Severe weather still looking likely

[starkvegasdawg]

Models continue to show a very potent storm system moving in Friday night and Saturday. Models still disagree on timing. Some have the storms crossing the river around midnight and out of the state by noon and others have storms entering around 6:00am and leaving mid afternoon. Just know this is a very strong system with a lot of shear. Any storm will have a chance to produce a tornado and straight line winds to 70mph. Any storms that form out ahead of the squall line will be in an environment conducive for strong and perhaps long tracked tornadoes. A slower storm system would favor the discrete cells as it would have daytime heating to work with. Below is how Jackson NWS worded it.

From Jackson NWS:

The models are also showing some signals that discrete cell development will be possible immediately ahead of the convective line. These cells will have a strongly sheared and unstable
environment in their favor and could produce some significant severe weather.

[Commercecomet24]

Appreciate your info! What's it looking like for Jones/jasper county area? Thanks again!

[TheLostDawg]

Thanks

[gravedigger]

Models continue to show a very potent storm system moving in Friday night and Saturday. Models still disagree on timing. Some have the storms crossing the river around midnight and out of the state by noon and others have storms entering around 6:00am and leaving mid afternoon. Just know this is a very strong system with a lot of shear. Any storm will have a chance to produce a tornado and straight line winds to 70mph. Any storms that form out ahead of the squall line will be in an environment conducive for strong and perhaps long tracked tornadoes. A slower storm system would favor the discrete cells as it would have daytime heating to work with. Below is how Jackson NWS worded it.

From Jackson NWS:

The models are also showing some signals that discrete cell development will be possible immediately ahead of the convective line. These cells will have a strongly sheared and unstable
environment in their favor and could produce some significant severe weather.

Stay safe my friend and thank you again for the info. You know what I do for a living and you know I use this info to keep my people safe. We will be on the watch.

If you had to guess, where would you start chasing from?

[Dawgology]

What areas of Mississippi are looking to be impacted the most?

[LoneStarDawg]

Thanks for keeping us updated!

[BuckyIsAB****]

WJTV said it would mostly be bad west of Jackson. Yes I watch the evening news wanna fight about it

[starkvegasdawg]

If I was guessing right now I'd say this will be more a central to southern MS event. All of MS will have a high chance of severe weather, but based on current thinking I'm saying the potential for the most significant will be between highways 82 and 84. Where I start chasing from all depends on storm speed. I may start out at 3:00am in a cotton field near Indianola if the system moves in fast. Or it may be 6:00am somewhere around Vaiden or Canton. Just can't determine that right now.

[DownwardDawg]

Bump

I gotta drive the family from Covington county to Nashville on Saturday.

[archdawg]

If I was guessing right now I'd say this will be more a central to southern MS event. All of MS will have a high chance of severe weather, but based on current thinking I'm saying the potential for the most significant will be between highways 82 and 84. Where I start chasing from all depends on storm speed. I may start out at 3:00am in a cotton field near Indianola if the system moves in fast. Or it may be 6:00am somewhere around Vaiden or Canton. Just can't determine that right now.

For those of us in Birmingham - what kind of severity are we expected to see?

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's the latest with a small silver lining possible for those that hate bad weather. Two things look to be working against this system reaching full potential. The first is timing. Latest trends show it reaching the river around midnight and exiting into AL around 1:00 or so. If that holds then it will miss peak daytime heating and instability. Second thing is there may be some early more convection and rain along and near the coast. Crapvection we call it because it basically stops the flow of moisture and instability inland. However, not all is rainbows and unicorn farts. Even assuming these two factors hold constant, a very intense squall line, or QLCS, is expected to be in place and moving through. Widespread damaging winds to 70mph will accompany this line. Wind shear is also very high so there's a good probability of spin up tornadoes that will be embedded within the line. These are typically short and relatively weak...think the tornadoes we had the last few weeks. However, if any discrete cell can form out ahead of this line and sustain itself then it will have a good chance of not only going tornadic, but possibly producing a strong and potentially long track tornado. The odds of this are better if the capping inversion can put a lid on the aforementioned crapvection and if the storm system slows down by even an hour or two. If things remain constant, my plan is to head out around 2:00-3:00am Saturday morning and catch the line over in the delta and then follow it back East.

[DownwardDawg]

Here's the latest with a small silver lining possible for those that hate bad weather. Two things look to be working against this system reaching full potential. The first is timing. Latest trends show it reaching the river around midnight and exiting into AL around 1:00 or so. If that holds then it will miss peak daytime heating and instability. Second thing is there may be some early more convection and rain along and near the coast. Crapvection we call it because it basically stops the flow of moisture and instability inland. However, not all is rainbows and unicorn farts. Even assuming these two factors hold constant, a very intense squall line, or QLCS, is expected to be in place and moving through. Widespread damaging winds to 70mph will accompany this line. Wind shear is also very high so there's a good probability of spin up tornadoes that will be embedded within the line. These are typically short and relatively weak...think the tornadoes we had the last few weeks. However, if any discrete cell can form out ahead of this line and sustain itself then it will have a good chance of not only going tornadic, but possibly producing a strong and potentially long track tornado. The odds of this are better if the capping inversion can put a lid on the aforementioned crapvection and if the storm system slows down by even an hour or two. If things remain constant, my plan is to head out around 2:00-3:00am Saturday morning and catch the line over in the delta and then follow it back East.

This is great, but reading this reminded me of how dumb I am. (headache)

[msbulldog]

Thanks Vegas