Multi day severe weather event possible next week

[starkvegasdawg]

Next Tuesday and Wednesday could see some strong to severe storms as a series of storm systems cross the area. As things look now, this is setting up to be a typical winter low CAPE/high shear severe event. Typically, that would mean some strong straight line winds and a few tornadoes, but we're still too far out to start nailing down specifics. If the forecast holds, the time frame looks to be late Tuesday afternoon and night for the delta region and then transitioning to central and south MS late Monday night to the first part of Wednesday. The SPC has already issued day 5 and 6 threat outlooks below.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

[PMDawg]

Isn't it pretty rare to issue threat outlooks that far out?

[Duckdog]

This weather is killing my baseball practice

[starkvegasdawg]

Isn't it pretty rare to issue threat outlooks that far out?

Six days out isn't exceptionally common, but it's not rare. It will happen a few times a year. Seven days out starts to get uncommon. It may happen once or twice a year.

[DownwardDawg]

Yay***

[parabrave]

I nominate that Starkvegas gets his own Pinned thread at the top of the page. Especially with spring quickly approaching. Only requirement for him is to post his chase videos and they be narrated. What do you think Scooba?

[yjnkdawg]

I nominate that Starkvegas gets his own Pinned thread at the top of the page. Especially with spring quickly approaching. Only requirement for him is to post his chase videos and they be narrated. What do you think Scooba?



I second the nomination.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the latest from the SPC. For both Tuesday and Wednesday they have expanded the threat area. They also used a term that all chasers hate to hear...squall line. If that is true and holds expect main threat to be damaging straight line winds with the possibility of a few spin up tornadoes embedded in the line. In the next couple days the medium range models will start picking this system up and we'll have a better idea of what we're looking at.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

[starkvegasdawg]

Not much different to report. Timing still looking about the same with the delta region looking like overnight Tuesday and the rest of the state Wednesday afternoon. Starting to see some indications this may be more a squall line event which will be more straight line winds than tornadoes, but there will be enough shear for some line embedded tornadoes to be possible. That detail should be ironed out starting tomorrow as the medium range models start to cover the entire event. As of now still just a slight risk by the SPC. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wednesday end up enhanced for the eastern and southern part of the state and into AL.

[starkvegasdawg]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif

This is a good news / bad news update. The good news is that they've all but dropped the severe threat for today in the delta region. Most of north MS is under a marginal threat, but by and large most storms will stay under severe limits. Yesterday, they thought the same thing about Wednesday, but models were not in agreement. The bad news is today they're in better agreement and the severe threat has returned for Wednesday. As of right now this is for parts of MS basically south of the Natchez Trace. Another new development is the SPC now mentioning the threat for discrete supercell development out ahead of the front. While the entire threat area looks to be in this risk, I would place my bets on the biggest threat being the threat area between I-20 and Hattiesburg. Timing looks to be from late morning for the western zones and pushing into Sabanland by dark. This is still not looking like a high end event, but I do think we'll end up with a decent amount of severe reports.

[MetEdDawg]

This is a good news / bad news update. The good news is that they've all but dropped the severe threat for today in the delta region. Most of north MS is under a marginal threat, but by and large most storms will stay under severe limits. Yesterday, they thought the same thing about Wednesday, but models were not in agreement. The bad news is today they're in better agreement and the severe threat has returned for Wednesday. As of right now this is for parts of MS basically south of the Natchez Trace. Another new development is the SPC now mentioning the threat for discrete supercell development out ahead of the front. While the entire threat area looks to be in this risk, I would place my bets on the biggest threat being the threat area between I-20 and Hattiesburg. Timing looks to be from late morning for the western zones and pushing into Sabanland by dark. This is still not looking like a high end event, but I do think we'll end up with a decent amount of severe reports.

Gulf storms/moisture could limit us over here in Alabama but models aren't doing a great job with consistency in that solution. This is one of those that probably needs to be an enhanced risk for us here, but it's not gonna be an in between. It's either gonna be kinda bad or it's gonna be no severe with a lot of rain.

Need more consistency today in a model solution that we can go forward with. Hope we get it.

[Indndawg]

Next Tuesday and Wednesday could see some strong to severe storms as a series of storm systems cross the area. As things look now, this is setting up to be a typical winter low CAPE/high shear severe event. Typically, that would mean some strong straight line winds and a few tornadoes, but we're still too far out to start nailing down specifics. If the forecast holds, the time frame looks to be late Tuesday afternoon and night for the delta region and then transitioning to central and south MS late Monday night to the first part of Wednesday. The SPC has already issued day 5 and 6 threat outlooks below.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

hate this weather

[DownwardDawg]

Bump. Any late Tuesday update??

[starkvegasdawg]

Bump. Any late Tuesday update??

Was waiting for the evening model runs, but not much change. NAM may have trended slightly weaker but it was the less reliable midday run. The HRRR has lost its mind in storm severity, but I think it's drunk. All in all I'm still thinking about the same as I did this morning. Will update again later tonight when 00z model runs come in.

[starkvegasdawg]

00z models look to be intensifying things. The forecast discussion from Jackson NWS also with a little more concern.

[DownwardDawg]

00z models look to be intensifying things. The forecast discussion from Jackson NWS also with a little more concern.

Thanks man. Keep us updated. I’ll be checking this thread constantly.

[starkvegasdawg]

Overnight, the SPC kept the slight risk for MS instead of upgrading to enhanced. They'll update again at 7:00am. We've already had one storm near Carthage go tornado warned this morning. The HRRR is still being very aggressive on showing today carrying a good tornado threat - especially in SW MS up to east central MS starting around noon. I'm not sure if that will verify as I am seeing some convection near the coast which may try to choke off instability making this far north. Right now it's just a waiting game to see what happens, but this is a day I'd prepare for it to be bad and then hope it doesn't happen.

[starkvegasdawg]

Getting ready to head out. I hear Rolling Fork is pretty this time of year. Next SPC update is not for a couple hours so time to get some road under the tires.

[parabrave]

Getting ready to head out. I hear Rolling Fork is pretty this time of year. Next SPC update is not for a couple hours so time to get some road under the tires.

North of Long Beach about not a place to be in about one hour/

[MetEdDawg]

Enhanced risk upgrade for Central MS and NW AL. Came out on this new SPC update. Enhanced tornado risk along and 50 miles on either side of a line from roughly Vicksburg to Tupelo.

[parabrave]

Hey Vegas what is a good radar site that shows the winds?

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vegas what is a good radar site that shows the winds?

Not sure about a free site. The best radar app available is RadarScope and it shows velocities. It's a one time $9.99 for the base set up.

[starkvegasdawg]

Enhanced risk upgrade for Central MS and NW AL. Came out on this new SPC update. Enhanced tornado risk along and 50 miles on either side of a line from roughly Vicksburg to Tupelo.

Right now I'm about 30 miles north of Vicksburg. If something doesn't change we're not getting squat. It's 54 degrees, foggy, and misting where I am right now. Hardly tornado weather.

[Liverpooldawg]

Right now I'm about 30 miles north of Vicksburg. If something doesn't change we're not getting squat. It's 54 degrees, foggy, and misting where I am right now. Hardly tornado weather.

GOOD!

[Commercecomet24]

Right now I'm about 30 miles north of Vicksburg. If something doesn't change we're not getting squat. It's 54 degrees, foggy, and misting where I am right now. Hardly tornado weather.

My wife had to take my youngest daughter to her rheumotologist today in Madison. They should be leaving there about 3 heading back to Jones county. How does it look for them on the drive home? Appreciate all the info!

[parabrave]

Hey Vegas you got a nice sized cell about to cross the river right north of Vicksburg headed your way.

[parabrave]

My wife had to take my youngest daughter to her rheumotologist today in Madison. They should be leaving there about 3 heading back to Jones county. How does it look for them on the drive home? Appreciate all the info!

There is a tornado warning for Magee right about now. Also a dam broke west of Taylorsvile, They might want to checvk with MDOT before they leave.

[Commercecomet24]

There is a tornado warning for Magee right about now. Also a dam broke west of Taylorsvile, They might want to checvk with MDOT before they leave.

Appreciate the update! Thank you!

[parabrave]

And a lightning bolt just took our the cable and TV in Biloxi.

[TimberBeast]

And a lightning bolt just took our the cable and TV in Biloxi.

Looks like a nasty storm headed that way right now.

[parabrave]

Hey Vegas got you live off your Twit. Looks good

[RocketDawg]

Not sure about a free site. The best radar app available is RadarScope and it shows velocities. It's a one time $9.99 for the base set up.

The NWS sites have storm relative velocity. Here's an example: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=htx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[RocketDawg]

Right now I'm about 30 miles north of Vicksburg. If something doesn't change we're not getting squat. It's 54 degrees, foggy, and misting where I am right now. Hardly tornado weather.


That was just before 1:00. The Weather Channel said it was 70+ in Jackson, only 50-60 miles to the east. I guess you were on the cold side of the front.

New tornado watch issued a few minutes ago that includes NE Mississippi and most of the northern third or so of Alabama.

[parabrave]

Bad cell getting ready to hit Starkvegas. Reported tornado near Akerman moving towards Starkville. This was about 20 mins ago.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vegas you got a nice sized cell about to cross the river right north of Vicksburg headed your way.

Ended up catching this storm west of Pickens near Vaughn. I was under the fringes of the circulation but don't think it was on the ground at the time. It ended up touching down just south of Pickens and tore up some trees.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hey Vegas got you live off your Twit. Looks good

Thanks. It kept cutting out on me. Not sure why. Guessing maybe not a good signal. After the second time it cut out I just quit trying. I was in a rather precarious spot at the time so it wasn't top priority.

[starkvegasdawg]

The NWS sites have storm relative velocity. Here's an example: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=htx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Completely forgot about them.

[Westdawg]

Ended up catching this storm west of Pickens near Vaughn. I was under the fringes of the circulation but don't think it was on the ground at the time. It ended up touching down just south of Pickens and tore up some trees.

What was the track of that one , starkvegasdaeg??

[softballfanatic1]

I want to personally thank starkvegasdawg for informing us of weather related events in advance

[starkvegasdawg]

What was the track of that one , starkvegasdaeg??

It tracked south of Yazoo City to near Pickens and then Kosciusko. On radar it looked like Pickens took a direct hit, but I never saw any damage there at all.

[starkvegasdawg]

I want to personally thank starkvegasdawg for informing us of weather related events in advance

I'm just glad y'all don't mind me doing it. I'm a complete weather nerd and could talk about if all day.

[starkvegasdawg]

There's a storm now that for the life of me I don't know why it's not tornado warned. It's about to move through the Collins / Seminary area.

[parabrave]

There's a storm now that for the life of me I don't know why it's not tornado warned. It's about to move through the Collins / Seminary area.

What about Meridan area. Saw on NWS Jackson there were power outs and trees down within the last hour. Quiet here on the coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

What about Meridan area. Saw on NWS Jackson there were power outs and trees down within the last hour. Quiet here on the coast.

Meridian had a tornado warned storm move through earlier. There's a severe warned storm south of there now but no threat to Meridian. Things are now quieting down rapidly.

[parabrave]

Hey SVD if you're still up check out that Cell that looks like its around the Cuba area. Looks like a Bow is trying to form. n bI don't have a WV radar but check yours out.

[defiantdog]

Damn weather radio started going crazy at 2:30am. Thought my damn house alarm was going off.

[DownwardDawg]

There's a storm now that for the life of me I don't know why it's not tornado warned. It's about to move through the Collins / Seminary area.

I’m with ya man. I live just west of Collins off 84. It was horrible last night. Especially about the time you posted this. We couldn’t get any sleep. It was very eerie. Different than some of the past events.

Thanks for these threads. They help a bunch. I used this thread to keep my granddaughter out of school in Simpson county yesterday. Kept her with me!!!

[starkvegasdawg]

I’m with ya man. I live just west of Collins off 84. It was horrible last night. Especially about the time you posted this. We couldn’t get any sleep. It was very eerie. Different than some of the past events.

Thanks for these threads. They help a bunch. I used this thread to keep my granddaughter out of school in Simpson county yesterday. Kept her with me!!!

You're welcome. I'll keep posting them so long as people want them.

[RocketDawg]

Hey SVD if you're still up check out that Cell that looks like its around the Cuba area. Looks like a Bow is trying to form. n bI don't have a WV radar but check yours out.

Was that the storm in Marengo County, AL that had one fatality?

[starkvegasdawg]

Was that the storm in Marengo County, AL that had one fatality?

James Spann says it was in Gallion near Demopolis. Not sure what county that's in, though.

[RocketDawg]

James Spann says it was in Gallion near Demopolis. Not sure what county that's in, though.

Dempolis is in Marengo County, so it must have been the same storm. It's east of Meridian, the second county over the state line.

[starkvegasdawg]

Dempolis is in Marengo County, so it must have been the same storm. It's east of Meridian, the second county over the state line.

It looked like monster on radar so I'm not surprised. Just proof that it doesn't take a high end outbreak level event with mile wide EF-4's or 5's to be deadly.

[starkvegasdawg]

For those that may care here is the info on the storm I intercepted yesterday. It was rated EF-2. It was actually two different tornadoes. The first lifted just before it got to me and the second touched down just past me. The circulation passed right over the top of me and after reading these survey results and based on what I saw I'm convinced I was seeing wispy bits of funnel cloud pass over and around me. I'm severely pissed my live stream cut out and I don't have that footage to go back and review. So while I officially was not inside my second tornado I was about as close as you can get and not be.

[ScoobaDawg]

For those that may care here is the info on the storm I intercepted yesterday. It was rated EF-2. It was actually two different tornadoes. The first lifted just before it got to me and the second touched down just past me. The circulation passed right over the top of me and after reading these survey results and based on what I saw I'm convinced I was seeing wispy bits of funnel cloud pass over and around me. I'm severely pissed my live stream cut out and I don't have that footage to go back and review. So while I officially was not inside my second tornado I was about as close as you can get and not be.

Glad you are safe bud and thanks for the updates when you could. I saw the storm last night near meridian but it was 20 minutes late so had already passed or i would have posted some updates.
Glad everyone else is safe also..

[yjnkdawg]

Not sure about a free site. The best radar app available is RadarScope and it shows velocities. It's a one time $9.99 for the base set up.


I got the RadarScope Pro about a year ago, for $9.99 per year. I really like it. Thanks Vegas for starting these threads when we have severe weather potential.