Fall Ball Batting Leaders

[Will James]

Going with wOBA+. Basically its wOBA/team wOBA *100

ELITE
Heck - 133
Pirtle - 127
Walker - 129
Collins - 125
Britton - 120

Starter
Humphries - 111
Vickerson - 108
Ingram - 103
Rea - 101
Detz - 101
Armstrong - 100

Below Team Average
Garner - 96
Henderson - 93
Hann - 86
Randolph - 86
Brown - 84
Bradford - 76
Rooker - 72
Swarinski - 66

The amount above or below 100 is their output above/below team average

[Jacksondevildog]

You gotta figure that Henderson and CT will start (early on) in the outfield, due to experience. Henderson started to come on late last year when he stopped hitting fungos to the second baseman.

[bully99]

I noticed Joey Swanarski didn't play the last couple of days. Is he injured, sick?

[ShotgunDawg]

This is outstanding Will, very nice job.

[Will James]

Attempted to adjust for BABIP with problems so the wOBA+ are not adjusted for BABIP. Some high/low BABIP's are

Humphries .625
Britton .500
Walker .500
Heck .435
Armstrong .429

Rooker .227
Rea .231
Randolph .231
Hann .263
Brown .269
Vickerson .292
Garner .286
Swarinski .294

Obviously BABIP isn't everything but just a thought for those at the extremes where regression WILL happen. For reference, the team BABIP last season AND so far this fall is right around .340. Last spring's high BABIP was Frazier at .381 and low was Ammirati's .278. So use those two to think about where everyone should fall into place.

[Dawg61]

How bout some good old fashioned batting average, RBI, HR, R and ob%? Not everybody is or likes Brian Kenny WJ. Thanks

[messageboardsuperhero]

Very encouraged with where Heck, Walker, and Britton are. Obviously it helps them all having extremely high BABIPs and small sample sizes, but it's good to see them putting balls in play hard.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Wes Rea has definitely been the victim of some bad luck. He's had two home runs robbed and has a very low BABIP.

Really really good stuff Will. Appreciate it. This gives us a little taste of what to expect in the spring.

[smootness]

I appreciate the work, but this isn't one of the times where wOBA is very helpful. I'd much prefer someone just list H/AB, how many 2B, HR, etc., how many Ks, BBs, and I can just figure it out myself.

Obviously I'm not demanding anyone do that for me, just that I think that info would be even more useful with a sample size this small.

[Will James]

The only low hitter of note without a low BABIP is CT. CT has an ABOVE TEAM AVERAGE BABIP of .351!

Bradford's issue is that he has just ONE walk and ZERO HBP in 46 plate appearances, team low 2% BB rate.

[Will James]

How bout some good old fashioned batting average, RBI, HR, R and ob%? Not everybody is or likes Brian Kenny WJ. Thanks

The first four are meaningless but here's your OBP.



Heck, S.
0.558


Walker, C.
0.556


Pirtle, B.
0.543


Britton, M.
0.512


Collins, G.
0.500


Vickerson, J.
0.475


Humphreys, R.
0.472


Rea, W.
0.422


Ingram, D.
0.417


Detz, A.
0.413


Henderson, D.
0.409


Armstrong, D.
0.405


Hann, K.
0.385


Randolph, Z.
0.378


Garner, D.
0.372


Brown, C.
0.357


Rooker, B.
0.316


Bradford, C
0.304


Robson, J.
0.286


Swinarski, J.
0.259

[Dawg61]

Thanks, hits and atbats? I'll do the math myself

[Will James]

Thanks, hits and atbats? I'll do the math myself

Batting Average............ Dunno why but here you go. And K% and BB%



Name
BA
BB%
K%


Walker, C.
0.385
17.9%
15.4%


Heck, S.
0.379
18.2%
13.6%


Britton, M.
0.375
16.3%
18.6%


Collins, G.
0.375
15.0%
15.0%


Pirtle, B.
0.360
22.2%
2.8%


Humphreys, R.
0.345
16.2%
35.1%


Armstrong, D.
0.333
7.1%
21.4%


Detz, A.
0.308
15.2%
10.9%


Henderson, D.
0.294
17.4%
8.7%


Bradford, C
0.289
2.2%
17.4%


Garner, D.
0.270
14.0%
16.3%


Ingram, D.
0.259
16.7%
19.4%


Vickerson, J.
0.250
23.8%
9.5%


Rea, W.
0.219
24.4%
13.3%


Randolph, Z.
0.207
18.9%
8.1%


Brown, C.
0.206
13.6%
18.2%


Swinarski, J.
0.200
3.4%
27.6%


Hann, K.
0.172
23.1%
25.6%


Rooker, B.
0.161
7.9%
23.7%


Robson, J.
0.000
28.6%
28.6%

[smootness]

Those stats aren't meaningless. They're not as good at predicting future behavior as once believed, and RBI and R especially are obviously dependent on batting order, quality of teammates, etc.; but they're still records of what actually took place.

And OBP, as you know, is mostly dependent on BA.

I agree with a lot of your takes on baseball, and I am a believer in sabermetrics to a large degree, but sometimes people take it too far. Like with batting average, for example. It may be rudimentary and not the be-all, end-all it was once thought to be, but it is still an important stat that means something.

[Dawg61]

Because I played a lot of baseball and I can tell a lot by avg no matter how many times you tell me it's stupid. Consider it like the eye test. I guarantee you Wes Rea isn't so happy to be hitting .220. He'd tell you he is hitting like shit. I'd agree with him. You'll just try to hide that with his OB%.

[Will James]

Those stats aren't meaningless. They're not as good at predicting future behavior as once believed, and RBI and R especially are obviously dependent on batting order, quality of teammates, etc.; but they're still records of what actually took place.

And OBP, as you know, is mostly dependent on BA.

I agree with a lot of your takes on baseball, and I am a believer in sabermetrics to a large degree, but sometimes people take it too far. Like with batting average, for example. It may be rudimentary and not the be-all, end-all it was once thought to be, but it is still an important stat that means something.

Obviously every stat means SOMETHING but when there are known better indicators of hitting, why bother with batting average at all? Like pitcher wins. Not "meaningLESS" but with better indicators it's kind of a "why bother" situation.

CT is "batting" .289 this fall. Jake Vickerson is "batting" .250. Yet Vickerson has been a much better hitter.

[Will James]

2013 wOBA+ leaders and BB%



Name
wOBA+
BB%


Renfroe
125
11.5%


Detz
114
17.4%


Frazier
107
6.8%


Rea
106
10.2%


Pirtle
105
7.3%


Frost
100
10.9%


Slauter
98
12.5%


Bradford
91
7.7%


Henderson
90
9.9%


Armstrong
89
10.7%


Porter
85
7.7%


Norris
83
11.4%


Ammirati
82
8.0%


Hann
79
8.1%


Robson
74
9.5%

[Todd4State]

Every stat says something- but it's up to the person to figure out what it's saying and how to apply it. I think batting average is useful. The percentage of time a player actually gets a hit? That seems like something that would be good to know. It doesn't tell the entire story about a player, but it's a stretch at best to say "why bother" with it. Just because someone came up with it in 1880 or whatever it doesn't make it a bad stat.

The funny thing to me is if Bill James or someone came up with batting average, wins for pitchers, or whatever in 1984- a lot of the hard core sabermetrics people would be talking about those stats like they do BABIP or OBS. And if they had been using OBS and WHIP in 1880, the sabermetric people would be telling baseball fans that they were meaningless outdated stats.

[Will James]

The funny thing to me is if Bill James or someone came up with batting average, wins for pitchers, or whatever in 1984- a lot of the hard core sabermetrics people would be talking about those stats like they do BABIP or OBS. And if they had been using OBS and WHIP in 1880, the sabermetric people would be telling baseball fans that they were meaningless outdated stats.

Well, I disagree. The whole point is advancement of knowledge. Pitcher wins actually meant more back then when every game was a CG. It's still not a stat though, but a result. Like R and RBI. Dependent on other things.

[Will James]

The percentage of time a player actually gets a hit? That seems like something that would be good to know.

If you think so, explain why. Why keep up with BA when OBP and moreso, wOBA with weights adjusted to each outcome, are available?

BA assumes a single is equal to a HR. It also gives no importance to walks. Why is it useful?

[Dawg61]

If you think so, explain why. Why keep up with BA when OBP and moreso, wOBA with weights adjusted to each outcome, are available?

BA assumes a single is equal to a HR. It also gives no importance to walks. Why is it useful?

Getting hits is a skill. That's why. It's like a 3 point% for a basketball player.

[Will James]

Getting hits is a skill. That's why. It's like a 3 point% for a basketball player.

Torii Hunter - .304
Paul Goldschmidt - .302

Who was better, and how do you know?

Chris Johnson - .321
Chris Davis - .286
Edwin Encarnacion - .271
Evan Longoria - .269

Drawing walks is a skill as well btw. *This shit helped my second half run*

[Coach34]

My boy Britton is finally coming around. I knew he could play

[Todd4State]

Well, I disagree. The whole point is advancement of knowledge. Pitcher wins actually meant more back then when every game was a CG. It's still not a stat though, but a result. Like R and RBI. Dependent on other things.

Sabermetrics has advanced knowledge, and that's a good thing. But just because there is new knowledge, it doesn't mean that the old knowledge is useless, not any good- whatever word you want to use. I think if you put old and new together, that's how you get an even more complete knowledge and better view. I also think it's silly for people to say that the new sabermetric stats are worthless as well. It can go both ways.

All stats are a result of something. Baseball is not played in a vacuum or in controlled situations. Sometimes you play somewhere like Fenway Park that is more of a hitter's park with a weird outfield and it provides the Red Sox with an advantage. But that's all part of it.

Pitcher wins means something to me- is a guy good enough to get a quality start (which is relevant today with starting pitchers) and pitch well enough to keep his team in the game long enough to win. Now, it's not something that I solely judge every pitcher on- but it says something.

[Will James]

Better set of top pitchers.....

Wins?
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

or xFIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,a

Lance Lynn 15 wins
King Felix 13 wins

Nuff said

[Will James]

My boy Britton is finally coming around. I knew he could play

Competition for those IF spots will be fierce

[Todd4State]

If you think so, explain why. Why keep up with BA when OBP and moreso, wOBA with weights adjusted to each outcome, are available?

BA assumes a single is equal to a HR. It also gives no importance to walks. Why is it useful?

Because it tells you the percentage of times a guy is likely to get a hit. (DUH) I think it's a good stat in tandem with OBP because if you have both, you kind of have an idea of how often a guy is likely to get a hit as well as the likelihood of getting on base. OBP kind of lumps it all together, but batting average kind of breaks it down a little bit so you can tell how much of the OBP is an actual hit and how much is getting on by other means.

[CadaverDawg]

My boy Britton is finally coming around. I knew he could play

Indeed. I hope he has a coming out party this year

[Dawg61]

Torii Hunter - .304
Paul Goldschmidt - .302

Who was better, and how do you know?

Chris Johnson - .321
Chris Davis - .286
Edwin Encarnacion - .271
Evan Longoria - .269

Drawing walks is a skill as well btw. *This shit helped my second half run*

*This shit also killed your playoff run*

[Will James]

*This shit also killed your playoff run*

Bad luck

[Todd4State]

Better set of top pitchers.....

Wins?
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

or xFIP
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,a

Lance Lynn 15 wins
King Felix 13 wins

Nuff said

So, you're saying that Matt Harvey was the best pitcher in baseball last year? And if you think that you are going to play the Lance Lynn card on me after I spent all season proclaiming that he sucked after you tried to convince me that he was not all that bad with sabermetrics- you have another thing coming.

Let me ask you this- which one of the two between Lynn and Felix was on a better team? Were both able to amass a fair amount of quality starts and is that valuable in today's game?

And please- if we're going to talk about indicators as to whom the top pitcher's in the game are- let's just go straight to WAR and agree on which version of WAR we are using so we'll be on the same page as opposed to using pitcher win or FIP which takes the defense out as if that's not an important part of the game.

[Todd4State]

Torii Hunter - .304
Paul Goldschmidt - .302

Who was better, and how do you know?

Chris Johnson - .321
Chris Davis - .286
Edwin Encarnacion - .271
Evan Longoria - .269

Drawing walks is a skill as well btw. *This shit helped my second half run*

WAR. That's what it's good for.

Like I said even in the 1880's, no one judged a player on one stat alone. Anyone can pick out one random stat and say "oh see- this shows that it's misleading". But no one ever does that- even back in the old days, they looked at HR, RBI's, .AVG and depending on the player stolen bases all together to get a more complete picture of a player. And with pitchers, W/L record, K's, and ERA.

[Will James]

So, you're saying that Matt Harvey was the best pitcher in baseball last year? And if you think that you are going to play the Lance Lynn card on me after I spent all season proclaiming that he sucked after you tried to convince me that he was not all that bad with sabermetrics- you have another thing coming.
I wasn't basing it on his wins. I used Lynn because of your known ire for him. I could have gone with Shelby Miller instead. And yes Harvey was the best until his injury. Workload counts. Kershaw was the best in the regular season, followed by Wainwright.


Let me ask you this- which one of the two between Lynn and Felix was on a better team? Were both able to amass a fair amount of quality starts and is that valuable in today's game? Why should their teammates determine which one is a better pitcher?


And please- if we're going to talk about indicators as to whom the top pitcher's in the game are- let's just go straight to WAR and agree on which version of WAR we are using so we'll be on the same page as opposed to using pitcher win or FIP

Don't like the WAR very much. I'll stick with the FIP and SIERA.


which takes the defense out as if that's not an important part of the game.

And out of the control of the pitcher

[Todd4State]

I wasn't basing it on his wins. I used Lynn because of your known ire for him. I could have gone with Shelby Miller instead. And yes Harvey was the best until his injury. Workload counts. Kershaw was the best in the regular season, followed by Wainwright.

Why should their teammates determine which one is a better pitcher?



Don't like the WAR very much. I'll stick with the FIP and SIERA.



And out of the control of the pitcher

Oh, I know why you picked Lynn.

Why should their teammates determine who is a better pitcher? Umm...how many pitchers play without a team behind them? This isn't tennis. Maybe because baseball is played in real life and not in a vacuum? And let's not act like EVERYTHING a pitcher does is totally out of their control or in their control. And let's quit pretending that everyone uses Wins as the sole means of determining who a better pitcher is. Pitchers and fielders all have scouting reports that they go over before series so that they know how best to pitch to and attack a hitter. A pitcher knows if a shift is going to be on. A pitcher knows if a hitter is a dead pull hitter- and they can exploit that, or they can also miss their spot and give up a hit.

Why don't you like WAR? The biggest downside of WAR as of today is the fact that there are several versions rather than one agreed upon version. If you are talking player value- it's the stat that MLB GM's are going to use when comparing players and their total overall contributions.

And as far as seeing who the best pitcher in baseball was- we'll find out soon enough when Matt Harvey (WAR of 5.2) and his injured elbow wins the Cy Young in the National League over Clayton Kershaw (WAR of 7.9).**

[Will James]

Oh, I know why you picked Lynn.

Why should their teammates determine who is a better pitcher? Umm...how many pitchers play without a team behind them? This isn't tennis. Maybe because baseball is played in real life and not in a vacuum? And let's not act like EVERYTHING a pitcher does is totally out of their control or in their control. And let's quit pretending that everyone uses Wins as the sole means of determining who a better pitcher is. Pitchers and fielders all have scouting reports that they go over before series so that they know how best to pitch to and attack a hitter. A pitcher knows if a shift is going to be on. A pitcher knows if a hitter is a dead pull hitter- and they can exploit that, or they can also miss their spot and give up a hit.

Why don't you like WAR? The biggest downside of WAR as of today is the fact that there are several versions rather than one agreed upon version. If you are talking player value- it's the stat that MLB GM's are going to use when comparing players and their total overall contributions.

And as far as seeing who the best pitcher in baseball was- we'll find out soon enough when Matt Harvey (WAR of 5.2) and his injured elbow wins the Cy Young in the National League over Clayton Kershaw (WAR of 7.9).**

Notice I said on Harvey, "until his injury" and I also said "workload matters". You don't have to distort me to debate.

WAR can be useful but defensive inputs aren't there yet so it can be distorted. If you could perfect WAR it'd be the thing to look at.

And again, what is a better indicator of pitcher performance, things he can control or things he cant? Hence Fielding-Independent Pitching. SIERA brings in the batted ball result because groundballs generally end up with better results (not many extra base hits or home runs). So a pitcher with high K numbers, low walk numbers, and high ground ball rates (Lindgren) will translate to success.

For the most part WAR correlates to FIP. Not so much wins or even ERA. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

[Will James]

Another factor on WAR is that it's cumulative. I like per/ numbers to tell me what a hitter is. Now WAR/162 games could work, but straight cumulative over a season aint the ticket.

[Dawg61]

Pitchers affect players defense. A slow deliberate pitcher that gets fouled off a ton and doesn't pitch effectively to a shift will have a defense more susceptible to the error.

[Will James]

Pitchers affect players defense. A slow deliberate pitcher that gets fouled off a ton and doesn't pitch effectively to a shift will have a defense more susceptible to the error.

The correlation from year to year is among the lowest for BABIP, meaning pitchers have very little control over their balls in play. Making fielding INDEPENDENT stats which do correlate well what you should look at to judge a pitcher.

[ShotgunDawg]

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and it's not close.

Will, do you have our pitcher's stats?

I want to see the following:

IP, SO, K/9, BB/9, WHIP, and xFIP

Thanks!

[Will James]

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and it's not close.

Will, do you have our pitcher's stats?

I want to see the following:

IP, SO, K/9, BB/9, WHIP, and xFIP

Thanks!

Fall ball doesn't allow enough innings to even sniff viable stats. It would be similar to taking a national election poll and asking 40 people.

Our hitting stats is kind of like asking 100 people for the poll, take with a grain of salt. Seth Heck is not our best hitter.

[ShotgunDawg]

Fall ball doesn't allow enough innings to even sniff viable stats. It would be similar to taking a national election poll and asking 40 people.

Our hitting stats is kind of like asking 100 people for the poll, take with a grain of salt. Seth Heck is not our best hitter.

IP, SO, and K/9 would be interesting even in small sample sizes. WHIP and xFIP wouldn't be as accurate.

I just want to see who has the ability to create swing and miss.

[Will James]

IP, SO, and K/9 would be interesting even in small sample sizes. WHIP and xFIP wouldn't be as accurate.

I just want to see who has the ability to create swing and miss.

I was going to do those at the end, but as of last week the most IP by one guy is Sexton with 9.2. Not even two starts worth and he's thrown the MOST. I'd look to their summer and 2013 stats for those indicators.

[Will James]

IP, SO, and K/9 would be interesting even in small sample sizes. WHIP and xFIP wouldn't be as accurate.

I just want to see who has the ability to create swing and miss.

Some from last spring. Not sure if CWS is included.



Holder
45.8%


Girodo
28.3%


Lindgren
27.0%


Cox
24.0%


Gentry
23.1%


Bracewell
21.3%


Fitts
18.3%


Pollo
17.5%


Graveman
15.0%


Ross
13.0%

[Todd4State]

Notice I said on Harvey, "until his injury" and I also said "workload matters". You don't have to distort me to debate.

WAR can be useful but defensive inputs aren't there yet so it can be distorted. If you could perfect WAR it'd be the thing to look at.

And again, what is a better indicator of pitcher performance, things he can control or things he cant? Hence Fielding-Independent Pitching. SIERA brings in the batted ball result because groundballs generally end up with better results (not many extra base hits or home runs). So a pitcher with high K numbers, low walk numbers, and high ground ball rates (Lindgren) will translate to success.

For the most part WAR correlates to FIP. Not so much wins or even ERA. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

I only distorted you to show you how easily it is to distort anything based on one set of numbers. Giving you a taste of your own medicene if you will.

WAR will be perfected over time. I am particularly interested in the stat for fielding that they used to help determine the Gold Glove winners this year and see if that gets incoporated as opposed to UZR. They really need to come up with one uniform version of WAR.

The pitching is a good example- Fangraphs uses FIP because they "feel like it's more reliable" in their WAR equation. Baseball Reference uses runs allowed and innings pitched in theirs.

My answer to your question about what is a better indicator of pitcher performance- the REAL answer is both. SIERA and FIP are ERA indicators- but since we also know that there are forces that pitchers and hitters can't control you have to account for that as well since it's all part of the game. Again, you have to look at the entire picture. You're relying on a stat that takes out approx. 65% of what a pitcher does (FIP) to get a picture of how they perform and then suggesting that is the way to go. That's no different than just looking at batting average when you think about it. Take all the data that you can get and then apply all of it and make an informed opinion. A stat like FIP is going to penalize a guy like Jamie Moyer who was a good pitcher- but he relied on getting hitters to get himself out. But there is other data that supports that in his prime, Moyer was a very good pitcher.

When you try to pick and choose stats and you exclude other stats- you're not going to get the entire total picture.