Tuesday Severe Weather Threat

[starkvegasdawg]

https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/swody6_severeprob.png?v=267

[starkvegasdawg]

Slight change to how in formatting the severe threads. The OP will be graphics only and I'll update it to the most up to date available to save having to scroll and find the latest. Then starting with the first reply will be my $0.02 worth. That said...

This system has had the eyes of everybody for a few days now. There's still some disagreement among the models, but a severe threat looks to be forming for MS sometime between late Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. While the NWS seems to be certain of good moisture return ahead of the system allowing for strong instability to form, I'm not as sold yet. CAPE values still look to be on the meager side from what I've seen. What will not be in short supply is wind shear. Shear will be in ample supply and any storms that can develop and maintain themselves will have the capability of spinning like a top. Still too early to talk specifics such as storm mode but due to the at least marginal instability, decent lapse rates, and strong shear, all modes of severe weather will at least be possible to some degree. As we get closer we'll get a better idea of storm mode and what the specific threats are. I will say that if the other parameters hold, and we can squeeze out a little more instability then this storm may be an interesting ride. If not, then just your typical late winter severe event like we've seen already this year.

[SaintDawg]

whats the odds of cancelling the ballgame at trustmark park wednesday night vs usm? still way to early to call?

[starkvegasdawg]

whats the odds of cancelling the ballgame at trustmark park wednesday night vs usm? still way to early to call?

Still too early but as of now I'd say game will be played as rain should be out by early that morning.

[SaintDawg]

Still too early but as of now I'd say game will be played as rain should be out by early that morning.
good to know, thanks SVD

[starkvegasdawg]

Severe threat looks to be greatly diminishing for this system except for the immediate coast on Wednesday. The low pressure system took a more southerly track which took most of the state out of the unstable environment. However, we are now in a heavy rain set up and 3-5" is not out of the question for some areas. So for those of you worried your mud was starting to dry out you can breathe easy.

[Barking 13]

Thanks SD. I looked for an update last night

[parabrave]

So it's OK to fertilize my lawn in Biloxi Tues?

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks SD. I looked for an update last night

Sorry. Things were in the process of transitioning to the new updates so I was holding out. The NAM is showing a decent severe threat along and south of highway 80 Tuesday. North part of MS could see an isolated severe event tomorrow mainly along and north of 82. Biggest thing will now be the heavy rainfall as 2-3" will be common and a few reports up to 5" won't surprise me. Rain looks to be the theme through Wednesday night before finally clearing out for the latter half of the week and weekend.