Here we go again - Wednesday severe threat

[starkvegasdawg]

https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/swody4_severeprob.png?v=602

This one sort of came out of left field. The euro was showing it about 8 days ago and then it came out and the gfs never looked impressive. But times, as they say, are changing. SPC now feels confident of what looks to possibly be a significant severe weather event Wednesday as they have released a say four enhanced risk. They are also mentioning discrete supercells being possible along with a squall line. The supercells will have a risk for all severe weather modes including tornadoes. Early this afternoon after we get the 12z model runs in I'll take a look and see what they say.

[msbulldog]

Thanks Vegas.

[OLJWales]

Don't like seeing these things as my Mom who is 78 lives in Jack Town.

thread hijack: I'm pissed that we here in Fort Worth will maybe miss a significant snow fall. I still carry a childhood love / fascination for snow. Have you guys in MS had any snow this year? get any last year? all we got was a very light dusting a little while back and a rain /sleet mix the other day. I've always thought the Dallas area has about the same chances for wintry weather somewhere between the chances of Jackson and Mempho.

[starkvegasdawg]

Don't like seeing these things as my Mom who is 78 lives in Jack Town.

thread hijack: I'm pissed that we here in Fort Worth will maybe miss a significant snow fall. I still carry a childhood love / fascination for snow. Have you guys in MS had any snow this year? get any last year? all we got was a very light dusting a little while back and a rain /sleet mix the other day. I've always thought the Dallas area has about the same chances for wintry weather somewhere between the chances of Jackson and Mempho.

All we got in Starkville was a temporary light dusting back very early in the season. It's been several years since we saw what I call a real snow.

As for the severe and your mom in Jackson...right now just a wait and see on where the severe threat sets up and if it strengthens or weakens. Just make sure she follows these safety tips.

1. Have multiple ways to receive warnings. Best is a battery powered weather radio with SAME technology.

2. Keep your cell phone charged and on you at all times.

3. Know before hand where you will take shelter and make sure it is ready now.

4. Have people inside and outside your neighborhood know where you take shelter in your house. In the case of a direct hit they immediately know where to start looking.

5. If you will not be home during a severe event, let those same people know so nobody will waste time looking for someone that's not there.

6. Have a loud. police whistle or some other easily useable noise maker with you so you can signal for help. Key word here is LOUD.

7. Have a bottle of water with you in case you are trapped but still able to move your arms. You can have water with you to stay hydrated until help arrives.

8. Stay calm. The odds of taking a direct hit from a tornado, even on outbreak days, is very small. And even if you do, 99% of all tornadoes are only strong enough to take off a roof at most. The strong to violent tornadoes that reduce houses to slabs account for less than 1% of all tornadoes. That said, treat every warning as if one of those 1% tornadoes is on the ground and heading for you. Never assume it isn't there or will miss you.

Also, know the different types of warnings. Not all warnings are created equal.

1. Severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. Lowest threat warning. Simply means radar has indicated a severe thunderstorm with tight rotation. A tornado may or may not be formed.

2. Severe thunderstorm producing a tornado. Means the NWS has strong reason to believe a tornado is currently on the ground but still no definitive proof.

3. Confirmed tornado. Means one has been seen by crazy people like me out chasing or confirmed on radar by the presence of a TDS or tornado debris signature.

4. PDS or particularly dangerous situation. The rarest of all warnings. Means a confirmed tornado has entered or about to enter a populated area.

Although the PDS warnings are rare. I was in two of them last week so they are issued.

One last thing. They will, on occasion, issue a PDS WATCH. This just means they expect very significant severe weather in the watch area. Again, these are very rare.

[parabrave]

So the main question is where you going to be and will the live feed work?

[OLJWales]

thanks Vegas. I'll be talking to her later on today. Not sure how many years ago it was but she lives on Farnsworth and another home on Farnsworth got socked bad but her home was not damaged.

weird how naders can pop one home real close by but leave others undamaged.

[starkvegasdawg]

So the main question is where you going to be and will the live feed work?

Where I'll be is still to be determined. I'll be honest, what I'm seeing looking at the models is not impressing me severe wise. But I'm also not a degreed met like what the SPC has.

[OLJWales]

Where I'll be is still to be determined. I'll be honest, what I'm seeing looking at the models is not impressing me severe wise. But I'm also not a degreed met like what the SPC has.

degreed or not, you are still a badass

[parabrave]

Where I'll be is still to be determined. I'll be honest, what I'm seeing looking at the models is not impressing me severe wise. But I'm also not a degreed met like what the SPC has.

Ask Scooba and the other owners if you can pin your live feed up top. That would be must click thread and it also let other posters see what you have to go through.

[starkvegasdawg]

degreed or not, you are still a badass

I'm convinced there is a fine line between bad ass and crazy as hell.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ask Scooba and the other owners if you can pin your live feed up top. That would be must click thread and it also let other posters see what you have to go through.

That would be great if they wanted to. Of course right now it is just my twitter page @nmscasStan. Although, without saying too much, our chase team is working on something now that might change that. I'm not sure what it will or won't include yet as it's still in the developmental stages, but I hope to be able to share more sometime later this spring severe season.

[parabrave]

I do enjoy following you. Is there anyway you can do a splitscreen with the different radars to let us know what you are looking at?

[starkvegasdawg]

I do enjoy following you. Is there anyway you can do a splitscreen with the different radars to let us know what you are looking at?

I don't think so. I'm still pretty low tech. My live stream camera my old iPhone. I can use my main phone and do screen shots of radar and maybe tweet them or hold my phone in front of my laptop radar.

[RocketDawg]

Don't like seeing these things as my Mom who is 78 lives in Jack Town.

thread hijack: I'm pissed that we here in Fort Worth will maybe miss a significant snow fall. I still carry a childhood love / fascination for snow. Have you guys in MS had any snow this year? get any last year? all we got was a very light dusting a little while back and a rain /sleet mix the other day. I've always thought the Dallas area has about the same chances for wintry weather somewhere between the chances of Jackson and Mempho.

Don't know about Mississippi, but in the Huntsville area we had an inch or so in December, but only a trace a few times since then, including yesterday. Northeast Alabama had a couple inches yesterday morning. So not much here at all and it's 60 degrees today. Some flowering trees are actually blooming already.

[DownwardDawg]

Hey, what ever happened to Ref? Both y’all on the weather threads together was a beautiful thing.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest discussion from Jackson NWS office is strongly hinting that the severe threat from this system Wednesday will be downgraded. Just not looking as impressive to them.

[shoeless joe]

Latest discussion from Jackson NWS office is strongly hinting that the severe threat from this system Wednesday will be downgraded. Just not looking as impressive to them.

I’d like for em to miss one on the good side for a change.

[starkvegasdawg]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

Monday has now been upgraded to a slight risk for severe weather. The graphic above is the tornado threat area. Storms should and start training over the same areas. The southern boundary of these storms will be where the tornado threat is maximized. Peak timing should be early to mid evening. Still another couple hours before the Wednesday update is released.

[parabrave]

Lots of warm, moist air moving up from the coast at a very fast pace. WPC predicting heavy rainfall across the NW part of the state tom.

[starkvegasdawg]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0830.gif

SPC doubling down on Wednesday.

[ScoobaDawg]

Hey, what ever happened to Ref? Both y’all on the weather threads together was a beautiful thing.

Ref does other life saving work for a living now and doesn't come around much.. especially with the new addition to the family.

[DownwardDawg]

Ref does other life saving work for a living now and doesn't come around much.. especially with the new addition to the family.

I gotcha. Thanks for the response. I always enjoy y’all’s input in these threads. It just hit me that he had been away a while.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks to everybody who has followed me on twitter. The last two storm events I have gained a butt ton of followers and 99% of them were MSU fans, and since this is the only site I've made my twitter site public knowledge it has to be coming from here. I never thought I'd see a 1,000 followers but now here I am knocking on the door of that. Hopefully, the information I put out here and in twitter is found useful and not a colossal waste of everyone's time.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks to everybody who has followed me on twitter. The last two storm events I have gained a butt ton of followers and 99% of them were MSU fans, and since this is the only site I've made my twitter site public knowledge it has to be coming from here. I never thought I'd see a 1,000 followers but now here I am knocking on the door of that. Hopefully, the information I put out here and in twitter is found useful and not a colossal waste of everyone's time.

I sure appreciate what you're doing! I've come to count on your predictions and forecasts and what's happening out there! Thank you and all who keep up us updated on these storms!

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

I concur with everyone else on here in their appreciation for this information. It's funny, my wife asked me late yesterday evening what the weather was going to do this week and I told her to hold on, I'd go check. Not even thinking, this is where I came. It didn't dawn on me until I was reading other posts about coming here for the information, but instead of the Weather Channel or someplace else, I go straight to Elite Dawg's for my weather updates. Who'da ever thought it??

[KOdawg1]

Must've missed it, what's your twitter handle StarkVegasDawg? I'd love to follow

[starkvegasdawg]

Must've missed it, what's your twitter handle StarkVegasDawg? I'd love to follow

@nmscasStan

[FISHDAWG]

I concur with everyone else on here in their appreciation for this information. It's funny, my wife asked me late yesterday evening what the weather was going to do this week and I told her to hold on, I'd go check. Not even thinking, this is where I came. It didn't dawn on me until I was reading other posts about coming here for the information, but instead of the Weather Channel or someplace else, I go straight to Elite Dawg's for my weather updates. Who'da ever thought it??

agreed ... He needs his own sticky just for reports .... call it Elite Weather

[ScoobaDawg]

agreed ... He needs his own sticky just for reports .... call it Elite Weather

He pretty much has his own forum for weather.. I might sticky that instead so he doesn't have to post in two different places.
https://www.sippolitics.com/forumdisplay.php?13-Sip-Weather

[dawgday166]

agreed ... He needs his own sticky just for reports .... call it Elite Weather

Agree with this. I come on here when weather is acting up to see what SVD has to say.

[starkvegasdawg]

Oktibbeha County Lake expected to meet or exceed levels it was at last month that prompted the concern. Expected to happen tonight or tomorrow.

[RocketDawg]

Oktibbeha County Lake expected to meet or exceed levels it was at last month that prompted the concern. Expected to happen tonight or tomorrow.

How much rain have you had today (I assume you probably have a weather station)? I've had 1.67" so far since midnight. That's a tipping bucket so it may not be too accurate. Dumped out 2.25" late yesterday from my normal rain gauge. More coming tonight, and tomorrow ... and Wednesday ... and Thursday.

[starkvegasdawg]

How much rain have you had today (I assume you probably have a weather station)? I've had 1.67" so far since midnight. That's a tipping bucket so it may not be too accurate. Dumped out 2.25" late yesterday from my normal rain gauge. More coming tonight, and tomorrow ... and Wednesday ... and Thursday.

I've had 2.37" last 24 hours. They may have had a little more out at the lake. I think another couple inches expected tonight and 2-3" Wednesday.

[Treemydawg]

@nmscasStan

You just gained another twitter follower with me. I absolutely hate that I’ve moved north and can’t ride along on chases anymore. Keep the info coming bud, it’s much appreciated.

[starkvegasdawg]

You just gained another twitter follower with me. I absolutely hate that I’ve moved north and can’t ride along on chases anymore. Keep the info coming bud, it’s much appreciated.

Still remember the chase in AR when we had a tornado warned storm with baseball size hail chasing up and we hit a flooded road and had to turn around and head back into it.

[DownwardDawg]

Thanks to everybody who has followed me on twitter. The last two storm events I have gained a butt ton of followers and 99% of them were MSU fans, and since this is the only site I've made my twitter site public knowledge it has to be coming from here. I never thought I'd see a 1,000 followers but now here I am knocking on the door of that. Hopefully, the information I put out here and in twitter is found useful and not a colossal waste of everyone's time.

My son started following you tonight. He has over 50,000 followers. I’ll get him to give you a shout out. Be sure to follow him back.

[starkvegasdawg]

My son started following you tonight. He has over 50,000 followers. I’ll get him to give you a shout out. Be sure to follow him back.

Just did.

[starkvegasdawg]

https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/swody2_categorical.png?v=839

Threat level for Wednesday lowered to slight. Main threat will be a squall line with 50-60mph straight line winds. A spin up tornado can't be ruled out. Instability continues to come in less and less with recent model runs and the juice just won't be there for a major severe event as it looks now. Heavy rainfall, however, continues to be a major concern.

[Barking 13]

Started follerin’
Thanks!

[starkvegasdawg]

My biggest concern for Wednesday is trees falling throughout the day. Winds will be quite gusty throughout the day regardless of storms. Non-storm winds could hit close to 40mph. With trees already lose their anchors in the ground due to all the rain, prolonged strong winds plus strong to severe storms will only increases the likelihood of trees being blown over...mainly hardwoods due to their root systems.

[RocketDawg]

Oktibbeha County Lake expected to meet or exceed levels it was at last month that prompted the concern. Expected to happen tonight or tomorrow.

I just saw a segment on the Weather Channel where they're pumping water out of the lake. The Miss. Emergency manager said they'd pumped it down 8', but that it's come back up 4' with the latest rain. So they're pumping and losing ground as the rain continues.

[starkvegasdawg]

I just saw a segment on the Weather Channel where they're pumping water out of the lake. The Miss. Emergency manager said they'd pumped it down 8', but that it's come back up 4' with the latest rain. So they're pumping and losing ground as the rain continues.

Think I've heard it's pretty much back to old level now or expected to be by tonight. Unfortunately, models have been showing an additional 4-8" of rain by middle of next week last I looked.

[Treemydawg]

Still remember the chase in AR when we had a tornado warned storm with baseball size hail chasing up and we hit a flooded road and had to turn around and head back into it.

Yes, I remember it well. It was on a Sunday evening when we headed out and it was a loooong evening and night. I still have the video I took of the tornado just west of Lake Village that was literally just on the other side of the west bound four lane when we were sitting on the side of the east bound lane. It was less than 150 yards away while videoing and passed directly over head just before I started videoing. I?ll never forget that day. Fun as hell and scary as hell all at the same time haha.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yes, I remember it well. It was on a Sunday evening when we headed out and it was a loooong evening and night. I still have the video I took of the tornado just west of Lake Village that was literally just on the other side of the west bound four lane when we were sitting on the side of the east bound lane. It was less than 150 yards away while videoing and passed directly over head just before I started videoing. I?ll never forget that day. Fun as hell and scary as hell all at the same time haha.

As the saying goes...If you're not scared for your life then you're not in good enough position.

[starkvegasdawg]

Try as I might I just can't get excited about today's system. Just looks like the instability won't be in place. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple storms over achieved but all in all this doesn't look to be a major event. My biggest concern is the additional heavy rain with the prolonged gusty winds ranging from 20-40mph today. This could lead to trees losing their anchor and being blown down. Additionally, the county lake has now exceeded the levels that prompted the concerns last month. Water is simply coming in faster than it can be pumped out. Another 2-3" are expected in this area though tonight before a brief lull before more rain moves in this weekend and early next week. Jury is still out on how much rain is expected from that system but latest models pointing at around 1-3".

[starkvegasdawg]

Squall line about to push through the Starkville area. Currently no warnings in effect, but some are close to reaching low end severe limits.

[RocketDawg]

The line moved through here a little after 6 but there wasn't even any thunder. We had a severe TS warning but at my house, very little wind. Plenty of rain though - I've had 1.22" so far and it's still pouring. From the looks of radar it's not going to stop anytime soon.

Monday afternoon I dumped 2.25" out of my "real" gauge, and another 3.20 this afternoon before the latest round got here. I'll be over 7" since the weekend soon, maybe even 8, depending on when the rain stops.

[starkvegasdawg]

The line waited until it got into Sabanland to go severe. Highest wind gust I recorded was 29mph south of West Point where I at least got a pic of shelf cloud. Highlight of the chase was getting to take my junior storm chaser with me. He's starting to get the bug, but still a little apprehensive on storms. When I relocated to west point he asked why we were moving and I said I wanted to get ahead of that storm to cut it off. With a voice of surprise and disbelief I got..."You mean you want to get in front of the storm on purpose?" Told him that's exactly what I wanted to do. That's what crazy storm chasers do.