Bubble watch

[msstate7]

NC State at Duke - go duke

Maybe we can keep this on front page, and give updates on who to pull for

[chef dixon]

We are in a weird position. We just haven't had any games down the stretch that can catapult us to in. Its basically just rack up as many wins as possible and then watch the selection show and hope its enough. Even at 12-6 in the league we are going to be squarely on the bubble. A lot of bubble teams have been getting big wins recently.

[confucius say]

Need richmond, Rhode Island, Stanford, which state to lose too

[BrunswickDawg]

We are a game back of 2nd with 2 to play. Do we root for AU, LSU & UF to lose - or does that hurt us as much as help with the metrics being what they are?
AU has A&m and @UT
LSU has @Arkansas and UGA
UF has @UGA and UK

All 4 of us (AU, LSU, UF, MSU) have losing records on the road in SEC play

[basedog]

We are a game back of 2nd with 2 to play. Do we root for AU, LSU & UF to lose - or does that hurt us as much as help with the metrics being what they are?
AU has A&m and @UT
LSU has @Arkansas and UGA
UF has @UGA and UK

All 4 of us (AU, LSU, UF, MSU) have losing records on the road in SEC play

Au and Lsu will most likely win out.

[msudawglb]

We are in a weird position. We just haven't had any games down the stretch that can catapult us to in. Its basically just rack up as many wins as possible and then watch the selection show and hope its enough. Even at 12-6 in the league we are going to be squarely on the bubble. A lot of bubble teams have been getting big wins recently.

We went in the opposite direction....we were in, but we had a game that catapulted us out....the beat down by Mississippi.

[Saltydog]

Even if we win out I don't see us getting in unless there are no surprises in a lot of these conference tourneys. Our net is 52 and in the RPI we only have two Q1 wins and 3 Q3 losses. We may get lucky but I don't see it happening.

[MaroonFlounder]

NC State at Duke - go duke

Maybe we can keep this on front page, and give updates on who to pull for

Screw that. I want this team to keep thinking they have to win out. They only seem to play their best when their backs are against the wall.

[msstate7]

Even if we win out I don't see us getting in unless there are no surprises in a lot of these conference tourneys. Our net is 52 and in the RPI we only have two Q1 wins and 3 Q3 losses. We may get lucky but I don't see it happening.

South Carolina win would be Q1

[msstate7]

Screw that. I want this team to keep thinking they have to win out. They only seem to play their best when their backs are against the wall.

What you talking about? Just us winning out doesn't guarantee anything... well unless you talking about SECT which is gonna be extremely difficult

[confucius say]

Even if we win out I don't see us getting in unless there are no surprises in a lot of these conference tourneys. Our net is 52 and in the RPI we only have two Q1 wins and 3 Q3 losses. We may get lucky but I don't see it happening.

If we win out we will have 3 quad one wins.

In the net we are 52 with only two Q3 losses.

In the rpi we do have three Q3 losses true, but we are 46.

[MaroonFlounder]

What you talking about? Just us winning out doesn't guarantee anything... well unless you talking about SECT which is gonna be extremely difficult

Do they understand that their resume' is not NCAA-worthy? Or are they looking at their SEC rank and think they will be the 4th team in? Not sure about that or Coach Howland's ability to motivate these days.

[JPdog]

If we win these next two, we will be in. I think an important thing to remember is that Joe Lunardi is not the Selection Committee. Jerry Palm (CBS bracket guy) has us as the first team out right now. Get a Q1 win on Tuesday night and hold serve Saturday at home, and I see no way they leave out a 12-6 SEC team with a top 4 finish and double bye in the conference tournament. Beat Florida in the first round of the SECT and we likely aren't in the First Four.

[confucius say]

If we win these next two, we will be in. I think an important thing to remember is that Joe Lunardi is not the Selection Committee. Jerry Palm (CBS bracket guy) has us as the first team out right now. Get a Q1 win on Tuesday night and hold serve Saturday at home, and I see no way they leave out a 12-6 SEC team with a top 4 finish and double bye in the conference tournament. Beat Florida in the first round of the SECT and we likely aren't in the First Four.

This is where I am. Just win out and we are on right side of bubble going to sec tourney.

[gtowndawg]

We went in the opposite direction....we were in, but we had a game that catapulted us out....the beat down by Mississippi.

That was the killer, no doubt.

[dantheman4248]

Either need to win these two games + one in the SECT or win the SECT altogether to make it. Other bubble teams aren't to worry about. Just need to take care of business ourselves.

The one thing that college basketball definitely gets right is that you control your own destiny always.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

If we win out we will have 3 quad one wins.

In the net we are 52 with only two Q3 losses.

In the rpi we do have three Q3 losses true, but we are 46.

You do that & the 1st SEC tourney game is likely Florida which would be another Quad 1 opportunity. Win those 3 & you're in for sure.

[gtowndawg]

The one thing that college basketball definitely gets right is that you control your own destiny always.

True and good point.

[Coach34]

If we win the next 3 games we are in

[State82]

Let us assume we split this week. Does getting to Sunday in the conference tourney get us in? Thoughts?

[msstate7]

Duke and NCSU tied at 40

Really don't need NCSU locking up a spot tonight

[Coach34]

Let us assume we split this week. Does getting to Sunday in the conference tourney get us in? Thoughts?

If we split? Probably have to make it to Sunday

[CrookedLetta]

Regarding the tournament, this is all dependent upon who we play. If we play and beat a Quad 1 team, we move up. If we play and beat a Quad 2 team, we potentially stay the same.

[msstate7]

Regarding the tournament, this is all dependent upon who we play. If we play and beat a Quad 1 team, we move up. If we play and beat a Quad 2 team, we potentially stay the same.
And it also depends on who others win against/lose to

[smootness]

This is an inexact science. There is no guarantee for us at this point short of the auto bid. No one knows anything, including those making definitive statements about what gets us in.

[msstate7]

Duke appears to have this game in control now.

[msstate7]

South Carolina -2

[DawgBone]

So I went back and did some research, using only last years tournament for reference since it was the first year the NCAA went to the NET formula. I?m not 100% certain on what teams were bubble teams at the end of the year, but I did the best I could.

Bubble teams to miss tournament
NC State- NET-33, Record- 22-11, Q1- 3-9
Clemson- NET-35, Record- 19-13, Q1- 1-10
Texas- NET-38, Record- 16-16, Q1- 5-10 (a team very similar to Purdue this year)
Furman- NET-41, Record- 22-7, Q1- 1-5 (Terrible SOS)
Memphis- NET-46, Record- 21-13, Q1- 2-9
TCU- NET-52, Record- 20-13, Q1-3-9 (similar resume to ours this year, except they went 7-11 in conference)

Teams to make the tournament with an at-large bid
Arizona St(last 4 in, play in game)- NET-63, Record- 22-10, Q1 3-3(the lowest rated NET in tournament to grab an at-large bid)
Minnesota- NET-61, Record- 21-13, Q1 5-9
Seton Hall- NET-57, Record- 20-13, Q1- 7-8
Ohio State- NET-55, Record- 19-14, Q1- 4-10 (their 57% win % is one of the lowest to get an at-large, Florida 56%) (No team has ever received an at-large below 53%)
Temple(last 4 in, play in game)- NET- 56, Record 23-9, Q1- 2-6
Belmont(last 4 in, play in game)- NET- 47, Record- 25-5, Q1-2-2
St. Johns(last 4 in, play in game)- NET-73, Record- 21-12, Q1- 5-7

St. Johns is probably the biggest head scratcher here, other than their 5 Q1 wins, their Non Conf. SOS was 197. They went 4-6 down the stretch and 2-2 vs Q1 teams. The Big East was down last year and only got 4 teams in. I just don?t understand how they got in.
I felt like NC State probably deserved a bid over ASU
Ohio State went 3-7 down the stretch and didn?t have a single Q1 win in their final 10 games(5 opportunities)
Temple only played 1 Q1 game their last 10 games
Belmont played 1 Q3 game, 8 Q4 games and 1 Q1 game.
8 teams with a NET rating of 45 and below earned an at-large last year
10 teams with a NET of 46-73 failed to receive an at-large(didn?t count teams with losing records, zero Q1 wins or obvious non-tourney teams)

[klong-dog]

I give us about a 40% chance in Columbia. We need this one so bad.

[confucius say]

So I went back and did some research, using only last years tournament for reference since it was the first year the NCAA went to the NET formula. I?m not 100% certain on what teams were bubble teams at the end of the year, but I did the best I could.

Bubble teams to miss tournament
NC State- NET-33, Record- 22-11, Q1- 3-9
Clemson- NET-35, Record- 19-13, Q1- 1-10
Texas- NET-38, Record- 16-16, Q1- 5-10 (a team very similar to Purdue this year)
Furman- NET-41, Record- 22-7, Q1- 1-5 (Terrible SOS)
Memphis- NET-46, Record- 21-13, Q1- 2-9
TCU- NET-52, Record- 20-13, Q1-3-9 (similar resume to ours this year, except they went 7-11 in conference)

Teams to make the tournament with an at-large bid
Arizona St(last 4 in, play in game)- NET-63, Record- 22-10, Q1 3-3(the lowest rated NET in tournament to grab an at-large bid)
Minnesota- NET-61, Record- 21-13, Q1 5-9
Seton Hall- NET-57, Record- 20-13, Q1- 7-8
Ohio State- NET-55, Record- 19-14, Q1- 4-10 (their 57% win % is one of the lowest to get an at-large, Florida 56%) (No team has ever received an at-large below 53%)
Temple(last 4 in, play in game)- NET- 56, Record 23-9, Q1- 2-6
Belmont(last 4 in, play in game)- NET- 47, Record- 25-5, Q1-2-2
St. Johns(last 4 in, play in game)- NET-73, Record- 21-12, Q1- 5-7

St. Johns is probably the biggest head scratcher here, other than their 5 Q1 wins, their Non Conf. SOS was 197. They went 4-6 down the stretch and 2-2 vs Q1 teams. The Big East was down last year and only got 4 teams in. I just don?t understand how they got in.
I felt like NC State probably deserved a bid over ASU
Ohio State went 3-7 down the stretch and didn?t have a single Q1 win in their final 10 games(5 opportunities)
Temple only played 1 Q1 game their last 10 games
Belmont played 1 Q3 game, 8 Q4 games and 1 Q1 game.
8 teams with a NET rating of 45 and below earned an at-large last year
10 teams with a NET of 46-73 failed to receive an at-large(didn?t count teams with losing records, zero Q1 wins or obvious non-tourney teams)

Good stuff. Hard to find a common denominator among teams that got in vs teams that didn't.

I still believe if we get to 12-6 and fourth in the league (or better) we are going to get in. Winning one in Nashville would seal it.

[confucius say]

Lunardi has us third team out now. With Cincinnati the last team in and bc state and Tex ahead of us. All three of those have worse nets than us right now.

[notoriousdog]

Bubble teams to miss tournament
NC State- NET-33, Record- 22-11, Q1- 3-9
Clemson- NET-35, Record- 19-13, Q1- 1-10
Texas- NET-38, Record- 16-16, Q1- 5-10 (a team very similar to Purdue this year)
Furman- NET-41, Record- 22-7, Q1- 1-5 (Terrible SOS)
Memphis- NET-46, Record- 21-13, Q1- 2-9
TCU- NET-52, Record- 20-13, Q1-3-9 (similar resume to ours this year, except they went 7-11 in conference)

Teams to make the tournament with an at-large bid
Arizona St(last 4 in, play in game)- NET-63, Record- 22-10, Q1 3-3(the lowest rated NET in tournament to grab an at-large bid)
Minnesota- NET-61, Record- 21-13, Q1 5-9
Seton Hall- NET-57, Record- 20-13, Q1- 7-8
Ohio State- NET-55, Record- 19-14, Q1- 4-10 (their 57% win % is one of the lowest to get an at-large, Florida 56%) (No team has ever received an at-large below 53%)
Temple(last 4 in, play in game)- NET- 56, Record 23-9, Q1- 2-6
Belmont(last 4 in, play in game)- NET- 47, Record- 25-5, Q1-2-2
St. Johns(last 4 in, play in game)- NET-73, Record- 21-12, Q1- 5-7

St. Johns is probably the biggest head scratcher here, other than their 5 Q1 wins, their Non Conf. SOS was 197. They went 4-6 down the stretch and 2-2 vs Q1 teams. The Big East was down last year and only got 4 teams in. I just don?t understand how they got in.
I felt like NC State probably deserved a bid over ASU
Ohio State went 3-7 down the stretch and didn?t have a single Q1 win in their final 10 games(5 opportunities)
Temple only played 1 Q1 game their last 10 games
Belmont played 1 Q3 game, 8 Q4 games and 1 Q1 game.
8 teams with a NET rating of 45 and below earned an at-large last year
10 teams with a NET of 46-73 failed to receive an at-large(didn?t count teams with losing records, zero Q1 wins or obvious non-tourney teams)

Excellent info! I agree that St. John's and Temple were weird ones last year.

NC State was punished for their Non-Conf SOS -- 340. Something that the committee has consistently rewarded/punished teams for over the years. They also had an RPI of 83 which makes me wonder if some committee members were still leaning on that metric.

Q1 wins: St. John's 5 > NC State 3
Non-Conf SOS: St. John's 197 > NC State 340

These two appear to be big factors.

Ohio State vs TCU: OSU had a similar NET (55 vs 52) and SOS (34 vs 35). The non-conf SOS (82 vs 99) appears to have given them the edge over TCU.

Temple's NET was similar to all of the bubble teams, but they had less Q1 wins than pretty much all. Their trump card? A win over NET #4 Houston. They had the best win on their resume of all the bubble teams. Also, they had an RPI of 36 and a conf record of 13-5. Once again-- are committee members still leaning on RPI?