How Many Games Can Leach Win Next Year with This Offense?

[ShotgunDawg]

QB - Costello

RB - Hill

WR - Mitchell

WR - Heath

WR - Payton

WR - Tabor/Tulu

WR - Williams

LT - Cross/Eiland

LG - Parker/Smith

C - Sharp/Smith

OL - Reese/Pendley

RT - Lashley/ Dolla Bill

If the WRs can just run Leach's offense & catch the ball, there's a ton of talent on this offense. That OL may be the most talented Leach has ever coached

I love that our first 5 games aren't our toughest. Gives this team a great chance to get in a groove before playing the big boys.

If the WRs improve, which we expect to some degree due to Leach, & the defense is average, this offense can win at least 8 games.

[MetEdDawg]

I honestly think we can win 7 with 8 being realistic possible on how a few of our tougher conference opponents look like TAMU and Auburn.

I'm concerned about how long it will take to get the offense and Leach's ability to play to our current strengths, which is our run game with Hill.

Defensively I'm concerned about the back end giving up a lot of points. But I think we win 3 of our non conference, Arkansas and Missouri. Those are for sure. Between Kentucky, Ole Miss, and NC State I think we win at least 1 of those. Question is can we win 2 out of those 3 and sneak a win at home against Auburn or TAMU. That's what it boils down to for me. 7-5 is the likely outcome.

I think using the phrase "win at least 8" after revamping our offense as drastically as we are and basically rebuilding the entire staff is dangerous territory for unrealistic expectations.

[Commercecomet24]

We have to be realistic and give him a chance to get things going. Win 6 and keep the bowl streak and I'll be happy. Win more than 6 and it's gravy.

[ShotgunDawg]

We have to be realistic and give him a chance to get things going. Win 6 and keep the bowl streak and I'll be happy. Win more than 6 and it's gravy.

I think we'll know more after Spring. If we click, we actually have a good bit of talent to win some games.

[viverlibre]

There are 8 very winnable games on our schedule, that should be our expectation. Even JoMo would have us back in a bowl.

[BeastMan]

There are 8 very winnable games on our schedule, that should be our expectation. Even JoMo would have us back in a bowl.

JoMo would have won 4 games next year

[ShotgunDawg]

Even JoMo would have us back in a bowl.

Whew..... I don't know about this boss

There are 8 on paper that we could win. We also don't know where Auburn or A&M will be when we play them.

A&M has really high hopes for next season. If they lose some early ones, there could be a good bit of frustration

[Commercecomet24]

I think we'll know more after Spring. If we click, we actually have a good bit of talent to win some games.

I agree but I'm worried about us defensively and we don't need to leap unrealistic expectations on Leach. There will be a learning curve for sure. Give it time and enjoy it. If we win more than 6 next year I'll be ecstatic!

[Commercecomet24]

JoMo would have won 4 games next year

This at best. Our program was running off the rails with JoMo and was only getting worse

[msstate7]

Whew..... I don't know about this boss

There are 8 on paper that we could win. We also don't know where Auburn or A&M will be when we play them.

A&M has really high hopes for next season. If they lose some early ones, there could be a good bit of frustration

aTm schedule...
ACU
North Texas
Colorado
Ark
State

They will vs 4-0 when we play them

[HoopsDawg]

I hope KT makes a commitment to playing WR.

[msstate7]

I hope KT makes a commitment to playing WR.

If nothing else, he'd be a good bubble screen guy with his running ability

[KOdawg1]

8 if we get some immediate help on defense. Some guys will have to grow up fast.

[ShotgunDawg]

aTm schedule...
ACU
North Texas
Colorado
Ark
State

They will vs 4-0 when we play them

And Fresno State right after us.

Ugh. We'll be there "time to step up game"

Who knows though, maybe we'll be in a groove

[Commercecomet24]

I hope KT makes a commitment to playing WR.

I do too! I think he could be a good one with his size, speed and agility

[Coursesuper]

I agree but I'm worried about us defensively and we don't need to leap unrealistic expectations on Leach. There will be a learning curve for sure. Give it time and enjoy it. If we win more than 6 next year I'll be ecstatic!

This is it, huge questions everywhere and things need to shake out. Winning 6 is good and winning anymore is all just lagniappe.

[confucius say]

And Fresno State right after us.

Ugh. We'll be there "time to step up game"

Who knows though, maybe we'll be in a groove

They also won't played anybody when they play is either. Untested. No physical DL opponent.

[ShotgunDawg]

They also won't played anybody when they play is either. Untested. No physical DL opponent.

We're nobody?

[viverlibre]

Whew..... I don't know about this boss

There are 8 on paper that we could win. We also don't know where Auburn or A&M will be when we play them.

A&M has really high hopes for next season. If they lose some early ones, there could be a good bit of frustration


Sept. 5: at home vs. New Mexico Win
Sept. 12: on the road against North Carolina State Winnable
Sept. 19: at home versus Arkansas Win
Sept. 26: at home versus Tulane Win
Oct. 3: at home versus Texas A&M
Oct. 10: OPEN WEEK
Oct. 17: on the road against Alabama
Oct. 24 on the road against LSU
Oct. 31: at home versus Auburn
Nov. 7: at home versus Missouri Win
Nov. 14: on the road against Kentucky Winnable
Nov. 21: at home versus Alabama A&M Win
Nov. 26: on the road against Ole Miss Winnable

There are 5 for sure wins and 3 more winnable. Win 7 of those and upset one of these TAMU, AU, UAT, LSU (I think LSU is going to be pedestrian). 8 wins is our expectation.

[msstate7]

They also won't played anybody when they play is either. Untested. No physical DL opponent.

We play New Mexico, nc state, ark, and Tulane before them, so doubtful we will have either.

[dawgday166]

Easily 11-1.

[Commercecomet24]

Easily 11-1.

That you 007 lol?

[Coach34]

7 is our ceiling

We wont be very good on D in 2020.

[dawgday166]

That you 007 lol?

LOL Naw ... just trying to give Gun what he's wanting to hear. Everybody's beatable and Bama better beware ****

[Commercecomet24]

LOL Naw ... just trying to give Gun what he's wanting to hear. Everybody's beatable and Bama better beware ****

lol it was a good one!

[msstate7]

7 is our ceiling

We wont be very good on D in 2020.

7 regular season wins, I'd sign up right now. I think we could be pretty good in 2021

[Santiago]

And Fresno State right after us.

Ugh. We'll be there "time to step up game"

Who knows though, maybe we'll be in a groove

Arkansas gives the AGGIES a fight every year. I would imagine they will be tested really well in that game. It always seems as a close game, and one that Arkansas goes all out to win.

[Coach34]

Sept. 5: at home vs. New Mexico Win
Sept. 12: on the road against North Carolina State Winnable
Sept. 19: at home versus Arkansas Win
Sept. 26: at home versus Tulane Win
Oct. 3: at home versus Texas A&M
Oct. 10: OPEN WEEK
Oct. 17: on the road against Alabama
Oct. 24 on the road against LSU
Oct. 31: at home versus Auburn
Nov. 7: at home versus Missouri Win
Nov. 14: on the road against Kentucky Winnable
Nov. 21: at home versus Alabama A&M Win
Nov. 26: on the road against Ole Miss Winnable

There are 5 for sure wins and 3 more winnable. Win 7 of those and upset one of these TAMU, AU, UAT, LSU (I think LSU is going to be pedestrian). 8 wins is our expectation.

I think we lose Kentucky, Bama, and LSU for sure. Kentucky will be at home and returns 16-17 starters.
NC State should be improved with all the starters they return and we play there. Toss-up
A&M likely beats us. They are better and return 17-18 starters
Mizzou returns 19 starters including 10 starters on a top 20 rated defense. New coach and new QB could be a good thing or take time. We dont know. Toss-up
Auburn's passing game will be better and the back end of their D should be good. They have trench questions and their recruiting will have to live up to the hype. Toss-up

We have alot of holes to fill on D and will be doing a 180 on offense. We were not good on D this year and lose most of our best players. Too many holes
At OM will be very exciting as we go for 3 in a row and Kiffin works to make them better.

[Coursesuper]

That you 007 lol?

I believe he b dancin on the pack.

[Jarius]

Calling Kentucky Unwinnable is being a complete troll. We have beaten them about 9 of the past 11 years or so. They don't recruit well. They have a coach that wins about 7 games a year. We could lose on the road. It's not a forgone conclusion.

[Dawgface]

I would take 7-5 in a heartbeat. My hope is we are a little more competitive in the losses.

[Coach34]

Calling Kentucky Unwinnable is being a complete troll. We have beaten them about 9 of the past 11 years or so. They don't recruit well. They have a coach that wins about 7 games a year. We could lose on the road. It's not a forgone conclusion.

Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place and won more games than we have the last 4 years. They return 16-17 starters and will be pretty damn good in 2020. 2020 is our transition year. You guys acting like a team that has been 65% run the last 4 years and is going to suddenly transition to 65% pass with no problems are insane.

[Cowbell]

These kind of threads drive me nuts. Why even talk about this before a spring game. Some of you are already setting yourselves up for disappointment. Let this play out.

[Jarius]

Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place and won more games than we have the last 4 years. They return 16-17 starters and will be pretty damn good in 2020. 2020 is our transition year. You guys acting like a team that has been 65% run the last 4 years and is going to suddenly transition to 65% pass with no problems are insane.

Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place? How does that matter at all? We have beaten them 9 of the past 11 years. We beat them by like 3 touchdowns with a freshman quarterback this year. They have been pretty damn good once in your lifetime and that was 2 years ago. They aren't going to be pretty damn good. They are going to be the same 7-5 in the bad sec east that that they have been since Mullen started whipping their ass a decade ago.put them in the sec West the last 4 years with MSU as a crossover opponent and stoops is not their coach any more.

[Coach34]

Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place? How does that matter at all? We have beaten them 9 of the past 11 years. We beat them by like 3 touchdowns with a freshman quarterback this year. They have been pretty damn good once in your lifetime and that was 2 years ago. They aren't going to be pretty damn good. They are going to be the same 7-5 in the bad sec east that that they have been since Mullen started whipping their ass a decade ago.

Gotta love message boards. Kentucky went 8-5 and returns 17 starters. Signed a better recruiting class than us. But our 6-7 ass who returns only 11 starters and has no pass rush is going to go to Kentucky and win because by gosh- we have a Pirate. Hell yeah!!!!

[Todd4State]

It's impossible to base a team projection on just one side of the ball.

We still have too many unknowns. BUT given that offense I think the floor is 6 wins and the ceiling is 10. That's a lot of variability but it's because:

1. We don't know how quickly it will take our guys to adapt to Leach's offense. Personally I think we will adapt quickly. Getting Costello affects this some- the ceiling probably goes up with him.

2. Defensively I think we will be improved. We won't have to deal with Tutor Gate. The biggest question is still unofficially who our DC will be and how the JUCO's will adapt and if we add any grad transfers there.

3. Special teams will be better. This unit cost us at least one loss last year. We return good kickers and we added Ruiz to help with kickoffs. Brock is a huge upgrade over Jones.

4. S&C will be improved. This alone also cost us a game last year. I really think that we're going to be a lot better than people think because of this alone. S&C isn't just about getting stronger. It's about athleticism, injury prevention, flexibility, building speed and endurance. We really suffered with this last year big time. People like Errol Thompson are going to look like completely different players.

Actually all things considered- the fact that we were able to win six games with our culture issues, mass suspensions, and lack of S&C is a positive in that it means we have the raw talent to turn things around pretty quickly with changes. Which we obviously have made. Most teams with those issues end up like Arkansas. And that may have eventually happened with Moorhead if we allowed him to stay around long enough.

[ShotgunDawg]

Ugh

I should've known that a win/loss thread would end up causing the same stupid debates.

I was hoping this thread would actually discuss the offensive depth chart. Whiff on my part

[Jarius]

Our 4 year composite is higher than theirs by about 10 spots. Try again. Gotta love message boards. They play in the sec East. Comparing those 2 schedules is absolutely idiotic. We just beat them by 3 touchdowns with a guy that you could outcoach. Their quarterback who saved their mediocre coach also entered the draft. Thinking we have a good shot at beating Kentucky doesn't make me a homer.

[OLJWales]

We are going to win more than many skeptics like 34 think. Leach can beat you with his and can beat you with yours. We could not have landed a better guy and Leach knows the capabilities here and that's why he took the gig. The no bullshit genius is about to embark on a very memorable journey where his talent pool is no longer at such disadvantages he had in the past. I've never been so anxious for fall.

[Coach34]

Our 4 year composite is higher than theirs by about 10 spots. Try again. Gotta love message boards. They play in the sec East. Comparing those 2 schedules is absolutely idiotic. We just beat them by 3 touchdowns with a guy that you could outcoach. Their quarterback who saved their mediocre coach also entered the draft.

They beat us by 3 TD's at their place in 2018. So you can throw that out the window. And there is very little difference in recruiting at 25th vs 35th. Anything past 15th in the country in recruiting is a guess.

[dawgday166]

Gotta love message boards. Kentucky went 8-5 and returns 17 starters. Signed a better recruiting class than us. But our 6-7 ass who returns only 11 starters and has no pass rush is going to go to Kentucky and win because by gosh- we have a Pirate. Hell yeah!!!!

I don't think it's the Pirate. Pretty sure a lot of folks were predicting this with SloppyMo coming back. Historically speaking we're 1 game up on Ky and that's after Mullen owned them 8 outta 9 years. But ... by gawd we're just much better than them every year.

Folks don't want to give Stoops credit for establishing a tough, hard-nosed team up there now either.

[Jarius]

Ugh

I should've known that a win/loss thread would end up causing the same stupid debates.

I was hoping this thread would actually discuss the offensive depth chart. Whiff on my part

I would love to discuss the depth chart. We need a grad transfer qb really bad. If we get Costello we have qb figured out. I like what Leach is doing with the OL especially with Lashley. Hill will be a real threat out of the backfield m. I think Austin Williams and Payton will be the biggest benefactors of this coaching change.

[dawgday166]

I'm waiting to see on depth chart myself. I believe there may be some attrition on the way. And maybe some additions too. At least Lashley and a few Mullen leftovers will know what it's like to work hard.

[Jarius]

They beat us by 3 TD's at their place in 2018. So you can throw that out the window. And there is very little difference in recruiting at 25th vs 35th. Anything past 15th in the country in recruiting is a guess.

You are the one that brought recruiting up, genius. No one that beat us in 2018 is there any more. They have gone through 2 quarterbacks since then. We may lose the game. It's not a sure loss and will very much be a tossup.

[ShotgunDawg]

I don't think it's the Pirate. Pretty sure a lot of folks were predicting this with SloppyMo coming back. Historically speaking we're 1 game up on Ky and that's after Mullen owned them 8 outta 9 years. But ... by gawd we're just much better than them every year.

Folks don't want to give Stoops credit for establishing a tough, hard-nosed team up there now either.

What I've found with Kentucky is that we just have to play well.

If we play well, we beat them & there isn't much they can do about it.

[Jarius]

What I've found with Kentucky is that we just have to play well.

If we play well, we beat them & there isn't much they can do about it.

Yep. Outside of 2018 when it was a monsoon and they had the only legit defense they have had in the past 40 years.

[Pennywise]

QB - Costello
RB - Hill
WR - Mitchell
WR - Heath
WR - Payton
WR - Tabor/Tulu
WR - Williams
LT - Cross/Eiland
LG - Parker/Smith
C - Sharp/Smith
OL - Reese/Pendley
RT - Lashley/ Dolla Bill
If the WRs can just run Leach's offense & catch the ball, there's a ton of talent on this offense. That OL may be the most talented Leach has ever coached
I love that our first 5 games aren't our toughest. Gives this team a great chance to get in a groove before playing the big boys.
If the WRs improve, which we expect to some degree due to Leach, & the defense is average, this offense can win at least 8 games.
One thing is for sure... the MSU beat writers will be at spring and preseason practices and make folks believe we should win about 10 games.

[Coach34]

We are going to win more than many skeptics like 34 think. Leach can beat you with his and can beat you with yours. We could not have landed a better guy and Leach knows the capabilities here and that's why he took the gig. The no bullshit genius is about to embark on a very memorable journey where his talent pool is no longer at such disadvantages he had in the past. I've never been so anxious for fall.

Texas Tech went 6-5 the year before Leach. No bowl game because of lack of bowl games then. Leach went 7-6 the next season thanks to a 12th game being added.

Washington State was 4-8 the year before Leach. Leach went 3-9 the next season- 1 game worse than the previous coach as he began to flip the roster

To think he will suddenly improve State by 2-3 games in Year 1 with our roster is lunacy.

[RezDog7]

Gotta love message boards. Kentucky went 8-5 and returns 17 starters. Signed a better recruiting class than us. But our 6-7 ass who returns only 11 starters and has no pass rush is going to go to Kentucky and win because by gosh- we have a Pirate. Hell yeah!!!!

Why can't we just agree that we need to get to 6 wins and then go from there. Let's not start out with unrealistic expectations for CML. However, I would think Kentucky is just as winnable as it is loseable. Let's not act like they are unbeatable.

[ShotgunDawg]

One thing is for sure... the MSU beat writers will be at spring and preseason practices and make folks believe we should win about 10 games.

That's fine. I prefer excitement over a black cloud

[OLJWales]

They beat us by 3 TD's at their place in 2018. So you can throw that out the window. And there is very little difference in recruiting at 25th vs 35th. Anything past 15th in the country in recruiting is a guess.

You're acting like we have the same coach.

[dawgday166]

One thing is for sure... the MSU beat writers will be at spring and preseason practices and make folks believe we should win about 10 games.

I don't understand this thinking every year like it seems to be these days. I've thought that in 2014 and 2018. Outside of those years I haven't seen 10 regular season wins any year except maybe 1 or 2 under Jackie.

Now we got folks predicting 9 or 10 wins regardless of youth/inexperience, young QBs starting, what kind of coaching turnover we have, etc. I just SMH at that.

We've had like 3 maybe 4 10 win seasons in our entire history I think.

[Pennywise]

I don't understand this thinking every year like it seems to be these days. I've thought that in 2014 and 2018. Outside of those years I haven't seen 10 regular season wins any year except maybe 1 or 2 under Jackie.

Now we got folks predicting 9 or 10 wins regardless of youth/inexperience, young QBs starting, what kind of coaching turnover we have, etc. I just SMH at that.

We've had like 3 maybe 4 10 win seasons in our entire history I think.

It's all about the clicks...

[Coach34]

You're acting like we have the same coach.

We have hired a better coach. But we are in a rebuilding year in 2020. The "rebuilding year" bullshit JoVester tried to spew for 2019 was ridiculous. Our team in 2019 was better talent-wise and had more experience than ours will be in 2020. 2020 was going to be a rebuild with JoVester. Now, its a rebuild and transition year with Leach.

We need to hope we win 6 games and keep the bowl streak alive. That will be a good season. Anything better than that is gravy. 8-9 wins aint happening with a completely new offense and a D with no pass rush, weak at LB, and a new Secondary. Especially considering we will play 75 plays a game on D.

[Dawgcap]

Bottom line is we won’t know till fall practice gets here. Will players stay? Improve? Players he’ll with new staff? It’s amaz to me people adamant about results next year when we have no clue on so many variables. This decision was made to move us forward in the future. Not necessarily this year. Let things play out in the upcoming months and then the muddy water will settle and become more clear

[Dawgcap]

Gel not He’ll

[Coursesuper]

One thing is for sure... the MSU beat writers will be at spring and preseason practices and make folks believe we should win about 10 games.

There are already way to many here that are falling for the fan media bullshit. I don't care who is brought in with a grad transfer there are so many questions to be answered I don't feel good predicting 6 wins. These guys feet are barely on the ground and predicting or expecting 8 wins is just not realistic in any way shape form or fashion. Just grasping and blowing like your brethren to the north.

[Coach34]

Agree about waiting until we know what happens after Spring. I wont be surprised if we see guys like Austin Williams and a Dontae Jones transfer due to playing time. We bring in a transfer QB and then a guy like Mayden may want out- maybe even Shrader.

There is going to be some roster shake-up after Spring Practice as guys see they dont fit in the new scheme. Both sides of the ball.

[Spiderman]

QB - Costello

RB - Hill

WR - Mitchell

WR - Heath

WR - Payton

WR - Tabor/Tulu

WR - Williams

LT - Cross/Eiland

LG - Parker/Smith

C - Sharp/Smith

OL - Reese/Pendley

RT - Lashley/ Dolla Bill

If the WRs can just run Leach's offense & catch the ball, there's a ton of talent on this offense. That OL may be the most talented Leach has ever coached

I love that our first 5 games aren't our toughest. Gives this team a great chance to get in a groove before playing the big boys.

If the WRs improve, which we expect to some degree due to Leach, & the defense is average, this offense can win at least 8 games.

Who knows? Have to put them out there and see who buys in and gets it. I bet there are some starters not even listed above

[Cooterpoot]

We'll win 6 no matter what. I'm leaning towards 7. Our schedule isn't terrible. SEC is going to be a little down as far as the top teams (AL returns a lot). If we had LBs I'd feel real good.
Going to be fun!

[ShotgunDawg]

C34 when he sees a win/loss thread

https://media0.giphy.com/media/RIjMToqRdihWBDhGtm/giphy.gif

[TrapGame]

I think we can win 7 games. We will upset somebody. My guess is Auburn. They lost a lot of talent off the OL and DL. And we have them in DWS.

[Coach34]

I think we can win 7 games. We will upset somebody. My guess is Auburn. They lost a lot of talent off the OL and DL. And we have them in DWS.

If we can pull one- they are certainly one of them

[RougeDawg]

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

[dawgday166]

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

Talent maybe. Experience not so much. This is more like Mullen's 2016 team. It probably will be somewhat of a roller coaster next year.

[Todd4State]

Talent maybe. Experience not so much. This is more like Mullen's 2016 team. It probably will be somewhat of a roller coaster next year.

Or his 2017 team where we were coming off of a six win season but added some key transfers and upgraded from Sirmon to Grantham. Changes can make a big difference sometimes. It's a lot more unpredictable when we don't know what we have because of so many changes plus we don't really know how the grad transfer thing is going to totally shake out at this point.

[Jarius]

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

Exactly. I'm basing my prediction next year on what a competent coach should accomplish. The reason we went 6-6 last year was because we were completely incompetent at the head coaching position. Leach is inheriting a team that should have won 8 games last year. He can just win the games against teams he out talents and go 8-4. He could beat Auburn and A&M and/or lose to Kentucky / Missouri / Ole Miss. This idea that we should be grateful for 6 wins is horse shit. He's inheriting an underachieving team. He needs to make them achieve to their talent level.

[dawgday166]

Or his 2017 team where we were coming off of a six win season but added some key transfers and upgraded from Sirmon to Grantham. Changes can make a big difference sometimes. It's a lot more unpredictable when we don't know what we have because of so many changes plus we don't really know how the grad transfer thing is going to totally shake out at this point.

Maybe so but a lot of things have to fall just right for that to happen. Just like they did with Mullen on all the in-state Jucos that had D1 experience and were studs.

ETA: I would guess the odds are pretty long for that same scenario again this year. And Mullen's QB was used to the system and had led the SEC in Total O the year before.

[TXDawg]

I’ve got us at 8 wins going into the UMiss game.

No idea who wins the Egg Bowl, but it’ll be interesting no matter what.

[dawgday166]

I’ve got us at 8 wins going into the UMiss game.

No idea who wins the Egg Bowl, but it’ll be interesting no matter what.

TAM or AU or you just saying we split those two?

[BeardoMSU]

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

Good post, Rouge. Context is key.

[TUSK]

4 pages and I've yet to read a post that said, "I'll take that bet."


booooooooooooooooooooo.

[BeardoMSU]

4 pages and I've yet to read a post that said, "I'll take that bet."


booooooooooooooooooooo.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi1LMIUOOAI

[Todd4State]

Maybe so but a lot of things have to fall just right for that to happen. Just like they did with Mullen on all the in-state Jucos that had D1 experience and were studs.

ETA: I would guess the odds are pretty long for that same scenario again this year. And Mullen's QB was used to the system and had led the SEC in Total O the year before.

Exactly. It's a complete wild card. We could have 1999 or 2017 JUCO's. Or we could have Arizona Western JUCO's. Typically it takes six games or so for them to get acclimated. And of course the grad transfer market is something that didn't exist in 1999 and something that we didn't really take advantage of in 2017.

[TXDawg]

TAM or AU or you just saying we split those two?

I'm saying we split those two. Not sure which one we get, but I think we'll take one of them.

[dawgday166]

I'm saying we split those two. Not sure which one we get, but I think we'll take one of them.

I can see an upset like one of these but I also foresee a WTF game ... or 2.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

The talent factor, good or bad, is easier for me to put my finger on. My questions are how quickly do the players buy in to this staff? Are there any culture issues in the locker room that can't be overcome? Do some veterans push back against a new way of doing things?

These coaches are going to tighten some stuff up. There is always some push back, and there could be some players leave.

Getting to 6 wins isn't that hard in this league. It's trying to get more than 7 or 8 where things get tough. Mullen knew that. Beating the non-conference teams, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Kentucky, etc. is so much easier than trying to consistently beat LSU or Bama.

With Moorhead, two freshmen starting at defensive tackle, and a true freshman QB, we weren't far from 8 wins (Tennessee and Kansas State).

[dawgday166]

I'm thinking we lose some to attrition. Newberry says he plays the guys that are laying it all out there ... and they may not be the most talented guys. I think Leach is the same way.

So some of us may see a player or 2 flash if they get in the game but behind the scenes ... they may be slacking and Leach/Newberry sitting them most of time cause of that.

[OLJWales]

We have hired a better coach. But we are in a rebuilding year in 2020. The "rebuilding year" bullshit JoVester tried to spew for 2019 was ridiculous. Our team in 2019 was better talent-wise and had more experience than ours will be in 2020. 2020 was going to be a rebuild with JoVester. Now, its a rebuild and transition year with Leach.

We need to hope we win 6 games and keep the bowl streak alive. That will be a good season. Anything better than that is gravy. 8-9 wins aint happening with a completely new offense and a D with no pass rush, weak at LB, and a new Secondary. Especially considering we will play 75 plays a game on D.

I'm thinking though that our roster was allowed to ride The Good Ship Lollipop during the off season and that's about to change dramatically. You do make some good points though regarding Leach's first seasons at T. Tech and WSU that were not total 180's from the previous.

I'm remembering how different our team played Mullen's first year. Maybe Leach is gonna use his more experienced mind this time and make a big difference season 1 with a new team. Maybe a stronger, more disciplined and more physical team will give us a better roster than what we think we have.

[BogeyGolfer]

QB - Costello

RB - Hill

WR - Mitchell

WR - Heath

WR - Payton

WR - Tabor/Tulu

WR - Williams

LT - Cross/Eiland

LG - Parker/Smith

C - Sharp/Smith

OL - Reese/Pendley

RT - Lashley/ Dolla Bill

If the WRs can just run Leach's offense & catch the ball, there's a ton of talent on this offense. That OL may be the most talented Leach has ever coached

I love that our first 5 games aren't our toughest. Gives this team a great chance to get in a groove before playing the big boys.

If the WRs improve, which we expect to some degree due to Leach, & the defense is average, this offense can win at least 8 games.

Who is the Starkville High WR that we signed last year that played in a few games? He has great size, and I think will do well in Leach's system...Cam something, I'm too lazy to look it up.

[Johnson85]

Texas Tech went 6-5 the year before Leach. No bowl game because of lack of bowl games then. Leach went 7-6 the next season thanks to a 12th game being added.

Washington State was 4-8 the year before Leach. Leach went 3-9 the next season- 1 game worse than the previous coach as he began to flip the roster

To think he will suddenly improve State by 2-3 games in Year 1 with our roster is lunacy.

the difference is neither Tech nor WSU had the advantage of having 6 and maybe 7 games where they had a talent advantage. We have major talent issues for an SEC team and we probably aren't going to be competitive against good SEC teams. But we are not G5 team bad. We have 3 games we should win OOC. NCSt gets to return a lot of players but they were pretty bad last year. Arkansas is a mess and basically hired their version of Matt Luke. Not saying he won't be successful, but it's asking a lot to expect him to turn that team around in one year. Ole Miss has a new coach but they have significant talent issues. We squeaked out a win against them this year when we had Moorhead and they had one pretty good and one really good coordinator. UK was better than us by the end of this year, but we still out talented them (hence us being able to win, even at home, because we sure as hell didn't outcoach them).

We probably aren't winning 8 because there are a lot of unknowns, but we should win six and getting to 8 wouldn't take some incredible string of luck. It would require our players responding to coaching and having the ball bounce our way in our two toughest toss up games. Or alternatively snagging a good transfer WR or finding out that coaching was holding our WRs back and they aren't as bad as they've looked.

The lack of talent in our WR corp is our biggest issue to me. If we had an average group of SEC receivers, I think we'd likely be an 8 win team even with the transition issues and talent issues on D. We just don't have to be that good of a team next year to win 8 games. We'd have to be much, much better to win 9 games (or have a horse shoe stuck up our ass), but we play 8 not very good teams next year.

[Johnson85]

Sept. 5: at home vs. New Mexico Win
Sept. 12: on the road against North Carolina State Winnable
Sept. 19: at home versus Arkansas Win
Sept. 26: at home versus Tulane Win
Oct. 3: at home versus Texas A&M
Oct. 10: OPEN WEEK
Oct. 17: on the road against Alabama
Oct. 24 on the road against LSU
Oct. 31: at home versus Auburn
Nov. 7: at home versus Missouri Win
Nov. 14: on the road against Kentucky Winnable
Nov. 21: at home versus Alabama A&M Win
Nov. 26: on the road against Ole Miss Winnable

There are 5 for sure wins and 3 more winnable. Win 7 of those and upset one of these TAMU, AU, UAT, LSU (I think LSU is going to be pedestrian). 8 wins is our expectation.

8 wins is what happens if everything goes right. That is not the expectation unless you just want to set yourself up for disappointment.

[Johnson85]

Exactly. I'm basing my prediction next year on what a competent coach should accomplish. The reason we went 6-6 last year was because we were completely incompetent at the head coaching position. Leach is inheriting a team that should have won 8 games last year. He can just win the games against teams he out talents and go 8-4. He could beat Auburn and A&M and/or lose to Kentucky / Missouri / Ole Miss. This idea that we should be grateful for 6 wins is horse shit. He's inheriting an underachieving team. He needs to make them achieve to their talent level.

Leach is inheriting the returning players from a team that should have gone 8-4 last year. We didn't have much in the way of playmakers on D this year and we are losing two of them (our best two?). We also are extremely weak at WR, which seems kind of important when you are intending to implement an air raid offense. I think we have 8 winnable games on our schedule this upcoming year, but as long as we get 6 and play hard, I don't think Leach will be underachieving considering our talent and implementing a new offense when we are missing some key ingredients for the offense.

[Coach34]

Just saw that Auburn has the week off to get ready for us. That does us no favors

[BogeyGolfer]

This is it, huge questions everywhere and things need to shake out. Winning 6 is good and winning anymore is all just lagniappe.

I agree, get to 6 wins and see improvement throughout the year...7 if we really improve...That's the main issue with me is I want to see us get better, good coaches make players better.

[Commercecomet24]

Leach is inheriting the returning players from a team that should have gone 8-4 last year. We didn't have much in the way of playmakers on D this year and we are losing two of them (our best two?). We also are extremely weak at WR, which seems kind of important when you are intending to implement an air raid offense. I think we have 8 winnable games on our schedule this upcoming year, but as long as we get 6 and play hard, I don't think Leach will be underachieving considering our talent and implementing a new offense when we are missing some key ingredients for the offense.

This. Well said.

[OLJWales]

NC State went 4-8 last year. We have UPIG at home. That should be 5 W's right there assuming we can hold serve at home vs an improved Tulane team.

A&M at home, At Bama, At LSU, MO at home, AU at home, at KY & at Upiss. That group gives us a minimum of 2 more wins. LSU will still be LSU but they are gonna drop off significantly.

My biggest concern is that Leach seems to always have a WTF game or 2 every year. Maybe he'll have access to some good blockers and RB's that he can run some clock once he gets a 2 TD or more lead that limits our opponents to ability to get back in the game. I'm thinking that's the reason he's blown some leads in the past creating those WTF games.

[Percho]

Yep. Outside of 2018 when it was a monsoon and they had the only legit defense they have had in the past 40 years.

Also one of the worse officiated games e v e r.

[BB30]

Kentucky has beaten us the last 2 games at their place? How does that matter at all? We have beaten them 9 of the past 11 years. We beat them by like 3 touchdowns with a freshman quarterback this year. They have been pretty damn good once in your lifetime and that was 2 years ago. They aren't going to be pretty damn good. They are going to be the same 7-5 in the bad sec east that that they have been since Mullen started whipping their ass a decade ago.put them in the sec West the last 4 years with MSU as a crossover opponent and stoops is not their coach any more.

This is why our fans get so disappointed year after year in just about every sport. Unrealistic expectations. You don't raise the bar by having unrealistic expectations you raise it by putting in the work and building a program which is what Howland is having to do right now.

It will take time for Leach to get things rolling. I just hope we don't have fans freaking out at the first sign of deficiencies. Gotta give him time to build his team which is in my opinion a minimum of 3 years before we will know exactly how successful he will be here.

Shotgun does this every year. By the time season starts we will have some predicting 9 wins and when we don't reach that benchmark they will be claiming that Leach isn't going to work and they knew it from the time he was hired. In all reality the next two years are going to be transition years it is what it is. I would love to eat some crow on that but I don't see more than 7 wins this year and 8 next year with the floor being 5 and 6 win seasons.

[Lord McBuckethead]

Yep.

[BB30]

NC State went 4-8 last year. We have UPIG at home. That should be 5 W's right there assuming we can hold serve at home vs an improved Tulane team.

A&M at home, At Bama, At LSU, MO at home, AU at home, at KY & at Upiss. That group gives us a minimum of 2 more wins. LSU will still be LSU but they are gonna drop off significantly.

My biggest concern is that Leach seems to always have a WTF game or 2 every year. Maybe he'll have access to some good blockers and RB's that he can run some clock once he gets a 2 TD or more lead that limits our opponents to ability to get back in the game. I'm thinking that's the reason he's blown some leads in the past creating those WTF games.

There is absolutely zero chance we beat LSU next year. They will take a step back but not that far. They stil return some unbelievable talent at the WR position.

[Jarius]

This is why our fans get so disappointed year after year in just about every sport. Unrealistic expectations. You don't raise the bar by having unrealistic expectations you raise it by putting in the work and building a program which is what Howland is having to do right now.

It will take time for Leach to get things rolling. I just hope we don't have fans freaking out at the first sign of deficiencies. Gotta give him time to build his team which is in my opinion a minimum of 3 years before we will know exactly how successful he will be here.

Shotgun does this every year. By the time season starts we will have some predicting 9 wins and when we don't reach that benchmark they will be claiming that Leach isn't going to work and they knew it from the time he was hired. In all reality the next two years are going to be transition years it is what it is. I would love to eat some crow on that but I don't see more than 7 wins this year and 8 next year with the floor being 5 and 6 win seasons.

I am not setting unrealistic expectations. I'm calling Kentucky a tossup game. They were not good this year and have not been good outside of 1 year in a very long time. Reading is fundamental. If beating a team that we have beaten 9 of the past 11 years who we outrecruit every year would surprise anyone on here then they simply have not been paying attention.

[DLGDawg]

Let me point some things out for those of you on the fence about winning more than 6 games. The 2018 team should have won 10 games minimum. 2019, 8 games minimum. The one factor that created the net -2 wins per season is no longer here.

So in reality, Leach is stepping into an 8 win team talent wise. Any semblance of an offense and it should result in a similar potential output that 2019 had. So it really is not unreasonable to think 7-8 wins is impossible.

How many of your minds would change if Mike Leach was taking over an 8-4 regular season team, despite the culture issues? Once again you cannot base a conclusion by picking and choosing input data. Everything has to be computed, most of all the net -2 win factor of JoVester. Take that away and change the culture, and this team still has the talent to get to 8 wins with expected output. The unknown is the ML factor, which should be a net positive, based on track record.

Absolutely Rouge.
1) there is no way to predict wins and losses for next year until we see who suits up when fall practice starts. Like in travel baseball, you pick up three good sticks and two more good pitchers, you go from AA to AAA/major. With football you won't see that big of jump because of the depth needed and injuries etc.

2) when Jackie Sherrill became our coach, he took a crap team from the year before and his firSt year you could "just tell" we were way better.
Same thing with Mullen. His first year we could just tell that we were a much better team. Pitch it to boobie and we go bowling.

IMO we really don't know how good or bad our talent is. Leach is gonna pull the best out of them though. I firmly believe that. But some key pieces may not be man enough for what will be required of them now. That could have a negative offset of any player that we might pull from the transfer portal.

Just way too many variables like others have said.
But I know this, I was against this hire at first. The more I have learned about coach Leach, I believe he is absolutely what we need to right the ship at this point in our history !!
Hail State.

[Coach34]

Some things not working in our favor:

We come out of our off week to face away games at Bama and at LSU- then turn around to play Auburn and Mizzou at home. Both Auburn and Mizzou have offweeks before us so thy will have 2 weeks to get ready for Leach. Not ideal for us in a toss-up game. We also play Kentucky in mid-November this year....so we can expect some cold and nasty weather most likely. Not ideal for the team planning to throw 45-50 passes

NC State doesnt have an opening game before us- so they will have tape of us and we will come in blind. Of course- we will have worked some kinks out while they wont. Makes that game more interesting there as well

[OLJWales]

I am not setting unrealistic expectations. I'm calling Kentucky a tossup game. They were not good this year and have not been good outside of 1 year in a very long time. Reading is fundamental. If beating a team that we have beaten 9 of the past 11 years who we outrecruit every year would surprise anyone on here then they simply have not been paying attention.

KY has kicked their crooting up a notch lately. Don't be surprised if they are pretty decent this year. Will be a tough road game IMO.

[Johnson85]

KY has kicked their crooting up a notch lately. Don't be surprised if they are pretty decent this year. Will be a tough road game IMO.

Going to be interesting to see whether UK has turned a corner with Stoops and will basically be the equivalent of Mullen's MSU teams (minus 2014) or whether they are going to revert to form going forward.

ETA: Kentucky's records under Stoops:

2013 Kentucky 2–10 0–8 7th (Eastern)
2014 Kentucky 5–7 2–6 6th (Eastern)
2015 Kentucky 5–7 2–6 T–4th (Eastern)
2016 Kentucky 7–6 4–4 T–2nd (Eastern) L TaxSlayer
2017 Kentucky 7–6 4–4 T–3rd (Eastern) L Music City
2018 Kentucky 10–3 5–3 T–2nd (Eastern) W Citrus 11 12
2019 Kentucky 8–5 3–5 T–4th (Eastern) W Belk


This is his first year that was down from the year before really.

[Jarius]

KY has kicked their crooting up a notch lately. Don't be surprised if they are pretty decent this year. Will be a tough road game IMO.

I fully expect it to be a good game. We could win it or lose it. They are 3-5 against the sec West the past 4 years and have only played 1 team that finished in the top 4 of the sec West during that time frame. They are a very mediocre program that is extremely fortunate to play in the East.

They recruited better this year, but the only reason they are ahead of us at the moment is because they have 1 more commit than we do currently. That could change depending on how many more guys Leach takes in this class. Every other year prior to this one they recruit in the mid 30s. That's good enough to go about 5-7 in the West every year unless you have an outstanding coach like a Dan Mullen. Stoops is no Mullen.

[Jarius]

KY has kicked their crooting up a notch lately. Don't be surprised if they are pretty decent this year. Will be a tough road game IMO.

I fully expect it to be a good game. We could win it or lose it. They are 3-5 against the sec West the past 4 years and have only played 1 team that finished in the top 4 of the sec West during that time frame. They are a very mediocre program. If Dan Mullen got to play Stoops' schedule during his time at MSU our field would already be renamed after him.

[dantheman4248]

Tulane, New Mexico, AA&M, Ark

Bare minimum win those.

NCState, UK, Mizzou, Old Myth

A coach worth having can take this talent (especially given the roster in the OP) and win minimum 2 games of those 4. So with that measure, 6 wins should be our expectation. Any less is disappointment.

LSU, Auburn

Depends on who they bring back and who they get to replace in key positions. However both will be worse next year than this past year. A great coach could pull an upset.

A&M

It's Jimbo year 3 and they are primed for a big run. But it's also A&M and they somehow perennially underachieve. This is also winnable.

Alabama

Talent disparity is big here. Until we beat Saban it's hard to say this is winnable yet. Maybe there is cracks in the armour finally; however, I doubt it.


With all that, Ceiling is 11. Basement is 4. Disappointment is below 6. Realistic goal is 8. Anyone operating with higher expectations and being disappointed with a 6 or 7 win season is setting themselves up for failure. Anyone expecting more than 8 is also setting themselves up for failure.

With that being said I'm probably going to pick 10-2 or 11-1 by the time we preseason predictions come around because wool will be thick.

[BeardoMSU]

With that being said I'm probably going to pick 10-2 or 11-1 by the time we preseason predictions come around because wool will be thick.

http://38.media.tumblr.com/bd522b1c6c030cae46a87c18c154b0ae/tumblr_n6ojtdWZKI1tbh1dho1_400.gif

Love your optimism, though :)

[Mjoelner34]

With Leach I see 6 with a fighting chance at 8. If we'd kept Shitshow Joe, I'd see 4 with a fighting chance at 6.

[dantheman4248]

http://38.media.tumblr.com/bd522b1c6c030cae46a87c18c154b0ae/tumblr_n6ojtdWZKI1tbh1dho1_400.gif

Love your optimism, though :)

College football's best commodity is hope. Hope to get back to being. #1. That was such a high and we've proven we are capable. Just gotta work hard to do it right this time.

[dawgday166]

With all that, Ceiling is 11. Basement is 4. Disappointment is below 6. Realistic goal is 8. Anyone operating with higher expectations and being disappointed with a 6 or 7 win season is setting themselves up for failure. Anyone expecting more than 8 is also setting themselves up for failure.

With that being said I'm probably going to pick 10-2 or 11-1 by the time we preseason predictions come around because wool will be thick.

LOL ... you back in your groove now. Surprised it's gonna take you till beginning of season to actually make the 11-1 prediction **

[BeardoMSU]

College football's best commodity is hope. Hope to get back to being. #1. That was such a high and we've proven we are capable. Just gotta work hard to do it right this time.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/a9WYvQYmuQAow/giphy.gif

Btw, I do hope you end up being right. That would be awesome.

[Dawgfan77]

Let?s re visit this after spring game however. We add Castello and out floor is 7 and out ceiling is 9
Some of y?all are under selling the defense and WR.

[Spiderman]

Let?s re visit this after spring game however. We add Castello and out floor is 7 and out ceiling is 9
Some of y?all are under selling the defense and WR.

Don't expect State to look like gangbusters in the spring game if we go good on good.

2 weeks of practice ain't a whole lot.

If we do look good offensively good on good. Then I'll change my satisfaction with 6 wins next year.

[OLJWales]

Don't expect State to look like gangbusters in the spring game if we go good on good.

2 weeks of practice ain't a whole lot.

If we do look good offensively good on good. Then I'll change my satisfaction with 6 wins next year.

Spring is only the beginning. The Fall is when things start shaping out where more questions get answered.

[OLJWales]

http://38.media.tumblr.com/bd522b1c6c030cae46a87c18c154b0ae/tumblr_n6ojtdWZKI1tbh1dho1_400.gif

Love your optimism, though :)

Bump the gif for awesomeness

[SheltonChoked]

7 is our ceiling

We wont be very good on D in 2020.

Leach wins. He consistently has more wins than the he should per talent gap.

WSU 4 year average Recruiting Ranking is 61.

Based on that as a measure of roster talent, WSU should have been 4-8. They were 6-6. Leach was good for +2 wins. Leach with "his QB" is +4 to +6


MSU's 4 year ranking is 21.
MSU, on the same metric, should out talent 6 teams, lose to 4, and 2 are the same "talent" as us (Ole Miss and Arkansas).

Our floor is 7. Ceiling is 10.

Unless you think Leach is 18 years of smoke and mirrors and is not really a good coach....

[Johnson85]

Leach wins. He consistently has more wins than the he should per talent gap.

WSU 4 year average Recruiting Ranking is 61.

Based on that as a measure of roster talent, WSU should have been 4-8. They were 6-6. Leach was good for +2 wins. Leach with "his QB" is +4 to +6


MSU's 4 year ranking is 21.
MSU, on the same metric, should out talent 6 teams, lose to 4, and 2 are the same "talent" as us (Ole Miss and Arkansas).

Our floor is 7. Ceiling is 10.

Unless you think Leach is 18 years of smoke and mirrors and is not really a good coach.... Just not sure Leach is going to make that big of a difference in year one. If he sprinkles his magic fairy dust on a DC, and we find out our WRs were really held back by coaching, we will be really good on offense. I don't know that that's a reasonable expectation. I think Leach performs with mediocre talent in part because he is good at recognizing potential and then helping players realize that potential, not because he can turn any piece of shit into a good QB or WR. I think we will have enough options between players on the roster and potential transfers that he will figure out something at QB. Just not sure that he is going to be able to make the current crop of WRs good. I certainly think he could take players that looked like our WRs in highschool and turn t hem into a solid WR corps, I just don't think he can necessarily do that without picking those WRs

[SheltonChoked]

Just not sure Leach is going to make that big of a difference in year one. If he sprinkles his magic fairy dust on a DC, and we find out our WRs were really held back by coaching, we will be really good on offense. I don't know that that's a reasonable expectation. I think Leach performs with mediocre talent in part because he is good at recognizing potential and then helping players realize that potential, not because he can turn any piece of shit into a good QB or WR. I think we will have enough options between players on the roster and potential transfers that he will figure out something at QB. Just not sure that he is going to be able to make the current crop of WRs good. I certainly think he could take players that looked like our WRs in highschool and turn t hem into a solid WR corps, I just don't think he can necessarily do that without picking those WRs

Yeah too bad Leach never had to transition from a run first team to his air raid ever in his career. He won't have any idea what to do****


To prepare his receivers' ankles and knees for the unusual punishment of his nonstop-running offense, Leach has installed a 40-yard-long sand pit on his practice field; slogging through the sand, he says, strengthens the receivers' joints. And when they finish sprinting, they move to Leach's tennis-ball bazookas. A year of catching tiny fuzzy balls fired at their chests at 60 m.p.h. has turned many young men who got to Texas Tech with hands of stone into glue-fingered receivers.
Or our WR's were having to overthink a complicated system, and get used to playing with 2-3 different QB's, plus split reps in practice with the equally complicated Running game.

Now they they will be catching Tennis balls for practice and getting all of the reps in practice...

Leach didn't pick Couch, or Kingsberry, They all did pretty well in their first year in the system. OU Passed for under 110 yards a game in 1998. Tech threw for less than 175 per game. Kingberry was recruited into a Run first system.


In Leach's first year, his quarterback, Tim Couch, threw for 3,884 yards; the year after that, Couch, who lasted for only a few disappointing years in the N.F.L., threw for 4,275 yards. After Kentucky, Leach moved to Oklahoma for a single season, 1999. That year Oklahoma went from 101st to 8th in the country in offensive scoring. Its quarterback, Josh Heupel, passed for 3,850 yards that season, which was 1,700 more than any quarterback in Oklahoma football history had thrown for in a season.


"There's two ways to make it more complex for the defense," Leach says. "One is to have a whole bunch of different plays, but that's no good because then the offense experiences as much complexity as the defense. Another is a small number of plays and run it out of lots of different formations." Leach prefers new formations. "That way, you don't have to teach a guy a new thing to do," he says. "You just have to teach him new places to stand."

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/04/magazine/coach-leach-goes-deep-very-deep.html

Is it guaranteed his system will work? It has for 18 years, with less talent.