it'll be much of an issue, but that's one of the things that will have to be reconciled to determine how big of a day this ends up. Again, not making comparisons, but 4/27 had a morning and afternoon round. The Smithville EF-5 was that morning and the atmosphere recovered to then produce that outbreak in the afternoon.

[RocketDawg]

When do the next model runs come out?

[starkvegasdawg]

you expecting the central part of MS to be under a Level 5?

I think it's highly likely. I was talking with a meteorologist from one of the area tv stations who got some info from somewhere that the 45% hatched threat level that the SPC has for the moderate risk area is for tornado and wind. If that is accurate, then the 45% for tornado is enough for a day 1 high risk. They do not issue a high risk on day 3 and only for 60% hatched on day 2 for tornado. However, for day 1 the threshold drops to 30% hatched for tornado to warrant a high risk so if we maintain the 45% hatched then a high risk is guaranteed.

[RocketDawg]

Yeah. I don't think it'll be much of an issue, but that's one of the things that will have to be reconciled to determine how big of a day this ends up. Again, not making comparisons, but 4/27 had a morning and afternoon round. The Smithville EF-5 was that morning and the atmosphere recovered to then produce that outbreak in the afternoon.

That's interesting. I didn't realize the Smithville 5 was in the morning. How much time elapsed between the Smithville one and when the one formed just across the state line near Hamilton, AL? Things didn't really get kicking around north Alabama until mid-afternoon, if I recall correctly, but the Hamilton/Hackleburg hung together through here (a somewhat lower intensity level) and into Tennessee.

[starkvegasdawg]

When do the next model runs come out?

The euro runs twice a day at 7:00am/pm. The nam and gfs run at those times plus 1:00am/pm. However, there is a lag between when they run and when they're available. You'll get the nam runs a couple hours later. The gfs and euro can take 4-6 hours.

[starkvegasdawg]

That's interesting. I didn't realize the Smithville 5 was in the morning. How much time elapsed between the Smithville one and when the one formed just across the state line near Hamilton, AL? Things didn't really get kicking around north Alabama until mid-afternoon, if I recall correctly, but the Hamilton/Hackleburg hung together through here (a somewhat lower intensity level) and into Tennessee.

Ok. I was dead wrong. I could have sworn the Smithville tornado was in the morning but it touched down at 3:44pm. Now I have no idea what tornado I was thinking about.

[RocketDawg]

Maybe the Tupelo one that was in a different year? I recall seeing it on a church's video. I don't remember if it was morning or not though, but it was memorable. Or maybe the Louisville one that was part of the 4/27 outbreak?

[RocketDawg]

The euro runs twice a day at 7:00am/pm. The nam and gfs run at those times plus 1:00am/pm. However, there is a lag between when they run and when they're available. You'll get the nam runs a couple hours later. The gfs and euro can take 4-6 hours.

Thanks. So NAM and GFS sometime later this afternoon. Euro maybe midnight.

[Bubb Rubb]

Maybe the Tupelo one that was in a different year? I recall seeing it on a church's video. I don't remember if it was morning or not though, but it was memorable. Or maybe the Louisville one that was part of the 4/27 outbreak?

The Tupelo one was a big deal, but I don't really remember the setup for it being anything like what we're seeing for Sunday.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks. So NAM and GFS sometime later this afternoon. Euro maybe midnight.

We'll get the 1:00pm NAM around 3:30 or so and the 7:00pm NAM around 9:3. The GFS will be around 6:00 and midnight respectively. The euro will roll in around 1:30am give or take. SPC should update for the new Day 2 which will be Sunday around 1:00-1:30am.

[Commercecomet24]

How's it looking for Jones/Jasper county area? Appreciate all your jnfo!

[TheRef]

How's it looking for Jones/Jasper county area? Appreciate all your jnfo!

Too early to tell, IMO. The finer points should be hammered out in the next 24-36 hours

[Commercecomet24]

Too early to tell, IMO. The finer points should be hammered out in the next 24-36 hours

Appreciate it.

[starkvegasdawg]

Too early to tell, IMO. The finer points should be hammered out in the next 24-36 hours

It is too early to tell, but if you live anywhere in MS or AL then I would prepare for very dangerous weather.

[TheRef]

It is too early to tell, but if you live anywhere in MS or AL then I would prepare for very dangerous weather.

Central and Northeast LA should prepare as well

[TheRef]

Here is the part of the SPC discussion that is interesting. The fact that SPC is THIS confident about what they are putting out 3 days out is concerning.


...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears likely Sunday into
Sunday night, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana
east-northeastward through much of the Southeast and Tennessee
Valley. Strong, long-tracked tornadoes and potentially widespread
damaging wind are possible.

[EngDawg]

Ok. I was dead wrong. I could have sworn the Smithville tornado was in the morning but it touched down at 3:44pm. Now I have no idea what tornado I was thinking about.

There was an EF-3 in Monroe Country early that morning. Perhaps that?s what you were thinking of?

[Commercecomet24]

I think I can speak for all of us. Y'all are an invaluable resource and the info you bring is much appreciated. Thank you to all of you who post this info on here and are so willing to answer questions!

[starkvegasdawg]

There was an EF-3 in Monroe Country early that morning. Perhaps that?s what you were thinking of?

Maybe so. And there may have been one in AL. I'm just too lazy to google this afternoon.

[starkvegasdawg]

I think I can speak for all of us. Y'all are an invaluable resource and the info you bring is much appreciated. Thank you to all of you who post this info on here and are so willing to answer questions!

You're welcome. But keep in mind Ref is the subject matter expert on all this. I know enough to almost be dangerous and hopefully not get myself killed while out chasing. Although having been directly hit by three tornadoes in the last year I may not be as knowledgeable as I thought I was. At least makes for good live streaming and video, though.

[TheRef]

I think I can speak for all of us. Y'all are an invaluable resource and the info you bring is much appreciated. Thank you to all of you who post this info on here and are so willing to answer questions!

I haven't really gone head-first into weather in a long time. However, this is one where I'll dust off my Meteorology brain and crank the ol' engine up for a test-drive. I may not have access to all of the fancy models and gadgets I've had before, but I can still make accurate forecasts on what I can grab. Honestly, this whole event is one that may just bring me back to posting regularly here. Having a small child and working graveyards may break into this, but who knows. Honestly, I've been too focused on other matters to really want to post on here. But hey...whatever happens happens.

[yjnkdawg]

I think I can speak for all of us. Y'all are an invaluable resource and the info you bring is much appreciated. Thank you to all of you who post this info on here and are so willing to answer questions!


I agree 100% with CC, and I appreciate your time and effort in providing us viable information in potential severe weather or severe weather outbreaks. Great to see you back on, Ref.

[TheRef]

I agree 100% with CC, and I appreciate your time and effort in providing us viable information in potential severe weather or severe weather outbreaks. Great to see you back on, Ref.

Glad to be back, honestly.

[yjnkdawg]

Is Tropical Tidbits a good website to see the model runs, for somebody who just has an interest in the weather, and knows a little about fronts, pressure systems, etc. ( I took the two NWS Spotter classes) but not even close to being dangerous like Vegas said he was.

[TheRef]

Is Tropical Tidbits a good website to see the model runs, for somebody who just has an interest in the weather, and knows a little about fronts, pressure systems, etc. ( I took the two NWS Spotter classes) but not even close to being dangerous like Vegas said he was.

Tropical Tidbits is run by a really cool dude. Anyway, he runs a great site and while his site is more geared towards tropical systems, he offers a lot of good models. For good, free severe weather modeling I use TwisterData.com.

Edit: the guy's name is Levi

[Liverpooldawg]

Yeah. I don't think it'll be much of an issue, but that's one of the things that will have to be reconciled to determine how big of a day this ends up. Again, not making comparisons, but 4/27 had a morning and afternoon round. The Smithville EF-5 was that morning and the atmosphere recovered to then produce that outbreak in the afternoon.

Smithville was a late afternoon tornado, not morning.

[Liverpooldawg]

That's interesting. I didn't realize the Smithville 5 was in the morning. How much time elapsed between the Smithville one and when the one formed just across the state line near Hamilton, AL? Things didn't really get kicking around north Alabama until mid-afternoon, if I recall correctly, but the Hamilton/Hackleburg hung together through here (a somewhat lower intensity level) and into Tennessee.

It wasn't.

[Liverpooldawg]

There was an EF-3 in Monroe Country early that morning. Perhaps that?s what you were thinking of?

Only one in Monroe County that day. The Smithville one started in the Wren community as a much weaker tornado. It lifted for a bit and then touched down again with a vengeance.

[yjnkdawg]

Tropical Tidbits is run by a really cool dude. Anyway, he runs a great site and while his site is more geared towards tropical systems, he offers a lot of good models. For good, free severe weather modeling I use TwisterData.com.

Edit: the guy's name is Levi


Thanks for the info, Ref about TwisterData.com. Yeah, I've also watched Levi Cowan on his videos, concerning tropical systems. He is very informative and knowledgeable.

[TheRef]

Thanks for the info, Ref about TwisterData.com. Yeah, I've also watched Levi Cowan on his videos, concerning tropical systems. He is very informative and knowledgeable.

If you follow him on twitter, he's really good about updates on the site and in general maintenance requests for the site. He's on top of things there.

[DownwardDawg]

I think I can speak for all of us. Y'all are an invaluable resource and the info you bring is much appreciated. Thank you to all of you who post this info on here and are so willing to answer questions!

I agree. And great to have Ref back!!

[TheRef]

I agree. And great to have Ref back!!

https://66.media.tumblr.com/be862494a04aed3632fd9ab55f624f17/tumblr_otk00jILBB1qmob6ro1_500.gif

[Dawgbite]

Only one in Monroe County that day. The Smithville one started in the Wren community as a much weaker tornado. It lifted for a bit and then touched down again with a vengeance.

Two in Monroe that day. I live in Wren, both passed about two miles from my house. The morning one wasn?t as strong but passed a commercial business just up the road on its right side by about 200 yards. This one was before daylight. The Smithville tornado crossed 45 just 200 yards to the left of the business. No damage from either to the business but total destruction on both sides. The Smithville tornado was about 3 pm, my Dumbass stood in the parking lot at work in Amory and watched it headed up the waterway.

[confucius say]

Can y'all speak to timing? Like is it going to be along a squal line that extends from Tupelo to Natchez? And once a line passes you it is over? Or more of an all day event where smn could pop up at anytime during the day?

[starkvegasdawg]

Can y'all speak to timing? Like is it going to be along a squal line that extends from Tupelo to Natchez? And once a line passes you it is over? Or more of an all day event where smn could pop up at anytime during the day?

It's going to be over an extended time. There will be discrete supercells starting mid morning and that will be the storm mode most of the day. Once the cold front approaches a squall line will form and clear everything out.

[Bubb Rubb]

It's going to be over an extended time. There will be discrete supercells starting mid morning and that will be the storm mode most of the day. Once the cold front approaches a squall line will form and clear everything out.

Early models were showing the squall line to be less severe than the discrete stuff throughout the day, but now the squall line is starting to look scary too. Sunday is looking like a 12 hour roller coaster ride.

[starkvegasdawg]

Early models were showing the squall line to be less severe than the discrete stuff throughout the day, but now the squall line is starting to look scary too. Sunday is looking like a 12 hour roller coaster ride.

The discrete cells will have your greatest risk for the strong long track tornadoes and the extremely large hail. The line will be your biggest threat for the damaging straight line winds. That said, the line can still produce tornadoes and hail, but typically they won't be as intense as those in the discrete cells. Right now I'm anticipating a 3-5 hour window of discrete supercells and then the squall line pushing through and clearing it all out.

[jgunn]

Great info guys! Do you all think it will come as far north as Southaven/Memphis area?

[Liverpooldawg]

Two in Monroe that day. I live in Wren, both passed about two miles from my house. The morning one wasn?t as strong but passed a commercial business just up the road on its right side by about 200 yards. This one was before daylight. The Smithville tornado crossed 45 just 200 yards to the left of the business. No damage from either to the business but total destruction on both sides. The Smithville tornado was about 3 pm, my Dumbass stood in the parking lot at work in Amory and watched it headed up the waterway.

I don't think the morning one was ever officially defined as a tornado.

[Bubb Rubb]

Great info guys! Do you all think it will come as far north as Southaven/Memphis area?

It's looking more and more likely. As it stands now, Memphis is in the day 3 enhanced field already. There will definitely be severe stuff there when the squall line comes through. How much discrete severe weather you get will depend on how far north the warm front gets and how much time the atmosphere gets to recover from sunday morning convection.

[DownwardDawg]

https://66.media.tumblr.com/be862494a04aed3632fd9ab55f624f17/tumblr_otk00jILBB1qmob6ro1_500.gif

My all time favorite movie.

It’s cold tonight. Like stupid cold for tonight. Doesn’t feel like it’s gonna get bad weather!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest SPC guidance is out. As expected, it has remained a moderate threat over much of MS with a 15% hatched threat for tornadoes and a 30% hatched for wind and hail. Jackson NWS is saying hail up to tennis ball size will be possible Sunday. They did leave the door wide open for an upgrade to a high risk, but there are a few issues that need to be resolved mainly dealing with how morning convection may or may not hamper the main event afternoon storms.

[Churchill]

LOL I go and look at all the maps and read everything I can....then I come here to find out what the hell I just looked at. I can't thank you guys enough for being here.

[TheRef]

LOL I go and look at all the maps and read everything I can....then I come here to find out what the hell I just looked at. I can't thank you guys enough for being here.

That's what we're here for

[dawgoneyall]

That's what we're here for

But you are not up at 2:30 in the morning like starkvegasdawg :)

[TheRef]

But you are not up at 2:30 in the morning like starkvegasdawg :)

I am...I'm working at that time.

[Churchill]

Ref, What's your take at this time ?

[TheRef]

Ref, What's your take at this time ?

This is going to be a dangerous/volatile system. Take this threat seriously. If you wake up Sunday morning to bright sunny skies, we're going to have a bad time. Today, make sure your severe weather plan is known by everyone in your household. If you go to a community/public tornado shelter, go ahead and get some PPE for you and your family. If you're placed under a watch, keep your eyes open. Heed all warnings and take this seriously. If this setup ends up verifying like the models say, it's going to be a long system.

Now models are currently trying to decide if this will turn into a linear system or if cells will stay discrete. Those storm modes both bring different volatility standards. Just keep an eye out and listen to your local meteorologists and the National Weather Service. Don't worry about TOR:CON or any other weird index. Mainly, just act like we always have for severe weather days.

[Churchill]

Thank you.

[parabrave]

Thanks for posting some of the sites but what Radar sites do you follow? I watch the NWS velocity radar but it seems to me to be too general.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks for posting some of the sites but what Radar sites do you follow? I watch the NWS velocity radar but it seems to me to be too general.

For radar, I'd get RadarScope for your phone. The best $9.99 you will spend. Then if you want to get fancy you can upgrade to tier 1 for $9.99/year.

[yjnkdawg]

For radar, I'd get RadarScope for your phone. The best $9.99 you will spend. Then if you want to get fancy you can upgrade to tier 1 for $9.99/year.


I got fancy over a year or so ago. A lot of tools to use and I'm still slowly learning but haven't gotten there yet. I had PYKL3Radar prior too but they went out of business. RadarScope Pro Tier 1 is so much better,

[TheRef]

Thanks for posting some of the sites but what Radar sites do you follow? I watch the NWS velocity radar but it seems to me to be too general.

I use two different radar applications/programs

Mobile (iPhone): Radarscope with Tier 1 subscription

Desktop (Windows): GRLevel3

Both of these are paid applications. Radarscope basic is $9.99 one-time, Tier 1 is $9.99/year. GRLevel3 is $79.95 one time.

Both of these only pull data from one radar site at a time. So if you're in a triple-point of radar coverage (looking at you Washington, Bolivar, and Chicot Counties) you're kinda SOL on getting a good radar. However, the amount of valuable data you can pull, along with the QUALITY of data is unmatched. If you still are not satisfied about the data you're pulling for those apps/programs, I would use allisonhouse for your data pulls. They're reliable and you can actually customize a few features for both of them.

Then again, this is all very much based upon someone who uses these programs frequently and heavily.

[TheRef]

For more teaching/training on your dual-pol radar data, there are many different online courses/videos to help decipher what you are looking at.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/spcousom/#dpra (Direct link to all video trainings/presentations from the Storm Prediction Center)

If you take out the #dpra you will see the full index of videos offered, and yes...you name it, they have a video training for it. The SPC does all training for severe weather analysis within the NOAA spectrum.

[starkvegasdawg]

My laptop runs GR2 Analyst but that's a little much for the casual person.

[yjnkdawg]

For more teaching/training on your dual-pol radar data, there are many different online courses/videos to help decipher what you are looking at.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/spcousom/#dpra (Direct link to all video trainings/presentations from the Storm Prediction Center)

If you take out the #dpra you will see the full index of videos offered, and yes...you name it, they have a video training for it. The SPC does all training for severe weather analysis within the NOAA spectrum.



Thanks again Ref.

[parabrave]

Thanks Ref

[Uncle Ruckus]

So, where are we at now? Time? Most threatened locations?

[starkvegasdawg]

So, where are we at now? Time? Most threatened locations?

As of now most of MS is still under a moderate risk. There is going to be a morning round that may be marginally severe. When it clears out will determine the punch the second wave has when it fires up noon-2:00pm. When this one develops if it can stay discrete supercells then it will be a high end tornado event. If storm mode is messier then the tornado threat will still be more than present, but not to the degree it could be. The SPC updates at 1:00am and maybe learn some more then.

[RocketDawg]

For radar, I'd get RadarScope for your phone. The best $9.99 you will spend. Then if you want to get fancy you can upgrade to tier 1 for $9.99/year.

Is the basic RadarScope better than the free ones you get, like MyRadar and from television stations (many stations have their own radars also). They all show composites of the NEXRADS, where RS just shows one radar at a time. Does RS have better resolution or what is the advantage?

[starkvegasdawg]

Is the basic RadarScope better than the free ones you get, like MyRadar and from television stations (many stations have their own radars also). They all show composites of the NEXRADS, where RS just shows one radar at a time. Does RS have better resolution or what is the advantage?

RadarScope will show the warnings as well as velocity and the dual pol products. The one knock on RS is it does not do composite radar, but it's not that often that really comes into play.

[Uncle Ruckus]

What areas is the heavy stuff heading?

[starkvegasdawg]

What areas is the heavy stuff heading?

Still too early to know. My personal guess is areas north of I-20...maybe Highway 84.

[TheRef]

The next update from SPC is at 1 AM CT (06 ZULU). What I expect to see at this point is probably maintaining a Moderate (4/5) Risk category that may be slightly refined in area. The Day 1 outlook will provide us a good outlook on what we can expect. It seems that the models are in agreement about the fact that this will more than likely be a more linear system in the North end and a discrete cell system on the South end. However, the 00Z model runs should give a better idea (along with the high-res models that are extremely short range time-wise).

[ScoobaDawg]

Maintaining moderate . same for ms. extended farther ne in alabama into corner of ga.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVYcd4RUcAEDQSK?format=jpg&name=900x900


...ArkLaTex into the Southeast...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Initially, convection is expected to be ongoing across east TX this
morning, in association with a lead shortwave perturbation. Storm
mode may be messy with this area of convection as it spreads
east/northeast across northern LA/southern AR into northern MS and
the TN Valley vicinity. However, strong warm advection will bring
upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints as far north as I-20 by late
morning/middday, as a 50+ kt southwesterly low level jet overspreads
the lower MS Valley. As a result, any convection that is initially
elevated above a modest EML should quickly become surface based.
Additional convection is then expected to develop by early afternoon
as a weak cap erodes across central and southern MS along a
pre-frontal trough/confluence band. These storms will likely be more
classic semi-discrete supercells, and spread eastward into AL by
late afternoon, and northern GA during the evening. Large, curved
hodographs and deep, rich boundary layer moisture in intense
vertical shear will support long-lived supercells capable of
producing significant tornadoes. Overnight, there is some potential
for upscale growth into a LEWP/QLCS across eastern AL/GA into the FL
Panhandle. Damaging wind and mesovortex tornadoes are possible with
this convective mode as well.

[TheRef]

With SPC officially having this event as a Day 1 outlook, we will now get updates on this system from them every 6 hours or so. This also means that we are officially in the window for more...let's say technical....jargon being thrown around in discussions. We will try and decipher most of it into layman's terms. If you have any questions or concerns, I'll be in and out for the next 6 hours or so.

My biggest concerns may be realized if the SPC discussion is correct. The Lower MS valley is expected to get semi-discrete supercells that can pack a massive punch power-wise. These storms are expected to be through MS by mid to late afternoon. This means right when it's nice and warm, along with very humid, these cells will be feeding off of every bit of that energy. With that in mind, don't be surprised to see some of these cells pop off earlier (around midday). If the mid and low level instability continues to support development, all areas in the Moderate risk are well within the danger zone. Keep an eye out for updates and make sure your plans are in place. We will get through this together.

[runwildjerious]

Thanks for this Ref.

I live in Tuscaloosa, what are your thoughts as this moves into my area?

[TheRef]

Thanks for this Ref.

I live in Tuscaloosa, what are your thoughts as this moves into my area?

T-Town is definitely in the zone for this. I would say we are at Spann-CON suspenders visible level for today. Sleeves aren't quite rolled up yet, but they may be unbuttoned. But really, keep an eye on what happens in East MS near Meridian. If anything does head that way, it'll follow the same track as 2011. Now, for clarification, I'm not saying this will be another April 2011 event. I don't think anything for a while will compare to that. But make your preparations, get your plan together, and keep an eye and ear on the radio/tv/etc.

[ScoobaDawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVYglRGUMAEPYuM?format=jpg&name=medium

[TheRef]

Oh...wanted to make sure to add this. Tornadoes are NOT the only threat from this system. There will be considerable flash flooding and there will be high winds. How high? Can't really say but it'll be enough to destroy stuff. If you have anything planned outside for Easter, I'd reconsider if you're within the risk area. As always, pay attention to watches and warnings. Your local meteorologists and National Weather Service offices will have the best information.

[ScoobaDawg]

T-Town is definitely in the zone for this. I would say we are at Spann-CON suspenders visible level for today. Sleeves aren't quite rolled up yet, but they may be unbuttoned. But really, keep an eye on what happens in East MS near Meridian. If anything does head that way, it'll follow the same track as 2011. Now, for clarification, I'm not saying this will be another April 2011 event. I don't think anything for a while will compare to that. But make your preparations, get your plan together, and keep an eye and ear on the radio/tv/etc.

Will be interesting to see his thoughts in the morning on his daily video.
runwild.. stay safe.

[ScoobaDawg]

Oh...wanted to make sure to add this. Tornadoes are NOT the only threat from this system. There will be considerable flash flooding and there will be high winds. How high? Can't really say but it'll be enough to destroy stuff. If you have anything planned outside for Easter, I'd reconsider if you're within the risk area. As always, pay attention to watches and warnings. Your local meteorologists and National Weather Service offices will have the best information.

Good point Ref.. was going to post those images also

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_hail.gif

[TheRef]

So NWS Jackson just put out their forecast discussion for the area. Some interesting things were mentioned. So this will be a two-pronged attack by the system. The first will be in the morning and will consist of mostly some light to moderate showers. A few wind threats here and there from that system. However, the longer that sticks around, the less impactful the "main event" will be. Jackson has drawn a provisional line from Natchez, through Jackson, and onto Columbus. Their thinking is the highest threat is mainly North of this line. Now that's not to say that the Southern portion can't see some action, but it's not going to be the main threat here.

For you nerds who enjoy the numbers, EHI are predicted to be around 400 with a strong low-level shear we have a good chance of tornadic activity if everything lines up. The true cold front is expected to arrive around midnight and that's when the engine will be officially turned off for the area. This is going to be a long, drawn-out event. If you see a good amount of clear skies and sunlight, don't smile. That's not the best situation to be in. The more sunny skies you get, the more fuel is being added.

[RocketDawg]

So NWS Jackson just put out their forecast discussion for the area. Some interesting things were mentioned. So this will be a two-pronged attack by the system. The first will be in the morning and will consist of mostly some light to moderate showers. A few wind threats here and there from that system. However, the longer that sticks around, the less impactful the "main event" will be. Jackson has drawn a provisional line from Natchez, through Jackson, and onto Columbus. Their thinking is the highest threat is mainly North of this line. Now that's not to say that the Southern portion can't see some action, but it's not going to be the main threat here.

For you nerds who enjoy the numbers, EHI are predicted to be around 400 with a strong low-level shear we have a good chance of tornadic activity if everything lines up. The true cold front is expected to arrive around midnight and that's when the engine will be officially turned off for the area. This is going to be a long, drawn-out event. If you see a good amount of clear skies and sunlight, don't smile. That's not the best situation to be in. The more sunny skies you get, the more fuel is being added.

No sun here - yet. And looking at the cloud cover it doesn't look like it'll break up any time soon. There's a spot between B'ham and Huntsville that looks thinner, but otherwise clouds look solid over the entire southeastern quadrant

[starkvegasdawg]

Alternator in my truck looks to be shot. Got to scramble to see if I can get it replaced or my chase day is over before it starts.

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/1249334502171856901

[BeastMan]

How’s the Jackson metro looking today? The radar looks like the main stuff might go above us

[Bubb Rubb]

How’s the Jackson metro looking today? The radar looks like the main stuff might go above us

It's going to be stormy but the worst of this will go north of Jackson, I think. I would put Tupelo and Starkville in the cross hairs, and over in Northern Alabama, the worst case scenario is lining up.

[Harrydawg]

Thanks Bubb - I have son driving from Jackson to Starkville later today. What appears to be the timing on this event?

[parabrave]

Well the system is starting to get its act together. Tornado warnings and TStorm warnings in the arklatex moving down 20.

[parabrave]

If you have a chance go to Reed Timmer twit, He is streaming in Shreveport driving down 20.

[EngDawg]

SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion indicating 95% chance or watch issuance across MS.

Can one of the meteorologist on here confirm that the SPC seems to think that south MS will have the greatest threat from discrete cells where they think it will be mainly QLCS in North Central? I tried to decipher the discussion, but I?m not a weather guy by trade...

[ScoobaDawg]

STAY SAFE. PDS watch issued

The
@NWSSPC
has issued a Particuarly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch till 8PM. 90% chance of a tornado, while 80% chance of a significant tornado in the watch area.

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1249362167435935745

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1249364323924717569

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0106.html
SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
Northern and central Mississippi

* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1040 AM until
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Intense bowing line with a history of several tornadoes in
northwest Louisiana will progress rapidly east-northeast this
afternoon. Additional semi-discrete suprecells may develop ahead of
the line as well across parts of northern and central Mississippi.
Environment is supportive of several tornadoes, some of which will
likely be strong in addition to potential widespread damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Monroe LA
to 20 miles south of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

[Bubb Rubb]

Thanks Bubb - I have son driving from Jackson to Starkville later today. What appears to be the timing on this event?

Well, the PDS Watch is including Jackson, so you can't rule out serious stuff there. But I think it's going to get more dangerous as you go northeast from there. I think critical timing for the area is mid-afternoon.

I'd be really sick to my stomach right now if I lived in north/northcentral Alabama.

[shoeless joe]

Rain and thunder in golden triangle now. Is this the rain that could help prevent the worst case scenario? Or has that ship sailed?

[ScoobaDawg]

Well, the PDS Watch is including Jackson, so you can't rule out serious stuff there. But I think it's going to get more dangerous as you go northeast from there. I think critical timing for the area is mid-afternoon.

I'd be really sick to my stomach right now if I lived in north/northcentral Alabama.

I would not rule out jackson yet. the warm front continues to push north and clearing all the way up to yahzoo city right now. As the sun comes out, the instability will build up.


https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/1249375718393491458

[ScoobaDawg]

Rain and thunder in golden triangle now. Is this the rain that could help prevent the worst case scenario? Or has that ship sailed?

Possibly. as noted, depending on how long the skies clear allowing the atmosphere to build up.

[Bubb Rubb]

Possibly. as noted, depending on how long the skies clear allowing the atmosphere to build up.

Yeah, possibly, but we're not necessarily going to need clearing to rebuild the atmosphere. That warm sector pushing north is not going to need much help.

[ScoobaDawg]

Yeah, possibly, but we're not necessarily going to need clearing to rebuild the atmosphere. That warm sector pushing north is not going to need much help.

Watch the temps and dewpoint.

[Bubb Rubb]

Severe, severe damage in Monroe Louisiana. Wow, this is not good.

[TheRef]

Severe, severe damage in Monroe Louisiana. Wow, this is not good.

20 homes reporting damage so far in Monroe, LA

[ScoobaDawg]

Severe, severe damage in Monroe Louisiana. Wow, this is not good.

at least 20 houses down per this tweet. nasty looking debris balls represented on radar.

https://twitter.com/donowx/status/1249382166456385537

[parabrave]

Watch out Vicksburg and north of 20. Hey SVD looks like your favorite staging area N of VK is in line for the worst part.

[ScoobaDawg]

..nm last year

[TheRef]

Watch this cell just north of Canton that is crossing 55....it's got a nice inflow path and could present problems.

[Bubb Rubb]

https://twitter.com/FreshAir381/status/1140032027393253376

That is video of a tornado from last year.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

This appears to be going more north of Starkville than expected huh?

[msstate7]

Philadelphia/meridian area 5pm-6pm?

[TheRef]

This appears to be going more north of Starkville than expected huh?

Nope...right on track. Starkville very much in crosshairs

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1249384723962646528

[ScoobaDawg]

That is video of a tornado from last year.

Thanks. sorry. deleted.

[RocketDawg]

Well, the PDS Watch is including Jackson, so you can't rule out serious stuff there. But I think it's going to get more dangerous as you go northeast from there. I think critical timing for the area is mid-afternoon.

I'd be really sick to my stomach right now if I lived in north/northcentral Alabama.

Which, of course, is where I am .... And this area is historically sort of a tornado center of mass.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

Nope...right on track. Starkville very much in crosshairs

Damn my radar sucks ass then

[ScoobaDawg]

and it begins

https://twitter.com/severestudios/status/1249386041259114497

[TheRef]

Tornado WARNING for Sharkey and Issaquena Counties, including the city of Rolling Fork. This is a radar CONFIRMED tornado which means that the radar is signifying that this tornado is still on the ground due to a TDS being present.

[Tough Dawg]

Timing for the extreme bad stuff in Tupelo/Fulton, MS area? Thanks for what all you guys do.

[DownwardDawg]

I’m on 84 just west of Collins. Fortunately it has been very overcast all day. Hopefully that’ll help a little. We seem to get hammered all the time.

[ScoobaDawg]

watching these storms that just popped up in front closely
https://twitter.com/TrevorPicciano/status/1249390056072151042

[Bubb Rubb]

watching these storms that just popped up in front closely
https://twitter.com/TrevorPicciano/status/1249390056072151042

This is really what makes all of this a worst case scenario. Extreme instability supporting discrete supercell development out ahead of the QLCS. This is the kinda stuff that can rapidly develop and drop a large, long-tracked tornado in fifteen minutes.

[ScoobaDawg]

This is really what makes all of this a worst case scenario. Extreme instability supporting discrete supercell development out ahead of the QLCS. This is the kinda stuff that can rapidly develop and drop a large, long-tracked tornado in fifteen minutes.

exactly. the northern most of those storms has elongated and now has a severe tstorm warning on it. developing fast.

[ScoobaDawg]

another line developing down by lafayette. if keeping on this path would march towards mccomd then meridian possibly.
https://twitter.com/DrJoshWX/status/1249394170944532483

[Jeb Busch Lite]

Would y’all advice against traveling from Tupelo to Starkville today?

[ScoobaDawg]

yazoo city heads ups
https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1249399212892196867

[ScoobaDawg]

Would y’all advice against traveling from Tupelo to Starkville today?

Depends on the time.. sooner the better. and make sure you have a good place to be safe in starkville.

[ScoobaDawg]

dipping out for an hour. stay safe everyone

[ScoobaDawg]

pray for those in the path neat Yahzoo city.. debris picked up on radar
https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1249400989649690625

[Bubb Rubb]

pray for those in the path neat Yahzoo city.. debris picked up on radar
https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1249400989649690625

Looks like twin tornadoes west of Yazoo City.

[Bubb Rubb]

Hey Ref, it looks like the cap is hanging tough. What are your thoughts on when you'd expect to see it start to break down?

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

Once this storm passes by that is currently near Kosciusko, can we breath easier in North MS or is this going to be an event that continues through the day?

[Travelingdawg]

What?s the twitter handle for the chasers on the board. Thanks

[parabrave]

Streaming WCBI weather now.

[notsofarawaydawg]

What?s the twitter handle for the chasers on the board. Thanks
@nmscasstan

[TUSK]

I'm bout to get sssssssssssssssmoked!

Keep ya heads down, cats!!!

[parabrave]

Hope TUSK is hunkered down

[parabrave]

I'm bout to get sssssssssssssssmoked!

Keep ya heads down, cats!!!

Make sure you got your GoPro going. You should get some video that will make SVD jealous

[TUSK]

Make sure you got your GoPro going. You should get some video that will make SVD jealous

Yeah, it should be passing through shortly... I'll try to get some pics if it gets close enough...

[parabrave]

How close to pickensville are you?

[RocketDawg]

I'm bout to get sssssssssssssssmoked!

Keep ya heads down, cats!!!

Yep, it's heading right for you. Cantore just came on the Weather Channel and said looks like we're about to get into the long-track tornadoes that everybody's been talking about today.

Here in the north-central part of the state, haven't had much yet - a few minor thunderstorms have rolled through with about 3/4" rain. Temperatures are going up though so storms should be increasing.

[RocketDawg]

How close to pickensville are you?

I just heard Cantore say Pickensville. Isn't it just Pickens? Never heard of Pickensville.

[TUSK]

I just heard Cantore say Pickensville. Isn't it just Pickens? Never heard of Pickensville.

Pickensville is a river town in Pickens County, AL...

It's about 20 miles south of me.... I'm bout 45 miles east of Starkville...

[Cowbeller]

Anyone know when Starkville is supposed to get hit again tornado wise?

[DownwardDawg]

Shit got real here in Collins

[confucius say]

That thing by Collins is a freaking monster

[Bodawg]

Tornado emergency for Jones county.

[Bodawg]

This storm moving Jones county has a debris signature upwards 15,000 to 20,000 feet.

[Negative Waves]

This storm moving Jones county has a debris signature upwards 15,000 to 20,000 feet.

Another tornado just confirmed right behind the monster that passed through Bassfield. Following almost the first tornado?s path. Absolutely awful.

[Bodawg]

Another one coming at you Downward Dog!

[DownwardDawg]

Shit got real here in Collins

[DownwardDawg]

Another one coming at you Downward Dog!

Crap is falling from the sky into my yard!!!

[shoeless joe]

Commerce??? Anybody heard from him? How’s he makin it down there. Looks like they were rite near ground zero for 2 storms. Got a good many friends down that way and hopeful they were able to stay safe.

[RocketDawg]

That thing by Collins is a freaking monster

The Jackson MS NWS meantions "catastrophic" with that storm.

[RocketDawg]

The tornado watch in Alabama has been changed to a PDS watch for certain areas of central Ala, I think including B'ham.

[TheRef]

The tornado near Collins is going to be bad. Not only are you dealing with an extremely strong tornado, you're dealing with an extremely strong tornado going through a disaster area that was JUST hit by a different strong and violent tornado. This is worst case scenario for severe weather response. Hearing multiple people trapped near Seminary. Y'all stay safe and stay in your 17'n safe places until all of this is gone.

[RocketDawg]

Another tornado just confirmed right behind the monster that passed through Bassfield. Following almost the first tornado?s path. Absolutely awful.

TWC showing two tornadoes, the second going just north of Collins. The first one was just south. So probably 5 miles apart at most.

[RocketDawg]

The tornado near Collins is going to be bad. Not only are you dealing with an extremely strong tornado, you're dealing with an extremely strong tornado going through a disaster area that was JUST hit by a different strong and violent tornado. This is worst case scenario for severe weather response. Hearing multiple people trapped near Seminary. Y'all stay safe and stay in your 17'n safe places until all of this is gone.

Same thing happened here in 1974 -- F-5 followed very soon on the same track by another F-5. Thankfully that area then wasn't populated like it is now.

[RocketDawg]

Any reports from Heidelburg? It looked strong when it went through there. It's also going close to Soso, and it was hit by the first one.

[DownwardDawg]

TWC showing two tornadoes, the second going just north of Collins. The first one was just south. So probably 5 miles apart at most.

I think you’re about right. The first one dropped debris in my yard and the second one had me wearing a helmet and running my ass off into my safe place!!’

I’m west of Collins in Williamsburg.

[RocketDawg]

I think you’re about right. The first one dropped debris in my yard and the second one had me wearing a helmet and running my ass off into my safe place!!’

I’m west of Collins in Williamsburg.

That's way too close for comfort. Nothing here yet but thunderstorms, but warnings SW of Cullman and near Warrior (north of B'ham on 65). There was a debris ball for a while near Jasper.

[RocketDawg]

Any word from Commerce yet?

[Commercecomet24]

Guys just had 2 massive tornadoes pass through Jones county. We're ok but friends and relatives aren't! Dang 2020!

[TheRef]

Guys just had 2 massive tornadoes pass through Jones county. We're ok but friends and relatives aren't! Dang 2020!

Glad to hear you're okay.

[Commercecomet24]

Any word from Commerce yet?

I'm good thanks for checking brother! Hope the rest of that stuff coming from Louisiana don't get bad though!

[Commercecomet24]

Glad to hear you're okay.

Thanks I appreciate it! It's been devastating here. Getting lots of reports from friends that have lost their homes. Been a bad day brothers!

[dawgday166]

Thanks I appreciate it! It's been devastating here. Getting lots of reports from friends that have lost their homes. Been a bad day brothers!

Nobody hurt I hope. Very bad to lose your home tho.

[TheRef]

Confirmed fatality in Walthall County

[Commercecomet24]

Nobody hurt I hope. Very bad to lose your home tho.

Nobody That I know hurt yet but still waiting to hear from several families.

[Todd4State]

Guys just had 2 massive tornadoes pass through Jones county. We're ok but friends and relatives aren't! Dang 2020!

I'm thankful you're OK!

[RocketDawg]

I'm good thanks for checking brother! Hope the rest of that stuff coming from Louisiana don't get bad though!

Good to hear. Not sure exactly where you are but somewhere down in general area of Collins as I recall.

[TheRef]

Two fatalities in Lawrence County confirmed.

[Commercecomet24]

Good to hear. Not sure exactly where you are but somewhere down in general area of Collins as I recall.

Appreciate y'all checking on me. I live in NE Jones county. Shady Grove area.

[Bdawg]

Guys just had 2 massive tornadoes pass through Jones county. We're ok but friends and relatives aren't! Dang 2020!

Prayers for everyone bud.

[starkvegasdawg]

Back from my wiley adventures chasing. Due to issues with my truck we ended up chasing more locally and missed the monsters in south MS. We did catch the one near Brooksville. It didn't appear overly strong. Snapped some trees and power lines and flipped a semi in the road. But I managed to not get inside one this time so improvement. Prayers for those caught in those road graders in south MS. The one pictures I saw was surreal. Now to kick back and relax and then figure out what to do with the truck tomorrow.

[msstate7]

Is everything over now?

[TheRef]

At least two deaths reported in Jefferson Davis County

Correction: 3 deaths confirmed in Jeff-Davis County

[starkvegasdawg]

Just went back and looked at my video. I'm thinking I may have captured the tornado on the ground when it was snapping power poles. I see what looks like two power flashes at the base of where the tornado would be. I don't think they were lightning. I have a couple other people looking at it to get their opinion.

[RocketDawg]

Any pictures of the super tornado around Collins available yet? Vegas, can you post or link the picture you saw?

[TheRef]

https://twitter.com/aaronrigsbyosc/status/1249486601954177026?s=21

[parabrave]

Is everything over now?

Nope got more storms coming in from LA probably going to be tracking south of hattiesburg and north of Wiggins

[RocketDawg]

This time no one can complain about the forecast being a bust. They were pretty much dead on regarding the areal coverage. TWC just said 6 fatalities so far confirmed.

There are some storms in Arkansas heading east but it may or may not hold together.

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1249501004552421379

[Cooterpoot]

Damn that shit was close. Ended up with debris in my yard but it missed me. Got at least two relatives homes. It's bad! Real bad. Collins to Seminary area and SoSo are wiped out. Bassfield was wiped out too. First one was over a mile wide. Second wasn't as bad but but still bad. 17!

[Mjoelner34]

Any pictures of the super tornado around Collins available yet? Vegas, can you post or link the picture you saw?
Here it is around Soso
3190

ETA: That is from another chaser. Starkvegas and I were in the Macon/Brooksville area on that storm when the big one was around Bassfield.

[Mjoelner34]

Delete. Double post.

[RocketDawg]

Here it is around Soso
3190

Good heavens, that think is huge. I have a bad feeling that more fatalities will surface by morning.

[Cooterpoot]

https://www.facebook.com/talariakeys/videos/10222507729223226/

https://www.facebook.com/1084840577/posts/10220550272441855/?d=n

https://www.facebook.com/dorothy.ayyash.7/videos/696276334522744/

https://www.facebook.com/derek.smith.52831666/videos/3408756805819263/

[Mjoelner34]

Good heavens, that think is huge. I have a bad feeling that more fatalities will surface by morning.

6 confirmed so far. 3 Jeff Davis, 2 Lawrence and 1 in Walthall.

[DownwardDawg]

Guys just had 2 massive tornadoes pass through Jones county. We're ok but friends and relatives aren't! Dang 2020!

Great to hear you are ok. Let me know if I can help. I?m right down the road buddy.

[Mjoelner34]

18 wheeler overturned in the southbound lane of Hwy 45 along with snapped power poles and trees 4 miles south of Brooksville earlier. Photo quality is terrible because of heavy rain. As we got even with the truck, I rolled my window down to get a pic but was immediately drowned and my fingers were so wet the camera wouldn't operate.

3191

[TheRef]

Y'all check on your friends, family members, and neighbors. Get organized and volunteer when and where possible. Go through the proper channels. Let's show the rest of the world why the South shows some of the best of humanity when disasters strike. I'm grateful to hear such great news about members of this board, and my heart breaks for friends and family members who have had their lives forever changed by these storms. I love all y'all...seriously.

[DownwardDawg]

My son in law is breaking people out of homes that are trapped.

[Commercecomet24]

Great to hear you are ok. Let me know if I can help. I?m right down the road buddy.

Thanks so much! That means a lot, appreciate it! We're good but lot of my friends and my sons teammates at West Jones got hit hard and lost their homes. Thankfully everyone is ok but lot of homes gone or damaged severely. Sad day.

We'll be out helping folks dig out once this settles down.

[Commercecomet24]

My son in law is breaking people out of homes that are trapped.

Praying for his safety!

[Cooterpoot]

Going to be several more deaths. One in Jones and possibly another in Jasper Co.

[RocketDawg]

6 confirmed so far. 3 Jeff Davis, 2 Lawrence and 1 in Walthall.

TWC says now up to 7.

[RocketDawg]

18 wheeler overturned in the southbound lane of Hwy 45 along with snapped power poles and trees 4 miles south of Brooksville earlier. Photo quality is terrible because of heavy rain. As we got even with the truck, I rolled my window down to get a pic but was immediately drowned and my fingers were so wet the camera wouldn't operate.

3191

Refresh my memory - isn't Brooksville where Hwy 45 splits to go to Columbus and West Point? I used to drive that route frequently to Meridian but that was 50 years ago. :)

[Mjoelner34]

Refresh my memory - isn't Brooksville where Hwy 45 splits to go to Columbus and West Point? I used to drive that route frequently to Meridian but that was 50 years ago. :)

Yes. On the north side of Brooskville.

[DownwardDawg]

Wow. Areas right here at my house are destroyed. We got so lucky. I have video and will get out in the morning and take pics and videos. I may need help sharing the videos. I know how to post the pics but not the vids.

[DownwardDawg]

Praying for his safety!

Thanks brother.

[Mjoelner34]

Downward, did the one that went just north of Collins do as much damage as the one that went by the firetruck place? I heard the 2nd one went through the Ora and industrial park area.

[mparkerfd20]

Destroyed my in-laws and sister in laws houses in Collins. They live 2 miles from Ora Baptist Church on Sunset.. Thanking the good Lord they were spared. Just getting in from catching cows and mending a makeshift fence.

[yjnkdawg]

Radar image of debris distribution from Soso tornado into Clarke, Jasper and Newton counties.



https://twitter.com/joshmarthers/status/1249460417749016577

[msstate7]

So sad. As if this virus isn't weighing on us enough, some have to deal with losing everything now. Prayers for the victims

[yjnkdawg]

Our prayers are with all those who were affected by those damaging, devastating and killer storms yesterday, and those involved in the search and rescue operations. Also great to hear that you are OK and safe, CC. In the early stages I was scared that the second tornado was going to hit Jasper General Hospital and Summerland Manor Assisted Living in Bay Springs with a direct hit but it went to the south of those two facilities, and they had no damage.

[yjnkdawg]

That is the first time I have ever seen such a well defined tornado signature and debris ball, for both southern MS tornadoes. on my RadarScope Pro Tier 1 weather app with it on Hi-Res Velocity. Scary sight and I hope I never see anything like that again.

The following is what David Hartman, Chief Meteorologist, for WAPT in Jackson said:


David Hartman
@DHartman_WAPT
?
19h
On air but one of the worst tornado signatures I've seen in 35 years. CONCERNED

[Commercecomet24]

I appreciate y'all checking on me and for the thoughts and prayers. I feel blessed to know so many care. So much devastation here. West side of the county past West Jones is pretty much leveled and on into Jasper County. Have a friend that's a pilot and he went up today and videod the whole area, it looks like a bomb went off. We were fortunate but so many of my friends and family in Jones/Jasper county were not. It's heartbreaking to talk to them and see the pictures. We are already working on getting things cleaned up and donations for those affected. I'm a person of faith and ask that if you feel so inclined to offer up a quick word of prayer for all those affected. Once again thanks to all you Weather Dawgs on here who bring us such good info and help prepare for these storms, your work is invaluable.

[Commercecomet24]

Our prayers are with all those who were affected by those damaging, devastating and killer storms yesterday, and those involved in the search and rescue operations. Also great to hear that you are OK and safe, CC. In the early stages I was scared that the second tornado was going to hit Jasper General Hospital and Summerland Manor Assisted Living in Bay Springs with a direct hit but it went to the south of those two facilities, and they had no damage.

On a side note, I was born at Jasper General and both my maternal Grandparents passed away there. I'm good friends with many of the staff there and so glad they were spared.

[parabrave]

I appreciate y'all checking on me and for the thoughts and prayers. I feel blessed to know so many care. So much devastation here. West side of the county past West Jones is pretty much leveled and on into Jasper County. Have a friend that's a pilot and he went up today and videod the whole area, it looks like a bomb went off. We were fortunate but so many of my friends and family in Jones/Jasper county were not. It's heartbreaking to talk to them and see the pictures. We are already working on getting things cleaned up and donations for those affected. I'm a person of faith and ask that if you feel so inclined to offer up a quick word of prayer for all those affected. Once again thanks to all you Weather Dawgs on here who bring us such good info and help prepare for these storms, your work is invaluable.

Was Summerland hit. It looked like the path of the 2nd T went right over the Summerland Baptist church. Old GF and her family grew up right south of there.

[Commercecomet24]

Was Summerland hit. It looked like the path of the 2nd T went right over the Summerland Baptist church. Old GF and her family grew up right south of there.

I have a friend that lives a mile from Summerland Baptist and I have tried reaching him since last night and haven't heard from him, so I'm not sure how much damage is there. I pray that he's ok. Yeah that track went right over Summerland.

[yjnkdawg]

In reference to damage to the Summerland Community (in Smith County) I hadn't heard anything from there either.

Smith County Emergency Management
1 hr ?

We are out completing damage assessments this morning in the Summerland area. If you would like to submit your assessment yourself, please click on the link below and submit. We are trying to make our way around. We haven’t forgot about you, please have patience it’s a slow process.


https://www.facebook.com/scemams/

[parabrave]

In reference to damage to the Summerland Community (in Smith County) I hadn't heard anything from there either.

Smith County Emergency Management
1 hr ?

We are out completing damage assessments this morning in the Summerland area. If you would like to submit your assessment yourself, please click on the link below and submit. We are trying to make our way around. We haven’t forgot about you, please have patience it’s a slow process.


https://www.facebook.com/scemams/

Thanks

[Cooterpoot]

Haven't seen any bad damage in Summerland are. Just trees down. 2nd one wasn't on the ground the whole time. Cold Springs, Kola, and Willow Grove ares around Collins/Seminary are wiped off the map in places. SoSo area too.

[parabrave]

LiveStreamMedia has videos in the Tube of the damage

[DownwardDawg]

Downward, did the one that went just north of Collins do as much damage as the one that went by the firetruck place? I heard the 2nd one went through the Ora and industrial park area.

It devastated everything in its path, but looks to be smaller in diameter as far as the damage path

[DownwardDawg]

https://i.postimg.cc/05JS97DR/266-F21-EF-85-DA-4421-9661-81-E0516-F9-AB4.png

This is the 2nd tornado. This is the southeast edge of the storm.

[Cooterpoot]

Downward, did it do much damage around the two Salem roads above Collins? I've got place up there.

[RocketDawg]

Has the NWS rated the storms yet?

[starkvegasdawg]

Has the NWS rated the storms yet?

They have some but not all yet.

[starkvegasdawg]

Need to keep in mind we're just now entering the peak of our severe weather season. Climatologically, the most active tornado day for MS is 4/27. For tornadoes have occurred on this day in MS on this day of the year than any other. Looking at the long range models, there are already some grumblings of the next event(s), but due to being so far out and lack of model consistency that's about all I want to mention. Just know for the next 3-4 weeks all approaching storm systems will be watched through the lens of their severe potential.

[DownwardDawg]

Downward, did it do much damage around the two Salem roads above Collins? I've got place up there.

If you’re referring to Salem School and Salem Church, I think you should be fine. I think they would have got split by the storms just like I did. The northern most storm, the one that almost got me might have hit those roads but it depends on how far north of 84 your place is. It crosses 84 well below Mt Olive. I’d say a mile north of Covington County Supply. Send me a PM if you want to know more. I’ll go take pics or do a check for you if you’d like.

[Cooterpoot]

I went up there yesterday late. That area above Collins was bad enough but damn that area between 588 and Seminary (as far as I could go) was total devastation. There's about a 1 mile wide path of just destruction and another mile of debris The one above Collins had about a half mile wide path with another half mile of debris and minor damage.
Saw where a friend found pictures and clothes in his yard from the tornado and he was close to 20 miles from it.

[DownwardDawg]

I went up there yesterday late. That area above Collins was bad enough but damn that area between 588 and Seminary (as far as I could go) was total devastation. There's about a 1 mile wide path of just destruction and another mile of debris The one above Collins had about a half mile wide path with another half mile of debris and minor damage.
Saw where a friend found pictures and clothes in his yard from the tornado and he was close to 20 miles from it.

We’ve been helping a friend this morning. We just took a drive and took some video. Gonna put it on my son’s YouTube channel later. I’ll post links here.

[DownwardDawg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2drQ92LGkQ&feature=share

This is the first storm.

[Commercecomet24]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2drQ92LGkQ&feature=share

This is the first storm.

Man, seeing all this here in Jones County and the videos/pics from all the other areas affected just brings tears to my eyes! People are hurting in our little communties and its heartbreaking and my thoughts and prayers go out to all those affected! Downward y'all doing ok over there?

[DownwardDawg]

Man, seeing all this here in Jones County and the videos/pics from all the other areas affected just brings tears to my eyes! People are hurting in our little communties and its heartbreaking and my thoughts and prayers go out to all those affected! Downward y'all doing ok over there?

Man there is a lot of hurt here, but my family is doing great. We were so fortunate and just counting our blessings. You need anything brother?

[Commercecomet24]

Man there is a lot of hurt here, but my family is doing great. We were so fortunate and just counting our blessings. You need anything brother?

Same here. Been helping and consoling a lot of friends here the last couple of days. We were fortunate it went just to the west of us. We're good, appreciate you asking. If I can help in any way just holler.

[parabrave]

Did the 1st one actually hit seminary or hit north of it?

[DownwardDawg]

Did the 1st one actually hit seminary or hit north of it?

Just north of it.

[parabrave]

There is a website that gives an overlay of the Tornadoes path. I can't remember what it is. SVD or Ref do you know where I can find it?

[starkvegasdawg]

There is a website that gives an overlay of the Tornadoes path. I can't remember what it is. SVD or Ref do you know where I can find it?

The Jackson NWS office has them on their twitter page now and usually will upload them to their website when it's all said and done.

[starkvegasdawg]

I know the one Mjoelner and I were on between Macon and Brooksville ended up being an 1,100 yard wide EF-2 with 125mph winds.

[parabrave]

The Jackson NWS office has them on their twitter page now and usually will upload them to their website when it's all said and done.

Just saw it. Dam 2 mile wide tornado.