2020 and 2021 may be rough

[Walkerhill]

Leach has gotten almost unbelievable results at both of his stops but he did not elevate the program above average historical results until the 3rd year at TT and 4th at WSU.

One might assume that is due to the learning curve on the offense or need to recruit suitable personnel but it sounds much more like an acculturation period to establish the culture of discipline that he is seeking.

-
Here are comments from the WSU qb on the transition from his perspective:
Halliday: It was definitely a culture change. I really liked playing for Leach. We have a great relationship now and talk quite a bit. I think that first year was just a culture shock for guys. There was more expected from you from the Wulff-to-Leach change and some struggled with that. We obviously weren?t winning much that 2012 year. Things spiraled out of control. I do think Leach could have handled some things differently, especially with the whole Marquess Wilson thing. Other than that, I think he did as good as he could have done. He walked into a tough situation. He was used to a talent and effort level at Texas Tech. We were not a well-oiled machine.

Truthfully, there were just some guys who did not care enough about winning to be able to play under Mike Leach. A lot has been made of that. Leach did everything he could. Again, Marquess could have been handled differently, but Leach came into a tough spot and it?s a football thing all across. They hired a new staff and they wanted guys who aligned with their ideals. I was young at the time and was thrilled he was our coach. I wanted to be a part of what he was doing and loved his outlook for the team. I think we did a lot of positive things together. We were the first team to go to a bowl game in 10 years and we broke basically every record you could. I think we helped springboard the program into what it is now.
-

The change management and expectations management challenges promise to be just as difficult in our locker room if rumors are to be believed.

Buckle up for a bumpy ride but we will come out on the other side a better program. I think for the next 2 years extending the bowl streak is a reasonable goal.

[Walkerhill]

Alternative view, if the team gets on board quickly and/or Leach has learned from the trials of his first 2 stops and can manage the culture change more effectively, then he has proven he can rack up the Ws once the team rallies around his vision.

This team needs player buy-in on leadership standards, work ethic, and discipline stat.

[ShotgunDawg]

I think we could certainly be better in year 3, but I don't see any comparison to what Leach is walking into now vs what he walked into at Wazzou.

- This program has been to 10 straight bowl games.

- MSU has top 25 talent.

What do you mean by rough?

Is 6-8 wins rough?

Context matters here.

[Walkerhill]

I think we could certainly be better in year 3, but I don't see any comparison to what Leach is walking into now vs what he walked into at Wazzou.

- This program has been to 10 straight bowl games.

- MSU has top 25 talent.

What do you mean by rough?

Is 6-8 wins rough?

Context matters here.

Great question - by rough I mean first there may be some turbulence in the locker room, made apparent by player defections and media leaks. Leach was falsely accused of abuse in both places he has worked.

By rough I also mean that we will be reaching for 6 unless we coalesce better than the previous stops.

After Moorhead I think our nominal case is this past year, stretch for 6 with a bowl game loss. We will not surpass that until we get player development back on track and unify In the locker room around a winning culture.

TT won 6-7 the 3 years prior to Leach and then 7 both of his first 2 years. At Wazoo they had won 2 and 4 and then he won 3-6-3 over 3 years. A similar glide path for us looks like 6-7 wins next 2 years and then a jump.

Do not get me wrong. I would love to be pleasantly surprised. I am just saying, Cohen got us exactly what we asked for, a disciplinarian who wins. Give him time to build it back up even if it takes a couple years.

[Coach34]

Rough means this:

We will be rebuilding our D in 2020 after losing alot of good players for the 2nd season in a row. We lose our best pass-rusher and 3/4 of our 2-deep at LB. We lose our entire starting Secondary from Game 1 last season. The Secondary got a little experience in 2019- but by and large is still green. We are depending on jucos for a pass rush because we lost our best DE and our other starting DE had 2 sacks in 2019. To say our D may struggle next year on D is putting it mildly.

Offensively we are about to do a 180 in scheme. We ran the ball 60% of the time in 2019. Those days are gone. That kind of change takes time to adjust to. Plus- we are not even sure who the QB will be and other things that factor in.

Until we see how things shake out- we just dont know. Shrader could get run off in April or suspended, we could have drug tests hamper participation, lots of things yet to be decided. 6 wins for us in 2020 would be a huge win. Less than 6 is 50/50 and could easily happen

[HancockCountyDog]

- MSU has top 25 talent.


I don?t see how you can say we have top 25 talent next year.

I?m not sure who we have on the team that is a top 3 round player in the 2021 draft.

[ShotgunDawg]

I don?t see how you can say we have top 25 talent next year.

I?m not sure who we have on the team that is a top 3 round player in the 2021 draft.

We've signed more 4 stars in the past 3 years than in any 3 year point in our history.

You may be right about the top 3 round thing, but we'll have lots of young, good talent

[Coach34]

I don?t see how you can say we have top 25 talent next year.

I?m not sure who we have on the team that is a top 3 round player in the 2021 draft.

I'm not sure who we have on the team that will be drafted in 2021 period? Hill if he returns? Maybe Thompson? Murphy if he has an awesome year.

[ShotgunDawg]

Rough means this:

We will be rebuilding our D in 2020 after losing alot of good players for the 2nd season in a row. We lose our best pass-rusher and 3/4 of our 2-deep at LB. We lose our entire starting Secondary from Game 1 last season. The Secondary got a little experience in 2019- but by and large is still green. We are depending on jucos for a pass rush because we lost our best DE and our other starting DE had 2 sacks in 2019. To say our D may struggle next year on D is putting it mildly.

Offensively we are about to do a 180 in scheme. We ran the ball 60% of the time in 2019. Those days are gone. That kind of change takes time to adjust to. Plus- we are not even sure who the QB will be and other things that factor in.

Until we see how things shake out- we just dont know. Shrader could get run off in April or suspended, we could have drug tests hamper participation, lots of things yet to be decided. 6 wins for us in 2020 would be a huge win. Less than 6 is 50/50 and could easily happen

You make good points.

It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm not sure who we have on the team that will be drafted in 2021 period? Hill if he returns? Maybe Thompson? Murphy if he has an awesome year.

Wild how we go through these talent cycles. Wish we could somehow stack players

[deadheaddawg]

I think we could certainly be better in year 3, but I don't see any comparison to what Leach is walking into now vs what he walked into at Wazzou.

- This program has been to 10 straight bowl games.

- MSU has top 25 talent.

What do you mean by rough?

Is 6-8 wins rough?

Context matters here.

Context of the league matters too.

There is no comparison between the leagues he walked into at Washington and the SEC

I think leach may end up being amazing for us, I just hope people have rational expectations in the beginning

[Dawgfan77]

We ran because the kids couldn?t pick up the offense

[DLGDawg]

I don?t see how you can say we have top 25 talent next year.

I?m not sure who we have on the team that is a top 3 round player in the 2021 draft.

At 5-7 or 6-6, that's OK. IF we see a change and can see the improvement. Something to hang our hat on. When Dan got here, we won 5 games that first year. BUT you could absolutely tell we were getting better. I think that's what all of us are looking for in the fall of 2020.

[ShotgunDawg]

Context of the league matters too.

There is no comparison between the leagues he walked into at Washington and the SEC

I think leach may end up being amazing for us, I just hope people have rational expectations in the beginning

There is no competition change to get to 8 wins. New Mexico, NC State, Arkansas, Tulane, Mizzou, KY, & Ole Miss are no better or different than the type of teams Leach was facing the Pac 12 & he'll be facing them with more talent than he's ever had.

NOW, the scheme change, culture issues, etc probably won't allow us to win 8 games, but that doesn't change the fact that there are 8 teams on our schedule that are not a competition bump from what Leach is used to seeing.

If he goes above 8 wins, then he would've had to beat A&M or Auburn, which are about as good as Oregon, who Wazzou lost to this season 37-35 with the 70th best roster in the country as ranked by 247.

I don't know if we'll even be any good next year, but to say that 9 games on the schedule are dramatically harder than what he faced in the PAC 12 is incorrect

[ShotgunDawg]

At 5-7 or 6-6, that's OK. IF we see a change and can see the improvement. Something to hang our hat on. When Dan got here, we won 5 games that first year. BUT you could absolutely tell we were getting better. I think that's what all of us are looking for in the fall of 2020.

5-7 would be hideous with our schedule.

[99jc]

There is no competition change to get to 8 wins. New Mexico, NC State, Arkansas, Tulane, Mizzou, KY, & Ole Miss are no better or different than the type of teams Leach was facing the Pac 12 & he'll be facing them with more talent than he's ever had.

NOW, the scheme change, culture issues, etc probably won't allow us to win 8 games, but that doesn't change the fact that there are 8 teams on our schedule that are not a competition bump from what Leach is used to seeing.

If he goes above 8 wins, then he would've had to beat A&M or Auburn, which are about as good as Oregon, who Wazzou lost to this season 37-35 with the 70th best roster in the country as ranked by 247.

I don't know if we'll even be any good next year, but to say that 9 games on the schedule are dramatically harder than what he faced in the PAC 12 is incorrect

This is how I see it also...I was right about Moorhead sucking from the day we hired him I think Leach is that good I expect 8-9 wins withe the bowl game included.

[ShotgunDawg]

This is how I see it also...I was right about Moorhead sucking from the day we hired him I think Leach is that good I expect 8-9 wins withe the bowl game included.

There are going to be hiccups until he gets the right type of players at each position, so I doubt we win 8 next year, even though the schedule says it's possible.

That being said, going 5-7 or even 6-6 with this schedule would be a dis-appointment.

I think we win 7. I'm ok with 6 but 6 better come with some close losses & a show that we're clearly moving in the right direction

[Coach34]

Man you guys are nuts. Thinking we can win 8 or 9 in 2020 is hilarious. We will be closer to 3 than 9. Wow

[ShotgunDawg]

Man you guys are nuts. Thinking we can win 8 or 9 in 2020 is hilarious. We will be closer to 3 than 9. Wow

Look at the schedule.

You're acting like this is a complete rebuild.

We may not have our best roster, but I don't agree at all with that

[Todd4State]

2021 schedule is pretty favorable.

Egg Bowl, Alabama, LSU, and Kentucky in Starkville.

Auburn, Texas A&M who loses a ton after 2020, still rebuilding but probably better Arkansas, and Vanderbilt on the road.

NC State in Starkville. La Tech, at Memphis and a FCS team.

[Coursesuper]

Look at the schedule.

You're acting like this is a complete rebuild.

We may not have our best roster, but I don't agree at all with that

You really don't realize how far the rails this thing is, we are losing a lot, a lot. If they win 6 it will be a great job from this staff.

[msstate7]

2021 schedule is pretty favorable.

Egg Bowl, Alabama, LSU, and Kentucky in Starkville.

Auburn, Texas A&M who loses a ton after 2020, still rebuilding but probably better Arkansas, and Vanderbilt on the road.

NC State in Starkville. La Tech, at Memphis and a FCS team.

Yeah, I'm excited about 2021. Next season's goal should be learn the system and get a bowl

[ShotgunDawg]

You really don't realize how far the rails this thing is, we are losing a lot, a lot. If they win 6 it will be a great job from this staff.

I think you are overrating how far off the rails we are.

We lose a good bit but we've also got some good pieces & parts. Again, 5 wins with this schedule would be hideous

[Coach34]

Look at the schedule.

You're acting like this is a complete rebuild.

We may not have our best roster, but I don't agree at all with that

I have. Our schedule is tough and we are in a pretty strong rebuild. We will be the underdog at least 6 of the 12

[Coach34]

You really don't realize how far the rails this thing is, we are losing a lot, a lot. If they win 6 it will be a great job from this staff.

We've lost alot and will lose more. There will be some attrition.

[ShotgunDawg]

I have. Our schedule is tough and we are in a pretty strong rebuild. We will be the underdog at least 6 of the 12

Bama
LSU
Auburn
A&M
KY
?
Who is the 6th team?

[ShotgunDawg]

In reality, it's just way too early to have this conversation.

We don't know who we'll get as a grad transfer, who the QB will be, if the QB will be any good in this offense, etc.

Just too early.

I know the schedule starts off fairly easy. It'll be important to really improve early in the season

[msstate7]

Bama
LSU
Auburn
A&M
KY
?
Who is the 6th team?

We could be an underdog vs OM

[Coursesuper]

I think you are overrating how far off the rails we are.

We lose a good bit but we've also got some good pieces & parts. Again, 5 wins with this schedule would be hideous

I'm going to enjoy watching this bunch lose their collective shit when the first name player gets shown the door. Like Coach said we don't even know the roster yet and yall are calling 7 or 8 wins. I get you're excited but please slow that roll bro.

[DLGDawg]

5-7 would be hideous with our schedule.

Meh...idk Gun. I hope your right. Lots of stuff we've got to correct. If it was a "guess the record" poll, I would say 6-6.
I really want to see improvement in all areas.

[Ezsoil]

We ran because the kids couldn?t pick up the offense

I'd say that Moorhead had no imagination...there are plenty of things he could have done such as throwing to a running back or a bubble screen ...or how about this a jet sweep that worked so well against Auburn but was never seen again....

[Coursesuper]

We've lost alot and will lose more. There will be some attrition.

You damn right, and I have good idea about one of them, he's a problem.

[dawgday166]

Hill and Shrader are 2 name players I think gonna have to change their ways.

[HailStateSZN19]

We've lost alot and will lose more. There will be some attrition.

Any names you?re willing to share that you think might shock some people that could be shown the door? We?ve got to get our culture cleaned up so I expect it but curious who you think might be included in that.

[HailStateSZN19]

You damn right, and I have good idea about one of them, he's a problem.

Care to share who that is? Or is it the same one that has been mentioned on here the most for being a problem?

[ShotgunDawg]

We could be an underdog vs OM

I doubt it.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm going to enjoy watching this bunch lose their collective shit when the first name player gets shown the door. Like Coach said we don't even know the roster yet and yall are calling 7 or 8 wins. I get you're excited but please slow that roll bro.

But coach doesn't know the roster yet either.

I fully admit it's too early to have this conversation. We may win 4, but there are 8 winnable games on the schedule

[Coursesuper]

Care to share who that is? Or is it the same one that has been mentioned on here the most for being a problem?

If you need it spelled out for you, you haven't been paying attention very well.

[msstate7]

I doubt it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the egg is for win #6 for both teams

[Homedawg]

I think we could certainly be better in year 3, but I don't see any comparison to what Leach is walking into now vs what he walked into at Wazzou.

- This program has been to 10 straight bowl games.

- MSU has top 25 talent.

What do you mean by rough?

Is 6-8 wins rough?

Context matters here.

If we win 8 games he should be coach of the year!! I'll take 6 right now.

[maroonmania]

Do not get me wrong. I would love to be pleasantly surprised. I am just saying, Cohen got us exactly what we asked for, a disciplinarian who wins. Give him time to build it back up even if it takes a couple years.

True, but Leach is also a disciplinarian who wins playing a style that we've never played anything close to in the last 40 years. Not sure what type of offense TT and WSU played before Leach got there but had we gotten a guy that was a disciplinarian that wins that played a style closer to what our roster is built for our transition time might have been shortened a bit. Long term I'm looking forward to what we can be under Leach but fans need to keep expectations in line for the next year or two unless the transfer portal is very kind to us.

[dawgday166]

But coach doesn't know the roster yet either.

I fully admit it's too early to have this conversation. We may win 4, but there are 8 winnable games on the schedule

There are maybe, but everything has to go near perfect for 8 wins. Near perfect ain't gonna happen.

[maroonmania]

I'd say that Moorhead had no imagination...there are plenty of things he could have done such as throwing to a running back or a bubble screen ...or how about this a jet sweep that worked so well against Auburn but was never seen again....

One thing about Moorhead was he very focused on trying to complete passes 30 to 40 yards downfield which takes better QB accuracy, more speed at WR and more time in the pocket for the play to develop. Leach's pass game is primarily all within 25 yards of the LOS.

[ShotgunDawg]

There are maybe, but everything has to go near perfect for 8 wins. Near perfect ain't gonna happen.

I agree. I don't expect 8 wins.

I think we win 7

[HailStateSZN19]

If you need it spelled out for you, you haven't been paying attention very well.

Could I buy a vowel please?*****

[Liverpooldawg]

Rough means this:

We will be rebuilding our D in 2020 after losing alot of good players for the 2nd season in a row. We lose our best pass-rusher and 3/4 of our 2-deep at LB. We lose our entire starting Secondary from Game 1 last season. The Secondary got a little experience in 2019- but by and large is still green. We are depending on jucos for a pass rush because we lost our best DE and our other starting DE had 2 sacks in 2019. To say our D may struggle next year on D is putting it mildly.

Offensively we are about to do a 180 in scheme. We ran the ball 60% of the time in 2019. Those days are gone. That kind of change takes time to adjust to. Plus- we are not even sure who the QB will be and other things that factor in.

Until we see how things shake out- we just dont know. Shrader could get run off in April or suspended, we could have drug tests hamper participation, lots of things yet to be decided. 6 wins for us in 2020 would be a huge win. Less than 6 is 50/50 and could easily happen

Jeez this is spooky. For once you and I are exactly on the same page.

[Liverpooldawg]

Look at the schedule.

You're acting like this is a complete rebuild.

We may not have our best roster, but I don't agree at all with that

Given the huge scheme change, it is a complete rebuild on offense. Defense was already close to it. I'll be VERY impressed with Leach if we get to six wins.

[ShotgunDawg]

Given the huge scheme change, it is a complete rebuild on offense. Defense was already close to it. I'll be VERY impressed with Leach if we get to six wins.

We'll see

[Jarius]

I have. Our schedule is tough and we are in a pretty strong rebuild. We will be the underdog at least 6 of the 12

This will be one of if not the easiest schedules we have had in my lifetime. If we suck it's because of other reasons. Not our schedule. It's hard to believe anyone would complain about playing a terrible Missouri team and Kentucky in the East with 4 awful non conference teams. Next year is set up to pad some wins if Leach has any pulse on offense. The defense will be improved from this year if we make a decent coordinator hire. Basically everyone that consistently played on defense last year outside of Leo, Rivers, and Cole is returning and we are adding some big time juco players. I expect 6-7 wins. 8 is in the picture if Leach can find a quarterback in year one. We are nowhere near a 3 win team talent wise. We have looked like shit because of our head coach, not talent. We have a higher recruiting profile than 8 teams on our schedule next year and we just hired a coach that has done more with less at every single place he's been at.

[ShotgunDawg]

This will be one of if not the easiest schedules we have had in my lifetime. If we suck it's because of other reasons. Not our schedule. It's hard to believe anyone would complain about playing a terrible Missouri team and Kentucky in the East with 4 awful non conference teams. Next year is set up to pad some wins if Leach has anything pulse on offense. The defense will be improved from this year if we make a decent coordinator hire. Basically everyone that consistently played on defense last year outside of 5 is returning and we are adding some big time juco players. I expect 6-7 wins. 8 is in the picture if Leach can find a quarterback in year one. We are nowhere near a 3 win team talent wise. We have looked like shit because of our head coach, not talent.

You echo my thoughts.

I don't think it's worth debating right now though because we have such little info. I can see how both sides feel the way they do.

I'm with you, but I understand coach's point as well

[Jarius]

Given the huge scheme change, it is a complete rebuild on offense. Defense was already close to it. I'll be VERY impressed with Leach if we get to six wins.

We have been recruiting to a pass first offense for 3 years now. Just because Joe ran the ball a lot because his teams couldn't throw does not mean that he was not at least trying to recruit players to that type of scheme.

[Jarius]

You echo my thoughts.

I don't think it's worth debating right now though because we have such little info. I can see how both sides feel the way they do.

I'm with you, but I understand coach's point as well

Leach has went to a bowl game 16 of the past 18 years. The chances of us going 3-9 at any point in his tenure with SEC athletes is basically zero.

[ShotgunDawg]

Regardless of what we lose on offense &, if Kylin comes back, what do we REALLY lose....

Do you really think Mike Leach, MIKE 17ING LEACH, is going to put an offense on the field next year that's as big of a cluster 17 as Joe's?

Do you really think our offense will regress from what we had this year?

Personally, I don't believe Mike Leach would be caught dead with an offense as bad as Joe's. I mean, this is Mike 17ing Leach guys

[dawgday166]

Regardless of what we lose on offense &, if Kylin comes back, what do we REALLY lose....

Do you really think Mike Leach, MIKE 17ING LEACH, is going to put an offense on the field next year that's as big of a cluster 17 as Joe's?

Do you really think our offense will regress from what we had this year?

Personally, I don't believe Mike Leach would be caught dead with an offense as bad as Joe's. I mean, this is Mike 17ing Leach guys

I think there'll be some growing pains. And Hill has a lot of changing to do to play for Leach. Leach don't cater to primadonnas who live on Twitter and won't block.

[ShotgunDawg]

I think there'll be some growing pains. And Hill has a lot of changing to do to play for Leach. Leach don't cater to primadonnas who live on Twitter and won't block.

No doubt there will be growing pains, but that wasn't the question: do you really think Mike Leach will put an offense on the field that is equal or worse than they dysfunctional mess Joe consistently put out there?

[Santiago]

At least Leach offense , with the short quick passes, will move the chains and less 3 and outs. By that alone it will help take pressure off our D.....and against weaker teams where we might or will score 50-70 points a game our D is going to get lots of reps. Moorhead has so many 3 and outs it doesn?t matter that we ran 60% last year.

[dawgday166]

No doubt there will be growing pains, but that wasn't the question: do you really think Mike Leach will put an offense on the field that is equal or worse than they dysfunctional mess Joe consistently put out there?

Naw ... We'll at least look like we've been on a football field before. But executing at a high enough level to score 30+ against about 5 teams on our schedule may be a challenge. And then there's the young defense too.

[Quaoarsking]

Games 2 and 3 are huge, @NC State and Arkansas. Both were awful last year, and we've got to win both if we want to reach a bowl. Do it and we will just have to win 1 out of Mizzou, Kentucky, and Ole Miss to get one.

[99jc]

Man you guys are nuts. Thinking we can win 8 or 9 in 2020 is hilarious. We will be closer to 3 than 9. Wow

I think your wrong here you know a lot about football but I'm pretty damn smart on the subject myself. If your that sure about us sucking put some big money on it when vegas puts out over and unders on wins.

[tireddawg]

You echo my thoughts.

I don't think it's worth debating right now though because we have such little info. I can see how both sides feel the way they do.

I'm with you, but I understand coach's point as well

Why are you debating it?

[Quaoarsking]

If we're closer to 3 than 9, that means you're calling a 5-7 record, which means we only win 2 out of Arkansas, @NC State, Missouri, @Kentucky, and Ole Miss, which would be a disaster.

[ShotgunDawg]

Why are you debating it?

I'm discussing it.

To believe we are going to win less than 6, you have to believe that Mike Leach will put an offense on the field that will be worse than Joe's

[99jc]

I'm discussing it.

To believe we are going to win less than 6, you have to believe that Mike Leach will put an offense on the field that will be worse than Joe's

Hell most of these 17ers probably wanted to keep sloppy joe. I'm going to believe in Leach until proven otherwise.

[dawgday166]

I'm discussing it.

To believe we are going to win less than 6, you have to believe that Mike Leach will put an offense on the field that will be worse than Joe's

For the record I say 6 or 7. I also believe there may be a WTF loss .. or maybe 2. This ain't the 2018 team Leach is inheriting.

[Liverpooldawg]

Hell most of these 17ers probably wanted to keep sloppy joe. I'm going to believe in Leach until proven otherwise.

Good lord you think COACH 34 wanted to keep Joe? You never saw me defend him this year either.

[Jarius]

For the record I say 6 or 7. I also believe there may be a WTF loss .. or maybe 2. This ain't the 2018 team Leach is inheriting.

It's hard to know what exactly he is inheriting because they have been so poorly coached. Recruiting rankings wise he is inheriting the most talented roster MSU has ever fielded. It's hard to quantify that into actual talent when the guys have been coached by Moorhead for the past 2 years. Hopefully a culture shift and a much better coach will show immediate results.

[Liverpooldawg]

If we're closer to 3 than 9, that means you're calling a 5-7 record, which means we only win 2 out of Arkansas, @NC State, Missouri, @Kentucky, and Ole Miss, which would be a disaster.

The only gimme there is the Swine, at least it should be.

[dawgday166]

Hell most of these 17ers probably wanted to keep sloppy joe. I'm going to believe in Leach until proven otherwise.

Easy to tell someone to bet in Vegas or say you won big when there is no way for anyone to verify that. Betting each other is the way to go.

[99jc]

Good lord you think COACH 34 wanted to keep Joe? You never saw me defend him this year either.

I never said you or him wanted to keep Him.

[Quaoarsking]

For the record I say 6 or 7. I also believe there may be a WTF loss .. or maybe 2. This ain't the 2018 team Leach is inheriting.

The only games that would qualify as a WTF loss are New Mexico (won 8 games in 3 years, so not happening), Alabama A&M (SWAC), Arkansas (1 SEC win over the last 3 years, new coach, and in Starkville), and Tulane (most plausible on the list, but still very unlikely they come into Starkville and beat us)

It's very unlikely we have a WTF loss. If we miss a bowl, it's because we did poorly in the tossup/semi-tossups like Kentucky, Mizzou, Ole Miss, NC State.

[Quaoarsking]

The only gimme there is the Swine, at least it should be.

Yeah, but it would be a big disappointment to go 1-3 or worse against the other 4. None of those teams are going to be very good next year.

Like, could Missouri come into Starkville and beat us? Sure, they've got a lot better chance than Tulane or Arkansas. But they probably won't. They are mediocre and have a lot less proven of a head coach than we do.

Could we lose to NC State? Sure, it's on the road and will be only our 2nd game against Leach. But nobody is going to pick a 4-8 ACC team to turn around and beat a 6-6 team the next year. It's not like they had a bunch of close unlucky losses - they were repeatedly blown out throughout 2019.

[dawgday166]

It's hard to know what exactly he is inheriting because they have been so poorly coached. Recruiting rankings wise he is inheriting the most talented roster MSU has ever fielded. It's hard to quantify that into actual talent when the guys have been coached by Moorhead for the past 2 years. Hopefully a culture shift and a much better coach will show immediate results.

Maybe so from recruiting rankings but they ain't all very experienced Jrs and Srs with a Sr QB coming back. And they weren't developed by Mullen either.

[ShotgunDawg]

It's hard to know what exactly he is inheriting because they have been so poorly coached. Recruiting rankings wise he is inheriting the most talented roster MSU has ever fielded. It's hard to quantify that into actual talent when the guys have been coached by Moorhead for the past 2 years. Hopefully a culture shift and a much better coach will show immediate results.

This

[dawgday166]

The only games that would qualify as a WTF loss are New Mexico (won 8 games in 3 years, so not happening), Alabama A&M (SWAC), Arkansas (1 SEC win over the last 3 years, new coach, and in Starkville), and Tulane (most plausible on the list, but still very unlikely they come into Starkville and beat us)

It's very unlikely we have a WTF loss. If we miss a bowl, it's because we did poorly in the tossup/semi-tossups like Kentucky, Mizzou, Ole Miss, NC State.

I agree with this but I was calling WTF loss as one of your (and mine too) tossups. Most everyone calling 8 or 9 wins think those tossups are sure wins.

[Coach34]

This will be one of if not the easiest schedules we have had in my lifetime. If we suck it's because of other reasons. Not our schedule. It's hard to believe anyone would complain about playing a terrible Missouri team and Kentucky in the East with 4 awful non conference teams. Next year is set up to pad some wins if Leach has any pulse on offense. The defense will be improved from this year if we make a decent coordinator hire. Basically everyone that consistently played on defense last year outside of Leo, Rivers, and Cole is returning and we are adding some big time juco players. I expect 6-7 wins. 8 is in the picture if Leach can find a quarterback in year one. We are nowhere near a 3 win team talent wise. We have looked like shit because of our head coach, not talent. We have a higher recruiting profile than 8 teams on our schedule next year and we just hired a coach that has done more with less at every single place he's been at.

Mizzou returns 19 starters
Kentucky returns 17 starters and we play at their place.
NC State returns 19 starters and we play at their place
A&M returns 17 starters

Those games are toss-ups at best. We likely lose 3 of 4 if not all 4

[tireddawg]

I'm discussing it.

To believe we are going to win less than 6, you have to believe that Mike Leach will put an offense on the field that will be worse than Joe's

It's not the O that I'm concerned about.

[ShotgunDawg]

Mizzou returns 19 starters
Kentucky returns 17 starters and we play at their place.
NC State returns 19 starters and we play at their place
A&M returns 17 starters

Those games are toss-ups at best. We likely lose 3 of 4 if not all 4

I doubt it unless everything falls apart.

Looks like you're thinking the program implodes

[Coach34]

If we're closer to 3 than 9, that means you're calling a 5-7 record, which means we only win 2 out of Arkansas, @NC State, Missouri, @Kentucky, and Ole Miss, which would be a disaster.

We will be underdogs 3 out of those 5....We could easily lose NC State, Mizzou, and Kentucky

[ShotgunDawg]

It's not the O that I'm concerned about.

So it's not about growing pains then?

The DL will be better, the LBs will look like they did without Willie Gay, & the secondary will be young, but Dantzler pretty much decided to sit this season out anyway. Having Murphy for every game will help

[dawgday166]

Mizzou returns 19 starters
Kentucky returns 17 starters and we play at their place.
NC State returns 19 starters and we play at their place
A&M returns 17 starters

Those games are toss-ups at best. We likely lose 3 of 4 if not all 4

I'm counting TAM as a sure loss.

Regardless of what people think now ... Ky is a tossup every year at this point in our program until Leach rights the ship. Stoops has established a good culture and program there. I'm counting Ky as a loss cause it at their place.

[ShotgunDawg]

We will be underdogs 3 out of those 5....We could easily lose NC State, Mizzou, and Kentucky

But SHOULD win 2 of the 3.

I mean we could play the COULD game all day

[Liverpooldawg]

Yeah, but it would be a big disappointment to go 1-3 or worse against the other 4. None of those teams are going to be very good next year.

Like, could Missouri come into Starkville and beat us? Sure, they've got a lot better chance than Tulane or Arkansas. But they probably won't. They are mediocre and have a lot less proven of a head coach than we do.

Could we lose to NC State? Sure, it's on the road and will be only our 2nd game against Leach. But nobody is going to pick a 4-8 ACC team to turn around and beat a 6-6 team the next year. It's not like they had a bunch of close unlucky losses - they were repeatedly blown out throughout 2019.

NC State will probabaly be pretty good. They were supposed to be good, were in nearly every game, and have almost everybody back. It's up there. Ole Miss gave us all we want ed in Vegas and it's up there. Kentucky is up there and they are going to be good again. Missouri will be at least decent. We are going to be going into the year running a different system that offensively at least, we aren't very well suited to as it looks right now. If Leach gets to six wins, he will have done one heck of a job.

[Jarius]

[QUOTE=Coach34;1221210]Mizzou returns 19 starters
Kentucky returns 17 starters and we play at their place.
NC State returns 19 starters and we play at their place
A&M returns 17 starters

Joe Moorhead beat Kentucky this year. We beat them damn near every year. NC State was one of the worst teams in the country this year. Missouri has a new coach and play us in Starkville. They were also really bad last year. We will be favored against NC State and Missouri and will be around a pick Em against Kentucky. We will have a head coaching advantage against all 3 of those teams. A&M is not a tossup. They recruit top ten athletes.

[dawgday166]

But SHOULD win 2 of the 3.

I mean we could play the COULD game all day

Why "should" we win these? All bring back way more experience than we do. I've got Ky as a loss. Ky is always a tossup now under Stoops and where we are now as a program. It's at Lexington ... Advantage Ky.

There are years we should absolutely beat TAM (not next year). But going by recruiting rankings that is never the case. You can't go by recruiting rankings when you want to then not use when you don't want to. It don't work that way.

[Jarius]

NC State will probabaly be pretty good. They were supposed to be good, were in nearly every game, and have almost everybody back. It's up there. Ole Miss gave us all we want ed in Vegas and it's up there. Kentucky is up there and they are going to be good again. Missouri will be at least decent. We are going to be going into the year running a different system that offensively at least, we aren't very well suited to as it looks right now. If Leach gets to six wins, he will have done one heck of a job.

NC State lost to Georgia Tech this year and went 4-8.

[Coach34]

I'm counting TAM as a sure loss.

Ky is a tossup every year at this point in our program until Leach rights the ship. Stoops has established a good culture and program there. I'm counting Ky as a loss cause it at their place.

We have lost 2 straight at Kentucky and they return a better football team in 2020

[Coach34]

NC State lost to Georgia Tech this year and went 4-8.

NC State started alot of freshmen in 2019 including their QB. They will be vastly improved in 2020

[Jarius]

Why "should" we win these? All bring back way more experience than we do. I've got Ky as a loss. Ky is always a tossup now under Stoops and where we are now as a program. It's at Lexington ... Advantage Ky.

There are years we should absolutely beat TAM (not next year). But going by recruiting rankings that is never the case. You can't go by recruiting rankings when you want to then not use when you don't want to. It don't work that way.

Why should we beat Kentucky and Missouri? Is that a serious question? We have better players and a better head coach than both. That's why.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm done discussing this till we have more information

[Jarius]

NC State started alot of freshmen in 2019 including their QB. They will be vastly improved in 2020

Our defense started a ton of freshman last year and you don't expect us to be vastly improved. We also started a freshman quarterback.

[Coach34]

Our defense started a ton of freshman last year and you don't expect us to be vastly improved. We also started a freshman quarterback.

because our freshmen were back-ups that got pressed into action. The guys in front of them were far superior.

[dawgday166]

Why should we beat Kentucky and Missouri? Is that a serious question? We have better players and a better head coach than both. That's why.

Not yet with KY. They have way more experience coming back and continuity in coaching and are well coached.

[dawgday166]

I'm done discussing this till we have more information

Lol ... I believe you started it dude.

[Coach34]

Why should we beat Kentucky and Missouri? Is that a serious question? We have better players and a better head coach than both. That's why.

What? Kentucky and Mizzou both has won more games than we have the last 4 seasons. Both teams returns the bulk of their starters in 2020 and will be favored over us. If we win either game its a big upset for us

[ShotgunDawg]

What? Kentucky and Mizzou both has won more games than we have the last 4 seasons. Both teams returns the bulk of their starters in 2020 and will be favored over us. I we win either game its a big upset for us

Beating Mizzou at home is a big upset for us?

You're expecting this thing to his rock bottom then. I disagree

[Jarius]

What? Kentucky and Mizzou both has won more games than we have the last 4 seasons. Both teams returns the bulk of their starters in 2020 and will be favored over us. I we win either game its a big upset for us

Kentucky and Missouri both play in the East. Kentucky would not go to a bowl game and would have a new coach if they had to play in the West. Missouri has another coach and they don't even play in the West. That's a ridiculously flawed way to make any reasonable argument. Beating Missouri or Kentucky will not be a huge upset next year and it doesn't matter if we play them on Mars.

[Quaoarsking]

NC State will probabaly be pretty good. They were supposed to be good, were in nearly every game, and have almost everybody back. It's up there. Ole Miss gave us all we want ed in Vegas and it's up there. Kentucky is up there and they are going to be good again. Missouri will be at least decent. We are going to be going into the year running a different system that offensively at least, we aren't very well suited to as it looks right now. If Leach gets to six wins, he will have done one heck of a job.

No they weren't, they had 7 losses by 14 or more points.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_NC_State_Wolfpack_football_team#Schedule

[Coach34]

Beating Mizzou at home is a big upset for us?

You're expecting this thing to his rock bottom then. I disagree

Mizzou returns 19 starters- 10 on defense. We have huge holes on D and are changing offenses. Yeah- we are the underdog in this match-up in 2020. I'm not betting on Gus Walley, Austin Williams, and Osirius Mitchell in 2020

[Quaoarsking]

What? Kentucky and Mizzou both has won more games than we have the last 4 seasons. Both teams returns the bulk of their starters in 2020 and will be favored over us. If we win either game its a big upset for us

Missouri is 25-25 and 13-19 over the last 4 years, so no.

[Jarius]

because our freshmen were back-ups that got pressed into action. The guys in front of them were far superior.

And our backups were also a shit ton more highly recruited than anyone on NC State's roster. Playing time helps ours as much as it helped theirs no matter the reason for being pressed into action.

[Jarius]

Missouri is 25-25 and 13-19 over the last 4 years, so no.

Yea but still.

[BeardoMSU]

What? Kentucky and Mizzou both has won more games than we have the last 4 seasons. Both teams returns the bulk of their starters in 2020 and will be favored over us. If we win either game its a big upset for us

I think its safe to say you're more than dubious at the prospects of this HC hire working out. We get it.

[ShotgunDawg]

Mizzou returns 19 starters- 10 on defense. We have huge holes on D and are changing offenses. Yeah- we are the underdog in this match-up in 2020. I'm not betting on Gus Walley, Austin Williams, and Osirius Mitchell in 2020

But Mizzou is changing schemes as well. Do they get knocked for that?

The Mizzou game is later in the schedule, so hopefully we have gotten better by then

[Jarius]

Mizzou returns 19 starters- 10 on defense. We have huge holes on D and are changing offenses. Yeah- we are the underdog in this match-up in 2020. I'm not betting on Gus Walley, Austin Williams, and Osirius Mitchell in 2020

But you are betting on the random 3 stars with no offers that play for Missouri and went 6-6 last year and have to play on the road without Kelly Bryant and with a new coach who has not proven that he can hold Leach's jock strap.

[Liverpooldawg]

NC State started alot of freshmen in 2019 including their QB. They will be vastly improved in 2020

Yep, they are going to be good.

[Quaoarsking]

Yep, they are going to be good.

Usually ACC teams that go 4-8 and get blown out in almost all of those losses don't suddenly become "good," at least by SEC standards, in 1 year.

[ShotgunDawg]

Wins

NM
TUL
Ark
Alabama A&M

Toss ups
KY
MZ
OM
NC State

Losses
A&M
Bama
Auburn
LSU

So, this team could get somewhere between 4 & 8 wins. If we split the tossups, then we get 6.

That's about all I think we can say right now.

[dawgday166]

But Mizzou is changing schemes as well. Do they get knocked for that?

The Mizzou game is later in the schedule, so hopefully we have gotten better by then

I'm counting that as a W. It's OM that I think may be an L in Oxford. Combine that with KY loss and I have 6-6. There could truly be a WTF loss next year tho ... But there could also be a corresponding WTF win too.

[ShotgunDawg]

Usually ACC teams that go 4-8 and get blown out in almost all of those losses don't suddenly become "good," at least by SEC standards, in 1 year.

This, They will be improved, but they won't be good. Saying a 4-8 ACC team with a 36 talent ranking is going to be good is dumb. Lacks thought process

[Coach34]

But you are betting on the random 3 stars with no offers that play for Missouri and went 6-6 last year and have to play on the road without Kelly Bryant and with a new coach who has not proven that he can hold Leach's jock strap.

Their new HC has been successful and they have as much talent as we do with alot more experience returning. It's a toss-up at best

[Coach34]

This, They will be improved, but they won't be good. Saying a 4-8 ACC team with a 36 talent ranking is going to be good is dumb. Lacks thought process

Looking at recruiting ranking is ****ing stupid. Experience factor far outweighs that

[ShotgunDawg]

Their new HC has been successful and they have as much talent as we do with alot more experience returning. It's a toss-up at best

Mizzou has a talent ranking of 40 & we're 23

[Jarius]

Their new HC has been successful and they have as much talent as we do with alot more experience returning. It's a toss-up at best

Their new head coach has 1 year experience at head coach at a g5 school with a roster that was built by someone else. Our head coach is much better than their head coach until proven otherwise. They do not have as much talent as we do. They went 6-6 in the sec east with a full roster and a quarterback that's going to make an NFL roster. They recruit worse than us every single year.

[dawgday166]

According to WSU fan over on SPS it takes little time to install offense but about 2 years to perfect it. And in Leach's 1st year he was hampered by his inherited QB and a diva WR that ended up kicked off of team.

We'll probably go through some of that.

[Jarius]

[QUOTE=Coach34;1221302]Looking at recruiting ranking is ****ing stupid. Experience factor far outweighs that[/

Sometimes. Depends on if the players are worth a shit.

[Quaoarsking]

Their new HC has been successful and they have as much talent as we do with alot more experience returning. It's a toss-up at best

So Eli Drinkwitz gets credit for "has been successful" for his 1 year as a head coach, going 12-1 in a G5 conference taking over for a team that had won 41 games over the previous 4 years, but Leach doesn't get credit for 18 years of success in P5 conferences when he inherited awful teams and had to improve them himself? Ok....

[dawgday166]

Replied to wrong quote

[ShotgunDawg]

I'll say this.

I get Coach's point. I really do.

I think as MSU we are gong to struggle mightily with the win/loss guess this year because we simply have no idea whatsoever what an air raid MSU looks like, we have no idea if we have a QB that can run it, we have no idea what the roster will look like, & MOST of all we have no idea how poorly this team was coached under Joe.

All this said, the guesses are going to be extreme this year in both directions. I'm leaning on the fact that this coach has made a bowl game 16 of 18 years as head coach & that means something to me. It means that he knows what he is doing. It means he knows how to implement his system, & he knows how to run the entire program.

Leach is not taking over a dumpster fire. He's taking over a talented team that lost it's way. At least that's the way I see it.

[Coach34]

And here we go again. I was the jackass because I kept saying our coach was JoVester in 2019. Boys- you bout to be disappointed in 2020. We are going to work hard for 6 wins. Will be happy if we get it.

[dawgday166]

I'll say this.

I get Coach's point. I really do.

I think as MSU we are gong to struggle mightily with the win/loss guess this year because we simply have no idea whatsoever what an air raid MSU looks like, we have no idea if we have a QB that can run it, we have no idea what the roster will look like, & MOST of all we have no idea how poorly this team was coached under Joe.

All this said, the guesses are going to be extreme this year in both directions. I'm leaning on the fact that this coach has made a bowl game 16 of 18 years as head coach & that means something to me. It means that he knows what he is doing. It means he knows how to implement his system, & he knows how to run the entire program.

Leach is not taking over a dumpster fire. He's taking over a talented team that lost it's way. At least that's the way I see it.

Honestly ... I'm making some guesses but really have no clue on next year. Kinda trying to not get too wooly and setting myself up for major disappointment.

[Jarius]

And here we go again. I was the jackass because I kept saying our coach was JoVester in 2019. Boys- you bout to be disappointed in 2020. We are going to work hard for 6 wins. Will be happy if we get it.

You also told everyone we were going to win 10 games in 2018. You don't know any more than anyone else whether or not Leach will come in and beat the teams that he has more talent than (Like Kentucky, Missouri, and NC State).

[Coach34]

You also told everyone we were going to win 10 games in 2018. You don't know any more than anyone else whether or not Leach will come in and beat the teams that he has more talent than (Like Kentucky, Missouri, and NC State).

A good coach would have won 10 in 2018. So basically- if Leach struggles- we wont win more than 6 and could easily win less.

[ShotgunDawg]

A good coach would have won 10 in 2018. So basically- if Leach struggles- we wont win more than 6 and could easily win less.

What if Leach does well?

[dawgday166]

What if Leach does well?

Great ... Fantastic. I just don't want all y'all to be screaming we hired an idiot if we stumble the 1st 5 games or so.

And I guarantee you will.

[Quaoarsking]

Great ... Fantastic. I just don't want all y'all to be screaming we hired an idiot if we stumble the 1st 5 games or so.

And I guarantee you will.

Wrong, I have loved Mike Leach for over 15 years and will be proud to go down with the ship with him if that's what it comes to. There is no plausible scenario in which I would ever call him an idiot. Implausible scenarios, maybe, but still probably not.

[dawgday166]

Wrong, I have loved Mike Leach for over 15 years and will be proud to go down with the ship with him if that's what it comes to. There is no plausible scenario in which I would ever call him an idiot. Implausible scenarios, maybe, but still probably not.

Lol ... I meant that more for Gun.

[coachkmb14]

Great question - by rough I mean first there may be some turbulence in the locker room, made apparent by player defections and media leaks. Leach was falsely accused of abuse in both places he has worked.

By rough I also mean that we will be reaching for 6 unless we coalesce better than the previous stops.

After Moorhead I think our nominal case is this past year, stretch for 6 with a bowl game loss. We will not surpass that until we get player development back on track and unify In the locker room around a winning culture.

TT won 6-7 the 3 years prior to Leach and then 7 both of his first 2 years. At Wazoo they had won 2 and 4 and then he won 3-6-3 over 3 years. A similar glide path for us looks like 6-7 wins next 2 years and then a jump.

Do not get me wrong. I would love to be pleasantly surprised. I am just saying, Cohen got us exactly what we asked for, a disciplinarian who wins. Give him time to build it back up even if it takes a couple years.


Maybe I am a little over confident, but I see us winning all four OCC games, beating Kentucky, Missouri and Arkansas...Ole Miss is going to be a battle but winnable....So 6-8 wins should be expected. Honestly, I am still not sold on A&M or Auburn and they both come to Starkville.

[dantheman4248]

Our schedule is cake. We have 8 games that are very winnable period. The SEC ain't what it once was. 2021 is definitely the year to strike but this year will be very instrumental in building confidence.

As for relying on jucos at DE. When was the last time we didn't do that? Sweat wasn't fully homegrown. Relying on jucos is a just still a reality of MSU.

I think the culture cleansing is being vastly overrated. Most of the "leaders" of the team are leaving for the draft. They'll learn to swim or sink real fast. It's not like Leach is stepping into a place where bad apples will rule the roost. Sad to say Willie Gay and Kylin Hill may end up being addition by subtraction. Easier for everyone to buy in when there is no star player pushing back. Shrader is the only one I've heard overtly be a bad apple that could be in a leadership role left. I have a feeling that can be handled. It's a lot different than having to clean up a bunch of lazy senior dictating the team. There's a very clean slate here and tons of potential on the roster. I'm excited and there's plenty of reason for optimism.

3 wins is a joke of a prediction. If we had the 2013 schedule that would make more sense. We have cupcake city outside the month of October.

[TUSK]

you kids kill me.

[Jarius]

A good coach would have won 10 in 2018. So basically- if Leach struggles- we wont win more than 6 and could easily win less.

Well Leach being a good coach is not debatable. He is an outstanding coach.

[timotheus]

Willie signed with an agent but Kylin is staying put for another year isn't he?

[dawgday166]

Our schedule is cake. We have 8 games that are very winnable period. The SEC ain't what it once was. 2021 is definitely the year to strike but this year will be very instrumental in building confidence.

As for relying on jucos at DE. When was the last time we didn't do that? Sweat wasn't fully homegrown. Relying on jucos is a just still a reality of MSU.

I think the culture cleansing is being vastly overrated. Most of the "leaders" of the team are leaving for the draft. They'll learn to swim or sink real fast. It's not like Leach is stepping into a place where bad apples will rule the roost. Sad to say Willie Gay and Kylin Hill may end up being addition by subtraction. Easier for everyone to buy in when there is no star player pushing back. Shrader is the only one I've heard overtly be a bad apple that could be in a leadership role left. I have a feeling that can be handled. It's a lot different than having to clean up a bunch of lazy senior dictating the team. There's a very clean slate here and tons of potential on the roster. I'm excited and there's plenty of reason for optimism.

3 wins is a joke of a prediction. If we had the 2013 schedule that would make more sense. We have cupcake city outside the month of October.

You still predicting 11-1 for last year? Tommy still better than Dak? Just giving you a hard time LOL.

You performed a P&S analysis on next season yet? If so, what are your ground rules and assumptions for that analysis going into next year?

[dawgday166]

Well Leach being a good coach is not debatable. He is an outstanding coach.

With Leach going into 2018 10 would've been a given IMO.

[Quaoarsking]

With Leach going into 2018 10 would've been a given IMO.

Fitz and Leach may or may not have been an especially bad fit, but if Leach had gotten Minshew and coached us in 2018, we are minimum NY6 and probably CFP.

[dawgday166]

Fitz and Leach may or may not have been an especially bad fit, but if Leach had gotten Minshew and coached us in 2018, we are minimum NY6 and probably CFP.

Unlike some ... I think Leach would've made Fitz much better. Hell, just having Aeris blocking for him in 2018 would've made him better. And Aeris would've been under Leach.

I rewatched the FL game 3 times and that game wasn't on Fitz. I did that cause I wanted to be sure how bad did Fitz really play. Rewound it in slow mo many times to see what happened on plays. Ky wasn't on Fitz either. But his confidence took a huge hit when fanbase got so down on him I think. Then the AU (passing), LSU, and Bama games were very subpar, especially LSU. I was pissed at Fitz after that game.

[FISHDAWG]

Leach doesn't inherit what SloMo inherited .... big difference here and I think some folks here are going to be a little disappointed

[ShotgunDawg]

Leach doesn't inherit what SloMo inherited .... big difference here and I think some folks here are going to be a little disappointed

On the defensive side yes, on the offensive side, I'm not sure there is any difference. WRs may be better actually

[dawgday166]

On the defensive side yes, on the offensive side, I'm not sure there is any difference. WRs may be better actually

Huge difference on offensive side. Very experienced and much better offensive line in 18. Fifth-year senior quarterback. 1100 yard rusher that would also block. A team that had gone 9 - 4 the previous year with the same players. A team that had gone into hostile environments against outstanding teams such as AU and Georgia in 17. Just a huge difference in offenses between next year and that year.

[ShotgunDawg]

Huge difference on offensive side. Very experienced and much better offensive line in 18. Fifth-year senior quarterback. 1100 yard rusher that would also block. A team that had gone 9 - 4 the previous year with the same players. A team that had gone into hostile environments against outstanding teams such as AU and Georgia in 17. Just a huge difference in offenses between next year and that year.

Not sure there is any difference at QB than what we have now. We're actually better throwing now.

Kylin started in 2018, so you can't say that is different & he's better now than he was then

Osiris was the best WR in 2018 & he's back & older

I'll give you the OL, but Leach isn't going to be asking them to impose their will

I don't honestly see any meaningful difference in the offensive personnel although I'm sure you can throw out a bunch of stats as to how I'm wrong.

[PMDawg]

Put me down for 5-7 or 6-6. We will have to win some shootouts next year, considering the state of our defense. I hope the skills guys on the offense can figure this out quickly. We need an accurate QB for this to work, and I'm not sure we have one yet.

[dawgday166]

Not sure there is any difference at QB than what we have now. We're actually better throwing now.

Kylin started in 2018, so you can't say that is different & he's better now than he was then

Osiris was the best WR in 2018 & he's back & older

I'll give you the OL, but Leach isn't going to be asking them to impose their will

I don't honestly see any meaningful difference in the offensive personnel although I'm sure you can throw out a bunch of stats as to how I'm wrong.

Fitz is as good as anyone we got right at this moment to me until proven otherwise.

I was talking about Aeris as 1100 back that would block ... which affected Fitz significantly BTW that he didn't start.

Also ... 2017 team had smoked LSU & went to mat with Bama. That was a confident team coming back. This team ain't that way. Just the most minor adversity and they fold like an accordion. It's night/day between those 2 sets of offenses.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Fitz is as good as anyone we got right at this moment to me until proven otherwise.

I was talking about Aeris as 1100 back that would block ... which affected Fitz significantly BTW that he didn't start.

Also ... 2017 team had smoked LSU & went to mat with Bama. That was a confident team coming back. This team ain't that way. Just the most minor adversity and they fold like an accordion. It's night/day between those 2 sets of offenses.

I actually think the "confidence" is a negative, not a positive. I think it made us not work as hard and not be mentally prepared for failure.

Maybe now the players will be humble enough to listen to coaching

[sandwolf]

NC State will probabaly be pretty good. They were supposed to be good, were in nearly every game, and have almost everybody back.

What do you mean they were in nearly every game? They lost by 17, 18, 21, 34, 45, 14, 2, and 31. They were absolutely awful.

[dawgday166]

I actually think the "confidence" is a negative, not a positive. I think it made us not work as hard and not be mentally prepared for failure.

Maybe now the players will be humble enough to listen to coaching

Could be ... not sure tho. I don't believe Leach would've allowed that to happen. What I mean by confidence tho is they had been thru some fires in 2017 and 2016 also. This team coming back this year with all the new starters and young QB ... haven't really been thru those fires yet to the same extent.

[dantheman4248]

You still predicting 11-1 for last year? Tommy still better than Dak? Just giving you a hard time LOL.

You performed a P&S analysis on next season yet? If so, what are your ground rules and assumptions for that analysis going into next year?

I have a 93% chance we end between 5-9 wins next year. I'll know more once rosters and position battles shake out but the SEC is once again weak.

I'll probably predict 10 wins with losses to A&M and LSU because that's once again a better value than the 8-4 that I see us having. (I had us at favored in 8 last year shoutout Tennessee and Kansas State, but again took 11 because it was different enough to be unique and a lot more fun and hopeful than being the person who predicted 6-6 right. Even though they were about the same value.)

[Lord McBuckethead]

Rough means this:

We will be rebuilding our D in 2020 after losing alot of good players for the 2nd season in a row. We lose our best pass-rusher and 3/4 of our 2-deep at LB. We lose our entire starting Secondary from Game 1 last season. The Secondary got a little experience in 2019- but by and large is still green. We are depending on jucos for a pass rush because we lost our best DE and our other starting DE had 2 sacks in 2019. To say our D may struggle next year on D is putting it mildly.

Offensively we are about to do a 180 in scheme. We ran the ball 60% of the time in 2019. Those days are gone. That kind of change takes time to adjust to. Plus- we are not even sure who the QB will be and other things that factor in.

Until we see how things shake out- we just dont know. Shrader could get run off in April or suspended, we could have drug tests hamper participation, lots of things yet to be decided. 6 wins for us in 2020 would be a huge win. Less than 6 is 50/50 and could easily happen

Our defense could be terrible next year. Hell, we were terrible this year and we lose a ton yet again. We are in a full rebuild. I agree, I am hoping for 6 wins with being competitive in the other games. This first year is going to be rough because we just do not have all the horses we need on defense and we could be missing a few on the offensive side of the ball depending on Hill and our WRs emerging.

QB - We have talent here. Who's to know if we can take a large enough step forward. Moving from Moorhead's PHD level system that required 3-4 reads pre snap, checks, and additional reads by WRs and the Qb during the play. I do subscribe to the practice a small group of plays 1000 times mentality versus the 50 plays 20 times. If we simplify our schemes and get some players to stop thinking and just playing, we will see improvement.

[BB30]

Shotgun's melt is going to be epic if we lose to NC State.

Shotgun, I love your passion and positive outlook right now. But 5-6 wins will be a success this year even with the schedule. You can't change a culture in one off season. We still have a bunch of soft guys on that roster.

I do agree with the sentiment that we will see improvement throughout the season and this years 5-7 or 6-6 will be much better than this past years.

If all he fixes is the boneheaded pre-snap penalties this year it will be a more enjoyable team to watch. I still don't understand how you manage to start not one but several games with a pre snap delay of game in the first series of plays.

[ShotgunDawg]

Shotgun's melt is going to be epic if we lose to NC State.

Shotgun, I love your passion and positive outlook right now. But 5-6 wins will be a success this year even with the schedule. You can't change a culture in one off season. We still have a bunch of soft guys on that roster.

I do agree with the sentiment that we will see improvement throughout the season and this years 5-7 or 6-6 will be much better than this past years.

If all he fixes is the boneheaded pre-snap penalties this year it will be a more enjoyable team to watch. I still don't understand how you manage to start not one but several games with a pre snap delay of game in the first series of plays.

- yes I will melt if we lose NC State

- many on here disagree with you on whether the culture can be changed in an off season. Culture was the best part of this program 2 years ago. It isn’t that far gone.

[HancockCountyDog]

Culture was the best part of this program 2 years ago. It isn’t that far gone.

The best part of the program two years ago was a seasoned OL, a QB built for a run first offense, two high end college RB's, and a defense that had roughly 8 NFL players on it.

You can have the culture - i'll take the talent.

[Scared_Hitless]

Best case this season to me is 8-4 where we improve dramatically I think 6 or 7 is a reasonable goal. If we play with toughness and grit most of the fanbase will be onboard. Leach is walking into a much better situation than Joe did. Joe was destined to fail after he got off the plane talking about ring sizes. I think people are going to be shocked at our toughness and effort. I watched a good bit of Leach film and he fields some gritty teams, effort will be mandatory.

[Johnson85]

- yes I will melt if we lose NC State

- many on here disagree with you on whether the culture can be changed in an off season. Culture was the best part of this program 2 years ago. It isn’t that far gone.

We have 4 "must-win" games to start the season. And the follow that up with 4 almost sure losses. NExt season could get off the rails quickly.

I think we get to 6 because I don't think we would have to be a particularly good team to win 8 depending on how good UK and Mizzou turn out to be. But I think there's a pretty decent chance we are a bad football team to start the season. Just a lot of stuff going on between new offense, still weak receiving corp, replacing defensive players, etc.

But it's really hard to make any predictions with confidence. If none of our qbs pick up the offense, there are probably 6 games we will lose and another two that are losable. If our past recruiting rankings were accurat'ish (I'm thinking we're going to surprise to the downside), we can probably win 8 even without the offense fully clicking. If we have a qb pick it up and our receivers respond to coaching, we might win 8 even with our recruiting rankings overestimating our talent.

[Johnson85]

And here we go again. I was the jackass because I kept saying our coach was JoVester in 2019. Boys- you bout to be disappointed in 2020. We are going to work hard for 6 wins. Will be happy if we get it.

But not as happy as you'll be if you get to come on here and crow I told you so.